Category Archives: Senate

Tomorrow’s Election Trio

By Jim Ellis — Monday, August 24, 2026

Tomorrow’s voting slate features only three elections: the special Republican runoff in South Carolina to determine who will replace the late Sen. Lindsey Graham on the general election ballot, the open GOP gubernatorial runoff in Oklahoma, and the special election to fill the late Rep. David Scott’s (D‑GA) seat in the Atlanta metro area.

South Carolina

The special Republican runoff to determine who will replace the late Sen. Lindsey Graham on the general election ballot is difficult to handicap. Appointed Sen. Darline Graham, who initially agreed to serve only as a caretaker, ultimately chose to run for the full six‑year term at President Trump’s urging. Though she finished first in the Aug. 11 special primary, her 33 percent showing was underwhelming.

To put her vote percentage into perspective, Darline Graham received only 57 percent of the number of votes Lindsey Graham recorded in the 2026 Republican primary just weeks before he passed away. That comparison accounts for the 28 percent turnout drop between the June 9 regular primary and the Aug. 11 special. While Sen. Graham remains the favorite heading into tomorrow’s runoff, the race is clearly fluid.

Rep. Ralph Norman (R‑Rock Hill), who risked his House seat to run for Governor and finished third in that primary, received 80,790 votes. Entering the Aug. 11 special Senate primary, he improved slightly to 82,541 votes but secured the second runoff slot.

Looking ahead to tomorrow’s runoff, it is reasonable to assume Norman can again reach or slightly exceed the 80,000‑vote mark. Whether that is enough to overtake Sen. Graham is doubtful, but turnout is likely to fall again. The compressed two‑week runoff window and only three days of early voting could suppress participation to an abnormally low level. From Rep. Norman’s perspective, the lower the turnout, the better his chances of pulling an upset.

Sen. Graham’s debate misstep – admitting she is not well‑versed on national security issues – may also give some voters pause. Norman has used the clip, though only subtly, so far avoiding a full‑scale media barrage. Graham’s advantages include her 109,000‑vote primary total and President Trump’s endorsement, along with the backing of third‑place finisher Rep. Russell Fry (R‑Murrell’s Inlet/Myrtle Beach). Whether Fry’s supporters migrate to Sen. Graham in meaningful numbers remains an open question.

Rep. Norman’s potential vote pool includes Republican base voters who were not always aligned with Lindsey Graham, and those who backed businessman Mark Lynch in both Senate primaries. Lynch’s supporters – 134,360 in the regular primary and 19,862 in the special – clearly voted against a Graham twice and could again break toward Norman.

This runoff is particularly intriguing because no polling has been released to provide any result clues. Sen. Graham must still be considered the favorite, but a close finish appears likely, and a Norman upset is possible. The winner will be favored to defeat Democrat Annie Andrews in November.

GA-13

Rep. David Scott’s (D‑Atlanta) death in April triggered tomorrow’s special runoff to fill the remainder of his term. In the July 28 special Democratic primary, his daughter, Marcye Scott, led the field with 47.6 percent in a crowded race. Because no candidate reached the 50 percent threshold, she now faces former Gwinnett School Board chairman Everton Blair, who finished second with 36.1 percent, in the runoff election.

Tomorrow’s election will determine only who completes the late Congressman’s current term. The regular general election winner will be state Rep. Jasmine Clark (D‑Lilburn), who secured the Democratic nomination through the standard nomination process. She will begin a full two‑year term on Jan. 3 when the 120th Congress convenes.

Regardless of tomorrow’s outcome, the winner’s tenure will be brief.

Oklahoma

The Oklahoma gubernatorial runoff is expected to be close, reflecting the tight finish in the open regular primary where Attorney General Gentner Drummond and former state Budget Secretary and three‑term state Sen. Mike Mazzei were separated by just 1,141 votes (Drummond 26.3 percent; Mazzei 26.0 percent). The pair finished well ahead of seven other Republican contenders.

The only published runoff survey (CHS & Associates; Aug. 2-4; 600 likely Oklahoma GOP runoff voters) shows the race deadlocked at 44 percent apiece. In the primary, AG Drummond ran strongly in the Tulsa area, while Mazzei was dominant in eastern Oklahoma.

The runoff also carries significance for President Trump. Three of his endorsed candidates lost their nomination contests last Tuesday, and his backing of Mazzei, joined by term‑limited Gov. Kevin Stitt (R), will again draw scrutiny, particularly if his preferred candidate falls short.

Tomorrow’s winner will enter the general election as the favorite against Democratic nominee Cyndi Munson, the state House Minority Leader.

New Hampshire’s Sour Mood

By Jim Ellis — Friday, August 21, 2026

New Hampshire Electorate

To see an interactive version of this map, go to:
Dave’s Redistricting Map.

As the Sept. 8 New Hampshire statewide primary approaches, St. Anselm College has released an extensive survey of the Granite State electorate – and the clearest point of consensus among respondents is that they essentially dislike everyone.

Republicans fare worse than Democrats, likely because the sample includes more Democratic primary voters, but Democratic candidates are not in positive territory either. Almost every tested figure in both parties posts strongly negative approval ratings.

The Iran War is weighing heavily on Republicans: 60 percent of respondents say they are less likely to vote for a GOP candidate while the conflict continues. Democrats face their own drag, with 54 percent saying they are less likely to support a candidate endorsed by the Democratic Socialists of America.

The St. Anselm online poll, conducted Aug. 17-18, surveyed 1,411 likely midterm voters. Of these, 733 are self-identified Democrats or Independents planning to vote in the Democratic primary, and 678 are Republicans or Independents choosing to vote in the GOP primary. Regionally, 710 respondents reside in the eastern 1st Congressional District and 701 in the western 2nd District.

Voters express deep pessimism about the direction of the country and the state. Only 28 percent believe the U.S. is headed in the right direction, compared to 65 percent who say it is on the wrong track. New Hampshire fares slightly better but still negative: 31 percent say the state is headed in the right direction, while 52 percent believe it is on the wrong track.

President Trump’s job approval stands at a woeful 37:62. Gov. Kelly Ayotte (R) is barely above water at 50:46. Two Democratic House members, Rep. Chris Pappas (D Manchester), the likely open seat Democratic Senate nominee, and Rep. Maggie Goodlander (D Nashua), were also tested. Rep. Pappas began a downward trend at 44:51, while Goodlander posts a narrow 45:43 positive rating.

The candidates fare even worse. Republican Senate contenders John E. Sununu and Scott Brown register 38:54 and 30:47, respectively. Democratic gubernatorial candidate Cinde Warmington, the likely nominee against Gov. Ayotte, is similarly upside down at 26:37.

In the open Senate race with incumbent Jeanne Shaheen (D) retiring, Rep. Pappas leads former Sen. Sununu 48-41 percent and posts a larger 49-37 percent advantage over former Massachusetts Sen. Brown. In the GOP primary, Sununu would defeat Brown 54-24 percent.

The open 1st District Democratic primary appears headed for a photo finish. Though the field includes multiple candidates, the race has effectively narrowed to former Obama Administration official Maura Sullivan and ex-Portsmouth City Councilmember Stefany Shaheen, daughter of Sen. Shaheen. The poll shows Sullivan holding a slight 26-24 percent edge.

On the Republican side, businessman Anthony DiLorenzo leads business owner Hollie Noveletsky 30-17 percent. The 1st District is traditionally one of the nation’s most competitive seats, and the short general election window will likely produce a heated contest, though the Democratic nominee begins with at least a modest advantage.

In the Governor’s race, incumbent Ayotte leads Warmington 49-38 percent. Turning to the 2nd District congressional campaign, a rematch between Rep. Goodlander and Republican Lily Tang Williams, the Congresswoman holds a 50-35 percent advantage.

President Trump has lost New Hampshire in all three of his elections, so his continued decline in the state is unsurprising. More notable is the deterioration in former Sen. Sununu’s standing against Rep. Pappas, given the Sununu family (Gov. John Sununu; Gov. Chris Sununu; US Representative & Senator John E. Sununu) and their long record of New Hampshire electoral success.

A clue to the poll’s ideological tilt appears in the “most important issue” question. In most surveys, the economy and affordability dominate. Here, the top response is elections and protecting democracy – an issue typically emphasized by the most liberal Democratic voters. Its prominence suggests a leftward sample skew.

Even with the skew, the numbers still point toward Democratic advantages in nearly every major New Hampshire race except Governor. Whether Republicans can rebound in the remaining weeks will depend on their ability to reverse perceptions on the economy and affordability – areas where they traditionally perform better, but not in this survey.

An Anti-Incumbency Fervor

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, August 20, 2026

INCUMBENTS

Florida Rep. Cory Mills (R-New Smyrna Beach), who lost his renomination bid on Tuesday, is only one in a long list of incumbents being voted out of office. / Photo by Gage Skidmore, Flickr

Tuesday’s primary produced another House incumbent defeat and saw a sitting Senator finish behind his leading general election opponent. The question now is whether the unusually high number of incumbent setbacks in both parties foreshadows broader political turbulence in November. A deeper look at the margins suggests the warning signs for incumbents are serious.

With Rep. Cory Mills (R‑FL) losing his renomination bid on Tuesday and Sen. Dan Sullivan (R‑AK) placing well behind former Rep. Mary Peltola in Alaska’s top‑four jungle primary, the tally of incumbents denied renomination now stands at 13, plus Sen. Sullivan’s failure to finish first. Eleven of the defeats have occurred in House races – seven Democrats and four Republicans – while two Senate Republicans have been denied renomination.

The near‑parity between the parties indicates that these results are not driven by overt partisanship. Instead, they reflect a broader anti‑incumbent, and likely anti- establishment, mood. Voters in both parties appear frustrated with the current governing system.

Democrats are nominating avowed socialists in several districts, while Republican base voters, particularly in Senate contests, are signaling dissatisfaction with incumbents they believe are not enacting enough of the Trump agenda.

The most telling statistic is not the number of incumbents defeated, but the margins by which they lost. These figures should concern any incumbent facing voters in November.

Among the 11 House defeats, Democratic incumbents averaged just 40.1 percent of the vote, while their challengers averaged a commanding 56.3 percent. Republican House incumbents fared only slightly better, averaging 41.7 percent to their challengers’ 52.8 percent. These are not narrow repudiations; they are decisive rejections.

The largest losses occurred on the Democratic side. In Texas, Rep. Al Green (D‑Houston) lost a redistricting‑induced incumbent pairing to newly elected Christian Menefee (D‑Houston) by a lopsided 69.3 – 30.7 percent.

While some attribute the margin to redistricting, most of the new 18th District came from Green’s long‑held 9th District, meaning he should have had the advantage. His strong opposition to President Trump was not the issue; rather, his age – approaching 80 – and 22‑year tenure likely weighed heavily against him.

The second‑largest defeat came in New York’s 10th District, where two‑term 50-year-old Rep. Dan Goldman lost 65.8 – 34.0 percent to former New York City Comptroller Brad Lander, who ran as a Democratic Socialist. Here, ideology was the driving factor, despite Goldman himself being a staunch liberal even as an heir to the Levi Strauss fortune.

On Aug. 9, another veteran Democrat, Connecticut Rep. John Larson – first elected in 1998 and nearing 80 – managed only 32.9 percent against former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin and two other challengers.

Republican Senators also lost in landslide proportion. Louisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy failed even to qualify for the runoff, receiving just 24.8 percent of the vote. In Texas, four‑term Sen. John Cornyn mustered only 36.2 percent in a runoff against scandal-tainted Attorney General Ken Paxton. Turning to Alaska, Sen. Sullivan will likely finish with roughly 43 percent against ex-Rep. Peltola, leaving him a great deal of work to do in a short period to change his trajectory for the general election.

While these primary results suggest an ominous environment for incumbents, they do not necessarily point to a partisan wave. Instead, 2026 is producing unusual and potentially revealing electoral outcomes that underscore voter restlessness across the political spectrum.

A Democratic Socialist Upset in
Florida; Alaska, Wyoming Results

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, August 19, 2026

FLORIDA

Despite former National Security Council staff member Alexander Vindman outraising state Rep. Angie Nixon (D-Jacksonville) by a 16:1 ratio ($15.9 million raised vs. $975,000 through July 29), the financial advantage failed to translate into votes.

Rep. Nixon, a Democratic Socialist candidate, scored another victory for her faction with a convincing 55-45 percent win over Mr. Vindman. Ms. Nixon now faces appointed Sen. Ashley Moody, who won her Republican nomination with just under 80 percent of the vote.

Turning to the House, two-term Rep. Cory Mills (R-New Smyrna Beach), dogged with sexual misconduct accusations, lost his 7th District renomination to former news anchorman Ryan Elijah. The challenger’s 47-34 percent victory margin translated into an 8,000-plus vote spread. Rep. Mills becomes the 11th House member to lose renomination this year.

Elijah now faces former NASA chief of staff Bale Dalton who, as predicted, won the Democratic primary. Elijah will be favored in a new 7th that carries a 56.5R – 42.5D partisan lean (Dave’s Redistricting App).

In the Governor’s race, also as expected, Rep. Byron Donalds won a convincing Republican primary victory as did former Republican and ex-Independent Congressman David Jolly in the Democratic primary. Rep. Donalds will be favored in the general election. Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) was ineligible to seek a third term.

Turning to other Florida congressional races, Austin Rogers, the former legal counsel to Sen. Rick Scott (R), won the open 2nd District Republican primary against multiple opponents. He will be favored to hold the safely Republican seat in the general election and succeed retiring Rep. Neal Dunn (R-Panama City).

In the 9th District, one of four CD’s the Republicans believe they will convert in the general election, Iraq War veteran Dan Green holds a small lead against water district board member and rancher Ben Butler in a contest that is still too close to call. The eventual Republican nominee will challenge veteran Rep. Darren Soto (D-Kissimmee).

Rep. Dan Webster (R-Claremont) is retiring, so his 11th District is open. This race is also too close to call. With approximately 1,500 votes outstanding, businessman Joe Strada leads former state Sen. Cary Baker by just under 400 votes. The Republican winner will be a heavy favorite to hold the open seat in November.

Democrats will challenge two-term Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-St. Petersburg) in a 13th District that is more Republican under the new redistricting plan. The Democratic winner, as expected, is retired Army Gen. Leela Gray. Rep. Luna is favored, but this will be a competitive November race.

Rep. Kathy Castor’s (D-Tampa) new 14th District now becomes a Republican seat under the new redistricting map. The incumbent, of course, will be a factor in the general election, but this is her first real challenge during 20 years of service in the House. The Republican winner is former state Rep. Mike Beltran who scored a convincing victory last night over seven opponents.

In the open 16th District from which veteran Rep. Vern Buchanan (R-Sarasota) is retiring, the easy winner was Trump-endorsed Sydney Gruters, the wife of Republican National Committee chairman Jon Gruters. She is now the heavy favorite opposite former Sarasota Mayor Kelly Kirschner, who won the Democratic primary.

The 19th District featured no less than five candidates who either won or sought office in other states including former US Reps. Chris Collins (R-NY) and Madison Cawthorn (R-NC). The winner, however, was Floridian Jim Schwartzel who owns a local radio station. He will replace Rep. Donalds in the congressional delegation with what promises to be a strong general election win.

In the 20th District, Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Weston) successfully moved from her previous district to capture the heavily minority seat in last night’s Democratic primary with a plurality victory. She is now again safe in the general election.

The open 22nd District, where Rep. Wasserman Schultz could have run, is another of the seats the Republicans must convert. This district begins in the Ft. Lauderdale suburbs and stretches to the Gulf of America.

Businessman Casey Askar was the convincing Republican winner. He will now face technology executive Pia Dandiya who scored a 69 percent Democratic primary winner. Askar begins the general election in the favorite’s position.

Rep. Frederica Wilson (D-Miami Gardens) is retiring from her 24th District, the safest Democratic seat in the state under the new map, and her hand-picked successor, Miami-Dade County Commissioner Oliver Gilbert, won a close Democratic primary victory over state Sen. Shevrin Jones (D-Miami) and five others. Gilbert is now a lock to win the general election.

Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D-Parkland) chose to run in the new District 25, which is the fourth seat the Republicans have targeted to flip. Rep. Moskowitz won a decisive Democratic primary in a new district where more Democrats voted in the primary than Republicans. Rep. Moskowitz’s opponent in the general election will be Boca Raton Mayor Scott Singer who won a crowded GOP primary.

The new 25th contains about half of Rep. Moskowitz’s previous 23rd CD, but the carryover section has more Republicans than Democrats. The partisan lean of 52.3R – 47.0D (Dave’s Redistricting App) gives Mr. Singer a slight edge.

Finally, in District 27, Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (R-Miami) will face, as expected, former news anchor Elliott Rodriguez in the general election. Rodriguez’s 53-47 percent victory over congressional aide Robin Peguero was weaker than expected, however.

ALASKA

The Senate race was the big story of the evening as former Rep. Mary Peltola (D) looks to be finishing a bit ahead of Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) with Republican Daniel Sullivan Jr. finishing a distant third. Republican Gerald Heikes and Democrat David Leslie are in a tight battle for fourth place.

Third and fourth are important even though the involved candidates are getting just one and two percent of the vote, because the top four finishers advance to the general election.

Count on there being a great deal of political maneuvering after these votes are finalized as it relates to the third and fourth slots. Individuals qualifying from those positions have the option of withdrawing. The Alaska Senate contest has already been polling close, and last night’s results confirmed the early surveys.

In the open Governor’s race, though the first and second place finishers are Democrats, former state Representative Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins and ex-state Sen. Tom Begich, the total Republican vote spread among a dozen candidates tallied 13,000 more votes than the Democratic aggregate total.

The third-place finisher appears locked for Republican former radio talk show host Bernadette Wilson. The fourth qualifying position is up for grabs as more than one-third of the vote remains to be tallied at this writing. Former Independent Gov. Bill Walker could only manage to attract 4.1 percent through the preliminary counting process and will not advance into the general election.

In the House, at-large Rep. Nick Begich III (R-Chugiak) secured the first position and could possibly exceed majority support when all votes are counted. The second qualifier is Independent Bill Hill, while the third and fourth positions appear headed to Democrats. The primary vote solidifies Rep. Begich’s position as the definitive front runner for re-election.

WYOMING

At-large Rep. Harriet Hageman (R-Cheyenne) easily clinched the open Republican Senate primary with a 65 percent victory percentage over two opponents. She will advance to the general election against Democrat James Byrd, a former state Representative. Rep. Hageman becomes a prohibitive favorite to win the general election and succeed retiring Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R).

In the open Governor’s race, state Sen. Eric Barlow (R-Green River) claimed the Republican nomination defeating Trump endorsed Megen Degenfelder, the state Superintendent of Public Instruction, and retired Marine Corps Col. Brent Bien. Sen. Barlow advances to the general election against the new Democratic nominee, restaurant owner Ken Casner who was unopposed in his primary. Sen. Barlow is a lock to win the Governorship in November and succeed retiring Gov. Mark Gordon (R).

Secretary of State and former state Rep. Chuck Gray won the Republican nomination defeating businessman Steve Friess and former Bureau of Land Management Official Kevin Christensen among others. The Democratic winner is former state Sen. Lisa Kinney. As with the other two open statewide races, Gray will also be a prohibitive favorite to win the general election and replace Rep. Hageman as Wyoming’s lone US Representative.

CA-14 Special Election

A close special election to immediately replace resigned Rep. Eric Swalwell (D) will likely take several days if not more than a week to finalize under California’s elongated ballot counting system. At this writing, state Sen. Aisha Wahab (D-Hayward) leads Bay Area Rapid Transit board member and former Dublin Mayor Melissa Hernandez (D) by a tight 51-49 percent count with about 60 percent of the projected votes counted.

Regardless of this special election final outcome, both Sen. Wahab and Hernandez will compete in the regular general election because each advanced from the June 2 jungle primary. The special election winner will immediately take the seat and serve the balance of the current term.

Alaska & Wyoming Primaries Today

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, August 18, 2026

Yesterday, we covered the Florida primary, which will be the most interesting primary election state this evening, but voters in Alaska and Wyoming will also make some key nomination decisions.

ALASKA

The open Governor’s race will attract the most attention in the Last Frontier as 12 Republicans, two Democrats, and three Independents, and their Lieutenant Governor running mates, battle to secure one of four general election slots in the jungle primary.

With Gov. Mike Dunleavy (R) term-limited, the large field is jockeying for position in tonight’s qualifying election with the goal placing at least fourth. In the Alaska system, the top four finishers advance to the general election regardless of political party affiliation or percentage attained.

It is virtually assured that former state Sen. Tom Begich (D), brother of ex-US Sen. Mark Begich (D) and uncle to current Republican at-large Congressman Nick Begich III, will qualify because only two Democrats are included in the large field.

Originally, it was believed Begich was a placeholder for former at-large Congresswoman Mary Peltola (D). In fact, Begich said publicly at the time of his announcement that he would end his campaign if Peltola decided to run for Governor. When she instead opted for a race against Sen. Dan Sullivan (R), Begich remained as a gubernatorial candidate.

On the Republican side, Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom (R) deciding not to run for Governor meant the GOP no longer had a clear favorite. Some of the more prominent Republican contenders, largely comprised of ex-state legislators, are Attorney General Treg Taylor, former Anchorage Mayor Dave Bronson, and ex-conservative radio talk show host Bernadette Wilson.

Among the three Independents is former Alaska Gov. Bill Walker, who served one term after unseating then-Gov. Sean Parnell (R) in the 2014 election. Gov. Walker would later suspend his 2018 re-election campaign that led to Dunleavy defeating former Sen. Mark Begich who was the Democratic gubernatorial nominee.

The Senate race will be less dramatic as Sen. Sullivan and Peltola will easily capture the first two general election slots among the 15 candidates including an Independent named Dan Sullivan. Peltola has been running a couple points ahead of Sen. Sullivan in early polling so the order of finish tonight could prove interesting.

In the at-large House race, Rep. Begich will secure the first general election ballot slot. Twelve contenders are opposing Begich, and it is difficult to ascertain which of them will advance. In any event, the Congressman will be a heavy favorite for re-election.

WYOMING

The Equality State is also an at-large congressional domain, and all three of their major offices on the 2026 ballot are open. Gov. Mark Gordon (R) is ineligible to seek a third term, though many believed he might challenge the state’s term limit law since others doing so have prevailed, but such did not happen; therefore, a competitive open Republican primary will be decided tonight.

Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R) is retiring after one term, and her replacement will be at-large Rep. Harriet Hageman (R-Cheyenne). The battle to replace the Congresswoman, however, will be a hotly contested affair.

The Wyoming system features a partisan plurality primary, so each party will nominate their candidates tonight irrespective of percentage attained.

Four Republicans are on the gubernatorial ballot including Trump endorsed Superintendent of Public Instruction Megen Degenfelder. Her principal opponent is state Senator and former state House Speaker Eric Barlow (R-Green River). Tonight’s winner becomes the next Governor in this safest of Republican states.

While at-large Rep. Hageman appears to be a lock to succeed retiring Sen. Lummis, the open House election features a crowded Republican field.

The key participants among the nine-person field are businessman Steve Friess, son of the late Republican mega-donor and ex-gubernatorial candidate Foster Friess, Secretary of State Chuck Gray, and several sitting and former state legislators. The Republican winner will succeed Hageman in the US House.

Florida Primary Preview

By Jim Ellis — Monday, August 17, 2026

Voters in another three states, Alaska, Florida, and Wyoming, vote tomorrow as the primary season begins to draw to a close. Next week, we will see the Oklahoma Governor and South Carolina Senate runoff elections before Delaware, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Rhode Island end the national nomination process in September.

Today, we look at a very busy Florida primary. Tomorrow, we preview Alaska and Wyoming.

Senate

Appointed Sen. Ashley Moody (R), who won two statewide races as Attorney General before Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) tabbed her to replace Marco Rubio when he was appointed US Secretary of State, is on the ballot to serve the remaining two years of the current Senatorial term. She faces only minor opposition in tomorrow’s primary election.

Sen. Moody’s likely Democratic general election opponent will be retired Lieutenant Colonel and ex-National Security Council staff member Alexander Vindman whose twin brother, Eugene Vindman, is a Virginia Congressman. Vindman’s main competition tomorrow is state Rep. Angie Nixon (D-Jacksonville), but Vindman is viewed as a prohibitive favorite for the party nomination.

Early polling suggests a competitive general election, nothing new for Florida polling, but considering voting history and the Republican lopsided voter registration advantage (almost 1.6 million more Republicans than Democrats), Sen. Moody must be considered a decided favorite.

Governor

A total of 29 Republican, Democratic, minor party, Independent, and qualified write-in candidates are competing to replace term-limited Gov. DeSantis. On the Republican side, Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Naples) has been the clear polling leader for the entire campaign and though polling shows a tightening race as we move toward tomorrow’s election, Donalds remains the favorite. His top opponents, among the 11 Republican contenders, are investment firm CEO James Fishback and Lt. Gov. Jay Collins.

Among the six Democrats, former Congressman, ex-Republican and ex-Independent David Jolly appears as the clear leader for the party nomination after Orange County Executive Jerry Demings suspended his campaign due to health reasons.

House

The new Florida redistricting map faces its first ballot test tomorrow, and we first see 2025 special election winners Jimmy Patronis (R-Fort Walton Beach) and Randy Fine (R-Melbourne Beach) on the ballot for their first full term. Both have primary opposition tomorrow, but each is expected to easily win renomination. In the remaining 26 districts, 13 feature nomination competition, including seven open seats.

It is vitally important for national Republicans that the GOP candidates convert the four targeted CDs. Failing to flip all four of the weakened Democratic seats and keeping the 20 seats the party already controls would likely mean relinquishing House majority status.

FL-2

Rep. Neal Dunn (R-Panama City) is retiring, and the Republican primary is a projected contest between self-funding businessman Keith Gross, who unsuccessfully challenged Sen. Rick Scott in the 2024 Republican primary, and former congressional aide and businessman Austin Rogers. Florida Republican Party chairman Evan Power is also a significant candidate. Democrats feature a four-person primary, but tomorrow’s Republican winner will be the prohibitive general election favorite.

FL-7

Two-term House incumbent Cory Mills (R-New Smyrna Beach) has scandal problems involving women, so tomorrow’s primary could see yet another US Representative fail to win renomination. A just-released survey from Capitol Strategic Partners conducted over the weekend (Aug. 14-15; 929 likely FL-7 Republican primary voters; live interview & text) found former television news anchor Ryan Elijah leading Rep. Mills by a substantial 44-27 percent clip. Nominating Elijah would likely improve Republican chances of holding the seat in November.

Democrats are looking toward former NASA chief of staff Bale Dalton who has already out fundraised Rep. Mills by approximately $500.000. Also on the Democratic ballot is former 9th District Congressman Alan Grayson making yet another attempt at returning to Congress, but he is not viewed as a significant contender.

FL-9

The new Republican map suggests that Rep. Darren Soto’s (D-Kissimmee) 9th District is at the top of the GOP conversion list if they are to gain four seats in the Florida delegation. Seven Republicans are competing for the party nomination and the chance to face Rep. Soto in a more favorable district. According to the Dave’s Redistricting App (DRA) statisticians, the new FL-9 partisan lean is 58.9R – 40.2D, a complete reversal from the 58.8D – 39.1R calculation in the 2021 map.

The leading Republican primary contenders appear to be former Deputy Assistant Defense Department Secretary Dan Green, and former congressional candidates Thomas Chalifoux and Jorge Martinez.

FL-11

Rep. Dan Webster (R-Clermont) is retiring after serving what will be eight congressional terms after 18 years in the state legislature where he became Speaker of the House and Majority Leader of the state Senate. Tomorrow’s Republican winner will become a prohibitive favorite in the general election. A tight race is expected. Businessman Joe Strada has loaned his campaign $5 million, but it remains to be seen if such an investment will mean victory at the polls.

FL-13

The new Republican map gives two-term Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-St. Petersburg) a net seven Republican percentage point gain which will help improve her victory chances in November. Tomorrow’s likely Democratic winner is retired Army Brigadier General Leela Gray.

FL-14

Another of the four districts the Republicans must flip is 10-term US Rep. Kathy Castor’s (D-Tampa) 14th CD. The previous 14th was solidly Democratic, but the new version favors Republicans. The 2026 DRA partisan lean is 55.5R – 43.4D, which should give a new GOP nominee the inside track toward unseating the veteran incumbent.

Eight Republicans are vying for the nomination meaning the GOP will likely have a general election contender who only won with plurality Republican support. Former state Reps. Kevin Steele and Mike Beltran are among the leading contenders.

FL-16

Rep. Vern Buchanan (R-Sarasota) is retiring after serving 10 terms in the House and replacing him will almost assuredly be former US Department of Agriculture official Sidney Gruters, the wife of Republican National Committee chairman Jon Gruters. Armed with an endorsement from President Trump, Ms. Gruters is a lock for the nomination tomorrow night and should easily defeat the new Democratic nominee. The new 16th CD carries a DRA partisan lean of 56.6R – 42.6D, and Ms. Gruters will be a heavy favorite in November.

FL-19

The Ft. Myers-Cape Coral-Naples congressional district race is one of the most interesting in that some of the leading candidates have served in public office from other states. Former Reps. Chris Collins (R-NY), Madison Cawthorn (R-NC), and Illinois state Senator and multi-time congressional and statewide candidate Jim Oberweis, along with former congressional candidates Ola Hawatmeh (NY) and Catalina Lauf (IL) are all battling to succeed Rep. Donalds. Three candidates from Florida, including radio station owner Jim Schwartzel, are also on the ballot.

Tomorrow night’s outcome will be interesting as there is no clear leader. The ultimate winner, however, will advance to Congress in the general election.

FL-20

With the resignation of Rep. Sheila Cherfulis McCormick, though she is a candidate in tomorrow’s election despite facing multiple federal corruption indictments, the 20th CD is one of only four designed Democratic seats in the state. The big news here is whether Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Weston) can move into this district, which is 70 percent minority, and claim another term in Congress. Early polling suggests she may be able to construct a plurality winning coalition.

FL-22

The new 22nd District that now stretches across the southern Florida peninsula from the Ft. Lauderdale suburbs to the Gulf of America should elect a Republican, though with a 54.4R – 44.9D partisan lean, is one of the weaker GOP seats. We can expect to see general election competition for whomever comes through the crowded big spending GOP primary tomorrow night. The leading contenders appear to be businesswoman Belinda Keiser and crypto currency company executive Michael Carbonara.

FL-24

The new 24th District with a DRA partisan lean of 73.0D – 26.2D is the strongest Democratic district in the state. Rep. Frederica Wilson (D-Miami Gardens) is retiring, and the battle to replace her lies solely within tomorrow’s Democratic primary.

The contest appears to be a three-way battle among Miami-Dade County Commissioner Oliver Gilbert, who has raised the most money and has outgoing Rep. Wilson’s support, physician Rudy Moise, and Kendrick Meek Jr., the son of former Congressman Kendrick Meek Sr. The compact Broward/Miami-Dade district includes the cities of Hollywood, Miami Gardens, Miramar and part of Miami.

FL-25

Two-term Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D-Parkland) is choosing to seek re-election in the new 25th District because his previous 23rd CD was drastically changed and where Rep. Lois Frankel (D-West Palm Beach) chose to run. Rep. Moskowitz believes he can win the district because about half of his 23rd CD constituency lies in the new 25th. His problem, however, is the most Republican areas of the previous 23rd came over to the new Atlantic Ocean coastal district that stretches from Deerfield Beach to South Beach.

The Republican primary is an expensive one with five Republican candidates spending over $600,000 apiece on their campaigns according to the most recent Federal Election Commission campaign finance report (July 29 pre-primary report).

The leading candidate figures to be Boca Raton Mayor Scott Singer who also leads the field in fundraising with $2.2 million raised. The other competitive candidates are investment company executive Dan Franzese, ex-state Rep. George Moraitis, businesswoman Raven Harrison, and frequent GOP candidate Joe Kaufman. One of these contenders, likely Mayor Singer, will prove a strong competitor for Rep. Moskowitz.

FL-27

Three-term Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (R-Miami) can expect another competitive general election in a district that the new map only slightly changed. Her likely Democratic opponent is former television news anchor Elliott Rodriguez who is expected to easily win his party’s primary tomorrow night.

Incumbent Defeats Mount
As 2026 Primaries Unfold

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, August 13, 2026

Primaries

A total of 43 states have now conducted their primary elections, and we have already seen 12 incumbents – 10 in the House and two in the Senate; seven Democrats and five Republicans – fail to win renomination. This is an unusually high number, particularly in the House, but whether it signals a coming major change general election is difficult to determine at this stage. Even so, the pattern offers several notable clues.

One of the most striking findings is the large average defeat margin (16 percentage points) among the 12 incumbents. Such lopsided results suggest an electorate that is, at minimum, frustrated with the current political status quo.

The fact that incumbents in both parties have lost – and that almost all did so by substantial margins – indicates that voters on opposite ideological ends are expressing dissatisfaction, albeit for different reasons. Democratic electorates are clearly gravitating toward more ideologically extreme candidates, while Republican voters appear discontent with what they perceive as slow pace of achievement from the officeholders they have routinely elected.

In the House, seven Democrats and three Republicans have been denied another term. Of the seven Democratic defeats, only Reps. Adriano Espaillat (D‑NY) and Shri Thanedar (D‑MI) lost by margins within four percentage points.

Among the remaining 10 House defeats, the average margin of victory exceeded 17 percentage points. Two races set the high‑water mark: Rep. Al Green (D‑TX) losing to fellow Rep. Christian Menefee (D‑TX) by 38.6 points, and Rep. Dan Goldman (D‑NY) falling to former New York City Comptroller Brad Lander by 31.8 points.

Three defeats occurred within the past two weeks – Reps. Thanedar, Andy Ogles (R‑TN), and John Larson (D‑CT) – demonstrating that the trend is not confined to any single moment in the cycle. Incumbents have now fallen in March, May, June, and August, pointing to a broader and more persistent wave of discontent.

Of the 12 defeats, eight can reasonably be attributed to ideological or partisan motivations. On the Democratic side, incumbents who lost to candidates publicly identifying as Democratic Socialists – Reps. Espaillat, Goldman, and Diana DeGette (D‑CO) – were rejected because they were not far enough to the political left. Though Rep. Thanedar did not lose to a self‑identified Democratic Socialist, state Rep. Donovan McKinney (D‑Detroit) campaigned aggressively on the argument that the incumbent was not sufficiently liberal.

On the Republican side, the dynamic was the reverse: incumbents were deemed as not suitably conservative. This was most evident in Sen. John Cornyn’s (R‑TX) loss to Attorney General Ken Paxton, and retired Navy SEAL Ed Gallrein defeating Rep. Thomas Massie (R‑KY), aided by former President Trump’s very public criticism of Massie’s votes against the MAGA agenda.

Sen. Bill Cassidy (R‑LA) faced similar pressure to that of Rep. Massie, failing even to qualify for the runoff after finishing 20 points behind first‑place finisher Rep. Julia Letlow (R‑Start), who received President Trump’s endorsement. The President became actively involved in the race because he wanted to see Sen. Cassidy, who voted for impeachment in 2021, fail to win renomination.

Though ideology may not have been the principal factor in Rep. Dan Crenshaw’s (R‑TX) 15‑point defeat, challenger Steve Toth (R‑The Woodlands) clearly ran to Crenshaw’s right.

Two incumbents – Reps. Green and Larson – lost primarily due to age‑related concerns, as younger challengers capitalized on generational contrasts. About a dozen elderly Democratic incumbents were challenged by younger opponents who used the generation gap as a principal reason for voters to turn away from the incumbent and a pair of the upstarts were successful.

Two others fell for distinct reasons. Rep. Julie Johnson (D‑TX) lost to former Rep. Colin Allred largely because Allred was better known to Democratic voters and Johnson was forced into unfamiliar territory under the new Texas map. Rep. Ogles lost to former Agriculture Commissioner Charlie Hatcher (R) due to a campaign‑finance scandal and seeing substantially new territory, including the city of Memphis, added to his district under the new Tennessee redistricting map.

While each defeat has its own unique circumstances, the sheer volume and the average double-digit margin across the 12 races are already reverberating through general election campaigns.

It remains to be seen whether any additional incumbents will fall in the remaining seven primaries, and how many more may lose in November. Expect campaigns to begin making strategic adjustments as we move into political prime time after Labor Day.

Graham to Runoff; Flanagan Wins; Rep. Larson Loses in Connecticut

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, August 12, 2026

Connecticut delivered the biggest surprise of another active primary night. Rep. John Larson (D‑Hartford), seeking a 15th term, lost his renomination bid by 20 percentage points to former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin. Bronin will have little trouble holding the seat in November. Rep. Larson becomes the 10th US House incumbent to lose renomination this year and the seventh Democrat.

In Wisconsin, state Rep. Francesca Hong (D‑Madison) entered the gubernatorial primary as an average 20‑point favorite, but in a surprisingly close finish she appears to have narrowly lost to Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, who had previously suspended his campaign.

For the second consecutive week, the polling community badly missed a race involving a Democratic Socialist candidate. In both the Wisconsin Governor and Michigan Senate contests, multiple pollsters projected major victories for Democratic Socialist contenders, and in each case the predictions proved wrong. Hong fell short, and Michigan’s Abdul El‑Sayed edged his principal Democratic opponent by just one percentage point despite averaging a 15‑point lead.

In South Carolina’s high‑profile Senate primary, appointed Sen. Darline Graham and Rep. Ralph Norman (R‑Rock Hill) advanced to an Aug. 25 Republican runoff election. Graham recorded only 33 percent of the vote, meaning 67 percent of the roughly 335,000 GOP primary voters chose another candidate.

Rep. Norman, who lost the Governor’s race in June, finished second with 25 percent. Rep. Russell Fry (R‑Murrell’s Inlet/Myrtle Beach) placed third at 20 percent but remains on the November ballot as the Republican nominee in his 7th Congressional District.

Minnesota also featured a major campaign contest. Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, aligned with the Democratic Socialists, defeated Rep. Angie Craig (D‑Prior Lake) by a 59-40 percent margin. Flanagan advances to face former national sports reporter Michele Tafoya, who easily won the Republican primary. Some believe this race is a Republican sleeper for November.

In other races …

Alabama

Three significant post‑redistricting primaries were held yesterday. Former Rep. Jerry Carl, who lost his 2024 Republican primary after being redistricted into an incumbent pairing with Rep. Barry Moore (R‑Enterprise), appears poised to return to Congress. Under the 2026 map, which restores the Mobile metropolitan area as the 1st District’s major population anchor, Carl scored a commanding 75 percent victory in the Republican primary.

In the new 2nd District, state Rep. Rhett Marques (R‑Enterprise) won a convincing Republican primary as expected. He advances to face Rep. Shomari Figures (D‑Mobile) in a southeastern Alabama district that now favors the GOP. The AL‑2 contest is a major Republican conversion target on the national House map.

In the Birmingham area, Rep. Gary Palmer (R‑Hoover/Shelby County) was easily renominated and is well positioned for another term in November. In the neighboring 7th District, educator Ammie Akin captured the Republican nomination but will be a heavy underdog against Rep. Terri Sewell (D‑Birmingham) in the state’s lone Democratic seat.

Connecticut

In the Constitution State’s other notable race, Gov. Ned Lamont (D) easily secured renomination for a third term, defeating state Rep. Josh Elliott (D‑Guilford) with 68 percent of the vote. Gov. Lamont will be a prohibitive favorite in the fall campaign against state Sen. Ryan Fazio (D‑Greenwich).

Minnesota

In addition to Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and former national sportscaster Michele Tafoya winning the Democratic and Republican Senate nominations, Sen. Amy Klobuchar scored a dominant 90 percent victory in the open Democratic gubernatorial primary. She will face state House Speaker Lisa DeMuth (R‑Cold Spring), who defeated My Pillow founder Mike Lindell in the GOP primary. Sen. Klobuchar enters the general election as the clear favorite to succeed outgoing Gov. Tim Walz (D).

In the open 2nd Congressional District, state Sen. Matt Little (D‑Lakeville) easily won the Democratic primary. State Sen. Eric Pratt (R‑Prior Lake), unopposed for the Republican nomination, will meet Little in what is expected to be a competitive race to replace Rep. Angie Craig.

Vermont

Economist Amanda Janoo slipped past University of Vermont Medical Center Board chair Aly Richards to win the Democratic gubernatorial nomination. Janoo will now challenge Gov. Phil Scott who was unopposed for a sixth term on the Republican side. Despite Vermont’s strong Democratic voting history, Gov. Scott is once again favored for re-election.

Wisconsin

In addition to Crowley winning the right to challenge Rep. Tom Tiffany (R-Minocqua) in the open gubernatorial general election, several congressional primaries were decided.

In the politically marginal 3rd District, Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R‑Prairie du Chien) will again face businesswoman Rebecca Cooke (D) in a rematch of their 51-49 percent contest from 2024. This will be one of the cycle’s top national House campaigns.

In a crowded 1st District Democratic primary, nurse Mitchell Berman prevailed with 40 percent of the vote. Berman advances to the general election as a decided underdog to four‑term Rep. Bryan Steil (R‑Janesville).

In the open 7th District, podcast producer Michael Alfonso – son‑in‑law of US Transportation Secretary and former 7th District Congressman Sean Duffy, and backed by President Trump – won the Republican primary against four opponents. He now becomes a heavy favorite to defeat new Democratic nominee Fred Clark, a former state Representative.

El-Sayed’s Close Primary Win;
Results Wrap-Up From Four States

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, August 5, 2026

The marquee race of the Aug. 4 primary night – the Michigan Senate Democratic primary race – came down to a small number of votes, which defied the polling projections. Former Wayne County Health/Human/Veterans Department director Abdul El-Sayed was projected late last night as a close winner over Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham). The night began with El-Sayed initially tallying up a large lead, but Stevens consistently chipped away until the final El-Sayed margin should be approximately 20,000 votes from more than 1.4 million Democratic primary votes cast.

Nine different July pollsters all forecast a large El-Sayed lead, one where he was averaging just under a 15-percentage point advantage, but the final margin proved razor thin. Abdul El-Sayed now faces former seven-term Congressman and 2024 US Senate nominee Mike Rogers, who was unopposed in the Republican primary. The Michigan general election is likely to be the key to which party will hold the Senate majority in the new Congress.

Kansas

The open Governor’s race for both parties was the premier draw in last night’s Kansas primary. State Senate President Ty Masterson (R-Andover) was an easy winner for the Republicans, who are aiming to convert the Governor’s office back to their party after what will be eight years of Democratic control under term-limited state chief executive Laura Kelly.

On the Democratic side in a battle between two state Senators, Cindy Holscher (D-Overland Park) defeated Gov. Kelly’s endorsed candidate, Ethan Corson (D-Prairie Village). The general election is expected to be competitive. Republican primary turnout exceeded the Democratic numbers, which gives Sen. Masterson a boost as the candidates turn toward November.

Michigan

Beyond the close Senate race, voters chose nominees in the Governor’s campaign. As predicted, Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson recorded a landslide victory in the Democratic primary. For the Republicans, Rep. John James (R-Farmington Hills), who has twice come close in statewide campaigns, won the party nomination with just over 50 percent of the vote against three Republican candidates, though one of them ended his active campaign last week.

Looking at the state’s voting history and the strong Democratic primary turnout as compared to the Republican number, Benson will begin the general election race as the favorite.

In the House races, we first look toward the western 4th District. Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Holland) will attract more than 80 percent of the final Republican primary vote. His opponent, as expected for the competitive general election, is state Sen. Sean McCann (D-Kalamazoo), an easy Democratic primary winner.

In the 7th District, which is likely to be the most competitive race in the general election, freshman Rep. Tom Barrett (R-Charlotte/Lansing) was unopposed for renomination. His general election opponent will be political activist William Lawrence who scored a 43 percent Democratic primary victory over former US Ambassador Bridget Brink and retired Navy SEAL Matt Maasdam.

In the open 10th District that Rep. James vacated to run for Governor, National Guard officer and Iraq War veteran Michael Bouchard Jr., son of the long-time Oakland County Sheriff and ex-statewide candidate, recorded a 73 percent victory over three Republican opponents. For the Democrats, in what promises to be a very tight general election, former Macomb County Prosecutor nominee Christina Hines defeated two Democratic opponents with 46 percent of the vote.

Turning to Rep. Stevens’ open 11th District, state Senate President Pro Tempore Jeremy Moss captured 41 percent of the vote against three Democratic opponents to clinch the party nomination. He now becomes the prohibitive favorite to win the general election in a safely Democratic seat.

The 13th District Democratic primary challenge to Rep. Shri Thanedar (D-Detroit) could end in deposing the incumbent. With just under half the vote counted, state Rep. Donovan McKinney (D-Detroit) leads Rep. Thanedar, 51-49 percent, in a race that is still too close to call.

Missouri

With no Senate or Governor’s race on the ballot, the US House races led the ballot.

In the 1st District, former Congresswoman Cori Bush launched a political comeback attempt against the man who defeated her in the 2024 Democratic primary, current Congressman Wesley Bell (D-St. Louis).

Last night, Rep. Bell posted a strong 59-37 percent victory over the former Congresswoman and “Squad” member. Winning the Democratic primary in this St. Louis district is tantamount to claiming the general election, so Rep. Bell is virtually guaranteed re-election in November.

In the redistricted 5th CD, state Sen. Rick Brattin (R-Kansas City) was the clear Republican primary winner. He will now face Rep. Emanuel Cleaver (D-Kansas City) in a district that does not resemble the downtown Kansas City seat that the Congressman has represented since the beginning of 2005. Now the 5th District is a Republican seat that stretches into the state’s rural areas, and Rep. Cleaver must be considered an underdog for the general election.

The MO-5 race now becomes a must-win Republican campaign if the GOP is to have a chance at holding their slim national majority.

The open 6th District was decided last night in the Republican primary. There, radio talk show host Chris Stigall, who carried retiring 13-term Congressman Sam Graves’ (R-Tarkio) endorsement, won last night’s Republican primary with 44 percent of the vote over four Republican opponents. Stigall will cruise to victory in the general election from this safe Republican northwestern Missouri congressional seat.

Virginia

In the US Senate race, Republicans chose retired Army Major General Bert Mizusawa to oppose Sen. Mark Warner (D) who is on the ballot for a fourth term. The Senator had no Democratic opposition. Sen. Warner is expected to glide to another November victory. The Senator says this new term will be his last as he will not seek re-election in 2032.

No surprises in the key competitive House races. In the 1st District, Henrico County Commonwealth Attorney Shannon Taylor easily won the Democratic primary against six Democratic opponents. Taylor will now challenge veteran Rep. Rob Wittman (R-Montrose) in the general election.

In the Tidewater-anchored 2nd District, former Rep. Elaine Luria won a landslide Democratic primary victory opposite three opponents. The Luria victory sets up a rematch of the 2022 campaign between she and two-term Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-Virginia Beach).

In the mid-state 5th District, another former House member is attempting a political comeback. Former Rep. Tom Perriello scored a big Democratic primary win and will now challenge freshman Rep. John McGuire (R-Manakin-Sabot) who also won renomination in a landslide proportion. In a good sign for Rep. McGuire, Republican primary turnout far exceeded his Democratic counterparts’ participation figure.

In the Alexandria-Arlington 8th District, veteran Rep. Don Beyer (D-Alexandria) won renomination with two-thirds of the Democratic primary vote against four opponents.

Washington

The all-mail Washington ballots were reported quickly, because the state election officials allow the counting and release of the vote totals after the polls close. Therefore, result reporting is quick. Approximately 50 percent of the projected vote total came through early voting.

In the 3rd District, with under 60 percent of the vote counted, it is clear that Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-Skamania County) and state Senate Minority Leader John Braun (R-Chehalis) will advance to the general election. The early vote totals have Rep. Perez and Sen. Braun virtually even, again suggesting that this will be a premier general election campaign and a likely must-win for the GOP if they are to hold the majority.

The open 4th District sees Yakima County Commissioner Amanda McKinney (R) and retired Air Force officer John Duresky advancing to the general election. The open 4th District (Rep. Dan Newhouse-R retiring) is one of two safe Republican seats in the state. This gives McKinney the clear inside track to claiming the general election in November.

In the Spokane-anchored 5th District, freshman Rep. Michael Baumgartner (R-Spokane) captured just about 50 percent of the early vote and has clinched the first general election slot. It appears that Democratic retired US diplomat Carmela Conroy will also advance. Rep. Baumgartner will be favored for re-election.

Primary Preview:
Missouri, Virginia, and Washington

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, August 4, 2026

In addition to the Michigan primary, which we covered extensively yesterday, three other states, Missouri, Virginia, and Washington, are holding primaries today. Only Virginia features a statewide contest, and even that race is headed for a non‑competitive general election.

>Missouri

The state’s eight congressional campaigns lead the 2026 ballot in the Show Me State. The major primary battles are occurring in Rep. Emanuel Cleaver’s (D‑Kansas City) newly redrawn 5th District and the open 6th District, where Republican voters will choose a successor to retiring Rep. Sam Graves (R‑Tarkio). Additionally, freshman Rep. Wesley Bell (D‑St. Louis) faces a rematch with the woman he defeated in 2024, former US Rep. Cori Bush.

In the St. Louis-anchored 1st District, Rep. Bell is again locked in a tough campaign with former Rep. Bush. Their 2024 contest was bitter, and this year’s race is no different. Bush continues to portray Rep. Bell as aligned with the establishment and too close to Republicans, though the Congressman’s voting record does not support such a claim.

Rep. Bell holds a 3:1 fundraising advantage and is again expected to prevail. The 1st District is now the state’s lone Democratic seat, and it will remain under the party’s control regardless of who wins tonight’s nomination.

In the St. Louis suburban 2nd District, veteran US Rep. Ann Wagner (R‑Ballwin) and Democratic retired Army officer Fred Wellman both appear to be facing only minor opposition for their respective nominations. With a partisan lean of 54.5R – 43.2D (Dave’s Redistricting App), Rep. Wagner has the inside track for November, though Democrats are still expected to invest heavily to support Wellman.

The newly drawn 5th Congressional District was the focal point of Missouri’s 2026 redistricting plan. Its partisan lean shifts from 60.8D – 35.9R to 56.6R – 41.1D, making a Republican victory in November highly likely and placing Rep. Cleaver at serious political risk. This seat is central to GOP hopes of protecting their slim House majority. Six Republicans are competing for the nomination, and three appear viable.

Rep. Graves is retiring after 26 years in Congress and eight years in the Missouri legislature. Tonight’s GOP primary will determine his successor. He has endorsed radio talk show host Chris Stigall, one of five Republicans on the ballot. Stigall’s strongest competitors are Kansas City Councilman Nathan Willett and businessman Nathanael Schultz.

Virginia

Sen. Mark Warner (D) is on the ballot for what he says will be the final time. When announcing his 2026 re‑election bid, Warner stated that he intends to retire when the next term ends in early 2033. He is unopposed for renomination, and none of the six Republicans running appear positioned to mount a strong general‑election challenge.

Virginia’s redistricting referendum, despite passing, was nullified in court after judges ruled that the Democratic legislature and Governor violated state constitutional requirements by rushing the measure to the ballot. Lawmakers plan to return with a new referendum in 2027, to run concurrently with the state House and Senate elections. For 2026, the 2021 map remains in effect.

Rep. Rob Wittman’s (R‑Montrose) 1st District is the second‑weakest pro‑Trump seat in the state, though the President still carried the district with a five-point margin. Rep. Wittman’s likely opponent is Henrico County Commonwealth’s Attorney and 2025 Attorney General candidate Shannon Taylor, who is favored to emerge from her five‑candidate Democratic field. She is expected to run a strong general election campaign, though Rep. Wittman remains favored for 2026. He will, however, be a top target when the 2027 redistricting map is drawn.

In the Virginia Beach-anchored 2nd District, where President Trump narrowly prevailed over Kamala Harris in 2024, Rep. Jen Kiggans (R‑Virginia Beach) is seeking a third term. Her opponent will be former Congresswoman Elaine Luria (D), whom she unseated in 2022. The general election promises to be intense and highly competitive meaning it should be considered a toss‑up all the way to Election Day.

For a time, it appeared former Rep. Bob Good would return to challenge freshman Rep. John McGuire (R‑Manakin‑Sabot) in the mid‑state 5th District. Good ultimately declined, leaving Rep. McGuire unopposed in the Republican primary.

The general election, however, features a formidable Democratic candidate: former Rep. Tom Perriello. He would likely have been favored under the new map, so his decision to continue running after the referendum was struck down suggests he may be positioning himself for 2028, when district lines are expected to be more favorable for a Democratic candidate.

In the Alexandria/Arlington-anchored 8th District, veteran Rep. Don Beyer (D‑Alexandria) faces four Democratic challengers in a moderately competitive primary. Rep. Beyer remains a strong favorite, but the candidates may also be positioning themselves for a potential 2028 open seat. Rep. Beyer will be 78 years old at the time of the next election and will be widely viewed as a retirement possibility.

Washington

Washington is one of four states – Alaska, California, and Louisiana are the others – that use a jungle primary format. As a result, voters will not select partisan nominees tonight. Instead, the top two finishers, regardless of party or vote percentage, will advance to the general election.

The most competitive contests are in southwest District 3, where Democratic Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D‑Skamania County) is attempting to win a third term in a Republican‑leaning district; the open 4th District; and the Spokane‑anchored 5th District.

With resigned Trump appointee Joe Kent not returning for a third attempt in the 3rd CD, Republicans have an opportunity to field a stronger challenger. That candidate is state Senate Minority Leader and retired Navy Captain John Braun (R‑Chehalis), who has led in jungle primary polling. Should Sen. Braun qualify for November, as appears likely, Rep. Perez will face her toughest campaign yet in a seat that is rapidly becoming a must‑win Republican target.

In central Washington District 4, Rep. Dan Newhouse (R‑Sunnyside) is retiring, leaving six Republicans, one Democrat, and four Independents competing for the seat.

Historically, this district has set the precedent of sending two Republicans to the general election, but with only one Democrat on the ballot, retired Air Force officer John Duresky, the chances of his advancing have substantially improved. Republicans are still very likely to hold the seat, potentially with state Sen. Matt Boehnke (R‑Kennewick), though a first‑place finish for Duresky tonight is not out of the question.

In District 5, freshman Rep. Mike Baumgartner (R‑Spokane) is favored for re‑election. The remaining question is whom he will face in November: one of the six Democrats running or one of four Independents. Democrat Carmela Conroy and Independent Nate Powell both have strong prospects of securing the second ballot position needed to challenge the Congressman.