Tag Archives: Missouri

First Democrat Announces in Florida Senate Race; Potential NC-13 Candidate; Landry’s Advantage in Louisiana; Ashcroft Down on Money

By Jim Ellis — July 20, 2023

Senate

Navy veteran Phil Ehr

Florida: First Democrat Announces — Democrats have not yet recruited a top candidate to challenge Sen. Rick Scott (R), but at least they now have a contender coming forward. Navy veteran Phil Ehr, who challenged Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Ft. Walton Beach) in 2020 and lost 65-34 percent, is now a US Senate candidate. While losing, Ehr did raise over $2 million, but he will need substantially more even to win the Democratic primary.

The only other challenger to Sen. Scott, who was also twice elected governor, is Republican businessman Keith Gross. It was believed that Gross could fund a significant portion of his campaign, and so far he has added $661,000 to his political treasury. Outside of his personal loan, Gross only raised $9,000 during the 2nd Quarter fundraising period. At this point, Sen. Scott is a clear favorite for renomination and re-election.

House

NC-13: New Potential GOP Candidate — State legislative analyst Jeff Hauser (R) says he is interested in exploring a congressional candidacy next year in the district that freshman Rep. Wiley Nickel (D-Cary) currently holds. Expect this seat to significantly change once the new congressional map is drawn and passes the state legislature. With the new Republican state Supreme Court likely to approve the eventual map, expect this district to become much better territory for the GOP.

Bo Hines (R), who lost in November to Nickel 52-48 percent, is said to be considering mounting a comeback. He proved, however, to be a weak candidate so look for the GOP leadership to look in a different direction once the new map is presented and approved.

Governor

Louisiana: Landry Opens Huge Dollar Advantage — On Monday, we reported that a BDPC consulting firm poll (July 6-10; 600 registered Louisiana voters; live interview) found a close ballot test result of 30-28 percent between Attorney General Jeff Landry (R) and former LA Transportation Secretary Shawn Wilson (D). The new fundraising disclosure reports show a much different picture of this developing statewide campaign.

During the 2nd Quarter, Landry raised $4.7 million and has over $9.2 million cash-on-hand. Conversely, Wilson raised only $560,000 and reports $590,000 in the bank. The closest contender to Landry is state Treasurer John Schroder (R). While raising only $220,000 for the quarter, the Schroder campaign reports $2.2 million in their campaign account. Louisiana’s all-party jungle primary is scheduled for Oct. 14 of this year. If no candidate receives majority support, a runoff between the top two finishers will be held on Nov. 18.

Missouri: Ashcroft Down on Money — While Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft, son of former Missouri Senator and US Attorney General John Ashcroft, is viewed to be the leader of the open gubernatorial Republican primary, the 2nd Quarter fundraising reports show him on the downside of the money count. In a battle of supportive PACs, Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe’s affiliated American Dream PAC raised $1.2 million as compared to the Committee for Liberty’s (Ashcroft) $290,000. St. Charles County state Sen. Bill Eigel (R-Weldon Spring), who has not yet officially announce for governor, saw his leadership committee, BILL PAC, raise over $800,000.

GOP Gov. Mike Parson is ineligible to run for a third term. State House Minority Leader Crystal Quade (D-Springfield) is the leading Democratic contender. Republicans are favored to win the open general election.

Q2 Senate Candidate Financial Filings

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, April 20, 2023

Senate

Financials: What the Numbers Show — The Daily Kos Elections website compiled the just-released second quarter Federal Election Commission campaign financial disclosure summaries for the in-cycle Senate races, and the funding reports again tell many interesting stories.

One of the first clues analysts consider is whether the quarter fundraising suggests retirement possibilities. One 2024 total, in particular, stands out as a strong possibility.

Maryland Sen. Ben Cardin (D), who has been in elective office consecutively since 1967 when counting his service in the Maryland House of Delegates, the US House, and the Senate, raised only $14,000 in the 2nd Quarter. He still maintains just under $1 million in his campaign account, however. Sen. Cardin, who will be 81 years old at the time of the next election and says he will announce his 2024 political plans shortly, now looks to be a strong retirement possibility.

Just to the north, Delaware Sen. Tom Carper (D) is also mentioned as a retirement prospect. He raised only $193,000 in the 2nd Quarter but has just over $600,000 in the bank. In an at-large state, his financial situation is not particularly low. Still, at 77 years of age at the time of the next election and having been in elective office for 47 consecutive years, retirement is certainly a possibility.

Sen. Mitt Romney (R) has also not been a proactive fundraiser, attracting only $111,000 within the quarter just ended. His cash-on-hand figure of $604,000 is also low, but Sen. Romney has the ability to raise a great deal of money in a short period, and has already filed a 2024 campaign committee with the FEC. He says he will make a final decision about whether to seek a second term “during the summer.”

A senator who has been coy about her 2024 plans is Arizona’s Kyrsten Sinema, who left the Democratic Party in December to become an Independent. Some believed there was a question about whether she would seek re-election but seeing a $2 million 2nd Quarter and just under $10 million cash-on-hand strongly suggests that the first-term Grand Canyon State senator will compete for re-election.

The most active 2nd Quarter fundraisers were Rep. Katie Porter (D-CA) at $15.5 million reported raised, but that figure includes an $11 million transfer from her existing US House committee. Her opponent in the open California Senate race, Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank), is the second-most prolific fundraiser, with $6.5 million in reported 2nd Quarter income.

Following are Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT; $5.0 million), Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ; $3.7M), Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH; $3.5M), Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI; $3.0M), and Sens. Jacky Rosen (D-NV; $2.4M), Christopher Murphy (D-CT; $2.3M), Tammy Baldwin (D-WI; $2.1M), and Sinema ($2.0M).

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Retired Army Pilot Returns for
Re-Match in PA-1; Archuleta to Retire?; Missouri Gov. Race; Denver, Houston Mayoral Races

By Jim Ellis — Monday, April 10, 2023

House

Retired Army pilot Ashley Ehasz (D)

PA-1: Nominee Returning — Retired Army pilot Ashley Ehasz (D), who fell last November to four-term Pennsylvania Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Levittown) by a 55-45 percent count, will return for a re-match, she announced late last week. The 10-point spread was the congressman’s strongest performance since he first began running for the seat in 2016.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the Philadelphia suburban district as EVEN. It is likely Democrats will want to find a stronger 2024 candidate, but Ehasz’s presence in the race suggests a primary contest will result if the party leadership decides to recruit a different contender.

CA-31: Preparing for Retirement? — California state Sen. Bob Archuleta (D-Norwalk) filed a congressional campaign committee with the Federal Election Commission last week. This is a curious move since veteran Rep. Grace Napolitano (D-Norwalk) has not announced that she is retiring. The act of filing a federal committee is not necessarily an official declaration of candidacy, but does allow the raising of federal funds.

Rep. Napolitano will be 87 years old at the time of the next election and is clearly a retirement possibility. Sen. Archuleta is now officially waiting in the wings. It is unlikely that he will launch a primary challenge against the incumbent since he would be risking his state Senate seat to do so. The 31st Congressional District is heavily Hispanic and Democratic, so any primary challenge will likely result in a double Democratic general election campaign under California’s all-party jungle primary system.

Governor

Missouri: Secretary of State Enters Governor Race — As expected, the “Show Me” state’s Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft (R), the son of former Missouri senator and US Attorney General John Ashcroft (R), announced late last week that he will enter the open 2024 governor’s race. Ashcroft was first elected to his statewide post in 2016, and re-elected in 2020. He lost his first race, however, a St. Louis-area state Senate campaign in 2014.

Gov. Mike Parson (R), who assumed the governorship in June of 2018 after then-Gov. Eric Greitens (R) was forced to resign and then was elected to a full term in 2020, is ineligible to seek a second full term.

Already in the open Republican primary are Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe and state Sen. Bill Eigel (R-St. Charles County), thus guaranteeing a nomination fight. No Democrat has yet declared his or her candidacy. Republicans will be favored to hold the position in the general election.

Cities

Denver Mayor: Runoff Set — Last Tuesday’s open mayoral primary in Denver that featured 16 candidates attempting to succeed retiring Mayor Michael Hancock (D), who is ineligible to run for a third term, has now been officially decided. The two candidates advancing to the November runoff election are both Democrats.

The official general election contenders will be former state senator and ex-gubernatorial candidate Mike Johnston and ex-Denver Chamber of Commerce CEO and former mayoral chief of staff Kelly Brough. Brough served as then-Mayor John Hickenlooper’s top aide. Hickenlooper is now, of course, Colorado’s current junior US senator and a former governor and presidential candidate. A competitive general election is expected.

Houston Mayor: New Candidate Emerging — Former Houston mayoral candidate Tony Buzbee, who lost the 2019 runoff to Mayor Sylvester Turner, 55-45 percent after spending $12 million of his own money, may enter the 2023 campaign. Buzbee was quoted as saying he could spend $15-50 million more of his own money to win the election. His stated belief is that he is the only candidate who could defeat US Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Houston), who is now an official mayoral contender.

Candidate filing does not conclude until August, so this open race still has much time to solidify. Mayor Turner is ineligible to seek a third term and is openly considering entering the 2024 Senate race against incumbent Republican Sen. Ted Cruz.

PA Sen. Casey Recovering from Cancer Surgery; WV’s Justice Topping Sen. Manchin; Wilson Likely Louisiana Governor Candidate; Missouri Poll Favors Former Senator’s Son

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Feb. 17, 2023

Senate

Pennsylvania Sen. Bob Casey, Jr. (D) recovering from cancer surgery.

Pennsylvania: Sen. Bob Casey Jr. Recovering from Cancer Surgery — Sen. Bob Casey, Jr’s. (D) office staff released a statement indicating that the senator’s surgery for prostate cancer is complete and doctors at least preliminarily believe he will need no further treatment. Sen. Casey previously said he hopes to run for re-election to a third term so long as his health responds. With early indications being positive, it is likely the senator will be back on the ballot in 2024.

West Virginia: New Poll Finds Gov. Jim Justice Topping Sen. Manchin — Mountain State Gov. Jim Justice (R) has been leaning towards challenging Sen. Joe Manchin (D) next year, and a new poll will likely add fuel to his fire. The Tarrance Group, polling for the Senate Leadership Fund (Feb. 5-7; 60 registered West Virginia voters, including an over-sample of 100 likely Republican primary voters; live interview), projects Gov. Justice leading Sen. Manchin by a substantial 10-point margin, 52-42 percent.

Testing the other known potential Republican candidates, Attorney General Patrick Morrisey and US Rep. Alex Mooney (R-Charles Town), the results prove to be very different. Against each of these Republicans, Sen. Manchin holds a lead. If AG Morrisey were to return for a re-match from their 2018 campaign (Manchin won 50-46 percent), the senator would be staked to a reversed 52-42 percent advantage. He would fare better opposite Rep. Mooney. In this pairing, Sen. Manchin’s margin would be an even stronger 55-40 percent.

At this point, Rep. Mooney has announced his Senate candidacy. Morrisey says he is looking at the Senate race, along with governor, Rep. Mooney’s open congressional seat, or running for re-election. Gov. Justice is reportedly nearing a decision.

Governor

Louisiana: Transportation Sec Shawn Wilson Resigning; Likely Gov Candidate — Louisiana Department of Transportation Secretary Shawn Wilson (D) announced that he is resigning his position largely with the intent of running for governor later this year. It appears he is doing so with Gov. John Bel Edwards’ (D) tacit endorsement. Gov. Edwards said of Wilson, “we would be very well served to have Shawn Wilson as our next governor.” Edwards is ineligible to seek a third term. At this point, Wilson would be the lone Democrat in the field.

Among Republicans, attorney general and former Congressman Jeff Landry and state Treasurer John Schroder are announced candidates. US Rep. Garret Graves (R-Baton Rouge) is another potential contender. The field won’t become finalized until Aug. 10. The jungle primary is scheduled for Oct. 14 with a runoff on Nov. 18 if no candidate receives majority support in the first vote.

Missouri: New Poll Favors Former Senator’s Son — The Remington Research Group released a survey of what will be an open 2024 Show Me State governor’s race. The study (Feb. 8-9; 820 presumed likely Missouri Republican primary voters; interactive voice response system) projects state Attorney General Jay Ashcroft, son of former US senator and US Attorney General John Ashcroft, leading the open GOP primary to replace term-limited Gov. Mike Parson (R) in the 2024 election.

The ballot test finds Ashcroft drawing 28Wilson support, more than tripling that of Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe who posts nine percent preference. The eventual Republican gubernatorial nominee will begin the general election campaign as a clear favorite.

Schmitt Up Comfortably in Missouri;
Tight Election Evolving in AZ-1; Whitmer Still Leading in Michigan

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Aug. 30, 2022

Senate

Missouri AG Eric Schmitt (R)

Missouri: GOP’s Eric Schmitt Up Comfortably — International online pollster YouGov tested the Missouri Senate race, one of the first we’ve seen since Attorney General Eric Schmitt won the Republican primary on Aug. 2 and philanthropist Trudy Busch Valentine prevailed on the Democratic side. The YouGov poll (released Aug. 25; Aug. 8-16; 900 likely Missouri general election voters) posts Schmitt to a double-digit 49-38 percent advantage. This race, another must win for the national GOP, should be rated as Likely Republican.

House

AZ-1: Tight General Election Evolving — Arizona’s new 1st Congressional District was crafted as somewhat more favorable to the Democrats, but still a decidedly Republican seat (FiveThirtyEight rating: new AZ-1: R+7; former AZ-6: R+13; 25 percent new territory). Therefore, it comes as no surprise that a new Normington Petts survey for the Jevin Hodge (D) campaign (Aug. 15-18; 500 likely AZ-1 general election voters; live interview & text) sees the 2022 congressional race as a dead heat, with Hodge and incumbent Rep. David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills) each receiving 47 percent support.

The poll finds Rep. Schweikert, who before the 2020 election accepted 11 ethics violations fines for misuse of his congressional office and campaign finance related issues, posting a poor 26:46 percent personal favorability rating. The additional fact that the congressman received only 43.3 percent in this year’s Republican primary against two opponents, and may well have been defeated if only one individual had challenged him, suggests that this should be a race of concern for the Republican leadership.

Governor

Kansas: Independent Qualifies; Poll Result — Northeastern Kansas state Sen. Dennis Pyle (I-Hiawatha) qualified for the ballot as an independent gubernatorial candidate on Friday. Pyle, who was elected as a Republican but became an Independent in further evidence of the deep divide between Kansas conservative and centrist Republicans, is getting support from an improbable source.

Some in the Democratic Party were active in helping further the petition signature process that allowed him to qualify for the general election. Sen. Pyle attacks GOP nominee Derek Schmidt, the state’s attorney general, as being insufficiently conservative, while the Democrats want Pyle to take conservative votes away from the GOP nominee to help incumbent Gov. Laura Kelly (D).

Four years ago, Gov. Kelly won her office with plurality support (48 percent), and her likely path to re-election will again be with less than a majority. The latest released survey, from Battleground Connect (Aug. 8-10; 1,074 likely Kansas general election voters; text) found Schmidt leading Gov. Kelly, 48-45 percent, with Pyle attracting only two percent support. This poll was conducted, however, prior to the latter man qualifying as an official November contender.

Michigan: More Conflicting Polls — Around the country, we have been seeing a number of places report conflicting polling data. Such is the case last week in the Michigan governor’s race. Though both EPIC-MRA, polling for the Michigan Information & Research Service, and the Trafalgar Group find Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) leading GOP nominee Tudor Dixon, the margins are quite different.

EPIC (Aug. 18-23; 600 likely Michigan general election voters; live interview) posts Gov. Whitmer to a double-digit, 50-39 percent advantage. But The Trafalgar Group, surveying basically within the same time realm (Aug. 22-25; 1,080 likely Michigan voters; multiple sampling techniques) sees the governor holding a lead just outside the polling margin of error, 49-45 percent. This example again reminds us of the volatility that can occur from pollsters using different techniques and weighting methodology.

Big Primary Results

By Jim Ellis — Aug. 3, 2022

Primary Results

Venture capitalist Blake Masters

Arizona — Venture capitalist Blake Masters, armed with an endorsement from former President Trump who remains a strong force in Republican primaries, defeated businessman Jim Lamon and Attorney General Mark Brnovich with a 39-29-18 percent vote margin with about 80 percent of the expected vote tabulated. Masters now advances to the general election to face a tough political opponent in Sen. Mark Kelly (D).

In the open governor’s race, Trump-endorsed former news anchor Kari Lake has a very slight lead of approximately 9,000 votes over Arizona University Regent Karrin Taylor Robson, who both former Vice President Mike Pence and term-limited Gov. Doug Ducey supported. The outstanding 21 percent of the vote, however, including that from the most populous Maricopa County where about 62 percent of the state’s residents live, makes it unclear as to who will prevail when all of the ballots are counted. The eventual winner will face Secretary of State Katie Hobbs, who scored a landslide 73 percent victory in the Democratic primary.

In House races, Rep. David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills) looks to have won re-nomination in the new Scottsdale-anchored 1st District, but in unimpressive form. With 82 percent of the expected vote counted at this writing, Rep. Schweikert only has 43 percent of the Republican vote.

In the very different 2nd District that now will favor a Republican candidate as opposed to Democratic incumbent Tom O’Halleran (D-Sedona), retired Navy SEAL Eli Crane, another Trump-endorsed candidate, has defeated state Rep. Walt Blackman (R-Snowflake) to win the GOP nomination. At this writing, 80 percent of the expected vote has been counted and Crane has a nine-percentage point lead, which should be more than enough to clinch the win. A O’Halleran-Crane general election now becomes one of the top GOP conversion target races in the nation.

The new competitive 4th District where Rep. Greg Stanton (D-Phoenix) sees his partisan index drop to just D+1 according to the FiveThirtyEight data organization, saw a surprise winner in the Republican primary. Though former Phoenix Suns executive Tanya Wheeless was attracting the most media attention, the district’s GOP electorate has instead chosen local businessman Kelly Cooper as the party nominee. With approximately 80 percent of the vote counted, Cooper has a five-percentage point lead. He looks to be a strong general election candidate, and this will be a real race in the fall.

In the Tucson-anchored open 6th District, from which Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D-Tucson) is retiring, former gubernatorial aide and Hispanic Chamber of Commerce executive Juan Ciscomani, as expected, easily captured the Republican nomination. He will now face former state Sen. Kirsten Engel who was a strong winner on the Democratic side. The general election will yield a tight political district, but the area and national political prognosticators promote Ciscomani as the favorite to win the general election and convert this southeastern Arizona seat for the GOP.

Michigan — The big story in the Michigan primary and perhaps the overall national primary result among the five states voting was the defeat of freshman Rep. Peter Meijer (R-Grand Rapids) in the GOP nomination campaign. He fell 52-48 percent to former Housing & Urban Development Department official John Gibbs who had former President Trump’s endorsement. The new 3rd District leans Democratic, Gibbs faces a tough challenge against 2020 party nominee Hillary Scholten (D) in the coming general election.

The other Michigan congressional defeat came in the Democratic pairing from the state’s suburban Detroit 11th District. There, Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Rochester Hills) scored a 60-40 percent win over fellow Democratic Rep. Andy Levin (D-Bloomfield Township), as late polling predicted would occur.

Missouri — Another of the key Aug. 2 primary races ended as projected. Late in what had been a tightly fought campaign, Attorney General Eric Schmitt looked to have broken away from the candidate pack and scored a 46-22-19-5 percent open Republican primary victory over US Rep. Vicky Hartzler (R-Harrisonville), ex-Gov. Eric Greitens, and US Rep. Billy Long (R-Springfield), respectively.

Schmitt now becomes a strong favorite in the general election to succeed retiring Sen. Roy Blunt (R). In November, he will face philanthropist Trudy Busch Valentine, a member of the Anheuser Busch beer family. She defeated Iraq War veteran Lucas Kunce, 43-38 percent, to capture the Democratic nomination, overcoming a heavy negative attack campaign.

The two US House members, Reps. Hartzler and Long, left open a pair of solidly Republican congressional districts that featured crowded Republican primaries. Former news anchorman and conservative commentator Mark Alford and state Sen. Eric Burlison (R-Battlefield/Springfield) were strong winners in the 4th and 7th District congressional nomination contests. Both men have effectively punched their tickets to Washington, as each should easily win the general election.

Washington — Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA), despite earlier polling suggesting a competitive re-election race, easily placed first in the state’s jungle primary. Though only about half of the vote is tabulated under Washington’s all-mail election system that allows ballots to be received and counted after the election, it is clear that Sen. Murray placed first in the multi-candidate field with 54 percent of the vote.

In second place, as expected, and also advancing into the general election is veterans’ activist and former nurse Tiffany Smiley (R) who garnered 32 percent of the votes tabulated at this writing. It appears that Sen. Murray is now a heavy favorite for re-election to a sixth term.

The more watched races occurred in congressional districts 3 and 4. It appears that both Reps. Jaime Herrera Beutler (R-Battle Ground) and Dan Newhouse (R-Sunnyside) will advance into the general election, but with low vote percentages. Each voted to impeach former President Trump.

From the Vancouver area anchored 3rd CD, Democratic businesswoman Marie Perez, taking advantage of the badly split Republican vote, looks to have secured first position from the jungle primary and will advance into the general election. Rep. Herrera Beutler, with just 24.5 percent of the tabulated vote, which is from 57 percent of the expected total, looks to have enough of a cushion over retired Army officer and Trump-endorsed contender Joe Kent (R) despite her low percentage. The total Republican vote, however, spread among four GOP candidates is approximately 63 percent, which portends well for Rep. Herrera Beutler in the general election.

In Washington’s middle-state 4th CD, incumbent Newhouse is holding first place, but with only 27 percent of the jungle primary vote. It appears that he and Democratic businessman Doug White will advance into the general election in what is the Evergreen State’s most Republican district. Trump-endorsed candidate Loren Culp (R), the former town police chief who was a finalist in the 2020 gubernatorial election, placed third and will be eliminated. The cumulative Republican vote here is 74 percent, so Rep. Newhouse, facing a Democratic opponent in the general election, should be safe for re-election.

Today’s Primaries: Latest Numbers for
Missouri, Arizona, Kansas, Michigan

By Jim Ellis — Aug. 2, 2022

Senate

Missouri AG Eric Schmitt (R)

Missouri: AG Eric Schmitt in Driver’s Seat — The new Survey USA poll conducted for eight Missouri television news outlets (July 24-27; 1,981 registered Missouri voters; 787 likely Republican primary voters; 547 likely Democratic primary voters; online) sees Attorney General Eric Schmitt establishing himself as the clear leader heading into the Republican primary vote today to determine a successor to retiring Sen. Roy Blunt (R).

The S-USA numbers find Schmitt holding a 28-20-13-8 percent advantage over scandal-tainted resigned Gov. Eric Greitens, and US Reps. Vicky Hartzler (R-Harrisonville) and Billy Long (R-Springfield). These results suggest an improvement for Greitens and a severe dip in support for Rep. Hartzler.

The Remington Research Group, however, while projecting AG Schmitt with a strong lead, doesn’t detect the Hartzler fall. The RRG poll (July 28; 818 likely Missouri Republican primary voters; interactive voice response system) sees Schmitt holding a 34-22-18 percent advantage over Rep. Hartzler and Greitens.

For the Democrats, despite hard attacks coming against her, philanthropist Trudy Busch Valentine, a member of the Anheuser Busch beer family, leads Iraq War veteran Lucas Kunce by a whopping 40-14 percent margin. Kunce has raised substantial money for this race — more than $4.7 million, according to his pre-primary July 13 financial disclosure report — but most of that money has been recently spent on attack ads against Valentine. The fact that he is going hard negative at the end suggests his internal polling is producing similar figures to those of Survey USA.

More Missouri: Republicans Up in New Gen Election Poll — Survey USA tested the Show Me State electorate (July 24-27; 787 likely Missouri voters; online) and sees the Republican candidates holding an early general election edge. If AG Schmitt wins the Republican nomination tonight, he would lead Democratic polling leader Trudy Busch Valentine, a philanthropist and member of the Anheuser Busch beer family, 36-30 percent with Independent John Wood drawing nine percent support. Additionally, AG Schmitt would top Kunce (D) and Wood, 37-27-10 percent.

Should US Rep. Vicky Hartzler (R-Harrisonville) become the party nominee, she would begin with a general election advantage of just 32-31-9 percent over Valentine and Wood, but a much larger 34-24-12 percent if Kunce and Wood were her November opponents. Though apparently unlikely, if the resigned scandal-tainted former Gov. Greitens scores an upset win tonight, he too would have a lead over Kunce, 31-26 percent with Wood recording 12 percent support. Opposite Valentine, she and Greitens would begin on even footing, a 31-31 percent tie, with Wood increasing his base to 13 percent.

Arizona: Masters Now Well Ahead in Last Polls — The final two polls for the Arizona Senate primary have been released in preparation for today’s primary. Both surveys, from Rasmussen Reports and OH Predictive Insights, find Trump-endorsed venture capitalist Blake Masters developing a lead beyond the polling margin of error in the battle for the Republican nomination.

Rasmussen Reports (July 27-28; 710 likely Arizona Republican primary voters; live interview & online) projects Masters to a 31-19-16-10 percent advantage over businessman Jim Lamon, Attorney General Mark Brnovich, and retired Arizona Adjutant General Mick McGuire. OH Predictive Insights (July 27; 502 likely Arizona Republican primary voters; live interview & peer-to-peer text) sees a similar result. According to the OH data, Masters’ holds an even more substantial lead over Lamon and Brnovich, 36-21-12 percent, with Gen. McGuire dropping below the 10 percent threshold.

Arizona Again: Sen. Kelly Breaking with General Election Advantage — Beacon Research, polling for the Environmental Voter Project (July 5-20; 504 likely Arizona general election voters from a series of polls covering four states) tested the general election potential pairings and sees Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly (D) holding a 51-39 percent lead over venture capitalist Blake Masters, who leads the closing Republican primary polls in a nominating election that will be decided tonight. Faring just slightly better, businessman Jim Lamon would trail the senator, 40-50 percent. If Attorney General Mark Brnovich were to score an upset in tonight’s Republican primary, he, too, would land in the same realm as the others, trailing Sen. Kelly, 40-51 percent.

Governor

Arizona: Kari Lake Poised for Victory — The Rasmussen Reports and OH Predictive Insights survey research firms also released numbers for the open Republican gubernatorial primary (see Arizona Senate above). The two pollsters find former news anchor Kari Lake, who long ago was endorsed by former President Trump, ahead well beyond the polling margin of error — 43-34 percent (Rasmussen) and 51-33 percent (OH Predictive Insights).

Lake’s opponent is Arizona University Regent Karrin Taylor Robson, who both former Vice President Mike Pence and outgoing Gov. Doug Ducey publicly support. For the Democrats, Secretary of State Katie Hobbs looks like a sure bet to win the party nomination tonight.

Michigan: Tudor Dixon Running Strong — The Trafalgar Group released their final Republican primary poll in Michigan before today’s primary, and while they find a change in order from second through fifth positions, online radio talk show host Tudor Dixon appears poised to capture the Republican gubernatorial nomination. According to the Trafalgar survey (July 26-28; 1,098 likely Michigan Republican primary voters; mixed sample-gathering tactics), Dixon holds a 28-19-17-14 percent advantage over chiropractor Garrett Soldano, and businessmen Kevin Rinke and Ryan Kelley. Today’s winner advances to face Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) in the general election.

States

Kansas: Abortion Measure on Ballot — Kansas voters go to the polls today to choose nominees for the fall election, and while there isn’t much serious candidate competition within the parties for the key posts, the electorate will voice its opinion on the first abortion-related ballot proposition since Roe v. Wade was overturned. Polling suggests the pro-life side has a slight lead on the measure, which would clarify that the Kansas constitution does not recognize abortion access as a right. This vote, regardless of the outcome, will generate much political discussion in the coming days.