Category Archives: Primary

Louisiana Sen. Cassidy Loses

By Jim Ellis — Monday, May 18, 2026

Senate

Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA) loses challenge to hold US Senate seat.

Louisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy suffered a decisive defeat in Saturday’s Republican primary, even failing to qualify for the runoff election.

Rep. Julia Letlow (R-Start), with President Trump’s public support, finished first with a strong 44.8 percent of the vote against three opponents, falling just over five percentage points short of an outright victory. She will advance to the June 27 runoff against State Treasurer, physician, and former Congressman John Fleming, who outpaced Sen. Cassidy to secure second place. Dr. Fleming finished 3.5 percentage points ahead of the two‑term incumbent, a margin of nearly 14,000 votes.

Letlow carried 53 of Louisiana’s 64 parishes — and potentially 54 once all ballots are tallied. She trails Dr. Fleming by a single vote in Grant Parish. Including Grant, Dr. Fleming won eight parishes, all located within the 4th Congressional District that he represented for eight years. Sen. Cassidy managed to prevail in only three parishes, two in the New Orleans metro area and one in Baton Rouge.

The result marked another impressive primary victory for President Trump. He endorsed Rep. Letlow even before she became a Senate candidate. Sen. Cassidy had been Trump’s top Republican intra‑party target, as he is one of only two GOP Senators on the ballot this year — the other being Susan Collins from Maine — who voted for the 2021 impeachment just days before Trump left office after losing the 2020 election.

Clearly, Sen. Cassidy did not anticipate Trump’s return to the Presidency, which proved a grave political miscalculation. Of course, the Senator will remain in office to serve the final seven months of the current term.

Cassidy was first elected in 2014 and re‑elected in 2020, both under Louisiana’s jungle primary system, in which all candidates appear on the same ballot regardless of party affiliation. He defeated three‑term Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) in the 2014 runoff by a 56-44 percent margin. In 2020, he won re‑election outright in the jungle primary, earning 59.3 percent of the vote against 14 opponents, only one of whom was a Republican.

Many Louisiana political observers believe that unseating Sen. Cassidy was one factor motivating the legislature and Gov. Jeff Landry (R) to change the state’s nomination structure. Analysts have suggested that Cassidy would likely have performed better under the previous jungle primary system, where Democrats and Independents could also participate.

Instead of holding a November jungle primary concurrently with the general election followed by December runoffs for any race in which no candidate reached the 50 percent threshold, the legislature and Governor replaced the system with early closed partisan primaries for federal offices and select Louisiana state contests.

Ironically, because of the ongoing redistricting process, primaries for the US House races were not held on Saturday. Once a new 2026 congressional map is finalized, those campaigns will return to the traditional November/December schedule. As before, any candidate who secures a majority in the November vote will be elected outright.

For the Democrats, Saturday’s overwhelming first‑place finisher was farmer Jamie Davis, who captured 47.4 percent of the vote and topped his two opponents in all 64 parishes. It remains unclear whom he will face in the runoff, as the current second‑place candidate, businessman and Navy veteran Gary Crockett, leads non-profit organization executive Nicolas Albares by only 284 votes with several thousand ballots still uncounted.

In both parties, the first‑place finishers came close enough to the 50 percent mark that Rep. Letlow and Davis enter their respective June 27 runoff elections as virtual prohibitive favorites. Given Louisiana’s strong Republican lean, Rep. Letlow would then become the clear general‑election favorite once the runoffs conclude.

The Cassidy defeat brings the number of open US Senate races in the 2026 cycle to 11 – seven from the Republican side and four from the Democratic column. The next major Senate contest arrives on May 26 in Texas, where Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton are competing for the Republican nomination in what is expected to be a very close finish.

Nebraska & WV Primary Results

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, May 13, 2026

Nebraska

The big story emerging from the Nebraska primary is whether Cindy Burbank, who last night overwhelmingly won the Democratic primary with 90 percent of the vote over Pastor Bill Forbes, will now withdraw from the race, thereby giving Independent Dan Osborn a clear path to challenge Sen. Pete Ricketts (R) in the general election.

Controversy arose over pre-primary comments she made about endorsing Osborn if she were to become the Democratic nominee before exiting the race. Those remarks prompted the Secretary of State to disqualify her candidacy, arguing that she had violated Nebraska’s candidate oath, which requires individuals seeking office to pledge that they will serve if nominated and elected.

Burbank sued to retain her place on the ballot and prevailed in court. At the time of her reinstatement, she again pledged to remain in the race and serve if elected. Whether she ultimately keeps that promise remains to be seen.

It is clear that Burbank, who raised less than $5,000 for her statewide primary campaign, is unlikely to mount a significant challenge against Sen. Ricketts. Osborn, by contrast, has already raised more than $4 million for his campaign and is clearly emerging as Sen. Ricketts’ principal opponent.

In the House races, the 2nd District Democratic primary is ending in a close contest between political consultant Denise Powell and state Sen. John Cavanaugh (D-Omaha). It appears Powell will upset Sen. Cavanaugh who was considered the favorite for the nomination.

With about 6,300 votes remaining to be counted, Powell led 38.9 – 36.8 percent. The eventual winner, presumably Powell, will advance to the general election to face Omaha City Councilman Brinker Harding, who was unopposed in the Republican primary.

The 2nd District represents a prime Democratic conversion opportunity from an electorate that twice opposed President Trump and where Republican incumbent Don Bacon is retiring after what will be 10 years of service in the US House.

In the 1st Congressional District, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Chris Backemeyer won the Democratic primary and will now challenge incumbent Rep. Mike Flood (R-Norfolk) in the general election.

In the 3rd CD, which stretches across the width of the state from the Wyoming and Colorado borders to Iowa and Missouri, veteran Rep. Adrian Smith (R-Gering) will face agribusiness associate Becky Stille in the general election. Nebraska’s 3rd District is one of the safest Republican seats in the country. Rep. Mike Flood is also considered a prohibitive favorite for re-election.

In the Governor’s race, incumbent Jim Pillen won renomination in the Republican primary with more than 75 percent of the vote. His general election opponent will be former state Sen. Lynne Walz (D), a cousin of Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, the former Democratic Vice Presidential nominee.

West Virginia

Sen. Shelley Moore Capito won an easy Republican primary victory last night in the Mountain State, scoring a 66 percent win over state Sen. Tom Willis (R-Berkeley) and four minor intra-party opponents.

In the general election, she will face former Morgantown City Councilwoman Rachel Fetty-Anderson who secured a 33-27 percent victory over former state Senate President Jeff Kessler and three lesser-known Democratic candidates. Sen. Capito now becomes a prohibitive favorite in the general election.

In the congressional races, 1st District Rep. Carol Miller (R-Huntington) will square off against retired public policy analyst Vince George, who won the Democratic primary.

In northern District 2, the new Democratic nominee is political organizer Ace Parsi, who scored a close 40-38 percent victory over educator Stephanie Spears Tomana. Parsi will now face freshman Rep. Riley Moore (R-Harpers Ferry), who was unopposed for renomination.

Along with Sen. Capito, both Reps. Miller and Moore are strong favorites in the general election.

Nebraska & WV Primaries Today

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, May 12, 2026

Two more states are holding their regular primary elections today: the Cornhusker State of Nebraska and the Mountain State of West Virginia. We have entered a primary election cycle where various states hold primaries every week from now through June 30. In May, primaries will be held today, the 12th, and on the 16th, 19th and 26th. In June, 17 more primaries will be held on every Tuesday of the month — on the 2nd, 9th, 18th, 23rd, and 30th.

Nebraska

Several Nebraska races are of note today, but none more unique than the US Senate Democratic primary.

As we saw in 2024, Independent Dan Osborn emerged as the de facto Democratic challenger to Sen. Deb Fischer (R) with the party’s official support. This year, he returns to challenge Sen. Pete Ricketts (R), who is on the ballot seeking his first full six-year term.

Ricketts, the state’s former Governor, was appointed in 2023 to replace resigned Sen. Ben Sasse (R). He was then elected in 2024 with 62 percent of the vote to serve the remaining two years of the current term.

The Democratic primary is the race to watch tonight. Two candidates are on the ballot, and the eventual nominee could ultimately withdraw from the race.

Democratic activist Cindy Burbank previously stated that she supports Dan Osborn and would withdraw from the race and endorse him if she became the Democratic nominee. The Secretary of State subsequently disqualified her candidacy, citing a Nebraska law requiring candidates to sign an oath affirming that they will assume office if elected. Burbank challenged the decision in court, and a judge later reinstated her candidacy.

The other Democratic candidate is pastor Bill Forbes, who says he supports Sen. Ricketts. So, it is likely that he would remain on the ballot should he win the party nomination in order to draw some Democratic votes away from Mr. Osborn.

Neither Democratic primary candidate has raised significant funds. According to the March 31 Federal Election Commission financial disclosure reports, Burbank had raised just $4,296 for her campaign, while Pastor Forbes reported only $1,000.

All of this points toward a general election featuring Sen. Pete Ricketts and Independent Dan Osborn. The race is expected to become expensive, but the Senator remains the clear favorite to win comfortably, regardless of what early polling may suggest.

Gov. Jim Pillen is seeking a second term and faces only minor opposition in the Republican primary. Democrats, meanwhile, are holding a two-way primary, with former state Sen. Lynne Walz, a cousin of Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D), expected to win the party’s nomination tonight. Gov. Pillen is favored for re-election.

Two of the state’s three congressional incumbents are seeking re-election. Rep. Mike Flood (R-Norfolk) is unopposed for renomination and will likely face former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Chris Backemeyer, who is expected to emerge from tonight’s Democratic primary. With a partisan lean of 56.7R – 40.4D, according to Dave’s Redistricting App, Rep. Flood should face little difficulty in the general election.

Third District veteran Rep. Adrian Smith (R-Gering) sees only minor opposition in tonight’s Republican primary. He represents Nebraska’s safest Republican congressional district, with a partisan lean of 75.2 – 22.8D according to Dave’s Redistricting App. NE-3 is a sprawling district that stretches across the state from the Wyoming and Colorado borders to the Iowa and Missouri lines.

The state’s key general election battle will take place in the Omaha anchored 2nd Congressional District, where five-term Rep. Don Bacon (R-Papillion) is retiring. The district’s electorate has twice voted against President Trump, supporting Kamala Harris 52-47 percent in 2024 and Joe Biden with a 52-46 percent margin in 2020.

The 2nd District is considered one of Democrats’ top conversion opportunities in the country. Republicans will formally nominate Omaha City Councilman Brinker Harding tonight, as he runs unopposed for the party’s nomination.

The Democratic field is crowded, with six candidates competing for the nomination. The contest is largely centered on state Sen. John Cavanaugh (D-Omaha), whose father served in the US House in the 1970s, political consultant and Democratic activist Denise Powell, and former US Department of Veterans Affairs Deputy Assistant Secretary Kishla Askins.

West Virginia

A quiet primary night is expected in the Mountain State. Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R) is seeking a third term and, although she faces five Republican challengers, the most notable being state Sen. Tom Willis (R-Berkeley), she is widely expected to secure renomination with ease. Sen. Capito is also a prohibitive favorite in the general election.

In the House, Rep. Carol Miller (R-Huntington) faces only a minor opponent in tonight’s primary. In the 2nd District, freshman Rep. Riley Moore (R-Harpers Ferry) is unopposed for renomination. Both incumbents are considered strong favorites for re-election in November.

Indiana & Ohio Primary Results

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, May 6, 2026

Voting started up again yesterday in two Midwestern states, ending a primary lull since March. The month of May will host nine more primaries and a series of 16 Texas federal runoff elections (One US Senate; 15 US House).

Voters in Indiana and Ohio chose their nominees yesterday, and the Hoosier state Senate races stole the show. There are just two contested statewide elections in Indiana this year (Secretary of State; Comptroller) and no US Senate race.

Ohio will feature an open Governor’s campaign along with a hotly contested US Senate race between appointed Sen. Jon Husted (R) and former US Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) in addition to at least two major US House contests.

Indiana

The Indiana Senate refused to pass a redistricting map that would have enhanced the Republican standing in the US House, and President Trump threatened to target and defeat the seven GOP incumbents who foiled the redraw. The President followed through on his threat and proved successful as five of the seven targeted Senators fell to crushing defeats last night.

Possibly as a side effect of the Indiana redistricting issue, it is arguable that all Hoosier State Republican congressional incumbents who drew opposition under-performed even when winning renomination.

Freshman Rep. Jefferson Shreve (R-Indianapolis), despite having literally a 100:1 advantage in campaign resources ($2.3 million to $22,000) over his opponent was renominated with just 53 percent of the vote.

Three-term Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-Noblesville) won with a 60-40 percent margin against a Republican opponent who literally spent no money on her campaign. Similarly, incumbent Marlin Stutzman (R-Howe/Ft. Wayne) recorded a 67 percent victory percentage against an opponent who had less than $100,000 in resources.

An incumbent who faced a legitimate challenger was 4th District Rep. Jim Baird (R-Greencastle). He defeated his opponent, state Rep. Craig Haggard (R-Mooresville), by a 61-30 percent margin. This was not an expensive primary, and Rep. Baird at 80 years of age had been laid up from injuries suffered in an auto accident. Therefore, his 61 percent victory figure is certainly acceptable.

The only Democratic incumbent who faced a challenge was Rep. Andre Carson (D-Indianapolis). Against three opponents, he won renomination with 62 percent of the vote.

Irrespective of all challenged Indiana US House members recording below average victory percentages for incumbents seeking renomination, the entire nine-member delegation should easily win their respective general election campaigns.

Ohio

Several of the Ohio general election campaigns will be of national importance.

Businessman and former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy won the Ohio Republican gubernatorial nomination last night with a landslide 82 percent of the vote. He now faces former Ohio Health Director Amy Acton who was unopposed in the Democratic primary.

Appointed Sen. Jon Husted had no Republican opposition in his special election primary. For the Democrats, as expected, former Sen. Sherrod Brown was renominated with 89 percent of the vote. The two will square off in November for the right to serve the final two years of the current term.

When J.D. Vance resigned his Senate seat to become Vice President, a special election became necessary to fill the balance of the term after Husted, then the state’s Lieutenant Governor, was appointed. In order for the 2026 winner to secure a full six-year term, the individual will be tasked with running again in 2028.

No surprises occurred in the Ohio House races. Two races of note will be featured as national campaigns in the general election, those from Cincinnati and Toledo.

In the 1st District, former CIA case officer Eric Conroy easily won the Republican nomination and now will challenge two-term Rep. Greg Landsman (D-Cincinnati) in a district that the Ohio redraw transformed from a lean Democratic seat to one that tilts Republican.

In the 9th CD, where then-state Rep. Derek Merrin (R) came within less than a percentage point of upsetting veteran Rep. Marcy Kaptur in 2024, we will see a re-match. Merrin defeated a crowded Republican field last night in order to earn a second chance of wresting the House seat away from Kaptur, who was first elected in 1982.

Redistricting made the 9th District even more Republican than it was in 2024, so this challenge race now becomes one of the best GOP conversion opportunities in the nation.

Kentucky Race Taking Shape

By Jim Ellis — Friday, April 10, 2026

Senate

For months, Rep. Andy Barr (R-Lexington) enjoyed a commanding lead in campaign resources over his principal opponent, former Attorney General and 2023 gubernatorial nominee Daniel Cameron, but not a polling advantage. The situation has now changed.

While Rep. Barr undoubtedly still has more money in his campaign account than does Cameron, he now is forging ahead in polling, too. According to the latest Emerson College survey, conducted for Nexstar and WDKY-TV in Lexington (March 29-31; 400 likely Kentucky Republican primary voters; multiple sampling techniques), Rep. Barr now leads Cameron and businessman Nate Morris by a 28-21-15 percent margin.

While Rep. Barr had placed first in two previous surveys after routinely trailing, both spreads were well within the polling margin of error meaning he was virtually tied with Cameron. The new Emerson College survey is the first publicly released poll to find Rep. Barr inconclusively leading the open Blue Grass State US Senate Republican primary.

According to the Federal Election Commission year-end 2025 filing, Rep. Barr had raised over $6.5 million as compared to Cameron’s $1.6 million. A total of $1.44 million of Barr’s funding came as a transfer from his US House campaign committee. As filing closed at the end of December, Barr reported almost $6.5 million cash-on-hand, while Cameron declared only $630,016 remaining in his campaign account, meaning a 10:1 Barr advantage.

Though no candidate has yet to announce how much their campaigns have raised in the 1st Quarter 2026 (the filing deadline is April 15), it is presumed that the Barr financial lead will have grown larger even though he has been spending a portion of his financial advantage to become better known to Republican primary voters beyond his 6th Congressional District constituency.

The wild card in the race is Morris. A wealthy business owner, Morris has been advertising for months. He is running against the Republican establishment, and repeatedly trashes retiring Sen. Mitch McConnell. Others, even in Republican primaries, have similarly attacked McConnell, but none were running in Kentucky.

The Morris angle of going after McConnell and tying his opponents to the former Senate Majority Leader is a questionable one when campaigning before a Republican electorate that has routinely strongly supported the seven-term incumbent since he first ran for the Senate in 1984.

Morris has already put $5 million of his own money into his statewide campaign, and Elon Musk is reportedly donating $10 million to a Super PAC supporting Morris’ effort. Therefore, he is a serious third candidate but one who still lags considerably behind the two front runners.

While we are still weeks away from the May 19 primary election, the seeds are set for a Barr victory in the plurality Republican primary, meaning beginning the general election cycle with a clear advantage.

Emerson also tested the Democratic side as part of their March 29-31 statewide poll, surveying 549 likely Democratic primary voters. Here we see former Louisville state Rep. Charles Booker topping former US Senate and ex-congressional nominee Amy McGrath, a retired Marine Corps officer, by a 2:1 clip, translating into a 36-18 percent advantage.

McGrath, a proven strong fundraiser, opposed both Sen. McConnell and Rep. Barr in previous elections and fared poorly despite being at parity with her stronger Republican opponents in campaign resources. Regardless of who comes through the Democratic primary, the general election will prove a major obstacle for the individual irrespective of funding, the political climate’s status at the time of the general election, and trends that might be developing in other states.

At this point, it appears Rep. Barr is now in the best position to win the open GOP Senate nomination and carry that momentum through toward winning the general election.

Kentucky Senate: A GOP Toss-Up

By Jim Ellis — Friday, March 20, 2026

Senate

A newly released Public Opinion Strategies survey confirms that Kentucky Rep. Andy Barr (R-Lexington) and former Attorney General and 2023 gubernatorial nominee Daniel Cameron are evolving into a toss-up Republican primary battle, which is the first step toward succeeding retiring Sen. Mitch McConnell (R).

Businessman Nate Morris is the third significant GOP Senatorial candidate, though nine additional Republicans will be on the ballot. Morris has injected more than $5 million of his own money into his Senate campaign and is positioned to benefit from a $10 million Super PAC that Elon Musk supported. Still, he significantly trails Cameron and Barr.

The POS survey finds the former Attorney General retaking the lead at 31-29 percent over Rep. Barr, meaning a virtual tie, while Morris, who has advertised heavily, trails with a 13 percent support figure.

Two polls from last month found Rep. Barr, who has a huge resource advantage over Cameron, claiming the first position.

A Feb. 4 online Quantus Insights study of 870 likely Republican primary voters saw a virtual tie at the top – Barr leading 28-27 percent – with Morris pulling 17 percent. The Emerson College Kentucky Senate poll (Jan. 31-Feb. 2; 523 likely Kentucky Republican primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) likewise found a similar result, 24-21-14 percent, with Barr leading Cameron and Morris in said order.

Therefore, at this point, two months before the May 19 primary election, we see an evolving close finish with Barr having a slight edge.

One place where the Congressman has a clear advantage relates to fundraising and campaign resources. New reports will be made public in a month, but the year-end 2025 totals found Mr. Barr holding at that time $6.5 million in his campaign account versus just $630,000+ for Mr. Cameron.

Mr. Morris has also raised or self-funded more than $6 million, but he had spent three-quarters of his resources before the end of 2025. He reported $1.4 million in the bank at that time, so he too is considerably behind Rep. Barr in terms of reserved campaign dollars. Morris could loan further money to the race, but the question remains as to how far he will tap his personal assets to compete in this Senate campaign.

Since only 25 percent of the Morris campaign assets come from others, it is likely that he will have to further rely upon himself to promote his campaign effort. He will be receiving major support from the substantial unconnected Super PAC that Musk supports, but obviously the Morris campaign cannot control or influence the entity’s messaging strategy.

The Democrats are clearly in the underdog position in this race, and have been since Gov. Andy Beshear, who could have put the open Senate race in play, opted to prepare a run for President.

Four of the seven filed Democratic candidates are competitive for the nomination. Former US Senate and congressional nominee Amy McGrath, a retired Marine Corps officer, is a strong fundraiser, but she fared poorly in a 2018 congressional campaign against Rep. Barr and in a challenge opposite Sen. McConnell two years later.

State House Minority Leader Pamela Stevenson (D-Louisville), former state Representative and 2020 and 2022 US Senate candidate Charles Booker, and thoroughbred horse trainer Dale Romans also have a chance to claim the party nomination.

Post-primary, the eventual Republican nominee will be rated as the favorite to win the general election and succeed Sen. McConnell, the former Majority Leader, who will leave the body next year after serving what will have been 42 years in office.

Stratton, Bean Win; Jackson, Jr. Loses

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, March 18, 2026

Illinois Primary

The important Illinois primary produced the 2026 election cycle’s first full slate of partisan nominees last night. The Land of Lincoln hosted the nation’s fifth regular primary election, but the first allowing plurality finishes.

In the four previous March primaries, from Arkansas, Mississippi, North Carolina, and Texas, only candidates who secured majority support were nominated. In the campaigns where all finishers were under the majority threshold, the top two vote getters advanced into runoff elections.

Senate

Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton, with strong support from Gov. J.B. Pritzker’s political machine, defeated two sitting members of the House, Reps. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Schaumburg) and Robin Kelly (D-Matteson/Chicago) in last night’s Illinois open Senate Democratic primary.

Throughout the great preponderance of the primary campaign cycle, Rep. Krishnamoorthi had developed what appeared to be dominating polling and fundraising leads. In the Past two weeks, however, momentum clearly shifted to Stratton and this closing effort propelled her to a 39.7 – 33.3 percent victory over Krishnamoorthi.

Rep. Kelly, who was never a serious factor, pulled 18.4 percent of the vote. She did better in Cook County, garnering 23 percent, and won her home county of Kankakee, but otherwise, Kelly failed to make her mark throughout the rest of the state.

Stratton carried Cook County, which was expected, with just over 40 percent of the vote. The surprise was her strength downstate, basically running at parity with Krishnamoorthi outside of Cook County.

This race’s final publicly released poll, from FM3 Research (March 10-12; 678 likely Illinois Democratic primary voters), proved spot on. Its survey result from a week ago found Stratton leading Rep. Krishnamoorthi 38-33 percent.

On the Republican side, former state party chairman Don Tracy won his party’s nomination with 40 percent of the vote. He will be a decided underdog to Stratton in November. The winner will replace retiring Sen. Dick Durbin (D).

Governor

Incumbent J.B. Pritzker was unopposed in the Democratic primary as he seeks a third consecutive term as the state’s chief executive.

On the Republican side, former state Senator and 2022 gubernatorial nominee Darren Bailey won renomination setting up a re-match in November. Four years ago, Gov. Pritzker defeated Bailey by a 55-42 percent count. We can expect a similar result later this year.

House

All of the significant House primary action was on the Democratic side because the party is risking five seats through incumbent retirements and with Reps. Kelly and Krishnamoorthi running for the Senate. While the four hotly contested open seat primaries had large candidate fields, three of the four came down to two principal contenders.

The fifth open seat, that of retiring Rep. Jesus “Chuy” Garcia (D-Chicago), featured only one candidate, the Congressman’s chief of staff, Patty Garcia (no relation to the Congressman). We expect to see several prominent Democrats qualify as Independents to force a competitive general election, however.

In the Chicago-anchored 2nd District where former Congressman Jesse Jackson Jr. was attempting a comeback, Cook County Commissioner Donna Miller instead defeated the former 10-term incumbent, 40-29 percent. Jackson, son of the late civil rights leader, Jesse Jackson, was forced to leave office in 2012 after being convicted of bribery and misusing government and campaign funds. Miller is now a lock to win the general election.

The second comeback attempt, from former Congresswoman Melissa Bean, was successful. She defeated businessman Junaid Ahmed 32-27 percent. Bean was originally elected in 2004 but defeated in 2010. She now returns to succeed Rep. Krishnamoorthi in the state’s Chicago suburban 8th District. This version of the 8th, unlike the seat to which Bean was originally elected, is safely Democratic.

Turning to the 7th CD, the seat that retiring veteran Chicago Congressman Danny Davis represents, state Rep. LaShawn Ford (D-Chicago) defeated Chicago City Treasurer Melissa Conyears-Ervin 24-20 percent. He will now advance into Congress with what is predicted to be an easy general election win. This is a good example of why some states employ a runoff, because the final winning percentage in this situation is likely to be under 25 percent.

Ninth District Rep. Jan Schkowsky (D-Evanston) is retiring after serving what will be 36 years in the House at the end of this Congress. Her successor will be Evanston Mayor Daniel Biss, who won the Democratic primary with a close 29-26-20 percent win over free Palestine activist Kat Abughazaleh and state Sen. Laura Fine (D-Glenview). All other House incumbents from both parties who faced primary opposition won easily.

Next, we will see the special congressional election runoff in Georgia on April 7, followed by New Jersey’s 11th District special general election on April 16. The next regular primaries are not until May 5 in Indiana and Ohio. The month of May will feature 11 regular primaries and the Texas runoff election.

Illinois Primary Today

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, March 17, 2026

Primary

Voters in the Land of Lincoln will cast their election day ballots in today’s fifth state primary vote. Unlike the others we have witnessed so far in Arkansas, Mississippi, North Carolina, and Texas, the Illinois primary is plurality based. Therefore, we will see nominees chosen tonight in all races.

Leading the ticket is the important open US Senate race, and the new incumbent will be effectively crowned tonight in the Democratic primary. Republicans have little chance of putting this Senate seat in play for the general election, so retiring Sen. Dick Durbin’s (D) replacement will come from tonight’s Democratic vote.

The race is largely between Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Schaumburg), who has led in polling and fundraising for almost a year, and Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton, who has been the beneficiary of a Super PAC funded in most part by Gov. J.B. Pritzker and his family along with large expenditures from the Democratic Lieutenant Governors Association. The outside spending has brought her campaign into relative parity with Krishnamoorthi’s.

There is no doubt that Lt. Gov. Stratton has captured the closing momentum, but the question remains as to whether her late surge is enough to overtake the western Chicago suburban Congressman. A third top-tier candidate, Rep. Robin Kelly (D-Matteson/Chicago), failed to gain traction and is no longer competitive for the nomination.

The closing publicly released poll, from FM3 Research (March 10-12; 678 likely Illinois Democratic primary voters), projects Stratton to a 38-33 percent lead over Rep. Krishnamoorthi. Suggested internal campaign polls, however, still favor the Congressman, but the closing indicators suggest a close finish. Turnout from Chicago as compared to the downstate participation rate will likely be the determining factor. A high Chicago turnout will help Stratton; if the downstate participation is stronger, Krishnamoorthi will win the nomination.

The Governor’s race is also on the ballot. Gov. Pritzker is unopposed for renomination to a third term. Four Republicans are vying for their party’s nomination including 2022 nominee Darren Bailey, a former state Senator. He lost to Pritzker 55-42 percent four years ago. The Governor will again be favored in 2026.

All 17 Illinois US House seats are on the ballot today. Seven delegation members are running unopposed in their respective primaries: Reps. Jonathan Jackson (D-Chicago); Delia Ramirez (D-Chicago); Bill Foster (D-Naperville); Mike Bost (R-Murphysboro); Lauren Underwood (D-Naperville); Darin LaHood (R-Peoria); and Eric Sorensen (D-Moline).

Two former House members are making comeback attempts, and both have strong chances to prove victorious tonight.

Ex-Rep. Jesse Jackson, Jr. (D) was elected 10 times but resigned in 2012 when convicted of bribery and misuse of campaign and government funds. In this primary election, he faces nine Democratic opponents for his former 2nd District position. Among the contenders are two state Senators and a Cook County Commissioner. Tonight’s winner will cruise to election in November.

Former Congresswoman Melissa Bean (D) was first elected in 2004 but defeated for re-election in 2010. Now that the 8th District is again open due to Rep. Krishnamoorthi running for the Senate, Bean returns to elective politics. She faces seven Democrats tonight including Cook County Commissioner Kevin Morrison and local official Yasmeen Bankole.

Fourth District Rep. Jesus “Chuy” Garcia (D-Chicago) is retiring and was able to conceal his intentions until the filing period was ending when his chief of staff, Patty Garcia (no relation to the Congressman), filed in his place. While she is unopposed for the party nomination because Rep. Garcia was expected to seek re-election, four Democrats are attempting to qualify for the ballot as Independents to challenge her in the general election.

To gain ballot access without a political party nomination, an individual must recruit more than 10,500 petition signatures from the district’s registered voters. Included in this group are Chicago Alderman Byron Sigcho-Lopez and Lyons Mayor Chris Getty. The signatures must be submitted by May 26.

Incumbents Mike Quigley (D-Chicago), Sean Casten (D-Downers Grove), Brad Schneider (D-Highland Park), Nikki Budzinski (D-Springfield), and Mary Miller (R-Oakland) all face intra-party competition, but each is expected to easily win renomination.

The state congressional delegation also features two more safe Democratic open seats. In District 7, veteran Chicago Congressman Danny Davis (D) is retiring, and 14 Democrats are competing to be his successor. The group includes a state Representative, the Chicago City Treasurer, a local Mayor, a labor union official, and a physician within the crowded field. This plurality primary will likely be decided with the winner receiving only a small number of votes.

A similar situation will occur in retiring Rep. Jan Schkowsky’s (D-Evanston) open 9th District. Here, 15 Democrats are on the ballot, and it appears one of the following will likely be victorious tonight: Evanston Mayor Daniel Biss, state Sens. Laura Fine (D-Glenview) and Mike Simmons (D-Chicago), state Rep. Hoan Huynh (D-Chicago), or political researcher Kat Abughazaleh who has a national following.

We are assured of seeing some very interesting results later this evening.

First Primaries

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, March 4, 2026

Voting occurred in the first three primary states yesterday, Texas, North Carolina, and Arkansas. A number of races were decided last night and several are heading to runoffs. Some primary winners are already preparing for tough general election campaigns, while others are celebrating victories tantamount to winning a November electoral contest.

Texas

A huge primary night was held in the Lone Star State, and much more will be written about these races in the days and weeks to come.

In the all-important US Senate race, as expected, Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton advanced to a May 26 Republican runoff election. Though votes remain outstanding, a runoff has clearly been projected. Somewhat surprising to many political observers, Sen. Cornyn ran in first place all evening, and carries a one-point margin over AG Paxton from last night’s tabulations. Both will now advance into the late May runoff election by virtue of both scoring in the low 40s percentile range.

For the Democrats, late last night state Rep. James Talarico (D-Austin) was declared the victor over Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Dallas) by just about 160,000 votes with ballots still to count. The Republican runoff winner will now face Talarico in the November election in what promises to be perhaps the most competitive Texas Senate race we will have seen this century.

A total of 20 US House races in Texas saw significant primary action. Below is a quick recap:

Incumbents Losing or Trailing

Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-Humble) went down to a crushing defeat at the hands of state Rep. Steve Toth (R-The Woodlands) even though the Congressman held a huge financial advantage. The vote tally isn’t yet final, but the margin at this writing is a whopping 57-40 percent in the challenger’s favor. Toth will be a heavy favorite to hold the seat in the general election.

Two other House members trail and could lose their seats. Rep. Julie Johnson (D-Farmers Branch) is 11 percentage points behind former Congressman and 2024 US Senate nominee Colin Allred (D), but many ballots remain outstanding because of alleged voting irregularities in Dallas County and a delay in closing the polling places. It is possible that Allred could still win the nomination or be forced into a runoff with Rep. Johnson.

Veteran Rep. Al Green (D-Houston), who many election analysts predicted to lose, may not. He is locked in a tight battle that still could go either way. Rep. Christian Menefee (D-Houston) leads by just 654 votes, but with almost one-third of the ballots still uncounted. Additionally, both men are in the high 40s percentile, meaning neither has reached the majority threshold. Therefore, both could still advance to a May 26 runoff election.

Scandal-tainted Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-San Antonio) trails 2024 candidate Brandon Herrera, but both are only in the low 40s percentile range. Therefore, we can expect the two men being forced into another runoff. Two years ago, Rep. Gonzales was renominated over Herrera by only a 354-vote margin in the runoff election.

Outright Winners

The following candidates were declared outright winners last night in contested races and will advance to the general election as their party’s nominee:

In District 8, former America First Policy Institute attorney Jessica Steinmann romped to an easy 68 percent victory in the open Republican primary, which has likely punched her ticket into Congress. The 8th CD is solidly Republican.

In the 10th CD, Republican Chris Gober, who ran the Super PAC operation for Elon Musk, appears to have won the party nomination outright, though all ballots have not yet been tabulated. Assuming he has won the nomination, he will replace retiring Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Austin) after winning the general election.

Turning to the San Antonio-anchored 21st District, retired Major League Baseball player Mark Teixeira recorded a 61 percent victory against 11 opponents. He is now a lock to succeed Rep. Chip Roy (R-Austin), who has advanced into an Attorney General’s race runoff against state Sen. Mayes Middleton (R-Galveston).

Looking at South Texas District 28, Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo) landed a 58 percent victory and will now defend his seat in November against Webb County Judge (Executive) Tano Tijerina who easily won the Republican nomination with almost 75 percent of the party vote.

Also, on the Democratic side, Rep. Sylvia Garcia (D-Houston) turned back a primary challenge from former state Rep. and ex-Houston City Councilman Jarvis Johnson with a 58 percent total.

In the seat that Rep. Crockett risked to run for the Senate, prominent Dallas mega church pastor Frederick Haynes easily won the Democratic nomination with 74 percent of the vote. This primary win punches his ticket to Washington in the fall.

Facing nine Republican primary opponents, veteran Rep. John Carter (R-Round Rock) won renomination for a 13th term with just under 60 percent of the vote.

In the Brownsville-anchored 34th District, attorney Eric Flores defeated former Rep. Mayra Flores and six other Republican opponents to claim the party nomination with about a 57 percent vote total. Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-McAllen) was also renominated last night but with a disappointing 62.7 percent total. Expect a tough general election to occur in a district that became more Republican under the new redistricting map.

Two more Republicans, Jace Yarbrough in open District 32 and Jon Bonck in open District 38 are knocking on the door of securing majority support. Both will be prohibitive favorites in the general election if they can secure majority support from last night’s primary.

Run-offs

Texas races where no candidate received majority support, thus necessitating a May 26 runoff election, will occur in new open District 9 (Alexandra Mealer vs. state Rep. Briscoe Cain), open District 19 (agribusinessman Tom Sell and an opponent to be decided in a close battle for second place), and open CD 35 (State Rep. John Lujan-R) and businessman Chris De La Cruz, brother of Rep. Monica De La Cruz (R-McAllen).

Much will be written about these races to recap the primary and cover the runoff elections, but the most extraordinary occurrence last night was the Texas Democrats likely exceeding Republican turnout for the first time in decades.

North Carolina

As expected, former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) and ex-Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley each easily clinched their respective party nominations and will advance to what promises to be one of the premier national US Senate races. Sen. Thom Tillis (R) chose not to seek a third term.

Perhaps as a harbinger of things to come in the general election, Democratic primary turnout was significantly higher than Republicans. In fact, Cooper received over 140,000 more votes than the aggregate GOP total.

In a contest that was predicted to finish close, Rep. Valerie Foushee (D-Hillsborough/ Chapel Hill) is in a race that is still undecided, though she has a 1,202-vote lead with a small number of outstanding votes. Her Democratic primary challenge was Durham County Commissioner Nida Allam who received outside support estimated in the seven-figure range.

In the competitive 1st District, 2024 congressional nominee and ex-Pentagon official Laurie Buckhout won a close Republican primary, outlasting Carteret County Sheriff Asa Buck by a five percent margin. Buckhout now advances to the general election against Rep. Don Davis (D-Snow Hill) in a much more favorable Republican district than where the two battled two years ago. In the 2024 election, Davis was re-elected with less than a two-point re-election margin. NC-1 now becomes a top national Republican conversion opportunity.

Arkansas

Few incumbents were opposed in the Natural State primary. Rep. French Hill (R-Little Rock) was the only federal official who even had minor opposition. Rep. Hill was easily renominated with 77 percent of the vote. He will face Chris Jones, the 2022 Democratic gubernatorial nominee, in this year’s general election.

All in all, a very exciting 2026 first primary night.

March 3rd Primary Preview – Part II

2026 Texas Congressional Districts Map. Click here or on the above map to see an interactive version at: Dave’s Redistricting App.

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, March 3, 2026

Special Election

Yesterday, we previewed the Arkansas, North Carolina, and Texas Senate primaries. Today, we look at 20 of the Lone Star State’s 38 congressional districts that will see political action in today’s primary. Texas is a 50 percent runoff state, so expect many of the succeeding campaigns to advance into a May 26 secondary election featuring the respective top two finishers.

In Texas’ 2nd District, Congressman Dan Crenshaw (R-Humble) has primary opposition from state Rep. Steve Toft (R-The Woodlands). While Toft has good grass roots support from the conservative wing of the party, and even an endorsement from Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), Rep. Crenshaw has a major advantage in financial resources.

Though the Crenshaw victory margin will likely be lower than in the past, he is still favored to survive this challenge and win re-nomination.

The 8th District is open because Congressman Morgan Luttrell (R-Magnolia) is retiring after two terms. This is one of the seats that will possibly elect outright a new Republican nominee who will eventually win the general election. The former America First Principles Institute attorney, Jessica Steinmann, is in the political driver’s seat. She has all the key endorsements and very little opposition, a surprisingly easy run for a safe Republican open seat.

The 9th CD is a Texas redistricting map new creation. This is an eastern Harris County seat that will go Republican in the general election. We will likely see a runoff here between Trump endorsed Alexandra Mealer and state Rep. Briscoe Cain (R-Deer Park).

Tenth District Congressman Michael McCaul (R-Austin) is retiring from the House after serving what will be 22 years when Congress adjourns in this session. In his place will be another Republican, but we will likely see two of the 10 Republican candidates advancing into a runoff election from tonight’s plurality vote total.

Republican attorney, Chris Gober who runs Elon Musk‘s Super PAC, is likely to be one of those participants. Possibly, businessman Ben Bius could be the other. This will be another race to watch closely in the May 26 Republican runoff.

In the South Texas 15th District, Democrats are hosting a primary with two candidates vying for the opportunity of challenging Congresswoman Monica de la Cruz (R-McAllen) in the general election. Regional award-winning singer Bobby Pulido is a heavy favorite to win the party nomination tonight over emergency room physician Ada Cuellar. The general election, even though the district favors the two-term Congresswoman, will be competitive in November.

Back in Houston, the 18th District features an endangered incumbent who may lose renomination tonight. Veteran Rep. Al Green (D-Houston) is placed in the same district with the recently elected Christian Menefee, who won a special election on Jan. 31. The two are now vying for the regular term in the newly created 18th District in the 2025 Texas redistricting map.

Though Green represents much more of the current district than does Menefee (65 percent of the new district’s constituency compared to 26 percent), polling suggests that the younger man has the inside track tonight.

Lubbock GOP Congressman Jodey Arrington is retiring after this session of Congress, choosing not to seek a sixth term. His decision leaves another multi-candidate Republican primary battle that will likely end in a secondary runoff election.

Here in the 19th CD, agribusinessman Tom Sell has accumulated strong endorsements from the agriculture community along with raising the most money. He is likely to secure the first runoff position. Vying for second place appears to be Bienvenido organization head Abraham Enriquez, who has Gov. Greg Abbott’s endorsement, and Lubbock County Commissioner Jason Corley.

With Congressman Chip Roy leaving the House to run for Attorney General, his 21st San Antonio/Hill Country district is another of the 10 open Texas seats. Retired baseball player Mark Teixeira, who has President Trump‘s endorsement, faces a series of Republican opponents, including former Federal Election Commission chairman Trey Trainor.

It is clear that Teixeira has the advantage over his 11 opponents, but whether he can win outright or will advance to a runoff is the question that will be answered tonight.

The open 22nd District is unique. Rep. Troy Nehls (R-Richmond) is retiring, and his likely replacement is his identical twin brother, Trevor Nehls. The latter Nehls is a former Fort Bend County Constable. He is likely to win the Republican primary tonight without a runoff and is the odds-on favorite to replace his brother in the US House come November.

The 23rd District will be one of the seats that attracts the most attention tonight. Embattled incumbent Tony Gonzales (R-San Antonio) has been accused of having an extramarital affair with a staff member who later committed suicide through self-immolation, obviously a terrible and tragic story.

Gonzales was forced into a runoff in the 2024 election and survived by only a 354-vote margin. Firearms manufacturer Brandon Herrera, who held him to that small victory two years ago, is back for another run and certainly the controversy that engulfs Gonzales could well change the outcome of this particular election. Also in the race is former one-term Congressman Quico Canseco who has not been particularly active. Going to a runoff here is likely, which could spell the end of Gonzales’ congressional career.

The 28th District, which touches the Mexican border, appears headed to hosting another hotly contested general election. Veteran Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo) faces only minor opposition for the Democratic nomination but will see a top-level opponent in the general election. Webb County Judge (Executive) Tano Tijerina is expected to clinch the Republican nomination tonight, thus kicking off what promises to be a hot general election.

Many in the Republican Party expected Cuellar to switch parties after President Trump pardoned him from federal bribery charges, but such proved wishful partisan thinking. Look for this race to be in tossup mode all the way to November in a district that President Trump carried, 57-42 percent.

Returning to Harris County, Congresswoman Sylvia Garcia (D-Houston) sees sizable new territory in her Democratic 29th CD, and former state Representative and ex- Houston City Councilman Jarvis Johnson is opposing her for renomination.

Polling shows the Congresswoman ahead, but a minor third candidate creates the possibility that the first-place finisher, likely Rep. Garcia, is forced into a runoff. If so, all bets would be off for a May 26 secondary election. Irrespective of their nominee, the Democrats will hold the seat in November.

In Dallas County, Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Dallas) is leaving her 30th District to run for the US Senate. This is another of the open seats that could be decided tonight. Mega church Senior Pastor Frederick Haynes is favored over opponents Barbara Mallory Carraway, a former state Representative and ex-Dallas City Councilmember, and fellow pastor Rodney LaBruce.

Winning the Democratic nomination in this 30th District is tantamount to clinching the general election from this urban district.

Turning to Central Texas, veteran 31st District Congressman John Carter (R-Round Rock) is facing a large number of Republican opponents (nine), but none seem able to coalesce a majority against the veteran lawmaker. Carter is expected to win outright tonight even though defeating so many opponents with a majority vote is always a formidable task.

Back in Dallas, the 32nd district is a newly created Republican seat in the 2025 redistricting map. The seat stretches from East Dallas almost to the Lake of the Pines in East Texas. This is a Republican primary battle, and we will likely see a runoff among two of three contenders: former minor presidential candidate Ryan Binkley, businessman Paul Bondar who ran for Congress in Oklahoma two years ago, and attorney Jace Yarborough, who has a strong list of endorsements including one from President Trump.

In the new 33rd District, which is self-contained in west Dallas County, freshman Democratic Rep. Julie Johnson (D-Farmers Branch) is choosing to seek re-election in this seat since incumbent Marc Veasey (D-Ft. Worth) decided to retire.

In a surprise as candidate filing closed, former Congressman Colin Allred (D), who was expected to join the US Senate field, instead decided to run again for the House in the newly configured 33rd CD. This is another case where we may see an incumbent member defeated because Allred previously represented a part of this district and has enjoyed large leads in pre-primary polling and campaign resources.

Back in South Texas, the 34th District hosts a Republican primary with two candidates having the same surname. Former Congresswoman Myra Flores is again seeking to return to the House in this Brownsville anchored seat, and this time her main Republican opponent is attorney and Army veteran Eric Flores, who President Trump has endorsed. We will see which Flores wins the party nomination, but victory may require a runoff because six others are on the ballot.

The eventual GOP winner will challenge incumbent Vicente Gonzales in a hotly contested campaign from a newly drawn district that is much more Republican. In 2024, President Trump carried the new version of this southeast Texas CD that hugs the Gulf of America with 55 percent of the vote.

The new 35th District is anchored in South Bexar County (San Antonio) and then stretches into rural southeast Texas. Here, we see a crowded Republican primary with likely two people advancing to a runoff election, one of which is probably state Rep. John Lujan (R-San Antonio) who Gov. Abbott backs.

Local business owner Carlos De La Cruz (R), brother of Rep. Monica De La Cruz (R-McAllen), is a candidate in this district and has President Trump’s support. College professor Josh Cortez is another contender who could conceivably qualify for the GOP runoff. The eventual Republican nominee will be favored in the general election.

In Travis County, Congressman Lloyd Doggett (D-Austin) will not seek a 17th term, yielding instead to two-term Rep. Greg Casar (D-Austin) because the two were paired in the new 37th CD. Without major opposition, Rep. Casar is a lock for renomination and re-election.

The Harris County-anchored 38th District is open because Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston) is running for the Senate. This is yet another open Republican seat that has drawn multiple candidates. Among the 10 running for the GOP nomination, only one, Tomball School Board Member Michael Pratt, has won an election.

President Trump and many other Republican leaders have endorsed mortgage broker Jon Bonck. Expect the primary vote to yield a runoff. The eventual Republican nominee will be a lock for the general election.