Tag Archives: Arizona

Arizona Sen. Sinema Out of Running; More Super Tuesday News

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, March 7, 2023

Senate

Arizona: Sen. Sinema Bows Out — In addition to all the election results on Super Tuesday, Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I), not seeing a victory path for herself, announced that she would not seek a second term. The Independent senator thanked Arizonans in a video message (above) for allowing her to serve for 20 years in the state House of Representatives, the US House, and the US Senate. At least in the short term, the Sinema departure appears to give Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) the inside track to winning the Arizona Senate seat over former GOP gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake.

The Sinema retirement decision means there are eight open Senate seats among the 34 statewide campaigns in the current election cycle.

President

Nikki Haley, Dean Phillips: Exit Presidential Race — Yesterday brought two campaign suspension announcements that at least unofficially clinch the respective Democratic and Republican presidential nominations for President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump. Both Rep. Dean Phillips (D-MN) and ex-UN Ambassador Nikki Haley (R) indicated they are ceasing campaign activity, and thus ending any competition in the presidential nomination campaign.

Trump looks set to become the Republican presumptive party nominee on March 12, while President Biden will do so on March 19. The presumptive nominee is the individual who has secured a majority of legally bound first ballot delegates (1,968 for the Democrats; 1,215 for the Republicans), which guarantees a candidate the party nomination.

Rep. Phillips, who is not running for re-election to the House, publicly endorsed President Biden, while Haley did not announce support for Trump in her suspension declaration address, and said, “It is now up to Donald Trump to earn the votes of those in our party and beyond it who did not support him. And I hope he does that.”

Super Tuesday: GOP Turnout Overwhelms — In looking at the 14 Super Tuesday states where both parties held nomination events, in only two, California and Massachusetts, did more Democrats vote than Republicans. Among the more than 14.65 million people who voted in a major party Super Tuesday event, 60.6 percent chose to vote in the Republican primary. In even stalwart Democratic states such as Colorado, Maine, Minnesota, Vermont, and Virginia, more voters cast a Republican ballot than a Democratic. This is a bad sign for President Biden, as primary turnout often is a good indicator of voter enthusiasm.

Republican Leadership: Sen. Barrasso Not Running for Leader — Wyoming Sen. John Barrasso announced yesterday that he would not join the Republican Caucus battle for Leader to replace Mitch McConnell (R-KY). Instead, Sen. Barrasso announced that he will run for the Caucus’s number two slot, that of Senate Republican Whip. In the race for Leader are Sens. John Thune (R-SD) and John Cornyn (R-TX). Reports suggest that Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL) is also considering entering the race. Of the three potential Leader campaign combatants, Sen. Scott is the only one seeking re-election this year.

Sinema on the Rise; Tight Senate Poll in Nevada; Democrats Coalescing in OR-5; Jackson Lee Now in Close Texas Primary; Burgum Endorses Successor

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Feb. 29, 2024

Senate

Arizona incumbent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Arizona: Sinema on the Rise — Two new Arizona US Senate polls were just released, and both show a significant change in the race status. First, while previous polls were projecting Republican Kari Lake as holding a small lead, this pair sees Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) moving into first place and incumbent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, running on the Independent line, substantially improving her position. Previously, she was languishing in the teens, and now both surveys find her well in the 20-plus percentile range and back in competition to potentially win re-election.

Emerson College surveyed the Arizona electorate over the February 16-19 period (1,000 AZ registered voters; multiple sampling techniques) and the results find a 36-30-21 percent Gallego, Lake, and Sinema split.

Arizona based Noble Predictive Insights polled the state during the February 6-13 period (1,002 AZ registered voters; online) and found a similar result, 34-31-23 percent in the same order as the Emerson finding. These numbers suggest that the Sinema increase is coming at the expense of Lake and not Gallego, meaning she is pulling more Republicans and Republican-leaning Independents to her side than Democrats and Democratic leaning Independents.

Nevada: Tight Senate Poll Results — Emerson College, polling for The Hill newspaper and KLAS-TV in Las Vegas also polled the impending Nevada Senate race (Feb. 16-19; (1,000 registered Arizona voters; multiple sampling techniques) and already project a dead-heat contest. The results find Sen. Jacky Rosen (D), who is running for a second term, dropping to 40 percent support, and leading Afghanistan veteran Sam Brown (R) by only a 40-38 percent margin. The Nevada race will become a top-tier Republican challenge opportunity.

House

OR-5: Democrats Coalescing — Oregon’s 5th District race will be one of the most hotly contested US House campaigns in the country and is one of the keys toward deciding which party will control the chamber in the next Congress. One of the major OR-5 Democratic contenders ended her bid last week and endorsed an opponent. Lynn Peterson is the President of Portland’s Metro Council and was an announced congressional candidate. Seeing the race trends, Peterson dropped her bid and endorsed state Rep. Janelle Bynum (D-Clackamas), following the lead of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

The 2022 nominee, Jamie McLeod-Skinner, is in the race, but losing steam. She failed against current incumbent Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-Happy Valley) in 2022, and it’s clear the Democratic synergy is turning toward Rep. Bynum as the person most believe is the stronger candidate.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates OR-5 as D+3. President Joe Biden carried the seat by a 53-44 percent margin in 2020. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks the district as the ninth most vulnerable seat in the Republican Conference. In 2022, Chavez-DeRemer defeated McLeod-Skinner, 51-49 percent.

TX-18: Rep. Jackson Lee in Close Primary — The Hobby School of Public Affairs at the University of Houston conducted a survey (Feb. 7-17; 450 likely TX-18 voters; text & online) of the Houston-anchored 18th Congressional District and finds a close Democratic primary developing. The ballot test projects veteran Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Houston), reeling from a poor performance in the Houston mayor’s race, leading former Houston city councilwoman and 2020 US Senate candidate Amanda Edwards by only a 43-38 percent spread. Minor candidate Rob Slater, a convicted felon, captures three percentage points.

This survey suggests there is a political hangover for Jackson Lee who lost badly to now-Mayor John Whitmire (D), 64-36 percent, in the December mayoral runoff. Therefore, we see another March 5 race that will draw major interest.

Governor

North Dakota: Gov. Burgum Announces Endorsement — It appears we are headed for a highly competitive open North Dakota Republican primary on June 11. Retiring Gov. Doug Burgum (R) announced his endorsement late last week of Lt. Gov. Tammy Miller (R) to succeed him.

Miller already announced that she is bypassing the North Dakota Republican Party endorsing convention because she knows that at-large US Rep. Kelly Armstrong (R-Bismarck), a former party chairman, is a lock to be the official party candidate. This forces a primary election between the two, with the winner becoming the prohibitive favorite for the autumn campaign.

Trump Projected to Win Electoral College; California Primary Poll Jockeying; Texas Senate Race Numbers; NJ-8 Dueling Dem Polls

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Feb. 22, 2024

President

Former President Donald Trump

Decision Desk HQ: Projects Trump at 312 EVs — The Decision Desk HQ, in association with The Hill newspaper, has forecast a new 50-state electoral vote projection. All swing states are averaged based upon data from at least five recent polls. The new estimates give former President Donald Trump his largest-ever Electoral College vote lead, 312-226.

The key swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are all landing in the Trump camp according to DDHQ. To win the 2024 election, Trump needs to convert states that equal 35 electoral votes. According to this projection, Trump is improving his stance by 80 electoral votes when compared with his 2020 performance.

Senate

California: Primary Battle Over Second Place — Emerson College surveyed the California electorate in a partnership with The Hill newspaper and the Inside California Politics blog (Feb. 16-18; 1,000 registered California voters; 935 likely jungle primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) again found US Rep. Adam Schiff (D) leading the open US Senate field, this time with 28 percent of the vote. In second place, and for the first time with a sizable advantage over the third-place finisher, is former baseball great Steve Garvey (R) with 22 percent. Following are Reps. Katie Porter (D-Irvine) and Barbara Lee (D-Oakland) with 16 percent and nine percent, respectively.

The poll has a number of positive points for Garvey. Aside from the Emerson/Hill data suggesting he secures a general election slot, he does well with older voters. He registers a 33 percent preference total from those over 70 years of age, which is typically the highest turnout sector, and scores in second position with who voters believe would best handle the crime, homelessness, war in Israel, and immigration issues, while rating only three points below who would best handle abortion.

Additionally, the third-place finisher, Rep. Porter, does best with the youth vote, but this segment has the poorest participation history.

The California jungle primary is scheduled for Super Tuesday, March 5. The top two finishers regardless of political party affiliation or percentage attained will advance to the general election. Sen. Laphonza Butler (D), who Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) appointed to replace the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D), is not running for a full term.

Texas: Rep. Allred Establishes Strong Primary Lead, Cruz Likewise in General — YouGov, polling for the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin (Feb. 2-12; 1,313 registered Texas voters; 1,200 likely Texas primary voters; online), tested the Lone Star State electorate for the coming March 5 primary election, and found US Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas), who has been using his resource advantage to advertise heavily, exceeding the 50 percent threshold within the Democratic primary segment. According to the YouGov results, Allred records a 52 percent preference figure as compared to state Sen. Roland Gutierrez’s (D-San Antonio) 14 percent.

Former Nueces County District Attorney Mark Gonzalez and state Rep. Carl Sherman (D-Dallas) register support figures of only five and two percent.

Within the general election sample, however, the tables turn. Here, Sen. Ted Cruz (R) records his best polling stance of the current campaign, with a 46-32 percent margin over Rep. Allred. The Daily Kos Elections site analysts criticized the poll because the questionnaire did not assign a party label with each candidate. They reason that Allred would have received better support had such been the case.

Two points of disagreement: first, the primary question was asked before the general election question, thus the voters were already told that Allred was a Democrat. Second, it is more likely that Sen. Cruz, who has not been overly popular in the state, would have actually benefited more with party labels since Texas has been a solid state for the GOP since the early 1990s.

House

NJ-8: Dueling Internal Dem Primary Polls — Last week, Rep. Rob Menendez (D-Jersey City) released the results of his internal TargetSmart survey that posted him to a relatively strong 46-22 percent advantage over Hoboken Mayor Ravi Bhalla in their quest for the Democratic nomination. On Wednesday, the Bhalla campaign countered with their own poll, this one from GQR Research another highly rated polling firm. This data (released Feb. 20; 403 likely NJ-8 Democratic primary voters) finds a much different ballot test, with the incumbent leading only 44-41 percent.

These polls, seemingly both well conducted, are far apart in how they view the race. This will be another of the most interesting primary contests to watch during our current election cycle.

Rep. Mark Green to Retire; Another GOP Primary Challenger in AZ-1; Rep. Menendez Leading in NJ-8; New Mexico Senate Candidate Fails to Qualify

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Feb. 16, 2024

House

Tennessee Rep. Mark Green (R-Clarksville), US House Homeland Security Committee Chairman, announces his retirement. / Twitter

TN-7: Rep. Mark Green (R) to Retire — The second full House Homeland Security Committee chairman in less than a week announced Wednesday that he will not seek re-election later this year.

Tennessee US Rep. Mark Green (R-Clarksville) joins Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-WA) as Homeland Security Committee chairs most recently announcing their respective retirement. Reps. Kay Granger (R-TX) and Patrick McHenry (R-NC), who consecutively chair the Appropriations and Financial Services Committees, are also ending their long congressional careers.

Rep. Green said he has accomplished his promised goals in the House with the impeachment of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas and the passage of the border bill earlier in this Congress. As chairman of Homeland Security, he was a key figure in both actions.

AZ-1: Another GOP Primary Challenger for Rep. Schweikert — Arizona US Rep. David Schweikert’s (R-Fountain Hills) close 2022 re-election contest has attracted a number of Democrats and Republicans into the 2024 campaign. Yesterday, former FBI agent Kim George (R) announced her candidacy. Also battling the congressman for renomination are businessmen Robert Backie and P.T. Burton. The crowded field will likely help the congressman win the Aug. 6 plurality primary.

While businessman Jevin Hodge held Schweikert to a scant one-point general election victory he is not returning for a rematch, but no less than nine Democrats are running. Within this large group are former Arizona Democratic Party chairman Andrei Cherney, ex-state Rep. Amish Shah, and former news anchorwoman Marlene Galan-Woods, widow of former Attorney General Grant Woods (D).

The politically marginal 1st District is fully contained within Maricopa County and carries an R+7 rating from the FiveThirtyEight data organization. The seat is ranked as the 18th most vulnerable seat in the Republican Conference. President Joe Biden carried this district by a bare 50.1 – 48.6 percent margin in the 2020 election.

NJ-8: Internal Poll Finds Rep. Menendez Leading — Hoboken Mayor Ravi Bhalla’s Democratic primary challenge to freshman Rep. Rob Menendez (D-Jersey City), son of New Jersey Sen. Bob Menendez (D), may have lost some steam. Upon announcement, and at the height of Sen. Menendez’s legal trouble, Bhalla posted big fundraising numbers and appeared to mount some momentum toward unseating the younger Menendez in the June 4 primary.

Rep. Menendez’s campaign released an internal poll to the New Jersey Globe newspaper, without identifying the pollster (Jan. 25-Feb. 1; 400 registered NJ-8 Democratic voters; live interview) but publicizing the favorable ballot test. According to this data, Rep. Menendez maintains a 46-24 percent advantage over Mayor Bhalla.

This race still merits attention, particularly as Sen. Menendez continues to languish in statewide Democratic primary polling and is virtually a sure bet to lose the June election, assuming that he files a statement of candidacy at the end of next month. The Menendez campaign was quick to release one data point: 77 percent of the respondents agree that Rep. Menendez should be ‘judged on his own record, and not on that of his father.’

Senate

New Mexico: Ex-Sheriff Fails to Qualify for Senate Ballot — As we have seen in several places already in this election year, another potential candidate has been disqualified for failing to manage the petition signature requirement for ballot placement. Former Bernalillo County Sheriff Manny Gonzales (R) has failed to qualify for the June 4 Republican US Senate ballot according to the New Mexico Secretary of State, thus likely leaving former hedge fund CEO Nella Domenici as the party’s lone contender.

Assuming the decision holds, the New Mexico Senate general election will feature Domenici, the daughter of former six-term US Sen. Pete Domenici (R), and Sen. Martin Heinrich (D) who is seeking a third term. New Mexico is a Democratic state, so Sen. Heinrich is a clear favorite as the campaign officially starts, but Republicans believe that Domenici can become competitive.

Trump Expands Huge Lead in Primary States; Craig Suspends Senate Campaign; Primary Averted in NJ-9

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Feb. 15, 2024

President

Former President Donald Trump

South Carolina: Trump Expands Huge Lead — The international survey research firm YouGov, polling for CBS News (Feb. 5-10; 1,483 registered South Carolina voters; 1,001 likely South Carolina Republican presidential primary voters; online) finds former President Donald Trump expanding his previous ballot test lead over former UN ambassador and ex-South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley as the candidates move toward the Feb. 24 Palmetto State GOP primary. Trump secured 65 percent of the poll respondents’ support versus 30 percent for Haley.

Trump does much better as to who would perform better on all associated issue questions with the exception of which candidate is most likable. In terms of committed support, 87 percent of the individuals who say they support Trump report that their vote is firm. A total of 78 percent of Haley voters say the same about their support. A convincing Trump South Carolina victory in her home state will effectively end the Haley campaign.

Upcoming Primaries: Trump Way Ahead — The Morning Consult firm released the results of polls they conducted through key states with primaries on March 5, 12, and 19. The ballot tests are overwhelming in favor of former President Trump. In Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, and Ohio, Trump registers between 75 percent (Arizona) and 85 percent (Florida) of the Republican respondents. Haley posts support percentages only between 14 percent (Florida) and 20 percent (Illinois).

Senate

Michigan: Craig Suspends Senate Campaign — For the second election in as many cycles, retired Detroit Police Chief James Craig (R) has ended a political campaign before the candidate filing process even concludes. Craig announced that he is suspending his statewide US Senate campaign but may instead turn to what could be an open Detroit mayoral race in 2025.

With Craig departing the Senate race, former Congressman Mike Rogers (R) looks to be in good shape. Also in the GOP race is ex-US Rep. Peter Meijer, while another former congressman, Republican-turned-Libertarian Justin Amash, remains a potential entrant. The Michigan candidate filing deadline is April 23 in association with the Aug. 6 primary. US Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) is a prohibitive favorite to win the Democratic nomination.

House

NJ-9: Primary Averted — State Assemblywoman Shavonda Sumter (D-Paterson) ended her primary challenge to veteran Rep. Bill Pascrell (D-Paterson) after all three of the county Democratic Party organizations that comprise the 9th District voted to slate the 14-term incumbent. Therefore, Rep. Pascrell, who is 87 years old, will be a lock for the Democratic nomination and should again breeze to re-election in November.

New Jersey’s 9th Congressional District is anchored in Paterson and Passaic. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as D+17. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks NJ-9 as the 84th most vulnerable seat in the Democratic Conference.

DCCC’s Initial Targets

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Feb. 13, 2024

House

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) released their first targeting list entitled “Red to Blue,” though the group of 17 House districts actually contained one already in the Democratic column.

In alphabetical order by state, the list of 17 includes 16 Republican districts where the DCCC has endorsed a Democratic candidate:

STATE DISTRICT INCUMBENT DCCC CANDIDATE
Arizona 13 DUARTE, JOHN ENGEL, KIRSTEN
California 6 CISCOMANI, JUAN GRAY, ADAM
California 22 VALADAO, DAVID SALAS, RUDY
California 27 GARCIA, MIKE WHITESIDES, GEORGE
California 41 CALVERT, KEN ROLLINS, WILL
Colorado 3 OPEN FRISCH, ADAM
Iowa 1 MILLER-MEEKS, M. BOHANNON, CHRISTINE
Iowa 3 NUNN, ZACH BACCAM, LANON
Michigan 7 OPEN HERTEL, CURTIS
Michigan 1 ZINKE, RYAN TRANEL, MONICA
Nebraska 2 BACON, DON VARGAS, TONY
New York 3 SPECIAL ELECTION SUOZZI, TOM
New York 17 LAWLER, MIKE JONES, MONDAIRE
New York 19 MOLINARO, MARC RILEY, JOSH
Oregon 5 CHAVEZ-DeREMER, L. BYNUM, JANELLE
Texas 15 de la CRUZ, MONICA VALLEJO, MICHELLE
Virginia 2 KIGGANS, JEN SMASAL, MISSY COTTER

The Michigan district included in the above list is that of Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing). Her run for the Senate leaves her central Michigan seat open, but the Democrats winning here in 2024 would not result in a party division gain.

President Joe Biden carried only six the 16 Republican districts, and the FiveThirtyEight data organization provided a numerical rank so as to consider lean Democratic in those same six districts. Therefore, on this list, the half-dozen names below should be viewed as the most achievable targets, which, as you will see, are California and New York dominant.

They are:

  1. CA-13 (Duarte)
  2. CA-22 (Valadao)
  3. CA-27 (Garcia)
  4. NY-3 (Special election; Santos)
  5. NY-17 (Lawler)
  6. OR-5 (Chavez-DeRemer)

This underscores that the key states to determine the next House majority are the Golden and Empire States.

Most of the endorsed Democratic candidates (12 in the 16 Republican held seats) previously ran and lost their race in 2022. A total of 10 unsuccessfully opposed the current GOP House incumbent, while two lost other races (Tom Suozzi, Governor; Mondaire Jones, NY-10).

Curiously, some other vulnerable districts were excluded from this first release. Likely, this is due to one of three reasons: the DCCC has not yet endorsed a candidate; they don’t see a sufficiently competitive challenger within the current field; or, they perceive the Republican incumbent as being too strong.

They are:

DISTRICT CANDIDATE
AZ-1 David Schweikert
CA-40 Young Kim
CA-45 Michelle Steel
FL-13 Anna Paulina Luna
FL-27 Maria Elvira Salazar
MI-10 John James
NJ-7 Tom Kean Jr.
NY-4 Anthony D’Esposito
NY-22 Brandon Williams
PA-1 Brian Fitzpatrick
PA-10 Scott Perry
WI-1 Bryan Steil

Most of the members included within this latter group will be added to later target lists. The fact that Rep. Steil’s name is not yet appended to the “Red to Blue” listing suggests that the Wisconsin State Supreme Court may not order a redraw of the congressional map this cycle. Keeping Rep. Steil’s congressional district intact would give him little incentive to launch a statewide campaign against Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D).

At this point in the new redistricting process, Republicans are likely gaining a net one seat, but the New York redraw hasn’t yet occurred.

The GOP is assuredly gaining three seats from North Carolina, while the Democrats look to increase by one each in Alabama and Louisiana. Since the Georgia and Florida maps will not likely change for the 2024 election portends good news for Republicans; likewise for the Democrats in New Mexico.

McDaniel Reported Out at RNC; Trump Way Ahead in New Poll; Schiff Helps Garvey; Another Close Ohio Poll; Utah’s Tight Senate Race; House News

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Feb. 8, 2024

President

Ronna McDaniel / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Republican National Committee: Trump Recommends New Chairman — As reports intensify that RNC chair Ronna McDaniel will be leaving the committee after the South Carolina primary, former President Donald Trump has made a replacement recommendation.

The news media is reporting that North Carolina Republican Party chairman Michael Whatley is Trump’s choice largely because he was “so powerful on election fraud” in 2020, according to the ex-president’s statement. It is a virtual certainty that the committee members will adopt Trump’s recommendation, but the question to be asked is how strong a fundraiser is Whatley? While Trump may be most concerned with his election fraud narrative, the RNC is under-performing in the campaign resource battle and must quickly upgrade their efforts.

South Carolina: Trump Way Ahead in New Poll — A new Monmouth University poll for the Washington Post (Jan. 26-30; 815 registered South Carolina voters; live interview & online) sees former President Donald Trump posting a significant 58-32 percent lead over former Gov. Nikki Haley in her home state of South Carolina leading to the Feb. 24 Republican primary election.

Trump holds an advantage among both men and women in the statewide voter sample, and within all age groups. He trails Haley only among college-educated voters, but by only two points, and certain non-evangelical voter groups. Additionally, 90 percent of the respondents saying they would vote for Trump in the primary election would do so in the general election even if he is convicted of some of the many legal charges he faces.

Senate

California: Schiff Helps Garvey — Confident he will finish first in the March 5 open California US Senate primary, Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank) is running ads “against” Republican baseball great Steve Garvey claiming he is too conservative for California in that he twice voted for Donald Trump. In reality, Schiff is attempting to help Garvey finish second in the top two jungle primary, thus eliminating Rep. Katie Porter (D-Irvine), which would allow him to escape having to run a double-Democratic general election.

Having Garvey, or any Republican as an opponent, would virtually guarantee that Schiff would win the seat in November. The ads’ actual purpose is to move more Republicans to Garvey, and thus edge him into second place.

A new University of Southern California for the Center for Urban Politics and Policy at California State University at Long Beach (Jan. 21-29; 1,416 likely Califoria jungle primary voters) survey sees Rep. Schiff holding a 25-15-15-7 percent lead over Garvey and Rep. Porter (D-Irvine). Congresswoman Barbara Lee (D-Oakland) trailed the other major candidates in fourth position. Therefore, a small push from Schiff might just help Garvey succeed.

Ohio: Another Close Poll — The March 19 Ohio Republican primary will be a hugely important election. Among other races, it will decide which GOP candidate will challenge Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) in one of the country’s most compelling statewide campaigns. The Emerson College poll (Jan. 23-25; 1,844 registered Ohio voters; multiple sampling techniques) sees all three Republican candidates coming to within one or two points of Sen. Brown with the incumbent failing to reach 40 percent support in all iterations.

In the Republican primary, the battle is equally close. Businessman Bernie Moreno, who former President Trump and Sen. J.D. Vance support, nips Secretary of State Frank LaRose, 22-21 percent, with state Sen. Matt Dolan (R-Chagrin Falls) trailing with 15 percent. In 2022, Sen. Dolan came on strong at the end, failing to reach second place by one percentage point after lagging during the early part of the campaign. Therefore, the Republican nomination is still very much in doubt.

Ohio features a modified primary system that allows voters to change their registration on the day of the election in order to choose a selected primary.

Utah: Rep. Curtis Begins with Small Lead — Dan Jones & Associates, Utah’s top media polling firm, released a new US Senate Republican primary survey, the first since US Rep. John Curtis (R-Provo) joined the field. The survey (Jan. 16-21; 428 registered Utah Republican voters) finds Rep. Curtis posting a tepid 18-14 percent lead over attorney Brent Orrin Hatch, the son of the late seven-term Sen. Orrin Hatch (R). Following at eight percent is former state House Speaker Brad Wilson. With a majority of the Republican voters still undecided, this contest is wide open.

The state’s April Republican nominating convention will send two candidates to the primary ballot. The others will have to petition for a ballot line. The Utah primary is scheduled for June 25. Sen. Mitt Romney (R) is retiring after one term.
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