Reviewing the Latest Senate Data

1200px-Seal_of_the_United_States_Senate.svgBy Jim Ellis

Aug. 23, 2018 — With 43 state electorates now having chosen nominees (most recently Alaska and Wyoming on Tuesday), it’s a good time to check just how the top Senate races are performing as the calendar turns towards Labor Day.

Currently, the national political map yields 16 Senate races where both parties have the potential to win. Below is a recap snapshot of the 11 competitive states where public polls have been released from mid-July to the present:

Emerson College Polling (likely to be released yesterday or today)
Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D) — 50%
Rep. Martha McSally (R) — 42%

OH Predictive Insights (July 23-24; 600 likely Arizona voters)
Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D) — 48%
Rep. Martha McSally (R) — 44%

Note: The Arizona primary is Aug. 28. Rep. Sinema is a lock for the Democratic nomination, and all polling shows Rep. McSally leading beyond the margin of error for the Republicans.

Public Policy Institute of California (July 8-17; 1,020 likely California voters)
Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) — 46%
St. Sen. Kevin de Leon (D) — 24%

Note: While the California race is not in play from a partisan standpoint, the campaign has competitive potential between the two Democratic contenders.

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategies (July 24-25; 625 likely Florida voters)
Gov. Rick Scott (R) — 47%
Sen. Bill Nelson (R) — 44%

Florida Atlantic University (July 20-21; 800 registered Florida voters)
Gov. Rick Scott (R) — 44%
Sen. Bill Nelson (R) — 40%

Note: The Florida primary is Aug. 28. Both Sen. Nelson and Gov. Scott are sure winners in their respective nomination campaigns.

The Trafalgar Group (July 31-Aug. 7; 1,420 likely Indiana voters from a pool of more than 50,000 potential respondents)
Sen. Joe Donnelly (D) — 51%
Mike Braun (R) — 39%

Emerson College Polling (Aug. 8-11; 500 likely and “somewhat likely” Minnesota voters)
Sen. Tina Smith (D) — 32%
St. Sen. Karin Housley (R) — 28%

Mellman Group for the Espy Campaign (Aug. 1-7; 600 likely Mississippi voters)
Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) — 30%
Fmr. Ag Sec Mike Espy (D) — 22%
St. Sen. Chris McDaniel (R) — 17%

Fmr. Ag Sec Mike Espy (D) — 41%
Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) — 38%

Fmr. Ag Sec Mike Espy (D) — 45%
St. Sen. Chris McDaniel (R) — 27%

Triumph Campaigns for Y’All Politics blog (July 30-31; 2,100 likely Mississippi voters divided evenly among the four congressional districts)
Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) — 41%
Fmr Ag Sec Mike Espy (D) — 27%
St. Sen. Chris McDaniel (R) — 16%

WPA Intelligence for the Club for Growth (Aug. 12-14; 501 likely Missouri voters)
Atty Gen. Josh Hawley (R) — 48%
Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) — 41%

TJP Strategies for the Missouri Scout blog (Aug. 8-9; 1,785 likely Missouri voters)
Atty Gen. Josh Hawley (R) — 47%
Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) — 47%

Suffolk University (July 24-29; 500 likely Nevada voters)
Sen. Dean Heller (R) — 41%
Rep. Jacky Rosen (D) — 40%

Gravis Marketing (Aug. 9-11; 620 likely Tennessee voters)
Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R) — 48%
Fmr. Gov. Phil Bredesen (D) — 44%

Emerson College Polling (July 11-14; 657 likely Tennessee voters)
Fmr. Gov. Phil Bredesen (D) — 43%
Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R) — 37%

Public Policy Polling for End Citizens United (Aug. 1-2; 797 likely Texas voters)
Sen. Ted Cruz (R) — 46%
Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D) — 42%

Quinnipiac University (July 26-31; 1,118 registered Texas voters)
Sen. Ted Cruz (R) — 49%
Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D) — 43%

Trafalgar Group (July 13-16; 1,158 likely West Virginia voters from a pool of more than 50,000 potential respondents)
Sen. Joe Manchin (D) — 50%
Atty Gen. Patrick Morrisey (R) — 40%

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