Tag Archives: Sen. Kirsten Engel

Sen. Scott Forms Exploratory Committee; Sen. Baldwin to Seek Third Term; Re-Match Brewing in AZ, NY; Ex-Rep. Rouda Injured in Fall

By Jim Ellis — Friday, April 14, 2023

President

South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott (R)

Sen. Tim Scott: Exploratory Committee Formed — South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott (R) announced the formation of a presidential exploratory committee, which is likely his first official step toward becoming a national candidate. It’s hard to see a Republican nomination victory path for the senator, however. South Carolina is obviously the heart of his support base, but with the state’s former governor, Nikki Haley, already in the race, even that is diminished.

Should Sen. Scott advance into official candidacy, it is likely that former President Donald Trump will be the chief beneficiary. The more crowded the candidate field, the more favorable to Trump.

Senate

Wisconsin: Sen. Tammy Baldwin to Seek Third Term — As expected, Badger State Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) announced this week that she will seek a third term next year. Baldwin was first elected to the Senate in 2012 but has been in elected public office consecutively since 1985. Prior to winning her current position, Baldwin served in the US House, the Wisconsin state assembly, the Dane County Board of Supervisors, and the Madison Common Council.

No Republican has formally come forward, but several individuals are considering the race. Unless the congressional map is redrawn, it is doubtful any member of the US House delegation will run. Former Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch is a potential candidate as is businessman Scott Mayer. While Sen. Baldwin will be favored for re-election, the 2024 Senate race could well become highly competitive.

House

AZ-6: Re-Match Brewing — We are seeing several re-matches take place in 2024 US House races, and one in Arizona became official yesterday. Last November, Republican Juan Ciscomani (R-Tucson) defeated then-state Sen. Kirsten Engel (D) by a 50.7 – 49.2 percent count, a margin of 5,232 votes. Now, Engel returns for a second chance.

Arizona’s 6th District sits in the southeast corner of the state and contains approximately half of the city of Tucson. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates it as R+7, but Dave’s Redistricting App sees a closer 50.9R – 47.1D partisan lean. Count on another close finish in this desert congressional district.

CA-47: Ex-Rep. Harley Rouda Forced Out — Former Rep. Harley Rouda (D), who held the former 48th Congressional District for one term, had announced a comeback attempt for next year’s political contest in new District 47. Unfortunately, Rouda was involved in a falling accident in which he sustained head injuries. On the advice of his physicians, Rouda says that he will now not pursue his 2024 candidacy and instead concentrate on returning to full health status.

This development means we will now almost assuredly see an open-seat contest between state Sen. David Min (D-Irvine) and 2022 congressional nominee and ex-state Assemblyman Scott Baugh (R). In the previous election, Baugh lost to incumbent Rep. Katie Porter (D-Irvine) by a 51.7 – 48.3 percent split. Rep. Porter is leaving the House to run for the US Senate.

NY-19: Another Re-Match Brewing — Continuing with re-matches, attorney Josh Riley (D), who lost 49.9 – 48.4 percent to now-freshman Rep. Marc Molinaro (R-Red Hook), announced that he, too, will return for another campaign in 2024.

The Upstate 19th District, anchored in Ulster and Dutchess Counties, is rated as R+1 from the FiveThirtyEight data organization, while Dave’s Redistricting App sees the partisan lean as a much different 52.0D – 44.6R. Democrats are already committed to targeting the Hudson Valley seats, so expect this race to transform into a national congressional campaign.

Today’s Primaries; Final Results Close to Complete in Ariz.; Herrera Beutler Hanging By a Thread in Washington

By Jim Ellis — August 9, 2022

Primaries

Voting Today: Four States Holding Primaries; One Special Election — The final phase of primary season continues today with nomination elections occurring in Connecticut, Minnesota, Vermont and Wisconsin. The most competitive statewide races include choosing Senate candidates in Connecticut and governor’s contests in Minnesota and Wisconsin.

A total of 22 House races are on the cumulative political card tonight, including three open seats, one each in Minnesota, Vermont, and Wisconsin, and a special election to replace the late Rep. Jim Hagedorn (R) in southern Minnesota. With a victory tonight, either former state Rep. Brad Finstad (R) or ex-Hormel corporation CEO Jeffrey Ettinger (D) will take the seat immediately upon election certification and serve the balance of Hagedorn’s final term.

Primary Results

Former news anchor Kari Lake (R)

Arizona: Final Results Close to Complete — In states that feature large numbers of mail ballots and allow such votes to count even when arriving after election day, the better part of two weeks is needed to finalize the election totals. From Arizona’s Aug. 2 primary, the winners of all races are now statistically projected as the last remaining votes are being tabulated. The latest published figures show 98 percent of the Republican ballots and 92 percent of the Democratic votes recorded. Republican turnout looks to top 815,000, while Democrats are likely to exceed 625,000.

In the general election, Sen. Mark Kelly (D) will face venture capitalist Blake Masters (R), while Secretary of State Katie Hobbs (D) and former news anchor Kari Lake (R) square off in the open governor’s race.

The key House races feature Rep. David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills) against businessman Jevin Hodge (D); retired Navy SEAL Eli Crane (R) challenging Rep. Tom O’Halleran (D-Sedona); Rep. Greg Stanton (D-Phoenix) in a competitive contest against business owner Kelly Cooper, who upset favored Tanya Wheeless in the 4th District Republican primary; and former state Sen. Kirsten Engel (D) and ex-Hispanic Chamber of Commerce executive Juan Ciscomani (R) doing battle in the Tucson-anchored open new 6th District.

Washington: Rep. Herrera Beutler Hanging By a Thread — Washington’s laborious vote counting procedure continues from the Aug. 2 all-mail jungle primary, and the biggest development is that Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler (R-Battle Ground) has not yet secured a general election ballot slot, and may in fact lose to challenger Joe Kent (R).

With just under 96 percent of the 3rd District votes counted, Democrat Marie Perez, with 31.2 percent of the vote, has clinched the first ballot position. Rep. Herrera Beutler barely holds the second qualifying position with 22.6 percent (41,603 votes) nipping Kent’s 22.5 percent (41,346 votes), a margin of just 257 votes with as many as 7,000 votes remaining to be counted. Since 45.1 percent of the voters chose either Herrera Beutler or Kent, it is reasonable to believe approximately 3,000 of those votes will determine the second-place qualifier. Of the remaining votes for either Herrera Beutler or Kemp, the latter man would need 54 to overcome the congresswoman’s edge.

In the 4th District, Rep. Dan Newhouse (R-Sunnyside) who, like Rep. Herrera Beutler, voted to impeach former President Trump, has clinched a general election ballot position with 25.4 percent, but with as many as 25,000 votes to count. In second place, also clinching a general election slot, is Democratic businessman Doug White. Eliminated in third place is Trump-endorsed former town police chief and 2020 gubernatorial finalist Loren Culp (R).

Turning to the 8th District, 2020 Attorney General qualifier Matt Larkin (R) has clinched second position over King County Councilman Reagan Dunn and 2020 general election qualifier Jesse Jensen. Larkin now advances to the 2022 general election to challenge Rep. Kim Schrier (D-Sammamish). This is evolving into a top competitive national congressional campaign. Schrier only secured 47.9 percent in the jungle primary, and the cumulative partisan totals suggest that a very tight general election is coming. The cumulative Democratic vote so far totals 97,341 with 91.3 percent of the expected vote tabulated compared to the cumulative Republican total of 96,572.

House

MN-1: Finstad Leading in Final Special Election Poll — The closing poll in the special election to replace the late Rep. Jim Hagedorn (R) was released late last week. The Survey USA poll (July 26-30; 544 likely MN-1 special election voters; live interview) finds Republican former state Rep. Brad Finstad leading ex-Hormel corporation CEO Jeff Ettinger (D) by a 46-38 percent margin. Finstad also faces a regular election primary contest with former state Rep. Jeremy Munson whom the former defeated in the May 24 special primary election by just 427 votes.

MN-5: Rep. Omar Facing Serious Primary Challenge — Former Minneapolis City Councilman Don Samuels is waging a strong Democratic primary challenge against controversial Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minneapolis) in an election that will be decided today. The Minneapolis Star-Tribune announced its editorial board endorsement of Samuels and so did the city’s mayor, Jacob Frey (D). In the last week, a Super PAC entitled “Make A Difference” sponsored a $350,000 television buy to support Samuels. This will be a race to watch tonight.

NY-12: Rep. Nadler Leads in New Poll — Emerson College tested the upcoming Democratic-paired incumbent primary between Reps. Carolyn Maloney (D-Manhattan) and Jerrold Nadler (D-Manhattan). The survey (Aug. 1-2; 1,000 likely NY-12 Democratic primary voters; live interview, text & interactive voice response system) finds Rep. Nadler, largely with the overwhelming support of men, leading Rep. Maloney 40-31 percent, with the third candidate, businessman and former congressional candidate Suraj Patel attracting 11 percent support. The New York congressional primary is scheduled for Aug. 23.