Tag Archives: Minnesota

Races Take Shape in Three States After No-Surprises Primaries

Connecticut

Not much competitive action in the Connecticut primary occurred last night, as none of the five House incumbents even faced a challenger. In the governor’s race former US Ambassador Tom Foley (R), who held Gov. Dan Malloy (D) to a 6,404 vote victory four years ago – which proved to be the closest governor’s election in the entire country during that year – scored a 56-44 percent Republican primary victory over state Senate Minority Leader John McKinney. The latter is the son of the late former US Rep. Stewart McKinney (R-CT-4).

The Foley victory sets up a re-match between he and Gov. Malloy, in a race that could become exciting. Malloy’s job approval numbers have been down, revealing discernible weakness, and some early polling actually puts the challenger slightly ahead. The state’s strong Democratic nature is Malloy’s strongest asset as the general election officially begins.

Minnesota

In the Senate race, as expected, finance executive Mike McFadden cruised to a landslide victory in the Republican primary, Continue reading >

Another Primary Today

Connecticut

The only race of interest on the Nutmeg State board today is the Republican gubernatorial primary. With Gov. Dan Malloy (D) registering poor job approval numbers and even trailing in some polls, the Republican nomination may be worth having even in this Democratic state. In 2010, former US Ambassador Tom Foley (R) came within 6,404 votes of defeating Malloy in the closest gubernatorial contest of the 2010 election cycle.

Amb. Foley returns for a re-match and is favored over state Senate Minority Leader John McKinney (R), the son of the late former Rep. Stewart McKinney (R-CT-4). McKinney is running a spirited campaign but will likely fall short. Should Foley win the nomination, the general election will be competitive.

All five incumbent House members are seeking re-election, and all are favorites to win re-election. The only moderately competitive race features a 2010 re-match of a 53-47 percent contest between Rep. Jim Himes (D-CT-4) and former state legislator Dan Debicella (R).

Minnesota

Sen. Al Franken’s (D) numbers have been relatively good as he works toward his first Continue reading >

Franken Tops 50 Percent – With an Asterisk

In a great many election years, a surprising Senate candidate often comes from nowhere at the beginning of the cycle to score an upset win. The 2010 Republican landslide, for example, produced Wisconsin businessman Ron Johnson (R), a virtual unknown at the campaign’s outset, who would eventually unseat then-Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI). Former North Dakota Attorney General Heidi Heitkamp (D), viewed as a heavy underdog to then-at-large Rep. Rick Berg (R) when their two-way contest began, overcame an early polling deficit to claim her Senate seat in the presidential election year of 2012.

In looking at the 2014 field of candidates, many people were speculating that the under-the-radar candidate best possibly positioned to score an upset is Minnesota businessman Mike McFadden (R) who is challenging first-term Sen. Al Franken (D). Though Franken has not yet appeared in a politically endangered position, we must remember that his 2008 campaign was so close that it took nine months to finally determine that the former actor-comedian scored a 312-vote victory (from more than 2.88 million ballots cast) over then-Sen. Norm Coleman (R). Additionally, the Continue reading >

NRCC Spending Targets Perceived Opportunity; Polls Show a Surly N.C. Electorate

The National Republican Congressional Committee just released their upcoming media buys, which total $18 million across 26 different districts. Much more will be spent, but this opening public salvo provides us a window into where the committee sees opportunity or the need to defend.

The top incumbent defense is found in Colorado’s 6th District, where three-term Rep. Mike Coffman (R) faces former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff (D) in a battle where the combined candidate fundraising total already exceeds $6 million. The NRCC bought media time in the Denver broadcast market worth $3.3 million.

The 6th District race is turning into the most expensive congressional campaign in the country. Located in the eastern and northeastern Denver suburbs, the 6th is now a marginal political district that is beginning to trend more Democratic despite it electing a Republican congressman. Coffman was re-elected in a post-redistricting 2012 campaign, but with only 48 percent of the vote. The midterm Continue reading >

An Array of Surprises Lining up for Incumbents

On the heels of House Majority Leader Eric Cantor’s stunning Republican primary loss last week in Virginia, a series of new polls and developments suggest further surprises could be on the political horizon …

LA-5

First, in Louisiana, scandal-tainted Rep. Vance McAllister (R-LA-5), who announced that he would not seek a second term after being caught in an extra-marital affair, stated in a local radio interview this week that he is having second thoughts about retiring and is now leaning “55-45” in favor of running again. This development certainly merits further attention.

State Sen. Neil Riser (R), whom McAllister defeated in the 2013 special election after then-Rep. Rodney Alexander (R) resigned, has not yet committed to the race but is certainly leaning toward running based upon his public comments. The Louisiana filing deadline, because the jungle primary runs concurrently with the November general election, isn’t until Aug. 22, so much time remains for both men, and others, to finally decide upon their 2014 electoral Continue reading >

Virginia’s “Firehouse” Primary Tomorrow; Other Primary Developments

A congressional nomination will be decided tomorrow in the Washington, DC suburbs of Northern Virginia. Expectations suggest a limited number of Republican voters will participate in what is termed a “firehouse” primary.

The characteristics of such a voting event are unique. First, only 11 polling places will be open throughout the entire district: just one apiece in Clarke, Frederick, and Prince William Counties, and in the cities of Manassas, Manassas Park, and Winchester. Fairfax County will feature two polling locations, and Loudoun County, a locality housing more than 350,000 residents, will have only three. Instead of voting in one’s own neighborhood as is normally the case, individuals will have to travel, in some instances more than 20 miles, and stand in what could be a long line because there are so few polling places. Thus, participating in this election will take a much greater commitment from every voter than in normal primaries.
Continue reading >

Money Shows Who the Real Challengers Are

The Federal Election Commission has finally published the 4th quarter 2013 House financial numbers, and through the reports we can begin to ascertain the challenger candidates who are going to put forth serious political efforts later this election year.

Some who were predicted to be strong contenders are proving such:

• In Arizona, former Air Force officer Martha McSally (R), who lost to Rep. Ron Barber (D-AZ-2) by just under 2,500 votes in 2012, out-raised the congressman by just over $63,000 in the 4th quarter.

• Democratic former Colorado state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff outpaced incumbent Rep. Mike Coffman (R-CO-6) by $45,000. Both have posted highly impressive off-year financial numbers. Each Continue reading >