Tag Archives: Josh Riley

Sen. Scott Forms Exploratory Committee; Sen. Baldwin to Seek Third Term; Re-Match Brewing in AZ, NY; Ex-Rep. Rouda Injured in Fall

By Jim Ellis — Friday, April 14, 2023

President

South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott (R)

Sen. Tim Scott: Exploratory Committee Formed — South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott (R) announced the formation of a presidential exploratory committee, which is likely his first official step toward becoming a national candidate. It’s hard to see a Republican nomination victory path for the senator, however. South Carolina is obviously the heart of his support base, but with the state’s former governor, Nikki Haley, already in the race, even that is diminished.

Should Sen. Scott advance into official candidacy, it is likely that former President Donald Trump will be the chief beneficiary. The more crowded the candidate field, the more favorable to Trump.

Senate

Wisconsin: Sen. Tammy Baldwin to Seek Third Term — As expected, Badger State Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) announced this week that she will seek a third term next year. Baldwin was first elected to the Senate in 2012 but has been in elected public office consecutively since 1985. Prior to winning her current position, Baldwin served in the US House, the Wisconsin state assembly, the Dane County Board of Supervisors, and the Madison Common Council.

No Republican has formally come forward, but several individuals are considering the race. Unless the congressional map is redrawn, it is doubtful any member of the US House delegation will run. Former Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch is a potential candidate as is businessman Scott Mayer. While Sen. Baldwin will be favored for re-election, the 2024 Senate race could well become highly competitive.

House

AZ-6: Re-Match Brewing — We are seeing several re-matches take place in 2024 US House races, and one in Arizona became official yesterday. Last November, Republican Juan Ciscomani (R-Tucson) defeated then-state Sen. Kirsten Engel (D) by a 50.7 – 49.2 percent count, a margin of 5,232 votes. Now, Engel returns for a second chance.

Arizona’s 6th District sits in the southeast corner of the state and contains approximately half of the city of Tucson. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates it as R+7, but Dave’s Redistricting App sees a closer 50.9R – 47.1D partisan lean. Count on another close finish in this desert congressional district.

CA-47: Ex-Rep. Harley Rouda Forced Out — Former Rep. Harley Rouda (D), who held the former 48th Congressional District for one term, had announced a comeback attempt for next year’s political contest in new District 47. Unfortunately, Rouda was involved in a falling accident in which he sustained head injuries. On the advice of his physicians, Rouda says that he will now not pursue his 2024 candidacy and instead concentrate on returning to full health status.

This development means we will now almost assuredly see an open-seat contest between state Sen. David Min (D-Irvine) and 2022 congressional nominee and ex-state Assemblyman Scott Baugh (R). In the previous election, Baugh lost to incumbent Rep. Katie Porter (D-Irvine) by a 51.7 – 48.3 percent split. Rep. Porter is leaving the House to run for the US Senate.

NY-19: Another Re-Match Brewing — Continuing with re-matches, attorney Josh Riley (D), who lost 49.9 – 48.4 percent to now-freshman Rep. Marc Molinaro (R-Red Hook), announced that he, too, will return for another campaign in 2024.

The Upstate 19th District, anchored in Ulster and Dutchess Counties, is rated as R+1 from the FiveThirtyEight data organization, while Dave’s Redistricting App sees the partisan lean as a much different 52.0D – 44.6R. Democrats are already committed to targeting the Hudson Valley seats, so expect this race to transform into a national congressional campaign.

Surprising New Poll in NY-19;
Chabot Falls Behind in OH-1;
Okla. Gov. Stitt Faces Strong Opposition; Race Stabilizing in Texas Gubernatorial Battle

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Sept. 28, 2022

House

Dutchess County (NY) Executive Marc Molinaro (R)

NY-19: Surprising New Poll — In August, Democrat Pat Ryan (D) won the 19th District special election against Dutchess County Executive Marc Molinaro (R). Democratic strategists were claiming the result was an upset and a precursor of good things to come for their party in the 2022 general election. In actuality, President Biden carried the district by two percentage points in 2020 and the Democrats won the previous two congressional elections, so declaring a Democratic victory in such a seat as an upset is a bit of a stretch.

The new 19th District, which has some additional territory stretching along the Pennsylvania border, is actually more Democratic (D+4) than the special election seat that Molinaro lost. Since Rep. Ryan decided to seek re-election in the 18th District, Molinaro has a new opponent in attorney Josh Riley (D). Despite his loss, a new Triton Polling & Research survey (Sept. 20-22; 658 likely NY-19 general election voters; interactive voice response system) posts Molinaro to a surprisingly large 51-42 percent majority. The GOP nominee winning this seat would be a huge step toward Republicans claiming the House majority with a substantial margin.

OH-1: Rep. Chabot Falls Behind — The court-drawn Ohio congressional map was not kind to veteran Rep. Steve Chabot (R-Cincinnati). The new 1st District now leans toward the Democrats with a three-point margin. The latest Impact Research internal poll for the Greg Landsman campaign (Sept. 17-21; 506 likely OH-1 general election voters; live interview & text) gives the Democratic challenger a predicted 49-46 percent lead over the congressman.

Chabot was first elected in 1994, but lost the seat in 2008. He regained it in the 2010 election, and has been re-elected in the past five consecutive elections against formidable opponents. Winning this race is critical to Republican majority prospects.

Governor

Oklahoma: Gov. Stitt Facing Strong Opposition — At the beginning of September, the media sponsored Sooner Poll sounded the alarm bell for Gov. Kevin Stitt (R) by publishing their poll giving the incumbent only a one-point lead over Democratic Superintendent of Public Instruction Joy Hofmeister (D). Since the polling sample was small (402 respondents statewide), only minimal attention was paid to the results. However, an Amber Integrated survey was released Tuesday (Sept. 19-21; 500 likely Oklahoma general election voters; live interview & online) that found the governor leading Hofmeister with a similar 47-44 percent margin.

With two polls showing the same basic result, we can expect the Stitt campaign to unleash a major advertising blitz to strengthen his areas of weakness within the traditional Republican voter base.

Texas: Race Stabilizing — Another Texas gubernatorial survey was released in the Lone Star State, and it again shows Gov. Greg Abbott (R) maintaining a significant but not particularly large lead over former US representative and short-term 2020 presidential candidate Beto O’Rourke (D). The Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation conducted a survey of the state electorate (Sept. 6-15; 1,172 likely Texas general election voters; online) and found Gov. Abbott leading well beyond the polling margin of error in this study, 51-44 percent.

Since Sept. 6, four Texas gubernatorial surveys have been commissioned from four different polling entities and they post Gov. Abbott to an advantage between five and nine percentage points. Expect this trend to continue until the final two weeks of the campaign. At that time, we will likely see the governor pull away from O’Rourke and record his traditional 10-plus point victory margin as he has in his first two terms.