Tag Archives: Sen. Tim Scott

Good News / Bad News for DeSantis; Pastor Withdraws in Arizona;
A Challenger in GA-13

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Aug. 25, 2023

President

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) Photo by Gage Skidmore

Iowa: Selzer & Company Releases Survey — The Hawkeye State’s proven most accurate pollster, Selzer & Company, released a pre-debate poll in partnership with NBC News and the Des Moines Register newspaper. This research study provides some needed good news for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis as his 66 percent positive rating is the best of any presidential candidate, although only one percentage point better than former President Donald Trump.

Trump still leads the first choice ballot test, however, with 42-19-9-6-6 percent split over Gov. DeSantis, Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC), former Vice President Mike Pence, businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, and ex-UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, respectively. He tops Gov. DeSantis by only two points when first, second, and “considering” categories are added and assigned an aggregate point value. The Iowa Republican Caucus is scheduled for Jan. 15, 2024.

New Hampshire: DeSantis Drops to Fourth — The Granite State Echelon Insights data (8/15-17; 800 NH likely Republican primary voters; live interview & text) sees former President Donald Trump leading the pack of candidates with a rather low support factor of 34 percent. Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie was second with 14 percent, and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy follows in third position at 11 percent support. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis posts a disappointing nine percent.

It is likely the New Hampshire primary will be scheduled for Jan. 23, eight days after the Iowa Caucus and 11 days before the South Carolina Democratic primary. The South Carolina Republicans will vote on Feb. 24, followed by the Michigan primary three days later. Super Tuesday is scheduled for March 5, 2024.

Senate

Nevada: Brown Leads in First Primary Poll — Public Opinion Strategies, polling for the Duty First Super PAC, an organization supporting candidate Sam Brown (R), released the result of their first Nevada Senate Republican primary survey (Public Opinion Strategies; Aug. 15-17; 500 likely Nevada Republican primary voters; live interview). The results find Brown, an Afghan War veteran, leading former state assemblyman and frequent candidate Jim Marchant, 33-15 percent, with five other announced candidates failing to reach even the three percent support plateau.

Brown, the 2022 US Senate candidate who raised over $4 million for his unsuccessful primary effort against former Attorney General Adam Laxalt and now has National Senate Republican Committee chairman Steve Daines’ endorsement, also leads in all segmentation divisions. Most importantly, of the respondents who are familiar with both Brown and Marchant, the former leads the latter by a strong 59-21 percent cut. The Nevada primary is scheduled for June 11, 2024. The eventual Republican nominee will challenge first-term Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) in what promises to be a hotly contested general election campaign.

House

AZ-3: Laura Pastor (D) Withdraws — Phoenix City Councilwoman Laura Pastor (D), whose late father, Ed Pastor (D), represented Phoenix in the US House for 12 terms, announced that she is withdrawing from the open seat race to replace present incumbent Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix). Ms. Pastor says her withdrawal is due to a non-life threatening health issue, but one serious enough to force her from the campaign trail.

With Congressman Gallego running for Senate, the Democratic primary will determine the 3rd District’s next Representative. At this point, four Democrats have announced for the seat including Phoenix City Councilwoman Yassamin Ansari and former state Senate Minority Leader Raquel Teran. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates AZ-3, which is wholly contained within Maricopa County, as D+44. The Arizona primary is late, scheduled for August 6, 2024, so much can happen to change the race between now and the April 8, 2024, candidate filing deadline.

GA-13: Rep. David Scott Draws Dem Primary Challenger — Veteran Georgia US Rep. David Scott (D-Atlanta) surprised many by recently announcing he would run for a 12th term. Now, he has drawn a Democratic primary challenger. East Point Utility Board chairman Mark Herring did not attack Rep. Scott in his announcement address, only saying he is running to make a “positive difference.” Others are expected to join, thus creating a multi-candidate Democratic primary.

GA-13 is another district where winning the Democratic nomination is tantamount to election. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as D+52. Rep. Scott faced three Democrats in the 2022 congressional primary, winning with 66 percent of the vote. In 2020, however, the outcome was much tighter as he avoided a runoff with just 52.9 percent, again opposite three opponents.

Debate Prep; Poll Movement

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Aug. 23, 2023

President

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Tonight: GOP Debate — The first GOP presidential forum will be held tonight in Milwaukee, and it appears the Republican National Committee’s debate requirement criteria failed to meet its principal intended goal.

The chief reasons for instituting the debate qualification menu:

  • Reaching at least one percent support in a minimum of three post-July 1st polls with 800 or more respondents
  • Having 40,000 financial donors
  • Signing a pledge to support the eventual Republican nominee …

… among other party related items, became easier to obtain than initially anticipated. The purpose of having requirements was to keep most minor candidates out, thus limiting the participants to a small number of major candidates.

At this time, it appears at least eight candidates will be on stage Wednesday night. The national leader, former President Donald Trump, is saying he won’t attend and refuses to sign the loyalty pledge that irrespectively should eliminate him. Without Trump among the participants, however, the debate will lose much of its luster, not to mention ratings for host Fox News.

The eight who apparently have earned a podium spot are:

  • Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL)
  • Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC)
  • Gov. Doug Burgum (R-ND)
  • Businessman Vivek Ramaswamy
  • Former Vice President Mike Pence
  • Ex-UN Ambassador Nikki Haley
  • Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie
  • Ex-Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson

Businessman Perry Johnson has also reportedly eclipsed the financial requirement but failed on the polling qualification.

Meeting the financial requirement became easier when Gov. Burgum, and then several others, ran an end-run around the requirement by concocting the idea of paying for $1 contributions and receiving a $20 gift card in exchange. The move was able to qualify several candidates who initially appeared incapable of pulling together such a donor portfolio within a limited time frame.

We are now seeing definitive movement in polling responses. While Trump continues to lead in all polls by substantial margins, the last five national polls have all found Ramaswamy finishing in either third or even second place in national Republican presidential polling. Simultaneously, Gov. DeSantis has lost considerable polling support.

The Fox News Poll (Aug. 11-14; 1,002 registered US voters; live interview), Quinnipiac University’s national survey (Aug. 11-14; 1,632 self-identified US registered voters; 681 Republican and Republican leaning voters; 666 Democratic and Democratic leaning primary voters; live interview), and Insider Advantage (Aug. 19-20; 750 likely US Republican primary voters; live interview) each project Ramaswamy as placing third behind Trump (Fox, 53 percent; Q-Poll, 57 percent; Insider, 51 percent) and Gov. DeSantis (Fox, 16 percent; Q-Poll, 18 percent; Insider, 10 percent).

The RMG Research and Emerson College surveys find Ramaswamy doing even better. In RMG’s latest poll (Aug. 11-14; 1,000 US registered voters; 229 likely Republican primary voters), though with a very small national GOP sample, Ramaswamy moves into second place with 13 percent compared to Gov. DeSantis’ eight percent. Trump tops the RMG poll with a whopping 60 percent support figure.

The Emerson College Poll (Aug. 16-17; 1,000 registered US voters; multiple sampling techniques), again found the self-identified Republicans favoring Trump who posted 56 percent support in this poll, while DeSantis and Ramaswamy each post 10 percent support figures. When compared to Emerson’s June national poll, Gov. DeSantis has dropped 11 percentage points and Ramaswamy has gained eight.

The polling bump that Ramaswamy demonstrates suggest that he may leave the first debate attracting even more support since he will have a more prominent podium position and, without Trump in the mix, has the opportunity to establish himself as the most talked-about candidate in the post-debate analysis. Conversely, with his stronger recent polling performance, the pressure to become a star participant tonight is significant.

Presidential Trends

By Jim Ellis — Friday, July 28, 2023

President

Are Trump and Biden locks for their respective parties?

Presidential Trends: Biden, Trump Party Nominations Look Inevitable — Heading toward August of the off-year, we are seeing clear presidential trends already developing.

President Joe Biden will be renominated. Despite Robert F. Kennedy Jr. being in the primary race and attracting some media attention, the Democratic process will almost assuredly be a non-event.

Trends are also clear for former President Donald Trump. He continues to lead in all polling and has actually gotten stronger within the party base after the series of indictments were leveled against him.

The Morning Consult data and research firm released a graph of the candidates’ progress from December of 2022 through the present. The latest result from their daily online track finds Trump now approaching 60 percent support nationally. In December, he was right at 50 support, but then generally dropped into the 40s through February but has continued to gain strength ever since.

The perennial second-place candidate, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, is now trending in the opposite direction. Beginning with 30 support national support in late December, Gov. DeSantis now finds himself languishing in the teens according to most GOP surveys.

The trajectory for most of the second-tier candidates has also been upward. Aside from Gov. DeSantis, who has fallen, and former Vice President Mike Pence and ex-UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, who have remained virtually stagnant, businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC), and North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum have all improved their standing. Ex-New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie has bolted onto the scene but appears to be running to deny Trump, and while he is moving into the middle of the pack, it is difficult to see how his support grows from the Republican Party’s relatively small “Never Trump” faction.

As we know, national polls do not deliver any delegate votes to the candidates. Those, of course, are won at the state level through public voting, so it is important to follow the state data to get a true indication of the nomination contest’s ebbs and flows.

Continue reading →

Burgum Qualifies for GOP Debate; Support for Montana Senate Candidate Wans; Democratic Competition in CA-22; Returning Candidate in FL-9

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, July 27, 2023

President

North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum (R)

Gov. Doug Burgum: Qualifies for GOP Debate — North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum’s campaign team announced that the candidate has qualified for the first Republican debate on Aug. 23 in Milwaukee. Gov. Burgum is showing an uptick in backing from both Iowa and New Hampshire and has attracted enough small dollar contributions and polling support to qualify for a podium on the debate stage.

Gov. Burgum is the seventh debate participant joining former President Donald Trump, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC), ex-UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy. Ex-Vice President Mike Pence remains the most well-known candidate who has not yet qualified.

Senate

Montana: Club for Growth Hedges on Support for Rosendale — The Club for Growth leadership several months ago said they would back US Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Glendive) to the tune of $10 million if he decided to challenge Sen. Jon Tester (D), as he did five years ago. In the 2018 election, Rosendale, then the state auditor, lost to Sen. Tester, 50-47 percent.

Now, CfG president David McIntosh, himself a former Republican congressman, is hedging on such a support level, saying that retired Navy SEAL and aerospace company CEO Tim Sheehy is an impressive candidate and Rep. Rosendale is needed in the House. Rosendale has long been a presumed Senate candidate but has yet to come forward and formally announce his political plans.

House

CA-22: Democratic Competition — In November, Golden State Rep. David Valadao (R-Hanford) defeated then-state Assemblyman Rudy Salas (D), 51.5 – 48.5 percent, in a district the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as D+10. Salas, who many regard as the congressman’s most difficult opponent from the group of candidates he faced during his five victorious federal campaigns, has already announced that he is returning for a rematch. Now, however, further competition looms on the horizon. State Sen. Melissa Hurtado (D-Sanger/Bakersfield) is reportedly preparing to announce for Congress and will enter the March 5, 2024, all-party jungle primary.

While Hurtado’s Senate district covers just over 96 percent of the 22nd Congressional District, she was only re-elected in November by just a 22-vote margin from more than 138,000 ballots cast. Therefore, it appears that Salas should still be favored to advance into the general election against Rep. Valadao.

FL-9: Republican to Try Again — Former state Rep. John Quinones (R), who ran for the 9th District seat in 2012 but lost soundly (63-37 percent) to then-Rep. Alan Grayson (D), is returning to run again in 2024, this time hoping to challenge incumbent Rep. Darren Soto (D-Kissimmee). The 9th District, which contains the south Orlando area, was the most over-populated of the 27 Florida congressional districts prior to reapportionment and redistricting. It has 30 percent different territory from when Quinones ran the first time.

Rep. Soto was re-elected to a fourth term in November with a 54-46 percent margin, which was much lower than expected against an opponent who spent less than $600,000. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates FL-9 at a substantial D+16, with a partisan lean calculation from Dave’s Redistricting App of 58.8D – 39.2R.

Poll Shows Presidential Race Tightening; Ohio Senate Race Still a Toss-Up; Big Lead for Mondaire Jones; Gov. Sununu Declines to Run Again

By Jim Ellis — Friday, July 21, 2023

President

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R)

New Hampshire: UNH Poll Shows GOP Race Tightening — A University of New Hampshire Granite State Poll was released during the week (July 13-17; 2,208 registered New Hampshire voters; 898 likely Republican primary voters; 743 likely Democratic primary voters; online), and it shows a tightening of the Republican presidential contest. According to this data, former President Donald Trump’s lead over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has dropped to 37-23 percent. The second tier has also moved up. South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, ex-New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, businessman Vivek Ramaswamy and ex-UN Ambassador Nikki Haley all posted between eight and five percent support.

On the Democratic side, 65 percent of President Joe Biden’s voters say they will vote for him as a write-in if he doesn’t participate in the New Hampshire primary. This would likely be enough for him to beat Robert F. Kennedy Jr, even without the president’s name on the ballot. New Hampshire is not likely to agree with the new Democratic National Committee primary schedule, so Biden may not participate.

Senate

Ohio: New Poll Continues to Show Toss-Up Race — Suffolk University, polling for USA Today (July 9-12; 500 Ohio mostly likely voters; live interview), finds Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) in a dead heat match with newly announced US Senate candidate Frank LaRose (R), Ohio’s Secretary of State. According to the results, the two candidates would each attract 45 percent of the vote. If state Sen. Matt Dolan (R-Chagrin Falls) were the Republican nominee, Sen. Brown would lead 46-43 percent. Should businessman Bernie Moreno win the GOP primary, Sen. Brown’s margin against him in a general election pairing would be 48-41 percent.

The poll tested the Republican primary, but the sample cell is too low (190) to make a definitive judgment. The basic results give LaRose just a 19-14-9 percent edge over Sen. Dolan and Moreno, respectively. A majority of 56 percent, however, said they were undecided. Ohio will be one of the top Senate races in the 2024 general election.

House

NY-17: Ex-Rep Opens with Big Dem Primary Lead — Former US Rep. Mondaire Jones (D), in a comeback attempt in his former Rockland/Westchester County district after losing re-election last year in New York City, released a survey of Democratic voters. The results of the Public Policy Polling study (July 14-15; 570 likely NY-17 Democratic primary voters) gives Jones a strong 43-8 percent ballot test advantage over local school board member Liz Gereghty, who is also the sister of Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D). The Democratic primary winner will face freshman Rep. Mike Lawler (R-Pearl River) in what promises to be a tight general election.

Governor

New Hampshire: Gov. Sununu Won’t Run Again — As expected, four-term Granite State Gov. Chris Sununu (R) announced Wednesday that he will retire when his term ends at the end of next year. Gov. Sununu is only the second chief executive in state history to serve four two-year terms. The other was Democratic Gov. John Lynch, who was in office from 2005 to the beginning of 2013.

Gov. Sununu was first elected in a close 2016 election, but then recorded three successive victories with substantial margins. He briefly considered entering the 2024 presidential campaign before deciding against launching a national effort.

Immediately, former state Senate President Chuck Morse (R), who actually served two days as governor when then-Gov. Maggie Hassan (D) resigned early to be sworn into the Senate, confirmed that he will run. Morse last ran for the Senate in 2022 but suffered a one-point loss in the Republican primary. Ex-US Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R) is also a potential gubernatorial candidate. Previously announced Democratic gubernatorial candidates are Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig and Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington. Expect this open governor’s race to yield a hard fought toss-up campaign.

Projected GOP Presidential Debate Qualifiers; New Senate Candidate in Ohio; Q2 Senate Financials Reported; A Strong CA-9 Candidate Emerges; Indiana Open Gov. Race News

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, July 19, 2023

President

Debate: Projected Qualifiers — USA Today is projecting that six GOP presidential contenders will qualify for the Aug. 23 debate to be aired on FOX News, while another half-dozen may miss the cut. The candidates meeting the polling and donor requirements are, as expected, former President Donald Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. The others are ex-UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, Sen. Tim Scott, and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie.

Those on the cusp of failing to meet the participation requirements are former Vice President Mike Pence, ex-Congressman Will Hurd, Gov. Doug Burgum (R-ND), ex-Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, Miami Mayor Francis Suarez, and commentator Larry Elder.

Senate

Ohio: Sec of State Announces for Senate — As has been long expected, a third major Republican has joined the US Senate primary hoping to advance into the general election to oppose incumbent Sen. Sherrod Brown (D). Frank LaRose was first elected as Ohio’s Secretary of State in 2018 after serving two terms in the Ohio state Senate from the Akron area. He averaged 55 percent of the vote in his two victorious statewide campaigns.

LaRose is the only one of the three GOP candidates – the others being state Sen. Matt Dolan (R-Chagrin Falls) and businessman Bernie Moreno – who has won a statewide race. Sen. Dolan ran for the US Senate in 2022 but lost the Republican primary. Moreno was also in that Senate race but withdrew before voting began seeing no reasonable victory path.

While LaRose is the only statewide official in the race, he begins well behind in the money race. Sen. Dolan has already invested $4 million into his campaign. Moreno reports raising $2.26 million in the 2nd Quarter.

The general election will be difficult since Sen. Brown is a three-term incumbent. The state, however, is significantly more Republican than when the senator last ran in 2018. The ’24 contest is becoming a must-win for the GOP if the party is to capture the Senate majority in the coming election.

Senate Finance: Q2 Dollar Numbers Reported — The 2nd Quarter fundraising numbers have been released, and the 58 reporting Senate candidates in the 34 races attracted a cumulative $91.7 million and have more than $228 million in their campaign accounts. This does not count any money that Super PACs have raised or plan to spend to affect the outcome of the 2024 US Senate electoral contests.

Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas) was technically first in funds raised with $8.63 million, but $2.5 million of that total was transferred from his House committee. Rep. Allred’s potential general election opponent, Sen. Ted Cruz (R), ranked sixth overall but first among Republicans. He attracted $3.35 million in financial support.

California Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank) was the net Q2 fundraising leader, bringing in $8.17 million without any transfers from his House account. He also led the all-important cash-on-hand category with a whopping $29.8 million ready to spend on his Senate campaign. The total amounts raised during this early campaign phase suggest that we can expect another hotly contested campaign season next year.

House

CA-9: Republicans Gain Strong Candidate — Stockton Mayor Kevin Lincoln, a Republican elected in a heavily Democratic city, is reportedly preparing an announcement for Thursday indicating he will forego running for a second term in his present position in order to challenge Rep. Josh Harder (D-Turlock) for the US House seat. Rep. Harder was severely redistricted in the 2021 redraw, but still managed to record a 55-45 percent victory over San Joaquin County Supervisor Tom Patti (R). The congressman had a huge 6:1 advantage in resources, which became a key factor in his re-election victory.

The CA-9 district could be one to watch nationally. Republicans must defeat several sitting Democratic incumbents if they are to hold their small House majority and this northern California seat, that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as D+8, could be on the cusp of becoming a top-tier conversion target.

Governor

Indiana: Newcomer May Enter Open Gov Race — Indiana Secretary of Commerce Brad Chambers (R) announced he will be resigning his position and it is anticipated that he will quickly declare his gubernatorial candidacy.

Though starting well behind the open race’s two front runners for the Republican nomination and the general election, US Sen. Mike Braun and Lt. Gov. Suzanne Crouch, Chambers, who has the financial ability to self-fund his campaign, may soon become the fourth credible candidate in the field. Venture capitalist Eric Doden also has the ability to attract enough resources to propel his candidacy. Incumbent Gov. Eric Holcomb (R) is ineligible to seek a third term. Sen. Braun is foregoing a second term in the Senate to enter the gubernatorial campaign.

An Unusual DeSantis Trend;
A Returning MD-6 Candidate;
A Big Lead for Dem Candidate in Oregon; Trouble in UT-2

By Jim Ellis — Friday, June 30, 2023

President

Wisconsin Poll: DeSantis Pulls Within One of Trump — A new Marquette University Law School regular Wisconsin poll finds an unusual trend developing. In this survey (June 8-13; 913 registered Wisconsin voters; 419 self-identified Republicans; live interview), Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has pulled to within one point of former President Donald Trump, 31-30 percent in terms of first choice preference, a margin not seen in any other state with the exception of the governor’s home domain. Former Vice President Mike Pence and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott are third and fourth with six and five percent support.

In a general election pairing with President Joe Biden, Gov. DeSantis pulls to within the polling margin of error, trailing 47-45 percent. Ex-President Trump fares considerably worse. Biden would lead this match-up by a substantial 52-43 percent margin. It remains to be seen if the closeness of this poll is an anomaly, or the beginning of a new trend.

House

Maryland Ex-Delegate Neil Parrott

MD-6: Ex-Delegate Parrott to Return — Former state Delegate Neil Parrott (R), who twice lost to Rep. David Trone (D-Potomac), announced earlier in the week that he will return for a third congressional run. Rep. Trone has already declared for the state’s open Senate race, meaning the politically marginal western Maryland 6th Congressional District is also open. Post-redistricting, the 6th became more competitive, so Parrott’s 55-45 percent loss to Rep. Trone was an under-performance.

In 2024, however, the former congressional nominee will face at least four other Republicans, including a fellow ex-Delegate, Brenda Thiam. Five Democrats have announced for the seat, including two sitting Montgomery County state Delegates, Joe Vogel and Lesley Lopez. In the general election, this seat could evolve into a toss-up race.

OR-5: 2022 Nominee Posting Big Dem Primary Lead — Freshman Oregon Republican Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-Happy Valley) scored one of the biggest upset victories of the 2022 election cycle when she defeated Democratic nominee Jamie McLeod-Skinner (D) to capture the 5th District seat with a 51-49 percent margin. McLeod-Skinner had unseated then-US Rep. Kurt Schrader in the May Democratic primary.

In a politically marginal district that the FiveThirtyEight organization rates D+2, three credible individuals have already declared their candidacies, state Rep. Janelle Bynum (D-Happy Valley), Oregon Metro Council President Lynn Peterson, and former congressional aide Kevin Easton. McLeod-Skinner confirms she is “seriously considering” running again, and now is releasing an early June poll that posts her to a big lead in a hypothetical Democratic primary among the four early contenders.

According to the GBAO Strategies’ poll (May 30-June 1; 400 likely Democratic OR-5 primary voters), McLeod-Skinner would lead Bynum, Peterson, and Easton, 50-9-5-4 percent. No numbers were released for how any of these Democratic candidates would pair with Rep. Chavez-DeRemer. In any event, we can expect another close general election race here in 2024.

UT-2: Trouble Brewing — A story is running in the Salt Lake Tribune newspaper that special Republican Party convention winner Celeste Maloy, legal counsel to resigning Rep. Chris Stewart (R-Farmington), may not have met the legal requirements to become a candidate. During her time in Rep. Stewart’s DC office, she did not vote in Utah, thus was placed on the inactive voter list. She re-registered in Utah after the special election candidate filing deadline. During her time living in Virginia, she registered to vote and cast ballots in Old Dominion elections.

Republican Party officials say there is no requirement to be a qualified voter to compete in the special election, but state law appears to say something quite different. Some of the Republican candidates who failed to win the recent party convention may file a lawsuit to overturn the results.

At this point, it appears that two candidates, former state Rep. Becky Edwards and ex-Republican National Committeeman Bruce Hough, may meet the petition signature requirement to enter the special election primary that is scheduled for Sept. 5. The special general is calendared for Nov. 21. Rep. Stewart will resign his seat on Sept. 15.