Tag Archives: President Obama

Energy Issue Looms in W.Va. With EPA; Ellis Makes a Move in Michigan

The air wars have been underway for months in southern West Virginia, and the American Energy Alliance just upped the ante this week.

The issue advocacy organization is targeting vulnerable Rep. Nick Rahall (D-WV-3) with a new ad about what they claim is the  Continue reading >

Republican Candidates Still in Play in the Most Democratic of Districts

California’s 31st Congressional District, the country’s most Democratic congressional district represented by a Republican, lies in the heart of California’s Inland Empire and it’s an open seat once more. In 2012, President Obama captured 57 percent of the vote here against Republican Mitt Romney. The party registration breaks down 41-34-21 percent, Democratic, Republican, and Declined-to-State (Independent), respectively, according to the pre-primary official totals. Hispanics comprise 42 percent of the total population.

Two years ago, a statistical oddity occurred in the state’s first regular jungle primary. Due to an abnormally low Democratic turnout and because they had the more established candidates, Republicans were able to qualify two candidates for the general election, thus taking a seat right out of the Democrats’ hands. With incumbent Rep. Gary Miller (R) retiring this year, the 31st District again appears primed, at least on paper, for a Democratic conversion. The primary is set for June 3.

A new poll, however, suggests that at least one Republican will advance to the general election, making the Democrats’ victory  Continue reading >

Upsets Foiled as Incumbents Reign in Primaries

The first in a series of consecutive May primary weeks went solidly for the incumbents last night, as all US House members facing intra-party challengers, including House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH-8), rode to victory.

In the preponderance of cases, the incumbents won in the normal landslide proportion one would expect in primary elections. In only three instances, those of representatives Renee Ellmers (R-NC-2), Walter Jones Jr. (R-NC-3) and David Joyce (R-OH-14), did the incumbents fail to break 60 percent. Speaker Boehner, after campaigning hard and hitting the television airwaves to rebuff his under-financed but creative opponents, scored 69 percent of the vote.

The best news of the evening for Republicans came in North Carolina, where state House Speaker Thom Tillis exceeded the 40 percent threshold to win the party’s US Senate nomination outright. Late polling clearly suggested that Tillis would place first in the field of eight candidates, but questions remained as to whether he would  Continue reading >

Special Election Today in FL-19

The eighth special US House election since the inception of the current 113th Congress begins today. Voters in southwest Florida’s 19th Congressional District will choose nominees for the June 24 special general election.

Today’s action is exclusively in the Republican primary as four candidates battle to become the GOP standard bearer, hoping to succeed resigned Rep. Trey Radel (R). The eventual Republican nominee will face public relations executive April Freeman, who is unopposed in today’s special Democratic primary.

The 19th District, anchored in the cities of Ft. Myers, Cape Coral, Naples, and Marco Island, is solidly Republican. Mitt Romney defeated President Obama here in 2012 by a solid 61-39 percent count despite losing the state 49-50 percent. Four years earlier, John McCain commanded 57 percent support against then-Sen. Obama’s 42 percent. Prior to Radel winning the newly constructed and re-numbered 19th District in the last general election, the region was consecutively represented by GOP Reps. Connie Mack IV (R-FL-14), Porter Goss (R-FL-14), and Connie Mack III (R-FL-13), since its original creation in 1982.
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Five Key States, Five Key Senate Races

Karl Rove’s right-of-center American Crossroads 527 political organization commissioned Harper Polling surveys in five US Senate campaigns, releasing the data at the end of last week. Though sample sizes and the surveying periods are not available, the ballot tests all appear to be in a range that are consistent with other published results.

In Arkansas, despite several other surveys projecting incumbent Sen. Mark Pryor (D) to be holding a slight lead, Harper shows the two candidates tied at 39 percent.

The Colorado numbers are consistent with virtually all other data that has come into the public domain. Harper posts a two-point race between Sen. Mark Udall (D) and newly nominated Republican Cory Gardner, the 4th District congressman. This poll gives Sen. Udall a 45-43 percent lead.

Though the Louisiana numbers have been close for some time, with Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) typically leading but in the low 40s, the Harper data is the first to show  Continue reading >

Why You Won’t See Sebelius Running in the Kansas Senate Race

According to the New York Times, unnamed Democrats are floating the name of outgoing Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius as a potential opponent to Sen. Pat Roberts (R-KS) later this year. For many reasons, such a move will not happen.

As we know, Sebelius announced earlier in April that she will be leaving her position. President Obama already has appointed a successor, subject to Senate confirmation. She leaves office bearing the brunt of what has gone wrong with the Affordable Care Act implementation, particularly relating to the disastrous registration process on the official healthcare website.

According to the Times analysis, Roberts is viewed as potentially vulnerable. This may be true in the Republican primary, because he faces a spirited challenge from physician Milton Wolf, but it is hardly the case in rock-ribbed Republican Kansas when considering the general election.

Public Policy Polling had already tested Sebelius as a potential opponent to the senator, giving us insight into her strength on the ballot. She has a strong history as a  Continue reading >

Georgia Senate Race Ramping Up

The important open Georgia Senate race is starting to hit its stride. With Sarah Palin landing here to endorse one candidate, a new poll placing the businessman candidate in the lead, a Democrat ad released touting the candidate’s association with a Republican president, and a Republican spot sporting a mediocre impersonator of a Democratic president, the activity level is clearly revving up.

Former Republican vice presidential nominee and Alaska governor, Sarah Palin, came to the Atlanta area for a series of events in support of former Secretary of State Karen Handel, the only female in the Republican primary. Handel is no stranger  Continue reading >