Tag Archives: CA-20

Pre-Christmas Poll Favors Schiff & Garvey; Potential New Utah Senate Candidate; Fong Reinstated in California Race

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Jan. 4, 2024

Senate

Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank) / Former baseball great Steve Garvey (R)

California: Pre-Christmas Poll Favors Schiff & Garvey — A new survey, this one from Politico/Morning Consult (Dec. 15-19; 858 likely California jungle primary voters; online with leaners), finds US Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank) posting his largest polling lead over the large multi-party candidate field and is the second to show retired baseball great Steve Garvey (R) claiming second position.

The Morning Consult data records Rep. Schiff at 28 percent and Garvey following with 19 percent. If this trend were to continue, Schiff and Garvey would advance into the post-March 5 general election. US Reps. Katie Porter (D-Irvine) and Barbara Lee (D-Oakland) trail with 17 and 14 percent, respectively. If this poll were the final vote, both Reps. Porter and Lee would be eliminated from further competition.

Utah: Rep. Curtis Poised to Enter Senate Race — Utah political reports are suggesting that four-term US Rep. John Curtis (R-Provo) will imminently join the open US Senate race with the hope of succeeding retiring Sen. Mitt Romney (R). Originally saying he would not run for the Senate, the congressman is apparently on the brink of changing his mind as he sees the candidate field develop.

With several key Republicans such as Gov. Spencer Cox declining to run for the federal post, and no other GOP House member entering to date, Curtis now believes he would have a strong chance of winning the party primary. Looking at the field, the strongest contender appears to be former state House Speaker Brad Wilson. Utah’s candidate filing period expires on Jan. 8, so decisions will now be made quickly.

Should Rep. Curtis run for the Senate, he will likely petition onto the ballot. When he won his special congressional election in 2017, he was not the choice of the local Republican nominating convention but did win the special primary election. Prior to serving in Congress, Rep. Curtis was twice elected as Provo’s mayor.

House

CA-20: Fong Reinstated to Cong Ballot — Reversing the California Secretary of State’s ruling, a California Superior Court judge ruled that state Assemblyman Vincent Fong (R-Bakersfield) can run for the open 20th Congressional District seat that Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Bakersfield) has vacated. Because Fong had filed and been qualified as a candidate for re-election to the assembly, the secretary of state ruled that he could not enter the regular congressional election campaign after McCarthy announced his intention to retire. Fong challenged the administrative ruling and will now become a congressional candidate.

Also in the regular jungle primary are Tulare County Sheriff Mike Bourdeaux, five other Republicans, two Democrats, and two Independents. CA-20, carrying a R+31 rating from the FiveThirtyEight data organization, is the safest Republican seat in California. A special election to fill the balance of the current term should be called now that McCarthy has officially left office.

Independent Candidates Draw More Votes From Biden; CA-20 Top Contender Disqualified; Another House Retirement; North Carolina Candidate Filing Closes

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Dec. 19, 2023

President

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Harvard-Harris Poll: Independents Draw More Votes From Biden — Originally when Robert F. Kennedy Jr. had announced as an Independent for the office of President of the United States, the subsequent early polls found him taking slightly more support from former president Donald Trump than President Joe Biden. Recently, that trend has reversed. The new Harvard University survey that The Harris Poll and HarrisX conducted (Dec. 13-14; 2,034 US registered voters; online) is now typical. They find that Kennedy and the other minor party/independent candidates are apparently siphoning away more support from President Biden than other future potential general election opponents.

In the isolated Biden-Trump ballot test, Trump would lead 52-48 percent. Adding just RFK Jr., the Trump advantage expands to 44-36-20 percent. A third ballot test, that included Biden, Trump, Kennedy, Independent candidate Dr. Cornel West, and likely Green Party nominee Jill Stein, saw a 43-35-17-2-2 percent division.

House

CA-20: Top Contender Disqualified — Because state Assemblyman Vincent Fong (R-Bakersfield) had filed for re-election for that seat, and California’s secretary of state had officially accepted his documents, the state’s chief elections officer ruled on Friday that Fong is ineligible to switch to the open congressional race. Therefore, despite his endorsement from outgoing Congressman Kevin McCarthy (R-Bakersfield), Fong will apparently not be on the congressional ballot.

This leaves the GOP field to Tulare County Sheriff Mike Boudreaux, who is president of the California Sheriffs Association, businessman David Giglio, businessman and former congressional candidate Matt Stoll, and casino owner Kyle Kirkland.

The 20th District is the safest Republican seat in the California delegation. Seeing the all-party jungle primary produce a double Republican general election appears a distinct possibility.

GA-3: Another House Retirement — Georgia US Rep. Drew Ferguson (R-The Rock/ Carrollton) announced on Friday that he will not seek a fifth term in the House, saying that “Georgia is a special place, and it’s calling us home.” Ferguson, first elected in 2016, served two terms as the Republican Chief Deputy Whip and is a member of the House Ways & Means Committee. He averaged 66.9 percent of the vote in his four successful congressional campaigns.

The 3rd District hugs the Alabama border in western Georgia, and lies among the cities of Atlanta, Columbus, and Macon. GA-3 is the third-strongest Republican congressional seat in the Peach State. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the district as R+38, while the Daily Kos Elections statisticians rank the seat as the 51st safest in the Republican Conference. Donald Trump defeated President Biden here 64-34 percent in the 2020 election. Rep. Ferguson’s successor will be decided in the Republican nomination process. GA-3 becomes the 37th open US House seat headed to the next election.

North Carolina: Candidate Filing Closes — The candidate filing period for North Carolina’s March 5 primary closed on Friday, and we now see a slate of contenders in the newly drawn congressional seats. The state also features an open governor’s race, but no US Senate campaign in 2024.

Republicans filed contenders in all 14 Tar Heel State CDs, but two Republicans will run unopposed unless the Democrats can petition a candidate on the ballot. Rep. Greg Murphy (R-Greenville) in the 3rd District and the eventual nominee in the Greensboro anchored 6th (Rep. Kathy Manning-D retiring), saw no Democratic candidate file.

One of the most competitive seats for the general election appears to be District 1, where freshman Rep. Don Davis (D-Snow Hill) sees his new CD yield only a 50-49 percent victory for President Biden in 2020, though Dave’s Redistricting App calculates a slightly more favorable Democratic overall partisan lean, 50.9D – 47.7R. The likely Republican nominee here is former congressional candidate Sandy Smith.

Hotly contested Republican primaries will occur in the open 6th, 8th (Rep. Dan Bishop-R running for attorney general), 10th (Rep. Patrick McHenry-R retiring), 13th (Rep. Wiley Nickel-D retiring), and 14th (Rep. Jeff Jackson-D running for Attorney General) districts. Under North Carolina voting laws, a runoff occurs only if a candidate fails to break 30 percent of the original primary vote.

Trump Tops 50 Percent in Iowa; Leading CA-20 Contender Won’t Run; Tight IA-1 Race; Jackson Lee Registers in TX-18 at Deadline

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Dec. 13, 2023

President

Former President Donald Trump / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Donald Trump: Tops 50 Percent in Iowa — The latest Des Moines Register/NBC News poll (Selzer & Company; Dec. 2-7; 502 likely Iowa Republican Caucus attendees; live interview) sees former President Donald Trump again breaking the majority vote threshold. Selzer & Company, a survey research firm that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as an A+ pollster and consistently described as Iowa’s most accurate research entity, projects Trump to be holding a 51-19-16-5-4 percent advantage over Gov. Ron DeSantis, ex-UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, and ex-New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, respectively.

According to the analysis, this is the largest historical advantage anyone has held for a competitive Iowa Caucus.

House

CA-20: Leading Contender Won’t Run — With Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Bakersfield) resigning his seat before the end of the year, the California candidate filing deadline has been extended five days in this district because the incumbent is not seeking re-election. A surprise occurred Monday, as the potential candidate viewed as having the best chance to succeed McCarthy, state Sen. Shannon Grove (R-Bakersfield) who already represents 91 percent of the 20th Congressional District constituency, announced that she will not run for Congress.

Immediately, state Assemblyman Vincent Fong (R-Bakersfield), who had filed for re-election after announcing he would not run for Congress, now wants to file for the congressional seat. It may be difficult for him to withdraw from the assembly race, however, since his candidacy for the legislature has been officially approved. At the time of this writing, rumors also abound that former Congressman Devin Nunes (R) may also file at the last moment. The filing period ends today, so all questions will be answered at that time.

IA-1: Poll Shows Rep. Miller-Meeks With Close Lead — The US Term Limits organization polled Iowa’s politically marginal southeastern 1st Congressional District (RMG Research; Nov. 28-Dec. 2; 448 likely IA-1 voters; online) and finds Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Le Claire) edging former state representative and 2022 congressional nominee Christina Bohannon (D) by a 38-35 percent margin.

The term limits push question then places Bohannon ahead after the pollsters indicate that the challenger supports limiting terms while the incumbent does not, but this will not likely be a determinative issue for the 2024 election campaign.

TX-18: Rep. Jackson Lee (D) Files for Re-Election — Just two days after losing a landslide runoff election in the Houston mayoral campaign, veteran Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Houston) quickly turned around and filed for re-election to the House. Candidate filing closed Monday in Texas for the 2024 election cycle in preparation for the state’s March 5 primary.

Now, we could potentially see a Democratic primary battle develop. Anticipating the seat would be open if Jackson Lee was elected mayor, five Democrats filed as congressional candidates including former Houston City councilwoman and ex-US Senate candidate Amanda Edwards. It remains to be seen how many of these filed contenders decide to continue to run now that the incumbent has returned.

The 18th District is fully contained within Harris County. The population is 40 percent Hispanic, 34 percent black, and 6 percent Asian. Only 19 percent is recorded as non-Hispanic white. Dave’s Redistricting App’s partisan lead calculation is 73.6D – 24.4R. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates TX-18 as D+43, so winning the Democratic nomination process is tantamount to claiming the seat.

A Ramaswamy Switch to Libertarian Ticket?; Van Drew Won’t Run in NJ; Nunes Rumored to Return; Big Lead in OR-5; Jackson Lee Loses Mayoral Race

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Dec. 12, 2023

President

2024 presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Vivek Ramaswamy: A Libertarian Option? — Political speculation is percolating regarding reports that the national Libertarian Party may be looking toward GOP presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy as their general election presidential nominee.

At this point, Ramaswamy says he is not interested in such an option and plans to continue his quest to top the GOP field. Since he is a long shot to overtake former President Donald Trump and the other candidates currently running ahead of him, the idea of Ramaswamy as the Libertarian Party nominee may soon become a relevant discussion topic.

Senate

New Jersey: Rep. Van Drew Won’t Run — The situation involving indicted Sen. Bob Menendez (D) has brought a great deal of attention to the 2024 New Jersey Senate race. The senator has not yet taken himself out of the discussion for next year’s election, but he will at the very least be seriously challenged for renomination. Both New Jersey First Lady Tammy Murphy and US Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown) are actively running.

One person who will not enter the Senate race, as was announced Friday, is Rep. Jeff Van Drew (R-Dennis Township/Atlantic City). The congressman announced that he won’t become a Senate candidate but will seek re-election as US representative for the people of New Jersey’s 2nd Congressional District.

House

CA-20: Devin Nunes Rumored to Return — Rumors abound in central California that former Congressman Devin Nunes (R) may file for resigning Rep. Kevin McCarthy’s (R-Bakersfield) open seat. Nunes has not denied he is considering making the move. Suggesting that the Nunes rumor has legs, both Assemblymen Devon Mathis (R-Visalia) and Vincent Fong (R-Bakersfield) have declined to run for the congressional seat. State Sen. Shannon Graves (R-Bakersfield), who already represents 89 percent of the overlying congressional district, has yet to say whether she will run.

We won’t have to wait long to see a resolution. Though the 2024 candidate filing deadline was Friday, the period is extended five days when a district incumbent does not file for re-election. This means the CD-20 regular election field will be finalized on Wednesday. Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) will then set the calendar for a special election to fill the balance of the current term.

OR-5: McLeod-Skinner Opens with Big Dem Lead — RMG Research, polling for the US Term Limits organization, conducted a short, small sample survey for Oregon’s 5th District Democratic primary (Nov. 4-17, released Dec. 8; 300 OR-5 likely voters; online). The winner will face freshman Republican Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-Happy Valley). The UST results find 2022 Democratic nominee Jamie McLeod-Skinner leading state Rep. Janelle Bynum (D-Clackamas) and Oregon Metro Council President Lynn Peterson, 41-9-4 percent.

The pollsters concentrated only on the ballot test and asking the respondents about their support for federal term limits. With a small online sample of just 300 individuals, the error factor here is high (5.7 percent). Still, the size of McLeod-Skinner’s lead suggests that she is the favorite for the party nomination and has a major lead in name identification. A competitive general election in this politically marginal congressional district is promised.

Cities

Houston: Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee Loses Mayoral Race By Lopsided Margin — The Houston mayoral runoff was held on Saturday, and state Sen. John Whitmire (D-Houston) easily outpaced US Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Houston), winning by a 64-36 percent margin. Because this is an odd-numbered year race, Rep. Jackson Lee did not have to risk her US House seat. She is now expected to seek re-election next year. Sen. Whitmire, the second-longest serving state legislator in Texas history and the senator with the longest tenure, will leave the legislature to serve the four-year term as chief executive for America’s fourth-largest city.

Trump Nips Biden in New Poll; Close Pennsylvania Senate Race; McCarthy Retirement Talk Rumblings; Hoyer Faces More Opposition

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Oct. 6, 2023

President

Former President Donald Trump / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Pennsylvania: Trumps Nips Biden in New Q-Poll — Quinnipiac University tested the Keystone State electorate (Sept. 28-Oct. 2; 1,725 Pennsylvania adults; 1,470 registered Pennsylvania voters; 759 self-identified Democratic registered voters; 711 self-identified Republican registered voters; live interview) and sees former President Donald Trump moving into a slight lead over President Joe Biden in this critical swing state. The ballot test yields Trump a 47-45 percent edge.

Both candidates have upside-down favorability scores. President Biden registers 39:57 percent favorable to unfavorable. Trump’s index is a similar 40:56 percent. The president’s job approval ratio is 41:55 percent positive to negative. Pennsylvania has 19 electoral votes and is one of the four states (Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin are the others) that will likely decide the presidential campaign’s final outcome.

Senate

Pennsylvania: Q-Poll Shows Close Race — The aforementioned Pennsylvania Quinnipiac Poll (see presidential post above) also tested the state’s budding Senate race between three-term incumbent Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D) and Republican businessman and 2022 Senate candidate David McCormick (R).

Here, we see a closer than expected early result with Sen. Casey holding only a 50-44 percent lead over McCormick. The surprising data point in this survey is McCormick already carrying the Independent voter segment by a percentage point, 45-44 percent.

Sen. Casey holds a 48-31 percent job approval score. With 57 percent of the people saying they need to know more about McCormick, he records a 25:17 percent favorability index. By contrast, Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) holds a strong 53-27 percent job approval rating, but Sen. John Fetterman (D) finds his ratio in upside-down territory at 41:48 percent favorable to unfavorable.

House

CA-20: McCarthy Could Retire — Former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) conceded that he will not again run for his former House speaker position and said he will not resign, but left unanswered whether he will seek another term in Congress. The California candidate filing deadline is Dec. 8 for the March 5, 2024, all-party jungle primary, so the congressman does not have much time to decide. Should he opt for retirement, it is likely that several of the state legislators whose districts overlap his Central Valley CD will enter what would be an open race.

State Sen. Shannon Grove (R-Bakersfield), a former Minority Leader, represents 89 percent of the 20th Congressional District, thus putting her in strong position to be McCarthy’s successor. The state assemblyman with the most overlap is Vince Fong (R-Bakersfield), who represents 58 percent of the McCarthy territory.

CA-20 is the safest Republican district in California with a FiveThirtyEight data organization rating of R+31. The Daily Kos Election site ranks CA-20 as the 146th-safest seat of the 222-member Republican Conference.

MD-5: Dem County Chairman to Oppose Rep. Hoyer — Charles County Democratic Party chair Lenny Proctor earlier this week became the fifth member of Rep. Steny Hoyer’s (D-Mechanicsville) party to announce a primary challenge against the former majority leader, a 44-year congressional veteran who appears primed to seek election to yet another term.

The crowded field, also including Prince Georges County Environmental Director Angela Crooms, public affairs specialist Sean McKelvey, two-time congressional candidate McKayla Wilkes, and Democratic activist Joey Thompson, will split the anti-Hoyer vote, thus allowing him to again win easily.

Hoyer will have little trouble winning the Democratic primary, and then the general election in a district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates at D+28. The Daily Kos Election site ranks MD-5 as the 109th-safest seat of the 213-member Democratic Conference.

Democrats Move Biden Schedule Forward; Warnock Leads in GA Runoff Polling; Duarte Wins Last Outstanding House Race, GOP Majority at 222 Seats; Manchin Not Ruling Out Gov Run

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Dec. 6, 2022

President

Primaries: Democrats Move Biden Schedule Forward — The DNC’s Rules & Bylaws Committee approved President Biden’s suggested alterations for the 2024 primary schedule. This means that South Carolina moves into the first primary position on Feb. 3, 2024. Following on Feb. 6 will be New Hampshire and Nevada. The newcomers to the early group are Georgia, slated for Feb. 13, and Michigan two weeks later on Feb. 27.

Republicans say they will maintain the traditional schedule kicking off with the Iowa Caucus and New Hampshire primary with Nevada and South Carolina following. The New Hampshire Democrats are objecting to being moved from the first primary position and state law allows them to ignore a political party’s rule. Though this is the first definitive step to nomination rules changes, more details must be finalized before any schedule takes effect.

Senate

Georgia: Sen. Warnock Leading in Last Runoff Polling — The Georgia Senate runoff election is today, and the latest two surveys give incumbent Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) a slight lead. Emerson College (polling for The Hill newspaper; Nov. 28-30; 880 likely Georgia runoff election voters; multiple sampling techniques) finds Sen. Warnock clinging to a 51-49 percent edge over former professional football player Herschel Walker (R). Survey USA (polling for television station WXIA in Atlanta; Nov. 26-30; 1,214 Georgia runoff election likely voters; online) sees a similar 50-47 percent spread in the senator’s favor.

Early voting looks even more favorable than the polling. Democratic early voting is up 5.7 percentage points when compared with the 2020 Georgia runoff election. Conversely, Republicans are down 7.3 percent based upon the previous statewide post-election runoff. Heading into today’s vote, Sen. Warnock is the clear favorite.

House

CA-13: John Duarte (R) Wins Last Outstanding Race — The final unresolved House race was called over the weekend, and California Republican John Duarte, an agriculture-related businessman, was projected a 584-vote winner over Democratic state Assemblyman Adam Gray (D-Merced). The win gives the Republicans a 222-213 House majority and provides GOP Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) a much-needed vote for House Speaker, this one from a neighboring district, part of which touches his own CA-20 CD.

The race is officially over even though final numbers have not yet been recorded. Gray conceded the race to Duarte and, since California has no automatic recount law, the outcome is final.

Governor

West Virginia: Sen. Manchin Not Ruling Out Gov Run — Sen. Joe Manchin (D) said over the weekend that he has not made up his mind whether to seek re-election, run for governor, or retire. Sen. Manchin said he will make a decision about the 2024 election after the first of next year.

The interesting part of his statement is acknowledging that another run for governor is an option on his political table. Before winning a special 2010 US Senate election, Manchin served as governor from January 2005 to November of 2010, having won two elections to the state’s top elected post. Early polling suggests he would not fare well in a Senate race against Gov. Jim Justice (R), who is ineligible to seek a third term, and Rep. Alex Mooney (R-Charles Town). This makes West Virginia the top early 2024 election cycle Republican conversion opportunity.

Panetta In; Hanna Challenged

Nov. 20, 2015 — The first person to declare his candidacy in the open Monterey, Calif., congressional district has come forward.

On Friday, veteran California Congressman Sam Farr (D-CA-20) announced he would not seek a 13th term next year, retiring from the House at what will be age 75 when the current term ends.

Prior to Farr winning this California coastal seat in 1993, then-Rep. Leon Panetta represented the region since his original election 16-plus years earlier. Panetta would later serve as President Bill Clinton’s Director of the Office of Management & Budget, and then as White House Chief of Staff. Out of public life for almost 12 years, President Obama brought him back to Washington as Director of the Central Intelligence Agency, and then as Secretary of Defense.

Now, Panetta’s second son, Jimmy Panetta a 43-year-old Monterey County Deputy District Attorney, announced his congressional candidacy yesterday, and will have to be rated a favorite to advance to the general election. The seat’s Democratic nature suggests that two party members could well advance to November.

Continue reading →