Tag Archives: Tennessee

Weekly Redistricting Update

Significant redistricting action occurred in the following nine states during the first business week of the new year:

CONNECTICUT (current delegation: 5D) – The Connecticut Supreme Court issued instructions to appointed special master Nathan Persily to draw a “least change” congressional map. This is viewed as a win for the Democrats, who want to keep the map’s footprint as close to the current plan as possible. It is likely that Democrats will maintain control of all five districts when the process finally concludes.

HAWAII (current delegation: 2D) – The Hawaii State Supreme Court rejected the enacted state legislative maps, saying the legislature counted non-residents (mostly military families and students) in developing their population matrix. It appears approximately 100,000 people are affected. This likely will mean a shift in state House and Senate seats away from Oahu and onto the Big Island of Hawaii. It is unclear if this decision will affect the congressional map.

KENTUCKY (current delegation: 4R-2D) – The jurisdictional state House committee passed the first congressional map on a party-line vote. The measure now goes to the House floor. Democrats control the House and hold the governor’s office, while Republicans have a majority in the state Senate so a compromise map will be the eventual solution. Expect an incumbent protection plan that keeps the 4R-2D ratio, but shores up the two Democrat districts. The candidate filing deadline is Jan. 31, so serious redistricting action will soon be forthcoming.

MINNESOTA (current delegation: 4D-4R) – The special five-judge state panel charged with solving the redistricting impasse announced that they will release an eight-district congressional plan on Feb. 21. The Republican legislature and Democratic Gov. Mark Dayton could not agree on a consensus map, hence the court action. Both parties have submitted their maps to the panel and have participated in oral arguments.

MISSISSIPPI (current delegation: 3R-1D) – It appears that Mississippi congressional redistricting is now over. The special three judge federal panel issued a map before the new legislature took office on Jan. 3. The plan altered the districts only slightly. Since the appeal period has now expired with no one filing a challenge, the new map becomes official. The map favors all of the current incumbents.

NEW MEXICO (current delegation: 2D-1R) – Like the court in Mississippi, the New Mexico judges also drew a “least change” congressional map with the agreement of both Democrat and Republican plaintiffs. Politically, New Mexico will continue to have one Democratic seat (NM-3), one Republican district (NM-2), and a swing region that leans Democratic (NM-1).

TENNESSEE (current delegation: 7R-2D) – The majority Republican state legislative leaders released their first-draft congressional map and, as expected, intra-party politics dominated the re-draw. Keeping the current 7R-2D footprint intact – though District 8 (Rep. Stephen Fincher-R) will continue to be politically marginal – a big move is made over freshman Rep. Scott DesJarlais’ (R) 4th District. Though the seat will still elect a Republican, the state Senate Redistricting Committee placed Rutherford County, the home of committee member Bill Ketron (R), in the new 4th and he appears set to launch a primary challenge to the one-term incumbent. Rutherford County’s departure from District 6 (Rep. Diane Black-R) also takes two major contenders from the last TN-6 (2010) campaign, thus adding them to District 4 as well.

The addition of Rutherford County shifts the district’s power base toward the Murfreesboro area. DesJarlais is from the region nearest to Chattanooga. He is already running radio ads in the new part of the district to introduce himself as the area’s new congressman. The expected DesJarlais-Ketron race will be hard-fought and is a clear redistricting power play. It’s a most interesting one because it involves an intra-party move, not involving any Democrats. The best the GOP can expect is to solidify their 7-2 advantage, which is the goal of this map. Much more will come here as this plan makes its way through the legislature.

TEXAS (current delegation: 23R-9D; gains four seats) – Oral arguments pertaining to the congressional and legislative maps were made yesterday, Jan. 9, before the US Supreme Court. It is unclear as to when the high court will rule, but the case is on an expedited track. If no ruling occurs before Jan. 17, then the April 3rd primary, already moved from March 6, will likely change again.

WEST VIRGINIA (current delegation: 2D-1R) – A three judge federal panel has struck down the West Virginia congressional plan, ruling that population differences among the three districts are excessive. The Democratic legislature, governor, and Republican Reps. David McKinley (WV-1) and Shelley Moore Capito (WV-2) all had agreed upon the “least change” map. The two Republicans are joining the Democrat leaders in asking the Supreme Court to stay the three judge panel’s ruling. West Virginia candidate filing is Jan. 31, but their primary is not until May 8, so time exists to solve the issues.

Incumbents Facing Challenges in 2012 – Part II

In concluding our two-part series about House members who will face serious 2012 re-election challenges, below we list 22 more competitive incumbents from states where redistricting has been completed or which is pending but clear.

IN-8 – Larry Bucshon (R) – In attempting to gain a 7R-2D advantage for the delegation, the 8th district of freshman Rep. Bucshon was weakened, from the Republican perspective. Expect competition here, but the new incumbent remains the favorite.

IA-3 – Leonard Boswell (D) / Tom Latham (R) – In the only intra-party pairing of the new election cycle so far, veteran Reps. Boswell and Latham square-off in a marginal district. Mr. Boswell represents more of the new district, but the voting patterns tilt a touch toward Mr. Latham. This race begins as a pure toss-up.

IA-4 – Steve King (R) – The new western-based 4th district is mostly comprised of Rep. King’s current 5th district and part of Mr. Latham’s old 4th. Christie Vilsack (D), wife of former Gov. Tom Vilsack who serves as President Obama’s Agriculture Secretary, already has announced her intention to challenge Rep. King. This will be a competitive race because of Vilsack’s fundraising capability. However, King begins with the decided advantage.

LA-3 – Jeff Landry (R) / Charles Boustany (R) – Louisiana’s loss of a congressional seat pits freshman Rep. Jeff Landry against veteran Charles Boustany in a Republican primary battle. The winner retains the seat. Boustany is the early favorite.

MI-9 – Sander Levin (D) / Gary Peters (D) – Michigan’s loss of a district pairs 15-term Rep. Levin against two-term Rep. Peters. Levin, who will be 80 at the time of the next election, is a retirement possibility. Peters has also tested the waters to run for Oakland County Executive. The winner of this primary battle, should it occur, holds the seat.

MO-2 – Russ Carnahan (D) – The loss of a seat in Missouri has forced Rep. Carnahan either to challenge Rep. Lacy Clay in the 1st district Democratic primary or try to survive in the neighboring Republican 2nd district seat, in open status because Rep. Todd Akin is running for the Senate. Carnahan is competitive here, but will be the underdog.

NH-2 – Charlie Bass (R) – The 2nd district is now more like Vermont than New Hampshire in terms of voting patterns. This means the seat is decidedly Democratic. Rep. Bass regained the position he lost in 2006, but by just one percentage point over Democratic lobbyist Anne McLane Kuster. Redistricting must move only 254 people between the two districts, so Bass’s hopes for a more Republican seat are gone. This is a prime Democratic conversion opportunity.

NY-25 – Ann Marie Buerkle (R) – Though redistricting won’t be completed well into next year, we can count on a competitive race in this Syracuse-based district. Chances are the city will remain intact, meaning it will anchor a seat in the Upstate region. Former Rep. Dan Maffei (D), the man Ms. Buerkle unseated in 2010, has already announced his intention to run again next year.

NC-3 – Rep. Walter Jones (R) – Though Rep. Jones has a safe Republican seat in which to run for re-election, the district has vast new territory for him. Already, retired New Bern Police Chief Frank Palumbo (R) has announced a GOP primary challenge to Mr. Jones. Others could follow suit.

NC-4 – David Price (D) / Brad Miller (D) – The Republican redistricting plan placed two Democratic incumbents in a seat that now stretches from Raleigh to Fayetteville. This will be a difficult primary as each man represents about one-third of this new district. The winner retains the seat for the Democrats.

NC-7 – Mike McIntyre (D) – Redistricting also threw Rep. McIntyre into a difficult district. This will be a top Republican conversion target. Both 2010 GOP nominee Ilario Pantano and state Sen. David Rouzer (R) have announced their intentions to run.

NC-8 – Larry Kissell (D) – Rep. Kissell loses a great number of Democratic votes in this new redistricting plan, making him a tempting GOP target. Three local officials, including one who isn’t from the district, have announced for the seat. Expect more candidates to soon enter the fray.

NC-11 – Heath Shuler (D) – Rep. Shuler may have received the most difficult draw of all, as he now represents the most Republican congressional district in North Carolina. Local District Attorney Jeff Hunt and several local officials already are officially running.

OR-4 – Peter DeFazio (D) – The seat became a touch more Republican in redistricting and Rep. DeFazio raised eyebrows with his comment earlier this week that he is thinking about retirement. Could be competitive in an open situation. Republican Art Robinson, who received 44% of the vote against DeFazio in 2010, is running again.

RI-1 – David Cicilline (D) – Negative stories about Rep. Cicilline’s financial management of Providence when he was mayor has made the freshman congressman potentially vulnerable. Two strong Republican candidates, including 2010 nominee John Loughlin and former state police chief Brendan Doherty, are running. Chances appear high that Cicilline could draw Democratic primary opposition, too.

TN-3 – Charles Fleischmann (R) – Though redistricting is not yet finalized in Tennessee, freshman Rep. Fleischmann in the Chattanooga-based seat will likely face primary opposition. Robin Smith, the local county Republican Party chair who lost to Fleischmann by less than 1,500 votes in 2010, is considering a re-match.

TN-4 – Scott DesJarlais (R) – Mr. DesJarlais, who unseated then-Rep. Lincoln Davis (D) by more than 30,000 votes last November, could see a GOP primary challenge from state Sen. Bill Ketron (R). Sen. Ketron is on the legislative committee in charge of redistricting, which presumably allows him to draw the 4th district to his liking.

TN-8 – Stephen Fincher (R) – Though redistricting is not completed, the 8th district, by virtue of its geographic location in the northwest corner of the state, will likely be competitive in 2012. Mr. Fincher is the first modern-day Republican congressman from this region.

TX-35 – Lloyd Doggett (D) – If the Texas map survives its legal challenges, Rep. Doggett will face a stiff Democratic primary battle in the new 35th District that includes parts of Austin and San Antonio. Already, state Rep. Juan Castro (D), twin brother to San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro (D), has announced he will challenge Doggett.

UT-2 – Jim Matheson (D) – Redistricting will likely put Rep. Matheson in another strongly Republican seat. He already represents the most Republican district held by a Democratic member. Matheson is also a potential statewide candidate. The Republicans will win the seat if he vacates.

WV-1 – David McKinley (R) – Redistricting kept the 1st district largely intact, which is a seat Mr. McKinley can hold, despite it being in Democratic hands for generations before 2010. Ex-Rep. Alan Mollohan, who was defeated in the Democratic primary after 14 terms in office, is a possible candidate in 2012. The Democrats will field a strong challenger here, and this race will be competitive.

WI-7 – Sean Duffy (R) – Mr. Duffy won a seat that was in former Rep. David Obey’s (D) hands for more than 40 years. The district gained Republicans in the re-draw, but Rep. Duffy can expect a stiff re-election challenge from a strong Democrat.

In these two reports (go to our Part I report) we already have isolated 44 incumbents who will face a competitive re-election challenge in either the primary or the general election. Keep in mind that no less than 13 major states still have not completed their redistricting, including Florida, New York, Pennsylvania, and Ohio. Add in at least 26 more open seats and it is conceivable that as many as 90-100 House seats could be contested as the 2012 election hits its stride.
___________________________________________________
For further detailed insights, to sign up for my daily email updates, or to sign up to track specific issues or industries, please contact me at PR***@*******************ts.com.

Weekend House Happenings

Much House political action occurred over the weekend while the debt-limit debate was grabbing so much attention. The release of the amended California redistricting map clarifies several Golden State political situations, assuming these new congressional boundaries are officially adopted Aug. 15 (we will have a full analysis of the substantial changes in the California map as part of tomorrow’s Redistricting Report). We also witnessed developments in Texas, North Carolina, and Hawaii.

Now that the California map is becoming more entrenched, Rep. Jerry McNerney (D-CA-11) announced that he will seek re-election in the new 9th district, formerly referred to as the San Joaquin Valley district. While he represents some of this district today, his political base is on the Bay Area side of his current region. This territory now finds itself in Rep. Pete Stark’s (D-CA-13) new 15th district. Thus, McNerney could either primary Stark in a district more familiar to him, or be the sole incumbent in the San Joaquin Valley seat. He chose the latter. President Obama broke 57 percent in this district, so the general election outcome will clearly favor the Democrats. Mr. McNerney is vulnerable in the Democratic primary, thus making his re-nomination less than certain.

In the previous map, Reps. Xavier Becerra (D-CA-31) and Lucille Roybal-Allard (D-CA-34) were paired with no adjacent escape district. That has now changed, as the map amendments give both their own districts. Becerra is placed in the new 34th; Roybal-Allard in the new 40th. Newly elected Rep. Janice Hahn (D-CA-36) now finds herself as the odd-member-out. Hahn has only bad choices in that she will almost assuredly find herself pitted against another incumbent. The most logical move for her is to run in new District 44, but that seat is only 10 percent Anglo and she will likely have to face Rep. Laura Richardson (D-CA-37) who is moving over from the Long Beach Port district (now the 47th).

Texas, the big winner in reapportionment by gaining four seats, also saw some congressional action over this past weekend. Former railroad commissioner Michael Williams (R), who left his position to run for the Senate, may make yet another course change. Originally abandoning his Senate bid to run for the new Parker/Tarrant Counties 33rd district, he now says he may move a bit to the south and run in new District 25. Former Secretary of State Roger Williams also dropped out of the Senate race and into House District 33 and his campaign war chest is robust. Michael Williams, should he make this second move, would find himself challenging area state legislators for the congressional nomination. It will be a safe Republican seat in the general election.

Turning to the Beaumont area, former Rep. Nick Lampson (D-TX-9 & 22) originally said he was thinking of launching a comeback in the new District 14, being vacated by Rep. Ron Paul (R), because there is a large amount of overlap between this seat and the one he formerly represented from 1997-2005. He then went on to clarify that he is also thinking about new District 36, which is not a direct overlay, but resembles a horseshoe that travels around his previous district. Republicans have a plurality of support in both seats.

In North Carolina, responding to the new redistricting plan that made Rep. Heath Shuler’s (D-NC-11) seat the most Republican in the state, the congressman made it clear over the weekend that he will run for re-election. Speculation was rampant that Shuler could become the athletic director at his alma mater, the University of Tennessee, particularly after he received such a politically unfavorable congressional district. Rep. Shuler’s press secretary released a statement saying the congressman never wanted, nor was ever approached about, the AD slot at the University and he is unequivocal in his desire to run for Congress next year. The statement did not say he would run in new District 11, however. There has been further speculation that he could challenge Rep. Patrick McHenry (R-NC-10) because much of Shuler’s Asheville Democratic base now resides in the 10th district. Ironically, McHenry’s district is slightly more Democratic than Shuler’s. In either place, Mr. Shuler faces a very difficult re-election campaign.

Finally, former Rep. Charles Djou (R-HI-1) made a statement over the weekend that he will likely run for his old seat in 2012 regardless of Rep. Colleen Hanabusa’s (D-HI-1) intentions. The freshman congresswoman is still a potential Senate candidate but is more likely to seek re-election. After his defeat in 2010, Djou said he would never run for another political office. He is also mentioned as a potential Senate candidate if former Gov. Linda Lingle (R) does not run.
___________________________________________________
For further detailed insights, to sign up for my daily email updates, or to sign up to track specific issues or industries, please contact me at PR***@*******************ts.com.

Second Quarter House Financial Reports Show Interesting Developments

The 2nd quarter Federal Election Commission financial reports are now available for public inspection and, after a thorough analysis of the numbers, we find some interesting points.

A total of 255 House candidates exceeded $250,000 in gross receipts for the 2012 election cycle, through June 30, as reported after July 15. Only 25 of those individuals, however, are non-incumbents. This is a low number of challengers and open seat contestants to have currently reached the quarter-million-dollar mark. This is largely explained by highlighting the fact that 2011 is a redistricting year and most of the states have not yet completed the re-map process for the ensuing decade. Therefore, 2012 races will invariably evolve as late-developing campaigns, since many state legislative leaders — Florida being the most important example — have already publicly stated that they will not even begin their redistricting consideration until early next year.

Of the 96 members of the 2010 freshmen class, 92 of whom had not previously served in the House, 54 broke the $250,000 mark in finances raised. Three individuals included in the spreadsheet linked below report participated in 2011 special elections. Three more of the listed candidates are competing in new districts, created via reapportionment and redistricting (two in Texas; one in Washington state), even though the seat has either not yet been drawn or awaits approval from the Justice Department.

The four largest fundraisers who are not members of party leadership, nor major committee chairmen, nor running for President are representatives Allen West (R-FL-22), collecting $2.076 million ($1.266 cash on hand); Tom Latham (R-IA-3), $1.003 million ($1.471 million CoH); Pat Tiberi (R-OH-12), $1.039 million ($1.481 CoH); and Diane Black (R-TN-6), $1.224 million raised ($325,987 cash on hand).

Mr. West will face a difficult re-election in a marginal district that is not yet drawn. Mr. Latham is paired with fellow Rep. Leonard Boswell (D-IA-3) in what looks to be a very tough contest for both men. Mr. Tiberi has a difficult redistricting process to deal with, as Ohio loses two congressional seats and his current district is expected to radically change. Finally, Ms. Black, who should have clear political sailing ahead for the foreseeable future, raises copious amounts of money through direct mail, thus explaining her high number of gross receipts but low cash-on-hand ratio.

That aforementioned spreadsheet listing of the candidates’ financial summaries is linked after this paragraph (a PDF document). Any incumbent or candidate not reaching $250,000 in receipts is excluded. Those incumbents who have announced they will not be seeking re-election, inclusive of those running for higher office, are also not listed in this accounting of House members and candidates.

LINK: House Financials 2nd Qtr 2011

NOTE: If spreadsheet is not viewable, please send an email note to: ji******@******us.com. We will then send you an Excel spreadsheet containing the data.
___________________________________________________
For further detailed insights, to sign up for my daily email updates, or to sign up to track specific issues or industries, please contact me at PR***@*******************ts.com.

Tennessee’s Redistricting Could Cause GOP Primary Challenges

With the Volunteer State’s redistricting process just beginning, rumors are flying that at least two of the state’s four freshman Republicans could be facing serious primary challenges once the districts are re-drawn.

In the Chattanooga-anchored 3rd district, freshman Rep. Chuck Fleischmann may be facing an intra-party challenge from Weston Wamp, son of former Rep. Zach Wamp (R). The latter Wamp served in Congress for 16 years, winning his first election in the Republican landslide year of 1994. He vacated the seat in 2010 for a gubernatorial run, falling in the GOP primary to now-Gov. Bill Haslam.

In the 4th district, which will likely change significantly, freshman Rep. Scott DesJarlais (R) may face stiff competition from state Sen. Bill Ketron in next year’s Republican primary. The new district is likely to be more to Ketron’s liking than are the current boundaries. As a member of the Senate State and Local Government Committee that has jurisdiction over redistricting, he will have a major say as to how the seat is drawn.
___________________________________________________
For further detailed insights, to sign up for my daily email updates, or to sign up to track specific issues or industries, please contact me at PR***@*******************ts.com

Is Heath Shuler Returning to Football?

With the North Carolina redistricting maps set to be released today, and passed during a legislative special session that begins July 13th, rumors are beginning to circulate around Rep. Heath Shuler (D-NC-11). Apparently, Mr. Shuler is a potential candidate to become the athletic director back at his alma mater, the University of Tennessee.

The proposed redistricting map is likely to be unfriendly to Shuler. Early indications are that Rep. Patrick McHenry (R-NC-10) is willing to take a large section of Buncombe County (Asheville), which is the Democratic heart of Shuler’s district. This territory is likely to be replaced by strong Republican precincts that will endanger the incumbent’s re-election prospects even further. Shuler, a former star quarterback at Tennessee who played briefly in the National Football League with the Washington Redskins and New Orleans Saints, could then forego running for a fourth term in the House in order to accept a premier job in the collegiate sports world. Obviously, this would be welcome news for Republicans as they would likely sweep to victory in a new open 11th district.

Speculation is rampant during this time in the political cycle, and the Shuler retirement rumors could prove to have little foundation. It is likely, however, that decision time is coming soon for most of the North Carolina Democratic Representatives as they prepare, for the first time, to face a Republican-drawn congressional map.
___________________________________________________
For further detailed insights, to sign up for my daily email updates, or to sign up to track specific issues or industries, please contact me at PR***@*******************ts.com

Surprising Tennessee Numbers

Public Policy Polling tested first-term GOP Sen. Bob Corker recently (Feb. 9-13; 500 registered Tennessee voters) and found he does well against several hypothetical opponents, but there was one Democrat it found who would provide stiff general election competition. The person faring best against the senator is former Gov. Phil Bredesen (D), who left office at the beginning of 2011 with an extremely high 63:19% positive to negative favorability rating. Such numbers are highly unusual for any person after eight years as a state’s chief executive, meaning the former governor will be a strong candidate should he ever decide again to run for public office. The survey sample gave Bredesen a 46-41% ballot test lead over Sen. Corker. The incumbent’s favorability score, by contrast, is an uninspiring 42:36%.

Corker does well against other Democrats, however. He beats former vice president and Tennessee Sen. Al Gore 53-38%; tops Rep. Jim Cooper (D-TN-5) 50-32%; out-distances ex-Rep. Harold Ford Jr., who now resides in New York and is the man Corker defeated in 2006, 55-32%; and leads former Rep. Bart Gordon (D-TN-6) 52-29%. None of these individuals, including Bredesen, has given any indication that they will challenge Corker at this time. On another note of interest, Corker would beat country music star Tim McGraw 50-28% should the latter venture into Democratic politics. Though the Tennessee senator has a relatively strong political standing, this is one situation that could eventually attract serious Democratic attention.
__________________________________________________
For further detailed insights, to sign up for my daily email updates, or to sign up to track specific issues or industries, please contact me at PR***@*******************ts.com.

Our 2012 Senate Outlook

With three new Senate vacancies already present in the 2012 election cycle, it’s time to update our election grid. Democrats, including the two Independent senators who caucus with the party, must defend 23 states compared to just 10 for Republicans. The GOP needs a net gain of four seats to claim the outright majority, but 13 to reach 60, the number needed to invoke cloture on any issue.

Democratic Seats – Most Vulnerable

North Dakota – Sen. Kent Conrad’s retirement gives the Republicans their best shot at converting a Democratic state. The GOP political bench here is robust and strong, thus the eventual Republican nominee will enter the general election as the favorite.

Nebraska – Sen. Ben Nelson, a retirement possibility, is politically damaged. He already trails at least two potential GOP candidates in polling, Attorney General Jon Bruning and state Treasurer Don Stenberg. Right now, in this very early going, the Republicans are favored to convert the state.

Lean Democrat

Florida – The politically marginal Sunshine State suggests that Sen. Bill Nelson (D) will face a highly competitive 2012 election challenge. The GOP field is yet to be determined, but Rep. Connie Mack IV (R-FL-14) appears to be the only Congressman positioning himself for a run. Right now, Nelson must be viewed as the favorite, but this will become a serious race.

Michigan – The Republican resurgence here, and the early polling, suggests that Sen. Debbie Stabenow has a difficult road to re-election. GOP candidates have yet to come forward, thus the current Lean D rating is attached. Michigan is certainly a state to watch. The presidential election year turnout model is a plus for Stabenow.

Toss-ups

Missouri – Sen. Claire McCaskill is polling in the dead heat range against former Sen. Jim Talent (R), the man she defeated in 2006. Talent is not a sure candidate, but former state treasurer and gubernatorial candidate Sarah Steelman is. Rep. Sam Graves (R-MO-6) also is reportedly considering entering the contest, particularly if Talent remains on the sidelines. All would be very competitive against McCaskill in a state that is trending a bit more Republican during the past two elections.

Montana – Sen. Jon Tester can also expect a very competitive GOP challenge in what is normally a Republican state in a presidential year. Rep. Denny Rehberg (R-MT-AL) has not yet committed to the Senate race. Former Lt. Governor nominee Steve Daines is an official candidate and actively raising money.

Ohio – Sen. Sherrod Brown faces tough sledding presumably against newly elected Lt. Gov. Mary Taylor (R). Ohio will again assume its normal role as a battleground state for the presidential campaign, which, in 2012, could help Taylor. This may become the most hotly contested Senate race in the country.

Virginia – The actions of former governor and Democratic National Committee chair Tim Kaine and defeated gubernatorial candidate and ex-DNC chair Terry McAuliffe (both saying they won’t run for Senate in 2012 under any circumstances) suggests that Sen. Jim Webb will seek re-election, even though the incumbent has yet to confirm his intentions. Former senator and governor George Allen (R) will soon announce his candidacy, setting up a re-match with Webb. The Democrat won by 7,231 votes of more than 2.3 million cast five years ago. Early polling suggests a dead heat.

Questions

Hawaii – Speculation is prevalent that Sen. Daniel Akaka, who will be 88 at the time of the 2012 election, will retire. If so, the Republicans will be competitive with former Gov. Linda Lingle. If Akaka runs, and early indications suggest he will, the Democratic incumbent should have little trouble winning again.

New Jersey – Sen. Bob Menendez is polling below 50% in early survey trials but comfortably ahead of all potential Republican rivals. Though the senator is the decided favorite today, this race could become one to watch. Republicans may be looking most favorably toward entrepreneur John Crowley, who appears to have the potential of generating measurable political strength.

New Mexico – Sen. Jeff Bingaman (D) is in strong position for re-election and is viewed as a heavy favorite. Republican former Rep. Heather Wilson (R-NM-1), always a good vote-getter, could make challenging Bingaman a competitive race. She is said to be seriously considering launching a bid.

Wisconsin – Though he has been mum on his re-election intentions, Sen. Herb Kohl is another retirement possibility. If he chooses not to run, defeated Sen. Russ Feingold (D) waits in the wings to run again. Should the senator seek re-election, he will likely face only a minor challenge.

Likely Democrat

Connecticut – Sen. Joe Lieberman’s (I) retirement, thereby avoiding an unpredictable three-way race, greatly improves the Democrats’ chances. Rep. Chris Murphy (D-CT-5) and ex-Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz are announced Democratic candidates. Edward Kennedy Jr., son of the late senator, is rumored as a possibility. The two losing 2010 nominees, Tom Foley in the governor’s race and Linda McMahon for the Senate, are both mentioned as possible candidates; so is former Rep. Rob Simmons (R-CT-2).

Pennsylvania – Until the Republicans field a top-tier candidate, something they have yet to do, Sen. Bob Casey Jr. is a strong favorite for re-election. A serious campaign could develop, but not unless a stronger Republican joins the current field of candidates.

Rhode Island – The Republicans could move this state into the competitive category if former Gov. Don Carcieri (R) decides to run. In a presidential year, it is unlikely he will, so Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse is a solid favorite for re-election. 2010 gubernatorial nominee John Robitaille (R) has already closed the door on a senatorial challenge.

Vermont – Sen. Bernie Sanders (I) is another strong favorite for re-election, but state Auditor Tom Salmon (R) is making noises about challenging the first-term senator. A statewide official would give the Republicans the opportunity of making this a competitive race.

Safe Democrats

California – Dianne Feinstein (D)
Delaware – Tom Carper (D)
Maryland – Ben Cardin (D)
New York – Kirsten Gillibrand (D)
Washington – Maria Cantwell (D)
West Virginia – Joe Manchin (D)

Republican Questions

Arizona – Retirement rumors are swirling around Sen. Jon Kyl. The senator has yet to begin an active re-election effort, thus suggesting he may decide to call it a career. The seat is competitive in an open situation.

Nevada – This is clearly the most vulnerable Republican seat, should scandal-tainted Sen. John Ensign win re-nomination. Rep. Dean Heller (R-NV-2) is considering a Republican primary challenge. Heller would have a good chance of winning the nomination and the seat. Democrats are in strong shape if Ensign qualifies for the general election. Rep. Shelley Berkley (D-NV-1) is a potential Democratic candidate and promises to make her intentions known in mid-February.

Lean Republican

Massachusetts – Sen. Scott Brown (R), elected in an early 2010 special election, must stand for a full term in 2012. Despite Massachusetts being one of the most reliable of Democratic states, Brown’s numbers appear strong and he has a legitimate chance to win again. Once the Democratic field gels, a better assessment can be made.

Likely Republican

Indiana – Sen. Richard Lugar (R), who will be 80 at the time of the 2012 general election, has already announced that he is seeking re-election. A predicted Tea Party primary challenge could be his biggest problem. Lugar looks strong in a general election, but the GOP primary situation could change the outlook.

Maine – Sen. Olympia Snowe (R) has some of the better general election approval ratings of any 2012 in-cycle senator but, she too, has Tea Party problems in the Republican primary. Her situation in that regard has improved of late, however.

Safe Republicans

Mississippi – Roger Wicker (R)
Tennessee – Bob Corker (R)
Texas – Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) – Open Seat
Utah – Orrin Hatch (R) – Potential Tea Party convention challenge
Wyoming – John Barrasso (R)

Analyzing this initial line-up, it appears the Republicans’ chances of gaining an outright majority are good today, though there is no chance the net increase could be so high as to score filibuster-proof control.
__________________________________________________
For further detailed insights, to sign up for my daily email updates, or to sign up to track specific issues or industries, please contact me at PR***@*******************ts.com.

The 2010 Election Turnout

Throughout the 2010 election cycle, we often mentioned that campaigns are always decided by the turnout model, especially in mid-term voting. Since a lower number of people participate in non-presidential elections, and 2010 was no exception, the groups of voters coming to the polls then determines which party wins and loses.

The preliminary 2010 turnout patterns, remembering that ballot counting in some states is not quite finished, clearly points to the fact that Republicans were in fact way more energized to vote, as the pre-election polling continually predicted.

The landslide, particularly at the U.S. House and state legislative level, occurred because Republicans did very well in states that have either been trending toward their opposition in the last two elections, or are normally reliable Democratic performers. The fact that many of these states turned out fewer voters in 2010 than they did in 2006, despite population gains, provides us clear evidence.

Of the Democratic states where Republicans made strong inroads, we see the same turnout pattern occurring. The Michigan, New York, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin voter participation rates show unmistakable evidence that the Democratic voter base was demoralized. Since the results in these states, by and large, heavily favored the GOP and turnout was down from 2006, it is clear that the turnout dip was disproportionately felt on the Democratic side.

In Michigan, turnout was down a whopping 19.7% from 2006. This also translates into a 36.7% drop-off from 2008. With Republicans winning the Governorship, two US House seats, and both houses of the legislature, it is clear that the lower turnout was very likely exclusively within the Democratic voting sector.

Pennsylvania also was down, again indicating that Democrats simply were not voting at a normal level. The Keystone State saw turnout drop 2.7% from ’06, with a 35% drop-off rate from the presidential election. Here, the Republicans gained the Governorship, a U.S. Senate seat, five congressional seats, and the state House, while holding the state Senate. In Wisconsin — where the GOP won the Governorship, defeated a sitting Democratic U.S. Senator, gained two congressional seats and both houses of the legislature — turnout fell into a similar pattern as the aforementioned states, but not to the same degree. There, it dropped just 1% from 2006, and was off 28.5% from 2008.

Though a small state, South Dakota is also in this category. They elected a Republican Governor and defeated a popular Democratic at-large U.S. Representative. Total turnout was down 5.8% from ’06, but with only a 17% drop-off from the last presidential election.

Ohio, though not traditionally a Democratic state but which has performed as such in both 2006 and 2008, also fit the lower turnout pattern. There, the Republicans defeated an incumbent Governor, held an open U.S. Senate seat, gained five congressional districts, the state House and held the state Senate. 2010 turnout was off 6.1% from ’06 and 37% from the presidential election.

Another reason for the GOP landslide was that turnout experienced a boost in the more traditional Republican states. Arizona, which witnessed a strong Republican comeback when compared to 2006 and 2008 with wins at the gubernatorial, U.S. Senate, U.S. House (+2) and state legislative levels, saw a huge increase in turnout when compared with the last mid-term election of 2006. There, turnout rose a huge 24.8% over 2006, but the drop-off from 2008 was still significant at 33.3%. This shows a disproportionately low turnout in ’06, thus proving that demoralization among the Arizona Republican voter base of that year was severe.

Two states that didn’t fit the pattern were the more Republican state of Tennessee and the Democratic state of Illinois. Though GOP gains were major in TN, turnout actually dropped a huge 15.7% from 2006, and was off 39.6% when compared to the presidential race. In Illinois, Democratic in nature and a state that one would expect to fit the lower turnout pattern, saw voter participation increase 7.9% from 2006. Republicans won a U.S. Senate seat here, but did not convert the Governor’s office as was expected prior to the election. The GOP went on to gain three congressional districts.

More definitive answers will be determined when all of the 2010 voting numbers become final and official.