Tag Archives: Rep. Lauren Boebert

McCarthy’s Win Even Closer

By Jim Ellis — Jan. 9, 2023

House

Colorado Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Silt)

Speaker: A Dive Into the Numbers — The internal US House voting process that elected California’s Kevin McCarthy as Speaker Friday night on the 15th roll call was arguably even closer than the final 216-212-6 tally suggested.

The two closest congressional elections, those of Reps. Lauren Boebert (R-CO) and John Duarte (R-CA), both would have affected the Speaker race outcome had the pair not won their tight November electoral contests.

Though Boebert supported other members on the first 13 roll calls, her “present” vote on the last two helped make the difference in McCarthy’s marathon campaign for the Speakership. Rep. Boebert won her western Colorado re-election campaign with only a 546-vote margin. Duarte was victorious with a similar 564 vote spread in central California. Combined, the aggregate 1,110 vote victories ultimately provided what McCarthy needed to finally reach majority support.

In all, 25 November US House races were decided by less than 10,000 votes apiece. Of those, Republicans won 15 and Democrats 10. In 15 of these 25 elections, we saw the winning candidate flip the district from the previous party’s representation to his or her own.

It is likely that most, if not all, of these 25 closest 2022 contests will become targeted races in the 2024 election cycle. Throughout the long election cycle, we will be paying particular attention to the 10 districts where the electorate voted opposite of the prognosticators’ pre-election calculation.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization, for example, rated all 435 House districts using past election trends, voter registration, and other statistics to formulate a point spread favoring a nominee of one party or the other.

The following 10 members over-performed their party’s projection and won a close contest in a seat that was expected to favor the opposite party’s nominee:

Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-WA-3; R+11)
Rep. David Valadao (R-CA; D+10)
Rep. Anthony D’Esposito (R-NY; D+10)
Rep. John Duarte (R-CA-13; D+7)
Rep. Mike Lawler (R-NY-17; D+7)
Rep. Susan Wild (D-PA; R+4)
Rep. Yadira Caraveo (D-CO-8; R+3)
Rep. Wiley Nickel (D-NC; R+3)
Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-OR; D+3)
Rep. Brandon Williams (R-NY; D+2)

Redistricting may very well be back on the table for the 2024 congressional cycle, however. Irrespective of the US Supreme Court deciding the Alabama racial gerrymandering and the North Carolina partisan gerrymandering and legal jurisdiction cases before the end of June, we can expect redraws occurring in certain states.

The legislatures will likely redraw interim court-mandated maps in New York, North Carolina, and Ohio. Based upon a recent federal three-judge court ruling, South Carolina has been ordered to produce a new congressional map by March 31. The impending SCOTUS rulings could force Alabama, Illinois, Louisiana, and North Carolina (if not already done so by the time the high court rules) to change their maps.

The redraws would potentially help Republicans in Illinois and North Carolina, and Democrats in Alabama, Louisiana, New York, and South Carolina. The Ohio situation is unclear, at least for now.

With impending map changes coming in the aforementioned states, and possibly several more depending upon just how far-reaching the future SCOTUS decisions prove, we could again see a large number of seats falling into the competitive realm. This, in addition to the aforementioned 25 close likely targets from the previous election cycle.

Those members are listed in their entirety below:

DeSantis’ Big Lead Suspect; Recount Confirms Rep. Boebert’s Victory;
A Rapid-Fire Special Primary; Lightfoot Looking Shaky in Chicago

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Dec. 15, 2022

President

Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL)

USA Today Poll: DeSantis’ Big Lead Suspect — Suffolk University, polling for USA Today (Dec. 7-11; 1,000 registered US voters; 374 likely Republican primary voters; live interview) finds Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) leading both President Biden and former President Donald Trump in their latest published survey.

The general election data that finds DeSantis leading President Biden, 47-43 percent, is the more legitimate number. The Republican primary result, which tested only 374 individuals nationally and shows DeSantis holding a huge 56-33 percent advantage over Trump, should be discarded because it is not statistically sound.

The Morning Consult organization also released a survey, this with a much greater sample size (Dec. 9-11; 4,215 self-identified Republican voters; online) and arrived at an opposite conclusion vis-à-vis the hypothetical Republican nomination battle. Including many candidates, Morning Consult finds Trump holding a 49-31 percent lead over Gov. DeSantis, with former Vice-President Mike Pence recording eight percent. All other candidates posted a preference factor of two percent or less.

House

CO-3: Recount Confirms Rep. Boebert’s Victory — The mandatory recount in Colorado’s 3rd District is complete, and the final tally confirms Rep. Lauren Boebert’s (R-Silt) close victory over former Aspen City Councilman Adam Frisch (D). The recount changed only four votes to the original tally, thus making Rep. Boebert’s margin of victory 546 votes. Frisch had conceded the election weeks ago, but Colorado election law mandated the recount because the two candidates were separated by less than half a percentage point. The Democratic nominee says he is open to seeking a re-match in 2024.

VA-4: Dems Schedule Rapid-Fire Special Primary — Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) calling a Feb. 21 special congressional election to replace the late Rep. Donald McEachin (D-Richmond) has spurred the local 4th District Democratic committee to call a very quick “firehouse primary.” A Virginia “firehouse primary” is a term given to a primary election that has very few polling places. Gov. Youngkin’s order set Dec. 23 as the deadline for choosing party nominees.

The Democratic nomination battle, which will likely determine the next congressional member, is now scheduled for Dec. 20, giving the candidates only a week to campaign. The leading contenders are state Sens. Jennifer McClellan (D-Richmond), Joseph Morrissey (D-Richmond), and Delegate Lamont Baxby (D-Richmond). Republicans have yet to determine their nomination process.

Cities

Chicago: Rep. Garcia Leads Mayor’s Race in Union Poll — Though the poll is just about a month old, the International Union of Operating Engineers Local 150 just released their Impact Research study of the impending Chicago mayor’s race. The survey (Nov. 10-17; 700 likely Chicago local election voters; live interview and text) found US Rep. Jesus “Chuy” Garcia (D-Chicago) leading Mayor Lori Lightfoot 25-18 percent within a field of nine candidates. The data suggests the two would advance to an April 4 runoff election from the non-partisan Feb. 28 election.

In the hypothetical runoff, Rep. Garcia would lead Mayor Lightfoot by a whopping 55-25 percent margin. The controversial mayor posts very poor job approval ratings, with 68 percent disapproving of her performance in office. She received positive ratings only from the black community, and even there registered just a 50 percent favorable score. A total of 84 percent of white voters and 72 percent of Hispanics disapprove of how she has handled her mayoral duties.

Sen. Sinema Officially Becomes an Independent; Rep. Khanna Considers Senate Race; Automatic Recount Beginning in Rep. Boebert’s CO-3

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Dec. 12, 2022

Senate

Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ)

Arizona: Sen. Sinema Officially Becomes an Independent — Sen. Kyrsten Sinema on Friday announced that she is leaving the party and will represent Arizona as an Independent. As her standing before the Democratic Party electorate is poor, this move seems to clearly indicate that she is preparing for a re-election campaign. According to job approval ratings that were taken from polls conducted well before the November election, Sen. Sinema’s numbers had dropped to the point where she would be a severe underdog in a Democratic primary against her likely intra-party opponent, US Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix). In a three-way race against Gallego and a Republican nominee, however, her re-election chances significantly improve.

Little will change in terms of her voting record, but the campaign strategy completely transforms for all involved. Not having to worry about re-nomination, Sen. Sinema will advance directly into the general election assuming she can obtain valid registered voter petition signatures from 45,000 Arizonans. She can begin signature gathering right away, so even this large number should be attainable over such a long duration.

Rep. Gallego, who had been rumored as a Sinema Democratic primary challenger, continues to move forward with his Senate plans. While admittedly convening a Senate planning group, the congressman says he will not formally decide about running until after the first of the year. Republican Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb also confirms he is considering entering the Senate GOP primary.

Regardless of who decides to run, the 2024 Arizona Senate race will be another contest attracting huge national attention. Sen. Sinema’s move to the Independent ballot line certainly increases her chances of winning, but she is certainly no lock to claim a second term in the next election.

California: Rep. Khanna Considers Senate Race — California Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Fremont), who was just elected to a fourth term in the House, said over the weekend that he would consider running for the Senate in 2024 if incumbent Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D), who will be 91 years of age at the time of the next election, decides to retire as expected.

Rep. Khanna further said he would more than likely seek re-election in 2024, but the door is clearly open to him exploring a senatorial run in what is expected to be a crowded Democratic battle should the seat open. The congressman has been a strong fundraiser, averaging a total receipts figure of over $4 million per election cycle for his four successful congressional campaigns along with $5-plus million remaining in his federal account, so he would have the financial base to begin a statewide run.

House

CO-3: Automatic Recount Beginning — The recount for the close CO-3 congressional race featuring Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Silt) and Democratic former Aspen City Councilman Adam Frisch is close to completion in the district that covers Colorado’s Western Slope region. Though Frisch has already conceded the race to Rep. Boebert, the recount is taking place under the state’s election law that mandates a re-tabulation for any contest that falls within a margin of just one-half a percent.

Though Rep. Boebert’s 548-vote lead from 327,124 ballots cast is expected to stand, the 27 involved counties that comprise the 3rd District must continue the recount. Frisch says he is likely to run again in 2024. The recount process must be completed by tomorrow so the election certification process can be completed.

VA-4: Special Election Candidates Beginning to Come Forward — While Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) has yet to call a special congressional election to replace the late Rep. Donald McEachin (D-Richmond) who passed away in late November, several individuals have come forward to announce their candidacies.

The first is state Delegate Lamont Bagby (D-Richmond), who has been a long-time supporter and confidant of Rep. McEachin’s. State Sen. Jennifer McCellan (D-Richmond), who placed third in the 2021 Democratic gubernatorial primary, also says she will enter the special congressional election. Before winning her state Senate seat in 2017, McClellan served six terms in the state House of Delegates.

For the Republicans, who have little chance in a 4th District that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as D+30, their two-time nominee and Christian pastor Leon Benjamin says he will enter the special election field.

Virginia’s 4th Congressional District begins in Richmond and then travels south all the way to the North Carolina border. The CD includes the cities of Richmond, Petersburg, and Emporia, along with the Colonial Heights, Chester, and Lawrenceville communities.

Murkowski Takes Lead; Manchin Opponent Announces; Each Party Gains Seat in House

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Nov. 21, 2022

Senate

Alaska incumbent Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R)

Alaska: Murkowski Takes Lead — The Alaska ballot count slowly continues, and now with 87 percent of the projected vote recorded Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R) has assumed the aggregate vote lead over Republican challenger Kelly Tshibaka. According to this latest tabulation, Sen. Murkowski now has a 1,658-vote edge over Tshibaka.

The aggregate count, however, won’t likely end this election. Since the leading candidate will almost assuredly finish under the 50 percent majority mark – Sen. Murkowski now has 43.3 percent – we will then see the contest falling into the Ranked Choice Voting system. This, too, should favor Sen. Murkowski. Though Tshibaka is likely to receive more second-choice votes from the first eliminated conservative Republican candidate who has already endorsed her, Sen. Murkowski will receive many more from the second eliminated candidate, sure to be Democrat Pat Chesbro. At the end of this very long counting process expect Sen. Murkowski to be re-elected.

West Virginia: First Senate Announcement — West Virginia Rep. Alex Mooney (R-Charles Town) last week announced that he will challenge Sen. Joe Manchin (D) in the 2024 Senate race. He is the first such individual to announce for the next Senate election cycle in any state. In the 2022 election cycle, Mooney was paired with Rep. David McKinley (R-Wheeling) because West Virginia lost one of its three congressional seats in national reapportionment. In a tough Republican primary campaign, Rep. Mooney defeated Rep. McKinley, 54-36 percent, and went onto win the general election with 65 percent of the vote.

Back in August, Triton Research ran early ballot test questions pairing Sen. Manchin with several potential Republican challengers, including Rep. Mooney. In that pairing, Mooney led the senator 45-38 percent. Another potential Manchin opponent, Attorney General Patrick Morrisey (R) who challenged him in 2008, indicates he is considering another Senate bid but said he is also looking at what will be an open governor’s race, a potential bid for what will now be Rep. Mooney’s open congressional seat, or simply to seek re-election to his current position.

House

CA-13: Closest Race Continues On — In what could end as being the closest race in the country when all the votes are finally counted, Republican agri-businessman John Duarte (R) has re-captured the lead over state Assemblyman Adam Gray (D-Merced) with 73 percent of the projected vote counted. Currently, Duarte has an 865-vote lead. Looking at the five counties in the newly created District 13 that stretches from the Stockton area border to the south of Fresno, the race is close in each place.

Though the outstanding vote total in San Joaquin County is the largest and a place that clearly favors Gray, the total vote is too low to make a substantial difference in the overall count. Therefore, if percentages for the two candidates remain consistent among the outstanding votes, Duarte could win a very close victory. Therefore, we can expect not only a long waiting period to arrive at a final count, but a recount and vote challenge period will almost certainly follow. This may be the last race in the country to be called.

CO-3: Rep. Boebert Projected; Dem Concedes — Though Colorado Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Silt) may be the projected winner with just a 554-vote margin from a total vote count of 327,110, and Democrat Adam Frisch has conceded the race, the tabulation process may not be over. Because the race is within the .5 percent range that triggers an automatic recount under Colorado state law, we still may see a post-election proofing procedure after the final canvass even though Rep. Boebert has declared victory and Frisch conceded. At this point, however, with the Boebert projection, the Republican House total increases to 219.

CO-8: Democrat Caraveo Wins New Seat — Colorado’s new 8th District earned in national reapportionment was drawn as a 50/50 seat with the slightest Democratic lean, and that is exactly the way the election finished. Over the weekend, Democratic state Rep. Yadira Caraveo (D-Eastlake) was projected the winner, claiming a 1,625-vote win from a total of 236,426 currently counted ballots, giving her a 48.4 – 47.7 percent victory over Weld County Republican state Sen. Barbara Kirkmeyer.

Because this margin is likely to remain beyond the .5 percent mandatory recount range, this win will soon be certified. The Caraveo victory brings the Democratic House total to 212 with four seats remaining outstanding.

Former President Trump Announces, Already Polling Conflicts; Republicans Clinch House Majority

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Nov. 17, 2022

President

Former President Donald Trump announced that he will run for president in 2024.

Donald Trump: Officially Announces — Former President Donald Trump officially announced Tuesday night from his Palm Beach, Florida home in Mar-a-Lago that he will again run for president in 2024. He becomes the first official candidate in the next presidential race.

With controversy surrounding him and being tagged as the prime Republican loser in the 2022 elections because candidates he endorsed, supported, and in some cases recruited, went on to to lose their general election bids, Trump begins his new quest in a more weakened political position than he would have otherwise. It is now clear that he will not move unencumbered through the Republican nomination process as several candidates will eventually step up to challenge him in a fight as to who will become the party standard bearer.

Polling: Already Conflicts — Expect to see a plethora of polling released into the public domain for the 2024 presidential contest, and much of it will conflict with other data. Already, such a pattern has begun. Since the election, we’ve seen three Republican presidential primary polls being released.

YouGov, for the Economist periodical (Nov. 13-15; 432 US adults; online) posts Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis to a seven-point, 46-39 percent advantage over former President Donald Trump. A largely unfamiliar pollster, called Seven Letter Insight (Nov. 10-15; 542 US likely Republican primary voters) sees a similar result, Gov. DeSantis topping the former president, 34-26 percent. Morning Consult, polling for Politico, sees a much different result. Their survey (Nov. 10-14; 1,983 US registered voters) finds Trump with a sizable 47-33-5 percent result over Gov. DeSantis and former Vice President Mike Pence.

None of these polls should be taken particularly seriously. All are national polls, two of which have small samples and are not reflective of Republican primary voters casting ballots in state primaries.

House

Majority Status: Republicans Clinch — Late yesterday afternoon Pacific time, California US Rep. Mike Garcia (R-Santa Clarita) was projected the winner of his 27th District congressional race, which was enough to officially clinch the US House majority for the Republicans. The Garcia victory became the 218th GOP seat and with this result, four consecutive years of Democratic control comes to an end.

Rep. Garcia had led consistently throughout the 2022 race, and the size of his lead was somewhat surprising. Running for his second full term after winning a special election in early 2020 and being re-elected by a razor-thin margin in the regular election later that same year, Rep. Garcia was viewed as a highly vulnerable incumbent in heavily Democratic California.

In this current election, however, Garcia was projected the winner when holding a 54.2 percent preference factor with 78 percent of the vote tabulated. Obviously, his margin of 13,846 votes was enough to sustain even a late influx of Democratic votes.

Colorado: Projections Coming Soon — Tomorrow, we will reach the ballot acceptance deadline in Colorado. This means that, with all ballots finally in the system, we will soon see projections being made in the state’s two uncalled races, the 3rd District contest involving Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Silt), and the new 8th District where state Rep. Yadira Caraveo (D-Eastlake) holds a slight 1,691-vote advantage over state Sen. Barbara Kirkmeyer (R-Weld County).

Party Division: Seven Seats Remain Uncalled — With four more seats being called yesterday, the overall House count now stands at 218R – 210D, with seven elections remaining to be called. In addition to Rep. Mike Garcia’s (R-CA) victory that clinched the Republican House majority, Reps. Mike Levin (D-CA), Jared Golden (D-ME), and state Rep. Andrea Salinas (D) in the new OR-6 seat were all projected as winners.

In the seven outstanding districts, both parties lead in three races, with the CA-13 contest headed to a potential seesaw ending where both candidates, state Assemblyman Adam Gray (D-Merced) and agribusinessman John Duarte (R), both have legitimate chances to win.

The three Republican advantage races are the CA-3 open seat, CA-22 (Rep. David Valadao), and CO-3 (Rep. Lauren Boebert). Democrats lead in AK-AL (Rep. Mary Peltola), CA-47 (Rep. Katie Porter), and the open CO-8 new district. CA-13 is too close to call.

Nevada & Georgia Will Decide Senate Majority; House Majority Still in Limbo & Colorado Holds the Key

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Nov. 10, 2022

Senate

Can former Nevada Attorney General and 2022 Senate candidate, Adam Laxalt (R) pull out a win in the Silver State?

Senate: Nevada & Georgia to Decide Majority — With Sen. Ron Johnson (R) being projected the winner of the Wisconsin Senate race, it means that deciding the Senate majority will likely come down to either the Democrats coming from behind to prevail in Nevada or having to wait to see who wins the Dec. 6 runoff in the Georgia Senate race.

With Sen. Mark Kelly (D) poised to win his yet-to-be-called race in Arizona, whether or not the trends change in Nevada will be the next happening to observe. Currently, former Attorney General Adam Laxalt (R) leads Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D) by just under two percentage points, or 15,812 votes with approximately 84 percent of the vote recorded.

CNN has projected that the Georgia race between Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) and Republican Herschel Walker will advance to a secondary runoff election because neither man will reach the 50 percent plateau. Currently, with 99 percent of the votes tabulated, Sen. Warnock’s edge over Walker is 49.2 to 48.7 percent, a margin of 17,500 votes.

House

House: Majority Count in Limbo — Several congressional race projection calls were issued yesterday, and Republicans now have 209 declared seats as compared to the Democrats’ 191. Of the 35 uncalled, 17 are clearly headed to one party or the other. The 18 uncalled campaigns that are purely undecided will put the final touches on the House majority. At this point, the Republicans reasonably look to have clinched 212 seats and the Democrats’ 204 before the final 19 seats are finally declared.

Colorado: Key to Majority — With the House majority definitely on the line, and the winning party ending close to the 218 minimum control mark, two races in the Centennial State of Colorado could be key to determining the final outcome.

In the state’s western slope 3rd District, controversial Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Silt), who has been trailing her Democratic opponent, former Aspen City Councilman Adam Frisch, since the beginning of the count has now pulled to within just 64 votes with still many votes outstanding. According to the CNN count, five percent of the vote remains.

Colorado received a new district in national reapportionment and the new 8th District is acting just as it was intended, as a toss-up seat. The latest count finds Democratic state Rep. Yadira Caraveo (D-Eastlake) leading state Sen. Barbara Kirkmeyer (R-Weld County) by 899 votes. This race, too, has tightened and CNN reports that only 78 percent of the vote is counted.

New York: Red Wave on Long Island — Though we did not see a “red wave” materialize nationally, we surprisingly saw one on Long Island. In fact, the Island’s two Democratic open seats flipped, the third remained in the Republican column, and Rep. Andrew Garbarino (R-Sayville) was re-elected to a second term.

With Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-Shirley) not seeking re-election in order to campaign for governor, Republican Nick LaLota was declared the winner of his open 1st District, the east Long Island open seat. In the 3rd District, also open because the incumbent, Congressman Tom Suozzi (D-Glen Cove), unsuccessfully ran for governor and lost the Democratic primary to incumbent Kathy Hochul, Republican George Santos was declared the winner.

Finally, in what proved to be the Island’s biggest upset, former Hempstead Town Councilman Anthony D’Esposito will succeed retiring Rep. Kathleen Rice (D-Garden City), who chose not to seek a fifth term. D’Esposito was declared the victor over former Hempstead Town Supervisor Laura Guillen (D), who was considered a big favorite in the D+10-rated district.

House Updates – Including Gerrymandering: AL, CO, NM, NJ & NY

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Oct. 6, 2022

House

Alabama redistricting map

Redistricting: Supreme Court Hears Alabama Case — In one of the first cases on the US Supreme Court’s new term docket, oral arguments were heard for the Alabama racial gerrymandering redistricting case, which could result in a landmark ruling relating to future interpretation of the Voting Rights Act.

The state of Alabama is arguing its reasons for keeping the state’s congressional map, which features one strong majority minority district. The US government is arguing that a second minority seat can be drawn. The presentations consumed more time than usual for Supreme Court oral arguments, and now it is up to the nine justices to craft a definitive ruling, which will be released sometime before June next year.

In November, the high court will hear oral arguments on the North Carolina redistricting case, which will lead to a definitive ruling pertaining to judicial power over the constitutional authority of state legislatures.

CO-3: Rep. Boebert’s Slight Lead — Despite representing a relatively safely Republican western slope 3rd Congressional District, Colorado Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Silt) looks to have a competitive race on her hands as we begin the campaign cycle’s final weeks. Colorado-based Keating Research conducted a poll for the Adam Frisch (D) campaign (Sept. 28-Oct. 2; 500 likely CO-3 voters; live interview & text). The ballot test results found Rep. Boebert’s lead shrinking to 47-45 percent, down from Keating’s 49-42 percent spread detected in its July survey.

Expect to see countering numbers from either the Boebert campaign or the National Republican Congressional Committee to soon be released.

NM-2: Gerrymandered District Yields Dem a Slight Edge — The Global Strategy Group, polling for the Gabe Vasquez (D) campaign, tested the NM-2 electorate to determine the state of the race featuring freshman Rep. Yvette Herrell (R-Alamogordo) and Vasquez, a Las Cruces City councilman. The GSG survey (Sept. 20-26; 500 likely NM-2 voters; live interview) sees Vasquez pulling ahead of Rep. Herrell, 45-43 percent.

The result is not particularly surprising in that the Democratic legislature and governor crafted the new 2nd CD to flip. Before redistricting, the FiveThirtyEight data organization rated the seat, R+14. Post-redistricting, we see a D+4 categorization. This district will still yield a close finish, and voter turnout will tell the ultimate tale.

NJ-7: Rep. Malinowski Internal Poll Shows Dead Heat — The Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research organization conducted a congressional poll for two-term Rep. Tom Malinowski (D-Rocky Hill), who is again in a tight battle with former state Senate Minority Leader Tom Kean Jr. (R). In 2020, Kean held Rep. Malinowski to a 51-49 percent re-election win in a district that was more Democratic than the new 7th. The GQR survey (Sept. 20-26; 500 likely NJ-7 general election voters) sees both candidates now attracting 48 percent of the vote. The Democratic pollster, however, also detects a partisan generic party label split of 50-45 percent favoring the Republicans. NJ-7 is a key Republican conversion opportunity seat.

NY-22: Republican Breaks Ahead — The Syracuse-anchored 22nd District is open in the 2022 election cycle because Rep. John Katko (R-Syracuse), one of the 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach former President Trump, is not seeking a fifth term. Ironically, the court-drawn map actually makes this district two points more Republican than the seat the Rep. Katko consistently won.

Siena College conducted an independent poll for the Spectrum News Service (Sept. 25-28; 453 likely NY-22 general election voters) and sees Republican technology company executive Brandon Williams jumping out to a five point, 45-40 percent, advantage over former intelligence agency analyst Francis Conole (D).

With the respondents believing the country is on the wrong track by a 25:63 percent margin, it is not particularly surprising to also see Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) falling behind Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-Shirley/East Long Island) in this Upstate District. NY-22 is a must-win for the GOP in November.