Tag Archives: Remington Research Group

Ohio Entering Home Stretch

Ohio redistricting map in question (click on map above or here to go to FiveThirtyEight’s interactive map)

By Jim Ellis

April 18, 2022 — We’re on the threshold of entering the final two weeks before the Ohio primary on May 3, and the candidates for all offices are swinging into high gear just as the state Supreme Court rejected another set of redistricting maps.

The state House of Representatives and Senate primaries having been postponed, because the legislature and state Supreme Court cannot find common ground pertaining to the new district lines; no new primary date has been set. Late last week, for the fourth time, the judicial body rejected the legislature’s draw for their own political boundaries in both chambers. Since the Ohio Constitution does not give the courts the authority to draw maps, all the justices can do is return the plans to the legislature and order them to begin yet again.

News is occurring in the races that are headed toward nominations. The new Remington Research Group US Senate GOP primary survey (April 11-12; 884 likely Ohio Republican primary voters, interactive voice response system) finds former state treasurer, Josh Mandel, forging back into the lead and state Sen. Matt Dolan (R-Chagrin Falls), a minority owner of the Cleveland Guardians MLB franchise, moving into contention.

The statewide GOP primary ballot test finds Mandel leading the pack with 23 percent as compared to businessman Mike Gibbons’ 17 percent, Sen. Dolan’s 15 percent, former Ohio Republican Party chair Jane Timken posting 12 percent, and author J.D. Vance trailing at 10 percent.

Reports suggest that an endorsement coming for Vance from former President Donald Trump is imminent. If so, the polling standings will change. Remington posed a second ballot test question to the current respondent pool asking how they would vote if knowing Trump had endorsed Vance. While Mandel would still lead, his edge shrinks to 19 percent; Gibbons, Dolan, and Vance would bunch together at 15 percent; and Timken drops to 11 percent.

If the reports of Trump endorsing Vance prove true, the Remington poll suggests that such a move would likely change the race’s flow. The Trump involvement in such a manner appears to make a close contest even closer.

The Remington survey is the tenth poll taken of the Republican Senate primary since the beginning of February. Gibbons has led in six of them and Mandel three, with one showing a three-way tie among the two aforementioned men and Vance. The fact that all five of the key candidates, at one time or another, have been within shouting distance of the lead suggests that any one of them could catch a flyer at the end and propel themselves into a nomination victory with a small plurality.

On the Democratic side, US Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Warren/Youngstown) appears to be cruising toward an easy nomination victory against former Consumer Financial Protection Bureau official and 2020 failed congressional candidate Morgan Harper.

Continue reading

Missouri Anxiety

By Jim Ellis

Ex-Missouri Gov. Eric Greitens (R)

March 21, 2022 — In 2016, retired Navy SEAL Eric Greitens was an upset winner in the Missouri governor’s contest and was quickly looked upon as a rising national Republican political star, but the glow would soon fade. Nineteen months later Gov. Greitens would resign his office in disgrace as a pre-election extra-marital affair came to the forefront followed by associated criminal charges relating to actions toward the woman and alleged campaign finance violations.

Later, the criminal charges were dropped because the prosecuting St. Louis District Attorney’s proven corrupt actions transformed into official prosecutorial misconduct. The embarrassing details that surfaced around the Greitens affair, however, underscored with him having a pregnant wife at home, ruined his previously stellar reputation.

Despite his tarnished personal image, Greitens was not finished with electoral politics, and decided to enter the open US Senate race after Sen. Roy Blunt (R) chose not to seek re-election to a third term. Speculation had been rampant earlier in the cycle that Greitens was even considering launching a primary challenge against the veteran politician if Sen. Blunt had run again. Had such a contest come to fruition, Greitens was viewed as having little to no chance of pulling an upset victory.

When the resigned governor entered the open seat Senate campaign, many Republican leaders began expressing trepidation that if he won the nomination the door would open to the party losing the general election against the eventual Democratic nominee. With virtually any other Republican standard bearer, the Missouri race would be considered safely Republican.

The new Trafalgar Group survey (March 9-13; 1,075 likely Missouri Republican primary voters, live interview, interactive voice response, online and text) gives credence to the previous analysis. Paired individually with two Democrats, Greitens only ties former St. Louis area state Sen. Scott Sifton, 45-45 percent, and holds the smallest of leads, 46-45 percent, over Iraq/Afghan War veteran Lucas Kunce.

In contrast, US Rep. Vicky Hartzler (R-Harrisonville/Columbia) would defeat Sifton, 57-37 percent, and Kunce, 56-39 percent. Attorney General Eric Schmitt (R) would also easily top the two Democrats (against Sifton: 54-40 percent; opposite Kunce: 55-40 percent).

However, a previous February Trafalgar poll (Feb. 22-24; 1,026 likely Missouri Republican primary voters) posted Greitens to a 31-23-17 percent Republican primary lead over Schmitt and Rep. Hartzler, respectively.

Continue reading

Dueling Dual Polls

By Jim Ellis

Detroit Police Chief James Craig

June 14, 2021 — We open the week looking at conflicting polls from two Midwestern statewide races. The Michigan Republican Party published a survey that conflicts with earlier data we’ve seen about their state’s gubernatorial race, and the two leading Ohio Republican Senate contenders both released recent surveys that best tell their own campaign story.

In the Wolverine State, the Competitive Edge Research & Communication firm, polling for the Michigan Republican Party (May 26-June 4; 809 likely Michigan voters), projects retired Detroit Police Chief James Craig (R), who is soon expected to announce his bid for governor, leading incumbent Gretchen Whitmer (D) by a spread beyond the polling margin of error, 45-38 percent.

Curiously, the MIGOP leadership also released the ballot test that featured the party’s 2020 and 2018 US Senate nominee, John James. Here, the CERC finds Gov. Whitmer leading James, 50-45 percent. James has not indicated that he is going to enter the gubernatorial race, so it is surprising to see the Republican Party releasing data that puts one of their top political figures in a weaker position. James lost the 2020 Senate race to incumbent Gary Peters (D) by a tight 50-48 percent count.

In May, the Target Insyght survey research company (May 9-11; 800 registered Michigan voters) painted a different picture, forecasting a 48-42 percent lead for Gov. Whitmer over Craig and 49-39 percent against James.

The difference could be attributed to James retiring as chief of police after the TI poll was conducted and before the CERC survey was taken. Former chief Craig is a well-known and popular figure in Detroit, and the accolades given him for his tenure could certainly have helped his polling data at least on a short-term basis.

Additionally, Gov. Whitmer has been caught in several inconsistencies regarding her COVID shutdown policies, which were some of the most drastic in the country. More than once, she was found not following the letter of her own directives for herself and family.

Continue reading

Disputing the Georgia Poll

By Jim Ellis

Former DeKalb County, Georgia chief executive officer and ex-state representative, Vernon Jones

May 11, 2021 — At the end of last week, the Remington Research Group released a survey of the Georgia 2022 Republican gubernatorial primary for their client, former DeKalb County chief executive officer and ex-state representative Vernon Jones. The results were met with some derision.

The poll (May 1-3; 1,040 likely Republican primary voters, interactive voice response system) finds Gov. Brian Kemp leading Jones only 39-35 percent, and an Atlanta Journal Constitution reporter responded with negative comments about the poll’s credibility and cited unnamed GOP consultants who allegedly agree with this analysis.

Greg Bluestein of the AJC said in response to the poll’s publishing, “suffice it to say we have not found one person with proven knowledge about Georgia politics who believes the poll is credible.” He further stated that, “the last two independent polls I’ve seen show Gov. Kemp leading Jones 74-17 percent and Kemp up 64-14 percent.” There is no evidence that these latter polls have been publicly released, however.

To reject the Remington poll in such a manner should not be considered a legitimate response. The Remington Research Group is a national pollster that specializes in interactive voice response systems and are certainly a well-established survey research firm.

According to the FiveThirtyEight statistical website that ranks polling firms, we find the RRG earning a B grade and placed as the 103rd entity of the 482 polling organizations in the FiveThirtyEight universe. This means the pollster lands in the top 22 percent of all tested survey research firms. Therefore, to reject Remington’s latest Georgia findings as not credible is an analysis and comment trail that should be discounted.

Gov. Kemp’s popularity among Georgia Republicans clearly suffered after the election controversy in his state. At the low point, according to the Morning Consult data intelligence firm, his personal favorability rating stood with a 62:31 percent positive to negative ratio among members of his own party, which is touching the danger zone for any office holder.

Continue reading

Huge Missouri Polling Swing

By Jim Ellis

Ex-Missouri Gov. Eric Greitens (R)

April 6, 2021 — Two new Missouri Senate surveys are about as divergent as polling gets.

For background purposes, former Missouri Gov. Eric Greitens (R) received a great deal of media attention when he declared for the Senate during the latter part of March, just after incumbent Roy Blunt (R) announced his retirement. Much of the coverage dealt with Greitens’ 2017 sex scandal that forced him from office. Just days later, Attorney General Eric Schmitt (R) went public with his plans to challenge the disgraced former governor for the 2022 Republican nomination.

With so much early attention being paid to the race, two pollsters fielded surveys during the same period, but their ballot test numbers drew very different conclusions. Fabrizio, Lee & Associates interviewed 400 likely Republican primary voters during the March 23-25 period. The Remington Research Group conducted their interactive voice response study within the same time frame, March 24-25, but their sampling universe was a much larger 1,041 Missouri likely Republican primary voters.

Fabrizio Lee puts Greitens in far better position than Remington Research. They see the ex-governor leading AG Schmitt by a whopping 48-11 percent margin with unannounced potential contenders Reps. Ann Wagner (R-Ballwin) and Jason Smith (R-Salem) posting support percentages of nine and seven, respectively.

Conversely, Remington Research finds a very close race. Their ballot test finds Greitens leading AG Schmitt, by only a single percentage point, 40-39 percent. Adding the other potential candidates, Reps. Wagner and Smith along with Reps. Billy Long (R-Springfield), Vicky Hartzler (R-Harrisonville) and St. Louis businessman John Brunner, we see a 31-18-12-9-8-6-2 percent division with Greitens and Schmitt leading the pack with Reps. Wagner, Smith, Hartzler, and Long trailing respectively. Brunner, who has previously lost two statewide races, tracks at only two percent support.

In the head-to-head pairing with Greitens and Schmitt, the geographic segmentation between the two candidates virtually mirrored the statewide 40-39 percent split in Columbia, Joplin, and Cape Girardeau. We see a much different result in Kansas City, St. Louis, and Springfield, the state’s largest population centers. Greitens built a 46-35 percent lead in Springfield and a 43-38 percent edge in Kansas City. Schmitt, however, had the advantage in his home area of St. Louis, 43-34 percent.

Severe breaks occur when an ideological prism is placed over the two candidates. Among those in the survey universe who self-identify as very conservative, Greitens has a 48-34 percent lead. For those who say they are somewhat conservative, the margin tightens: Greitens, 41-37 percent. When looking at the moderate-progressive segment, the outcome substantially flips: Schmitt, 51-21 percent.

Continue reading