Tag Archives: Bernie Moreno

McDaniel Reported Out at RNC; Trump Way Ahead in New Poll; Schiff Helps Garvey; Another Close Ohio Poll; Utah’s Tight Senate Race; House News

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Feb. 8, 2024

President

Ronna McDaniel / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Republican National Committee: Trump Recommends New Chairman — As reports intensify that RNC chair Ronna McDaniel will be leaving the committee after the South Carolina primary, former President Donald Trump has made a replacement recommendation.

The news media is reporting that North Carolina Republican Party chairman Michael Whatley is Trump’s choice largely because he was “so powerful on election fraud” in 2020, according to the ex-president’s statement. It is a virtual certainty that the committee members will adopt Trump’s recommendation, but the question to be asked is how strong a fundraiser is Whatley? While Trump may be most concerned with his election fraud narrative, the RNC is under-performing in the campaign resource battle and must quickly upgrade their efforts.

South Carolina: Trump Way Ahead in New Poll — A new Monmouth University poll for the Washington Post (Jan. 26-30; 815 registered South Carolina voters; live interview & online) sees former President Donald Trump posting a significant 58-32 percent lead over former Gov. Nikki Haley in her home state of South Carolina leading to the Feb. 24 Republican primary election.

Trump holds an advantage among both men and women in the statewide voter sample, and within all age groups. He trails Haley only among college-educated voters, but by only two points, and certain non-evangelical voter groups. Additionally, 90 percent of the respondents saying they would vote for Trump in the primary election would do so in the general election even if he is convicted of some of the many legal charges he faces.

Senate

California: Schiff Helps Garvey — Confident he will finish first in the March 5 open California US Senate primary, Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank) is running ads “against” Republican baseball great Steve Garvey claiming he is too conservative for California in that he twice voted for Donald Trump. In reality, Schiff is attempting to help Garvey finish second in the top two jungle primary, thus eliminating Rep. Katie Porter (D-Irvine), which would allow him to escape having to run a double-Democratic general election.

Having Garvey, or any Republican as an opponent, would virtually guarantee that Schiff would win the seat in November. The ads’ actual purpose is to move more Republicans to Garvey, and thus edge him into second place.

A new University of Southern California for the Center for Urban Politics and Policy at California State University at Long Beach (Jan. 21-29; 1,416 likely Califoria jungle primary voters) survey sees Rep. Schiff holding a 25-15-15-7 percent lead over Garvey and Rep. Porter (D-Irvine). Congresswoman Barbara Lee (D-Oakland) trailed the other major candidates in fourth position. Therefore, a small push from Schiff might just help Garvey succeed.

Ohio: Another Close Poll — The March 19 Ohio Republican primary will be a hugely important election. Among other races, it will decide which GOP candidate will challenge Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) in one of the country’s most compelling statewide campaigns. The Emerson College poll (Jan. 23-25; 1,844 registered Ohio voters; multiple sampling techniques) sees all three Republican candidates coming to within one or two points of Sen. Brown with the incumbent failing to reach 40 percent support in all iterations.

In the Republican primary, the battle is equally close. Businessman Bernie Moreno, who former President Trump and Sen. J.D. Vance support, nips Secretary of State Frank LaRose, 22-21 percent, with state Sen. Matt Dolan (R-Chagrin Falls) trailing with 15 percent. In 2022, Sen. Dolan came on strong at the end, failing to reach second place by one percentage point after lagging during the early part of the campaign. Therefore, the Republican nomination is still very much in doubt.

Ohio features a modified primary system that allows voters to change their registration on the day of the election in order to choose a selected primary.

Utah: Rep. Curtis Begins with Small Lead — Dan Jones & Associates, Utah’s top media polling firm, released a new US Senate Republican primary survey, the first since US Rep. John Curtis (R-Provo) joined the field. The survey (Jan. 16-21; 428 registered Utah Republican voters) finds Rep. Curtis posting a tepid 18-14 percent lead over attorney Brent Orrin Hatch, the son of the late seven-term Sen. Orrin Hatch (R). Following at eight percent is former state House Speaker Brad Wilson. With a majority of the Republican voters still undecided, this contest is wide open.

The state’s April Republican nominating convention will send two candidates to the primary ballot. The others will have to petition for a ballot line. The Utah primary is scheduled for June 25. Sen. Mitt Romney (R) is retiring after one term.
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Ohio’s Moreno Endorsed by Trump;
NJ Polling Battles; Alaska’s Peltola Could Again Get Boost From RCV; Census Projections for 2030

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Dec. 21, 2023

Senate

Ohio Senate candidate Bernie Moreno (R) gets Trump’s endorsement.

Ohio: Trump Makes an Endorsement — As has been expected for several months, former President Donald Trump, the leader for the 2024 GOP presidential nomination, signaled his official support to one of the three major Republican US Senate contenders Monday. While a Survey USA poll earlier in the week (Dec. 8-12; 573 likely Ohio Republican primary voters; online) found businessman Bernie Moreno trailing both Secretary of State Frank LaRose and state Sen. Matt Dolan (R-Chagrin Falls) by a 33-18-12 percent margin, Moreno man did finish in first place for the Trump endorsement. Previously, two other surveys found Moreno holding a slight lead in the primary race.

The Ohio primary is scheduled for March 19, and promises to be a highly competitive nomination campaign. The eventual winner of the plurality election will face three-term Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) in the general election.

New Jersey: Competing Poll Places Rep. Kim First — Though indicted Sen. Bob Menendez (D) for now remains in the 2024 Senate race, the Democratic primary battle appears to be a contest between US Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown) and the state’s First Lady, Tammy Murphy. Approximately a month ago, Public Policy Polling released a survey favoring Murphy for the party nomination by a large 40-21 percent spread.

Rep. Kim released his internal Breakthrough Campaigns survey Monday (Dec. 7-14; 1,004 NJ likely Democratic primary voters; live interview & text) that produced a virtual mirror-like result. This study found Rep. Kim leading Ms. Murphy, 45-22 percent. Sen. Menendez, as was the case in the PPP survey, languishes in single digits. The dueling wide discrepancy polls suggest the statewide Democratic primary will be an interesting one to chart. The New Jersey primary is scheduled for June 4.

House

AK-AL: New Polling Favorable for Rep. Peltola — Once again, Alaska’s Ranked Choice Voting system may re-elect at-large Democratic US Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Bethel) even though more voters select a Republican candidate. Under the state’s primary system, four candidates advance into the general election. If no candidate receives majority support in the November vote, Ranked Choice Voting takes effect.

The Remington Research Group conducted a new poll for Republican candidate Nick Begich III (Dec. 11-14; 672 likely Alaska primary voters; live interview) and the ballot test finds Rep. Peltola attracting 42 percent support. Begich follows in second place with 28 percent. Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom (R) is third with nine percent, while Libertarian Chris Bye, running on the No Labels ballot line, would secure the fourth position with seven percent of the prospective vote. If this were the actual vote totals, RCV would begin with Bye being eliminated and his second choice votes added to the aggregate.

Rep. Peltola has been successful in the Ranked Choice process in both of her elections. In this case, the RCV process would begin because no candidate reached the majority support level.

Census Estimates: Early Reapportionment Projections for 2030 — The Census Bureau released its 2023 population estimates and from that data, extrapolated congressional seat gain and loss estimates for the next census, which is seven years away. Obviously, much can change over that time period, but the projections suggest serious population movement. California appears headed to lose a whopping four seats, while Texas would gain four. The other prospective multi-seat gainer would be Florida at plus-3. Arizona, Georgia, Idaho, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Utah would each gain one seat.

In addition to California, the losing states would include New York (minus-3) and Illinois (minus-2) with Michigan, Minnesota, Oregon, and Pennsylvania losing one seat apiece. Oregon is the biggest surprise in the loser column because they gained a seat in the 2020 reapportionment.

Since these numbers are all long-range projections, the gainers and losers are not equal, which will correct itself once the final apportionment is completed after the next census many years from now.

Garvey Moves Into Second in Calif.; LaRose Widening Lead in Ohio; Decision Looming for Arizona Sheriff; No Rematch in RI-2

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Dec. 20, 2023

Senate

Steve Garvey, former LA Dodgers great

California: Garvey Moves Into Second in New Poll — Survey USA went into the field to test the California electorate in anticipation of the state’s open US Senate primary on Super Tuesday, March 5. As you may remember, California uses an all-party top two primary system that serves as a qualifying election for the November vote. The top two finishers on March 5, regardless of political party affiliation or percentage attained, will advance to the general election. All other candidates will be eliminated from further competition.

This means that at least one Democratic US House member will not advance. The huge field of 53 individuals who filed with California’s secretary of state will be winnowed down (the California SoS is targeting Dec. 28 as the date to have an official list of qualified candidates in all elections) but will still feature a very large ballot.

Three of the contenders who are sure to qualify as Senate candidates are US Reps. Barbara Lee (D-Oakland), Katie Porter (D-Irvine), and Adam Schiff (D-Burbank). Each is attempting to qualify for the general election but at least one will fail. Because the bulk of votes will likely split among these three — relatively evenly, as polling suggests — it is conceivable that a well-known Republican such as baseball great Steve Garvey (R), could capture the second qualifying position in coalescing the minority Republican vote, thus eliminating two of the three House members.

The Survey USA poll (Dec. 7-10; 676 registered California voters; 590 likely voters; online) sees Rep. Schiff leading the large ballot, as he has in most other polls, with 22 percent. S-USA detects the scenario described above in that Garvey is second with 15 percent. Reps. Porter and Lee follow with 12 percent apiece. Democrats will be heavy favorites to hold the open seat that appointed Sen. Laphonza Butler (D) is leaving after replacing the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D), but Garvey sneaking into second place from the jungle primary now appears as a distinct possibility.

Ohio: New Survey Finds LaRose Opening GOP Lead — Survey USA released their latest Ohio US Senate poll (released Dec. 18; no methodology available) and finds a much different result than other recent polls. The last two studies released earlier in the month, from McLaughlin & Associates and Fabrizio Lee & Associates, found businessman Bernie Moreno posting very small (one to two points) Republican primary leads over Secretary of State Frank LaRose and state Sen. Matt Dolan (R-Chagrin Falls).

The S-USA data sees a wholly different result. Here, Secretary LaRose maintains a large 33-18-12 percent advantage over Sen. Dolan and Moreno. We will need more data to gain a better picture of this primary race as the candidates move through January and February to the nomination election on March 19. The Ohio primary is plurality based, meaning the candidate with the most votes, regardless of percentage attained, will win the nomination in this one election. The eventual nominee will then challenge three-term Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) in one of the most important Senate general elections in the 2024 voting cycle.

House

AZ-2: Recruiting Primary Opponent for Rep. Crane — Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb (R) confirms that he is being recruited by unnamed sources to leave the Senate race and turn his political effort toward challenging 2nd District US Rep. Eli Crane (R-Oro Valley/ Flagstaff) in next year’s GOP primary. Crane was one of the eight Republican members who voted to oust then-Speaker Kevin McCarthy.

While Sheriff Lamb may be rejecting such overtures now, candidate filing for the Aug. 6 primary does not end until April 8, so much time remains for him to reverse course. It is probable that Lamb will continue to see the Senate nomination rapidly slipping away. If so, challenging Rep. Crane may eventually prove to be the sheriff’s better political move.

RI-2: No Re-Match — As reported in the Cook Political Report and by the Daily Kos Elections site and as noted in our post yesterday, former Cranston mayor and ex-gubernatorial nominee Allan Fung (R), who held freshman Rhode Island Rep. Ira Magaziner (D-Cranston) to a 50-46 percent win in a 2nd District that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as D+17, will not return to run again in 2024.

Fung is clearly the Republicans’ best possible candidate, so this seat will not be considered a GOP conversion target in 2024 despite the closeness of the most recent campaign. Polling had indicated Fung was in position to score a major upset in 2022 but fell short when the votes were actually counted.

Dems Cancel Florida Presidential Primary; Moreno Leads in Ohio; Trump Turns Against Masters; Menendez Challenged in New Jersey

President Joe Biden / Photo by Gage Skidmore

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Dec. 15, 2023

President

Florida: Dems Cancel Presidential Primary — In what could be the first of several states where the Democratic Party will suspend the presidential primary and award their delegate slate to President Joe Biden, Florida took such action with Wednesday’s announcement. This move is not uncommon for both political parties with an incumbent president seeking re-election. It is used mostly in states where the political party is responsible for financing the party primary. When the incumbent is a sure bet to win the state’s primary, the party suspends the election in order to save the money to use in the general election.

Primary suspension and the awarding of delegate slates to, in this case President Biden, is one of the reasons that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. abandoned his Democratic primary challenge to Biden and instead became an independent presidential candidate.

Senate

Ohio: Moreno Leads in Second Poll — On the heels of last week’s co/efficient poll that posted businessman Bernie Moreno to a slight Ohio Republican US Senate primary lead (15-14-13 percent over Secretary of State Frank LaRose and state Sen. Matt Dolan), the new Fabrizio Lee & Associates survey places Moreno in an even better position. The F&L poll (Dec. 3-5; 600 likely Ohio Republican primary voters; live interview & text) sees Moreno’s lead expanding to 23-19-18 percent over LaRose and Dolan.

Obviously, the Republican nomination is up for grabs and any of these three contenders can still win the March 19 primary. The eventual winner will challenge Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) in one of the country’s most important Senate races.

House

AZ-8: Trump Turns Against Masters — Early this week, former President Donald Trump surprisingly endorsed Abe Hamadeh for the Republican nomination to replace retiring Arizona US Rep. Debbie Lesko (R-Peoria). The move was unexpected because the man Trump supported for US Senate in 2022, Blake Masters, is also in the congressional race. Hamadeh was the 2022 nominee for attorney general, losing the statewide race by just 280 votes from more than 2.5 million ballots cast.

The endorsement could prove pivotal because the eventual Republican nominee will become the strong favorite to win the seat in the general election. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates AZ-8 as R+22. Trump carried the 8th District with a 56-42 percent victory margin in 2020.

NJ-8: Hoboken Mayor to Challenge Rep. Menendez — As expected, Hoboken Mayor Ravi Bhalla officially announced his Democratic primary challenge to freshman New Jersey US Rep. Rob Menendez (D-Jersey City). Since the indictment of the congressman’s father, Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ), Rep. Menendez’s approval numbers had precipitously dropped to where he could be endangered in a race against Mayor Bhalla.

For his part, representatives for a Super PAC associated with his fledgling candidacy say they have already raised $500,000 to support Bhalla’s campaign. Conversely, Rep. Menendez reported a $433,244 cash-on-hand figure in his Sept. 30 Federal Election Commission campaign committee report. Expect this to become a serious nomination challenge. The New Jersey primary is scheduled for June 4.

Trone Leads in NJ Poll; Three-Way Tie in Ohio; Menendez Repercussions; Incumbent Challenge in NY; Early Showdown in Virginia

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Dec. 6, 2023

Senate

Rep. David Trone (D-Potomac)

Maryland: Rep. Trone Leads in New Internal Poll — The Trone for Senate campaign released an internal Hickman Analytics survey (Nov. 27-30; 1,000 likely Maryland Democratic primary voters; live interview) that projects US Rep. David Trone (D-Potomac) to be leading his top primary competitor in the open Senate race, Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks, by a 41-34 percent spread.

Rep. Trone, who is largely self-financing his own campaign, has already spent more than $10 million on his statewide effort. The Hickman poll sample consisted of 50 percent white and 42 percent black voters, which may prove an accurate depiction of the Maryland Democratic primary’s racial composition. On the other hand, the sample was weighted heavily toward females, with women comprising 62 percent of the respondent base. This number will prove too high. The Maryland primary is scheduled for May 14.

Ohio: Virtual Three-Way Tie — A new co/efficient poll for the Bernie Moreno (R) Senate campaign finds the Ohio businessman edging ahead of his two Republican opponents, Secretary of State Frank LaRose and state Sen. Matt Dolan (R-Chagrin Falls). Moreno has gained support with a new ad tying him to former President Donald Trump. Still, with the overwhelming majority of respondents classifying themselves as undecided, and the trio of candidates separated by a total of two percentage points, this Republican primary race appears as a pure three-way tie. The Ohio plurality primary is scheduled for March 19.

House

NJ-8: Rep. Menendez Gains Endorsement, Fares Poorly in Poll — It appears that freshman New Jersey Rep. Rob Menendez (D-Jersey City) is absorbing heavy political baggage from his indicted father, Sen. Bob Menendez (D). While just winning the Hudson County Democratic Party’s endorsement, which houses 72 percent of the 8th District’s population and translates into a very favorable primary ballot position, a new Change Research poll (Nov. 28-12/1; 762 likely NJ-8 Democratic primary voters; online) suggests Rep. Menendez is in trouble for re-nomination.

According to the Change Research results, Rep. Menendez’s favorability index stands at a poor 17:51 percent favorable to unfavorable. In a ballot test with his top Democratic primary opponent, Hoboken Mayor Ravi Bhalla who had already raised $400,000 through the end of September, the congressman posts only a 16-13 percent edge. Clearly, this primary challenge will be a race to monitor throughout the early cycle. The New Jersey plurality primary is scheduled for June 4.

NY-16: County Executive Files Congressional Committee — Another hotly contested Democratic primary battle is beginning. On Monday, Westchester County Executive and former state legislator George Latimer (D) filed a congressional committee with the Federal Election Commission. A formal declaration of candidacy is likely to follow shortly. Latimer will be challenging two-term Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-Yonkers) who himself came to office by denying an incumbent renomination. In 2020, Bowman unseated veteran Democratic Congressman Eliot Engel.

Latimer has been in elective office consecutively since the beginning of 2005. This includes his time as Westchester County Executive, a state senator, and a state assemblyman. He will be able to command financial resources and clearly has a base of support. Westchester County comprises 91 percent of the 16th Congressional District’s population. Rep. Bowman’s base comes from the African American community, which is a quarter of the resident base but accounts for a far greater percentage in the Democratic primary.

Governor

Virginia: An Early Showdown — A year and one-half before the next Virginia gubernatorial primary election, we already have a brewing contest. In mid-November, US Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Glen Allen) announced she would forego re-election to a fourth term in the US House in order to run in the open 2025 governor’s race. Now, Richmond Mayor Levar Stoney has already joined the Democratic primary race with his announcement.

Since Virginia is the only state in the Union that has a one-term limit for its governors, incumbent Republican Glenn Youngkin is ineligible to seek re-election, thus guaranteeing an open contest in 2025.

Poll Shows Presidential Race Tightening; Ohio Senate Race Still a Toss-Up; Big Lead for Mondaire Jones; Gov. Sununu Declines to Run Again

By Jim Ellis — Friday, July 21, 2023

President

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R)

New Hampshire: UNH Poll Shows GOP Race Tightening — A University of New Hampshire Granite State Poll was released during the week (July 13-17; 2,208 registered New Hampshire voters; 898 likely Republican primary voters; 743 likely Democratic primary voters; online), and it shows a tightening of the Republican presidential contest. According to this data, former President Donald Trump’s lead over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has dropped to 37-23 percent. The second tier has also moved up. South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, ex-New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, businessman Vivek Ramaswamy and ex-UN Ambassador Nikki Haley all posted between eight and five percent support.

On the Democratic side, 65 percent of President Joe Biden’s voters say they will vote for him as a write-in if he doesn’t participate in the New Hampshire primary. This would likely be enough for him to beat Robert F. Kennedy Jr, even without the president’s name on the ballot. New Hampshire is not likely to agree with the new Democratic National Committee primary schedule, so Biden may not participate.

Senate

Ohio: New Poll Continues to Show Toss-Up Race — Suffolk University, polling for USA Today (July 9-12; 500 Ohio mostly likely voters; live interview), finds Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) in a dead heat match with newly announced US Senate candidate Frank LaRose (R), Ohio’s Secretary of State. According to the results, the two candidates would each attract 45 percent of the vote. If state Sen. Matt Dolan (R-Chagrin Falls) were the Republican nominee, Sen. Brown would lead 46-43 percent. Should businessman Bernie Moreno win the GOP primary, Sen. Brown’s margin against him in a general election pairing would be 48-41 percent.

The poll tested the Republican primary, but the sample cell is too low (190) to make a definitive judgment. The basic results give LaRose just a 19-14-9 percent edge over Sen. Dolan and Moreno, respectively. A majority of 56 percent, however, said they were undecided. Ohio will be one of the top Senate races in the 2024 general election.

House

NY-17: Ex-Rep Opens with Big Dem Primary Lead — Former US Rep. Mondaire Jones (D), in a comeback attempt in his former Rockland/Westchester County district after losing re-election last year in New York City, released a survey of Democratic voters. The results of the Public Policy Polling study (July 14-15; 570 likely NY-17 Democratic primary voters) gives Jones a strong 43-8 percent ballot test advantage over local school board member Liz Gereghty, who is also the sister of Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D). The Democratic primary winner will face freshman Rep. Mike Lawler (R-Pearl River) in what promises to be a tight general election.

Governor

New Hampshire: Gov. Sununu Won’t Run Again — As expected, four-term Granite State Gov. Chris Sununu (R) announced Wednesday that he will retire when his term ends at the end of next year. Gov. Sununu is only the second chief executive in state history to serve four two-year terms. The other was Democratic Gov. John Lynch, who was in office from 2005 to the beginning of 2013.

Gov. Sununu was first elected in a close 2016 election, but then recorded three successive victories with substantial margins. He briefly considered entering the 2024 presidential campaign before deciding against launching a national effort.

Immediately, former state Senate President Chuck Morse (R), who actually served two days as governor when then-Gov. Maggie Hassan (D) resigned early to be sworn into the Senate, confirmed that he will run. Morse last ran for the Senate in 2022 but suffered a one-point loss in the Republican primary. Ex-US Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R) is also a potential gubernatorial candidate. Previously announced Democratic gubernatorial candidates are Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig and Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington. Expect this open governor’s race to yield a hard fought toss-up campaign.

Projected GOP Presidential Debate Qualifiers; New Senate Candidate in Ohio; Q2 Senate Financials Reported; A Strong CA-9 Candidate Emerges; Indiana Open Gov. Race News

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, July 19, 2023

President

Debate: Projected Qualifiers — USA Today is projecting that six GOP presidential contenders will qualify for the Aug. 23 debate to be aired on FOX News, while another half-dozen may miss the cut. The candidates meeting the polling and donor requirements are, as expected, former President Donald Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. The others are ex-UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, Sen. Tim Scott, and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie.

Those on the cusp of failing to meet the participation requirements are former Vice President Mike Pence, ex-Congressman Will Hurd, Gov. Doug Burgum (R-ND), ex-Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, Miami Mayor Francis Suarez, and commentator Larry Elder.

Senate

Ohio: Sec of State Announces for Senate — As has been long expected, a third major Republican has joined the US Senate primary hoping to advance into the general election to oppose incumbent Sen. Sherrod Brown (D). Frank LaRose was first elected as Ohio’s Secretary of State in 2018 after serving two terms in the Ohio state Senate from the Akron area. He averaged 55 percent of the vote in his two victorious statewide campaigns.

LaRose is the only one of the three GOP candidates – the others being state Sen. Matt Dolan (R-Chagrin Falls) and businessman Bernie Moreno – who has won a statewide race. Sen. Dolan ran for the US Senate in 2022 but lost the Republican primary. Moreno was also in that Senate race but withdrew before voting began seeing no reasonable victory path.

While LaRose is the only statewide official in the race, he begins well behind in the money race. Sen. Dolan has already invested $4 million into his campaign. Moreno reports raising $2.26 million in the 2nd Quarter.

The general election will be difficult since Sen. Brown is a three-term incumbent. The state, however, is significantly more Republican than when the senator last ran in 2018. The ’24 contest is becoming a must-win for the GOP if the party is to capture the Senate majority in the coming election.

Senate Finance: Q2 Dollar Numbers Reported — The 2nd Quarter fundraising numbers have been released, and the 58 reporting Senate candidates in the 34 races attracted a cumulative $91.7 million and have more than $228 million in their campaign accounts. This does not count any money that Super PACs have raised or plan to spend to affect the outcome of the 2024 US Senate electoral contests.

Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas) was technically first in funds raised with $8.63 million, but $2.5 million of that total was transferred from his House committee. Rep. Allred’s potential general election opponent, Sen. Ted Cruz (R), ranked sixth overall but first among Republicans. He attracted $3.35 million in financial support.

California Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank) was the net Q2 fundraising leader, bringing in $8.17 million without any transfers from his House account. He also led the all-important cash-on-hand category with a whopping $29.8 million ready to spend on his Senate campaign. The total amounts raised during this early campaign phase suggest that we can expect another hotly contested campaign season next year.

House

CA-9: Republicans Gain Strong Candidate — Stockton Mayor Kevin Lincoln, a Republican elected in a heavily Democratic city, is reportedly preparing an announcement for Thursday indicating he will forego running for a second term in his present position in order to challenge Rep. Josh Harder (D-Turlock) for the US House seat. Rep. Harder was severely redistricted in the 2021 redraw, but still managed to record a 55-45 percent victory over San Joaquin County Supervisor Tom Patti (R). The congressman had a huge 6:1 advantage in resources, which became a key factor in his re-election victory.

The CA-9 district could be one to watch nationally. Republicans must defeat several sitting Democratic incumbents if they are to hold their small House majority and this northern California seat, that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as D+8, could be on the cusp of becoming a top-tier conversion target.

Governor

Indiana: Newcomer May Enter Open Gov Race — Indiana Secretary of Commerce Brad Chambers (R) announced he will be resigning his position and it is anticipated that he will quickly declare his gubernatorial candidacy.

Though starting well behind the open race’s two front runners for the Republican nomination and the general election, US Sen. Mike Braun and Lt. Gov. Suzanne Crouch, Chambers, who has the financial ability to self-fund his campaign, may soon become the fourth credible candidate in the field. Venture capitalist Eric Doden also has the ability to attract enough resources to propel his candidacy. Incumbent Gov. Eric Holcomb (R) is ineligible to seek a third term. Sen. Braun is foregoing a second term in the Senate to enter the gubernatorial campaign.

Michigan Senate Race Shaping Up; Close Senate Race in Ohio; Potential House Re-Matches in CO-8, NE-2

By Jim Ellis — Monday, July 10, 2023

Senate

Former Michigan Congressman Mike Rogers (R)

Michigan: Ex-Congressman Testing Senate Waters — Former Congressman Mike Rogers (R), who served in the House from 2001 to the beginning of 2015 and chaired the House Intelligence Committee for four years, is reportedly considering entering the open US Senate race.

While Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) is the early favorite for the party nomination and to win the seat, Rogers would probably be the strongest candidate the GOP could field and certainly puts the open seat in play. Other potential Republican candidates are businessman John Tuttle and former US Rep. Peter Meijer. The only announced significant GOP contender is Michigan Board of Education member Nikki Snyder.

While Rep. Slotkin is favored in the Democratic primary, she does have credible opposition. Michigan Board of Education President Pamela Pugh is in the race along with former state Rep. Leslie Love and attorney Jacquise Purifoy. Actor Hill Harper is also expected to announce his candidacy soon.

The Michigan Senate race is now getting more interesting. The seat is open because Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) is retiring after serving what will be four terms.

Ohio: Poll Shows Close Race — The Ohio Senate race will be one of the premier 2024 electoral contests and is considered a must-win for Republicans. Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) seeks a fourth term, but this may be his toughest campaign as the state has shifted considerably to the right since he was last on the ballot in 2018.

East Carolina University recently polled the state (June 21-24; 805 registered Ohio voters; interactive voice response system & online), and their results find Sen. Brown locked in a tight race no matter who becomes the Republican nominee. While slightly leading against all three tested Republicans, he is nowhere near 50 percent in any configuration.

State Sen. Matt Dolan (R-Chagrin Falls), a minority owner of the Cleveland Guardians Major League Baseball club, fares best against Sen. Brown, trailing only 45-44 percent. Businessman Bernie Moreno, despite not having universal name identification, is behind 46-42 percent. Secretary of State Frank LaRose, who is soon expected to become a Senate candidate, would come within 44-42 percent of Sen. Brown. In the Republican primary, LaRose holds a slight 17-14-7 percent lead over Sen. Dolan and Moreno.

House

CO-8: Potential Re-Match — The 8th District of Colorado is the new seat the state gained in national reapportionment and was designed as a politically marginal domain that stretches from the northern Denver suburbs to the city of Greeley. It performed as such last November, as now-Rep. Yadira Caraveo (D-Thornton) scored a close 48.4 – 47.7 percent victory from a voter pool that exceeded 236,000 individuals.

The losing candidate, state Sen. Barbara Kirkmeyer (R-Weld County), is likely to seek a re-match. One candidate who just announced that she will not run again is Thornton Mayor Jan Kulmann. She placed second to Kirkmeyer in the 2022 Republican primary. The 8th District is sure to host another hotly contested congressional campaign in 2024.

NE-2: Re-Match on Tap — Last November, Nebraska state Sen. Tony Vargas (D-Omaha) held Rep. Don Bacon (R-Papillion) to a 51.3 – 48.7 percent re-election victory. As expected, late last week Vargas announced that he will return for a rematch in 2024. Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District is a swing seat that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+3, while Dave’s Redistricting App calculates the partisan lean at 50.1R – 47.1D.

The 2nd also figures prominently in the presidential race. Nebraska is one of two states — Maine being the other — where the congressional districts carry their own electoral vote. In 2020, the 2nd broke with the state and awarded its electoral vote to President Biden as he carried the district with a 52-46 percent margin, or some 22,000-plus votes.

We can expect heavy campaigning here for all races. In addition to the presidential and congressional campaigns, both US Senate seats will be on the ballot. While Sens. Deb Fischer (R) and Pete Ricketts (R) are secure for re-election, this district will be relatively tight even for them.

Christie Making Moves; Davidson Declines to Run in Ohio; Manchin Behind in New WVa Poll; Utah’s Rep. Stewart to Resign

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, June 1, 2023

President

Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R)

Chris Christie: Ex-New Jersey Gov Making Moves to Enter Presidential Race — Published reports are indicating that allies of former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) are forming a Super PAC to aid his budding presidential efforts. After the PAC is formed, it is believed Christie will enter the race within the next two weeks, thus bringing the Republican field to at least seven candidates with another four likely to step forward.

Polling suggests, however, that regardless of the number of entries, only two, former President Donald Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, consistently break into double digits. It is also clear, just as it was in 2016, that the large field helps Trump since he has the strongest base within the Republican primary voter universe.

Senate

Ohio: Rep. Davidson Won’t Run for Senate — Citing the closeness of the House Republican majority through the next election, Ohio Rep. Warren Davidson (R-Troy) announced that he will not join the US Senate race to oppose incumbent Sherrod Brown (D) but will seek re-election to his 8th District House seat. Davidson was first elected in a 2016 special election to replace former House Speaker John Boehner (R).

Though it appeared that Rep. Davidson was preparing to enter the race, he said his decision not to do so was based upon the amount of time that a statewide campaign would take away from his House duties. In the Senate race are state Sen. Matt Dolan (R-Chagrin Falls), a 2022 Senate candidate who is a minority owner of the Cleveland Guardians Major League Baseball Club, and businessman Bernie Moreno, who Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance endorsed last week. Expected to join the campaign next month is GOP Secretary of State Frank LaRose. The Ohio Senate race promises to be one of the most competitive in the nation.

West Virginia: New Poll: Manchin Way Behind — East Carolina University released the results of their new West Virginia political poll (May 22-23; 957 registered West Virginia voters; live interview; interactive voice response system; online) and the ballot test results post Gov. Jim Justice to a major 54-32 percent lead over Sen. Joe Manchin (D). If Rep. Alex Mooney (R-Charles Town) were to win the Republican nomination, he would fall into a toss-up battle with Sen. Manchin, leading 42-41 percent according to this survey.

If these polling results continue, Sen. Manchin may find that running for the office of president on the No Labels Party ticket may be his best political option.

House

UT-2: Rep. Chris Stewart Prepares to Resign — Six-term Utah US Rep. Chris Stewart (R-Farmington), who at one time was thought to be interested in launching a gubernatorial or US Senate campaign, is reportedly preparing to resign from the House possibly by the end of this week. Stewart’s wife’s ongoing health situation is the reason he will be leaving his position.

Gov. Spencer Cox (R) will set the special primary and general election calendar within seven days of Rep. Stewart officially resigning. The 2nd District political parties will first meet in a special district convention to select a candidate. The individual candidate eventually receiving majority support from the voting delegates will advance into the primary.

Other candidates may petition onto the ballot. A general election will then follow. It is probable the special general will be held Nov. 7, 2023, concurrently with municipal elections in the state.

RFK Jr. Formally Announces Run for President; Trump Leads in NH, SC Polls; New Entry in Ohio Senate Race;
House Candidate Activity

By Jim Ellis — Friday, April 21, 2023

President

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.: Formally Announces — The son of former US Attorney General and New York Sen. Robert F. Kennedy officially entered the Democratic presidential primary yesterday. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. gained national attention for his anti-vaccination stance but is unlikely to be a serious threat to President Biden. He could, however, do some damage in New Hampshire and Georgia if the two states don’t adhere to the Democratic National Committee primary schedule, thus likely forcing the president to skip those primaries.

The adjusted DNC schedule bounces New Hampshire from the first primary position and adds Georgia to the pre-Super Tuesday calendar, among other changes. New Hampshire will not easily relinquish its traditional position — and doesn’t have to, because the individual states, and not the political parties, control their own primary election schedule. The Georgia legislature and governor may not approve the schedule because doing so would force the state to finance two primaries, since the Republicans are not adding the Peach State to the pre-Super Tuesday schedule.

New Hampshire: Trump Leading in New Poll — A new University of New Hampshire Granite State poll (April 13-17; 818 likely New Hampshire Republican primary voters; online) sees former President Donald Trump continuing to lead the proposed Republican presidential primary field, while home state Gov. Chris Sununu breaks into double-digits ascending to third place. Trump would lead Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and Gov. Sununu, 42-22-12 percent. No other potential candidate reaches five percent support. On the Republican side, New Hampshire will remain as the first-in-the-nation primary.

South Carolina: Trump Leads Home State Opponents — The recently released National Public Affairs survey (April 11-14; 538 registered South Carolina voters likely to vote in the Republican primary; online & text) finds former President Trump again topping the Palmetto State field with 40 percent of the vote, a full 20 points ahead of DeSantis.

South Carolina candidates Nikki Haley (the state’s former governor), and Sen. Tim Scott, who has filed a presidential exploratory committee, would command 18 and 16 percent, respectively. Though the two still trail badly in their home state, the NPA ballot test posts the South Carolina pair to their strongest showing to date.

Senate

Ohio: Businessman Moreno Joins GOP Race — Buckeye State businessman Bernie Moreno (R), who for a short time was in the 2022 Senate race but dropped out before the first ballots were cast, announced that he will join the 2024 Republican primary with the hope of challenging Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) in the general election. While a candidate in the previous campaign, Moreno spent $4 million of his personal fortune on his political effort.

Currently in the race is state senator and 2022 US Senate candidate Matt Dolan (R-Chagrin Falls) who has already invested $3 million of his own money into the ’24 Senate race. Thus, it appears we have two major self-funders set to battle each other for what should be a valuable GOP nomination in what portends to be one of the hottest general election Senate races in the country.

House

IL-7: Exploratory Committee Filed: — Veteran Illinois Congressman Danny Davis (D-Chicago) was first elected to the US House in 1996 after serving both as a Cook County Commissioner and on the Chicago City Council. Though his district is heavily Democratic and safe from a Republican opponent, Rep. Davis did have a relatively close call in the 2022 Democratic primary when he defeated community organizer Kina Collins by a 52-45 percent count. In 2020, he defeated the same opponent with a 60-13 percent victory margin.

At the age of 81, he is considered a retirement prospect for the 2024 election. That being the case, Chicago City treasurer and former state Rep. Melissa Conyears-Ervin (D) formed a congressional exploratory committee for the 7th District. This is a March 2024 Democratic primary campaign to watch.

IN-3: Former Rep. Stutzman Launches Comeback — Indiana Republican Marlin Stutzman, who served three terms in the US House before losing the 2016 US Senate Republican primary to then-Congressman Todd Young, announced yesterday that he will attempt to reclaim the seat he vacated eight years ago. The race, however, will be no “gimme” for the former congressman and ex-state legislator. Already announced as candidates are state Sen. Andy Zay (R-Huntington) and former Circuit Judge Wendy Davis, among others.

In a district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates R+34, the successor to Rep. Jim Banks (R-Columbia City), who is now running for Senate, will be decided in the May 2024 Republican primary.

MI-10: Another Democrat Surfaces to Challenge Rep. James — A third Democratic candidate came forward to compete for the party nomination to challenge Michigan freshman US Rep. John James (R-Farmington Hills). Emily Busch, a gun control activist and defeated state representative candidate, said she will run for Congress next year. Already in the Democratic primary are attorney Brian Jaye and financial consultant and ex-state representative candidate Diane Young.

It is likely that 2022 nominee and former judge and prosecutor Carl Marlinga will return for a re-match. He will be heavily favored in the Democratic primary, having lost to James by just a half-percentage point. The 10th District 2024 campaign again promises to be highly competitive and is a national Democratic congressional target.