Category Archives: Primary

Primary Preview:
Missouri, Virginia, and Washington

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, August 4, 2026

In addition to the Michigan primary, which we covered extensively yesterday, three other states, Missouri, Virginia, and Washington, are holding primaries today. Only Virginia features a statewide contest, and even that race is headed for a non‑competitive general election.

>Missouri

The state’s eight congressional campaigns lead the 2026 ballot in the Show Me State. The major primary battles are occurring in Rep. Emanuel Cleaver’s (D‑Kansas City) newly redrawn 5th District and the open 6th District, where Republican voters will choose a successor to retiring Rep. Sam Graves (R‑Tarkio). Additionally, freshman Rep. Wesley Bell (D‑St. Louis) faces a rematch with the woman he defeated in 2024, former US Rep. Cori Bush.

In the St. Louis-anchored 1st District, Rep. Bell is again locked in a tough campaign with former Rep. Bush. Their 2024 contest was bitter, and this year’s race is no different. Bush continues to portray Rep. Bell as aligned with the establishment and too close to Republicans, though the Congressman’s voting record does not support such a claim.

Rep. Bell holds a 3:1 fundraising advantage and is again expected to prevail. The 1st District is now the state’s lone Democratic seat, and it will remain under the party’s control regardless of who wins tonight’s nomination.

In the St. Louis suburban 2nd District, veteran US Rep. Ann Wagner (R‑Ballwin) and Democratic retired Army officer Fred Wellman both appear to be facing only minor opposition for their respective nominations. With a partisan lean of 54.5R – 43.2D (Dave’s Redistricting App), Rep. Wagner has the inside track for November, though Democrats are still expected to invest heavily to support Wellman.

The newly drawn 5th Congressional District was the focal point of Missouri’s 2026 redistricting plan. Its partisan lean shifts from 60.8D – 35.9R to 56.6R – 41.1D, making a Republican victory in November highly likely and placing Rep. Cleaver at serious political risk. This seat is central to GOP hopes of protecting their slim House majority. Six Republicans are competing for the nomination, and three appear viable.

Rep. Graves is retiring after 26 years in Congress and eight years in the Missouri legislature. Tonight’s GOP primary will determine his successor. He has endorsed radio talk show host Chris Stigall, one of five Republicans on the ballot. Stigall’s strongest competitors are Kansas City Councilman Nathan Willett and businessman Nathanael Schultz.

Virginia

Sen. Mark Warner (D) is on the ballot for what he says will be the final time. When announcing his 2026 re‑election bid, Warner stated that he intends to retire when the next term ends in early 2033. He is unopposed for renomination, and none of the six Republicans running appear positioned to mount a strong general‑election challenge.

Virginia’s redistricting referendum, despite passing, was nullified in court after judges ruled that the Democratic legislature and Governor violated state constitutional requirements by rushing the measure to the ballot. Lawmakers plan to return with a new referendum in 2027, to run concurrently with the state House and Senate elections. For 2026, the 2021 map remains in effect.

Rep. Rob Wittman’s (R‑Montrose) 1st District is the second‑weakest pro‑Trump seat in the state, though the President still carried the district with a five-point margin. Rep. Wittman’s likely opponent is Henrico County Commonwealth’s Attorney and 2025 Attorney General candidate Shannon Taylor, who is favored to emerge from her five‑candidate Democratic field. She is expected to run a strong general election campaign, though Rep. Wittman remains favored for 2026. He will, however, be a top target when the 2027 redistricting map is drawn.

In the Virginia Beach-anchored 2nd District, where President Trump narrowly prevailed over Kamala Harris in 2024, Rep. Jen Kiggans (R‑Virginia Beach) is seeking a third term. Her opponent will be former Congresswoman Elaine Luria (D), whom she unseated in 2022. The general election promises to be intense and highly competitive meaning it should be considered a toss‑up all the way to Election Day.

For a time, it appeared former Rep. Bob Good would return to challenge freshman Rep. John McGuire (R‑Manakin‑Sabot) in the mid‑state 5th District. Good ultimately declined, leaving Rep. McGuire unopposed in the Republican primary.

The general election, however, features a formidable Democratic candidate: former Rep. Tom Perriello. He would likely have been favored under the new map, so his decision to continue running after the referendum was struck down suggests he may be positioning himself for 2028, when district lines are expected to be more favorable for a Democratic candidate.

In the Alexandria/Arlington-anchored 8th District, veteran Rep. Don Beyer (D‑Alexandria) faces four Democratic challengers in a moderately competitive primary. Rep. Beyer remains a strong favorite, but the candidates may also be positioning themselves for a potential 2028 open seat. Rep. Beyer will be 78 years old at the time of the next election and will be widely viewed as a retirement possibility.

Washington

Washington is one of four states – Alaska, California, and Louisiana are the others – that use a jungle primary format. As a result, voters will not select partisan nominees tonight. Instead, the top two finishers, regardless of party or vote percentage, will advance to the general election.

The most competitive contests are in southwest District 3, where Democratic Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D‑Skamania County) is attempting to win a third term in a Republican‑leaning district; the open 4th District; and the Spokane‑anchored 5th District.

With resigned Trump appointee Joe Kent not returning for a third attempt in the 3rd CD, Republicans have an opportunity to field a stronger challenger. That candidate is state Senate Minority Leader and retired Navy Captain John Braun (R‑Chehalis), who has led in jungle primary polling. Should Sen. Braun qualify for November, as appears likely, Rep. Perez will face her toughest campaign yet in a seat that is rapidly becoming a must‑win Republican target.

In central Washington District 4, Rep. Dan Newhouse (R‑Sunnyside) is retiring, leaving six Republicans, one Democrat, and four Independents competing for the seat.

Historically, this district has set the precedent of sending two Republicans to the general election, but with only one Democrat on the ballot, retired Air Force officer John Duresky, the chances of his advancing have substantially improved. Republicans are still very likely to hold the seat, potentially with state Sen. Matt Boehnke (R‑Kennewick), though a first‑place finish for Duresky tonight is not out of the question.

In District 5, freshman Rep. Mike Baumgartner (R‑Spokane) is favored for re‑election. The remaining question is whom he will face in November: one of the six Democrats running or one of four Independents. Democrat Carmela Conroy and Independent Nate Powell both have strong prospects of securing the second ballot position needed to challenge the Congressman.

Michigan Primary Preview

By Jim Ellis — Monday, August 3, 2026

Primary

This week, six states are holding their 2026 primary elections, but none is more active than tomorrow’s Michigan nomination contests.

Today, we highlight the Wolverine State’s key races. Tomorrow, we will preview the Aug. 4 primaries in Missouri, Washington, and Virginia. On Thursday, Aug. 6, Tennessee voters choose their nominees, and on Saturday, Aug. 9, Hawaii follows.

The marquee Michigan race is the Democratic US Senate primary. Former Wayne County Health/Human/Veterans Department director Abdul El‑Sayed faces Congresswoman Haley Stevens (D‑Birmingham).

Although Democratic leaders have rallied around Stevens since state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D‑Royal Oak) exited the race in early July, El‑Sayed holds a commanding advantage in public polling. Across the last eight publicly released surveys, from eight different pollsters, El‑Sayed’s average lead is 14.9 percentage points.

Tomorrow’s winner faces former US Representative and 2024 US Senate nominee Mike Rogers, who is virtually unencumbered in the Republican primary.

The gubernatorial primaries are less dramatic. On the Democratic side, Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson is the clear favorite and is expected to cruise to the nomination.

For Republicans, Congressman John James (R‑Farmington Hills), who previously ran two close statewide races, leads businessman and frequent candidate Perry Johnson. A Benson-James general election matchup is the anticipated outcome. Former Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan had previously launched an Independent bid that would have created an intriguing three‑way race, but he suspended his campaign in late May.

Michigan also features a full slate of competitive congressional primaries. In the 4th District, where Congressman Bill Huizenga (R‑Holland) faces a competitive general election, Democratic state Sen. Sean McCann (D‑Kalamazoo) is likely to prevail with his party’s nomination, setting up what promises to be a closely watched November contest.

The 7th CD is likely to host the fiercest campaign in the delegation. Freshman Congressman Tom Barrett (R‑Charlotte/ Lansing) will defend his seat against one of three Democratic contenders: political organizer William Lawrence, retired Navy SEAL Matt Maasdam, and former Ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink.

The 8th District will also be competitive. Freshman Bay City Democrat Kristin MacDonald Rivet seeks a second term and is unopposed in the Democratic primary. Republicans have a three‑way contest, with former US Postal Service Inspector and Navy veteran Amir Hassan, who has raised roughly $800,000 and holds President Trump’s endorsement, favored to win. Rep. Rivet remains the favorite for re‑election, though GOP efforts may intensify after the primary.

The open 10th District promises a highly contested general election. Congressman James is vacating the seat to run for Governor, having twice won close races in this politically swing district. The leading Republican is Mike Bouchard Jr., son of longtime Oakland County Sheriff and former statewide nominee Michael Bouchard, Sr.

With strong name recognition, Bouchard Jr. is expected to win the GOP nomination. He will face one of three Democratic candidates: former US Commerce Department official Eric Chung, Pontiac Mayor Tim Greimel, and ex-Macomb County local office nominee Christina Hines who has led in several polls.

In District 11, which Congresswoman Stevens is vacating to run for the Senate, the decisive contest is the Democratic primary; therefore, tomorrow’s winner will claim the seat in November. State Senate President Pro Tempore Jeremy Moss (D-Southfield) is favored over three opponents.

District 13, anchored in Detroit, again features Congressman Shri Thanedar (D‑Detroit) facing a Democratic primary battle. Rep. Thanedar is seeking a third term, and his principal challenger is state Representative Donovan McKinney (D‑Detroit). Detroit City Councilwoman Mary Waters failed to qualify for the ballot due to insufficient petition signatures but is running as a write‑in candidate. The Thanedar-McKinney contest will be close, with the winner headed to Washington after November.

As these races illustrate, Michigan’s election card is full, and tomorrow night’s coverage will be extensive with the Democratic Senate primary as the headline attraction.

South Carolina Senate Special
Election Candidate Filing Closes

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, July 30, 2026

Senate

Candidate filing closed yesterday for the South Carolina special Republican Senate primary, and no fewer than eight individuals filed to challenge appointed Sen. Darline Graham despite her carrying President Trump’s endorsement.

The death of Sen. Lindsey Graham earlier this month required state Republican leaders to schedule a quick special election to replace him on the ballot. The primary will be held Tuesday, Aug. 11. If no candidate receives a majority, the top two finishers will advance to an Aug. 25 runoff.

The headline challengers are two sitting US House members: Rep. Ralph Norman (R‑Rock Hill), who finished a distant third in June’s gubernatorial primary, and Rep. Russell Fry (R‑Murrell’s Inlet/Myrtle Beach).

Other notable entrants include former Myrtle Beach Mayor and ex‑City Councilman Mark McBride – an unwelcome development for Rep. Fry, since McBride is likely to siphon votes from the northeastern South Carolina region – and wealthy businessman Mark Lynch, who drew 29 percent in his June primary challenge to Lindsey Graham. Former Governor and Congressman Mark Sanford, who considered entering the 1st District regular primary but ultimately did not, also filed for the Senate special.

Three apparent also-ran candidates also filed: former Waterboro City Councilman Duke Buckner, businesswoman Glenda Gail Parker, and biochemical engineer Sam Shepherd.

This crowded field makes it unlikely that any candidate, including Sen. Graham, will reach the 50 percent threshold. The most probable runoff scenario involves two of the three leading contenders – Sen. Graham, Rep. Norman, and Rep. Fry. Should Graham fail to win outright, she would enter the runoff at a disadvantage, since a majority of voters would have already chosen someone else.

Historically, family members of deceased officeholders often perform well in replacement elections, though Democratic family members typically perform better than Republicans.

In terms of campaign resources, Rep. Norman is independently wealthy and capable of quickly self‑funding at a seven‑figure level. Rep. Fry has roughly $1 million in his House campaign account that can be transferred to a Senate committee. Sen. Graham must raise funds into a new federal committee, but a supportive Super PAC has indicated it is prepared to spend $1.5 million on her behalf. Lynch, who spent more than $5 million on his unsuccessful June challenge, is also well‑financed and capable of again investing heavily, this time in a short‑term race.

Turnout will be key, as is typical in special elections. In June, 464,709 voters participated in the regular Senate primary, and it is likely that considerably fewer will cast ballots in the Aug. 11 special primary.

Lindsey Graham received 264,091 votes in securing his 57 percent primary win, giving the late Senator’s sister a substantial Graham‑aligned vote base from which to begin assembling a victory coalition. In the regular Senate primary, Mark Lynch drew 134,360 votes, and in the Republican gubernatorial primary, Rep. Ralph Norman received 80,790 votes.

With at least these three candidates capable of attracting significant support, the Aug. 11 primary is poised to be highly competitive, increasing the likelihood that the nomination will not be decided until the Aug. 25 runoff.

The eventual Republican nominee will be favored in November against Democratic nominee Annie Andrews, given South Carolina’s strong Republican voting history. It remains to be seen which of the major contenders will ultimately secure the nomination.

Polling: Appointed Sen. Darlene
Graham No Cinch to Last Full Term

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, June 23, 2026.

US Senate

There has been some question as to whether the announced South Carolina special election Senate Republican candidates would reconsider their plans now that appointed Sen. Darline Graham has decided to run for the full six-year term. Two new polls may have just provided early answers.

With the July 28 candidate filing deadline approaching, two new surveys suggest that Reps. Ralph Norman (R Rock Hill) and Russell Fry (R Murrell’s Inlet/Myrtle Beach), along with businessman Mark Lynch, have little incentive to withdraw. Contrary to early assumptions, Sen. Darline Graham apparently does not begin the race with a clear advantage.

The new polling, conducted by Peak Insights (July 18–20; 900 likely Republican special primary voters; live interview & text) and Innovative Communication Strategies (July 20-21; 788 likely Republican special primary voters; text to web), indicates that another individual – one not currently running – holds the early lead.

Peak Insights finds former Congressman and Fox News host Trey Gowdy holding a 38 percent preference figure, well ahead of Rep. Norman at 13 percent, and Rep. Fry and Sen. Graham (listed on the survey questionnaire as Darline Graham Nardone) tied with nine percent. Lynch follows with seven percent support. ICS did not test Gowdy; without him in the field, their results show Rep. Norman holding a 19-16-12-9 percent edge over Sen. Graham (also listed as Darline Graham Nardone on the survey questionnaire), Rep. Fry, and Lynch.

Gowdy’s strength is notable given that he has made no visible move toward entering the race. Sen. Tim Scott (R), now the state’s senior Senator, has publicly argued – prior to Sen. Graham’s announcement – that Gowdy would be the strongest possible Republican nominee. The Peak Insights data suggests that the Senator’s assessment is correct.

Another central question in what now appears to be a competitive contest is campaign finance. Sen. Graham begins with no funds, as she must form a new federal campaign committee. Only $2,000 from Lindsey Graham’s account could be transferred to her campaign, assuming the committee treasurer has authority to make disbursements following the principal’s death.

Rep. Fry is in the strongest financial position: his June 30 FEC report shows $1.04 million available for transfer to a Senate committee. Rep. Norman reports $90,314 cash on hand but he has substantial personal wealth and could quickly self fund. Lynch, who challenged Sen. Lindsey Graham in this year’s regular primary, retains more than $568,000 cash on hand after loaning his campaign over $5 million.

Among the major contenders, Sen. Graham is therefore at the greatest financial disadvantage, and the compressed timeline makes lightning-fast fundraising difficult. A supportive Super PAC could intervene on her behalf, and given her endorsement from President Trump, such an effort is plausible. If her campaign can assemble an operational structure – likely with significant assistance from Lindsey Graham’s former political staff – she will be able to communicate the Trump endorsement, which has been a decisive asset in almost all Republican primaries.

The key question is whether a newly formed Graham campaign, even with Trump’s backing, can win outright on Aug. 11. If these polls are reasonably accurate – and both point to similar conclusions about Sen. Graham’s early standing – it appears unlikely that any candidate will reach a majority.

Based upon current information, the Aug. 11 primary is likely to force a runoff on Aug. 25 between the top two finishers. In a head-to-head contest between Sen. Graham and either Rep. Norman or Rep. Fry, the available data suggests that the result is uncertain.

Biggs Wins Primary for Governor; Other Arizona Results

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, July 22, 2026

Five-term Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Gilbert), as polling correctly predicted, easily won the Arizona Republican gubernatorial primary last night defeating fellow Rep. David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills) with more than 70 percent of the vote. Rep. Biggs will now challenge Gov. Katie Hobbs who faced no opposition in her Democratic primary.

With Arizona becoming politically purple, we can again expect another close Governor’s race result. In 2022, Hobbs, then Arizona’s Secretary of State, won a razor-thin 50.3 – 49.6 percent victory over Republican Kari Lake.

Arizona has no Senate election this year, and at least three of the state’s nine House races will be highly competitive in November.

AZ-1 – Open Seat

On the Republican side, former NFL placekicker Jay Feeley – boosted by President Trump’s endorsement – defeated state Rep. Joseph Chaplik (R Scottsdale) and technology company executive John Trobough. When all the votes are counted, Feeley will garner approximately 50 percent of the party vote.

While a large portion of the Democratic establishment was lining up behind former news anchor Marlene Galan Woods, even though Dr. Amish Shah defeated in her in the 2024 Democratic primary and held incumbent David Schweikert to a four-point victory margin in the general election, it will again be Dr. Shah advancing into the general election. The final vote count projection suggests that Dr. Shah will attract in the neighborhood of 42 percent support opposite three other Democratic candidates.

Expect another tight 1st District race to unfold in the general election cycle.

AZ-5 – Open Seat

The other major Republican primary comes in Rep. Biggs’s open congressional district race. Former Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb shook off a sex scandal to defeat Chandler construction company owner Daniel Keenan with 58 percent of the vote at this writing.

The 5th District is safely Republican, so Lamb should easily top the new Democratic nominee, nurse Elizabeth Lee, who recorded a landslide victory over her two opponents.

General Election Competition

Aside from the competitive Governor’s race and other statewide campaigns, at least three GOP-held congressional districts are going to draw a great deal of national attention.

The 1st District, as covered above, promises to remain in toss-up mode all the way to election day. Republicans have a small edge in voting history, but the 1st District could easily slip to the Democrats in November. Expect an expensive and hard-hitting campaign to dominate the Phoenix metro political airwaves. Republicans performing better than Democrats in the primary turnout battle will also boost the new GOP nominee, Feeley.

In the northeastern 2nd District, expect both second-term incumbent Eli Crane (R-Oro Valley) and former Navajo Nation president and 2022 congressional nominee Jonathan Nez to again wage strong and expensive campaigns. Rep. Crane won the 2024 version of this contest with a 55-45 percent victory, but the rematch will likely be closer. Rep. Crane, however, still remains the favorite.

From the Phoenix-anchored 4th District, four-term Rep. Greg Stanton (D-Phoenix) was an easy 68 percent Democratic primary winner last night and will have little trouble winning a fifth term in November.

The southeastern 6th CD will feature a bare majority winner as two-term Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R-Tucson) again faces a difficult re-election campaign in a politically marginal congressional district. His 2026 opponent will be retired Marine Corps Sgt. JoAnna Mendoza (D) who will attempt to flip the seat to the Democratic column. Both Rep. Ciscomani and Mendoza were unopposed in yesterday’s primary. Like the 1st District, this campaign will be in toss-up mode until the final vote is tabulated.

In the remaining districts, Reps. Yasamin Ansari (D-Phoenix), Adelita Grijalva (D-Tucson), Abe Hamadeh (R-Phoenix), and Paul Gosar (R-Bullhead City) will all coast to re-election in November.

Arizona Primary Preview

By Jim Ellis — Monday, July 20, 2026

Beginning with this election cycle, Arizona has permanently shifted its primary from early August to late July; therefore, tomorrow marks the close of the state’s 2026 primary voting period.

Tomorrow’s election features a Republican gubernatorial contest where the winner will challenge Gov. Katie Hobbs (D). Congressional Districts 1, 2, 5, and 6 also host major action.

Each race synopsis below begins with listing the Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean calculation and the 2024 election result.

Governor – Katie Hobbs
DRA Partisan Lean – State of Arizona – 50.1R – 47.9D
• 2022 Governor Result: Hobbs: 50.3 – 49.6 percent

Gov. Hobbs is unopposed in the Democratic primary, while the Republican side features four candidates. The GOP battle, however, appears to be a runaway for Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Gilbert) who holds a commanding advantage over Rep. David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills) and two minor candidates.

The most recent poll, from Next Gen P (July 8-9; 1,707 likely Arizona Republican primary voters; online), sees Rep. Biggs leading Rep. Schweikert by a lopsided 66-10 percent margin. The polling averages similarly find Biggs holding an average 48-point lead when paired with Rep. Schweikert.

For the general election, another close result is expected.

AZ-1 – Open Seat

DRA Partisan Lean: 50.9R – 47.5D
• 2024 Congressional Result: Rep. Schweikert: 51.9 – 48.1 percent

The 1st District contest is the marquee primary for both parties, with each featuring a highly competitive nomination battle. On the Republican side, former NFL placekicker Jay Feeley – boosted by President Trump’s endorsement – appears to be the favorite. Feeley has been outspent, however. According to the June 30th Federal Election Commission disclosure report, he has expended just over $1.7 million in his campaign, while self funding businessman John Trobrough has spent slightly more than $3.3 million. State Rep. Joseph Chaplik’s (R Scottsdale) disclosure reveals expenditures of just over $475,000, yet he held the early polling advantage.

Democrats are also facing a competitive race. Somewhat unexpectedly, party leaders are coalescing around former news anchor Marlene Galan Woods, even though Dr. Amish Shah defeated her in the 2024 primary and then came within two percentage points of unseating Rep. Schweikert. Galan Woods has slightly outspent Dr. Shah in this campaign, $1.6 million to $1.4 million.

AZ-2 – Rep. Eli Crane

DRA Partisan Lean: 53.3R – 44.4D
• 2024 Congressional Result: Rep. Crane: 54.5 – 45.5 percent

This year’s 2nd District general election will feature a rematch between Rep. Crane, who is seeking a third term, and Jonathan Nez, the 2024 Democratic nominee and former Navajo Nation president. Both candidates are unopposed in their respective primaries.

The 2026 campaign is likely to be even more robust than their 2024 contest, when the two combined for more than $12 million in spending. According to the June 30 Federal Election Commission financial disclosure reports, Rep. Crane and Nez have again raised substantial sums and currently hold $2.8 million and $1.9 million in their campaign accounts, respectively. The race is expected to be competitive, continuing the intensity of their prior matchup.

AZ-5 – Open Seat

DRA Partisan Lean: 58.5R – 39.6D
• 2024 Congressional Result: Rep. Biggs: 60.4 – 39.6 percent

Rep. Andy Biggs’s gubernatorial run has left this safe Republican seat open, producing a primary that initially featured 1st District candidate Jay Feeley and former Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb. Feeley’s move to the 1st District, after trailing Lamb badly in early polling, appeared to leave the former Sheriff in control of the race. A sexual oriented scandal, however, has significantly damaged Lamb, who nonetheless retains former President Trump’s endorsement.

Chandler construction company owner Daniel Keenan has mounted a credible, self funded challenge, outspending Lamb $1.6 million to just under $1 million. Keenan has leaned heavily on the Lamb scandal in his campaign messaging.

Recent polling shows a major split: Remington Research Group (July 5-7; 650 likely Republican primary voters) finds Keenan edging ahead of Lamb, 42-40 percent, suggesting a toss-up race rating. Pulse Decision Science (June 29-July 1; 400 likely Republican primary voters), however, reports a very different picture, placing Lamb at a dominant 61-27 percent advantage.

This has become one of the election cycle’s more intriguing Republican primaries. Tomorrow’s winner will be well positioned for the general election.

AZ-6 – Rep. Juan Ciscomani

DRA Partisan Lean: 50.9R – 47.1D
• 2024 Congressional Result: Rep. Ciscomani: 50.0 – 47.5 percent

Both party nominations are settled, as Rep. Ciscomani and retired Marine Corps veteran JoAnna Mendoza are unopposed for the Republican and Democratic nominations, respectively. Since the 2021 Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission members drew the new 6th District, the area has consistently produced highly competitive general election results.

The 2026 Ciscomani–Mendoza rematch is expected to continue the close-election pattern. The Tucson-anchored AZ-6 race is again positioned to become a nationally watched contest that will attract substantial outside support for both candidates. Another hard fought campaign appears likely, with a close finish again expected.

Colorado Primary Results:
Sen. Bennet & Rep. DeGette Lose

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, July 1, 2026

Colorado

Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet (D) / Photo by Gage Skidmore, Flickr

What once appeared as a virtual sure bet for Sen. Michael Bennet to be elected Governor turned to defeat last night, and the result wasn’t close; and with pre-election polling trends running against 15-term Rep. Diana DeGette (D-Denver), she too became another incumbent loss statistic.

Sen. Bennet will continue in his present position. Because his seat was not in-cycle this year – it next comes before the voters in 2028 – the loss does not cost the Senator his political career. His 2028 situation, should he choose to seek re-election as Senator, would certainly make him more vulnerable in a new Democratic primary, however.

The Governor’s race should not be considered a Democratic Socialist win. While Attorney General Phil Weiser, who beat Sen. Bennet 56-44 percent, is certainly on the ideological left, he did not campaign as a socialist. Rather, he won this campaign by simply being the better candidate and very likely outworking Sen. Bennet, who still had to spend considerable campaign time in Washington doing his present job.

Weiser, who won two statewide races as Attorney General but was term-limited in 2026, has a compelling story in that his mother was born in a concentration camp during WWII because his grandmother was being held as a prisoner of the Nazi regime. Furthermore, with a political party moving closer toward the Palestinian coalition and away from Israel, Weiser highlighted his Jewish heritage and still won going away. Therefore, this incumbent defeat is not like most of the others we’ve seen this year but is another indication that perceived establishment candidates are doing poorly.

Rep. Diana DeGette (D-Denver)

In Denver’s 1st Congressional District, Rep. DeGette suffered a 51-42 percent defeat at the hands of 29-year-old Democratic Socialist Melat Kiros. Polling showed DeGette trailing, and she qualified for the ballot by only eight delegate votes at the 1st District nominating convention. Each clue revealed Rep. DeGette’s weakness in campaigning for renomination. Conversely, at the district nominating convention, Kiros attracted almost 70 percent of the delegate votes.

There are now seven House incumbents and two Senators who have been denied renomination. Now, added to these numbers, we have a sitting multi-term Senator running in an open Governor’s race who fails to claim his party’s nomination.

Of the seven, five – now including DeGette – are Democrats. The others are Reps. Al Green (D-TX), Julie Johnson (D-TX), Dan Goldman (D-NY) and Adriano Espaillat (D-NY). The Republicans are Reps. Dan Crenshaw (R-TX) and Thomas Massie (R-KY).

Democratic Socialists are responsible for three of the defeats: Reps. DeGette, Goldman, and Espaillat.

Al Green attempts to blame his loss on a new redistricting map, but the overwhelming majority of the new 18th District constituency carried over from his own district, suggesting the new district boundaries were not the principal reason for his losing to recently elected Congressman Christian Menefee, 68-32 percent.

In the case of freshman Rep. Johnson, redistricting was a major factor in her losing to former Congressman Colin Allred, since her 32nd District was transformed into a Republican seat, thus forcing her to seek re-election in the newly drawn 33rd District.

On the Republican side, Rep. Crenshaw’s loss in his Harris County-anchored CD began the string of incumbent losses. Rep. Massie, likely the most well-known nationally of the defeated Representatives, lost because of his feud with President Trump; this was also the case with Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA). Being tabbed by Trump as the most anti-Trump Republican Congressman led to Massie suffering a 55-45 percent loss in a district that he had won seven times.

Turning back to Colorado, Sen. John Hickenlooper (D) was renominated in his campaign, but with only a 55-45 percent margin against another Democratic Socialist candidate, state Sen. Julie Gonzalez (D-Denver), who he outspent by an 8:1 ratio.

In the 3rd Congressional District, freshman Rep. Jeff Hurd (R-Grand Junction) scored a lopsided 67-33 percent victory over former state Rep. Ron Hanks. The general election looks to be competitive as Rep. Hurd will face Real Estate company CEO Dwayne Romero, who last night defeated venture capitalist Alex Kirloff even though the latter man had a huge spending advantage.

In what promises to be a very close 8th District general election, state Rep. Manny Rutinel (D-Commerce City) won the right to challenge freshman Rep. Gabe Evans (R-Ft. Lupton/Thornton). The Rutinel victory margin of 61-34 percent over former state Rep. Shannon Bird was much more substantial than predicted.

Pivotal Colorado Primary Today

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, June 30, 2026

Primary

Polling suggests that today’s Colorado Democratic gubernatorial primary could produce another major upset. Surveys indicate a surprisingly close contest between Sen. Michael Bennet and Attorney General Phil Weiser.

When Sen. Bennet entered the Governor’s race – without having to risk his Senate seat – several competitive candidates withdrew, assuming he would be difficult to defeat in a statewide primary. The one officeholder who remained was term‑limited Attorney General Weiser, and current polling indicates that Sen. Bennet losing tonight is a realistic possibility.

Recent primary and runoff polling around the country has been inconsistent. For example, a Wedgewood Polls survey of the Louisiana Republican Senate runoff (June 22-24; 753 likely Louisiana GOP voters) showed State Treasurer John Fleming leading Rep. Julia Letlow 51-47 percent. On June 27, however, Letlow won 57-43 percent. This underscores the need for caution when interpreting public polling.

The most recent study, from reputable Public Policy Polling (June 24-26; 600 likely Colorado Democratic primary voters; text & live interview) projects AG Weiser to be leading Sen. Bennet 45-36% percent. In PPP’s June 1-2 poll, Sen. Bennet was ahead 36-30 percent.

A further challenge for Bennet is that his support appears to have a ceiling. After beginning the year with a 2:1 lead over any prospective Democratic opponent, including Weiser, Sen. Bennet has not exceeded 36 percent in any poll – a clear warning sign for his prospects tonight.

Even if Bennet loses, it would be difficult to frame the result as a Democratic Socialist victory, however. While Weiser is campaigning to the left, he is not relying upon socialist rhetoric. Like all Democratic candidates, he is running against President Trump, but he has also emphasized Colorado‑specific issues and mounted an exhaustive campaign effort. If Bennet assumed Weiser would be easy to defeat, he appears to have misjudged his opponent.

In the Senate race, incumbent and former Gov. John Hickenlooper should win renomination tonight, but even he has not performed particularly well in the one recent poll we have seen of this race. Expect Sen. Hickenlooper to defeat state Sen. Julie Gonzalez (D-Denver), another DSA candidate, but his victory percentage may be smaller than one would expect from a well-known incumbent before voters of his own party.

Several House races are also contested, but Reps. Joe Neguse (D-Lafayette/Boulder), Lauren Boebert (R-Silt), Jeff Crank (R-Colorado Springs), Jason Crow (D-Aurora), and Brittany Petersen (D-Lakewood) are all unopposed for renomination.

One of the most striking contests is the DSA challenge to veteran Rep. Diana DeGette (D) in Denver’s 1st District. Attorney Melat Kiros is running slightly ahead in limited polling and dominated the Democratic endorsing convention. Kiros received nearly 70 percent support from convention delegates, while DeGette qualified for the ballot by only eight delegate votes above the minimum – making this another potential DSA upset.

In the western slope 3rd District, freshman Rep. Jeff Hurd (R‑Grand Junction) faces a primary challenge from former state Rep. Ron Hanks. Rep. Hurd is expected to win easily but will likely face a competitive general election, probably against venture capitalist Alex Kelloff.

The 8th Congressional District, located north and northeast of Denver, was created by the Colorado Independent Redistricting Commission as a domain that the local political winds could influence. CO-8 is one of the most politically marginal districts in the country, and every election is expected to be competitive.

Democrats began with a large primary field, but most candidates have withdrawn, realistically leaving a contest between state Rep. Manny Rutinel (D‑Commerce City) and former state Rep. Shannon Bird. Rutinel has been a strong fundraiser but spent heavily during the primary. Ms. Bird, viewed as a slight underdog, is the more centrist candidate and has faced outside attacks for being too pro‑Israel. The stakes in this primary are high.

The winner will face freshman Republican Gabe Evans (R‑Ft. Lupton/Thornton), who is considered one of the most endangered GOP incumbents in the nation due to the district’s competitiveness. Regardless of tonight’s Democratic outcome, the CO‑8 general election will immediately become a national congressional contest.

Will Colorado Rep. DeGette be Next to Fall to a Democratic Socialist?

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, June 25, 2026

US House

Six House members have already been denied renomination this cycle, and next week’s Colorado primary could add another to the list.

Rep. Diana DeGette (D-Denver) is facing a serious challenge from attorney and Democratic Socialist Melat Kiros in a race that pegs a far left liberal against a traditional liberal incumbent. Congresswoman DeGette has been in office since winning her first term in 1996, ironically a year before her opponent was born.

The June 23 New York primary underscored the strength of the Democratic Socialist candidates. Three DSA‑aligned contenders won congressional primaries in New York City, victories that all but assure them seats in November. Two of the winners defeated incumbents: Reps. Dan Goldman and Adriano Espaillat. In Brooklyn, state Assemblywoman Claire Valdez easily won a crowded primary to succeed retiring Rep. Nydia Velázquez (D).

In both the Goldman and Espaillat races, the challengers overcame major financial disadvantages. Brad Lander, the former NYC Comptroller, defeated Rep. Goldman despite being outspent 7:1; Goldman spent more than $7 million attempting to hold his seat but lost 66-34 percent. Darializa Avila Chevalier edged Rep. Espaillat 49-46 percent, despite a 2:1 spending deficit.

Earlier in the year, three additional incumbents, Reps. Dan Crenshaw (R‑TX), Al Green (D‑TX), and Thomas Massie (R‑KY), were defeated by wide margins. A sixth incumbent loss stemmed from redistricting rather than voter rejection.

In Texas’ newly drawn 33rd District, former Congressman and 2024 Senate nominee Colin Allred defeated freshman Rep. Julie Johnson (D‑Farmers Branch). Although the district lies entirely within Dallas County, most of its territory was unfamiliar to Johnson and markedly different from her original 32nd District, which was transformed into a Republican‑leaning seat stretching into East Texas.

These results reflect a broader frustration within both party bases and recent signs suggest that Colorado Democrats may be experiencing similar tensions.

Rep. DeGette’s vulnerability became apparent when she barely qualified for the ballot at the 1st District nominating convention. Colorado candidates must either secure 30 percent of convention delegate support or submit sufficient petition signatures to earn a ballot position. Rep. DeGette cleared the 30 percent threshold by just eight votes in an official intra-party caucus where delegates overwhelmingly backed Kiros.

A reported Data for Progress Colorado poll showed Kiros leading next week’s 1st District race with 41 percent, followed by DeGette at 36 percent and University of Colorado Regent Wanda James at six percent. Like Chevalier in New York, Kiros is a strong anti‑Israel activist, reflecting issues increasingly becoming prominent in Democratic primaries.

Money favors Rep. DeGette, and has been bolstered by significant outside spending. However, as seen in other incumbent defeats, financial advantages have not always been enough to counteract shifting voter sentiment.

Additional signs of political turbulence for Colorado incumbents appear in the gubernatorial and Senate primaries.

Recent polling indicates a tightening race in the open Democratic gubernatorial primary. Sen. Michael Bennet (D) faces a strong challenge from Attorney General Phil Weiser, who has mounted an unexpectedly competitive campaign effort.

A late May Colorado Community Research poll (May 22-26; 796 likely Democratic primary voters) showed Weiser leading Sen. Bennet 41-34 percent. A follow‑up Public Policy Polling survey (June 1-2; 505 likely Democratic primary voters; text & live interview) found Bennet rebounding but to only a tenuous 36-30 percent.

The Colorado Community Research poll also tested the US Senate primary and surprisingly found Sen. John Hickenlooper leading state Sen. Julie Gonzalez (D‑Denver), another Democratic Socialist, by a narrow 41–34 percent margin.

Colorado is the only state holding a June 30 primary, and the key contests are shaping up to deliver another round of closely watched and potentially consequential results.

Reps. Goldman, Espaillat Lose in NY; Election Results Roundup

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, June 24, 2026

Two more US House incumbents lost their renomination bids last night as the New York Democratic Socialists had a big night.

Maryland

In the most watched race in the state, and certainly most expensive, freshman Rep. April McClain Delaney (D-Potomac) defeated former Congressman David Trone who was attempting a political comeback after losing the 2024 Senate Democratic primary. At this writing, Rep. Delaney held a 44-38 percent lead despite Trone spending almost $30 million on his campaign. She was also leading in the district’s two most populous counties, Montgomery and Frederick.

In the open 5th District, retiring Rep. Steny Hoyer’s (D-Mechanicsville) endorsed candidate, state Delegate Adrian Boafo (D-Bowie) easily won the Democratic primary over 22 opponents. Gov. Wes Moore and Sen. Angela Alsobrooks also endorsed Boafo. He will now go onto record a strong general election win.

Another House challenge saw veteran incumbent Rep. Kweisi Mfume (D-Baltimore) easily defeating Baltimore City Councilman Mark Conway with 70 percent of the vote.

New York

Big losses for two incumbents again proves that dominant campaign spending does not necessarily guarantee victory. Rep. Dan Goldman (D-NYC) was dealt a crushing defeat in his bid for a third term, losing to former NYC Comptroller Brad Lander by a 66-34 percent margin.

In the Harlem-anchored 13th District, Rep. Adriano Espaillat also lost his Democratic primary. Darializa Avila Chevalier defeated Rep. Espaillat in a tight 49-46 percent result. Both Lander and Chevalier were heavily outspent (Goldman’s money ratio over Lander was 7:1; Espaillat held a 2:1 resource advantage). Both Lander and Chevalier are closely aligned with the Democratic Socialists.

Six incumbents have now lost their renomination campaigns. In addition to Reps. Goldman and Espaillat, Reps. Thomas Massie (R-KY), Al Green (D-TX), Julie Johnson (D-TX), and Dan Crenshaw (R-TX), all failed to win their respective primaries earlier in the year.

In another Democratic Socialist win, state Assemblywoman Claire Valdez easily won the open 7th District Democratic primary. She will next win the general election and succeed retiring Rep. Nydia Velazquez (D-Brooklyn).

In the hotly contested open 12th CD, state Assemblyman Micah Lasher won the Democratic primary, defeating state Assemblyman Alex Bores, Jack Kennedy Schlossberg, grandson of President John F. Kennedy, and attorney George Conway.

This campaign ended in an inverse order regarding campaign expenditures. Here, Conway and Schlossberg spent the most, with the winner, Lasher, spending the least among the top contenders. Assemblyman Lasher will now win the general election without much difficulty and in January will succeed retiring Rep. Jerrold Nadler (D-New York City).

In Bronx District 15, incumbent Rep. Ritchie Torres scored a landslide 72-22 percent Democratic primary win over former state Assemblyman Michael Blake in a race that was originally believed to be competitive.

In a race where money did make a difference, Trump-endorsed businessman and ex-professional boxer Anthony Constantino easily defeated state Assemblyman Robert Smullen in the open 21st District. With a 10:1 resource advantage and the Trump endorsement, Constantino rolled to a 59-41 percent victory.

The new Republican nominee will now face dairy farmer Blake Gendebien (D) in the general election. Expect this contest to be competitive even though the 21st District is largely Republican. The winner will succeed retiring Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-Schuylerville) in the North Country district.

Utah

Looking at the state’s new Democratic 1st District anchored in Salt Lake City, former Congressman Ben McAdams scored a big early victory over state Sen. Nate Blouin (D-Salt Lake City). Against three opponents, McAdams, who previously served one term in the US House, recorded just over 60 percent of the vote. He now becomes the prohibitive favorite to return to the House in the November election.

In new districts, Reps. Blake Moore (R-Salt Lake City) scored a 58 percent win over state Rep. Karianne Lisonbee (R-Syracuse), Celeste Maloy was an easy 3rd District Republican winner, while Mike Kennedy (R-Alpine) was unopposed for renomination in the 4th District, which is entirely new territory for him when compared to the previous 3rd District to which he was elected in 2024.

South Carolina

As expected, four-term Attorney General Alan Wilson, the son of veteran Congressman Joe Wilson (R-Springdale) scored a major 69-31 percent victory over Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette in the Republican runoff election. Wilson now becomes the heavy favorite to win the general election in November and succeed incumbent Henry McMaster (R), who will retire as the state’s longest-serving Governor.

In the 1st District Republican runoff to replace Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston), who risked the seat for an unsuccessful gubernatorial run, Charleston County Councilwoman Jenny Costa Honeycutt defeated state Rep. Mark Smith (R-Daniel Island) in a 54-46 percent result. Honeycutt also finished first in the regular primary. She now becomes the strong favorite to win the general election and hold the 1st District seat for the GOP.