Tag Archives: Tennessee

NY State Results; The Fox Polls

By Jim Ellis

Sept. 14, 2018 — Gov. Andrew Cuomo, as predicted, easily won the Democratic gubernatorial primary last night with a 65-35 percent victory over actress Cynthia Nixon. Late polling projected the governor to be breaking the 60 percent threshold with Nixon lagging way behind. He will now have little trouble winning a third term in the general election against the new Republican nominee, Duchess County Executive Marc Molinaro.

fox-news-polls-for-key-senate-racesUS Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney’s (D-Cold Spring/West Point) quest to become the state’s attorney general ended last night. Despite a late poll suggesting he had forged into the lead, Maloney dropped to third position in the actual vote.

The Democratic primary winner was New York City Public Advocate Letitia James, who said that she “ … can’t wait to wake up each and every day, go to the office, sue somebody and then go home,” in her victory speech and stated that she wants to target President Trump, the NRA, and state corruption, captured 38 percent of the Democratic primary vote.

In second, with 30 percent, was frequent Democratic candidate Zephyr Teachout who challenged Gov. Cuomo back in the 2014 party primary. Rep. Maloney drew only 24 percent. He will now return to the congressional campaign trail since he was re-nominated back in the June federal primary.


THE FOX POLLS

Fox News just released a series of five polls in key US Senate states where they find very close races. Fox conducts its surveys jointly through two research entities, a Democratic polling company, Anderson Robbins Research, and the Republican firm of Shaw & Company Research.

All five studies were conducted during the Sept. 8-11 period. The organizations used the live interview method to conduct their data gathering through a combination of landline and cell phone calls. The polling universes begin with a registered voter pool from which likely voter segments are derived. Results are reported for both the larger and more refined polling cells. In all cases, the candidates’ individual approval ratings differed very little between registered voters and likely voters.

Arizona (801 registered Arizona voters; 710 likely voters)
• Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Phoenix) has a 47-44 percent edge over Rep. Martha McSally (R-Tucson) among likely voters and 46-42 percent within the broader registered voters universe.
• President Trump’s Arizona job approval rating is 49:49 percent positive to negative. This contrasts with Rep. Sinema’s 52:35 percent index and McSally’s 47:43 percent.

Obviously, the ballot test shows that either candidate can win the race. Rep. McSally has a lesser favorability rating than Rep. Sinema largely because she was attacked in a multi-candidate primary, whereas the latter woman was a consensus Democratic candidate who breezed through the primary without being forced to absorb negative hits.
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The Final Primaries

By Jim Ellis

the-primariesSept. 11, 2018 — The last two states to nominate candidates prior to the Nov. 6 general election will host primary elections this week. Voters in New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and New York will go to the polls today, Wednesday, and Thursday, respectively. New York held its federal primary on June 26, but the nominees for state offices will be chosen on Sept. 13.

The Ocean State features the only Wednesday primary in the nation. Two other states voted on a Thursday (Tennessee and Delaware), and one more on a Saturday (Hawaii). All others voted on Tuesdays.

Louisiana will hold its jungle primary concurrently with the Nov. 6 general election. If no candidate receives majority support the top two finishers, regardless of party affiliation, will run-off on Dec. 8. The other post-general run-off will occur in Mississippi. If no candidate receives majority support in the Nov. 6 special US Senate election the top two finishers, again irrespective of party affiliation, will advance to a secondary Nov. 27 election.


NEW HAMPSHIRE

First-term Gov. Chris Sununu (R) runs for a second term even though he was just elected in 2016. New Hampshire and neighboring Vermont are the remaining two states that hold a gubernatorial vote in every regular general election.

The governor is unopposed in tomorrow’s Republican primary, while Democrats feature a battle between former state Sen. Molly Kelly and ex-Portsmouth Mayor Steve Marchand. Kelly is favored for the party nomination, but Gov. Sununu will begin the general election as a heavy favorite. Politically, New Hampshire has swung more wildly than any state for a decade, so any result is possible here.

The big attraction is the open 1st Congressional District, a seat that has defeated more incumbents than any in the nation since 2006. Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D-Rochester) originally won this seat in 2006. She then lost (2010), won (2012), lost (2014), and won again (2016). Now, she is retiring.

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Reviewing the Latest Senate Data

1200px-Seal_of_the_United_States_Senate.svgBy Jim Ellis

Aug. 23, 2018 — With 43 state electorates now having chosen nominees (most recently Alaska and Wyoming on Tuesday), it’s a good time to check just how the top Senate races are performing as the calendar turns towards Labor Day.

Currently, the national political map yields 16 Senate races where both parties have the potential to win. Below is a recap snapshot of the 11 competitive states where public polls have been released from mid-July to the present:


ARIZONA
Emerson College Polling (likely to be released yesterday or today)
Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D) — 50%
Rep. Martha McSally (R) — 42%

OH Predictive Insights (July 23-24; 600 likely Arizona voters)
Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D) — 48%
Rep. Martha McSally (R) — 44%

Note: The Arizona primary is Aug. 28. Rep. Sinema is a lock for the Democratic nomination, and all polling shows Rep. McSally leading beyond the margin of error for the Republicans.


CALIFORNIA
Public Policy Institute of California (July 8-17; 1,020 likely California voters)
Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) — 46%
St. Sen. Kevin de Leon (D) — 24%

Note: While the California race is not in play from a partisan standpoint, the campaign has competitive potential between the two Democratic contenders.


FLORIDA
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategies (July 24-25; 625 likely Florida voters)
Gov. Rick Scott (R) — 47%
Sen. Bill Nelson (R) — 44%

Florida Atlantic University (July 20-21; 800 registered Florida voters)
Gov. Rick Scott (R) — 44%
Sen. Bill Nelson (R) — 40%

Note: The Florida primary is Aug. 28. Both Sen. Nelson and Gov. Scott are sure winners in their respective nomination campaigns.
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Tennessee Primary Election Results

By Jim Ellis

Aug. 3, 2018 — Often in politics when two candidates begin to square off against each other in a multi-candidate field, that pair loses and an opponent coming from the outside walks away with the prize. That model again happened last night in the Tennessee Republican primary.

TENNESSEE-CONGRESSIONAL-DISTRICTS-with-citiesBusinessman Bill Lee, the only candidate with no governmental experience, took advantage of his late polling surge and captured the GOP gubernatorial nomination in Thursday’s Volunteer State primary election. Lee’s victory was substantial, winning a 37-24-23-15 percent over businessman and former state Economic Development Commissioner Randy Boyd, US Rep. Diane Black (R-Gallatin), and state House Speaker Beth Harwell (R-Nashville). Lee will now oppose former Nashville Mayor Karl Dean, who easily won the Democratic gubernatorial primary with 75 percent of the vote.

The open governor’s primary had been hotly contested. Rep. Black and Boyd had been leading in most polls, but Lee had made a major final push and became a late factor in the race. Most surveys had Rep. Black holding a slight advantage, but the polls had been hovering within the polling margin of error for several weeks. We saw that play out last night.

Voter turnout heavily favored the Republicans to the point of more than doubling the Democratic participation rate. In the governor’s race, 785,969 Republicans voted as compared to 369,775 Democrats. Lee now becomes the heavy favorite to succeed term-limited Gov. Bill Haslam (R) in the fall general election.

There was no suspense in the open US Senate race because Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R-Brentwood) and former Gov. Phil Bredesen (D) easily won their respective party nominations against only minor opposition, thus officially beginning a general election campaign that has already been proceeding for many weeks.

In the House races, incumbents Phil Roe (R-Johnson City), Chuck Fleischmann (R-Chattanooga), Scott DesJarlais (R-South Pittsburg), and Steve Cohen (D-Memphis) all were easily re-nominated in percentages ranging from 70 (DesJarlais) to 91 (Cohen). Rep. Jim Cooper (D-Nashville) was the only incumbent House member in either party unopposed for re-nomination.

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Previewing Tennessee Thursday

By Jim Ellis

Tennessee state flag

Tennessee state flag

July 26, 2018 — Next Thursday, Volunteer State voters head to the polls in the only place that holds its statewide primary on a day other than a Tuesday or Saturday. The Aug. 2 Tennessee political card features some intense races, including an open US Senate and governor’s race, along with three open-seat House races in addition to one significant incumbent challenge.

Though the Senate race is open and will be hard fought through November, the primary is set for both parties so we won’t see the usual uptick in activity here next week. Former two-term Gov. Phil Bredesen has the Democratic nomination sewn up, as does US Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R-Brentwood) on the Republican side.

In the open governor’s race, US Rep. Diane Black (R-Gallatin) and businessman Randy Boyd appear to be the two front-runners, and the two are zeroing in on each other. Boyd, and fellow candidate Bill Lee, are both being hit over making past contributions to Democratic candidates. Rep. Black, running as the most conservative candidate, is taking flack for her role in an unpopular Congress. Former Nashville Mayor Karl Deen and state House Minority Leader Craig Fitzhugh (D-Ripley), emphasizing his “Tennessee Always” slogan, are the top Democratic candidates. But, the real battle to replace term-limited Gov. Bill Haslam (R) lies in Thursday’s Republican primary.

Though many names will appear on the ballot in Tennessee’s nine congressional races, only a few candidates are legitimately competitive.

Reps. Phil Roe (R-Johnson City), Chuck Fleischmann (R-Chattanooga), Scott DesJarlais (R-South Pittsburg), and Steve Cohen (D-Memphis) all have primary opponents, but none appear particularly strong. In the case of Reps. Fleischmann and DesJarlais, both face an easy primary run for the first time in their congressional careers.

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