Tag Archives: Arizona

Final States Called for 2024; Gallego Wins Arizona; Five California Races Called; NE-2, OR-5 Winners

2024 Final Election Results / Click here for interactive map: CNN.com

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Nov. 11, 2024

National Vote

Final States Called: Presidential Map Complete — The final presidential map appears to be in the books with projections recorded for all 50 states and the District of Columbia. President-Elect Donald Trump clinched 312 electoral votes versus Vice President Kamala Harris’s 266 tally.

Trump won all seven battleground states, with North Carolina voting for him in all three of his elections. Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin again voted for Trump after doing so in 2016 but choosing President Joe Biden in 2020. Nevada, which voted Democratic in both 2016 and 2020, switched to Trump in this election year.

In the two previous elections, the winning candidate, Donald Trump in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020, received 306 electoral votes. For the first time, it appears Trump will also win the national popular vote. Though he won the 2016 election, Hillary Clinton scored a popular vote victory.

Senate

Arizona: Rep. Gallego Wins — In what was predicted to be an easier road for Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) to replace retiring Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I), the Grand Canyon State Senate race was finally projected over the weekend in the Democratic representative’s favor. With 89 percent of the Arizona vote tallied, Rep. Gallego tallies 49.7 percent support while his opponent, Republican former news anchor and 2022 gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake recorded a better than expected 48.2 percent. The raw number difference at this point in the counting is 44,882 votes.

With Republican victories over Senate Democratic incumbents in Montana, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, and winning the open Democratic seat in West Virginia, the Republicans will lead the new Senate with a 53-47 majority.

House

California: Five CA Races Called, Seven More Outstanding — As we will remember, California is the state that requires the longest period to count their votes. Over the weekend, five Golden State congressional races were called. Included in the list of official winners are Reps. Ami Bera (D-Elk Grove/Sacramento), David Valadao (R-Hanford), Julia Brownley (D-Westlake Village/Ventura), Jay Takano (D-Riverside), and Mike Levin (D-San Juan Capistrano).

The California seats will go a long way toward determining a House majority. Still uncalled are the races for Reps. Josh Harder (D-Truckee/Stockton), John Duarte (R-Modesto), Jim Costa (D-Fresno), Mike Garcia (R-Santa Clarita), Ken Calvert (R-Corona), and Michelle Steel (R-Orange County). Also uncalled is Orange County’s open 47th District. All of these incumbents with the exception of Rep. Garcia lead in the counting process. The outstanding vote percentage range stretches from 14-38 percent.

A total of 10 races remain uncalled and they will determine the House majority. Of the 10, the Republican candidate leads in six races. To claim a bare 218-217 majority, the Republicans need win only two of the 10 uncalled contests.

NE-2: Rep. Bacon Declared a Winner — While the election night counting trended against veteran Rep. Don Bacon (R-Papillion/Omaha), the political overtime tally yielded the opposite result and the congressman has unofficially been re-elected to a fifth term. With 95 percent of the vote now counted, Bacon clinched victory with 51.2 percent support as compared to state Sen. Tony Vargas’ (D-Omaha) 48.8 percent. The percentages reveal a Bacon margin of 7,150 votes from the 307,342 counted ballots.

OR-5: Rep. Chavez-DeRemer (R) Unseated — Though just a few incumbents were defeated in the 2024 election, another loss was projected over the weekend. Oregon freshman Republican Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-Happy Valley) failed in her campaign against state Rep. Janelle Bynum (D-Clackamas) who won a plurality vote victory. With 90 percent of the vote counted, Bynum clinched the election with a 47.8 to 45.0 percent margin, or a vote spread of 10,454 votes from the 372,162 counted ballots.

In addition to Rep. Chavez-DeRemer, the losing incumbents were New York Reps. Anthony D’Esposito (R-Island Park), Mark Molinaro (R-Red Hook), and Brandon Williams (R-Syracuse), along with Pennsylvanians Susan Wild (D-Allentown) and Matt Cartwright (D-Moosic/Scranton).

Race Update

2024 Electoral College Map: 270toWin

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Nov. 8, 2024

2024 Election Results

The presidential Electoral College map has been declared, and former President Donald Trump has clinched 312 electoral votes, or 42 more than the minimum to win the national election. He still leads the national popular vote count by 4.5 million tallies with mainly just a large percentage of Arizona and California remaining to be fully counted.

Trump was successful in turning all seven key battleground states to his coalition. His competitive state sweep includes Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

The total state count broke 31-20 (counting the District of Columbia) in favor of Trump, which is a gain of six states from his 2020 race with President Joe Biden.

With two more Senate races called, those in Nevada and Pennsylvania, the Republicans have secured 53 seats in the new Senate with only one contest, that in Arizona, still outstanding. Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) was projected the winner in Nevada with a 47.9 – 46.5 percent spread over Afghan War veteran Sam Brown. In Pennsylvania, in what is perhaps the biggest upset in the Senate races, businessman David McCormick (R) has been declared the winner over Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D). The margin of victory was 49.0 – 48.5 percent.

In the Arizona Senate contest, with 78 percent of the votes counted according to the Decision Desk HQ data website, Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) leads former news anchor and 2022 Arizona gubernatorial GOP nominee Kari Lake by 43,836 votes for a percentage breakdown of 49.8 – 48.1 percent in the congressman’s favor.

It appears that little change will occur in the House of Representatives for the next Congress, as the GOP is expected to hold its small majority and perhaps expand the margin by maybe two seats.

A total of only six seats at this writing are changing political party representation. The Democrats defeated three Republican incumbents in New York, while the GOP took down two Pennsylvania incumbents and secured an open Michigan Democratic seat.

California and Arizona feature nine of the 13 races yet to be called that will affect the partisan division. Of the 13, Democrats currently hold seven seats and Republicans, six. For the Democrats to secure just a one-seat majority, they would have to win all 13 House races currently not decided. At this point, the Republican candidate leads in six of the 13 contests.

Heading into the election, there were 55 open seats, but little change occurred in terms of party switching. Only six will be represented by a different party, and five of those are because of new redistricting maps in Alabama, Louisiana, and North Carolina. The only electoral pick-up at this point comes in Michigan’s 7th District where Republican former state Sen. Tom Barrett will replace Rep. Elissa Slotkin. The latter individual risked her House seat to run successfully for the US Senate.

Another open seat conversion could come in Orange County, California, as Republican Scott Baugh clings to a small lead in the open 47th District, the seat Rep. Katie Porter (D-Irvine) risked to run unsuccessfully for US Senate.

Outstanding Seats

The races not yet called are:

AL-AK (Rep. Mary Peltola-D)
AZ-6 (Rep. Juan Ciscomani-R)
CA-9 (Rep. Josh Harder-D)
CA-13 (Rep. John Duarte-R)
CA-21 (Rep. Jim Costa-D)
CA-27 (Rep. Mike Garcia-R)
CA-41 (Rep. Ken Calvert-R)
CA-45 (Rep. Michelle Steel-R)
CA-47 (Open seat-D)
CA-49 (Rep. Mike Levin-D)
CO-8 (Rep. Yadira Caraveo-D)
OR-5 (Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer-R)
WA-3 (Rep. Marie Glusenkamp Perez-D)

Two other races are uncalled, both from California, but the leader has a large advantage that likely won’t change. They are: CA-6 (Rep. Ami Bera-D) and CA-39 (Rep. Jay Takano-D).

Outstanding Senate Races

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Nov. 7, 2024

Senate

Click on above image or here to go to interactive Senate update map: CNN

While the Republicans have secured at least 52 seats in the new Senate resulting from their candidates’ partisan conversion victories in Montana, Ohio, and West Virginia, three more races remain uncalled. Those are found in Arizona, Nevada, and Pennsylvania.

After polling consistently projected Arizona Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) running well ahead of former news anchor and 2022 Republican gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake for most of the general election campaign cycle, the race closed at the end.

The current totals, not final because approximately 1.04 million votes remain to be counted find Rep. Gallego leading Lake, 50.0 percent to 47.9 percent, which translates to a vote margin of 52,581 votes according to the CNN elections page.

In order to win the race, Lake would have to capture approximately 545,000 of the remaining votes, which would mean a support factor of approximately 53 percent, or an increase of about five percentage points from her current tally.

In the current count, Rep. Gallego leads in only five of the state’s 15 counties, but commands 51.6 percent support in dominant Maricopa County, which contains almost 62 percent of the state’s population.

As he has been throughout the election cycle, Rep. Gallego is favored to claim the seat and succeed Independent Kyrsten Sinema as one of Arizona’s two senators. This race, however, is closer than originally predicted and verifies the late polling data that detected a surge in Lake’s favor.

In Nevada, Afghan War veteran Sam Brown (R) leads Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) by 2,188 votes statewide in a race that has yet to be called. Approximately 10 percent of the vote remains outstanding.

In dominant Clark County, which houses approximately 70 percent of the state’s population, approximately 47,367 votes remain to be counted. At this point, Sen. Rosen has 50 percent of the Clark County vote as compared to 44.5 percent for Brown. For a Republican to win a Nevada statewide race, however, he or she needs approximately 44 percent of the Clark County vote, so Brown is well within victory range.

In the state’s remaining 16 counties, approximately 79,578 votes remain. For Brown to upset Sen. Rosen, he would need to attract 47.5% of the outstanding vote since he currently leads the statewide tally by 2,188 votes according to the CNN election results Nevada page. Therefore, this race is very much alive for either candidate.

The third and final outstanding Senate race lies in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. Here, challenger David McCormick (R) leads veteran Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D), by 30,669 votes from approximately 6.81 million ballots cast. The CNN election results page suggests that 97 percent of the total vote has been counted, meaning just over 62,000 votes remain if the total vote estimate is correct.

If so, this would mean that Sen. Casey would have to attract a full percentage point more than his current total from the remaining vote number, understanding that three independent and minor party candidates are attracting a combined 2.6 percent.

While Rep. Gallego is in the prime position to capture the Arizona seat, the two Republicans in Nevada and Pennsylvania are mathematically in slightly better position to win their respective elections simply because their current leads mean they need less of the outstanding vote than their opponents.

While the mathematics suggest that both challengers Brown and McCormick have the easier path to victory, such may not be the case in the real world of politics.

With the Republicans sitting at 52 seats in the new Senate, winning either Nevada or Pennsylvania would bring them to 53, while taking both would create a 54R-46D chamber split. This would put them in prime legislative position for the coming congressional session.

Early Voting Wrap Up; Iowa Polling Disparity; Pennsylvania Swinging Towards Trump; Arizona Senate Race Closer Than Expected; Michigan’s Mirror Images; Virginia Outlier Poll

Review data on: TargetSmart

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Nov. 4, 2024

Early Voting Wrap Up

Early Gender Numbers: Analysts Missing the Point — News reports are covering the early vote totals and report after report states that women are voting in greater numbers than men. While the raw numbers indicate such, the historical trends suggest something slightly different.

When comparing the gender participation segments from the previous presidential year of 2020 to this year, women are up just two-tenths of one percent while men, compared to their previous performance in a presidential year, are up one-half of a percentage point. This data comes from the Target Early/TargetSmart organization and is based upon more than 55 million early votes cast (at this writing) for the 2024 election.

Compared to the 2022 midterm, women are up slightly more than half a point, while men are down by that same amount. Perhaps the more significant finding is the increase in rural voting that appears evident around the country and the decrease detected in urban voter participation.

Closings: Early Voting Ends in All Seven Battlegrounds — All seven battleground states have concluded their early voting periods, and generally the results appear to be better for Republicans than past early voting years. The move to get their voters to the polls early looks to have produced results for the GOP.

The two biggest swings come in North Carolina and Nevada where, for the first time in history, more Republicans have voted early than Democrats. The Arizona vote count looks good for the GOP, too. The Harris campaign likely is pleased with what they see coming from Michigan and especially Wisconsin. Republican early turnout in the Badger State appears particularly low. Georgia and Pennsylvania show mixed patterns, meaning we are likely again headed for very close finishes in both of those states.

The early vote data is collected and reported by the TargetEarly/TargetSmart organization.

President

Iowa: Des Moines Register Poll Sees Lead Change — The Des Moines Register/Mediacom Poll is always viewed as the gold standard of Iowa prediction models. Their pre-election survey (Oct. 28-31; 808 likely Iowa voters; live interview) finds Vice President Kamala Harris all of a sudden leading Donald Trump, 47-44 percent, largely because of a huge break toward the former among women, particularly those who are aged 65 and older.

Yet, simultaneously, Emerson College released their Iowa survey and finds a much different result, one that is more in line with previous data. The Emerson survey (Nov. 1-2; 800 likely Iowa voters; multiple sampling techniques) sees former President Donald Trump holding a nine point lead, 54-45 percent. This is also closer to Iowa voting history. In 2016, Trump carried the state 51-42%, and 53-45% in 2020.

An Iowa win for Harris would turn the electoral map topsy turvy and potentially send the final result on a completely different course. This situation bears watching as we close in on election day. Iowa has six electoral votes.

Pennsylvania: Swinging Towards Trump — A total of six current polls from five different Keystone State pollsters all find former President Donald Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris in Pennsylvania ballot test results. The range is relatively wide.

The Echelon Insights survey (Oct. 27-30; 600 likely Pennsylvania voters; live interview & text) posts Trump to a 51-46 percent count on the multi-candidate ballot. The poll swinging the most from that result comes from Fox News (Oct. 24-28; 1,057 likely Pennsylvania voters; live interview & online) and suggests the two candidates are tied with 48 percent apiece.

Viewed together, the two are a good example of how different pollsters can arrive at significantly different results even when testing the same race during the same relative time frame. With so many polls showing many different outcomes regarding the various campaigns, it is now time to sit back and let the actual votes determine the final result.

Senate

Arizona: Closer Than Expected — Earlier this week, we covered a new poll regarding the Arizona Senate race that posted former news anchor Kari Lake (R) running slightly ahead of Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) in the open Senate race. The poll, which forecast Lake holding a one-point edge, came from the Data Orbital firm over the Oct. 26-28 period.

Now, we see another survey arriving at the same conclusion. AtlasIntel released their latest Arizona poll (Oct. 30-31; 1,005 likely Arizona voters) and the conclusion was identical to that of the previous Data Orbital survey, that being Lake holding a small one-point lead.

Two other pollsters were also in the field during the similar period. Another AtlasIntel survey was conducted during the Oct. 25-29 period, and they saw the opposite result: Rep. Gallego leading by the same one-point margin. A fourth poll was also introduced (Noble Predictive Insights; Oct. 28-30; 775 likely Arizona voters) and this ballot test returned Rep. Gallego to a four-point edge.

While all the polls before October gave Gallego substantial leads, there is now significant data showing a closing of the race. Though Rep. Gallego is still the likely winner, this race may now join a couple of the Arizona House races in political overtime.

Michigan: Mirror Images — Two surveys were released of the Michigan electorate that ended on the same day and produced the same 49-47 percent ballot test conclusion, except each found a different candidate reaching the 49 percent figure. Mitchell Research and Communications, polling for the Michigan News Source (Oct. 28-29; sample size undisclosed) sees former Congressman Mike Rogers (R) with the slight lead, while AtlasIntel (Oct. 25-29; 983 likely Michigan voters) arrived at the opposite conclusion. The latter finds Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) clinging to the two-point edge.

This is an excellent example of two professional pollsters testing the same electorate at the same time and arriving at an opposite conclusion. This makes us remember that polls give us a broad snapshot within a stated margin of error at the time a survey is conducted and reminds us that surveys are meant to show trends over a long period as opposed to who might be leading a campaign at a given time.

Virginia: Outlier Poll Finds Hung Cao Down 1 — In another strange polling situation, one even the conducting pollsters admit is probably an outlier, Virginia US Senate candidate Hung Cao (R) has pulled into just one point of Sen. Tim Kaine (D) on the Chism Strategies survey (10/28-30; 520 VA likely voters; live interview & text; part of a three state series), 46-45%. No other data shows such a close result.

Two other late October polls (Oct. 25-29), conducted by Roanoke College and the Cygnal polling firm, see double digit leads (11 and 10 points, respectively), which is consistent with projections that Sen. Kaine will easily win re-election. As a point of reference, the Chism poll also sees a close Virginia presidential race. Their ballot test finds Harris and Trump effectively in a tie. This, too is refuted by other pollsters.

House

ME-2: A Huge Polling Range — Continuing the theme of divergent polling, we see another example in northern Maine where Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) is in a tough re-election battle with Republican state representative and former NASCAR driver Austin Theriault.

Survey USA, conducting a statewide poll (Oct. 24-29; 1,079 likely Maine voters; 484 likely ME-2 voters; online), finds Rep. Golden posting a 53-41 percent lead over Theriault even while Trump leads Harris, 49-44 percent in the same district, a CD that the former has carried in both of his previous elections.

In another survey taken during a slightly earlier period, Axis Research, polling for the National Republican Congressional Committee (Oct. 17-20; 411 likely ME-2 voters; live interview & text), actually sees Theriault leading 47-45 percent. Therefore, we see a 14-point polling span between these two studies. With so many surveys being released at the end of the cycle, it is rather routine to see data results producing wildly comparative swings, and the final days of the 2024 election is apparently no exception to such a trend.

Senate Races Tightening

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Nov. 1, 2024

Senate

Former news anchor and 2024 Senate GOP nominee Kari Lake. Photo by Gage Skidmore

As the election cycle culminates, recent polling is showing no less than seven US Senate races all within two percentage points or less.

After a summer of substantially trailing US Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) in the open Arizona Senate race, a trio of polls find former Phoenix news anchor Kari Lake (R) narrowing the gap between the two contenders.

The three surveys, from The Trafalgar Group, Data Orbital, and AtlasIntel, all taken during the Oct. 24-29 period with sampling universes ranging between 550 and 1,458, produce ballot test scores with Lake closing to within four points (Trafalgar) and one point (AtlasIntel), and with her actually leading by a point (Data Orbital) in the final survey.

The AtlasIntel group has conducted a series of Senate polls. In Michigan (Oct. 25-29; 983 likely Michigan voters) the pollsters see Rep. Elissa Slotkin’s (D-Lansing) lead over former US Rep. Mike Rogers (R) dropping to just two percentage points, 49-47 percent.

The New York Times and Siena College tested the surprisingly tight Nebraska race where Independent Dan Osborn is challenging two-term Republican Sen. Deb Fischer. The poll (Oct. 23-26; 1,194 likely Nebraska voters) finds a two-point lead for the incumbent, which is a rebound from other studies that showed her trailing. The ballot test yields Fischer a 48-46 percent margin.

The Trafalgar Group research organization also finds that the Nevada race between Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) and Afghan War veteran Sam Brown (R) is closing to within two points, a major change in a contest where the incumbent appeared to have a secure lead. The Trafalgar data (Oct. 25-28; 1,082 likely Nevada voters) projects Sen. Rosen leading, 47-45 percent.

Trafalgar also returned results for the Ohio Senate race featuring Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) and businessman Bernie Moreno (R). This poll (Oct. 25-28; 1,127 likely Ohio voters) sees the senator leading with a bare edge of 48-47 percent.

AtlasIntel tested the tight Pennsylvania race (Oct. 25-29; 1,299 likely Pennsylvania voters) and they also see a two-point race evolving. The ballot test gives Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D) a 49-47 percent margin over GOP businessman and retired hedge fund CEO David McCormick.

From Oct. 20-27, eight polls from eight different polling firms were conducted of the Wisconsin Senate race. In one of the surveys, both Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) and businessman Eric Hovde (R) were tied. In the other seven polls, the margin is one point. Sen. Baldwin led in five of the surveys, while the OnMessage and Insider Advantage firms found Hovde holding the slight edge. The bottom line is that this race is effectively a dead heat.

As we approach Election Day, we see not only the Senate races getting closer, but the presidential contest coming down to just a few electoral votes in a limited number of states, and a House majority that could literally be decided by one or two campaigns.

Even at this late date, it is still possible for both parties to capture a legislative trifecta. That is, where one party controls the White House, the Senate, and the House of Representatives. Should Vice President Kamala Harris win the presidency, and either Sens. Fischer or Ted Cruz (R-TX) go down and/or Sen. Jon Tester rebounds (D) and pulls a come-from-behind win in the Montana race, the Democrats could conceivably retain Senate chamber control. In the House, the Democrats could certainly score a close majority.

Conversely, former President Donald Trump could win the presidency and Republicans almost certainly flip West Virginia and Montana Senate races, and possibly one or two more from the list above. With momentum at the top of the ticket, the House battles could see a more favorable turnout pattern thus allowing enough GOP challengers to prevail and retain their slight majority. This would create a Republican trifecta.

At this point, where the campaigns are almost complete and all that remains is the counting, as much uncertainty remains today as was present at the beginning of the election cycle.

Harris Cancels Ad Buy; Lake Closes Gap in Arizona; Lawler Hanging On in NY-17; Cartwright Leading in PA-8

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Oct. 31, 2024

President

Vice President Kamala Harris / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Ad Transfer: Musk Reports Harris Canceling North Carolina Ads — Elon Musk broke the story on X that Vice President Kamala Harris’s campaign is canceling a $1.7 million ad buy in North Carolina. There is a belief that the money will be used for a new ad purchase in Virginia. A recent poll from Quantas Insights (Oct. 22-25; 725 likely Virginia voters) found Harris leading former President Donald Trump by only one percentage point in the Old Dominion. Other polls conducted of the Virginia electorate in the similar time frame, from the Washington Post/George Mason University and Christopher Newport University, see Harris holding much larger leads at six and 11 points, respectively.

The Harris ad move makes sense if the campaign strategists believe there is some weakness in Virginia, and possibly New Hampshire, because Harris winning North Carolina would be a luxury but not a necessity. Winning there would mean an early clinch, but Virginia and New Hampshire are must-wins in order to maintain Harris’s overall winning coalition of states.

Senate

Arizona: Lake Closing the Gap — After a summer of substantially trailing Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) in the open Arizona US Senate race, a trio of polls finds former Phoenix news anchor Kari Lake (R) narrowing the gap between the two contenders.

The three surveys, from The Trafalgar Group, Data Orbital, and AtlasIntel, all taken during the Oct. 24-29 period with sampling universes ranging between 550 and 1,458, see ballot test scores with Lake closing to within four points (Trafalgar) and one point (AtlasIntel), with her actually leading by a point (Data Orbital) in the final survey.

The fact that we see three pollsters coming within the polling margin of error, and one that pushes Lake ahead for the first time since the two candidates were even in a National Republican Congressional Committee at the end of July, suggests that this race should draw more attention in the closing week.

House

NY-17: Rep. Lawler Hanging On — Freshman New York Rep. Mike Lawler (R-Pearl River), one of the most endangered House incumbents for this election cycle, received good news from a new Emerson College poll (for the Hill Newspaper; Oct. 24-26; 475 likely NY-17 voters; multiple sampling techniques). The ballot test found Rep. Lawler leading former Rep. Mondaire Jones (D) by five percentage points, 49-44 percent.

Rep. Lawler unseated then-Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee chairman Sean Patrick Maloney in 2022 from a district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rated as D+7. The Down Ballot political blog ranks the seat as the sixth most vulnerable district in the House Republican Conference.

PA-8: Rep. Cartwright Leading Again — Six-term Pennsylvania US Rep. Matt Cartwright (D-Moosic/Scranton) has held what was transformed into a Republican seat since former President Trump carried a different version of the district back in 2016. A new Noble Predictive Insights survey (Oct. 23-25; 406 likely PA-8 voters; live interview and text) again finds Democratic Rep. Cartwright leading, this time against GOP businessman Rob Bresnahan, 50-43 percent.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the 8th District as R+8. The Down Ballot political blog ranks the seat as the fourth most vulnerable seat in the Democratic Conference. At this point in early voting, more Democrats have cast ballots, which is typical for Pennsylvania. Republicans, however, are up seven points from their 2020 performance in this district and 10 points when compared to 2022. Conversely, Democrats are off almost seven points from 2020 and 11 points from 2022.

Rep. Cartwright has won his last two elections with 52 and 51 percent in 2020 and 2022. The 2024 election will likely end closer than the Noble poll suggests, but Rep. Cartwright still must be considered the favorite to win another term.

Catholic Voter Survey Results Show Trump Ahead; Michigan Senate Race Heats Up; Rep. Bishop in Tight Georgia Race; Conflicting CA-49 Data

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Oct. 17, 2024

President

Former President Donald Trump holds a large swing state lead according to a Catholic voter survey.

Catholic Voter Survey: Voters Leaning Toward Trump — The National Catholic Reporter commissioned a voter survey in seven swing states, and particularly in Michigan and Wisconsin, former President Donald Trump has opened a large lead: a dozen points in Michigan and 18 in Wisconsin.

Looking at the seven states as a whole, Trump holds a 50-45 percent advantage over Vice President Kamala Harris within the Catholic sample. The survey was conducted by Mercury Analytics (Oct. 3-8; 1,172 Catholic voters in AZ, GA, MI, NV, NC, PA and WI; online). Harris, however, does well with black (77 percent support) and Hispanic (67 percent support) Catholics within this sampling universe. Trump dominates among white voters with a 16 percent advantage.

Interestingly, the NCR analysis indicated that the Catholic respondents, “were more likely to say they support their preferred candidate for reasons that go against [Catholic] church teaching, with Trump supporters favoring his anti-[illegal] immigration policies and Harris voters backing her views on reproductive rights.”

In the swing states, the largest Catholic percentage of the state population is in Wisconsin (25 percent) and Nevada (25 percent), with Pennsylvania closely following (24 percent). Arizona (21 percent) and Michigan (18 percent) are next, while Georgia (nine percent) and North Carolina (nine percent) lag behind.

Senate

Michigan: Republicans Up Investment — The Fabrizio Ward (R) and Impact Research (D) firms partnered on a Michigan voter poll for AARP (Oct. 2-8; 600 likely Michigan voters from a universe of 1,382 registered Michigan voters; live interview and text) and the results project that Congresswoman Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) holds a 49-46 percent edge over former Rep. Mike Rogers (R). The presidential vote, as a point of reference, was tied a 46 percent apiece between Harris and Trump.

The results of this and other similar polls were enough to convince the Senate Leadership Fund to spend an additional $10.5 million in media time. The new expenditure brings the SLF entire investment to $33 million. It appears the three Senate races in which Republicans see recent positive movement are Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin.

House

GA-2: Rep. Bishop (D) in Surprising Close Race — Georgia Rep. Sanford Bishop (D-Albany) was first elected to Congress in 1992 and has rarely had a close election. A newly released survey from the co/efficient polling firm (Oct. 3-4; 847 likely GA-2 voters; live interview & text) for Republican nominee Wayne Johnson finds the challenger trailing Rep. Bishop by just three percentage points, 45-42 percent. This is a race that had not been considered competitive and has drawn little in the way of national attention.

Georgia’s 2nd District carries a partisan rating of D+4, according to the FiveThirtyEight data organization. The Down Ballot political blog ranks GA-2 as the 36th most vulnerable seat in the Democratic Conference. Though the seat had not been considered in play, it will now be watched for further developments. Whether outside groups from either side begin spending late money here is a point to be observed.

CA-49: Conflicting Data — As recently as last week, a Survey USA poll of California’s coastal 49th District (Oct. 2-6; 617 likely CA-49 voters) found that three-term Rep. Mike Levin (D-San Juan Capistrano) was comfortably ahead of Republican Matt Gunderson by a 12-point margin, 53-41 percent. Now, the National Republican Congressional Committee has countered with their 1892 organization survey that produces a much different result.

According to the 1892 data (Oct. 5-8; 400 likely CA-49 voters), the gap separating the two candidates is only one point, 46-45 percent, in Rep. Levin’s favor. The nature of this district suggests a close Democratic edge (FiveThirtyEight: D+5), so chances are that the wide range of these two polls likely lands in the middle. Therefore, Rep. Levin must still be viewed as residing in the favorite’s position.

Political Overtime

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Oct. 14, 2024

Election Day

It is quite possible that we will not know the outcome of the presidential election or certainly the US House majority on election night, meaning an undetermined number of days will be required to finally arrive at a definitive winner, or sets of winners in an US House election cycle that promises to deliver multiple tight finishes.

Close elections will bring much scrutiny, and outcomes of several key races in such a situation may not occur until shortly before the state election certification deadline, which in some instances means the middle of December.

There is a strong likelihood that we will see US Senate results on election night. With West Virginia sure to flip from Democrat to Republican and the Montana race today leaning decidedly Republican could mean that a new GOP majority would be announced on election night.

Should, however, an unexpected upset of a Republican member, i.e., Sens. Rick Scott (FL), Deb Fischer (NE), or Ted Cruz (TX), occur, then political overtime is possible, and an extended counting period would come into play if the affected races’ outcomes will determine majority control.

The presidential election is already coming down to seven key swing states, and the domain in this category with the longest certification period is Georgia with a 2024 certification deadline of Dec. 27. The battleground state with the shortest certification period is Nevada, which is Nov. 19.

The unofficial Arizona deadline is Dec. 2; Michigan is Nov. 25; North Carolina will be Nov. 26; and Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are both unofficially scheduled to certify their election results by Nov. 28.

Therefore, if only a few votes in one or more of these states or districts is separating the candidates and the outcome is unclear, then it could be close to a month after election day until we discover a winner. Thus, 2024 could be reminiscent of the 2000 election in Florida, which consumed 36 days to finally determine that George W. Bush had won the state and thereby the election.

The most likely political overtime scenario, however, involves the House majority. Currently, Republicans hold a five-seat edge, but this election could conceivably deliver an even smaller controlling margin to either party. If so, then the races that are forced into political overtime — and in House races there are usually several — will have a direct effect upon which party controls the chamber.

In this case, mid-December could well be the deciding timeline. California and New York, where both states have several competitive races, also have the longest certification periods. In this election year, New York and California election certification deadlines are Dec. 12 and 13, respectively.

Other states where we could see House political overtime are Maine and Alaska, which have certification deadlines of Nov. 25 and 26, while a number of states that feature competitive House races will certify on Dec. 2: Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Montana, Nebraska, and Virginia.

Even later are Connecticut and Washington (both on Dec. 5), and Oregon on Dec. 12.

While the political world will be in great anticipation of election day, Nov. 5, particularly for determining the House majority, that date may be only the start of what promises to be a laborious and contentious post-election period. At this writing, it appears almost certain that political overtime will be necessary to determine which party will ultimately control a small House majority.

Polling Series – Still Anybody’s Game; However, Nevada, Pennsylvania & Wisconsin are Most Critical

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Oct. 9, 2024

Swing States

British pollster Redfield & Wilton Strategies released the results of their latest US presidential battleground state polling series for the United Kingdom’s Telegraph publication. The results clearly indicate that the race, with just under a month until election day, is still very much up for grabs.

The series covered nine states, including the domains virtually everyone considers as battlegrounds: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The pollsters then added two more that are likely to break for one party or the other with relatively substantial margins: Florida is going to vote for Republican former President Donald Trump, while Minnesota will remain safely in the Democratic column for Vice President Kamala Harris.

The polls were conducted during the Sept. 27-Oct. 2 period, and the sample sizes ranged from a low of 514 respondents in Nevada to a high of 5,686 who participated in Pennsylvania. In the nine states, a total of 18,875 individuals responded to the online poll questions.

Counting Florida and Minnesota in the respective Republican and Democratic columns, the seven battlegrounds all fell into a range of four points, from +2 to -2. Trump led in North Carolina (+2) and Arizona (+1). Harris held the slightest of edges in four states: Michigan (+2), Nevada (+1), Pennsylvania (+1), and Wisconsin (+1). The pair drew dead even in Georgia.

The bottom line is that all of the battlegrounds, according to this data and most other, are in toss-up status and each of the deciding states could still fall to either candidate.

Looking ahead, the most important domain on the current board appears to be North Carolina. The Tar Heel State is a must win for Trump. If Harris wins this state, she will likely claim the national election.

Conversely, if Trump were to hold North Carolina, win Georgia and Pennsylvania, all of which is highly possible, he would clinch the election. Keeping North Carolina in his category and taking both Georgia and Pennsylvania, and assuming the other 24 states and the 2nd District of Maine that all voted for him twice remain in his camp for the 2024 election, means Trump would convert the 35 electoral votes he needs to clinch the presidency.

Should Harris break through in either North Carolina or Georgia, she would be virtually assured of national victory.

Previously, we reported on a Trump under-poll pattern in Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. There we saw either a significant understatement of Trump’s support in the Silver, Keystone, and Badger States, or a surge for him in the final month of the campaign.

In any event, his actual performance in each of these states in 2020 was better than what was indicated in July through October polling by a margin of 2.8 percentage points in Pennsylvania, and 3.7 points in Nevada. Trump outperformed his Wisconsin polling by an even larger 5.93 percent clip.

There is no guarantee that the same 2020 pattern in these states will again occur, but if it does, the three states would cumulatively deliver the 35 electoral votes (NV 6; PA 19; WI 10) that Trump needs to reclaim the White House. Therefore, the Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin path is one of the few Trump winning scenarios that would yield a national victory without including the state of Georgia.

Basically, the Redfield and Wilton research again shows that both candidates have a virtually equal chance of winning the November election and will do so with a combination of several of these critical swing domains discussed above.

Senate Recap – Part I

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Oct. 2, 2024

Senate

In a three-part series, we examine the latest in the 21 US Senate races that are either competitive or where a new senator will succeed an incumbent not seeking re-election. In alphabetical order, we begin today with Arizona and move through Michigan. Tomorrow, we look at Minnesota through New Mexico, and on Friday, end with the competitive races from Ohio to Wisconsin.

Arizona Rep. Ruben Gallego (D)

Arizona — Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I) is retiring after one term, and it appears that Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) will be her successor in January. Rep. Gallego has successfully created a more moderate image than his record in the House might depict. His campaign is emphasizing his military record and addresses the border issue, which has greater effect in Arizona than most states.

Republicans, nominating former news anchor and 2022 gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake, have also yielded the inside track to Rep. Gallego. Lake’s continued accusations that voter fraud cost her the 2022 election has soured most swing voters. Rep. Gallego leads in all polls, and with an average position of 7-plus points in nine September polls and two tracks. Expect Rep. Gallego to officially claim the seat in November.

California — While former baseball great Steve Garvey (R) performed well in California’s crowded jungle primary election back in June, and even placed first in the special election to permanently replace the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D), he is no match for Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank) in a two-way match.

Schiff’s advertising about Garvey being too conservative during the primary helped elevate the Garvey candidacy with Republicans, thus the congressman got the general election opponent he desired. A GOP candidate has virtually no chance today in a California statewide race. Schiff will win in a landslide.

Delaware — Sen. Tom Carper (D) is retiring and leaves the seat to at-large Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester (D-Wilmington). This open race is nothing more than an easy re-election bid for the congresswoman who already represents the entire state.

Florida — Sen. Rick Scott (R) is on the ballot for a second term, after winning his initial federal election by just over 10,000 votes from more than eight million ballots cast. In that election, Scott, then the state’s governor, unseated veteran Sen. Bill Nelson (D). This time, Sen. Scott faces former Congresswoman Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D), who held a south Florida seat for one term before current Rep. Carlos Gimenez (R-Miami) unseated her in 2020.

While polling again shows a close race – Sen. Scott leads by just over three percentage points in seven September polls and two tracks – the Florida electorate’s political composition has drastically changed from six years ago.

In 2018, when Sen. Scott was first elected, Democrats outnumbered Republicans by over 257,000 registrants. Today, Republicans hold a 956,000-plus advantage over Democrats, meaning the state has changed in the GOP’s favor by more than 1.2 million individuals. This is the main reason that pollsters underestimated the 2022 Florida statewide Republican strength by an average of seven points.

Expect Sen. Scott to win by a bigger margin than the polling currently indicates.

Indiana — With first-term Sen. Mike Braun (R) eschewing a second term to launch what appears to be a successful run for governor, Rep. Jim Banks (R-Columbia City) finds himself with one of the easiest open Senate runs in decades. Banks was unopposed in the Republican primary and is pitted against a weak Democratic contender in the general election. Rep. Banks will easily win the Senate seat in November and protect the open seat for the GOP.

Maryland — Sen. Ben Cardin (D) is retiring after a remarkable 58 years in elective office, counting his time in the state legislature, the US House, and of course the Senate. In his wake we have seen two rather astonishing campaigns, the first in the Democratic primary where US Rep. David Trone (D-Potomac) spent $62 million of his own money only to lose to Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks by just over 10 percentage points in the May election.

The second surprise is the closeness of the general election in what has performed as one of the Democratic Party’s strongest states. Former two-term Gov. Larry Hogan (R), still a popular figure in Maryland, is clearly the best candidate the Republicans could field, and he is making the race close.

Whether he can overtake Alsobrooks now that Vice President Kamala Harris is the party nominee and has activated the base voter to a greater degree than President Joe Biden, is very much in doubt. It seems what is a potential 30-point Harris victory in Maryland might be too high an obstacle for even Gov. Hogan to scale.

While this is an expensive race and one that is clearly in play, Alsobrooks must remain as at least a nominal favorite to succeed Sen. Cardin.

Michigan — Four-term incumbent Debbie Stabenow (D) was the first 2024 in-cycle senator to announce that she would not seek re-election. She yields to what has become a highly competitive race between Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) and former Rep. Mike Rogers (R).

While Michigan trends Democratic, the polling has been quite close both in this race and for the presidential campaign. Unlike most of the other states where former President Donald Trump is running either ahead or in a dead heat with Harris, the Michigan Republican Senate candidate has not lagged. In the other Senate states, and particularly those with an incumbent Democrat seeking re-election, the GOP contender is running well behind Trump’s standing.

In the Wolverine State, we see 14 polls and two tracks being conducted during the month of September. Slotkin leads in all but one, with an average percentage point edge of just over five even though she has an almost 5:1 edge in campaign resources. Outside spending has been heavy, but here Republicans have more than a three million dollar edge among the $45-plus million already expended.

While Rep. Slotkin has a small but clear advantage in this statewide campaign, a stronger than expected performance from Trump at the top of the GOP ticket could give Rogers the extra push he needs to score the upset victory.