Tag Archives: Arizona

Already Two Open Seats for 2016

Just a week has passed since the 2014 election ended and we already have two US House retirement announcements. Representatives Charlie Rangel (D-NY-13) and Mike Fitzpatrick (R-PA-8) have already made public their intention not to seek re-election in 2016.

NY-13: Before his last Democratic primary election in June, Rep. Rangel, embroiled in another close contest with state Sen. Adriano Espaillat, made a public statement that the 2014 election campaign would be his last. After his general election victory, he has now confirmed that he will not run for a 24th term in 2016.

The Democrats will keep the seat because the 13th District is one of their safest seats in the country (Obama ’12: 95 percent). Potential Democratic candidates are Espaillat, for the third time, former Gov. David Paterson, state assemblyman and Manhattan Democratic Party chairman Keith Wright, state Sen. Bill Perkins, and former assemblyman Adam Clayton Powell IV, a former congressional candidate. In 1970, Rangel defeated Powell’s father to first claim the Harlem-based congressional district.

PA-8: Back in 2004 when Rep. Fitzpatrick was first elected to the House, he made a pledge to serve just four terms in Congress. He then was defeated in 2006, only to return in 2010. Now re-elected in 2012 and 2014, he will complete eight non-consecutive years at the end of the succeeding term. Therefore, he announced Continue reading >

More Races Called: Updates

On Friday and over the weekend, six more uncalled US House campaigns officially ended. Democrats took five of the group, with the majority GOP getting a winner in central Washington State’s double Republican battle.

MD-6: As was expected when freshman Rep. John Delaney (D) moved ahead of challenger Dan Bongino (R) by about 2,000 votes with only around 5,000 remaining to count, the end quickly followed. Bongino conceded to Delaney picking up 48 percent of the aggregate vote as compared to the incumbent’s 50 percent, a margin of 2,269 votes. Considering this is a strong Democratic seat, Bongino’s close performance is a surprise and only Delaney’s strong margin from Montgomery County saved him from a shocking defeat.

CA-9: The first of three California races to be finalized is not a particular surprise, as Rep. Jerry McNerney (D) was finally projected the winner in his San Joaquin County district. This race had never been on the political board, but challenger Tony Amador (R) made it a battle. McNerney, with still votes remaining to be counted, is likely to win a final 52% of the vote.

CA-17: The double-Democrat battle between Rep. Mike Honda and former Obama Administration official and high tech attorney Ro Khanna is also over. The victory goes to Rep. Honda who wins an Continue reading >

Rounding Up the Outstanding Races

With states allowing a greater volume of absentee balloting, elections take much longer to call. Several remain in abeyance, waiting either for final votes to arrive or an arbitrary date for which to begin counting. Many of these races are in California, where hundreds of thousands of mail ballots remain uncounted.

Senate

In the Senate, aside from the Louisiana run-off now scheduled for Dec. 6, Alaska and Virginia are not yet officially called but the outcome in both cases is clear.

In the Last Frontier, it’s just a matter of time before GOP nominee Dan Sullivan is declared the winner. Waiting to count the votes from the state’s vast outlying areas, incumbent Sen. Mark Begich (D) would have to attract almost two-thirds of the remaining ballots. With a Sullivan lead over 8,000 votes, Begich trailing for the last few weeks in polling, and the very real Republican wave that we witnessed last night, it is a sure bet that we can add this incumbent to the list of defeated Democratic senators.
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Election Day is Here – Final Predictions

Today is Election Day, and this long 2014 voting cycle will now finally conclude. When the votes are finally counted, it is probable that the Republicans will gain a significant majority in the Senate and expand their controlling position in the House. But, the governors’ races could yield a much different story.

Senate

As reported yesterday, all indications suggest that the Republicans will score enough conversion victories to assume majority control in the Senate. It appears the GOP will win enough victories to claim 52 seats and it’s possible their total will go higher, maybe even to 53 or even 54 states.

Three races in Kansas (Sen. Pat Roberts), North Carolina (Sen. Kay Hagan), and New Hampshire (Sen. Jeanne Shaheen) appear to be the closest contests. The Republicans winning any two of this group would secure 54 seats for the party, assuming a run-off in Louisiana eventually goes the GOP’s way, as does Georgia, though chances of Republican David Perdue winning outright tonight have greatly improved.

House

Expect the Republicans to hit the 240 mark Continue reading >

Close Race Decided in AZ-1; Post-Primary Polls in Four Key States

AZ-1

The closest race of Tuesday night’s primary now looks to be concluded. State House Speaker Andy Tobin appears to have captured the Republican congressional nomination over rancher Gary Kiehne and state Rep. Adam Kwasman. With still two precincts not fully reported, but from an area where Tobin did well, the state legislative leader has a 36-35-29 percent margin, a 480-vote spread over his closest competitor, Kiehne.

Though this is a tight contest, such a margin is probably too large for Kiehne to overcome. So, unless there are uncounted votes elsewhere – which, often seems to happen – look for Tobin to become the Republican nominee.

Assuming the supposition of an official Tobin victory is true, the state House Speaker will now face vulnerable Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D) in what will likely be a toss-up campaign. Kirkpatrick was first elected in 2008, but lost in the midterm election of 2010 by a wide margin. She returned to win the seat again in 2012 after Continue reading >

No Surprises In Florida; Russell “Gets It” in Oklahoma; Arizona Results Roundup

Florida

The Florida primary proceeded as expected. Gov. Rick Scott won an 88 percent Republican victory; former Gov. Charlie Crist scored 74 percent on the Democratic side. With no US Senate race on the ballot this year, all of the contested federal action is in US House races. The eight challenged incumbents all broke 70 percent of the vote.

In the two congressional races of note, Miami Dade School Board member and former US Senate state director for interim Sen. George LeMieux (R), Carlos Curbelo, was an easy winner in the Miami-based 26th District. He earns the right to challenge freshman Rep. Joe Garcia (D) in what will be a highly competitive campaign.

Curbelo defeated four other Republicans, including former Rep. David Rivera who was attempting a comeback after being defeated in 2012, a result of several simultaneous scandals involving the freshman congressman and former state representative. Rivera managed to attract only eight percent of the vote last night. Curbelo topped the field with 47 percent, Continue reading >

Today’s Next-to-Last Primaries

Today marks the second-to-last major primary day of the 2014 cycle, as voters in three states visit the polls to choose nominees.

In Arizona, Republicans will select a candidate to oppose former Clinton Administration official Fred DuVal (D) in the general election. State Treasurer Doug Ducey, the former CEO of Cold Stone Creamery who is running on strong border security that earned him the support of both Texas Sen. Ted Cruz (R) and Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio, has been leading in all polling. Former Mesa Mayor Scott Smith has surpassed attorney Christine Jones for second place, but the race appears to be Ducey’s to lose.

The GOP will also choose three nominees in competitive US House districts. In the 1st, a tight race culminates among state House Speaker Andy Tobin, state Rep. Adam Kwasman, and wealthy rancher Gary Kiehne. Tobin and Kwasman are neck and neck according to late polling, but Kiehne remains within striking distance. The winner earns the right to challenge vulnerable Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D-AZ-1), who could lose as an incumbent for the second time. She was first elected in 2008, defeated in 2010, and re-elected in 2012.
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