Tag Archives: California

Senate Recap – Part I

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Oct. 2, 2024

Senate

In a three-part series, we examine the latest in the 21 US Senate races that are either competitive or where a new senator will succeed an incumbent not seeking re-election. In alphabetical order, we begin today with Arizona and move through Michigan. Tomorrow, we look at Minnesota through New Mexico, and on Friday, end with the competitive races from Ohio to Wisconsin.

Arizona Rep. Ruben Gallego (D)

Arizona — Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I) is retiring after one term, and it appears that Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) will be her successor in January. Rep. Gallego has successfully created a more moderate image than his record in the House might depict. His campaign is emphasizing his military record and addresses the border issue, which has greater effect in Arizona than most states.

Republicans, nominating former news anchor and 2022 gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake, have also yielded the inside track to Rep. Gallego. Lake’s continued accusations that voter fraud cost her the 2022 election has soured most swing voters. Rep. Gallego leads in all polls, and with an average position of 7-plus points in nine September polls and two tracks. Expect Rep. Gallego to officially claim the seat in November.

California — While former baseball great Steve Garvey (R) performed well in California’s crowded jungle primary election back in June, and even placed first in the special election to permanently replace the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D), he is no match for Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank) in a two-way match.

Schiff’s advertising about Garvey being too conservative during the primary helped elevate the Garvey candidacy with Republicans, thus the congressman got the general election opponent he desired. A GOP candidate has virtually no chance today in a California statewide race. Schiff will win in a landslide.

Delaware — Sen. Tom Carper (D) is retiring and leaves the seat to at-large Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester (D-Wilmington). This open race is nothing more than an easy re-election bid for the congresswoman who already represents the entire state.

Florida — Sen. Rick Scott (R) is on the ballot for a second term, after winning his initial federal election by just over 10,000 votes from more than eight million ballots cast. In that election, Scott, then the state’s governor, unseated veteran Sen. Bill Nelson (D). This time, Sen. Scott faces former Congresswoman Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D), who held a south Florida seat for one term before current Rep. Carlos Gimenez (R-Miami) unseated her in 2020.

While polling again shows a close race – Sen. Scott leads by just over three percentage points in seven September polls and two tracks – the Florida electorate’s political composition has drastically changed from six years ago.

In 2018, when Sen. Scott was first elected, Democrats outnumbered Republicans by over 257,000 registrants. Today, Republicans hold a 956,000-plus advantage over Democrats, meaning the state has changed in the GOP’s favor by more than 1.2 million individuals. This is the main reason that pollsters underestimated the 2022 Florida statewide Republican strength by an average of seven points.

Expect Sen. Scott to win by a bigger margin than the polling currently indicates.

Indiana — With first-term Sen. Mike Braun (R) eschewing a second term to launch what appears to be a successful run for governor, Rep. Jim Banks (R-Columbia City) finds himself with one of the easiest open Senate runs in decades. Banks was unopposed in the Republican primary and is pitted against a weak Democratic contender in the general election. Rep. Banks will easily win the Senate seat in November and protect the open seat for the GOP.

Maryland — Sen. Ben Cardin (D) is retiring after a remarkable 58 years in elective office, counting his time in the state legislature, the US House, and of course the Senate. In his wake we have seen two rather astonishing campaigns, the first in the Democratic primary where US Rep. David Trone (D-Potomac) spent $62 million of his own money only to lose to Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks by just over 10 percentage points in the May election.

The second surprise is the closeness of the general election in what has performed as one of the Democratic Party’s strongest states. Former two-term Gov. Larry Hogan (R), still a popular figure in Maryland, is clearly the best candidate the Republicans could field, and he is making the race close.

Whether he can overtake Alsobrooks now that Vice President Kamala Harris is the party nominee and has activated the base voter to a greater degree than President Joe Biden, is very much in doubt. It seems what is a potential 30-point Harris victory in Maryland might be too high an obstacle for even Gov. Hogan to scale.

While this is an expensive race and one that is clearly in play, Alsobrooks must remain as at least a nominal favorite to succeed Sen. Cardin.

Michigan — Four-term incumbent Debbie Stabenow (D) was the first 2024 in-cycle senator to announce that she would not seek re-election. She yields to what has become a highly competitive race between Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) and former Rep. Mike Rogers (R).

While Michigan trends Democratic, the polling has been quite close both in this race and for the presidential campaign. Unlike most of the other states where former President Donald Trump is running either ahead or in a dead heat with Harris, the Michigan Republican Senate candidate has not lagged. In the other Senate states, and particularly those with an incumbent Democrat seeking re-election, the GOP contender is running well behind Trump’s standing.

In the Wolverine State, we see 14 polls and two tracks being conducted during the month of September. Slotkin leads in all but one, with an average percentage point edge of just over five even though she has an almost 5:1 edge in campaign resources. Outside spending has been heavy, but here Republicans have more than a three million dollar edge among the $45-plus million already expended.

While Rep. Slotkin has a small but clear advantage in this statewide campaign, a stronger than expected performance from Trump at the top of the GOP ticket could give Rogers the extra push he needs to score the upset victory.

VP Harris Holds Slight Edge in Nevada; Balance of Senate Tested; Senate Money in Maryland; Examining California’s Key Districts

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Sept. 27, 2024

President

Vice President Kamala Harris / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Nevada: New Polling Data Tracking with 2020 Result — Noble Predictive Insights tested the Nevada electorate in reference to the presidential campaign and finds Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump by only a percentage point, 48-47 percent.

Looking at the geographic division in the Noble poll and comparing it to Gov. Joe Lombardo’s (R) victorious 2022 votes received from Clark County (Las Vegas), Washoe County (Reno), and the rural Nevada areas, the Trump figures are equivalent to Lombardo’s performance in Clark and Washoe. It is the rural areas where Trump will need to slightly improve if he is to carry the state.

While he will outpace Harris by better than 2:1 in this region, Trump’s 2020 performance in the rural areas was a point behind Lombardo’s 2022 total. Considering Trump lost to then candidate Joe Biden by 2.3 percentage points here in 2020, the former president will need to improve slightly upon Lombardo’s numbers in all regions, but especially in the rural areas, if he is to compensate for his previous deficit.

Senate

FiveThirtyEight: Releases New Senate Mean Average Data — The FiveThirtyEight data organization released new mean averages for all the competitive Senate races and, for the most part, the numbers are consistent with averages publicized on other platforms.

While Democrats have relatively small but consistent leads in most of the competitive states, the Republican average is stronger (+3) in Montana, where a Tim Sheehy (R) victory over Sen. Jon Tester (D) would likely clinch an outright GOP Senate majority. The race that appears to be getting closer is in Ohio, where Sen. Sherrod Brown’s (D) average advantage has dropped to three percentage points. The candidate with the strongest average is Nevada Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) at +9.

Maryland: Big Media Buy for Hogan Allies — Reports from the Free State are indicating that the Maryland’s Future Super PAC organization, which supports former Gov. Larry Hogan (R), has been reserving $18.2 million of advertising time for between now and the election. This is twice the amount that Democratic nominee Angela Alsobrooks is spending. Expect to see a large amount of Super PAC money to come to Alsobrooks’ rescue. The Democratic leadership and her outside allies will ensure the spending gap is at least equalized.

House

California: USC Releases Polls for Key Districts — The University of Southern California and the Center for Urban Politics and Policy at Cal State University Long Beach partnered to test eight California congressional districts. Two were Democrat vs. Democrat campaigns, and another found the sample size dropping significantly below an adequate level, so the numbers in CA-22 — Rep. David Valadao (R) vs. Rudy Salas (D) — should not be considered as viable. In the two Democratic seats, Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) board member Lateefah Simon leads in Rep. Barbara Lee’s (D-Oakland) open 12th District and former San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo posts a sizable advantage in Rep. Anna Eshoo’s (D-Atherton) open 16th CD.

Interestingly, in only one of two races where the Republican candidate held a lead, the USC poll features a GOP challenger. Former state Assemblyman Scott Baugh (R) held a three-point lead over state Sen. Dave Min (D-Irvine) in an open contest where the latter man’s most prevalent negative is his highly publicized drunk driving conviction. The other leader is Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Corona) who posted only a one-point edge over former federal prosecutor and 2022 general election finalist Will Rollins (D).

The Democrats who were leading Republican incumbents were Adam Gray over Rep. John Duarte (one point difference), George Whitesides topping Rep. Mike Garcia (+2), and Derek Tran leading Rep. Michelle Steel (+2).
The pollsters interviewed 2,395 likely voters in the five congressional districts during the Sept. 14-21 period. Interestingly, the undecided voters, when pushed, leaned toward Reps. Duarte and Calvert, and for the Democratic candidate in the other three contests.

In terms of the presidential vote, Kamala Harris led in all tested districts against Donald Trump but ran an average of three percentage points behind Joe Biden’s 2020 tallies. All of these races are very much in play, and the turnout model will likely be the deciding factor.

Iowa Poll Shows Trump’s Lead at Four Points; Two Incumbents Trail in California; Close Race in VA-2

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Sept. 17, 2024

President

Former President Donald Trump ahead in Iowa.

Iowa: Selzer & Company Poll Shows Trump’s Lead at Four Points — Media stories are covering the newly released Selzer & Company Iowa poll, which has proven to be the state’s most accurate pollster. According to the Selzer survey (Sept. 8-11; 656 likely Iowa voters; live interview), former President Donald Trump’s lead over Vice President Kamala Harris is 47-43 percent, which is being cast as a closing of the race in what has proven to be a strong Trump state.

Researching the Selzer Sept. 17-19 Iowa poll in 2020, according to the Real Clear Politics polling archives, the ballot test showed a tie between Trump and candidate Joe Biden. Biden would then move onto post an eight-point victory in the succeeding election.

House

CA-22: Rep. Valadao Trailing — California’s Fresno area 22nd District is the second-most Democratic seat that elects a Republican in the country. Therefore, Rep. David Valadao (R-Hanford) is always in a difficult re-election campaign. The Normington Petts research firm returned a late August survey (part of a six district series conducted for the House Majority PAC; 8/25-27; 400 CA-22 likely voters) that finds Rep. Valadao trailing former state assemblyman and 2022 opponent Rudy Salas (D) by two percentage points, 46-44 percent.

The analysis indicates that voters oppose Project 2025, feel it would be a “rubber stamp” for a new Trump Administration, and concentrates on the abortion issue. This suggests the series is in the push poll category. It is highly doubtful that in one of the lowest turnout districts in the country respondents would be familiar enough with Project 2025, a publication from the Heritage Foundation and not any candidate or the Republican Party, to harbor such a negative opinion. It is clear, however, that this race lies in the toss-up category as this poll shows.

CA-41: Strange Polling Results — There is little doubt that Republicans lost some momentum across the board in late August, but a newly released early September survey in California’s 41st District can’t be right. RMG Research conducted a series of online polls for US Term Limits over a long sampling period. The CA-41 poll (Sept. 5-12; 450 likely CA-41 voters; online) finds 16-term Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Corona) trailing former federal prosecutor and 2022 Democratic nominee Will Rollins by a 41-35 percent split.

Calvert, who has represented the Riverside area for 32 years and defeated Rollins 52-48 percent in 2022, has to have more support than 35 percent in a district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+7. While this is again a competitive race, such a poll result, also with an unusually high undecided figure, should be considered as an outlier.

VA-2: Two Polls Show Close Race — A pair of congressional polls were released for the Tidewater area’s 2nd Congressional District. Both pollsters find close results, which is no surprise for a district that typically features tight campaigns. On the ballot is Virginia freshman Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-Virginia Beach) and businesswoman Missy Cotter Smasal (D). For the House Majority PAC — a Super PAC with ties to the Democratic leadership — Impact Research reports their results in a poll conducted in late August and part of a six district series (Aug. 20-25; 500 likely VA-2 voters; live interview) that gives Rep. Kiggans only a one point edge, 48-47 percent.

A more recent survey gives Kiggans some better news. Christopher Newport University tested the 2nd District electorate (Sept. 6-10; 792 likely VA-2 voters; live interview) and they find the congresswoman in stronger shape with a 45-40 percent edge.

House Open Seats: The Change Factor

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, August 29, 2024

House

Colorado Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Silt) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Once again, we see a large number of open seats in the US House of Representatives, something that has been common throughout the previous decade and the beginning of this one, yet in 2024 very few open seats are poised to flip to the opposite party.

In a political body where incumbent retention is extraordinarily high – in 2022 we saw 98.1 percent of House incumbents who sought re-election win – and will almost assuredly be again so in 2024, most often seats that convert to the opposite party do so in open status.

That’s not the case in 2024. Currently, we find 55 open seats, 29 coming from the Democratic column, 25 from the Republicans, with one district, AL-2, which was created as a new seat in a secondary redistricting redraw. Yet from this number, and not counting the eight seats that were open during the cycle and filled in special elections, one could argue that only 10 will either flip or see a serious competition level.

At the end of the cycle, it would not be surprising to see only those affected by a second round of redistricting flip, meaning the three seats in North Carolina changing from Democrat to Republican, and one each moving from Republican to Democrat in Alabama and Louisiana.

Therefore, of the current 55 open House seats, it appears very likely that 50 will remain with the incumbent party or flip because of redistricting. Therefore, in only five instances do we see an open seat where the controlling party might change via election.

Perhaps the most hotly contested open seat lies in southern California where Rep. Katie Porter’s (D-Irvine) Orange County-anchored 47th District should be rated as a toss-up. Former state Assemblyman Scott Baugh (R), who finished first in the jungle primary, and state Sen. Dave Min (D-Irvine), who finished second, are the general election finalists.

If the jungle primary partisan breakdown is any indication as to how this race might end, and it may well be, then this is one that could take weeks to decide under the elongated ballot counting and signature verification process that California employs.

In the qualification election, Baugh finished first with 32.1 percent while Sen. Min captured 25.9 percent. The aggregate Republican percentage total from three candidates was 49.6 percent. The total Democratic percentage dispersed through four candidates was 47.1 percent, with the remaining 3.3 percent divided among a trio of No Party Preference candidates. CA-47 leans Democratic. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as D+6, and the Daily Kos Elections statisticians, now with The Down Ballot data site, ranks the 47th as the 32nd most vulnerable seat in the House Democratic Conference.

The district that Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-CO) vacated, which covers Colorado’s western slope mountain region, should be a Republican CD. The FiveThirtyEight data team sees a GOP advantage of R+15, and The Down Ballot organization ranks the district as the 51st most vulnerable seat in the Republican Conference. Still, Democrat Adam Frisch has raised more money than all House candidates in the nation with the exception of the former House Speaker and Democratic Leader.

Though he already spent three-quarters of his money, most of which was raised when he was running against Rep. Boebert, Frisch still had almost $4 million more at his disposal in late June than new Republican nominee Jeffrey Hurd. Resources and residual name ID and losing the closest election of 2022 gives Frisch a fighting chance in what should be a safe Republican seat.

On paper, central/east Michigan’s 7th and 8th Districts appear as pure toss-ups. In actuality, with President Joe Biden taking the reconfigured 7th with a 49.4 – 48.9 percent tight victory and a slightly larger 50.3 – 48.2 percent finish in the adjacent 8th CD, as well as continuing to re-elect Democratic House members, 2024 US Senate candidate Elissa Slotkin and retiring Rep. Dan Kildee, the party has a more discernible edge than the dead even statistical calculations suggest.

This gives former state Rep. Curtis Hertel (D) and state Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet (D-Bay City) the probable advantage they will need to beat their respective Republican opponents, ex-state senator and 2022 congressional nominee Tom Barrett and three-time congressional nominee Paul Junge, respectively.

Virginia’s 7th CD, open because Democratic incumbent Rep. Abigail Spanberger is preparing a 2025 run for governor, is another seat that looks more vulnerable on paper than it does in terms of actual vote counting. The FiveThirtyEight data organization ranks the 7th, that stretches from the outer Richmond suburbs to the Washington, DC exburbs, as D+2, and it ranks as the 17th most vulnerable seat in the Democratic Conference.

President Biden, however, recorded a more comfortable 52.6 – 45.8 percent majority and Rep. Spanberger scored a 51-49 percent re-election victory even though the congresswoman faced a constituency where three-quarters of the district’s residents were not in her previous district.

In the open seat election, retired Army officer Eugene Vindman (D) has a huge resource advantage over Iraq War veteran Derrick Anderson (R). Vindman had a 7:1 fundraising advantage over Anderson according to the most recent campaign disclosure filings.

At the end of the campaign cycle, it would not be surprising to see no open seat flip to the opposite party without the aid of a new redistricting map. If so, we will see yet another unique facet of the wild 2024 election cycle.

Helmy to Serve Balance of NJ Sen. Menendez’s Term; Clear Favorite in NH-2; CA-45, PA-10 Races Tight

By Jim Ellis — Friday, August 23, 2024

Senate

George Helmy (D) has been appointed by New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy to serve the balance of Sen. Bob Menendez’s current term.

New Jersey: Menendez Drops Campaign — Sen. Bob Menendez (D), who is resigning from the Senate today due to his conviction on federal bribery charges, is also ending his Independent candidacy for re-election. Though he had little chance of winning the November election from the Independent ballot line, he was able to pay legal fees because he was an official candidate. Beginning today, he will no longer be a senator, nor a Senate candidate.

Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown) is favored to win the general election and succeed Menendez in the Senate. During the interim, Gov. Phil Murphy (D) is appointing his former chief of staff, George Helmy (D), to serve the balance of the current term.

House

AZ-3: Finally, A Result — In another of the 2024 close primary races in which the counting has dragged on for weeks, former Phoenix City Councilwoman Yassamin Ansari Tuesday was declared the official winner of the open 3rd Congressional District Democratic primary by a 39-vote margin over former state Senate Minority Leader Raquel Teran. Ansari had led since the first count on July 30, but what originally appeared to be a substantial lead dwindled in every subsequent count until the leakage finally stopped with 39 votes to spare. The total turnout was a low 38,135 votes.

AZ-3 is a safe Democratic seat – the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates it a D+44 – so winning the Democratic primary has virtually clinched the general election for Ansari. She will replace Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) who is running for the Senate.

NH-2: Open Democratic District Polling Shows Clear Favorite — St. Anselm’s College’s latest statewide poll (Aug. 13-14; 1,327 registered New Hampshire voters; 320 NH-2 Democratic primary voters; online) finds ex-Biden Administration official Maggie Goodlander leading Executive Councilor and 2016 gubernatorial nominee Colin Van Ostern by a full 10-point margin, 41-31 percent, in the open battle to succeed retiring Rep. Annie Kuster (D-Hopkinton). Though the general election could be close, the new Democratic nominee will at least have the initial advantage. The late New Hampshire primary is scheduled for Sept. 10.

CA-45: Rep. Steel in Deadlocked Poll — One of the keys to determining the next US House majority is how well the Republicans do in retaining the four Democratic seats their members hold in the Golden State. One of those is the Orange County district of two-term Rep. Michelle Steel. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the 45th as D+5, but Rep. Steel was able to secure a 52-48 percent post-redistricting re-election victory in 2022.

While initially favored to claim a third term, a just-released late July Normington Petts survey (for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee; July 29-31; 500 likely CA-45 voters; live interview & text) finds Rep. Steel and Democrat Derek Tran tied at 47 percent apiece. In a heavily Asian district (41.4 percent of the Voting Age Population), Tran has a strong advantage within the large Vietnamese population (62-30 percent) over the Korean-born Republican incumbent. We can expect another close finish in a highly competitive Orange County congressional district.

PA-10: Moving Into Toss-Up Realm — Another battleground US House contest is unfolding in the Harrisburg-York area of Pennsylvania. Though the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+9, a new poll suggests the race between six-term Rep. Scott Perry (R-Dillsburg) and former television news anchor Janelle Stelson is already a toss-up.

An Upswing Research survey (polling for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee; July 30-Aug. 2; 600 likely PA-10 voters; live interview & text) finds the challenger leading Rep. Perry with a slight 48-47 percent margin. Typically, this district has polled better for Democrats than it has actually voted, but there is little doubt that the race in this central Pennsylvania CD will be one to watch.

Sheehy Up in Montana; New Mexico Senate Race Tightens; Fong’s Opponent Drops Out; Nevada Abortion Initiative on Ballot

By Jim Ellis — Monday, July 8, 2024

Senate

Retired Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy

Montana: Sheehy Up Beyond Margin of Error — After not finding much polling data for this critically important Senate race during the early part of the election cycle, we are now seeing plentiful surveying activity. The latest poll comes from Torchlight Strategies for the Common Sense for America conservative political action committee. The study (June 22-26; 649 registered Montana voters) sees retired Navy SEAL and aerospace company CEO Tim Sheehy (R) leading three-term Sen. Jon Tester (D), 47-41 percent. Two recent surveys from Public Opinion Strategies and Fabrizio Lee & Associates both cast the Senate race as a dead heat.

Consistent with the two other most recent polls, former President Donald Trump is staked to a large lead in the Torchlight survey. The result finds Trump topping President Joe Biden, 51-35 percent. With such a strong Republican lead at the top of the ticket, thus setting the turnout model, it will be difficult for Sen. Tester to overcome what will likely be late Republican election momentum in this state.

New Mexico: Senate Race Tightens — As the presidential race grows tighter and expands into several unlikely states, a new 1892 polling organization survey (June 19-24; 600 likely New Mexico voters) posts President Biden to only a one-point New Mexico lead over Trump and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (I), 43-42-8 percent, in a state that last went for a Republican presidential nominee in 2004.

In the Senate contest, 1892 projects Sen. Martin Heinrich (D), on the ballot seeking a third term, to only a 46-42 percent advantage over former hedge fund CEO Nella Domenici, the daughter of the late six-term New Mexico US Sen. Pete Domenici (R). This is a long-shot Republican conversion opportunity that is beginning to draw more political interest.

House

CA-20: Rep. Fong’s Opponent Suspends — Through various elections and court challenges, newly elected California US Rep. Vince Fong (R-Bakersfield) has already secured his seat for a full term in the next Congress. Last week, Fong’s lone general election opponent, Tulare County Sheriff Mike Boudreaux (R), who finished behind Fong in the regular and special primary elections before losing 61-39 percent in the May 21 special general election, announced that he is suspending his regular general election campaign and endorses the new incumbent for re-election.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates CA-20, the seat of former US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R), as R+31 making it the safest Republican seat in California. The fact that Fong had placed ahead of Sheriff Boudreaux three times suggested that him winning re-election in November was becoming a virtual certainty.

States

Nevada: Abortion Initiative Qualifies –– Silver State election officials yesterday announced that the initiative to codify the state’s abortion law into the Nevada Constitution will be on the general election ballot. The Secretary of State confirmed that the movement proponents had gathered the necessary valid petition signatures to put the measure before the voters.

Under Nevada election law, initiatives must qualify in consecutive elections. Therefore, even if this abortion related measure passes in 2024, it will return for a second vote in 2026. National Democratic strategists want abortion propositions on the ballot because they will likely spur turnout among some lower propensity left-of-center voters. The Nevada Democratic strategists will highlight their candidates’ support for this particular ballot measure, in order to increase support for President Biden, Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV), and the party’s congressional nominees.

Primary Results; Biden Upside-Down in All But Five States; Surprising Poll for Endangered NY-4 Incumbent

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, June 19, 2024

Primary Results

Former Trump White House aide Brian Jack

Georgia — In the Peach State congressional runoffs, former Trump White House aide Brian Jack, as expected, cruised to a secondary election victory over state Sen. Mike Dugan (R-Carrollton). Jack recorded just under 63 percent of the vote in the preliminary count, thus virtually assuring him of winning the general election in November. He will replace retiring Congressman Drew Ferguson (R-The Rock/Carrollton) in a district the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+38.

In the 2nd District, businessman and former congressional and senatorial candidate Wayne Johnson easily defeated his Republican opponent and will now advance to the general election against 16-term veteran Rep. Sanford Bishop (D-Albany). The Democrats now have a nominee against Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Rome) in District 14. Retired Army Gen. Shawn Harris easily won his runoff election with 69 percent of the vote to claim the party nomination.

OK-4 — The Sooner State’s big race featured an expensive challenge to veteran Rep. Tom Cole (R-Moore/Norman) in the state’s southern 4th Congressional District. Cole, now chairman of the House Appropriations Committee, easily overcame more than $5 million of self-funding expenditure from his Republican primary opponent, businessman Paul Bondar, in capturing just under 65 percent of the vote.

Virginia — The top race of the evening came in Virginia’s 5th Congressional District where state Sen. John McGuire (R-Manakin Sabot) may have defeated Rep. Bob Good (R-Lynchburg) with a razor thin vote margin. It will likely be several days before we see final totals here because the post-election ballots, i.e., those coming in from overseas could make a difference in the outcome.

At this writing, McGuire holds a 315-vote lead over Rep. Good with approximately 96 percent of the vote recorded. There could be as many as 1,800 votes outstanding in addition to the 62,425 votes that the Secretary of State reports as being counted. Both men carried 12 of the district’s 24 counties. One, Appomattox County, appears to be decided in Rep. Good’s favor by just three votes.

Elsewhere in the Old Dominion, retired Navy captain and former congressional candidate Hung Cao was an easy Republican primary winner. He recorded 62 percent of the vote against four Republican opponents. Cao now advances to the general election where he will face an extreme uphill battle against veteran senator and former vice presidential nominee Tim Kaine (D).

In House District 2, businesswoman and Navy veteran Missy Cotter Smasal scored a landslide victory in the Democratic primary. Smasal will now face freshman Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-Virginia Beach) in a district that only slightly favors the Republicans. In the competitive open District 7, voters in both parties confirmed their expected nominees, retired Army Lt. Col. Eugene Vindman for the Democrats and attorney and Iraq and Afghan War veteran Derrick Anderson on the GOP side.

District 10 also featured a crowded, competitive Democratic primary, with the winner having the inside track to replace retiring Rep. Jennifer Wexton (D-Leesburg) who is leaving Congress due to a serious health issue. Her endorsed candidate, state Delegate Suhas Subramanyam (D-Loudoun County), scored a 30-27 percent victory over state Delegate Dan Helmer (D-Fairfax) and 10 others to capture the party nomination.

President

Approval Ratings: Biden Upside-Down in All But Five States — The Morning Consult organization test President Joe Biden’s job approval rating in all 50 states and sees just five where his positive reviews exceed the negative. California is the president’s strongest state where his job approval is plus-8. In the four others, his positive ratings exceed his negative in Maryland (four), New York (two), and Massachusetts and Washington (both one). In the other 45 states, the president’s job performance is under water. His most negative ratings, -63, -50, and -47, come in Wyoming, West Virginia, and North Dakota, respectively.

House

NY-4: Surprising Poll for Endangered Incumbent — McLaughlin & Associates released a poll conducted in late May (May 21-23; 400 likely NY-4 voters; live interview) that finds New York freshman Rep. Anthony D’Esposito (R-Island Park) leading the woman he defeated two years ago, former Hempstead Town Supervisor Laura Guillen, (D) by a 45-38 percent margin. The Empire State’s 4th District is the most Democratic seat a Republican holds in the nation (538: D+10), so this race is a major conversion target in 2024. It becomes one of the key seats in the nation that will determine which party controls the House majority in the next Congress.