By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, July 22, 2026
Five-term Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Gilbert), as polling correctly predicted, easily won the Arizona Republican gubernatorial primary last night defeating fellow Rep. David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills) with more than 70 percent of the vote. Rep. Biggs will now challenge Gov. Katie Hobbs who faced no opposition in her Democratic primary.
With Arizona becoming politically purple, we can again expect another close Governor’s race result. In 2022, Hobbs, then Arizona’s Secretary of State, won a razor-thin 50.3 – 49.6 percent victory over Republican Kari Lake.
Arizona has no Senate election this year, and at least three of the state’s nine House races will be highly competitive in November.
AZ-1 – Open Seat
On the Republican side, former NFL placekicker Jay Feeley – boosted by President Trump’s endorsement – defeated state Rep. Joseph Chaplik (R Scottsdale) and technology company executive John Trobough. When all the votes are counted, Feeley will garner approximately 50 percent of the party vote.
While a large portion of the Democratic establishment was lining up behind former news anchor Marlene Galan Woods, even though Dr. Amish Shah defeated in her in the 2024 Democratic primary and held incumbent David Schweikert to a four-point victory margin in the general election, it will again be Dr. Shah advancing into the general election. The final vote count projection suggests that Dr. Shah will attract in the neighborhood of 42 percent support opposite three other Democratic candidates.
Expect another tight 1st District race to unfold in the general election cycle.
AZ-5 – Open Seat
The other major Republican primary comes in Rep. Biggs’s open congressional district race. Former Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb shook off a sex scandal to defeat Chandler construction company owner Daniel Keenan with 58 percent of the vote at this writing.
The 5th District is safely Republican, so Lamb should easily top the new Democratic nominee, nurse Elizabeth Lee, who recorded a landslide victory over her two opponents.
General Election Competition
Aside from the competitive Governor’s race and other statewide campaigns, at least three GOP-held congressional districts are going to draw a great deal of national attention.
The 1st District, as covered above, promises to remain in toss-up mode all the way to election day. Republicans have a small edge in voting history, but the 1st District could easily slip to the Democrats in November. Expect an expensive and hard-hitting campaign to dominate the Phoenix metro political airwaves. Republicans performing better than Democrats in the primary turnout battle will also boost the new GOP nominee, Feeley.
In the northeastern 2nd District, expect both second-term incumbent Eli Crane (R-Oro Valley) and former Navajo Nation president and 2022 congressional nominee Jonathan Nez to again wage strong and expensive campaigns. Rep. Crane won the 2024 version of this contest with a 55-45 percent victory, but the rematch will likely be closer. Rep. Crane, however, still remains the favorite.
From the Phoenix-anchored 4th District, four-term Rep. Greg Stanton (D-Phoenix) was an easy 68 percent Democratic primary winner last night and will have little trouble winning a fifth term in November.
The southeastern 6th CD will feature a bare majority winner as two-term Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R-Tucson) again faces a difficult re-election campaign in a politically marginal congressional district. His 2026 opponent will be retired Marine Corps Sgt. JoAnna Mendoza (D) who will attempt to flip the seat to the Democratic column. Both Rep. Ciscomani and Mendoza were unopposed in yesterday’s primary. Like the 1st District, this campaign will be in toss-up mode until the final vote is tabulated.
In the remaining districts, Reps. Yasamin Ansari (D-Phoenix), Adelita Grijalva (D-Tucson), Abe Hamadeh (R-Phoenix), and Paul Gosar (R-Bullhead City) will all coast to re-election in November.
