Tag Archives: Tennessee

Major Primary Week Begins Tomorrow

Voters in six states go the polls this week to choose their fall nominees. Most of the primary action is on the Republican side, but that all changes as the weekend approaches in the Aloha State of Hawaii. There, Democrats may deny a sitting governor re-nomination, will settle a tough Senate primary, and choose a fall candidate for the open Honolulu House seat. More on this state later in the week. Same for the Senate and House situation in Tennessee, which holds its primary on Thursday.

Four primaries, in Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington are scheduled for tomorrow, and all but the Show Me State feature important contests. Missouri has neither a Senate nor a governor’s race this year, and no House incumbent faces serious nomination competition.

But, the climate is much different in Kansas, where the Republican split between moderates and conservatives is more pronounced than in virtually any state, and Michigan where establishment Republicans Continue reading >

Entering Primary Season’s Final Stretch

As we enter the primary season’s final stretch, 19 states still have yet to choose their 2014 nominees. The first nine days of August will bring voters to the polls in a half-dozen states with much to be decided.

August 5

The most active day is the first Tuesday in August. Four states are holding primaries, featuring one key Senate nomination battle.

In Kansas, Sen. Pat Roberts (R) faces a GOP challenge from physician Milton Wolf. Roberts has made several mis-steps during the campaign, including admitting that he doesn’t own property in his state, possessing a Virginia personalized license plate that identifies him as the Kansas senator, and saying that he returns home, “every time he has an opponent.” Despite the gaffes, Dr. Wolf appears to be a flawed candidate and is not likely to deny Roberts renomination.
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A Trio of House Happenings

In honor of Independence Day, this will be the last Political Update for this week. The normal schedule will resume Monday, July 7. Enjoy the holiday!

http://youtu.be/rhAE9VtJ7Co

MI-3

The gloves are officially off in the western Michigan Republican primary challenge to Rep. Justin Amash. Businessman Brian Ellis released a new ad featuring former Marine combat veteran Ben Thomas.
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Will Huge Field of Candidates Change Tennesee’s Political Landscape?

With 30 states now having completed the process of officially certifying their candidates for the 2014 general election, a large number of Tennessee political activists have stepped forward to run for federal and major statewide office.

No fewer than 17 individuals have entered the governor’s race to face first term Tennessee chief executive Bill Haslam (R). Comprising the group are three minor Republican primary challengers to the governor, seven Democrats, and an additional seven minor party and Independent candidates. None of the individuals, however, appear politically Continue reading >

Three Real Primary Dust-ups

Though the government shutdown delayed filing of the candidates’ quarterly disclosure reports with the Federal Election Commission, some of the dollars and cents information has already started flowing into the media. Of all the data being reported, three specific campaigns are noteworthy because challengers to incumbents within their own party are already reporting more money raised and in the bank than for their respective opponent.

MI-11

The first salvo has been fired in Michigan in attorney David Trott’s (R) challenge to freshman Rep. Kerry Bentivolio (R), and it is a serious blow. According to published reports, the challenger is going to post raising over $648,000, including a substantial contribution from himself – although the exact amount was not released – with $452,000 cash-on-hand. Bentivolio had a very poor second quarter, raising only $39,000, and reporting approximately $59,000 in his campaign account. We will soon see the extent of his third quarter take.

Rep. Bentivolio is often described as an “accidental congressman” because he entered office under unusual circumstances. Filing as a Tea Party challenger against then-Rep. Thaddeus McCotter (R), Bentivolio became the only qualified Republican candidate on the ballot when the incumbent failed to submit enough valid nominating petition signatures. He then went on to win the general election with strong help from the Liberty for All Super PAC, which spent more than $600,000 as an independent expenditure on his behalf.

It is unclear if the congressman will receive such support this time around, but it is becoming apparent that he will need major assistance in order to compete against Trott. Armed with heavy establishment Republican Party support, Trott will soon be sporting the type of campaign resources usually reserved for an incumbent. A primary challenger victory is highly possible in this suburban Detroit district.

TN-4

Another Republican congressman who might be denied renomination is Tennessee sophomore Rep. Scott DesJarlais. A scandal broke late in his first re-election bid, one Continue reading >

Why Ashley Judd’s Announcement is Bad News for McConnell

Ashley Judd, Publicity Photo, “Missing”

Confirming a trend that appeared to be developing over the last two weeks, actress Ashley Judd announced through her Twitter account yesterday that she will not challenge Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) next year.

It was fast becoming clear, including to those leaders of the national and Kentucky Democratic Party apparatus, that Judd would not match up favorably with McConnell, who has proven himself as one of the stronger veteran Republican campaigners in the current political era. Because his victory percentage dropped to 53.0 percent in the Obama presidential year of 2008 from a high of 64.7 percent in 2002, Democrats are feeling more optimistic about their 2014 Kentucky Senate chances.

The state is an interesting one from a political context. Though it now performs as solid Republican territory during presidential contests, Democrats are still more than competitive, if not routinely favored, in statewide and local elections.

While the GOP now dominates the state’s congressional elections, particularly when considering freshman Rep. Andy Barr’s (R-KY-6) upset of incumbent Ben Chandler (D) last November to increase the party’s delegation to a 5R-1D split, Democrats are Continue reading >

2014 House Challenges

Already, several individuals have announced, or will likely announce, challenges to certain incumbent House members for the 2014 election cycle. As in the early part of all election cycles, the political moves are very fluid, but the ones listed below appear concrete:

Challengers

CA-35: Ex-Rep. Joe Baca (D-CA-43), defeated in 2012 by then-state Sen. Gloria Negrete McLeod (D), will seek a re-match with the woman who ousted him from the House. Under California’s top-two election law, both Democrats qualified for the general election, and will likely do so again. It was a bit of a surprise that Baca decided to run in new District 35 back in 2012, when his home and political base (city of Rialto: population 100,662) was placed in new District 31, represented by Rep. Gary Miller (R). Though he could opt to challenge Miller in a district that contains 44 percent of his former constituency, the former congressman appears committed to running another race against freshman Rep. Negrete McLeod.
CO-6: Rep. Mike Coffman (R), winning a close 48-46 percent victory in a new Democratic district where President Obama recorded 52 percent, will face another difficult re-election contest. Former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff (D), a defeated 2010 Senatorial candidate, is formally in the Continue reading >