Category Archives: Senate

Virginians Vote; Opposite Polls

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, April 21, 2026

Virginia

Today marks the final voting day for the Virginia redistricting referendum. The voters are deciding whether to change the current Old Dominion congressional map from a 6 Democrat/5 Republican split into a gerrymandered plan designed to elect 10 Democrats and one Republican. The measure will likely pass.

The Republicans surprisingly haven’t put up much of a fight considering a four-seat loss in Virginia would substantially decrease the chances of holding their slim five-seat House majority. Democrats, on the other hand, have dominated the airwaves with their ads supporting a “yes” vote on the referendum (see video at top).

The polling suggests the outcome will be a bit closer than the advertising medium suggests (State Navigate; Aril 10-13; 707 likely Virginia voters; 51-45 percent Yes; Washington Post/George Mason University; March 26-31; 1,101 likely Virginia voters; 52-47 percent Yes). Spending on this referendum is completely lopsided with an approximate expenditure ratio of 11:1 in the Democrats’ favor.

Republicans are hopeful that the state Supreme Court, which is hearing an appeal regarding a lower court judge’s earlier ruling that the entire referendum process is invalid because the legislature violated their own rules in qualifying the special election vote, will uphold the previous decision and declare the referendum invalid. The justices have yet to render a final decision but allowed the referendum vote to continue.

It is difficult to see a panel of judges overturning a vote of the people assuming the “yes” position is victorious. Therefore, Democrats will likely be successful in getting the designed 10 Virginia seats. Doing so will go a long way toward achieving the party goal of flipping the Republicans’ slim House majority.

Opposite Polls

The polling industry has absorbed some attacks regarding its cumulative accuracy rate over the past few years and recent polls from Alabama and Michigan underscore that polling is not an exact science.

Part of the problem is how survey research is used. Polling should be thought of as a guide monitoring candidate momentum swings rather than an instrument that tallies exact ballot test numbers.

Sometimes we see situations where polls conducted of the same race during relatively the same time period can produce very different ballot test results.

A good example of this is found in recent surveys from the Alabama Senate and Michigan Governor’s campaigns, both in Republican primaries.

In the Michigan Governor’s contest, we see two recent polls yielding virtually opposite ballot test results. During the April 11-13 period, Emerson College released their poll projecting businessman Perry Johnson to be at parity with Congressman John James (R-Farmington Hills), in fact leading by a slim 21 to 20 percent margin. This is the first such poll that finds Rep. Jones, also a two-time statewide Republican nominee, trailing in the 2026 gubernatorial primary.

Conversely, the OnMessage polling firm, surveying for the James campaign, sees their candidate in the top position with a big lead. According to OnMessage, James has a wide 41 to 18 percent lead over Johnson. While the Emerson College poll was conducted during the April 11-13 period, the OnMessage survey was in the field during the stretch between April 15-18.

It is hard to fathom, however, that the race could have changed to such a great degree in this short time period. Therefore, one of these polls, and probably the Emerson College survey, has badly missed the mark.

In the Alabama Senate Republican primary, we see a similar situation. During the April 11-13 period, Peak Insights released a survey showing Congressman Barry Moore (R-Enterprise) holding a 34-16-12 percent lead over Alabama attorney general Steve Marshall and anti-human trafficking activist Jared Hudson.

Yet, during almost the identical time frame, April 11-14 in this case, the Tarrance Group also surveyed the Republican electorate and found a much closer result with Moore recording only a slight 28-27-24 percent margin over Marshall and Hudson, respectively.

So again, we see two polls commissioned almost simultaneously and sampling within the same macro campaign universe but arriving at very different ballot test results. These results underscore that polling is not exact and that anomalies do frequently happen.

The Alabama and Michigan examples, though relatively extreme, show us that polling again should be looked at simply as a way to judge candidates’ momentum as opposed to precisely pinpointing where they stand in relation to a projected election outcome.

Michigan Matters

By Jim Ellis — Monday, April 20, 2026

Senate

New polling suggests the Michigan Senate Democratic primary is evolving into a dead heat among three participants all with equivalent voter support and campaign financing.

The open Senate primary, which won’t be decided until Aug. 4, is already white hot. The Data for Progress research organization released the results of their latest survey (for the Zeteo news site; April 2-8; 515 likely Michigan Democratic primary voters; online) and found a literal three-way tie, 23-22-22 percent, among Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham), state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak), and former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed.

Emerson College soon after released their new poll of the Michigan Senate race (April 11-13; 519 likely Michigan Democratic primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) and while detecting a tie for first place (El-Sayed 24 percent; McMorrow 24 percent), Rep. Stevens lags behind with only 13 percent support within their sampling universe. The latter result is obviously a major difference when compared with the former and depicts the volatility in the Michigan Democratic campaign.

Fundraising is sizzling, as well. The latest Federal Election Commission reports are public for the 1st Quarter of 2026 and we see Sen. McMorrow having raised $8.6 million with $3.7 million cash-on-hand. Dr. El-Sayed accumulated a comparable $7.6 million, with $2.5 million remaining to be spent. Rep. Stevens has attracted $6.8 million in campaign receipts, with $3.0 million in her account.

The person with the most to gain from what promises to be a long and hard-fought Democratic primary is consensus Republican candidate Mike Rogers.

The Emerson College survey (452 likely Michigan Republican primary voters) posts the former seven-term Congressman to a whopping 55-2-2 percent lead over dentist Kent Benham and businessman Andrew Kamal so Rogers has little to fear from a primary challenge. This means, among other advantages, that he can hold the vast majority of his financial assets until the general election.

The former Congressman and chairman of the House Intelligence Committee was also the Republican Senate nominee in 2024. Far exceeding his polling numbers, Rogers fell just 19,006 votes short (from a total turnout of over 5.5 million voters) against then-Rep. Elissa Slotkin who was billed as being one of the best Democratic candidates in the country and certainly a prolific fundraiser.

In the 2024 campaign, Rogers was badly outspent as Slotkin had a better than 4:1 expenditure advantage, but vote margin between the two was only three-tenths of one percentage point. Outside spending from Rogers’ allies helped narrow the spending difference, but Slotkin maintained a significant resource edge throughout the campaign.

Being outspent is likely not his problem this year. Rogers has raised $7.6 million through the first quarter of 2026 and holds $4.2 million in his campaign account. He will continue to raise funds through the primary season and will likely have a huge short term cash advantage over his eventual Democratic opponent no matter which one of the three finally secures the party nomination.

The other Rogers advantage is the three Democrats will be forced to move far to the left in order to secure the party nomination in the plurality primary. Therefore, it is possible that Rogers could be in a position on the day after the Aug. 4 primary to be facing an opponent in a short general election cycle who must start from ground zero on fundraising, since it is clear that all three contenders will be forced to spend what they have to secure the party nomination, and hold some positions well beyond the Michigan ideological mainstream.

The Wolverine State is one of the top places that will determine which party controls the Senate in the next Congress. With the political situation in the Democratic primary and Rogers likely beginning the general election in a favorable position opposite his eventual opponent, the Michigan race will be the Republicans’ best opportunity to convert a Democratic seat. Being successful here would virtually clinch the GOP’s goal of continuing as the Senate’s majority party.

With Democrats being in favorable position to convert North Carolina, other state races significantly come in to play: Sen. Susan Collins (R) is in another difficult campaign for re-election in Maine, former three-term Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown is back for another attempt in Ohio, and with potentially strong developing Democratic challengers in Alaska and Texas, a GOP victory in Michigan becomes almost mandatory for Senate Republicans to maintain their majority status.

Cornyn vs. Paxton: Dead Heat

By Jim Ellis — Friday, April 17, 2026

Senate

Two new polls were released in the red-hot Texas US Senate Republican runoff between Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton and the results are identical.

Peek Insights conducted its survey for Texans for a Conservative Majority, a Super PAC that supports Sen. Cornyn (April 6-9; 800 likely Texas voters), and the co/efficient polling firm, in an independent release (April 11-14; 1,143 likely Texas Republican runoff voters; text and live interview), each find Sen. Cornyn leading AG Paxton by a narrow 44-43 percent.

The surveys provide underlying good news for Sen. Cornyn, however. In the primary, polling consistently found Paxton leading the race. In fact, from the final six publicly released pre-primary polls, the Attorney General led the Senator by an average of seven percentage points. In the actual election, Cornyn topped Paxton by one percentage point, meaning the pollsters underestimated the Senator’s Republican primary position by eight full points.

Therefore, if a similar under-counting of Cornyn’s support is again present in the latest data, it is possible that the Senator’s lead is greater than the one percentage point that both pollsters currently detect.

Included in co/efficient’s data release are their crosstabs, which reveal some interesting points.

While the two candidates are virtually even in support among the likely May 26 runoff voters, the co/efficient segmentation allows us to see where each candidate can target and improve.

Possibly the most surprising finding is that Paxton enjoys a 14-point advantage among self-identified Christians. Considering Paxton’s well-publicized extra-marital affairs that led to his wife filing for divorce, one might expect his personal behavior to be a negative factor within this group.

Therefore, expect the Cornyn campaign to improve the Senator’s standing in this sector as the campaign moves toward culmination in late May.

While most segments show the candidates at parity as does the actual ballot test, the two candidates do enjoy advantages within certain groups pertaining to turnout propensity.

Among the respondents who have voted in four of the last four and three of the last four elections, obviously those with the highest vote propensity, Paxton claims a four-point advantage. Sen. Cornyn posts a three-point edge among those with moderate voting propensity — the two of four categories — while Paxton has the advantage among those most likely not to vote.

The other traditionally high-vote propensity group, those over 65 years of age, favor Cornyn by four points. The Senator also has the edge with those aged 18 through 54, but Paxton posts a double-digit advantage within the 55-64 age sector.

The fact that most of the age segments favor Cornyn by an average of four points, yet Paxton dominates the 55-64 group by 19 points fails to make sense. Therefore, it is probable that his very large margin is an anomaly.

The runoff will prove to be a battle between the urban and rural areas. In the primary election, Cornyn won in the state’s largest metro areas, meaning Harris County (Houston), the Dallas-Ft. Worth Metroplex, San Antonio-Austin I-35 corridor, and the populous region along the Mexican border then north to the Corpus Christi area. Paxton was strong throughout the state’s rural areas both in East and West Texas.

While a great deal of money and campaign time will be spent between now and the May 26 election, with heavy emphasis on the early voting process scheduled during the May 18-22 period, the winner will be the candidate whose campaign best energizes its primary election supporters to come back and vote again in the runoff election. Typically, Texas runoff elections turn out about two-thirds of the number who voted in the primary.

May will be an interesting month for vulnerable Republican Senators. Just before the Texas runoff, Louisiana Republican voters will largely determine Sen. Bill Cassidy’s fate in the May 16 partisan primary vote. Some polls show Cassidy trailing both of his Republican challengers — Rep. Julia Letlow (R-Start) and state Treasurer John Fleming. Therefore, the Louisiana and Texas intra-party elections means late May will host a very intriguing political period.

Kentucky Race Taking Shape

By Jim Ellis — Friday, April 10, 2026

Senate

For months, Rep. Andy Barr (R-Lexington) enjoyed a commanding lead in campaign resources over his principal opponent, former Attorney General and 2023 gubernatorial nominee Daniel Cameron, but not a polling advantage. The situation has now changed.

While Rep. Barr undoubtedly still has more money in his campaign account than does Cameron, he now is forging ahead in polling, too. According to the latest Emerson College survey, conducted for Nexstar and WDKY-TV in Lexington (March 29-31; 400 likely Kentucky Republican primary voters; multiple sampling techniques), Rep. Barr now leads Cameron and businessman Nate Morris by a 28-21-15 percent margin.

While Rep. Barr had placed first in two previous surveys after routinely trailing, both spreads were well within the polling margin of error meaning he was virtually tied with Cameron. The new Emerson College survey is the first publicly released poll to find Rep. Barr inconclusively leading the open Blue Grass State US Senate Republican primary.

According to the Federal Election Commission year-end 2025 filing, Rep. Barr had raised over $6.5 million as compared to Cameron’s $1.6 million. A total of $1.44 million of Barr’s funding came as a transfer from his US House campaign committee. As filing closed at the end of December, Barr reported almost $6.5 million cash-on-hand, while Cameron declared only $630,016 remaining in his campaign account, meaning a 10:1 Barr advantage.

Though no candidate has yet to announce how much their campaigns have raised in the 1st Quarter 2026 (the filing deadline is April 15), it is presumed that the Barr financial lead will have grown larger even though he has been spending a portion of his financial advantage to become better known to Republican primary voters beyond his 6th Congressional District constituency.

The wild card in the race is Morris. A wealthy business owner, Morris has been advertising for months. He is running against the Republican establishment, and repeatedly trashes retiring Sen. Mitch McConnell. Others, even in Republican primaries, have similarly attacked McConnell, but none were running in Kentucky.

The Morris angle of going after McConnell and tying his opponents to the former Senate Majority Leader is a questionable one when campaigning before a Republican electorate that has routinely strongly supported the seven-term incumbent since he first ran for the Senate in 1984.

Morris has already put $5 million of his own money into his statewide campaign, and Elon Musk is reportedly donating $10 million to a Super PAC supporting Morris’ effort. Therefore, he is a serious third candidate but one who still lags considerably behind the two front runners.

While we are still weeks away from the May 19 primary election, the seeds are set for a Barr victory in the plurality Republican primary, meaning beginning the general election cycle with a clear advantage.

Emerson also tested the Democratic side as part of their March 29-31 statewide poll, surveying 549 likely Democratic primary voters. Here we see former Louisville state Rep. Charles Booker topping former US Senate and ex-congressional nominee Amy McGrath, a retired Marine Corps officer, by a 2:1 clip, translating into a 36-18 percent advantage.

McGrath, a proven strong fundraiser, opposed both Sen. McConnell and Rep. Barr in previous elections and fared poorly despite being at parity with her stronger Republican opponents in campaign resources. Regardless of who comes through the Democratic primary, the general election will prove a major obstacle for the individual irrespective of funding, the political climate’s status at the time of the general election, and trends that might be developing in other states.

At this point, it appears Rep. Barr is now in the best position to win the open GOP Senate nomination and carry that momentum through toward winning the general election.

Cassidy Crushed in New Poll

By Jim Ellis — Monday, April 6, 2026

Senate

Louisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy (R)

A new American Pulse Research & Polling survey finds Louisiana GOP Sen. Bill Cassidy trending seriously downward in his fight for renomination.

According to the American Pulse data, Sen. Cassidy would be in danger of not even advancing to a runoff against Rep. Julia Letlow (R-Start) and State Treasurer and former Rep. John Fleming. In hypothetical runoff pairings, should Sen. Cassidy rebound, he would individually trail both Letlow and Fleming.

The American Pulse poll (March 20-24; 455 likely Louisiana Republican primary voters) sees Rep. Letlow topping Fleming and Sen. Cassidy, 31-25-21 percent, respectively. In a potential runoff, Rep. Letlow would lead Fleming, 37-34 percent. With 29 percent of the respondents unsure about this race, such a contest would be rated as too close to call.

Paired with incumbent Cassidy, Rep. Letlow would defeat him by a whopping 30 points according to this respondent sample, 54-24 percent. Fleming fares almost as well against the Senator. In a Fleming-Cassidy runoff, the challenger would lead the incumbent, 49-29 percent.

With a sample size of only 455 individuals for a statewide survey, the error factor would be high because of the small universe. These results, however, are so lopsided that even a wide error margin would still send Cassidy packing particularly because he fares so poorly in a runoff against either opponent.

Sen. Cassidy is facing serious obstacles. Obviously, these polling numbers reveal that the Senator is not popular within the Louisiana conservative vote base. Secondly, his vote to impeach President Trump associated with the January 6th conflict at the Capitol obviously put him at odds with the chief executive, though it is likely that the Senator believed doing so would not cause him future political problems because he obviously believed that Trump would never return to the White House.

As a result, President Trump has already endorsed Rep. Letlow, doing so even before she became an official Senate candidate.

Perhaps Sen. Cassidy’s most serious problem, however, is Louisiana’s new nomination structure for federal offices. Since the 1970s, Louisiana has featured a jungle qualification format for all offices. All candidates are placed on the same ballot in an election concurrent with the regular general election. If a candidate records majority support in the first vote, the individual is elected. If not, the top two finishers regardless of political party affiliation advanced to a post-general election runoff.

Under the new Louisiana primary system effective with the 2026 election, registered party members may only vote in their own party primary. If a person is registered as a “No Party” voter, the individual may choose a primary ballot at the polling place. Once selected, the “No Party” voter can then only participate in an associated runoff of the party in which he or she chose for the regular primary election.

In the jungle system, and particularly because the Democrats are currently very weak in Louisiana, Sen. Cassidy was able to attract a segment of their votes. This made him stronger in seeking re-election. In 2026, Democrats will not be allowed to crossover into the Republican primary, just as Republicans will not be allowed to vote in any 2026 Democratic primary.

Therefore, the new partisan primary system gives the Cassidy challengers a boost because endorsements, such as the one from President Trump, will carry more weight within the conservative Republican vote base without any adverse boomerang effect coming from crossover Democrats.

Added together, these obstacles spell trouble for Sen. Cassidy’s re-election chances as the current polls reflect.

The small sample American Pulse survey may not be completely indicative of where the entire Louisiana Republican electorate stands, but the Senator has fared poorly in other statewide polls, as well.

Looking at the last six publicly released Republican primary studies since Feb. 24, Sen. Cassidy has averaged only 26.7 percent support in the surveys testing a three-way contest among the Senator, Rep. Letlow, and Fleming.

As we head toward a May 16 Louisiana Republican primary election and a potential June 27 GOP runoff, Sen. Cassidy today looks to be the Senate incumbent most likely to fail to qualify for the general election.

Senate: Open Race Recap

By Jim Ellis — Friday, March 27

Senate

Below is a status update of the 11 open US Senate races that will go a long way toward determining which party controls the chamber in the next Congress:

Alabama: Rep. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise), after receiving the Trump endorsement and now Majority Leader John Thune’s backing, has pulled ahead of state Attorney General Steve Marshall (R) in polling and fundraising. Marshall is Rep. Moore’s principal Republican opponent. Still, Moore winning the party nomination outright in a field of six candidates is a tall order.

The Alabama primary is May 19. If no candidate receives majority support, the top two finishers advance to a June 16 runoff election. The eventual Republican nominee wins the seat in November.

Illinois: With her victory in the March 17 open Democratic primary, Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton has punched her ticket to the Senate. She will succeed retiring Sen. Dick Durbin (D) in the next Congress with an easy general election victory.

Iowa: Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/Cedar Rapids) is the consensus Republican nominee and will open the general election as the favorite to carry the state in November. The Democrats feature a tightly contested primary between state Sen. Zach Wahls (D-Des Moines) and state Rep. Josh Turek (D-Council Bluffs). The VoteVets group just announced they will spend $825,000 in an independent expenditure for Turek. The Iowa primary is June 2.

Kentucky: Rep. Andy Barr (R-Lexington) and former Attorney General and 2023 Republican gubernatorial nominee Daniel Cameron are locked in a very tight race with businessman Nate Morris a distant third. Rep. Barr, however, had a 10:1 cash-on-hand advantage over Cameron at the end of 2025. Democrats have a crowded primary with former state Representative and ex-US Senate candidate Charles Booker taking an early lead.

The Kentucky plurality primary is May 19. The eventual Republican nominee will be heavily favored in the general election.

Michigan: An intense Democratic primary is underway among Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham), state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak), and former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed. Polling and fundraising are relatively even, though Rep. Stevens has the resource edge.

This primary won’t be decided until Aug. 4, which is a boon to GOP candidate Mike Rogers, the former Congressman who came within three-tenths of a percentage point of winning the 2024 Senate race. This contest will be in toss-up mode all the way to election day.

Minnesota: While Democrats feature a primary battle between Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake), Republicans have a consensus candidate in former national sports broadcaster Michele Tafoya. This race has the underpinnings of evolving into a surprisingly competitive general election even though Minnesota is a reliable Democratic state.

A tough and late Democratic primary (Aug. 11), unrest within the state, and Republicans united behind a strong candidate makes this contest more interesting than one would have expected after Sen. Tina Smith (D) announced her retirement.

Montana: The surprise withdrawal of Sen. Steve Daines (R) just before the candidate filing deadline expired and basically handing the party nomination to his chosen successor, former US Attorney Kurt Alme, will likely work even though the move does not sit well with most Montanans. At this point, Alme must be rated as the favorite to win the seat. Democrats have a five-way primary and former state Rep. Reilly Neill is considered the favorite to win the party nomination.

The most formidable non-Republican contender is likely former University of Montana President Seth Bodnar who is running as an Independent. The Montana primary is June 2, so it remains to be seen how a three-way general election race will evolve once both major parties have nominees in place.

New Hampshire: Democrats have a consensus candidate to replace retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) in the person of Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester). A new St. Anselm’s College Poll finds the Congressman leading former Sen. John E. Sununu (R) by only a 46-43 percent margin in the Senate general election ballot test.

Sununu, who served in the Senate from 2003-2009, is the clear favorite in the Republican primary opposite former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown, who challenged Sen. Shaheen in 2014.

North Carolina: Nominees are already set in the Tar Heel Senate race, as both former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) and ex-Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley each won their respective primaries outright in the March 3 primary election.

Cooper, who has won six statewide North Carolina races (two as Governor and four for Attorney General), may be in the best position of any Democratic Senate candidate to flip a Republican seat. Expect this race to end in a close finish as do most North Carolina political campaigns.

Oklahoma: With no serious opposition mounting in the Republican primary against Rep. Kevin Hern (R-Tulsa), who is quickly becoming a consensus GOP candidate in one of the strongest Republican states, the party does not have to worry about keeping Oklahoma in the red column.

Former Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R) was just confirmed as US Homeland Security Secretary. Gov. Kevin Stitt (R) appointed energy executive Alan Armstrong (R) to replace Sen. Mullin until the regular election cycle is complete. Because the Mullin seat is in-cycle, a special and regular election for the full six-year term will be held concurrently.

Wyoming: Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R) deciding not to seek a second six-year term has opened the door for at-large Rep. Harriet Hageman (R-Cheyenne) to become her successor. Expect Rep. Hageman to easily win both the Republican primary and the general election with the state’s other major political figures either running for the open Governor’s position or Hageman’s open congressional seat.

Flawed Texas Polling

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, March 26, 2026

Senate

We are about to see a new wave of Texas Senate polling, but will the accuracy rate be better than what was produced for the March 3 primary election?

A new Change Research survey conducted for the Agave Social Welfare Fund (March 17-19; 807 registered Texas voters; online) finds Attorney General Ken Paxton leading Sen. John Cornyn 42-39 percent in the upcoming May 26 Republican runoff election, but if polling accuracy from the primary is an indicator, this result means little.

As you may remember, Sen. Cornyn placed first in the GOP Senate primary with a 42-41-13 percent spread over Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston). According to the last six polls conducted during the final 11 days before the primary, the period covering Feb. 19 through March 2, Paxton was leading the race by seven points according to the mean average figure from the concluding six polls.

The six research firms conducting the surveys were: Peek Insights (Feb. 19-23; 800 likely Texas Republican primary voters), Blueprint Polling (Feb. 23-24; 529 likely Texas Republican primary voters), Victory Phones (Feb. 24-25; 600 likely Texas Republican primary voters), Quantus Insights (Feb. 26-27; 939 likely Texas Republican primary voters), Emerson College (Feb. 26-27; 547 likely Texas Republican primary voters), and YouGov (Feb. 26-March 2; 1,659 likely Texas Republican primary voters).

The one closest from this group conducted their study furthest from the election, Peek Insights, over the Feb. 19-23 period. Peek found a 36-36-14 percent result, which is very close to the actual 42-41-13 percent.

Blueprint Polling (Feb. 23-24) was furthest away. The firm found Paxton holding a twelve point, 42-30 percent, advantage. In actuality, the Blueprint result was close regarding Paxton’s preference figure, but well away from Cornyn’s support level and margin.

Looking at the aggregate result from the six aforementioned pollsters, the Paxton average lead of seven points means the group cumulatively missed the final tally by eight points when adding Sen. Cornyn’s actual one-point edge.

Therefore, the new Change Research 42-39 percent ballot test conclusion should be viewed with a wary eye since the cumulative primary data, by and large, badly missed the mark.

On the Democratic side in a Senate nomination race where state Rep. James Talarico (D-Austin) defeated US Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Dallas) outright by a 52-46 percent margin, four pollsters conducted surveys prior to the March 3 primary. The results were mixed.

The four research firms conducting surveys during the Feb. 23 – March 2 period were Blueprint Polling (Feb. 23-24; 472 likely Texas Democratic primary voters), Public Policy Polling (Feb. 25; 599 likely Texas Democratic primary voters), Emerson College (Feb. 26-27; 850 likely Texas Democratic primary voters), and YouGov (Feb.26-March 2; 2,408 likely Texas Democratic primary voters).

Emerson College’s 52-47 percent ballot test result with Talarico leading was virtually right on target. Public Policy Polling was also close with their 48-42 percent split, a six-point spread that proved correct.

The two missed surveys were from Blueprint Polling (52-40 percent; correctly projecting the Talarico percentage but badly underestimating Crockett’s support), and YouGov (53-40 percent, basically the same ballot test result as Blueprint). YouGov, as well, correctly determined the Talarico support level but severely undercounted the Crockett support base.

Because Talarico won the Democratic primary without a runoff means we won’t see any significant general election polling until the electorate breaks closer to the November vote. Some polls will be released, of course, but they are likely to show what early cycle Texas studies commonly project: a tight race. Until October, expect close polling but allow for a wide accuracy curve.

Markwayne Mullin Confirmed;
Armstrong Now Oklahoma Senator

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, March 25, 2026

Senate

Oklahoma’s Markwayne Mullin yesterday won Senate confirmation to his new position as Secretary of Homeland Security. A day before, Mullin resigned from the Senate thus creating a new open seat for the 2026 election cycle.

Energy businessman and now Oklahoma Sen. Alan Armstrong (R)

Mullin was first elected to the House in 2012 and was re-elected four times. He won a special election to the Senate in 2022 replacing then-Sen. Jim Inhofe (R) who resigned the seat for family reasons after serving 28 years. Immediately upon the Mullin confirmation, Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt (R) appointed energy businessman Alan Armstrong (R) to serve the balance of the current term.

Under Oklahoma procedure, when a Senate vacancy occurs the Governor appoints a replacement. The person agreeing to accept the appointment then signs an oath saying he or she will not seek election to the succeeding term. Therefore, Sen. Armstrong will only serve until just after the special election, which is scheduled concurrently with the regular election cycle.

Because the Mullin seat is in-cycle this year, the winner of the regular term — likely the person who wins the concurrent special election — will earn a full six-year term. The odds-on favorite to win both elections is Rep. Kevin Hern (R-Tulsa) who announced for the seat as soon as then-Sen. Mullin was designated as the new Homeland Security Secretary.

The Mullin resignation means there will be 11 open US Senate races in this cycle, seven from the Republican side as compared to four open Democratic seats.

Alan Armstrong was born and raised in the Bartlesville area of northern Oklahoma. He graduated from the University of Oklahoma and then went to work for the Williams energy company where he spent his professional career, rising to the company’s top position serving from 2011 to 2025. After retiring, he became a member of the Williams company Board of Directors from which he resigned to accept the short-term Senate appointment.

Oklahoma has a unique procedure for the appointment process that disqualifies the appointee from running for the seat to which they are chosen. While unconstitutional to pass a law that prohibits a citizen from seeking political office, the state lawmakers got around the requirement by having the appointment process include the signing of the oath pledging not to run.

If an individual decided to break the oath, it would be difficult for the state to pursue action against the person because of the individual’s constitutional right to participate in the political process. There is no indication in this case that Sen. Armstrong will attempt to break his oath.

Rep. Hern is cementing his case to become a consensus Senate candidate. After his formal announcement of candidacy, both Gov. Stitt, who had not expressed clear interest in running for the Senate, and Rep. Stephanie Bice (R-Oklahoma City) who confirmed she was contemplating entering the race, both announced they would not run.

In the Republican primary, the announced candidates challenging Rep. Hern are real estate broker Sean Buckner, IT professional Nick Hankins, nurse Ron Meinhardt, and non-profit CEO Wayne Washington.

For the Democrats, progressive activist Evan Beck, private investigator Troy Green, janitor Rebekah LaVann, retired attorney Jim Priest, and nurse N’Kiyla Thomas have declared their candidacies.

The Oklahoma candidate filing deadline is April 3, so time remains for a stronger contender in both parties to come forward. With no former or current elected official in the overall field, it appears that Rep. Hern is a lock to become the consensus Republican nominee and a prohibitive favorite for the general election.

Idaho in Play?

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, March 24, 2026

Senate

A new poll suggests that the Idaho Senate race may become the 2026 version of what we saw unfold in Nebraska two years ago.

In the 2024 Cornhusker State US Senate election, Independent Dan Osborn was able to garner the Nebraska Democratic Party’s support, and with strong fundraising catapulted himself into a competitive battle with Sen. Deb Fischer (R). In the end, Sen. Fischer prevailed with a six-point victory margin, but not without enduring a period where several consecutive public polls staked Osborn to a lead.

Left: Three-term Idaho incumbent Sen. Jim Risch (R). Right: Challenger Todd Achilles, a former Democratic state Representative

A new Public Policy Polling survey (March 16-17; 639 likely 2026 Idaho general election voters; live interview & text) released on Friday found Idaho Independent candidate Todd Achilles, a former Democratic state Representative, posting a three-point ballot test edge (41-38 percent) over three-term incumbent Sen. Jim Risch (R). Whether this study is a trend setter or an anomaly remains to be seen, but the data deserves examination.

Apparently, the incumbent’s age will be an issue. Risch will be 83 at the time of the election, and his long career in elective politics appears to be an Achilles talking point as the campaign begins in earnest.

Risch was elected to the US Senate in 2008 after serving for seven months as Governor before returning to his position as Lieutenant Governor. Prior to winning statewide office, Risch served 21 non-consecutive years in the Idaho Senate. Except for a six-year stint when he was out of elective politics, Sen. Risch has been in public office continually since the end of 1974.

In an interview with the Idaho News, a left-leaning website covering Boundary County located at the northernmost point of the Idaho Panhandle that borders Canada, Achilles said, “voters want a Senator who will stand up to monopolies, defend free markets, protect small businesses and producers, safeguard families online, and remain sharp and effective for the full six-year term.”

The Achilles Senate effort should be taken seriously. According to his claims, the Independent candidate has “nearly 1,000 volunteers and attended more than 100 events that cover all 44 Idaho counties.” He also has raised $350,000 for his statewide effort, but that amount compares poorly to Sen. Risch’s reported $3.87 million year end cash-on-hand figure.

On the Senator’s side is his campaign history. Counting his two bids for Lieutenant Governor and three US Senate contests, Risch has won every statewide race in which he has participated. In those five campaigns beginning in 2002, he has averaged an even 60.0 percent of the vote and has a strong base of support within the Republican Party.

Candidate filing closed March 6, and Sen. Risch drew only three minor Republican primary opponents: data engineer Joe Evans, construction contractor Danny LaVe, and paper mill operations supervisor Josh Roy.

What may hurt Achilles’ effort in the general election is the Democrats having their own nominee. Realtor David Roth is unopposed for the Democratic US Senate nomination and will advance into the general election, though he will have little in the way of resources with which to compete.

While Achilles, who resigned from the state House to devote full time to his Independent bid for the Senate, is clearly making a serious effort to construct a competitive campaign, he will need the Democratic leadership to force their eventual nominee out of the race so the party could endorse, or at least not impede, his stronger Independent effort opposite Sen. Risch.

Such a Democratic move, however, might prove to be a two-edged sword. While the Democrats not having their own nominee would help Achilles evolve the race into a two-way affair, the party leaders officially endorsing the Independent would hurt his ability to carve the centrist ideological path that he desires, especially since he served as a Democrat in the state House as recently as July.

While the PPP poll suggests that Sen. Risch may not be as strong as one would have believed when first glancing at the 2026 national Senate political card, Achilles still faces a difficult task of putting this race into play even though he is constructing a credible early effort.

Accounting for the most obvious positive and negative factors, Sen. Risch must still be regarded as the determinative favorite for re-election.

Kentucky Senate: A GOP Toss-Up

By Jim Ellis — Friday, March 20, 2026

Senate

A newly released Public Opinion Strategies survey confirms that Kentucky Rep. Andy Barr (R-Lexington) and former Attorney General and 2023 gubernatorial nominee Daniel Cameron are evolving into a toss-up Republican primary battle, which is the first step toward succeeding retiring Sen. Mitch McConnell (R).

Businessman Nate Morris is the third significant GOP Senatorial candidate, though nine additional Republicans will be on the ballot. Morris has injected more than $5 million of his own money into his Senate campaign and is positioned to benefit from a $10 million Super PAC that Elon Musk supported. Still, he significantly trails Cameron and Barr.

The POS survey finds the former Attorney General retaking the lead at 31-29 percent over Rep. Barr, meaning a virtual tie, while Morris, who has advertised heavily, trails with a 13 percent support figure.

Two polls from last month found Rep. Barr, who has a huge resource advantage over Cameron, claiming the first position.

A Feb. 4 online Quantus Insights study of 870 likely Republican primary voters saw a virtual tie at the top – Barr leading 28-27 percent – with Morris pulling 17 percent. The Emerson College Kentucky Senate poll (Jan. 31-Feb. 2; 523 likely Kentucky Republican primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) likewise found a similar result, 24-21-14 percent, with Barr leading Cameron and Morris in said order.

Therefore, at this point, two months before the May 19 primary election, we see an evolving close finish with Barr having a slight edge.

One place where the Congressman has a clear advantage relates to fundraising and campaign resources. New reports will be made public in a month, but the year-end 2025 totals found Mr. Barr holding at that time $6.5 million in his campaign account versus just $630,000+ for Mr. Cameron.

Mr. Morris has also raised or self-funded more than $6 million, but he had spent three-quarters of his resources before the end of 2025. He reported $1.4 million in the bank at that time, so he too is considerably behind Rep. Barr in terms of reserved campaign dollars. Morris could loan further money to the race, but the question remains as to how far he will tap his personal assets to compete in this Senate campaign.

Since only 25 percent of the Morris campaign assets come from others, it is likely that he will have to further rely upon himself to promote his campaign effort. He will be receiving major support from the substantial unconnected Super PAC that Musk supports, but obviously the Morris campaign cannot control or influence the entity’s messaging strategy.

The Democrats are clearly in the underdog position in this race, and have been since Gov. Andy Beshear, who could have put the open Senate race in play, opted to prepare a run for President.

Four of the seven filed Democratic candidates are competitive for the nomination. Former US Senate and congressional nominee Amy McGrath, a retired Marine Corps officer, is a strong fundraiser, but she fared poorly in a 2018 congressional campaign against Rep. Barr and in a challenge opposite Sen. McConnell two years later.

State House Minority Leader Pamela Stevenson (D-Louisville), former state Representative and 2020 and 2022 US Senate candidate Charles Booker, and thoroughbred horse trainer Dale Romans also have a chance to claim the party nomination.

Post-primary, the eventual Republican nominee will be rated as the favorite to win the general election and succeed Sen. McConnell, the former Majority Leader, who will leave the body next year after serving what will have been 42 years in office.