Louisiana’s 6th Congressional District / Graphic by VeriteNews.org
By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Oct. 16, 2025
Redistricting
Yesterday, the nine United States Supreme Court justices heard oral arguments for the second time on the Louisiana racial gerrymandering case. How this case is decided could have a major impact on the 2026 US House election cycle and in district elections throughout the remainder of the current decade.
At issue is Louisiana’s 6th Congressional District (in red on above map), which stretches from Baton Rouge to Shreveport. This CD was put in place before the 2024 election in response to a court order to create a second majority minority district that would elect an African-American Representative. Ironically, this very draw was rejected in a 1994 ruling, but the 2024 map drawers reinstated the same district 30 years later.
A lawsuit was filed over the redraw and the plaintiffs earned a favorable decision from the initial three-judge federal panel constructed to hear the case, but the US Supreme Court stayed the ruling. After briefs and oral arguments were conducted, the high court chose not to rule in June opting for a second round of oral arguments, which were held yesterday.
According to news stories and observations, impressions suggest that several justices appear favorable toward changing the particulars that heretofore have governed the parameters relating to minority district construction. Whether a majority exists to do so and to what extent change may be forthcoming remains unanswered.
The eventual decision could have wide-ranging ramifications to maps in several other states, and not just those where legislators are currently either drawing new districts or contemplating such action.
A SCOTUS decision to uphold the three-judge panel ruling would allow the Louisiana legislature to return to the previous map, or a similar one. That particular map produced a 5R-1D partisan division. The current Louisiana congressional delegation consists of a 4R-2D split.
If the three-judge panel ruling is upheld or expanded upon, the Alabama map would be affected because that state is in virtually the same situation as Louisiana with regard to minority district composition. Such a decision would also virtually eliminate any serious challenge to the new Texas map.
Therefore, with the updated Lone Star State map projected to net Republicans five seats — and should the previously described scenario in Louisiana and Alabama come to fruition and before the 2026 election — the Republicans could net seven seats from the three states. Even if the California redistricting referendum passes and the Democrats net five seats to neutralize the GOP’s Texas gains, the net Republican increase from the four domains would be two. Adding the new completed Missouri map, and the Republicans would see a net three-seat national gain.
Other states in some way, shape, or form considering redistricting either with a special legislative session or when their next regular session begins, or through a court directive are Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Kansas, Nebraska, North Carolina, and Ohio. These could favor Republicans. While Illinois, Maryland, and Utah would likely produce Democratic gains.
Not all of these states will move forward, but should the Supreme Court ruling on the Louisiana case be of a landmark proportion, some of these states and others may then be compelled to follow suit.
Another factor is when SCOTUS rules. Louisiana now has an April partisan primary schedule, so one would think the ruling will be revealed in time for the nomination elections to be conducted as scheduled. A later ruling would suggest that a great deal of the redistricting action will greatly affect the 2028 House election schedule instead of 2026.
We can expect many future political twists and turns in the pending redistricting war, but the catalyst to developing clear district construction criteria lies with the US Supreme Court.
