Tag Archives: South Carolina

South Carolina Sen. Graham’s
Budding Primary Challenge

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Jan. 22, 2025

Senate

South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Several Republican Senators are already seeing potential GOP primary opponents beginning to make moves to launch their 2026 challenge campaigns.

One such potential primary is developing in South Carolina. Sen. Lindsey Graham said this week that he will seek re-election for a fifth term next year. Concurrently, Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill) continues to make public statements confirming that he is testing the political waters for a primary challenge against Sen. Graham.

Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston), who previously ran unsuccessfully against Sen. Graham in 2014, is also says she is considering making another bid but has recently been less vociferous about making such a move.

Rep. Norman was initially elected to his 5th Congressional District position in a 2017 special election to replace then-Rep. Mick Mulvaney (R) who resigned to join the first Trump Administration. Prior to serving in federal office, Norman was elected to six non-consecutive terms in the South Carolina House of Representatives. He unsuccessfully ran for Congress in 2006.

Congressman Norman has averaged 61.1 percent of the vote in his four regular election campaigns after winning the initial special election with just 51 percent. The result was considered an underperformance in a seat that the FiveThirtyEight data organization now rates as R+15, and The Down Ballot data organization ranks as the 90th safest seat in the House Republican Conference.

For his part, Sen. Graham has averaged 62 percent of the vote in his last two Republican primaries (2020 and 2014). In the 2020 general election, despite having an opponent, now current but outgoing Democratic National Committee chairman Jaime Harrison, raise over $132 million against him, or $20 million more than Graham commanded, the Senator won the election by just over ten percentage points in what became a national campaign. Therefore, denying the Senator renomination or re-election in 2026 will be no easy feat.

While Rep. Norman confirmed his interest in a Senate challenge this week he did not commit to running. The Congressman previously stated he also had a potential interest in entering the open race for Governor but is no longer making any comments about this move. While Sen. Graham has over $15.6 million cash-on-hand in his year-end campaign finance report, Rep. Norman ended the 2024 campaign cycle with $601,000 in the bank, approximately $15 million behind the Senator.

Norman has been a strong supporter of President-Elect Donald Trump throughout the latter’s political career and would likely be work for an endorsement if he were to run for the Senate. Sen. Graham, while originally an opponent of Trump in the 2016 Republican presidential primary, has since become one of his stronger supporters in the Senate.

Therefore, it is not out of the realm of possibility that the President would potentially support Graham, or simply stay out of the race. Defeating a Republican incumbent in a primary without a Trump endorsement has proven a very difficult task for GOP intraparty challengers around the country.

Sen. Graham is certainly not the only Republican Senator who may face a primary. Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA) will engage in a campaign opposite State Treasurer and former Congressman John Fleming, while simultaneously Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) may see his state’s Attorney General, Ken Paxton, launch his own campaign.

Talk continues that Sens. Susan Collins (R-ME) and Joni Ernst (R-IA) may also be challenged for renomination, but nothing concrete has yet developed in their states. In Florida, Rep. Cory Mills (R-New Smyrna Beach) says he will oppose whomever Gov. Ron DeSantis appoints to replace Sen. Marco Rubio upon the latter’s confirmation as Secretary of State.

Though we may see a legitimate Republican primary battle evolve in South Carolina next year, Sen. Graham must be rated as the favorite to prevail against any and all GOP opponents. In a strongly conservative state such as South Carolina, the Republican primary is likely the main political battlefield. Whoever earns the GOP nomination will be the prohibitive favorite to hold the seat in November 2026.

Gubernatorial Campaigns Projected to Affect US House Balance of Power

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Jan. 6, 2024

Governor

Term-limited Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey (R)

As the new Congress begins, election observers are already contemplating how the many open 2026 Governors’ campaigns might affect the razor-thin US House majority.

Looking toward next year’s election, a total of 36 states will host gubernatorial campaigns. In the 19 places where term limits are in effect, we will see open statewide contests. In many of these developing races, US House members are potential candidates. Therefore, protecting the small GOP majority with a large number of open seats becomes an even more difficult task.

Representatives who could run for an open Governor’s position are already rumored or announced in 10 states: Alabama, Colorado, Florida, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, South Carolina, and Tennessee.

Alabama Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R) opting to seek re-election instead of running for Governor opens the field to replace term-limited Gov. Kay Ivey (R).

It is unlikely that Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Weaver/Gadsen) will risk his role as chairman of the House Armed Services Committee to run for Governor, but he is considered a possible candidate. Rep. Gary Palmer (R-Hoover), chairman of the House Policy Committee, is also a potential gubernatorial contender.

Already, polling is suggesting that Rep. Joe Neguse (D-Lafayette/Boulder) is the leading potential candidate to succeed term-limited Colorado Gov. Jared Polis (D). Yet we can expect a lively Democratic primary possibly between Reps. Neguse and Jason Crow (D-Aurora). It is doubtful that any Centennial State Republican House member, largely comprised of freshmen, will jump into the open Governor’s campaign.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R), being ineligible to seek a third term, leaves a wide-open succession field. The person DeSantis appoints as the new Senator when incumbent Marco Rubio is confirmed as the US Secretary of State may influence who runs for Governor. Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Naples) is the congressional member most often mentioned as having an interest in running for the office. The eventual GOP nominee will have the inside track of winning the next Sunshine State gubernatorial general election.

In Maine, all eyes are on whether Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) will attempt to replace term-limited Gov. Janet Mills (D). So far, Golden has not provided any hints about his future political plans.

The odd-year New Jersey open Governor race has already attracted two Democratic House members into the 2025 campaign, Reps. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair), who leads in early polling, and Josh Gottheimer (D-Wycoff) who enjoys a big edge in fundraising.

At the end of this term, Henry McMaster (R) will be the longest-serving Governor in South Carolina history but cannot run again to succeed himself. South Carolina has a two-term limit, but McMaster ascended to the office from his post as Lieutenant Governor when then-Gov. Nikki Haley resigned to become US Ambassador to the United Nations and did so during a time frame that still allowed him to run for two full terms.

A crowded open Republican primary field will form and could feature two US House members. Both Reps. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston) and Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill) have indicated they are considering gubernatorial bids. Mace has also not quelled speculation that she could challenge Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) as he seeks renomination for a fifth term.

In Tennessee, several Republican House members are considering a bid for Governor but could be effectively blocked should just re-elected Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R) continue to make moves suggesting that she will run.

Reps. Tim Burchett (R-Knoxville), Andy Ogles (R-Columbia), John Rose (R-Cookeville), and Mark Green (R-Clarksville) have all either indicated they are considering running for Governor or speculation has surrounded them regarding launching such a campaign. Incumbent Republican Bill Lee is ineligible to run for a third term.

While a midterm election cycle typically attracts lower voter interest, 2026 will feature a large number of competitive statewide campaigns. Expect the many open Governors’ races to also ignite a round of political musical chairs in several US House delegations.

Senator Schiff? Durbin Retirement Announcement? Rep. Mace Considers Political Future; Republican Challenger to Gov. Shapiro?

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Dec. 12, 2024

Senate

Newly appointed California Sen. Adam Schiff (D)

California: Schiff Takes Office — There is a bit of confusion surrounding California Rep. Adam Schiff being sworn into the Senate before the next Congress convenes. In November, Schiff defeated retired baseball player Steve Garvey (R), 59-41 percent, for the regular term. Yet, Senator-Elect Schiff already has been sworn into office as a Senator. This is because appointed Sen. Laphonza Butler (D) resigned the seat after the election as she promised. Butler was appointed to the Senate to replace the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) who passed away in September of 2023.

Schiff, on Nov. 5, also won the special election to fill the balance of the unexpired term. Because of California’s long election certification period, neither the regular term nor the special election results are yet certified; therefore, Gov. Newsom has appointed now-Senator Schiff during the interim.

Illinois: Sen. Durbin to Make Announcement in January — Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL), during a CNN interview, indicated he will make an announcement about whether he will seek a sixth term, “after the first of the year.”

Sen. Durbin, now 80 years old, was first elected to the Senate in 1996 after serving seven terms in the US House of Representatives. Should he decide to retire, we can expect to see a crowded Democratic primary form, with the winner of the March 2026 primary becoming a definitive favorite to win the succeeding general election.

South Carolina: Rep. Mace Considering Primary Challenge — Earlier it was reported that Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston), who was just re-elected to a third term, confirmed she is considering entering the open 2026 Governor’s race. She is reportedly also looking at potentially launching another challenge to Sen. Lindsey Graham in the ’26 Republican Senatorial primary.

In 2014, Mace, then the first woman to graduate from The Citadel, was one of six Republicans who challenged Sen. Graham, who was then completing his second term. She finished fifth in the field of seven, securing only 6.2 percent of the statewide vote. Sen. Graham won that primary with 56 percent of the vote. While it is clear Mace would attract more support in a 2026 challenge, she would again face an uphill challenge to Sen. Graham who is arguably much stronger with the Republican base than he was in 2014.

Six years later, the Senator faced a major challenge from Democrat Jaime Harrison, who would later become Democratic National Committee chairman. Harrison raised an incredible $132 million in his 2020 race against Graham, but the Senator still prevailed with a comfortable 10 percentage point win. At this early stage of the 2026 election cycle, Sen. Graham must again be considered a strong favorite for re-election regardless of what Republican or Democratic opponent might emerge.

Governor

Pennsylvania: Rep. Meuser Contemplating Gov Race — Pennsylvania Rep. Dan Meuser (R-Dallas/Lebanon), who was just re-elected to a fourth term, confirmed earlier this week that he is considering launching a general election challenge to Gov. Josh Shapiro (D). With Gov. Shapiro enjoying positive job approval ratings and rumored as a potential presidential candidate in 2028, the incumbent will be difficult to dislodge.

Therefore, for Republicans, this race looks like a long shot, so it will be interesting to see if Meuser would risk his safe House seat for a difficult statewide run. To date, no one has yet come forward to declare a gubernatorial candidacy.

Collins vs. Mills in Maine? Potential Senate Challenger to Lindsey Graham; Lara Trump Destroys Sen. Tillis in New Poll; Tenn. Gov Race

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Dec. 5, 2024

Senate

Maine Sen. Susan Collins (R)

Maine: Collins vs. Mills? — Maine Gov. Janet Mills (D) did not close the door on a 2026 challenge to Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) when asked about the possibility late last week, but other comments and circumstances suggest that she is unlikely to launch such a campaign. In any event, expect the Democrats to field a strong candidate against Sen. Collins even if they fail to entice Gov. Mills into running.

As an aside, the governor was actually laudatory in a comment about Sen. Collins becoming the chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee. Gov. Mills stated that she is “pleased” Collins will have her new position and termed it as “an asset for the State of Maine.” These are not quite the comments one might expect from a future political opponent.

South Carolina: Potential Challenger to Sen. Graham — Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill), who in November was just re-elected to his fifth term in the US House, is confirming reports that he is considering a Republican primary challenge to Sen. Lindsey Graham or entering what will be an open race for governor. In the latter race, incumbent Henry McMaster (R) is ineligible to seek a third full term.

Both races would be considered uphill. While Rep. Norman is more conservative than Sen. Graham, the latter man has a strong relationship with President-Elect Donald Trump. Therefore, what might normally be considered a Trump endorsement for Norman may not materialize in this case. For governor, the potential leading candidate is two-term Attorney General Alan Wilson (R), son of veteran Congressman Joe Wilson (R-Springdale). Another reported potential gubernatorial candidate is Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston).

North Carolina: Lara Trump Destroys Sen. Tillis in New Poll — The Victory Insights data organization surveyed the North Carolina electorate about the upcoming 2026 US Senate race, and a Republican primary battle between Sen. Thom Tillis and Republican National Committee Co-Chair Lara Trump would break decidedly toward the challenger. In the general election, both Sen. Tillis and Lara Trump would each trail outgoing Gov. Roy Cooper (D) by one percentage point according to the VI data.

Victory Insights (Nov. 26-27 & 29; 800 registered North Carolina voters; interactive voice response system & text) finds that among an undisclosed sample of Republican primary voters, Trump, a native of North Carolina, would easily defeat Sen. Tillis in the GOP primary by a whopping 64-11 percent count. At this point, there is no indication that she would run, but this poll is certainly a warning sign for Sen. Tillis.

Governor

Tennessee: Rep. Burchett Considering Gov Race — Tennessee Gov. Bill Lee (R) is another of the state chief executives who is ineligible to seek re-election, thereby the Volunteer State will also feature an open governor’s campaign. Even before the 2024 election, Rep. John Rose (R-Cookeville) made clear his intention to run for governor. Now, Rep. Tim Burchett (R-Knoxville) is also confirming that he, too, is considering a run for the state’s top job.

We are sure to see crowded open seat gubernatorial primaries in both parties around the country in 2026. It already appears that Tennessee will certainly feature a hot contest to succeed Gov. Lee.

Primary Results: Bowman Loses; Boebert, Curtis, Maloy Win

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, June 26, 2024

Primary Results

Assuming the still unofficial Virginia congressional race that will likely see Rep. Bob Good (R-Lynchburg) lose to state Sen. John McGuire (R-Manakin Sabot) holds as expected, the second US House member of the cycle went down to a crushing defeat last night in New York.

In the west, Utah US Rep. John Curtis (R-Provo) has punched his ticket for the US Senate, and Colorado US Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Silt) successfully claimed the Republican nomination in a new district. In a contested Utah congressional race, short-term incumbent Celeste Maloy (R-Cedar City) looks to have won a close renomination campaign.

George Latimer defeats Rep. Jamaal Bowman. (Photo by Malcolm Frouman)

New York — The big story of the Empire State’s political evening is Westchester County Executive George Latimer easily defeating US Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-Yonkers) in what is being called the most expensive congressional primary in US history.

Approximately $30 million was spent in this campaign when adding the two candidates’ expenditures and including all the outside money. The American Israel Public Affairs Committee’s affiliated Super PAC looks to have spent over $17 million toward defeating Bowman, one of the most ardent anti-Israel House members. With a majority vote exceeding 58 percent, Latimer convincingly denied the congressman’s renomination.

Four years after Bowman unseated then-Rep. Eliot Engel in the 2020 Democratic primary, he sees the tables turn in this election. Ironically, Bowman’s 55-41 percent ousting of Rep. Engel is similar to the 58-41 percent suffered in his own primary defeat.

Latimer, in his current position, represents 91 percent of the 16th Congressional District. Before winning his county position, Latimer had been elected to the state Senate and Assembly. In last night’s primary, he captured over 63 percent of the dominant Westchester County vote. In the remaining small Bronx County portion, Rep. Bowman recorded almost 84 percent support.

Elsewhere in the state, former CNN reporter John Avlon easily defeated former congressional nominee Nancy Goroff in the 1st District Democratic primary. Avlon now advances to the general election as an underdog to face freshman Rep. Nick LaLota (R-Suffolk County).

New York City Rep. Dan Goldman turned back two Democratic opponents with 66 percent of the vote, which will secure him a second term in November from the Manhattan anchored 10th CD.

Turning to the Queens-Bronx 14th District, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez won an easy renomination against a minor Democratic opponent with 82 percent of the vote.

In what will be a very competitive Syracuse-based 22nd District general election, as expected, state Sen. John Mannion claimed the Democratic nomination last night with a 62-38 percent victory over local town councilwoman Sarah Klee Hood even though the latter contender won three of the district’s five counties. Sen. Mannion now advances into a toss-up general election versus freshman Rep. Brandon Williams (R-Syracuse) in a race that will have national majority implications.

In the Upstate 24th District, Rep. Claudia Tenney (R-Canandaigua) defeated attorney Mario Fratto with 61 percent of the vote. The congresswoman claimed 13 of the district’s 14 counties as she turned back a spirited effort from Fratto. Rep. Tenney now becomes a prohibitive favorite to defeat Democrat David Wagenhauser in the November election.

Colorado — A busy primary night in the Centennial State saw much of the action occurring in the state’s eastern 4th CD, vacant because of former Rep. Ken Buck’s (R) resignation. Rep. Boebert, moving into the district from her western slope 3rd CD, easily captured the GOP nomination, which is usually tantamount to winning in November. Congresswoman Boebert recorded 43.2 percent preference to finish first, well ahead of second-place finisher Jerry Sonnenberg, a local county commissioner. He received just 14.5 percent. The third, fourth, and fifth place finishers all scored between 13.8 and 10.6 percent of the vote.

Boebert will now face Democratic speechwriter Trisha Calvarese, who scraped past two-time congressional nominee Ike McCorkle. McCorkle raised more than $1.4 million for his failed campaign. Calvarese was the party’s choice for the special election to fill the remaining part of the current term.

The Republican special election nominee, who agreed to serve only as a caretaker until the general election picks a permanent member, easily won the concurrent election. Former local mayor Greg Lopez, without spending much money, recorded a strong 58-34 percent victory over Calvarese to secure the seat for the GOP in a vote that is projected to draw more than 172,000 cast ballots. Rep-Elect Lopez will become the 220th member of the Republican conference.

The House will now be down to two vacancies, one from each party. The Wisconsin seat of resigned Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-Green Bay) and the death of New Jersey Rep. Donald Payne, Jr. (D-Newark) are the remaining districts without member representation.

Elsewhere in the state, attorney Jeff Hurd, despite Democratic attempts to vault Republican former state Rep. Ron Hanks to the 3rd District GOP nomination, won the party primary with 41.5 percent of the vote over five Republican opponents. The Hurd victory gives the Republicans their strongest candidate in an attempt to hold Rep. Boebert’s western slope district against 2022 Democratic nominee Adam Frisch, who held the congresswoman to a 546-vote win, the previous cycle’s closest US House race.

In retiring Rep. Doug Lamborn’s (R-Colorado Springs) open 5th District, radio talk show host, and three-time congressional candidate Jeff Crank, easily defeated Colorado Republican Party chairman Dave Williams with a whopping 67-33 percent margin. Despite the two opposing each other in two campaigns, Rep. Lamborn and Crank came together for this contest. The 5th District is safely Republican, so Crank becomes a sure bet to succeed Rep. Lamborn in the next Congress.

Utah — Overcoming the Donald Trump and Utah Republican Party-endorsed candidate, Riverton Mayor Trent Staggs, US Rep. John Curtis (R-Provo) recorded an impressive 51-29-13-6 percent victory over Staggs, former state House Speaker Brad Wilson, and businessman Jason Walton to win the open Republican US Senate nomination. The congressman carried 28 of Utah’s 29 counties.

Curtis now becomes the strongest of favorites to defeat Democrat Caroline Gleich in the general election. Rep. Curtis will then succeed retiring Sen. Mitt Romney (R).

Rep. Blake Moore (R-Salt Lake City) also defeated an official Utah Republican Party-endorsed candidate, Paul Miller, with 72 percent of the GOP primary vote.

The going was much tougher for freshman Rep. Celeste Maloy (R-Cedar City) who eked out what will likely be a 51-49 percent win over businessman Colby Jenkins who had strong support from US Sen. Mike Lee (R-UT). Rep. Maloy will now advance into the general election where she will secure her first full congressional term.

In Rep. Curtis’ open District 3, Trump and state party endorsed candidate Mike Kennedy, a physician and state senator, scored a crowded primary victory with 36 percent of the vote over four Republican opponents. State Auditor John “Frugal” Dougall, who ran as the MAGA opposition candidate, calling himself “mainstream” fell to a last place finish with just eight percent of the vote. In a district the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+26, Sen. Kennedy will have little trouble securing the seat in November.

South Carolina Runoff — The lone South Carolina congressional runoff occurred in the state’s western open 3rd District from which Rep. Jeff Duncan (R-Laurens) is retiring. In a very close finish, Gov. Henry McMaster’s (R) endorsed candidate, Air National Guard Lt. Col. Sheri Biggs, defeated Donald Trump-endorsed pastor Mark Burns, 51-49 percent, after Burns finished first in the June 11 primary. In another safe Republican district (538 rating: R+44), Biggs is now a lock to claim the seat in the general election.

Primary Action Today

READER ADVISORY: This short video of New York Rep. Jamaal Bowman contains profanity-laced language throughout his appearance. It is only a brief clip of his appearance at the rally.

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, June 25, 2024

Today’s Primaries

Today brings us another series of important primaries. Voters in New York, Colorado, Utah, and South Carolina will decide nominations in either primary elections or a congressional runoff and special election.

It is likely that Utah Republican voters will effectively elect a new US senator tonight. Three House incumbents in the various primary states are in highly competitive races, the most vulnerable of whom is two-term Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-NY). Reps. Celeste Maloy (R-UT) and Lauren Boebert (R-CO) also face intra-party challenges. A South Carolina runoff will effectively elect a new House member, and eastern Colorado voters will fill resigned Rep. Ken Buck’s (R) vacancy for the remainder of the current term.

New York — The Empire State nomination elections feature one major battle, that in the 16th Congressional District Democratic primary as Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-Yonkers) is in severe danger of losing renomination to Westchester County Executive George Latimer. Bowman (seen above in a Saturday campaign event that has gotten quite a bit of attention) has been out-raised by Latimer by well over $1 million. The outside money, mostly coming from the American Israel Public Affairs Committee’s United Democracy PAC, has dropped over $17 million either to support Latimer or oppose Rep. Bowman. This contrasts to the $2 million in outside support for Bowman.

The latest poll released of the race, from Emerson College (June 6-8; 425 likely NY-16 Democratic primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) posted Latimer to a 48-31 percent advantage over Rep. Bowman. While it appears that Rep. Bob Good (R-VA) lost his close renomination battle last week, Rep. Bowman may become the second incumbent to fall to a primary challenger in this election cycle.

Most of the delegation, including Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D), face little or no competition tonight. Rep. Claudia Tenney (R-Canandaigua) should easily dispatch her 24th District primary challenger, attorney Mario Fratto. Reps. Dan Goldman (D-New York City) and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-East Elmhurst) also face minor primary opposition.

In Long Island’s 1st District, Democrats are choosing between former CNN News reporter John Avlon and 2020 nominee Nancy Goroff. The winner then challenges freshman Rep. Nick LaLota (R-Suffolk County) in the general election.

Turning to the Syracuse-anchored 22nd CD, it is arguable that freshman GOP Rep. Brandon Williams (R-Syracuse) received the most unfavorable redraw in the new redistricting map. Vying for the Democratic nomination are state Sen. John Mannion (D-Syracuse) and DeWitt Town Councilwoman Sarah Klee Hood. Sen. Mannion is favored for the nomination, and the general election promises to end in close fashion.

Colorado — The race attracting the most attention is the open 4th District where Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Silt) is moving from the western slope 3rd District across the state into eastern Colorado’s 4th CD. With her two top opponents falling by the political wayside, it appears Rep. Boebert will win nomination from her new CD. The Democratic primary is worth watching even in this district where the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+26. Early polling suggests that Rep. Boebert will be in a competitive general election even in the state’s strongest Republican district.

Rep. Boebert’s current district features a competitive Republican primary to replace her as the party nominee. Democrats are spending money to elevate former state representative and 2022 US Senate candidate Ron Hanks, who they believe would be a weaker general election nominee than attorney Jeff Hurd. The winner faces former Aspen City Councilman Adam Frisch (D), who held Rep. Boebert to a 546-vote win in 2022, making it the closest finish of any congressional race in the previous election cycle.

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Incumbents Prevail Again

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, June 12, 2024

Primary Results

No major surprises occurred in primary elections last night. Once more, challenged incumbents all won their renomination efforts. The most competitive were in South Carolina. Turning to Ohio, Republican Michael Rulli, after trailing early, successfully claimed the 6th District special election to replace resigned Rep. Bill Johnson (R).

Austin Theriault (R), retired NASCAR driver and Maine state representative.

Maine — In the state’s lone competitive US House primary, as expected, retired NASCAR driver and state Rep. Austin Theriault (R-Ft. Kent) easily won the Republican primary, defeating fellow state representative and actor Mike Soboleski (R-Phillips) with almost two-thirds of the vote.

Theriault will advance into the general election against Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston). Should former President Donald Trump continue with his large polling lead in this district over President Joe Biden, the turnout model should be favorable for Theriault, thus making this a competitive race to watch in the general election. Ranked Choice Voting, which has previously helped Golden, will again be used in this race should no contender record majority support on the initial count.

Nevada — As expected, Afghan War veteran Sam Brown was an easy winner in the Republican Senate primary and now advances to officially challenge Sen. Jacky Rosen who was naturally a big winner in the Democratic primary. This will be a top-tier general election contest.

In the three potentially competitive Las Vegas House races, 2022 1st District nominee Mark Robertson appears to have won the multi-candidate Republican primary and will again challenge Rep. Dina Titus (D). Robertson did not run a particularly good campaign two years ago, losing by six percentage points. He will have to substantially improve if he is to become a serious contender in 2024.

In the 3rd District, the Republican primary is close, but it appears that marketing consultant Drew Johnson will prevail for the nomination. He will then advance to challenge Rep. Susie Lee (D) in what should be the most competitive of the three seats.

In District 4, former North Las Vegas Mayor and ex-Democrat John Lee, has won the Republican primary and will challenge veteran Rep. Steven Horsford (D) in November.

The three Las Vegas seats should be competitive, but the Democratic incumbents in each of the districts are early favorites to win re-election.

North Dakota — Public Service Commissioner Julie Fedorchak, with backing from former President Trump and Gov. Doug Burgum, won the at-large Republican primary last evening defeating former state Rep. Rich Becker and 2018 Miss American Cara Mund. The Fedorchak nomination victory is tantamount to winning the at-large seat in the general election.

The House seat is open because three-term US Rep. Kelly Armstrong (R-Bismarck) easily won the Republican gubernatorial nomination, as he defeated Lt. Gov. Tammy Miller with more than 70 percent of the GOP vote. Armstrong will now be the prohibitive favorite to replace retiring Gov. Burgum in the general election.

South Carolina — The most interesting House races were in South Carolina where two incumbents faced credible competition. As has been the case in all contested campaigns this year, the incumbents again prevailed.

Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston) posted 57 percent in her battle against former Haley Administration cabinet secretary Catherine Templeton and non-profit corporation executive Bill Young. Polling had placed Rep. Mace well ahead of her opponents, but the question lingered as to whether she would exceed the majority vote threshold. Doing so easily, and with the Supreme Court not changing the 1st District in its ruling last month, Rep. Mace is now officially on her way to winning a third term in November.

In the Greenville-Spartanburg seat, Rep. William Timmons (R) also won re-election, turning back state Rep. Adam Morgan (R-Greenville) with another close 52-48 percent victory margin, the same margin of his 2022 primary win.

The open 3rd District from which Rep. Jeff Duncan (R-Laurens) is retiring will head to a runoff election in two weeks. Pastor and National Guard veteran Mark Burns placed first and will face National Guard Lt. Col. Sheri Biggs, who has Gov. Henry McMaster’s endorsement. The pair finished within two points of each other and now advance to the June 25 election. The winner of the secondary election will take the seat in November.

OH-6 — The evening’s special general election was decided in the Republicans’ favor, but in a closer than expected finish against a Democratic candidate who had little in the way of resources. Ohio state Sen. Michael Rulli (R-Salem) defeated Democrat Michael Kripchak with a 55-45 percent margin.

The Rulli victory will bring the Republican Conference to 219 members with another special election, that in the CO-4 district, to be decided on June 25.

Once again, we see a Republican candidate slightly under-performing in a special election from a district that should have returned a victory in the much higher 50s. Rep-Elect Rulli and Kripchak will now advance to the regular general election. Rulli will again be favored and should win with a larger margin in November from a district that ex-President Trump will carry heavily.