Tag Archives: Michigan

The Third Hot State

Michigan Congressional Map / To see interactive map, go to: Dave’s Redistricting App, Michigan

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Dec. 12, 2025

US House

While the most recent attention for flipping the US House has been devoted to the redistricting changes in California and Texas, a third state that did not redistrict will have an equivalent effect upon the 2026 national US House picture.

The Wolverine State of Michigan will be one of the hottest political states in the country for the 2026 election from the top of the ballot to the bottom. Because of the domain’s later April 21 candidate filing deadline and Aug. 4 partisan primary schedule, the early national political focus has been elsewhere, but such does not diminish Michigan’s importance as a ‘26 electoral player.

At the top of the ticket, and for the first time in the modern political era, Michigan will host an open Governor and Senate race in the same election cycle. In the House races, we could see major competition in five of the state’s 13 congressional districts. One of those CDs is open, and two others feature freshman members seeking their first re-election.

The Governor’s race will be unique in that it not only projects to be close, but three-term former Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan running as an Independent instead of a Democrat means we will see a competitive statewide campaign not just between two candidates, but three.

At this point, it appears that Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson and Rep. John James (R-Farmington Hills) will be the respective Democratic and Republican gubernatorial nominees. Incumbent Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) is ineligible to compete for a third term, but we are likely to see more of her as a probable 2028 presidential candidate.

Sen. Gary Peters (D) retiring after two terms has made the Michigan open Senate campaign one of the most competitive in the country and may be the Republicans’ best chance to convert a Democratic seat.

The latest published poll, from Mitchell Research & Communications (Nov. 18-21; 616 likely Michigan general election voters), projects Republican former Rep. Mike Rogers to small leads each over Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham), state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak), and former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed (D). The latter three are already embroiled in a close primary that won’t be decided until Aug. 4.

The lateness of the Michigan primary is another break for Rogers since he is the prohibitive favorite for the Republican nomination and can stockpile resources for the general election.

The five competitive races that will have a major effect upon which party controls the next House majority begins in western Michigan with Districts 3 and 4.

In the Grand Rapids anchored 3rd District, which is rated as Lean Democratic (Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean: 50.2D – 46.6R), Rep. Hillary Scholten (D-Grand Rapids), after briefly considering a Senate run, will seek a third term. Republicans don’t yet have a strong candidate capable of converting the seat, but this district is a top GOP recruitment priority.

In the 4th District, veteran Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Holland), who seriously tested the US Senate waters before turning back under GOP party leadership pressure, has not yet officially announced that he will seek re-election in what again promises to be a competitive general election. In 2024, Huizenga won with a 55-43 percent majority against a weak opponent whom he outspent by a 3:1 ratio.

The Dave’s Redistricting App (DRA) partisan lean for CD-4 is 51.8R – 45.1D meaning the Republicans have a clear advantage but a strong Democrat would have a credible chance of securing an upset victory. Should Huizenga decide to retire, this race will likely go into toss-up mode. Democrats have four announced candidates including state Sen. Sean McCann (D-Kalamazoo), who is already polling close to Huizenga.

The area encompassing the cities of Flint, Lansing, and the northern Detroit suburbs will feature potentially the three hottest Michigan US House campaigns.

In the Lansing anchored 7th District, freshman Rep. Tom Barrett (R-Charlotte) was the only 2024 candidate to convert an open seat. He will now defend his position within a hot political climate in what promises to be one of the top national congressional campaigns. Six Democrats have announced their candidacies and the leading contender for the party nomination appears to be former US Ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink. The DRA partisan lean for this toss-up seat is 49.3D – 47.9R.

The Flint-anchored 8th CD saw Democrat Kristen McDonald Rivet (D), then a sitting state Senator, defeat three-time GOP congressional candidate Paul Junge by a 51-45 percent margin. The DRA partisan lean of 51.0D – 46.2R, however, suggests the race could have been a bit closer. Republicans have yet to file a top contender, but this contest will again be close and is, like MI-3, at the top of the GOP candidate recruitment list.

Rep. James departing the 10th District to run for Governor leaves what could become one of the closest open seat races in the country. The DRA partisan lean here is 49.5D – 47.9R which has led to two close James’ victories.

Both parties already have five announced candidates. Republicans feature Mike Bouchard Jr., whose father is the Oakland County Sheriff and a former statewide candidate, while Democrats see former US Commerce Department Eric Chung and Pontiac Mayor Tim Greimel as their current top candidates.

Potential Republican contenders include former Congressman Mike Bishop and ex-gubernatorial candidate Kevin Rinke. Much will happen in MI-10 before the filing deadline as the candidates and potential candidates continue to test the political waters.

Regardless of how the national redistricting wars end, the US House majority will likely come down to just a few seats. It is clear that Michigan will play a pivotal role in determining which party will ultimately claim control of the House chamber at the beginning of 2027.

NJ Rep. Coleman to Retire; Rogers Up in Michigan; Allred Down in Texas

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Nov. 11, 2025

A congressional retirement announcement from New Jersey, ex-US Rep. Mike Rogers (R) taking the lead in a new Michigan Senate general election poll, and a Texas Senate survey that finds 2024 US Senate nominee and ex-Congressman Colin Allred again trailing in the Democratic primary, are outlined in this round up. These are the top political stories coming from the early part of the Veterans Day weekend. Also, overnight, Republican House Budget Committee Chairman Jodey Arrington (TX-19) announced that he will not seek re-election in 2026. Arrington has served for nearly a decade in the US House. More on his retirement in an upcoming post.

NJ-12

New Jersey Rep. Rep. Bonnie Watson Coleman (NJ-12)

Yesterday, saying “it’s time to pass the torch,” six-term Rep. Bonnie Watson Coleman (D-Ewing Township/Trenton), 80, announced that she will not seek re-election next year.

Prior to her election to the US House in 2014, she served 17 years in the New Jersey General Assembly, four years as Majority Leader. From 2002-06, Watson Coleman chaired the New Jersey Democratic Party.

The Garden State’s 12th District, which includes the capital city of Trenton, Princeton University; and North, East, and South Brunswick; is reliably Democratic. The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 56.5D – 43.5R partisan lean.

The central New Jersey district was at one time a Republican domain but redistricting and a change in voting patterns have yielded Democratic representation since the beginning of 1999. Therefore, Rep. Watson Coleman’s successor will almost assuredly come from winning what promises to be a hotly contested Democratic primary.

The Watson Coleman retirement means 39 seats will be open in 2026, not counting the CDs headed to special elections in Tennessee and Texas, along with New Jersey’s 11th District seat when Gov-Elect Mikie Sherrill (D) resigns from the House.

From the group of 2026 open seat members, Rep. Watson Coleman becomes the 15th Democrat not to seek re-election and the 11th to retire from politics. The other 28 are seeking a different office or moving to a congressional district other than the one they currently represent.

Michigan Senate

The Rosetta Stone polling organization released the results of an independent poll that finds Republican former Rep. Mike Rogers polling ahead of all three Democratic US Senate contenders.

Rogers, who served seven terms in the House before retiring, returned to enter elective politics with his run for the Senate in 2024. In an open-seat battle with then-Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D), Rogers came within 19,006 votes from just under 5.6 million votes cast of winning the race, a percentage margin of 48.6 – 48.3.

The Rosetta Stone poll, released over the weekend, (Oct. 23-25; 637 likely Michigan general election voters) finds Rogers, who is virtually unopposed for the Republican nomination, ahead beyond the polling margin of error individually against each of the Democrats: Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham), state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak), and former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed.

Opposite Rep. Stevens, Rogers leads 47-40 percent. If Sen. McMorrow was his opponent, the Rogers edge would be a similar 46-39 percent. The Rogers’ advantage grows if El-Sayed becomes his general election opponent. Under this scenario, the former Congressman posts a 45-31 percent margin.

Other polls have shown this race much closer, but this is the first publicly released statewide poll since June.

Rosetta Stone tested the Democratic Senate primary, but the sample size of only 287 likely Democratic primary voters indicates the results should be considered statistically insignificant in a state the size of Michigan.

Texas Senate

New polling in the Texas Senate Democratic primary again shows trouble for 2024 Senate nominee Colin Allred.

The Impact Research survey conducted for the James Talarico Senate campaign (Oct. 23-29; 836 likely Texas Democratic primary voters; live interview & text) finds state Rep. Talarico taking a 48-42 percent lead over Allred.

In a late September survey from the University of Houston and Texas Southern University, the academic pollsters found Allred lagging in last place if the Democratic field consisted of he, Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Dallas), former El Paso Rep. and statewide candidate Beto O’Rourke, and state Rep. Talarico. For her part, Rep. Crockett says she is considering the Senate race. Crockett has led several Democratic statewide polls.

It has been known for some time that the Republican Senate primary would be a hard-fought contest between four-term incumbent Sen. John Cornyn, Attorney General Ken Paxton, and recently entered Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston). Now, however, analyzing the available polling data leads to the conclusion that the Democratic primary appears just as competitive as the Republican contest.

Competitive Senate Finance – Part II

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Oct. 22, 2025

Senate

Continuing from yesterday’s update, the Federal Election Commission has released new Senate campaign finance numbers, which help us preview the resource standing of the key 2026 US Senate contests. Today’s installment covers the most competitive contests from Massachusetts through Texas.

Massachusetts

Just in the past week we see a Democratic primary emerging between Bay State Sen. Ed Markey and Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Salem). Both men have equivalent cash reserves ($2.7M for Markey; Moulton: $2.1M) but it is clear that Sen. Markey begins as the favorite.

Rep. Moulton will try to make the incumbent’s age (Markey will be 80 years old at the time of the next election) an issue, but it is unlikely that such an attack will dissuade a majority of Democrats from voting for the veteran politician who first came to Congress in 1976.

This primary challenge is a very long shot but the Massachusetts primary cycle is lengthy, and much can change. The nomination election is not scheduled until Sept. 1, 2026.

Michigan

The open Michigan Senate race will be one of the top national contests next year. Republicans have successfully given former US Representative and 2024 US Senate nominee Mike Rogers a clear path to the nomination which helps solve one of their key past problem areas: fundraising. The fact that Rogers does not have to spend much to secure the nomination means virtually all fundraising assets will be directly applied to the general election. At this point, Rogers holds $2.7 million in his campaign account.

The Democrats, on the other hand, are embroiled in a tough primary that won’t be decided until Aug. 4. The three major candidates have equivalent resources. Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham) holds $2.6 million, state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak) reports $1.4 million cash-on-hand, and former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed has also proven himself a strong fundraiser. His campaign account reports $1.8 in available resources.

The Democratic primary is a toss-up at this point. Expect a tough campaign before a nominee is crowned and financial resources will be exhausted. Democrats are adept fundraisers, however, so the winner’s campaign treasury will be quickly replenished after the party unites post-primary.

Minnesota

The Land of 10,000 Lakes also features a competitive Democratic Senate primary. In this case, the candidates are vying to replace the retiring Sen. Tina Smith (D). Today, it appears the nomination contest is evolving into a two-way affair between Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake).

In Minnesota, the state political party endorsements are very influential. Usually, a candidate not obtaining the party endorsement withdraws from the race but is not required to do so. For this Senate primary, it is likely that both of these candidates will advance into the Aug. 11 primary irrespective of the party endorsement process.

According to third quarter (Q3) financial reports, Craig has a significant fundraising advantage. She posts $2.9 million cash-on-hand as compared to just under $836,000 for Lt. Gov. Flanagan.

Nebraska

In 2024, Independent Dan Osborn became the election cycle’s surprise Senate candidate when he took several polling leads over Nebraska Sen. Deb Fischer (R). In the end, Sen. Fischer claimed a six-point win, but Osborn’s strong fundraising effort and populist appeal turned what should have been an easy Fischer win into a competitive contest.

Now, Osborn returns for another Senate campaign, this time against Sen. Pete Ricketts (R). Once again, Osborn is likely to enjoy Democratic Party official support; therefore, the party won’t field its own candidate. Sen. Ricketts is still a strong favorite, but this contest is likely to again draw national attention.

The Q3 financial disclosure reports show Sen. Ricketts holding $1.2 million in his campaign account while Osborn posts just under $517,000.

New Hampshire

Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) has successfully defined himself as the consensus party candidate to replace retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D).

Republicans are likely to soon see a new entry, possibly later this week. Former Sen. John E. Sununu, the son of former Governor and White House chief of staff John Sununu and brother of former four-term Gov. Chris Sununu, is likely to enter the campaign very soon. At this point, the leading Republican is former Massachusetts Senator and 2014 New Hampshire Senate candidate Scott Brown.

Early polling puts Sununu in position to tighten the race against Rep. Pappas, while the Congressman appears poised to easily defeat Brown. Rep. Pappas reports $2.6 million in his campaign account as compared to just under $803,000 for Brown. Since Sununu is not an official candidate, he is not yet required to file a disclosure report.

North Carolina

In what promises to be one of the defining national Senatorial contests, the general election candidates in the Tar Heel State are unofficially set: Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper and former Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley are virtually unopposed for their respective nominations.

Cooper has a major fundraising advantage. He already holds $8.6 million in his campaign account. Whatley, who started later, has just $1.1 million. Expect this race to go down to the wire. All North Carolina statewide races are tight, and this one will be no exception.

Ohio

The Ohio special election is another race where the general election is virtually set. Appointed Sen. Jon Husted (R) will run to serve the final two years of the current term. Opposing him will be former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D), who lost his seat in 2024.

This will be an expensive race, since then-Sen. Brown raised over $100 million for his last campaign. At this point, Brown has $5.9 million in cash-on-hand. Sen. Husted posts a similar $5 million. While Sen. Husted has the advantage because Ohio has been moving decidedly rightward in recent elections, we can count on seeing a very competitive contest here next year.

Texas

The Texas Senate situation has recently changed. With Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston) joining the Senate Republican primary, the race is no longer solely a battle between Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton. The chances of the Republicans heading to a post-primary runoff are now high.

For the Democrats, former Congressman and 2024 Senate nominee Colin Allred is no longer a lock for the 2026 party nomination. Polling shows him dropping. Announced candidate James Talarico, an Austin state Representative, is making significant gains. Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Dallas), while not an announced candidate, is the clear polling leader. Not only is the Republican primary in a state of flux, but now the Democratic nomination battle is as well.

On the financial front, Sen. Cornyn is the strongest among all candidates. He holds $6.0 million in his campaign account, which compares favorably against AG Paxton ($3.2M) and Rep. Hunt ($1.5M).

For the Democrats, it is Talarico who possesses the most money at $4.9 million. Rep. Crockett, again not officially in the race, has $4.8 million, and Allred finds himself trailing in this category too, with $1.8 million. In 2024, Allred was one of the top Democratic fundraisers in the country.

The Texas Senate race will be a race to watch from the March 3 primary until the campaign concludes on Election Day, Nov. 4, 2026.

Michigan’s 10th CD Could Become the Country’s Most Competitive Race

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, July 31, 2025

House

Michigan’s 10th Congressional District (Click on image or here to see full-size Michigan state map.)

Action is occurring in one of the few House open seats that promises to transform into a very expensive and highly competitive 2026 campaign.

Former Congressman Mike Bishop (R), who held Michigan’s former 8th District for two terms before losing to Elissa Slotkin (D) in 2018, this week made positive comments about possibly making a comeback bid in the state’s current 10th District next year. The seat will be open because two-term incumbent John James (R-Farmington Hills) is running for Governor.

The son of another prominent Oakland County office holder, Mike Bouchard Jr., is expected to announce his congressional run when he returns from an overseas assignment with the Army National Guard later this year. Mike Bouchard Sr. is the Oakland County Sheriff who was first elected in 1999 after serving nine years in the Michigan House and Senate and running unsuccessfully for both Governor and the US Senate.

Prominent Republicans have, heretofore, been slow to come forward in this district, while a number of Democrats declared much earlier. The top Democrats in the race are former US Commerce Department official Eric Chung, Pontiac Mayor Tim Greimel, Army Reserve Officer and ex-congressional aide Alex Hawkins, and 2024 Macomb County Prosecutor nominee Christina Hines.

The 10th District, created as a new open seat in the 2021 redistricting plan, lies to the northeast of Detroit and contains three-quarters of Macomb County and less than 10 percent of Oakland County. The district includes the Warren, Sterling Heights, and Rochester Hills communities.

Rep. James has won two close US House elections against the same Democratic opponent, former Macomb County Judge and ex-County Prosecutor Carl Marlinga.

In 2022, the district yielded one of the tightest finishes in the congressional election cycle, a 48.8 – 48.3 percent James victory margin. In November, the incumbent won re-election with a more substantial 51.1 – 45.0 percent spread. The latter result was similar to President Trump’s 2024 performance in the 10th District. He defeated Kamala Harris 52.2 – 45.7 percent.

Both President Trump and Rep. James outperformed the Dave’s Redistricting App’s partisan lean, which is calculated at 49.5D – 47.9R, which is one of the closest ratios in the country. The eventual Republican nominee will be forced to perform in a likewise manner if the party is to hold the seat in 2026.

The 2024 congressional race featured a large amount of outside spending largely because Marlinga was unable to prove himself as a strong fundraiser. According to the Open Secrets.com data site, the MI-10 race drew more than $17 million in outside spending, approximately $10.1 million of which was spent to aid Marlinga. The district ranked 25th in the nation in terms of attracting outside resources and it is likely that more will come into the open seat race for 2026.

Looking at the total candidate expenditures, Rep. James raised and spent more than $9.4 million as compared to Marlinga’s $2.9 million. The outside spending made the aggregate $13.2 million for Marlinga as compared to Rep. James’ $16.3 million. Expect all of these numbers to rise for the 2026 open campaign.

Currently, 22 seats will be open for the next election, but only two appear to be highly competitive for the 2026 general election. MI-10 and NE-2 — the latter seat opening due to incumbent Nebraska US Rep. Don Bacon (R-Papillion/Omaha) retiring — at this point will attract the most political attention and outside resources in the open seat category.

With Republicans defending both seats, each will have a major role in determining which party controls the House when the 120th Congress begins in January of 2027.

Michigan: Tudor Dixon Out

By Jim Ellis — Monday, July 14, 2025

Governor

2022 Michigan Gubernatorial Nominee Tudor Dixon (R)

The Michigan Republicans got a break. Last week’s reported announcement from 2022 gubernatorial nominee Tudor Dixon that she would not run for either Governor or Senator saves the Republican leadership dealing with what could have been an expensive and potentially divisive nomination fight for one of the open statewide offices.

In 2022, Dixon won the Republican gubernatorial nomination defeating four lesser known GOP candidates after retired Detroit police chief James Craig was disqualified from participating due to insufficient petition signatures. She then lost 54-44 percent to Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) in the general election.

This year, Dixon was considered a possible contender again for Governor or possibly the US Senate, which are simultaneously both open races for the first time in modern Michigan electoral history.

The Republican leadership is sold on returning with former Rep. Mike Rogers in the Senate race, especially since he came within 19,006 votes (which was three-tenths of one percent) of upsetting current Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D) last November. Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Holland) is still a possible Senate Republican primary contender, however.

If she were to return to the campaign trail it was more likely that Dixon would have entered the Governor’s race. In that open campaign, the party leadership wants to support Rep. John James (R-Farmington Hills), who has twice run close Senate campaigns and then held a politically marginal congressional district for two terms.

Early polling showed Rep. James and Dixon locked in a tight contest, thereby likely producing a weakened winner regardless of who would have prevailed in a drawn-out GOP statewide primary battle that won’t be decided until Aug. 4, 2026.

Without Dixon in the Governor’s race, Rep. James still faces former Attorney General Mike Cox, who was last on the ballot in 2010 when he placed third in the Republican gubernatorial primary behind eventual winner Rick Snyder and then-Congressman Pete Hoekstra. Snyder would then serve two full terms as Michigan’s chief executive.

Also in the 2026 Republican primary race are former state House Speaker Tom Leonard and state Senate Minority Leader Aric Nesbitt (R-Paw Paw), along with minor candidates. Within this candidate configuration, Rep. James is the clear favorite.

The Democrats also have a contested primary, featuring two of their statewide elected office holders, Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist and Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson. Early polling gives Benson a substantial lead over Gilchrist, but this race has much time to develop, and the Lieutenant Governor has a strong Detroit political base.

The general election is interesting largely because of a strong Independent candidate’s presence and polling already detects a developing close race. Instead of running for Governor as a Democrat, three-term Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan is advancing directly into the general election as an Independent candidate. With his political strength coming from the state’s largest population center, Duggan makes the general election a tight three-way contest where all major contenders have a legitimate victory path.

One would expect Mayor Duggan to draw Democratic votes away from the eventual party nominee, but early polling shows him attracting equivalent numbers from both parties. This race is expected to drastically change once the primaries are complete. Though Mayor Duggan will not have a major party ballot line in the general election, he has the advantage of having to run only one campaign. Therefore, he can bank his financial resources until political prime time.

Without Dixon and her substantial right flank political base coming into the Senate race, and if Rep. Huizenga can be convinced to run for re-election instead of statewide, and the Democrats fall into a divisive nomination battle, former Rep. Rogers would see a dream scenario unfold for his November 2026 campaign.

The Democrats, largely in the persons of Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham) and state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak) along with state Rep. Joe Tate (D-Detroit) and former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed, are potentially headed for such a contentious primary battle.

With Rogers’ now having national support and a proven track record in running a strong statewide campaign, his biggest problem that surfaced early in 2024 is likely solved. The former Congressman showed weak fundraising prowess at the beginning of the last election cycle, but such is not an issue for him in 2026, particularly if he gets a clean primary.

Polling will assuredly show this race as being close until the end, but Michigan Republicans, as they do in many other states, tend to outperform their polling support. Therefore, the Wolverine State, featuring tightly contested open Senate and Governor races, will be one of the premier political states for the 2026 election cycle.

Review: House Open Seats

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, July 1, 2025

House

The next House election cycle will again conclude with few seats changing hands, and one party or the other controlling the chamber in 2027 with only a small margin.

Throughout the past decade and into the first two elections of the current decennium, we have seen an inordinately large number of open US House seats in each individual election cycle, usually between 48 and 63 seats; but not so for 2026.

To date, there are only 16 open House seats for the next election, and three of those are due to the incumbent member passing away. Therefore, the AZ-7 (Raul Grijalva), TX-18 (Sylvester Turner), and VA-11 (Gerry Connally) seats will be filled later this year in special elections.

Regarding the 13 announced open seats for the regular 2026 election (7R; 6D), only one, IL-9 (Rep. Jan Schakowsky-D), derives from a true retirement. The other dozen incumbents will leave the House to seek another elective office.

While the open seat number is sure to grow as candidate filing deadlines approach (beginning in December), we are still unlikely to see a plethora of House campaigns without an incumbent running in political prime time next year.

Therefore, the open count provides a further clue toward seeing a House election cycle that will again conclude with few seats changing hands, and one party or the other controlling the chamber in 2027 with only a small margin.

At this point, we see an additional five members who are soon to announce bids for other offices:

MI-4: Michigan Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Holland), against the wishes of the national and state Republican Party leadership, looks to soon announce that he will challenge former Representative and 2024 US Senate nominee Mike Rogers for the open Republican US Senate nomination.

Huizenga would begin a Senate campaign in an underdog position for the primary, and his open southwestern Michigan congressional seat would become hotly contested in the general election.

NJ-11: Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) is the Democratic gubernatorial nominee for the 2025 New Jersey statewide election. If she wins, and the Congresswoman is rated as an early favorite for the November vote, her 11th CD will go to a 2026 special election. Should she lose the Governor’s race, Rep. Sherrill would be eligible to return and seek re-election.

NY-21: Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY), who was nominated as US Ambassador to the United Nations only to see her appointment pulled back in fear of the GOP losing her congressional seat in a special election, now looks perched to announce a bid for Governor.

With incumbent Kathy Hochul (D) posting poor job approval numbers and facing at least one strong Democratic primary opponent, a credible Republican’s chance to win the Governorship, while still a reach, appears better than in most election cycles. Even if she runs and loses, Rep. Stefanik would likely then be in line for another Trump appointment.

SC-1: South Carolina Congresswoman Nancy Mace (R-Charleston) is close to making an official gubernatorial announcement.

The three-term House member has been confirming for months that she is considering the open statewide race and when Attorney General Alan Wilson declared his gubernatorial candidacy earlier this week, Rep. Mace came out swinging, publicly attacking him as being “soft on crime.” Her swift response and comments are a discernible clue that she will soon officially enter the statewide campaign.

SC-5: Another South Carolina Congressman, Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill), is scheduling a “special announcement” for July 27, which is a clear signal that he, too, will run for Governor.

Assuming AG Wilson and the two House members all compete for the GOP nomination, a highly competitive Republican primary battle would transpire, culminating next June. Should no one obtain majority support in the June 11, 2026 primary, the top two finishers will participate in a runoff election two weeks later on June 25. The eventual GOP nominee will have the inside track to succeed retiring Gov. Henry McMaster (R).

There are several more members who have confirmed they are considering running for a different office but to date have yet to make any discernible move toward developing a statewide campaign. The Representatives in this category are:

Barry Moore (R-AL-1) — Senate
Rich McCormick (R-GA-7) — Senate
Mike Collins (R-GA-10) — Senate
Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA-14) — Governor
Darin LaHood (R-IL-16) — Governor
Ritchie Torres (D-NY-15) — Governor
Dan Meuser (R-PA-9) — Governor
Harriet Hageman (R-WY-AL) — Governor

In the past, the following members have been mentioned as possible statewide candidates but are now considered unlikely prospects:

Cory Mills (R-FL-7) — Senate
Jared Moskowitz (D-FL-23) — Governor
Carlos Gimenez (R-FL-28) — Mayor of Miami-Dade County
Mike Lawler (R-NY-17) — Governor

Political Roundup

By Jim Ellis — Monday, June 23, 2025

Governor

Virginia Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (R)

Virginia –– Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears and former Rep. Abigail Spanberger won their respective Republican and Democratic gubernatorial primaries as unopposed candidates.

A pre-primary poll from the co/efficient research firm conducted for the Founders Insight Public Policy Research organization (June 8-10; 1,127 likely Virginia voters) sees Spanberger leading Lt. Gov. Earle-Sears by a 46-43 percent margin. Seven credible polls have been released for the Virginia race and six find Spanberger leading by an average of four percentage points. The other poll found the two candidates locked in a tie. The November 2025 election is expected to be highly competitive.

Kansas — Democrats have their first announced gubernatorial candidate to replace term-limited Gov. Laura Kelly (D) as the party’s 2026 nominee. State Sen. Cindy Holscher (D-Overland Park) declared her gubernatorial candidacy late last week.

Though Gov. Kelly has won two elections as the state chief executive, the eventual GOP nominee will be favored in an open seat contest since the state’s electorate typically votes Republican. For the GOP, former Governor Jeff Colyer and Secretary of State Scott Schwab are the leading contenders.

Michigan — Former state House Speaker Tom Leonard (R) announced that he will enter the open Republican gubernatorial primary. He last ran statewide in 2022 where he came within a 49-46 percent margin of unseating Attorney General Dana Nessel (D). Leonard joins a Republican field that includes Representative and former statewide candidate John James (R-Farmington Hills), ex-Attorney General Mike Cox, and state Senate Minority Leader Aric Nesbitt (R-Paw Paw).

On the Democratic side, the announced candidates are Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist, and Genesee County Sheriff Chris Swanson. Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.

House

AZ-1 — Jimmy McCain, son of the late Sen. John McCain (R), said last week he will not enter the Democratic field to challenge Rep. David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills) in Arizona’s politically marginal 1st Congressional District. In the race are 2024 Democratic nominee and former state Rep. Amish Shah, who held Rep. Schweikert to a 52-48 percent re-election victory, and ex-TV news anchor and 2024 congressional candidate Marlene Galan-Woods, along with four others. The general election here is expected to hold toss-up status throughout the campaign cycle.

FL-19 — Former New York US Rep. Chris Collins and ex-Illinois state Sen. Jim Oberweis, both former elected officials from other states, have each separately announced their intention to compete in the open southwest Florida congressional primary. Candidates with an actual Florida political history are also expected to enter. FL-19 is a safely Republican district (Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean: 62.5R – 36.1D), so the eventual GOP nominee will be a lock to win the general election. Incumbent Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Naples) is running for Governor.

IA-1 — Ex-state Rep. Christina Bohannan (D), who has twice run for Congress and held Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Le Claire) to a 799-vote win in 2024, announced that she will return for a third run in 2026. Bohannan will have little trouble securing the Democratic nomination, and we can expect to see another tight general election in this district where Rep. Miller-Meeks has run under the Republican benchmark. President Trump posted a 2024 victory margin of 53.5 – 45.0 percent here over Kamala Harris, while Rep. Miller-Meeks recorded only 48.4 percent.

MO-2 — Retired St. Louis Cardinals pitcher Adam Wainwright said during the week that he will not enter the Democratic primary to challenge Rep. Ann Wagner (R-Ballwin). Democratic leaders had been attempting to recruit Wainwright even though he has never said whether he considers himself a Democrat. Missouri is one of 19 states where political party affiliation is not a stated voter registration condition.

City & State

New York City — An internal campaign poll from Public Policy Polling (for the Mamdani campaign; June 6-7; 573 likely New York City Democratic primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) finds state Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani taking the first ballot lead over former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, 35-31 percent, in the city’s Democratic primary scheduled for tomorrow, June 24. This is the first time a published poll has not shown Cuomo leading.

Conversely, a Cuomo campaign poll from Expedition Strategies (June 3-7; 600 likely New York City Democratic primary voters; live interview & text) sees Cuomo holding a substantial 42-30 percent lead over Mamdani. The Data for Progress polling organization carried the questionnaire through eight RCV rounds and projected Cuomo prevailing over Mamdani, 51-49 percent.

The most recent release, from Marist College (June 9-12; 1,350 likely New York City Democratic primary voters; live interview & text) also projects Cuomo with the lead, 43-31 percent, in this case.

The Ranked Choice Voting system is used for this campaign. The pollsters find Cuomo eventually winning the primary but it will likely take six to seven rounds to determine a winner. Incumbent Mayor Eric Adams is running as an Independent.

Virginia — State Sen. Ghazala Hashimi (D-Richmond) edged Richmond Mayor Levar Stoney and state Sen. Aaron Rouse (D-Virginia Beach) by a 27.4 – 26.6 – 26.3 percent margin to win the Democratic nomination for Lieutenant Governor on June 17. In November, Sen. Hashimi will face Republican radio talk show host John Reid.

In the Attorney General’s primary, we saw another close finish. Former state Delegate and 2023 Attorney General candidate Jay Jones defeated Henrico County Commonwealth Attorney Shannon Taylor, 51-49 percent, to win the Democratic nomination. Jones will now challenge incumbent Attorney General Jason Miyares (R).

All Virginia statewide races, including the gubernatorial battle between Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (R) and former Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D), project close finishes in 2026.

Senate: Early Open Seat Observations

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, May 27, 2025

Senate

Senator and former Auburn football coach Tommy Tuberville

It appears that Alabama Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R) will announce his campaign for Governor at some point this week.

Tuberville’s doing so will make the Alabama seat the sixth open Senate race for the 2026 election cycle, joining Illinois, Kentucky, Michigan, Minnesota, and New Hampshire.

Sen. Tuberville’s move toward the Governor’s contest looks ever more secure since Lt. Gov. Will Ainsworth (R) announced late last week that he will not run. Earlier this month, his statements led observers to believe that he would be the only Republican willing to challenge the Senator in the Republican gubernatorial primary.

Previously, Ainsworth reiterated that he would not run for the Senate, making it clear that his eyes were on the Governorship. Therefore, his announcement of not running for Governor is quite surprising but likely a testament to Tuberville’s strength within the Republican base.

In the open Senate race, we can expect to see a crowded Republican field, but possibly only one major candidate on the Democratic side. While a Republican House member may or may not jump into the Senate skirmish, several state officials are likely to do so.

For the Democrats, former US Senator Doug Jones, who Sen. Tuberville unseated in 2020 with a 60-40 percent victory margin, is indicating that he is considering either entering the Senate or Governor’s race next year. With Tuberville headed to the Governor’s campaign, it is probable that Jones, if he decides to again run for office, will attempt to regain his Senate seat since that race will be open.

Three of the open Senate seats are already stabilizing. At the outset, the races in Illinois and Minnesota appear similar. Here, we see Sens. Dick Durbin (D-IL) and Tina Smith (D-MN) retiring, leaving hotly contested Democratic primaries in their wake. Republicans, on the other hand, don’t see a major candidate surfacing right now in either campaign.

The Illinois Democratic primary will be decided on March 17. The contest features two US House members, Reps. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Schaumburg) and Robin Kelly (D-Matteson/Chicago), along with Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton.

The Lieutenant Governor won endorsements from Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D) and the state’s junior Senator, Tammy Duckworth (D). Yet, Stratton and Rep. Kelly largely share the same major constituency, the Black community, and even hail from similar locations in the Chicago area. Therefore, the two have a high probability of splitting the same vote pool. Rep. Krishnamoorthi had almost $20 million in his campaign account at the end of the first quarter and may have better potential to attract downstate votes. In any event, this will be an interesting early race.

In Minnesota, with former state Senate Minority Leader Melisa Lopez Franzen already dropping out of the Democratic race, the contest, likely to be decided in an August primary, is already evolving into a close two-way affair between Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake).

Kentucky Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) retiring after seven terms will leave this seat with a new occupant for the first time since 1985. Republicans are headed to a May primary battle between former Attorney General and 2023 GOP gubernatorial nominee Daniel Cameron and Rep. Andy Barr (R-Lexington).

The big unanswered question, however, is whether Gov. Andy Beshear (D-KY) will enter the race. He has won two statewide campaigns, including defeating Cameron in the 2023 general election. If the Governor runs for Senate, the open race becomes very much in play. Should he only focus on running for President in 2028, the eventual GOP nominee should have an easy walk in the general election.

The New Hampshire Senate race is already evolving into a general election contest even before state legislators decide if they will move the September primary to an earlier date.

Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) is quickly uniting the Democratic Party behind his candidacy and looks to become a consensus candidate. He will have the advantage in November likely over former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown (R), who is moving toward again locking down the GOP nomination. In 2014, he held Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) to a 51-48 percent re-election victory.

Finally, the Michigan race looks to be the one toss-up open Senate race. Republican former Representative and 2024 US Senate nominee Mike Rogers returns for another shot but may have to win a Republican primary against Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Holland).

The Wolverine States Democrats are for sure headed to a contested primary. Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham) and state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak) are already in the race, while term-limited Attorney General Dana Nessel may soon join the field. The 2024 general election was decided by just 19,006 votes, and it would not be surprising to see a similar result occur in 2026.

Georgia Gov. Kemp Out; Which
Other Governors Could Be In?

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, May 8, 2025

Senate

Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R)

Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp’s announcement earlier in the week that he would not challenge Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) next year was surprising to many but not all political observers.

In fact, it’s possible that we will see all of the Governors or ex-Governors who could run for the Senate in the various states take a pass on challenging a Senatorial incumbent or competing in an open seat situation.

The Kemp announcement now unfreezes the Republicans waiting in the wings who want to run statewide. Individuals who have expressed interest or at least confirm they are considering challenging Sen. Ossoff, include four members of the US House delegation. They are: Reps. Buddy Carter (R-Pooler/Savannah), Rich McCormick (R-Suwanee), Mike Collins (R-Jackson), and Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Rome). Also counted among the possible candidates are state Agriculture Commissioner Tyler Harper and state Insurance Commissioner John King.

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution newspaper conducted a statewide Georgia poll (April 15-24; 1,000 registered Georgia voters) and found Gov. Kemp, if he were to challenge Sen. Ossoff, leading the prospective race 49-46 percent.

Now, without Kemp in the candidate field, the advantage turns to Ossoff. The AJC poll found him leading King 51-38 percent, and topping Rep. Greene, 54-37 percent. Also tested was Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger who has said he’s considering a Senate bid but is more likely to enter the open Governor’s race. Raffensperger, however, polls best within this group against Sen. Ossoff, trailing 48-39 percent in the AJC poll. Reps. Carter, McCormick, and Collins were not tested.

The outlook suggests that the Georgia Republicans will now see a crowded Senate primary field, meaning it will become difficult for one candidate to win the nomination outright. The 2026 Peach State election calendar has not yet been set, but the likely statewide primary date will be May 19, 2026, with a runoff for the top two finishers, should no one reach the 50 percent threshold, probably scheduled for June 16. Therefore, the most plausible projection is that the Georgia GOP won’t have an official Senate nominee until late June of next year.

With Sen. Ossoff already possessing over $11 million in his campaign account, a number that will grow exponentially before the Republicans nominate their Senate candidate, he is in a favorable pre-election position.

Elsewhere, there are a dozen situations where a Governor or ex-Governor could conceivably run for an open Senate seat or challenge an incumbent of the opposite party.

Of the 12, we see one reverse situation. Tennessee Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R) appears intent on running for an open gubernatorial position.

Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey (R) could look at an open Senate seat campaign if Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R) decides to run for Governor as expected, and Maine’s Janet Mills (D) could challenge Sen. Susan Collins (R) with the encouragement of many Democratic leaders. Neither, however, is likely to run for Senate because both are over or nearing 80 years old.

Aside from Gov. Kemp, four other Governors have already turned down opportunities to run for the Senate.

Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D) has already endorsed Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton (D) to replace retiring Sen. Dick Durbin (D), while the Governor himself appears to be preparing a third run for his current position.

Term-limited Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) is very likely to run for President in 2028 and will therefore bypass a run for her state’s open Senate seat.

Like Gov. Pritzker in Illinois, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, the 2024 Democratic Vice Presidential nominee, has endorsed Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan to replace retiring US Sen. Tina Smith (D). As with Pritzker, Gov. Walz is preparing to run for a third term.

New Hampshire ex-Gov. Chris Sununu (R), who like Gov. Kemp in Georgia would give the Republicans their best chance of converting a Democratic Senate seat, has also said he will not run in 2026. His future plans are only speculated upon, but a future presidential bid would not be out of the question.

Term-limited Kansas Gov. Laura Kelly (D) is not mentioned as a possible presidential candidate, but party leaders are encouraging her to challenge first-term Sen. Roger Marshall (R). It remains to be seen what the Governor will decide for 2026.

Two term-limited Governors and one ex-state chief executive are at the forefront of presidential prognostication, yet each sees a viable Senate situation developing in their respective state.

Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) could challenge Sen. Mark Warner (D) next year, since his one term will expire in early 2026. Though clearly looking at a presidential run, Gov. Youngkin, and any Republican, would face an uphill battle against Vice President J.D. Vance for the party nomination. A race against Sen. Warner would also be uphill, so Gov. Youngkin may see his electoral window closing.

On the Democratic side, Gov. Andy Beshear (D-KY) and former Gov. Roy Cooper (D-NC) could enter what promises to be a very crowded 2028 Democratic presidential campaign. Should only one of these two run, that individual, either Beshear or Cooper coming from the southern region, would be a viable prospective nominee because of their opportunity to accumulate a large quantity of delegate support from the vote-rich South.

Signs are pointing to a situation where the aforementioned Governors or ex-Governors follow the Sununu and Kemp example and decline their party leaders overtures to launch a 2026 Senate campaign.

A Senate Review – Part II

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, May 7, 2025

Senate

Today concludes our two-part series covering the latest in competitive US Senate campaigns. This edition examines developing contests in Michigan through Virginia.

In this report, if a state is not listed, it means the incumbent is currently expected to seek re-election and face little in the way of credible opposition.

Michigan — The 2024 open Senate contest surprisingly proved to be the tightest in the nation, so a second open contest in successive election cycles will draw much greater early national attention and resources. Republican former Congressman Mike Rogers, despite being badly outspent, lost to then-Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D) by just 19,006 votes statewide. He returns to again battle for a Senate seat; this time left open because Sen. Gary Peters (D) is retiring.

Rogers should be a clear favorite for the Republican nomination, though Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Holland) says he is considering entering the race. For the Democrats, Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham) and state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak) are announced candidates. Term-limited Attorney General Dana Nessel is also a potential Democratic candidate. Count on this race being considered a toss-up all the way through the Nov. 4, 2026, election day.

Minnesota — Sen. Tina Smith (D) is not seeking a second six-year term, which opens the door for a highly competitive Democratic primary. In the race are Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake), and former state Senate Minority Leader Melisa Lopez Franzen. Others may join but count on this race advancing through the party endorsing convention to the August primary ballot.

Republicans, at this point, do not have a credible announced candidate, which means it is highly likely that Sen. Smith’s successor will be the Democratic primary winner.

New Hampshire — Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) will retire at the end of the current Congress, and Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) is well on his way to becoming a consensus Democratic candidate long before next year’s candidate filing deadline. Already publicly endorsing Pappas are a host of New Hampshire Democratic leaders including Sen. Shaheen, the state’s junior Senator, Maggie Hassan, Rep. Maggie Goodlander (D-Nashua), former four-term Gov. John Lynch, and ex-Rep. Annie Kuster.

Republicans lost their best candidate option when former four-term Gov. Chris Sununu declined to run. Ex-Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown, who lost to Sen. Shaheen in 2014 on a 51-48 percent count, looks to be running again and could well win the nomination. Without Sununu in the race, however, the edge goes to the Democrats particularly with Rep. Pappas performing so well early.

North Carolina — This is yet another situation where party leaders are trying to convince a sitting or former Governor to challenge the opposite party’s incumbent Senator. Ex-Gov. Roy Cooper (D), who was ineligible to seek a third term in 2024 under his state’s election law, remains uncommitted about challenging Sen. Thom Tillis (R).

In the race for the Democrats, however, is former Rep. Wiley Nickel who did not seek re-election to a second term in 2024 because of an adverse redistricting map. Originally, Nickel said he would stand aside for Cooper but does not appear to be saying such any longer. This could be a clue that the former Governor will not run for Senate to instead prepare for a 2028 presidential campaign.

The nature of North Carolina politics suggests that the 2026 Senate race will again be close irrespective of whose running. The state traditionally features tight statewide elections in almost every cycle. Consider this race a toss-up, particularly if Cooper decides to run, though former Congressman Nickel will prove an able candidate.

Ohio — As in Florida, Ohio will host a special election to fill the balance of a current Senate term. After then-Sen. J.D. Vance was elected Vice President, Gov. Mike DeWine (R) appointed Lt. Gov. Jon Husted (R) to the Senate seat. Husted now must run in 2026 to fill the balance of the six-year term, and then again in 2028 for a full six-year stint.

Last week, former Representative and 2022 US Senate nominee Tim Ryan (D) announced he would not challenge Sen. Husted but still expresses interest in the Governor’s race.

Ohio is another state where potential candidates, in this case Democrats, are frozen in time waiting for a decision from another. Former three-term Sen. Sherrod Brown (D), who lost his seat to Bernie Moreno (R) in November, is a potential candidate for both Senate and Governor. Until Brown decides where to run, if anywhere at all, expect little movement among other prospective Democratic candidates.

South Carolina — Talk of a Republican primary challenge to Sen. Lindsey Graham has died down since both Reps. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston) and Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill) are looking toward an open Governor’s race. Sen. Graham showing almost $16 million in his campaign account also is dissuading potential challengers from both parties. At this point, expect Sen. Graham to have an easy road to re-election.

South Dakota — Recently, Sen. Mike Rounds (R) stated that he would not enter the open Governor’s race which would be an attempt to regain a political position he once held. Curiously, he did not announce a bid for re-election in declining to run for Governor.

Rounds is still expected to stand for election to the Senate in 2026, and with his state featuring a Governor’s race that could yield a major Republican primary battle, the two-term federal incumbent is expected to breeze through another re-election next year.

Texas — Several recent polls show incumbent Sen. John Cornyn badly trailing Attorney General Ken Paxton, who is an announced Republican primary competitor. The polling, however, is not the full story.

A non-profit organization, Standing for Texas, is running ads in the major media markets with the exception of Rep. Wesley Hunt’s (R) hometown of Houston, positively profiling the Congressman and clearly laying the groundwork for a statewide run. Curiously, however, the latest polls do not include Rep. Hunt as a Senate candidate, even though signs are clear that he intends to enter the contest. The addition of Rep. Hunt, and/or other candidates, could certainly change the campaign trajectory.

Sen. Cornyn’s problem is that large numbers within the Texas GOP base believe him to be a RINO (Republican In Name Only) because he has strayed from the typical party position on several issues. A fair characterization or not, it is clear that Sen. Cornyn will have to neutralize this image in order to forge a winning coalition.

On the Democratic side, no major candidate has yet come forth but 2024 Senate nominee Colin Allred, now a former Congressman, confirms he is considering returning for a 2026 campaign. Ex-Congressman and failed presidential, Senate, and gubernatorial candidate Beto O’Rourke says he is not “closing the door” on entering the Senate race. Rep. Joaquin Castro (D-San Antonio) is another possibility as is astronaut Terry Verts.

It appears we will see a great deal of early action from candidates in both parties for the Texas Senate race. The party primaries are scheduled for March 3, 2026, with a runoff on May 26 if no candidate secures majority support. Regardless of the outcome of each nomination contest, expect the Texas Senate campaign cycle to yield a tough and close months-long campaign.

Virginia — Sen. Mark Warner (D) is on the ballot for a fourth term, and unless Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) decides to challenge him, the Democratic incumbent should have little trouble again winning re-election. If the Governor does run, the contest will prove close, but the Senator would still be rated as at least a slight favorite to win the general election.

Gov. Youngkin is another of the state chief executives said to have presidential aspirations, so it remains to be seen if he is looking toward launching a national campaign, running for the Senate, or simply retiring from elective politics. Virginia is the only state in the country that limits its Governors to one term, so Youngkin’s future political options are narrow.