Tag Archives: Montana

Unusual NH Presidential Poll; Republican Primary Developing in Montana; VA-7 Candidates Coming Forward; NH Governor News

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Aug. 17, 2023

President

Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

New Hampshire: New Poll; Unique Info — The new Emerson College survey (Aug. 9-11; 837 registered New Hampshire voters; interactive voice response system, text & online) provides new information not seen in any other similar study.

For example, the results find:

Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie moving into second place
No candidate but former President Donald Trump landing in double digits
Cornel West’s influence level is confirmed at four percent, which appears to come from President Joe Biden’s vote pool
Businessman Perry Johnson attracting enough support to be recorded on a poll
Former Vice President Mike Pence flirting with last place

It remains to be seen if this survey is an outlier, or if new trends are forming.

House

MT-2: Republican Primary Developing — We reported that Montana Superintendent of Public Instruction Elsie Arntzen (R) filed a congressional exploratory committee in anticipation that Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Glendive) will run for the Senate. Now we see State Auditor Troy Downing (R) doing the same.

Both qualify that their interest in the 2nd District seat is present only if Rep. Rosendale foregoes re-election and formally enters the Senate race. Downing has run for Congress before. He entered the 2018 US Senate primary and placed third with 19.1 percent of the vote. Rosendale won the nomination with 33.8 percent, and then lost 50-47 percent to Sen. Jon Tester (D) in the associated general election.

VA-7: GOP Candidates Coming Forward — Political speculation suggesting that Virginia Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Glen Allen) will not seek re-election in order to prepare for a 2025 open governor’s race has already encouraged potential Republican candidates to come forward. Several are now testing the political waters for a 2024 run in the politically marginal 7th Congressional District.

Two military veterans — retired Navy SEAL and defense contractor Cameron Hamilton and Iraq War veteran Jon Myers, a retired Marine Corps officer — have both filed congressional campaign committees with the Federal Election Commission. Business consultant Bill Moher and Army veteran Shaliek Tarpley are previously announced Republican candidates.

Should Rep. Spanberger retire, we can expect a very crowded Republican and Democratic primary season. Republicans will likely hold either a nominating convention or what they term as a “firehouse primary” (where only a few polling places are open throughout the sprawling district), while Democrats typically hold a traditional primary. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates VA-7 as a highly competitive D+2.

Governor

New Hampshire: Ayotte Leads in Early Poll — Former US Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R) is starting her campaign for governor with a lead according to a new Emerson College poll (Aug. 9-11; 837 registered New Hampshire voters; interactive voice response system, text & online). According to the results, Ayotte would lead Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig (D) 46-37 percent, and Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington (D) by a larger 47-34 percent span.

The poll did not test the Republican primary. At this point, former state Senate president and 2022 US Senate candidate Chuck Morse is opposing Ayotte for the Republican nomination and others are expected to enter. Incumbent Gov. Chris Sununu (R) is not seeking a fifth term.

General to Oppose Marjorie Taylor Greene; Montana Candidate Filing; Another Opponent for Wisconsin Rep. Steil; Republican Candidate for Houston Mayoral Race

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Aug. 16, 2023

House

Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Rome) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

GA-14: Retired General to Oppose Rep. Greene — Retired Army Brigadier Gen. Shawn Harris (D) announced that he will enter the Democratic primary to hopefully challenge two-term Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Rome).

Defeating Rep. Greene in the general election is the longest of shots. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates GA-14 as R+45. Dave’s Redistricting App calculates the partisan lean at 69.4R – 28.8D. The question as to whether Greene is even vulnerable to a Republican primary challenge remains doubtful. In the 2022 race, the congresswoman was re-nominated with 69.5 percent of the vote with five opponents dividing the remaining 30.5 percent.

MT-2: Republican Files Exploratory Committee in Anticipation — Montana Superintendent of Public Instruction Elsie Arntzen (R) filed a congressional exploratory committee Monday in anticipation that Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Glendive) will run for the Senate. Arntzen, who is ineligible to seek a third term in her current statewide position, says she will only enter the US House contest if Rosendale vacates the seat for another statewide race.

Should he depart for the Senate, the 2nd District Republican primary figures to host a very crowded and competitive open primary. Carrying a R+30 rating from the FiveThirtyEight data organization and a 59.8R – 37.9D partisan lean factor that the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate, a succession battle here would be decided in the Republican primary. The 2nd District covers central and eastern Montana and encompasses the cities of Billings, the state’s largest municipality, Great Falls, and the state capital of Helena.

WI-1: Second Democrat Announces Against Rep. Steil — Lorenzo Santos (D), a Racine County Emergency official, joined the Democratic primary with the goal of challenging three-term Rep. Bryan Steil (R-Janesville) next year. Already running is former local official Anthony Hammes (D).

This race is beginning to attract attention because of the possibility that the Wisconsin congressional map will be redrawn. If that happens, there is a strong probability the 1st District becomes more Democratic and enhances the possibility that Rep. Steil may opt for a Senate bid. We can expect further action coming from southern Wisconsin as the potential of a district reconfiguration begins to grow.

Cities

Houston: Republican Emerges — Hoping to split the Democratic vote between US Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Houston) and veteran state Sen. John Whitmire (D-Houston), former at-large City Councilman Jack Christie (R) announced that he will now compete in the open mayoral race scheduled for Nov. 7. The structure is a jungle election contest where all 14 declared candidates would appear on the same ballot. If no contender receives 50 percent of the vote in the first election, a runoff will be scheduled between the two top finishers.

Though the field is large, polling suggests that Sen. Whitmire and Rep. Jackson Lee are well ahead of the remaining candidates who comprise the pool. Therefore, Christie’s strategy of coalescing the minority Republican vote and coming from the outside to capture a runoff position could potentially become viable. Incumbent Mayor Sylvester Turner (D) is ineligible to run for a third term.

Senate Primaries Forming – Part I

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Aug. 11, 2023

Senate

Senate Races: Balance of Power — The 2024 US Senate races are critical in determining which party will control the chamber in the next Congress, but before Republicans mount a challenge to the Democratic majority they must first navigate through what, in some cases, could be contentious primaries.

The Democrats have only one legitimate challenge opportunity within the field of 11 Republican defense states — Texas — but here as well, they feature a competitive battle for the party nomination. They are also likely headed to a rousing year-long double-Democratic jungle primary and general election in California and a hotly contested open intra-party battle in Maryland.

The following is a brief synopsis of the primary situations in the states alphabetically from Arizona through Montana. Next, we will cover Nevada through Wisconsin:

Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

• Arizona: In this wild-card Senate race that will feature a three-way general election, two of the entries appear set. Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I) has not yet officially announced that she will seek re-election, but all indications are that she will mount a vigorous campaign. The question remains as to whether she will run as an Independent or the nominee of a minor party, such as the No Labels Party, which has qualified in her state. Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) appears as a lock to win the Democratic nomination.

On the Republican side, reports are surfacing the 2022 gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake is close to announcing her Senate effort. Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb is already a declared candidate. Early polling suggests that Lake would begin with a significant primary lead.

Though most Republican strategists blanch at another Lake run, it is important to remember that she received 49.6 percent of the vote in the governor’s race. In the three-way Senate contest, 35-38 percent is likely all that’s necessary to win and she has strong base support. The Arizona primary is scheduled for Aug. 6, 2024.

• California: Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) is retiring, and in her wake is a major political battle among three progressive left Democratic House members, Reps. Barbara Lee (D-Oakland), Katie Porter (D-Irvine), and Adam Schiff (D-Burbank). The big question coming from the jungle primary is whether a Republican, coalescing the minority party votes, can capture one of the two general election finalist positions because the Democratic vote will be so badly fractured.

Chances are Reps. Schiff and Porter, probably in that order, advance into what promises to be a contentious and very expensive open US Senate general election campaign. The California jungle primary is scheduled for Super Tuesday, March 5.

• Florida: Democrats have yet to find a credible opponent for Sen. Rick Scott (R), but he does have Republican opposition. Businessman Keith Gross, who reportedly has the wherewithal to fund his own campaign but has yet to make a substantial investment, is challenging Sen. Scott for renomination.

Gross may be able to wage a battle against the senator but toppling him for the nomination appears as a bridge too far. Sen. Scott appears in good shape for renomination and re-election. The Florida primary is late, Aug. 20, 2024, so much time remains for a primary contest to take shape.

• Indiana: Sen. Mike Braun (R) is leaving the Senate to run for governor, and Congressman Jim Banks (R-Columbia City) appears to be the prohibitive favorite to succeed him in both the Republican primary and general election. At this point, no strong Republican has emerged, but that could change as we get closer to the Feb. 9, 2024, candidate filing deadline. The Indiana primary is scheduled for May 7, 2024.
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Senate: Status Check

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Aug. 1, 2023

Senate

Senate Election Cycle: A Review — The 2024 US Senate cycle is a critical one, especially for Republicans since the political map favors them for the first time in three election cycles. Democrats must defend 23 of the 34 Senate races next year, and there are signs of competition in only one of the 11 GOP defense seats.

Therefore, Republicans must maximize their present opportunity because they face minority status for several more election cycles if they fail to claim the majority next year.

With that, let’s review where the key races stand:

FIRST TIER (alphabetically by state)

Sen. Jon Tester (D), Montana

• Montana: Sen. Jon Tester (D) stands for a fourth term from a state that has moved considerably to the right since he was last on the ballot in 2018. The presidential turnout for 2024 is another obstacle that he must overcome.

The Club for Growth leadership several months ago said they would back US Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Glendive) to the tune of $10 million if he decided to challenge Sen. Tester, as he did five years ago. In the 2018 election, Rosendale, then the state auditor, lost to Sen. Tester, 50-47 percent.

Now, CfG president David McIntosh, himself a former Republican congressman, is hedging on such a support level, saying that retired Navy SEAL and aerospace company CEO Tim Sheehy is an impressive candidate and Rep. Rosendale is needed in the House. Rosendale has long been a presumed Senate candidate but has yet to come forward and formally announce his political plans. Former Navy SEAL and aerospace company Sheehy, with the Republican leadership’s endorsement, has officially entered the race.

• Nevada: The close results seen in the state both in 2022 and 2020, along with more GOP candidate development, moves Nevada into the top tier. Afghan War veteran and 2022 Senate candidate Sam Brown enters the race with endorsements from the Senate leadership and key support groups.

Former Ambassador to Iceland Jeffrey Ross Gunter, one of former President Donald Trump’s appointees, is close to becoming a Senate candidate. Also in the race is former state Assemblyman Jim Marchant who was defeated in previous gubernatorial and secretary of state races.

The eventual Republican nominee, particularly if Brown wins, will be in a toss-up race with first-term Sen. Jacky Rosen (D).

• Ohio: Republicans have a three-way primary featuring Secretary of State Frank LaRose, state Sen. Matt Dolan, and businessman Bernie Moreno. Polling shows all three would run within the polling margin of error opposite Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) while keeping him under the 50 percent support plateau.

Republicans have done well in Ohio since Sen. Brown was re-elected in 2018. This will likely be the incumbent’s most difficult re-election race. Ohio becomes a must-win for the Republicans if they are to wrest the Senate majority away from the Democrats.

• West Virginia: Polling finds Gov. Jim Justice (R) holding comfortable leads over Sen. Joe Manchin (D) in the general election and Rep. Alex Mooney (R-Charles Town) in the Republican primary. Sen. Manchin has still not committed to seeking re-election. West Virginia is the Republicans best conversion opportunity. If the GOP fails to win this seat it will be a precursor to a very bad election night.

SECOND TIER (alphabetically by state)

• Arizona: This race will be the wild card of the 2024 election cycle. The three-way race featuring Independent incumbent Kyrsten Sinema means that she, a Democrat, likely Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix), and an eventual Republican nominee, possibly 2022 gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake, could all win this seat with a plurality figure of less than 40 percent.

Considering that Lake received 49.6 percent of the vote in the governor’s race, her chances in the Senate race should not be overlooked. She still, however, must be viewed as an underdog since the other two candidates’ chances appear better at present.

• Michigan: Mitchell Research conducted a new poll of the Michigan electorate (July 11-13; 639 likely Michigan voters; SMS text) and finds Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) recording a 44-38 percent lead over former Rep. Mike Rogers (R) and an even larger 41-28 percent advantage over ex-US Rep. Peter Meijer (R). Both are potential Senate candidates.

Additionally, two-term US Rep. Lisa McClain (R-Bruce), who represents the region commonly referred to as “the thumb” since the state’s Lower Peninsula configuration resembles a human hand, said that she will not enter the open Senate race next year. The move presumes that she will seek re-election to the House in 2024.

Michigan is trending more Democratic than it had in the previous elections before 2020, so the party remains the favorite to hold this open seat due to incumbent Sen. Debbie Stabenow’s (D) retirement.

• Pennsylvania: Sen. Bob Casey, Jr. (D) is on the ballot for a fourth term next year and is the clear favorite for re-election. Republicans do not yet have an official candidate, but it is believed that 2022 Senate candidate David McCormick will at some point announce his entry into the race. He lost the Republican nomination in the last election to Dr. Mehmet Oz by 950 votes statewide.

Even with McCormick in the race, Sen. Casey will hold the inside track to re-election. For this seat to fall to the Republicans, a national Red Wave will have to form.

• Texas: The Lone Star State is the only place at present where a Republican incumbent is being seriously challenged. The entrance of state Sen. Roland Gutierrez (D-San Antonio), however, actually helps Sen. Cruz. With Gutierrez being identified with the progressive left, Sen. Cruz will be able to use the Democratic primary to help drive Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas) further to the left, thus setting both up favorably for the general election regardless of which man becomes the Democratic nominee.

This will be an expensive race, but Sen. Cruz is well positioned to again prevail.

• Wisconsin: Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) stands for a third term. Wisconsin turns in close races, but early polling suggests the Democrats have a clear advantage heading into this cycle. Republicans have yet to recruit a candidate. Some of the GOP possibilities are individuals who have lost previous statewide races.

Should a redistricting case come before the state Supreme Court, there is a possibility that the Wisconsin congressional map may be redrawn. If so, then both Reps. Bryan Steil (R-Janesville) and Derrick Van Order (R-Prairie du Chien) could be endangered. If that happens, we could see Steil move forward to challenge Sen. Baldwin. Should this scenario unfold, the Senate race would become more competitive.

Burgum Qualifies for GOP Debate; Support for Montana Senate Candidate Wans; Democratic Competition in CA-22; Returning Candidate in FL-9

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, July 27, 2023

President

North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum (R)

Gov. Doug Burgum: Qualifies for GOP Debate — North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum’s campaign team announced that the candidate has qualified for the first Republican debate on Aug. 23 in Milwaukee. Gov. Burgum is showing an uptick in backing from both Iowa and New Hampshire and has attracted enough small dollar contributions and polling support to qualify for a podium on the debate stage.

Gov. Burgum is the seventh debate participant joining former President Donald Trump, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC), ex-UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy. Ex-Vice President Mike Pence remains the most well-known candidate who has not yet qualified.

Senate

Montana: Club for Growth Hedges on Support for Rosendale — The Club for Growth leadership several months ago said they would back US Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Glendive) to the tune of $10 million if he decided to challenge Sen. Jon Tester (D), as he did five years ago. In the 2018 election, Rosendale, then the state auditor, lost to Sen. Tester, 50-47 percent.

House

CA-22: Democratic Competition — In November, Golden State Rep. David Valadao (R-Hanford) defeated then-state Assemblyman Rudy Salas (D), 51.5 – 48.5 percent, in a district the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as D+10. Salas, who many regard as the congressman’s most difficult opponent from the group of candidates he faced during his five victorious federal campaigns, has already announced that he is returning for a rematch. Now, however, further competition looms on the horizon. State Sen. Melissa Hurtado (D-Sanger/Bakersfield) is reportedly preparing to announce for Congress and will enter the March 5, 2024, all-party jungle primary.

While Hurtado’s Senate district covers just over 96 percent of the 22nd Congressional District, she was only re-elected in November by just a 22-vote margin from more than 138,000 ballots cast. Therefore, it appears that Salas should still be favored to advance into the general election against Rep. Valadao.

FL-9: Republican to Try Again — Former state Rep. John Quinones (R), who ran for the 9th District seat in 2012 but lost soundly (63-37 percent) to then-Rep. Alan Grayson (D), is returning to run again in 2024, this time hoping to challenge incumbent Rep. Darren Soto (D-Kissimmee). The 9th District, which contains the south Orlando area, was the most over-populated of the 27 Florida congressional districts prior to reapportionment and redistricting. It has 30 percent different territory from when Quinones ran the first time.

Rep. Soto was re-elected to a fourth term in November with a 54-46 percent margin, which was much lower than expected against an opponent who spent less than $600,000. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates FL-9 at a substantial D+16, with a partisan lean calculation from Dave’s Redistricting App of 58.8D – 39.2R.

New California Senate Entry; Montana’s Sheehy Gets Major Endorsement; Former Nevada Senate Candidate Ready to Announce; Louisiana & North Carolina Governor News

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, July 5, 2023

Senate

Former Google executive Lexi Reese

California: New Senate Entry — Wealthy former Google executive Lexi Reese (D), who says she will spend some of her own fortune on the open statewide US Senate race, announced that she will enter the California March 5 all-party primary for the right to succeed retiring Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D).

While her path to claim one of the two qualifying positions necessary for advancing into the general election is narrow since she faces sitting US Reps. Barbara Lee (D-Oakland), Katie Porter (D-Irvine), and Adam Schiff (D-Burbank), the chances of her taking enough Democratic votes to potentially allow a Republican to sneak past the Democratic field and clinch a general election ballot slot becomes more plausible. The California Senate race will be one of the main attractions on Super Tuesday.

Montana: Another Major Endorsement for Sheehy — On the heels of retired Navy SEAL and aerospace company CEO Tim Sheehy announcing his senatorial campaign and receiving the National Republican Senatorial Committee endorsement, another has come his way. Gov. Greg Gianforte (R) also announced his public support for Sheehy.

It is clear the Republican political establishment is getting solidly behind Sheehy in an attempt to deny Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Glendive), who soon will announce his own Senate candidacy, the nomination. Rep. Rosendale begins with a large polling lead, so it will be worth watching to see if the Montana Republican establishment has enough pull to thwart a strong Rosendale bid. The eventual party nominee then challenges three-term Sen. Jon Tester (D) in what should be considered a must-win contest for the GOP.

Nevada: Former Candidate Ready to Announce — Disabled Afghan War veteran Sam Brown lost the 2022 Senate Republican primary to former Attorney General Adam Laxalt, but raised more than $4.4 million for his race, which caught the attention of the Nevada Republican leaders. Reports are surfacing that suggest Brown will return for the 2024 campaign and will announce his intentions this month. Should he enter the Republican primary, he will face former state assemblyman and ex-Secretary of State nominee Jim Marchant.

The eventual Republican nominee will then challenge first-term Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) in what has the potential of becoming a top-tier 2024 Senate race.

Governor

Louisiana: Dueling Polls — Two all-party jungle gubernatorial primary polls have been released brandishing very different conclusions. The Remington Research Group (June 22-25; 896 likely Louisiana voters) released a survey this week that projected a close open contest. They found the lone Democratic candidate, former Transportation Secretary Shawn Wilson, who is now the officially endorsed party candidate, usurping all Republicans to capture the lead with 27 percent, two points ahead of Attorney General Jeff Landry. Former Louisiana Chamber of Commerce CEO and ex-gubernatorial chief of staff Stephen Waguespack placed a relatively close third with 16 percent.

WPA Intelligence released their earlier poll to counter the Remington data. In their survey (June 15-17; 500 registered Louisiana voters; live interview & text) WPAi sees Landry (R) leading the candidate field with a 35 percent preference figure. Former Secretary Wilson secures the second general election runoff slot with 17 percent. In this poll, Waguespack (R) is a distant third with six percent support.

The Louisiana open governor’s primary is scheduled for Oct. 14. Since it is likely that no candidate will receive majority support, the top two finishers, regardless of political party affiliation, will advance into the general election runoff, which is on the calendar for Nov. 18. Incumbent Gov. John Bel Edwards (D), who has already endorsed Wilson, is ineligible to seek a third term.

North Carolina: Budding Dem Primary on the Horizon — It has been presumed that Attorney General Josh Stein (D) would see little in the way of Democratic primary opposition in his bid to succeed term-limited Gov. Roy Cooper (D), but such may not ultimately be the case. Democratic state Supreme Court Justice Michael Morgan made a public comment late last week that clearly suggests he is seriously considering becoming a gubernatorial candidate.

Understanding that Stein was only re-elected attorney general with just 50.1 percent of the vote in 2020, many in the Democratic Party may believe the party would fare better with a fresh face come the 2024 general election. Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson and former Congressman Mark Walker are the leading Republican candidates. This is a developing story.

Trump, Biden Ahead by Wide Margins in New Poll; Navy SEAL Declares in Montana; Redistricting News from Alabama, North Carolina

New Hampshire GOP presidential poll results / WMUR TV graphic

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, June 29, 2023

President

New Hampshire Poll: St. Anselm College Releases Regular Poll — The New Hampshire Institute of Politics of St. Anselm College published their latest regular survey of Granite State voters (June 21-23; 1,065 registered New Hampshire voters; live interview) and sees former President Donald Trump gaining strength in the Republican primary while principal challenger Gov. Ron DeSantis is losing support. The partisan primary numbers find Trump leading Florida Gov. DeSantis, 47-19 percent with no other candidate exceeding six percent support.

On the Democratic side, President Joe Biden dominates Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and author Marianne Williamson, 69-9-8 percent. These numbers exceed how the president is performing nationally. Since the state is unlikely to agree to moving their primary to comply with the new Democratic National Committee calendar, these numbers suggest that Biden could win a write-in campaign against his two intra-party challengers even if he doesn’t enter the official Democratic primary.

In hypothetical general election pairings, President Biden would lead both former President Trump and Gov. DeSantis with the same 49-40 percent spread. This data suggests there is less chance that New Hampshire will become a major general election Republican conversion target.

Senate

Montana: Retired Navy SEAL Declares Candidacy with NRSC Endorsement — Retired Navy SEAL and aerospace company CEO Tim Sheehy (R) announced his US Senate candidacy Tuesday. Immediately, the National Republican Senatorial Committee, with its chairman being Montana’s junior Sen. Steve Daines, endorsed Sheehy’s candidacy. The Montana Senate race is expected to be one of the hottest campaigns in the country as Republicans attempt to deny incumbent Sen. Jon Tester (D) a fourth term.

Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Glendive), who is also expected to join the race, responded with a Tweet saying, “congratulations to Mitch McConnell and the party bosses on getting their chosen candidate. Now Washington has two candidates – Tim Sheehy and Jon Tester – who will protect the DC cartel.” Early polling shows Rep. Rosendale beginning the race with a substantial lead, so we can expect both a hot general election campaign, and an equally tough Republican nomination contest next year in Big Sky Country.

House

Alabama: Governor Calls Special Redistricting Session — To comply with the US Supreme Court ruling on the Alabama racial gerrymandering case that went against the state, Gov. Kay Ivey (R) said that she will call a special redistricting session for the purposes of drawing a new map to comply with the decision. The legislature will report on July 17 to begin the process.

Since Alabama is a Super Tuesday state and is holding its regular primary on March 5, time is short to draw a new map and obtain the necessary judicial approvals. The ruling and new map is expected to give the Democrats an extra seat in the Alabama US House delegation that currently stands at 6R-1D.

SCOTUS: North Carolina Case Ruling — In an unsurprising 6-3 ruling, the US Supreme Court ruled against the state of North Carolina on the subject of redistricting. Legal analyst Derek Muller of the Election Law Blog describes the crux of the state’s argument as saying, “the state constitution or state judiciary cannot constrain the state legislature exercising power under the Elections Clause.” Predictably, the justices ruled that the judiciary does have the authority to involve itself in redistricting decisions but underscored that the Supreme Court has the power to restrain lower courts from taking too much power away from the legislative bodies.

Largely because the North Carolina state Supreme Court has already reconsidered its previous partisan gerrymandering decision, the high court confined itself to the judicial power question.

Blunt Rochester Announces in Delaware; Montana’s Rosendale Way Up; An NV-1 Rematch Shaping Up;
OR-5 Democratic Primary Forming

By Jim Ellis — Friday, June 23, 2023

Senate

Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester (D-Wilmington)

Delaware: Rep. Blunt Rochester Announces — As expected, Delaware at-large US Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester (D-Wilmington) officially declared her US Senate candidacy. The move became obvious when Sen. Tom Carper (D) announced his retirement in May, and as part of his address encouraged the congresswoman, a former aide and appointee when Carper was governor, to run for the seat.

Rep. Blunt Rochester, first elected in 2016, is expected to have little opposition both in the Democratic primary and general election. The Senate seat will remain in the Democratic column. There could be developing competition brewing for Blunt Rochester’s open House seat, however.

Montana: Rep. Rosendale Way Up in GOP Primary Poll — Public Policy Polling tested the Montana Republican Senate primary (June 19-20; 51 likely Montana Republican primary voters; live interview & text) and sees US Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Glendive) as the big early leader. According to the ballot test, Rep. Rosendale posts ahead of retired Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy, 64-10 percent. The congressman faced seven different Montana electorates in the past seven elections and won five times.

The National Republican Senatorial Committee leadership would prefer a different candidate since Rep. Rosendale is viewed as part of the far right flank of the Republican Conference and lost to Sen. Jon Tester (D) in the 2018 campaign, but the statewide GOP polling sample propelled him to a huge lead for a potential 2024 Senate race. Thus, whether the national Republican leadership likes it or not, Rep. Rosendale, when he announces for the Senate, must be viewed as the clear favorite to win the Republican nomination. He would then advance into the general election for a re-match with Sen. Tester, the lone Democratic statewide office holder in Montana. This is one of top three Republican conversion opportunities in the nation.

House

NV-1: Re-Match Possibility — In November, financial planner Mark Robertson (R) held Nevada Rep. Dina Titus (D-Las Vegas) to a 52-46 percent re-election victory in a district that had been drastically changed through redistricting. Many, however, viewed the result as a Republican under-performance in a district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as D+4.

Whether Robertson gets another chance to oppose Rep. Titus remains a question. He has Republican primary opposition from business consultant Ron Quince and restaurant chain owner Flemming Larsen.

All three Las Vegas Democratic seats have competitive potential. With such a slim House majority and the Alabama racial gerrymandering ruling from the Supreme Court favoring the Democratic position, the Republicans will pursue as many offensive opportunities as possible. Therefore, expect Nevada to become another hotbed of political activity in 2024.

OR-5: Democratic Primary Forming — Two weeks ago, Oregon Metro President Lynn Peterson (D) announced her entry into the Congressional District 5 Democratic primary; Wednesday, state Rep. Janelle Bynum (D-Happy Valley) filed a committee with the Federal Election Commission to join her as the perceived two top candidates. The winner will advance to challenge freshman Rep. Lori Chavez DeRemer (R-Happy Valley).

The 5th District race will be hotly contested. Chavez-DeRemer defeated Democrat Jamie McLeod-Skinner by a 51-49 percent margin in November. McLeod-Skinner, a first-time candidate in Oregon but former local office holder in California, had already defeated incumbent Rep. Kurt Schrader in the Democratic primary. She is also a potential 2024 candidate. The district carries a D+3 rating from the FiveThirtyEight data organization and is categorized as a swing district. This will be a top Democratic conversion opportunity seat and will attract national political attention.

Miami Mayor Files Presidential Committee; Presidential Candidate Favorable vs. Unfavorable Ratings;
A 4th Dem Enters California Race; Montana Gov’s Primary Challenge

By Jim Ellis — Friday, June 16, 2023

President

Miami Mayor Francis Suarez (R)

Francis Suarez: Miami Mayor Files Presidential Committee — As has been expected for some time, Miami Mayor Francis Suarez filed a presidential committee mid week with the Federal Election Commission and becomes now the tenth Republican candidate. Obviously a long shot who may be positioning himself as a potential vice presidential pick, Mayor Suarez would be attractive to Republicans as a candidate with potential national appeal to the Hispanic community.

YouGov Economist Poll: Mixed Results — The YouGov international online polling firm again conducted one of their extensive periodic surveys for The Economist publication (June 10-13; 1,500 US adults; online), and though a majority of respondents firmly believe former President Donald Trump should have been indicted over the classified documents issue, he would surprisingly still lead President Joe Biden by a percentage point in the national popular vote.

The respondents largely sour over the group of 11 tested potential presidential candidates, however. Only Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (49:30 percent favorable to unfavorable), Sen. Tim Scott (33:25 percent), and Vivek Ramaswamy (26:19 percent) found themselves with positive ratings.

Former Governor Chris Christie had the highest negative rating at 27:51 percent favorable to unfavorable. Ex-Vice President Mike Pence (36:53 percent), Sen. Joe Manchin (26:37 percent), ex-President Trump (43:53 percent), President Biden (45:52 percent), Marianne Williamson (19:24 percent), Gov. Ron DeSantis (41:46 percent), and former Ambassador Nikki Haley (33:34 percent) all followed in the upside-down category.

House

CA-45: Rep. Steel Draws Fourth Dem Challenger — Attorney Jimmy Pham became the fourth Democratic candidate to enter the 2024 congressional race hoping to challenge two-term Rep. Michelle Steel (R-Orange County) in a district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as D+5.

In addition to Pham, Garden Grove City Councilwoman Kim Nguyen, and attorneys Cheyenne Hunt and Aditya Pai are announced candidates. Community College Trustee Jay Chen, who held Rep. Steel to a 52-48 percent victory in 2022, is a potential re-match contender but has yet to make his 2024 political plans known.

Expect this to be a top Democratic target race. The 45th is one of four California Democratic seats that a Republican represents.

Governor

Montana: Gov. Gianforte to Face Primary Challenge — Without articulating a particular criticism against Gov. Greg Gianforte (R), state Rep. Tanner Smith (R-Lakeside) has announced that he will launch a Republican gubernatorial primary challenge.

Gov. Gianforte, whose job approval ratings are high, does not appear to be vulnerable to any Republican primary challenger. At this point, he would also be rated as a prohibitive favorite to win a second full term in the 2024 general election. The Montana primary is scheduled for June 4, 2024.

Allred Announces Senate Bid in Texas; No Top-Two Primary in Montana; Justice Leads in WVa.; Maloney Accepts Ambassador Appointment

By Jim Ellis — Friday, May 5, 2023

Senate

Texas: Rep. Allred Announces for Senate — As reported earlier in the week, US Rep. Colin
Allred (D-Dallas) was expected to announce a US Senate bid this week, and on Wednesday he released an announcement video to that effect. While Rep. Allred is likely the strongest Democrat the party leaders could recruit to oppose Sen. Ted Cruz (R), scoring an upset win in a Republican stronghold like Texas in a presidential election year will still be a major challenge.

Expect polling throughout the cycle to be closer than the actual ending result. Sen. Cruz has been expecting a tough challenge and is ready for a fight. Several months ago, he took himself out of presidential contention to concentrate fully on his re-election campaign. While Democrats have scored a recruitment victory here, and Texas is likely to now be their top conversion opportunity, Sen. Cruz still must be favored to win re-election.

Montana: No Top-Two Primary — Republican efforts to use the 2024 Montana Senate race as a test case for changing the state’s primary system to an all-party top-two jungle structure have failed. The legislature adjourned with the bill not moving from the state House of Representatives. The measure had previously passed the state Senate, but then was tabled in a state House committee. Another committee attempted to revive the bill, but that effort failed, and the session ended. Therefore, we will see a traditional Montana Senate primary next year.

An enacted bill would have changed next year’s Senate primary structure and only two candidates, presumably Sen. Jon Tester (D) and a Republican nominee, would have advanced into the general election.

From a partisan perspective, the idea was to eliminate the Libertarian Party from the ballot. Typically, these nominees attract about three percent of the vote, most of which is drawn from a Republican nominee. Considering Sen. Tester won the 2018 election with just a three-point margin, the Libertarian vote total did, and could again, prove significant.

West Virginia: Gov. Justice Leads in First Post-Announcement Poll — The co/efficient Republican polling firm tested the West Virginia electorate soon after Gov. Jim Justice (R) formally announced his senatorial campaign. The survey (April 24-25; 974 likely West Virginia general election voters; 753 likely West Virginia Republican primary voters; online) posts Gov. Justice as the leading candidate in the Republican primary, the general election, and in personal approval ratings.

Opposite GOP Rep. Alex Mooney (R-Charles Town), Gov. Justice would lead 45-17 percent. Advancing to the general election, the two-term state chief executive would top incumbent Sen. Joe Manchin (D), 43-29 percent. If Rep. Mooney were the Republican nominee, he would trail Sen. Manchin 30-36 percent.

Additionally, Gov. Justice is the only one of the three with a positive favorability index of 49:29 percent. This compares with a poor 27:47 percent favorable to unfavorable rating for Sen. Manchin, and 21:34 percent for Rep. Mooney.

House

NY-17: Ex-Rep. Maloney Accepts Appointment — President Biden announced that he is appointing defeated New York Democratic Congressman Sean Patrick Maloney (D) as the US Ambassador to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), which is headquartered in Paris, France. The OECD is comprised of representatives from 38 countries to develop common economic platforms and initiatives.

Maloney, even as chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), was defeated for re-election in 2022. There was some talk that he was considering returning for a re-match with freshman Rep. Mike Lawler (R-Pearl River), but this international appointment would seemingly remove him from a political run in 2024. This makes it even more likely that former Rep. Mondaire Jones (D) will declare his candidacy in the 17th District.

We can expect this campaign to become a national congressional battle and one of the keys to determining the next House majority.