Tag Archives: Carly Fiorina

Media Misses New Polling Story

Nov. 23, 2015 — Reporters from several news publications, such as The Hill newspaper, along with various commentators are mis-reading the latest polls*. They’re trying to craft a premise that Donald Trump is again spiking, and that his improved status is directly related to the France massacre. But, the survey data are consistently revealing a much different point.

Considering that Trump ranges from between 23 and 38 percent support in all of these studies, taking into account their various sampling groups and methodological factors, isn’t much different than where he’s been standing for months. Trump continues to place first in most polls, but is far from the 50 percent majority figure he will need to capture the nomination.

The missed point is that these polls and other research conclusions are beginning to reveal a separation among the candidates. Most recent polling consistently shows that the top tier revolves around Trump, Dr. Ben Carson, Sen. Marco Rubio and Sen. Ted Cruz, with Jeb Bush falling into the second tier but remaining within striking distance of the upper echelon.

While true that the third and fourth place finishers in these studies sometimes do not touch double-digits, the standing order appears consistent throughout most of the survey research that now resides in the public sector.

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The Numbers Behind Dr. Ben Carson’s Upward Move in the Polls

Oct. 26, 2015 — Two new state polls released at the end of last week find Dr. Ben Carson breaking Donald Trump’s stranglehold on first place. The Quinnipiac University Iowa survey (Oct. 14-20; 574 likely Iowa Republican Caucus attenders) and the Norbert College Strategic Institute results for Wisconsin (Oct. 14-17; 600 Wisconsin state residents) reveal Carson snatching first place, though the latter poll has a questionable methodology.

Iowa, holding 30 proportional Republican delegates, is the first state to host a nominating event and will do so on the first day of next February.

According to the new Q-Poll, Carson has opened up a 28-20 percent advantage over Trump, with Sen. Marco Rubio jumping to third place (13 percent), and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz landing in fourth with 10 percent preference. Sen. Rand Paul follows at six percent, with Jeb Bush and Carly Fiorina each attracting five percent support. And in a disappointing performance for a Midwestern regional candidate — a prototype that normally fares well in Iowa — Ohio Gov. John Kasich falls to just a three percent standing.

Dr. Carson has been inching closer to Trump for the past few weeks, so it’s not altogether surprising to see him beginning to move past the flamboyant international businessman. Now, Dr. Carson faces a staying power test. Thus, the upcoming Oct. 28 Republican debate may be this first-time candidate’s most important early campaign appearance.

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Dems Debate While Biden Postpones

Oct. 15, 2015 — While the announced Democratic candidates faced each other in their first official forum at the Wynn Hotel & Casino in Las Vegas Tuesday night, Vice President Joe Biden continued to indicate that he won’t commit to making a decision about whether to enter the presidential contest until at least month’s end.

The continual postponing of the eventual candidacy decision suggests that Biden won’t enter the race. While he does have people around the country who would quickly come to his aid should he begin to construct a campaign, he is simply running out of time to qualify for the Democratic primary ballot separately in all 50 states if he were to begin from scratch in November. Though it would not be impossible for him to qualify, his task becomes immeasurably more difficult.

Waiting until next month to get in the race, when the first vote would be just three months away in Iowa followed by a string of primary and caucus participants casting ballots in non-stop fashion in 56 additional entities through mid-June, would add tremendous pressure to a Biden for President effort. The timing would force the vice president to immediately overcome major campaign logistical obstacles, such as the aforementioned ballot qualification process, hiring staff, developing a fundraising operation, crafting a campaign theme and message, etc. Additionally, he would have to spend virtually all available energy and staff time attempting to take down former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I/D-VT), both of whom are well entrenched in Democratic primary polling.

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Swing State Surprises for Trump

Oct. 9, 2015 — Quinnipiac University again surveyed the presidential field with their “Swing State Poll” series, and while many of the results tell a familiar story about the numbers surrounding Donald Trump’s performance, the support question responses should be giving the leading Republican presidential candidate cause for concern. The data projects Trump leading the GOP nomination battle in all three of the states in the poll, but the favorable conclusions end with this point. The remaining results find the flamboyant international businessman’s political standing beginning to unravel.

During the Sept. 25 through Oct. 5 period, the Q-Poll simultaneously surveyed the important states of Florida (1,173 registered Florida voters; 461 likely Republican primary voters, 411 likely Democratic primary voters), Ohio (1,180 registered Ohio voters; 433 likely Republican primary voters, 396 likely Democratic primary voters), and Pennsylvania (1,049 registered Pennsylvania voters; 427 likely Republican primary voters, 442 likely Democratic primary voters).

In all three places, Trump posted preference numbers between 23 and 28 percent. Dr. Ben Carson sweeps the second position, in a consistent range from 16-18 percent. Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) finishes third in Florida (14 percent) and Pennsylvania (12 percent), while Gov. John Kasich places third (13 percent) in his native Ohio.

Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush continues to experience major polling problems, here dropping to a campaign-low four percent in both Ohio and Pennsylvania. In his home state of Florida, he drops all the way to fourth position, registering only 12 percent within the Republican universe that twice spring boarded him to convincing victories in the Sunshine State governor’s race (1998, 2002).

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Bloomberg Poll Explains Trump

Sept. 28, 2015 — A new Bloomberg Politics poll conducted by Iowa-based Selzer & Company (Sept. 18-21; 1,001 adults) at least partially explains Donald Trump’s apparent sudden appeal. The poll asks pointed questions about how the respondents perceive various issues, and the results provide supporting data as to why Trump’s message is striking chords with many prospective voters.

In a previous update, we discussed the Bloomberg/Selzer Democratic primary ballot test (375 likely Democratic primary voters – a sample too small to adequately draw national conclusions). This new data reveals that a bare majority would now choose a Dem candidate other than former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. Additionally, their underlying issue questions provide us a relatively sound base from which to analyze potential voting patterns.

The key questions surround America’s greatness, a subject that has become the theme of Trump’s national campaign. From his slogan “let’s make America great again”, it becomes obvious that Trump no longer thinks the country is heading toward its apex. According to the Bloomberg/Selzer data, the majority of respondents share that opinion. Their question is reproduced below, with response percentages in adjoining parenthesis:

Do you think the United States today is:
• Greater than it has ever been (6%)
• Equally great as it has been in the past (20%)
• Falling behind (47%)
• Failing (25%)
• Not sure (2%)

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