Tag Archives: West Virginia

Justice Still Leading Manchin; Florida Redistricting News; Reeves Rebounds in New Poll; Capito Leading in GOP West Virginia Primary Poll

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Sept. 6, 2023

Senate

West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin (D) trailing in poll.

West Virginia: Poll: Justice Still Leading Manchin — Research America conducted a survey for MetroNews West Virginia that was presented at the West Virginia Chamber of Commerce meeting (Aug. 16-26; 402 registered West Virginia voters; oversample of 337 likely Republican primary voters; live interview) just before the Labor Day break commenced.

The results again find Gov. Jim Justice (R) holding a healthy lead over incumbent Joe Manchin (D) in the Senate ballot test. A majority of 51 percent favors Gov. Justice versus just 38 percent who would vote to re-elect Sen. Manchin. If, however, Rep. Alex Mooney (R-Charles Town) were to defeat the governor in the Republican Senate primary, he would trail Sen. Manchin 45-41 percent in their hypothetical general election pairing.

In the Republican primary, though from a small polling sample (337 respondents), Gov. Justice would hold a substantial 58-26 percent advantage over Congressman Mooney.

The West Virginia Senate race continues to be the top Republican conversion target in the country. Though Sen. Manchin’s approval rating in the state has improved to 51:34 percent favorable to unfavorable according to this survey, a plurality of 40 percent would still like to see him retire as compared to 36 percent who believe he should run for re-election. A total of 24 percent said they feel he should run as a minor party candidate for president.

House

Florida Redistricting: Local Circuit Judge Strikes Down Cong Map — The Sunshine State congressional plan that elected 20 Republicans and only eight Democrats in 2022 has been declared unconstitutional. A Lee County state judge rendered the ruling, tying the map to the recently decided US Supreme Court decision pertaining to the Alabama racial gerrymandering case.

The crux of the disqualification was the elimination of then-Rep. Al Lawson’s (D-Tallahassee) 5th District that stretched all the way from Tallahassee to Jacksonville in order to create a majority minority district. The Republicans, citing the communities of interest argument changed the north Florida configuration into a more compact draw.

The state will likely appeal this ruling. Doing so will mean the final decision on this issue will eventually lie with the Florida Supreme Court justices. Whether a new map will be drawn before the 2024 election is unclear at this point.

Guiding the decision through the state’s appellate system may require a longer period than what remains in the current election cycle, even when considering Florida’s late primary (Aug. 20, 2024) and candidate filing deadline (April 26, 2024).

Governor

Mississippi: Gov. Reeves Rebounds in New Poll — Last week, we reported upon an Impact Research poll conducted for Democrat Brandon Presley’s gubernatorial campaign, which projected that he and Gov. Tate Reeves (R) have fallen into a 46-46 percent tie. Expected was a quick counter poll, and now we have seen such a survey. Siena College, polling for the Mississippi Today news site (Aug. 20-28; 650 likely Mississippi voters; live interview), reported their finding and, contrary to the Impact Research data, suggests that Gov. Reeves holds a 52-41 percent lead over Presley. The Mississippi gubernatorial election is scheduled for Nov. 7.

West Virginia: Poll: Capito Leading GOP Primary — The Research America survey for MetroNews West Virginia that posted Gov. Jim Justice (R) to a 51-38 percent advantage over Sen. Joe Manchin (D), also tested the open Republican gubernatorial primary. Gov. Justice is ineligible to seek a third term in his current position.

The Research America results are very different from a National Research survey conducted back in early March. At that time, the NR data found Attorney General Patrick Morrisey leading the Republican field with 28 percent support. State Delegate Moore Capito (R-Charleston), the son of US Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R), was second with 15 percent.

The new data finds the candidates transposed into an inverted order. Capito has now assumed the lead with 32 percent backing while AG Morrisey has slipped to 23 percent. No other contender even reaches the 10 percent threshold. The West Virginia primary is slated for May 14, 2024.

Senate Primaries Forming – Part II

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Aug. 14, 2023

Senate

Sen. Pete Ricketts (R) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Senate Races: Balance of Power — We conclude our look into the critical Senate primary campaigns by previewing the states alphabetically from Nebraska to Wisconsin. (See Friday’s post:
Senate Primaries Forming — Part 1.)

• Nebraska: Sen. Ben Sasse’s (R) resignation earlier this year led to former Gov. Pete Ricketts (R) being appointed to the seat. The new senator must now run in a special election to fill the balance of the term, and then again in 2026 for a full six-year stint. Sen. Ricketts has already announced that he will run in both elections.

Republicans are safe here in the general election; thus, the primary could become the competitive race. So far, no major challenger has come forward, though rancher Chuck Herbster, who placed only second in the 2022 governor’s primary despite having a Donald Trump endorsement, remains a potential candidate.

Sen. Deb Fischer (R), on the ballot for the regular term, has no opposition to date in either the primary or general elections. Nebraskans will choose their nominees on May 14, 2024.

• Nevada: Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) is on the ballot for a second term, and the Republican primary is now becoming crowded. Sam Brown, a disabled Afghan War veteran, is the National Republican Senatorial Committee’s choice and should be viewed as the leading candidate.

Earlier this week, former ambassador to Iceland Jeff Gunter and retired Air Force officer and director of the Reno Air Aces, Tony Grady, entered the race and could make the Republican primary interesting. The Nevada general election contest could well become a top-tier challenge race. The Silver State primary is scheduled for June 11, 2024.

• Ohio: One of the top three Republican conversion opportunities is the Ohio race featuring Sen. Sherrod Brown’s (D) run for a fourth term. Republicans have three major contenders: Secretary of State Frank LaRose, state senator and 2022 US Senate candidate Matt Dolan, and businessman Bernie Moreno.

Early polling gives LaRose, who has won a statewide campaign, the advantage. Sen. Dolan, in his 2022 race, came on strong at the end and finished within one percentage point of second place. Moreno, who was also in the 2022 Senate race but withdrew before voting began, has earned Ohio junior Sen. J.D. Vance’s (R) endorsement.

Regardless of who wins the Republican primary, the Buckeye State Senate campaign will remain a top-tier challenge race. The Ohio primary will occur on March 19, 2024.

• Pennsylvania: Little is occurring in the GOP nomination race as Sen. Bob Casey, Jr. (D) rallies his supporters in a quest for a fourth term.

Republicans are confident that 2022 Senate candidate David McCormick (R) will enter the race, and the primary appears his for the taking. McCormick lost the 2022 Republican campaign to Dr. Mehmet Oz by just 950 votes statewide. Assuming he returns, McCormick will begin the general election contest as a decided underdog to Sen. Casey. The Pennsylvania primary will be conducted on April 23, 2024.

• Texas: The Lone Star State Senate contest appears to be the Democrats only shot at developing a competitive challenge race. Sen. Ted Cruz (R) is on the ballot for a third term and must be considered a clear favorite in a state where Democrats still have not won a major statewide campaign in decades. In a presidential year, their task becomes even harder.

The Democratic leadership is backing US Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas), but he faces a serious challenge from state Sen. Roland Gutierrez (D-San Antonio). The senator is the top gun control advocate in the legislature and much closer to the party’s progressive left base than is Rep. Allred.

Additionally, Texas state Senate seats are bigger than congressional districts, so Gutierrez actually represents 150,000 more people than does Rep. Allred.

Allred has raised more than $6 million since his announcement, but now must spend that and more just to win the party nomination. Sen. Cruz will use the primary to force both men further to the left on energy issues, which are so critical to the Texas economy. The Lone Star primary will be held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.

• Utah: The big question lingering in the Beehive State is whether Sen. Mitt Romney (R) will run for a second term. The senator says he will make a decision in the fall. If he does run, Romney faces a competitive Republican primary challenge, likely from state House Speaker Brad Wilson (R-Kaysville).

Sen. Romney has little chance of winning the state nominating convention, so to qualify for the ballot he will need to recruit 28,000 valid petition signatures from around the state. This process would allow him to bypass the party structure and go directly to the primary ballot.

Republicans will hold the seat in the general election, but the political drama comes in the Republican primary where it is not inconceivable that Sen. Romney could lose. The nomination will be decided on June 25, 2024.

• West Virginia: Sen. Joe Manchin (D) continues to waver about seeking re-election. He is again making statements that he could become an Independent or run for president as a minor party nominee. Regardless of his decision, the West Virginia race is the Republicans’ best conversion opportunity. Gov. Jim Justice (R) is an announced candidate in the Republican primary and faces US Rep. Alex Mooney (R-Charles Town).

The winner, likely Gov. Justice, will be considered the favorite for the general election in what has been former President Donald Trump’s second-best state in the nation during both his 2016 and 2020 election campaigns. With the Club for Growth willing to spend millions to help Mooney from the outside, the Republican primary will be more competitive than one might believe at first glance. The victory odds, however, still favor Gov. Justice. The Republican nomination will be settled on May 14, 2024.

• Wisconsin: The Badger State race is the Republicans’ biggest disappointment to date in terms of candidate recruitment. No one has yet come forward to challenge two-term Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D), and it’s possible that she could run without a serious challenge in what is typically a close state.

Should the congressional districts be redrawn, it is possible that Rep. Bryan Steil (R-Janesville) will find that entering the Senate race is his best political option. He would be the Republicans’ strongest contender. The Wisconsin primary is not until Aug. 6, 2024, so time remains for Republicans to right their political ship.

Senate: Status Check

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Aug. 1, 2023

Senate

Senate Election Cycle: A Review — The 2024 US Senate cycle is a critical one, especially for Republicans since the political map favors them for the first time in three election cycles. Democrats must defend 23 of the 34 Senate races next year, and there are signs of competition in only one of the 11 GOP defense seats.

Therefore, Republicans must maximize their present opportunity because they face minority status for several more election cycles if they fail to claim the majority next year.

With that, let’s review where the key races stand:

FIRST TIER (alphabetically by state)

Sen. Jon Tester (D), Montana

• Montana: Sen. Jon Tester (D) stands for a fourth term from a state that has moved considerably to the right since he was last on the ballot in 2018. The presidential turnout for 2024 is another obstacle that he must overcome.

The Club for Growth leadership several months ago said they would back US Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Glendive) to the tune of $10 million if he decided to challenge Sen. Tester, as he did five years ago. In the 2018 election, Rosendale, then the state auditor, lost to Sen. Tester, 50-47 percent.

Now, CfG president David McIntosh, himself a former Republican congressman, is hedging on such a support level, saying that retired Navy SEAL and aerospace company CEO Tim Sheehy is an impressive candidate and Rep. Rosendale is needed in the House. Rosendale has long been a presumed Senate candidate but has yet to come forward and formally announce his political plans. Former Navy SEAL and aerospace company Sheehy, with the Republican leadership’s endorsement, has officially entered the race.

• Nevada: The close results seen in the state both in 2022 and 2020, along with more GOP candidate development, moves Nevada into the top tier. Afghan War veteran and 2022 Senate candidate Sam Brown enters the race with endorsements from the Senate leadership and key support groups.

Former Ambassador to Iceland Jeffrey Ross Gunter, one of former President Donald Trump’s appointees, is close to becoming a Senate candidate. Also in the race is former state Assemblyman Jim Marchant who was defeated in previous gubernatorial and secretary of state races.

The eventual Republican nominee, particularly if Brown wins, will be in a toss-up race with first-term Sen. Jacky Rosen (D).

• Ohio: Republicans have a three-way primary featuring Secretary of State Frank LaRose, state Sen. Matt Dolan, and businessman Bernie Moreno. Polling shows all three would run within the polling margin of error opposite Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) while keeping him under the 50 percent support plateau.

Republicans have done well in Ohio since Sen. Brown was re-elected in 2018. This will likely be the incumbent’s most difficult re-election race. Ohio becomes a must-win for the Republicans if they are to wrest the Senate majority away from the Democrats.

• West Virginia: Polling finds Gov. Jim Justice (R) holding comfortable leads over Sen. Joe Manchin (D) in the general election and Rep. Alex Mooney (R-Charles Town) in the Republican primary. Sen. Manchin has still not committed to seeking re-election. West Virginia is the Republicans best conversion opportunity. If the GOP fails to win this seat it will be a precursor to a very bad election night.

SECOND TIER (alphabetically by state)

• Arizona: This race will be the wild card of the 2024 election cycle. The three-way race featuring Independent incumbent Kyrsten Sinema means that she, a Democrat, likely Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix), and an eventual Republican nominee, possibly 2022 gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake, could all win this seat with a plurality figure of less than 40 percent.

Considering that Lake received 49.6 percent of the vote in the governor’s race, her chances in the Senate race should not be overlooked. She still, however, must be viewed as an underdog since the other two candidates’ chances appear better at present.

• Michigan: Mitchell Research conducted a new poll of the Michigan electorate (July 11-13; 639 likely Michigan voters; SMS text) and finds Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) recording a 44-38 percent lead over former Rep. Mike Rogers (R) and an even larger 41-28 percent advantage over ex-US Rep. Peter Meijer (R). Both are potential Senate candidates.

Additionally, two-term US Rep. Lisa McClain (R-Bruce), who represents the region commonly referred to as “the thumb” since the state’s Lower Peninsula configuration resembles a human hand, said that she will not enter the open Senate race next year. The move presumes that she will seek re-election to the House in 2024.

Michigan is trending more Democratic than it had in the previous elections before 2020, so the party remains the favorite to hold this open seat due to incumbent Sen. Debbie Stabenow’s (D) retirement.

• Pennsylvania: Sen. Bob Casey, Jr. (D) is on the ballot for a fourth term next year and is the clear favorite for re-election. Republicans do not yet have an official candidate, but it is believed that 2022 Senate candidate David McCormick will at some point announce his entry into the race. He lost the Republican nomination in the last election to Dr. Mehmet Oz by 950 votes statewide.

Even with McCormick in the race, Sen. Casey will hold the inside track to re-election. For this seat to fall to the Republicans, a national Red Wave will have to form.

• Texas: The Lone Star State is the only place at present where a Republican incumbent is being seriously challenged. The entrance of state Sen. Roland Gutierrez (D-San Antonio), however, actually helps Sen. Cruz. With Gutierrez being identified with the progressive left, Sen. Cruz will be able to use the Democratic primary to help drive Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas) further to the left, thus setting both up favorably for the general election regardless of which man becomes the Democratic nominee.

This will be an expensive race, but Sen. Cruz is well positioned to again prevail.

• Wisconsin: Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) stands for a third term. Wisconsin turns in close races, but early polling suggests the Democrats have a clear advantage heading into this cycle. Republicans have yet to recruit a candidate. Some of the GOP possibilities are individuals who have lost previous statewide races.

Should a redistricting case come before the state Supreme Court, there is a possibility that the Wisconsin congressional map may be redrawn. If so, then both Reps. Bryan Steil (R-Janesville) and Derrick Van Order (R-Prairie du Chien) could be endangered. If that happens, we could see Steil move forward to challenge Sen. Baldwin. Should this scenario unfold, the Senate race would become more competitive.

Christie Making Moves; Davidson Declines to Run in Ohio; Manchin Behind in New WVa Poll; Utah’s Rep. Stewart to Resign

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, June 1, 2023

President

Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R)

Chris Christie: Ex-New Jersey Gov Making Moves to Enter Presidential Race — Published reports are indicating that allies of former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) are forming a Super PAC to aid his budding presidential efforts. After the PAC is formed, it is believed Christie will enter the race within the next two weeks, thus bringing the Republican field to at least seven candidates with another four likely to step forward.

Polling suggests, however, that regardless of the number of entries, only two, former President Donald Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, consistently break into double digits. It is also clear, just as it was in 2016, that the large field helps Trump since he has the strongest base within the Republican primary voter universe.

Senate

Ohio: Rep. Davidson Won’t Run for Senate — Citing the closeness of the House Republican majority through the next election, Ohio Rep. Warren Davidson (R-Troy) announced that he will not join the US Senate race to oppose incumbent Sherrod Brown (D) but will seek re-election to his 8th District House seat. Davidson was first elected in a 2016 special election to replace former House Speaker John Boehner (R).

Though it appeared that Rep. Davidson was preparing to enter the race, he said his decision not to do so was based upon the amount of time that a statewide campaign would take away from his House duties. In the Senate race are state Sen. Matt Dolan (R-Chagrin Falls), a 2022 Senate candidate who is a minority owner of the Cleveland Guardians Major League Baseball Club, and businessman Bernie Moreno, who Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance endorsed last week. Expected to join the campaign next month is GOP Secretary of State Frank LaRose. The Ohio Senate race promises to be one of the most competitive in the nation.

West Virginia: New Poll: Manchin Way Behind — East Carolina University released the results of their new West Virginia political poll (May 22-23; 957 registered West Virginia voters; live interview; interactive voice response system; online) and the ballot test results post Gov. Jim Justice to a major 54-32 percent lead over Sen. Joe Manchin (D). If Rep. Alex Mooney (R-Charles Town) were to win the Republican nomination, he would fall into a toss-up battle with Sen. Manchin, leading 42-41 percent according to this survey.

If these polling results continue, Sen. Manchin may find that running for the office of president on the No Labels Party ticket may be his best political option.

House

UT-2: Rep. Chris Stewart Prepares to Resign — Six-term Utah US Rep. Chris Stewart (R-Farmington), who at one time was thought to be interested in launching a gubernatorial or US Senate campaign, is reportedly preparing to resign from the House possibly by the end of this week. Stewart’s wife’s ongoing health situation is the reason he will be leaving his position.

Gov. Spencer Cox (R) will set the special primary and general election calendar within seven days of Rep. Stewart officially resigning. The 2nd District political parties will first meet in a special district convention to select a candidate. The individual candidate eventually receiving majority support from the voting delegates will advance into the primary.

Other candidates may petition onto the ballot. A general election will then follow. It is probable the special general will be held Nov. 7, 2023, concurrently with municipal elections in the state.

Allred Announces Senate Bid in Texas; No Top-Two Primary in Montana; Justice Leads in WVa.; Maloney Accepts Ambassador Appointment

By Jim Ellis — Friday, May 5, 2023

Senate

Texas: Rep. Allred Announces for Senate — As reported earlier in the week, US Rep. Colin
Allred (D-Dallas) was expected to announce a US Senate bid this week, and on Wednesday he released an announcement video to that effect. While Rep. Allred is likely the strongest Democrat the party leaders could recruit to oppose Sen. Ted Cruz (R), scoring an upset win in a Republican stronghold like Texas in a presidential election year will still be a major challenge.

Expect polling throughout the cycle to be closer than the actual ending result. Sen. Cruz has been expecting a tough challenge and is ready for a fight. Several months ago, he took himself out of presidential contention to concentrate fully on his re-election campaign. While Democrats have scored a recruitment victory here, and Texas is likely to now be their top conversion opportunity, Sen. Cruz still must be favored to win re-election.

Montana: No Top-Two Primary — Republican efforts to use the 2024 Montana Senate race as a test case for changing the state’s primary system to an all-party top-two jungle structure have failed. The legislature adjourned with the bill not moving from the state House of Representatives. The measure had previously passed the state Senate, but then was tabled in a state House committee. Another committee attempted to revive the bill, but that effort failed, and the session ended. Therefore, we will see a traditional Montana Senate primary next year.

An enacted bill would have changed next year’s Senate primary structure and only two candidates, presumably Sen. Jon Tester (D) and a Republican nominee, would have advanced into the general election.

From a partisan perspective, the idea was to eliminate the Libertarian Party from the ballot. Typically, these nominees attract about three percent of the vote, most of which is drawn from a Republican nominee. Considering Sen. Tester won the 2018 election with just a three-point margin, the Libertarian vote total did, and could again, prove significant.

West Virginia: Gov. Justice Leads in First Post-Announcement Poll — The co/efficient Republican polling firm tested the West Virginia electorate soon after Gov. Jim Justice (R) formally announced his senatorial campaign. The survey (April 24-25; 974 likely West Virginia general election voters; 753 likely West Virginia Republican primary voters; online) posts Gov. Justice as the leading candidate in the Republican primary, the general election, and in personal approval ratings.

Opposite GOP Rep. Alex Mooney (R-Charles Town), Gov. Justice would lead 45-17 percent. Advancing to the general election, the two-term state chief executive would top incumbent Sen. Joe Manchin (D), 43-29 percent. If Rep. Mooney were the Republican nominee, he would trail Sen. Manchin 30-36 percent.

Additionally, Gov. Justice is the only one of the three with a positive favorability index of 49:29 percent. This compares with a poor 27:47 percent favorable to unfavorable rating for Sen. Manchin, and 21:34 percent for Rep. Mooney.

House

NY-17: Ex-Rep. Maloney Accepts Appointment — President Biden announced that he is appointing defeated New York Democratic Congressman Sean Patrick Maloney (D) as the US Ambassador to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), which is headquartered in Paris, France. The OECD is comprised of representatives from 38 countries to develop common economic platforms and initiatives.

Maloney, even as chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), was defeated for re-election in 2022. There was some talk that he was considering returning for a re-match with freshman Rep. Mike Lawler (R-Pearl River), but this international appointment would seemingly remove him from a political run in 2024. This makes it even more likely that former Rep. Mondaire Jones (D) will declare his candidacy in the 17th District.

We can expect this campaign to become a national congressional battle and one of the keys to determining the next House majority.

Trump’s Numbers Under Indictment; House Battles in CA-45, MI-3, NM-2; Morrisey to Run for WVa Governor

By Jim Ellis — Friday, April 7, 2023

President

Former President Donald Trump appears in court with members of his legal team for an arraignment on Tuesday, April 4. (Andrew Kelly/Pool/Reuters)

Under Indictment: Trump’s Numbers — Though under indictment, former President Donald Trump sees his polling numbers continue to improve, this time in three states. His lead over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, and others, has grown according to new surveys from Massachusetts and New Hampshire, while his deficit has tightened in Florida.

Clearly, looking at his flash polling numbers and post-indictment, multi-million dollar fundraising haul, there is no question that former President Trump’s political base is rising to the occasion. The question is, as this legal process will almost assuredly drag on for the foreseeable future, will he be politically sustained for the long run?

The early states next year will be critical for Trump. The court scheduled his next appearance for Dec. 4, which is just two months before the Feb. 5 Iowa Caucuses. At that point, perception could change.

House

CA-45: New Field Forming Against Rep. Steel — Harvard-educated attorney Aditya Pai, who moved to Orange County from India as a child when eight years old, announced that he will join the growing field to challenge two-term Rep. Michelle Steel (R-Orange County) in next March’s all-party jungle primary. Already declared are Garden Grove City Councilwoman Kim Nguyen and attorney Cheyenne Hunt. Jay Chen, the Community College Trustee who held Rep. Steel to a 52-48 percent re-election win in November, is also a potential candidate.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates CA-45 as D+5. Dave’s Redistricting App calculates a 52.2D – 45.9R partisan lean. Rep. Steel was recently added to the Democrats’ Frontline target list. We can expect another competitive campaign here next year.

MI-3: Another Attempt — Financial Advisor Michael Markey (R) intended to run for the House two years ago, but the company he hired to gather petition signatures failed to complete the job and his candidacy was rejected. Now, with a new incumbent in the redrawn 3rd District, freshman Rep. Hillary Scholten (D-Grand Rapids), Markey returns. This time, it is likely he will better handle the campaign mechanics.

Rep. Scholten won the 3rd District after GOP incumbent Peter Meijer was defeated for renomination. For his part, Meijer may run for the Senate. The 2021 redistricting map changed the 3rd CD from one that favored Republicans when then-Rep. Meijer was first elected (R+9 according to the FiveThirtyEight data organization), to its current D+3 configuration.

NM-2: Re-Match on Tap — Former New Mexico Congresswoman Yvette Herrell (R), who lost her re-election bid by a razor-thin 50.3 – 49.7 percent margin to freshman Rep. Gabe Vasquez (D-Las Cruces) is preparing for a re-match. Herrell has already filed a 2024 committee with the Federal Election Commission and has scheduled an April 10 kick-off event for her new campaign that will feature House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA).

The 2nd will yield another competitive congressional contest and promises to be a top Republican conversion target. The district was re-drawn with a 19-point swing from the previous version giving the Democrats a small advantage.

Governor

West Virginia: AG Morrisey to Run for Governor — As has been expected at least since a mid-March National Research, Inc. Republican primary poll found him leading the open GOP field, Attorney General Patrick Morrisey announced that he will enter the 2024 gubernatorial campaign.

In 2018, Morrisey held Sen. Joe Manchin (D) to a 49.6 – 46.3 percent re-election win. He has averaged 55.5 percent of the vote in his three victories as the state’s attorney general. In the 2018 Republican Senatorial primary, Morrisey defeated five opponents with 35 percent of the vote.

Currently, there are eight candidates in the gubernatorial race including Morrisey, Secretary of State Mac Warner, State Auditor J.B. McCuskey, state Delegate Moore Capito (R-Charleston), the son of Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R), and auto dealer Chris Miller, son of US Rep. Carol Miller (R-Huntington). Gov. Jim Justice (R), who is ineligible to seek a third term, is likely to run for the Senate.

High Possibility Sen. Sinema to Join “No Labels” Party in Ariz.; Hutchinson Announces; Justice With Big Lead in WVa; New Candidates in AZ-1, FL-11

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, April 6, 2023

President

Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ)

No Labels Party: AZ Democrats Sue to Disqualify — The No Labels Party is attempting to qualify for the ballot in as many states as possible, and has already done so in Alaska, Arizona, Colorado, and Oregon. The Arizona Democratic Party, however, has filed a lawsuit attempting to disqualify the No Labels entity under the reasoning that Democratic Secretary of State Adrian Fontes was in error for certifying the organization because it doesn’t meet all of the legal qualifications. The ADP claims that No Labels has not filed with the Federal Election Commission nor have they disclosed their donors, both requirements for political parties under Arizona election law.

The Arizona Democrats are particularly concerned about No Labels because a candidate under this banner could potentially draw Democratic votes away from President Biden while further attracting a large percentage of Democratic support for Independent and Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, a former Democrat, now an Independent. Arizona is again expected to deliver very close statewide election results in 2024, as its electorate has done in the last two elections.

There is a strong possibility that Sen. Sinema could run as the No Labels Senate candidate. Doing so would allow her to qualify for the ballot with far fewer petition signatures than required to secure an Independent ballot line. Under Arizona procedure, an Independent candidate would be required to submit 45,000 valid registered voter petition signatures. A new party’s candidate would see such a signature requirement drop to less than 1,300.

Asa Hutchinson: Announces Candidacy — Former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson (R), who has repeatedly come out in opposition to former President Donald Trump, announced that he will become a presidential candidate. Though Hutchinson would be considered a “Never Trumper,” his jumping into the race could well help the former president because even small numbers of votes deflect from whoever becomes Trump’s top opponent, likely Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, will allow the former to score a plurality victory.

Senate

West Virginia: New GOP Primary Poll Finds Gov. Justice with Big Lead — The National Public Affairs survey research firm released the results of their new West Virginia US Senate Republican primary poll. The study (March 14-17; 360 likely West Virginia Republican primary voters and Independents likely to vote in the Republican primary; live interview & text), unsurprisingly finds Gov. Jim Justice leading Attorney General Patrick Morrisey (R) and US Rep. Alex Mooney (R-Charles Town) with a 43-21-10 percent count. If the race were only between Gov. Justice and Rep. Mooney, the governor would hold a 55-24 percent advantage.

It is likely that Morrisey will likely opt for the open governor’s race instead of taking on Justice in another Senate primary. In 2018, Morrisey held Sen. Joe Manchin (D) to a 50-46 percent re-election victory after easily winning the Republican primary. A Senate announcement from Gov. Justice is expected soon.

House

AZ-1: Democrats Rebound with New Candidate — Late last week, 2022 congressional nominee Jevin Hodge (D), who held Arizona Rep. David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills) to a tight 50.4 – 49.6 percent victory margin, announced that he would not return for a re-match. State Rep. Amish Shah (D-) said Monday that he will run.

The newly-configured 1st District electorate is voting much more Democratic than the FiveThirtyEight R+7 rating would suggest. Though Rep. Schweikert barely won, President Joe Biden, Sen. Mark Kelly (D), and Gov. Katie Hobbs (D) all carried the 1st district in their 2020 and 2022 elections, albeit by similarly slim margins. Expect AZ-1 to be a top-tier Democratic conversion seat in the next election.

FL-11: Rep. Webster to Face Primary Challenge — Former Florida state Rep. Anthony Sabatini (R), who finished a distant second to now-Rep. Cory Mills (R-New Smyrna Beach) in the open 7th District Republican primary last year, announced that he will challenge veteran Rep. Dan Webster (R-Clermont) next year in the neighboring 11th District. Sabatini will be a long-shot contender, but he will likely be able to attract sufficient resources to become competitive.