Category Archives: Senate

Incumbent Defeats Mount
As 2026 Primaries Unfold

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, August 13, 2026

Primaries

A total of 43 states have now conducted their primary elections, and we have already seen 12 incumbents – 10 in the House and two in the Senate; seven Democrats and five Republicans – fail to win renomination. This is an unusually high number, particularly in the House, but whether it signals a coming major change general election is difficult to determine at this stage. Even so, the pattern offers several notable clues.

One of the most striking findings is the large average defeat margin (16 percentage points) among the 12 incumbents. Such lopsided results suggest an electorate that is, at minimum, frustrated with the current political status quo.

The fact that incumbents in both parties have lost – and that almost all did so by substantial margins – indicates that voters on opposite ideological ends are expressing dissatisfaction, albeit for different reasons. Democratic electorates are clearly gravitating toward more ideologically extreme candidates, while Republican voters appear discontent with what they perceive as slow pace of achievement from the officeholders they have routinely elected.

In the House, seven Democrats and three Republicans have been denied another term. Of the seven Democratic defeats, only Reps. Adriano Espaillat (D‑NY) and Shri Thanedar (D‑MI) lost by margins within four percentage points.

Among the remaining 10 House defeats, the average margin of victory exceeded 17 percentage points. Two races set the high‑water mark: Rep. Al Green (D‑TX) losing to fellow Rep. Christian Menefee (D‑TX) by 38.6 points, and Rep. Dan Goldman (D‑NY) falling to former New York City Comptroller Brad Lander by 31.8 points.

Three defeats occurred within the past two weeks – Reps. Thanedar, Andy Ogles (R‑TN), and John Larson (D‑CT) – demonstrating that the trend is not confined to any single moment in the cycle. Incumbents have now fallen in March, May, June, and August, pointing to a broader and more persistent wave of discontent.

Of the 12 defeats, eight can reasonably be attributed to ideological or partisan motivations. On the Democratic side, incumbents who lost to candidates publicly identifying as Democratic Socialists – Reps. Espaillat, Goldman, and Diana DeGette (D‑CO) – were rejected because they were not far enough to the political left. Though Rep. Thanedar did not lose to a self‑identified Democratic Socialist, state Rep. Donovan McKinney (D‑Detroit) campaigned aggressively on the argument that the incumbent was not sufficiently liberal.

On the Republican side, the dynamic was the reverse: incumbents were deemed as not suitably conservative. This was most evident in Sen. John Cornyn’s (R‑TX) loss to Attorney General Ken Paxton, and retired Navy SEAL Ed Gallrein defeating Rep. Thomas Massie (R‑KY), aided by former President Trump’s very public criticism of Massie’s votes against the MAGA agenda.

Sen. Bill Cassidy (R‑LA) faced similar pressure to that of Rep. Massie, failing even to qualify for the runoff after finishing 20 points behind first‑place finisher Rep. Julia Letlow (R‑Start), who received President Trump’s endorsement. The President became actively involved in the race because he wanted to see Sen. Cassidy, who voted for impeachment in 2021, fail to win renomination.

Though ideology may not have been the principal factor in Rep. Dan Crenshaw’s (R‑TX) 15‑point defeat, challenger Steve Toth (R‑The Woodlands) clearly ran to Crenshaw’s right.

Two incumbents – Reps. Green and Larson – lost primarily due to age‑related concerns, as younger challengers capitalized on generational contrasts. About a dozen elderly Democratic incumbents were challenged by younger opponents who used the generation gap as a principal reason for voters to turn away from the incumbent and a pair of the upstarts were successful.

Two others fell for distinct reasons. Rep. Julie Johnson (D‑TX) lost to former Rep. Colin Allred largely because Allred was better known to Democratic voters and Johnson was forced into unfamiliar territory under the new Texas map. Rep. Ogles lost to former Agriculture Commissioner Charlie Hatcher (R) due to a campaign‑finance scandal and seeing substantially new territory, including the city of Memphis, added to his district under the new Tennessee redistricting map.

While each defeat has its own unique circumstances, the sheer volume and the average double-digit margin across the 12 races are already reverberating through general election campaigns.

It remains to be seen whether any additional incumbents will fall in the remaining seven primaries, and how many more may lose in November. Expect campaigns to begin making strategic adjustments as we move into political prime time after Labor Day.

Graham to Runoff; Flanagan Wins; Rep. Larson Loses in Connecticut

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, August 12, 2026

Connecticut delivered the biggest surprise of another active primary night. Rep. John Larson (D‑Hartford), seeking a 15th term, lost his renomination bid by 20 percentage points to former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin. Bronin will have little trouble holding the seat in November. Rep. Larson becomes the 10th US House incumbent to lose renomination this year and the seventh Democrat.

In Wisconsin, state Rep. Francesca Hong (D‑Madison) entered the gubernatorial primary as an average 20‑point favorite, but in a surprisingly close finish she appears to have narrowly lost to Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, who had previously suspended his campaign.

For the second consecutive week, the polling community badly missed a race involving a Democratic Socialist candidate. In both the Wisconsin Governor and Michigan Senate contests, multiple pollsters projected major victories for Democratic Socialist contenders, and in each case the predictions proved wrong. Hong fell short, and Michigan’s Abdul El‑Sayed edged his principal Democratic opponent by just one percentage point despite averaging a 15‑point lead.

In South Carolina’s high‑profile Senate primary, appointed Sen. Darline Graham and Rep. Ralph Norman (R‑Rock Hill) advanced to an Aug. 25 Republican runoff election. Graham recorded only 33 percent of the vote, meaning 67 percent of the roughly 335,000 GOP primary voters chose another candidate.

Rep. Norman, who lost the Governor’s race in June, finished second with 25 percent. Rep. Russell Fry (R‑Murrell’s Inlet/Myrtle Beach) placed third at 20 percent but remains on the November ballot as the Republican nominee in his 7th Congressional District.

Minnesota also featured a major campaign contest. Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, aligned with the Democratic Socialists, defeated Rep. Angie Craig (D‑Prior Lake) by a 59-40 percent margin. Flanagan advances to face former national sports reporter Michele Tafoya, who easily won the Republican primary. Some believe this race is a Republican sleeper for November.

In other races …

Alabama

Three significant post‑redistricting primaries were held yesterday. Former Rep. Jerry Carl, who lost his 2024 Republican primary after being redistricted into an incumbent pairing with Rep. Barry Moore (R‑Enterprise), appears poised to return to Congress. Under the 2026 map, which restores the Mobile metropolitan area as the 1st District’s major population anchor, Carl scored a commanding 75 percent victory in the Republican primary.

In the new 2nd District, state Rep. Rhett Marques (R‑Enterprise) won a convincing Republican primary as expected. He advances to face Rep. Shomari Figures (D‑Mobile) in a southeastern Alabama district that now favors the GOP. The AL‑2 contest is a major Republican conversion target on the national House map.

In the Birmingham area, Rep. Gary Palmer (R‑Hoover/Shelby County) was easily renominated and is well positioned for another term in November. In the neighboring 7th District, educator Ammie Akin captured the Republican nomination but will be a heavy underdog against Rep. Terri Sewell (D‑Birmingham) in the state’s lone Democratic seat.

Connecticut

In the Constitution State’s other notable race, Gov. Ned Lamont (D) easily secured renomination for a third term, defeating state Rep. Josh Elliott (D‑Guilford) with 68 percent of the vote. Gov. Lamont will be a prohibitive favorite in the fall campaign against state Sen. Ryan Fazio (D‑Greenwich).

Minnesota

In addition to Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and former national sportscaster Michele Tafoya winning the Democratic and Republican Senate nominations, Sen. Amy Klobuchar scored a dominant 90 percent victory in the open Democratic gubernatorial primary. She will face state House Speaker Lisa DeMuth (R‑Cold Spring), who defeated My Pillow founder Mike Lindell in the GOP primary. Sen. Klobuchar enters the general election as the clear favorite to succeed outgoing Gov. Tim Walz (D).

In the open 2nd Congressional District, state Sen. Matt Little (D‑Lakeville) easily won the Democratic primary. State Sen. Eric Pratt (R‑Prior Lake), unopposed for the Republican nomination, will meet Little in what is expected to be a competitive race to replace Rep. Angie Craig.

Vermont

Economist Amanda Janoo slipped past University of Vermont Medical Center Board chair Aly Richards to win the Democratic gubernatorial nomination. Janoo will now challenge Gov. Phil Scott who was unopposed for a sixth term on the Republican side. Despite Vermont’s strong Democratic voting history, Gov. Scott is once again favored for re-election.

Wisconsin

In addition to Crowley winning the right to challenge Rep. Tom Tiffany (R-Minocqua) in the open gubernatorial general election, several congressional primaries were decided.

In the politically marginal 3rd District, Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R‑Prairie du Chien) will again face businesswoman Rebecca Cooke (D) in a rematch of their 51-49 percent contest from 2024. This will be one of the cycle’s top national House campaigns.

In a crowded 1st District Democratic primary, nurse Mitchell Berman prevailed with 40 percent of the vote. Berman advances to the general election as a decided underdog to four‑term Rep. Bryan Steil (R‑Janesville).

In the open 7th District, podcast producer Michael Alfonso – son‑in‑law of US Transportation Secretary and former 7th District Congressman Sean Duffy, and backed by President Trump – won the Republican primary against four opponents. He now becomes a heavy favorite to defeat new Democratic nominee Fred Clark, a former state Representative.

El-Sayed’s Close Primary Win;
Results Wrap-Up From Four States

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, August 5, 2026

The marquee race of the Aug. 4 primary night – the Michigan Senate Democratic primary race – came down to a small number of votes, which defied the polling projections. Former Wayne County Health/Human/Veterans Department director Abdul El-Sayed was projected late last night as a close winner over Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham). The night began with El-Sayed initially tallying up a large lead, but Stevens consistently chipped away until the final El-Sayed margin should be approximately 20,000 votes from more than 1.4 million Democratic primary votes cast.

Nine different July pollsters all forecast a large El-Sayed lead, one where he was averaging just under a 15-percentage point advantage, but the final margin proved razor thin. Abdul El-Sayed now faces former seven-term Congressman and 2024 US Senate nominee Mike Rogers, who was unopposed in the Republican primary. The Michigan general election is likely to be the key to which party will hold the Senate majority in the new Congress.

Kansas

The open Governor’s race for both parties was the premier draw in last night’s Kansas primary. State Senate President Ty Masterson (R-Andover) was an easy winner for the Republicans, who are aiming to convert the Governor’s office back to their party after what will be eight years of Democratic control under term-limited state chief executive Laura Kelly.

On the Democratic side in a battle between two state Senators, Cindy Holscher (D-Overland Park) defeated Gov. Kelly’s endorsed candidate, Ethan Corson (D-Prairie Village). The general election is expected to be competitive. Republican primary turnout exceeded the Democratic numbers, which gives Sen. Masterson a boost as the candidates turn toward November.

Michigan

Beyond the close Senate race, voters chose nominees in the Governor’s campaign. As predicted, Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson recorded a landslide victory in the Democratic primary. For the Republicans, Rep. John James (R-Farmington Hills), who has twice come close in statewide campaigns, won the party nomination with just over 50 percent of the vote against three Republican candidates, though one of them ended his active campaign last week.

Looking at the state’s voting history and the strong Democratic primary turnout as compared to the Republican number, Benson will begin the general election race as the favorite.

In the House races, we first look toward the western 4th District. Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Holland) will attract more than 80 percent of the final Republican primary vote. His opponent, as expected for the competitive general election, is state Sen. Sean McCann (D-Kalamazoo), an easy Democratic primary winner.

In the 7th District, which is likely to be the most competitive race in the general election, freshman Rep. Tom Barrett (R-Charlotte/Lansing) was unopposed for renomination. His general election opponent will be political activist William Lawrence who scored a 43 percent Democratic primary victory over former US Ambassador Bridget Brink and retired Navy SEAL Matt Maasdam.

In the open 10th District that Rep. James vacated to run for Governor, National Guard officer and Iraq War veteran Michael Bouchard Jr., son of the long-time Oakland County Sheriff and ex-statewide candidate, recorded a 73 percent victory over three Republican opponents. For the Democrats, in what promises to be a very tight general election, former Macomb County Prosecutor nominee Christina Hines defeated two Democratic opponents with 46 percent of the vote.

Turning to Rep. Stevens’ open 11th District, state Senate President Pro Tempore Jeremy Moss captured 41 percent of the vote against three Democratic opponents to clinch the party nomination. He now becomes the prohibitive favorite to win the general election in a safely Democratic seat.

The 13th District Democratic primary challenge to Rep. Shri Thanedar (D-Detroit) could end in deposing the incumbent. With just under half the vote counted, state Rep. Donovan McKinney (D-Detroit) leads Rep. Thanedar, 51-49 percent, in a race that is still too close to call.

Missouri

With no Senate or Governor’s race on the ballot, the US House races led the ballot.

In the 1st District, former Congresswoman Cori Bush launched a political comeback attempt against the man who defeated her in the 2024 Democratic primary, current Congressman Wesley Bell (D-St. Louis).

Last night, Rep. Bell posted a strong 59-37 percent victory over the former Congresswoman and “Squad” member. Winning the Democratic primary in this St. Louis district is tantamount to claiming the general election, so Rep. Bell is virtually guaranteed re-election in November.

In the redistricted 5th CD, state Sen. Rick Brattin (R-Kansas City) was the clear Republican primary winner. He will now face Rep. Emanuel Cleaver (D-Kansas City) in a district that does not resemble the downtown Kansas City seat that the Congressman has represented since the beginning of 2005. Now the 5th District is a Republican seat that stretches into the state’s rural areas, and Rep. Cleaver must be considered an underdog for the general election.

The MO-5 race now becomes a must-win Republican campaign if the GOP is to have a chance at holding their slim national majority.

The open 6th District was decided last night in the Republican primary. There, radio talk show host Chris Stigall, who carried retiring 13-term Congressman Sam Graves’ (R-Tarkio) endorsement, won last night’s Republican primary with 44 percent of the vote over four Republican opponents. Stigall will cruise to victory in the general election from this safe Republican northwestern Missouri congressional seat.

Virginia

In the US Senate race, Republicans chose retired Army Major General Bert Mizusawa to oppose Sen. Mark Warner (D) who is on the ballot for a fourth term. The Senator had no Democratic opposition. Sen. Warner is expected to glide to another November victory. The Senator says this new term will be his last as he will not seek re-election in 2032.

No surprises in the key competitive House races. In the 1st District, Henrico County Commonwealth Attorney Shannon Taylor easily won the Democratic primary against six Democratic opponents. Taylor will now challenge veteran Rep. Rob Wittman (R-Montrose) in the general election.

In the Tidewater-anchored 2nd District, former Rep. Elaine Luria won a landslide Democratic primary victory opposite three opponents. The Luria victory sets up a rematch of the 2022 campaign between she and two-term Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-Virginia Beach).

In the mid-state 5th District, another former House member is attempting a political comeback. Former Rep. Tom Perriello scored a big Democratic primary win and will now challenge freshman Rep. John McGuire (R-Manakin-Sabot) who also won renomination in a landslide proportion. In a good sign for Rep. McGuire, Republican primary turnout far exceeded his Democratic counterparts’ participation figure.

In the Alexandria-Arlington 8th District, veteran Rep. Don Beyer (D-Alexandria) won renomination with two-thirds of the Democratic primary vote against four opponents.

Washington

The all-mail Washington ballots were reported quickly, because the state election officials allow the counting and release of the vote totals after the polls close. Therefore, result reporting is quick. Approximately 50 percent of the projected vote total came through early voting.

In the 3rd District, with under 60 percent of the vote counted, it is clear that Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-Skamania County) and state Senate Minority Leader John Braun (R-Chehalis) will advance to the general election. The early vote totals have Rep. Perez and Sen. Braun virtually even, again suggesting that this will be a premier general election campaign and a likely must-win for the GOP if they are to hold the majority.

The open 4th District sees Yakima County Commissioner Amanda McKinney (R) and retired Air Force officer John Duresky advancing to the general election. The open 4th District (Rep. Dan Newhouse-R retiring) is one of two safe Republican seats in the state. This gives McKinney the clear inside track to claiming the general election in November.

In the Spokane-anchored 5th District, freshman Rep. Michael Baumgartner (R-Spokane) captured just about 50 percent of the early vote and has clinched the first general election slot. It appears that Democratic retired US diplomat Carmela Conroy will also advance. Rep. Baumgartner will be favored for re-election.

Primary Preview:
Missouri, Virginia, and Washington

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, August 4, 2026

In addition to the Michigan primary, which we covered extensively yesterday, three other states, Missouri, Virginia, and Washington, are holding primaries today. Only Virginia features a statewide contest, and even that race is headed for a non‑competitive general election.

>Missouri

The state’s eight congressional campaigns lead the 2026 ballot in the Show Me State. The major primary battles are occurring in Rep. Emanuel Cleaver’s (D‑Kansas City) newly redrawn 5th District and the open 6th District, where Republican voters will choose a successor to retiring Rep. Sam Graves (R‑Tarkio). Additionally, freshman Rep. Wesley Bell (D‑St. Louis) faces a rematch with the woman he defeated in 2024, former US Rep. Cori Bush.

In the St. Louis-anchored 1st District, Rep. Bell is again locked in a tough campaign with former Rep. Bush. Their 2024 contest was bitter, and this year’s race is no different. Bush continues to portray Rep. Bell as aligned with the establishment and too close to Republicans, though the Congressman’s voting record does not support such a claim.

Rep. Bell holds a 3:1 fundraising advantage and is again expected to prevail. The 1st District is now the state’s lone Democratic seat, and it will remain under the party’s control regardless of who wins tonight’s nomination.

In the St. Louis suburban 2nd District, veteran US Rep. Ann Wagner (R‑Ballwin) and Democratic retired Army officer Fred Wellman both appear to be facing only minor opposition for their respective nominations. With a partisan lean of 54.5R – 43.2D (Dave’s Redistricting App), Rep. Wagner has the inside track for November, though Democrats are still expected to invest heavily to support Wellman.

The newly drawn 5th Congressional District was the focal point of Missouri’s 2026 redistricting plan. Its partisan lean shifts from 60.8D – 35.9R to 56.6R – 41.1D, making a Republican victory in November highly likely and placing Rep. Cleaver at serious political risk. This seat is central to GOP hopes of protecting their slim House majority. Six Republicans are competing for the nomination, and three appear viable.

Rep. Graves is retiring after 26 years in Congress and eight years in the Missouri legislature. Tonight’s GOP primary will determine his successor. He has endorsed radio talk show host Chris Stigall, one of five Republicans on the ballot. Stigall’s strongest competitors are Kansas City Councilman Nathan Willett and businessman Nathanael Schultz.

Virginia

Sen. Mark Warner (D) is on the ballot for what he says will be the final time. When announcing his 2026 re‑election bid, Warner stated that he intends to retire when the next term ends in early 2033. He is unopposed for renomination, and none of the six Republicans running appear positioned to mount a strong general‑election challenge.

Virginia’s redistricting referendum, despite passing, was nullified in court after judges ruled that the Democratic legislature and Governor violated state constitutional requirements by rushing the measure to the ballot. Lawmakers plan to return with a new referendum in 2027, to run concurrently with the state House and Senate elections. For 2026, the 2021 map remains in effect.

Rep. Rob Wittman’s (R‑Montrose) 1st District is the second‑weakest pro‑Trump seat in the state, though the President still carried the district with a five-point margin. Rep. Wittman’s likely opponent is Henrico County Commonwealth’s Attorney and 2025 Attorney General candidate Shannon Taylor, who is favored to emerge from her five‑candidate Democratic field. She is expected to run a strong general election campaign, though Rep. Wittman remains favored for 2026. He will, however, be a top target when the 2027 redistricting map is drawn.

In the Virginia Beach-anchored 2nd District, where President Trump narrowly prevailed over Kamala Harris in 2024, Rep. Jen Kiggans (R‑Virginia Beach) is seeking a third term. Her opponent will be former Congresswoman Elaine Luria (D), whom she unseated in 2022. The general election promises to be intense and highly competitive meaning it should be considered a toss‑up all the way to Election Day.

For a time, it appeared former Rep. Bob Good would return to challenge freshman Rep. John McGuire (R‑Manakin‑Sabot) in the mid‑state 5th District. Good ultimately declined, leaving Rep. McGuire unopposed in the Republican primary.

The general election, however, features a formidable Democratic candidate: former Rep. Tom Perriello. He would likely have been favored under the new map, so his decision to continue running after the referendum was struck down suggests he may be positioning himself for 2028, when district lines are expected to be more favorable for a Democratic candidate.

In the Alexandria/Arlington-anchored 8th District, veteran Rep. Don Beyer (D‑Alexandria) faces four Democratic challengers in a moderately competitive primary. Rep. Beyer remains a strong favorite, but the candidates may also be positioning themselves for a potential 2028 open seat. Rep. Beyer will be 78 years old at the time of the next election and will be widely viewed as a retirement possibility.

Washington

Washington is one of four states – Alaska, California, and Louisiana are the others – that use a jungle primary format. As a result, voters will not select partisan nominees tonight. Instead, the top two finishers, regardless of party or vote percentage, will advance to the general election.

The most competitive contests are in southwest District 3, where Democratic Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D‑Skamania County) is attempting to win a third term in a Republican‑leaning district; the open 4th District; and the Spokane‑anchored 5th District.

With resigned Trump appointee Joe Kent not returning for a third attempt in the 3rd CD, Republicans have an opportunity to field a stronger challenger. That candidate is state Senate Minority Leader and retired Navy Captain John Braun (R‑Chehalis), who has led in jungle primary polling. Should Sen. Braun qualify for November, as appears likely, Rep. Perez will face her toughest campaign yet in a seat that is rapidly becoming a must‑win Republican target.

In central Washington District 4, Rep. Dan Newhouse (R‑Sunnyside) is retiring, leaving six Republicans, one Democrat, and four Independents competing for the seat.

Historically, this district has set the precedent of sending two Republicans to the general election, but with only one Democrat on the ballot, retired Air Force officer John Duresky, the chances of his advancing have substantially improved. Republicans are still very likely to hold the seat, potentially with state Sen. Matt Boehnke (R‑Kennewick), though a first‑place finish for Duresky tonight is not out of the question.

In District 5, freshman Rep. Mike Baumgartner (R‑Spokane) is favored for re‑election. The remaining question is whom he will face in November: one of the six Democrats running or one of four Independents. Democrat Carmela Conroy and Independent Nate Powell both have strong prospects of securing the second ballot position needed to challenge the Congressman.

Michigan Primary Preview

By Jim Ellis — Monday, August 3, 2026

Primary

This week, six states are holding their 2026 primary elections, but none is more active than tomorrow’s Michigan nomination contests.

Today, we highlight the Wolverine State’s key races. Tomorrow, we will preview the Aug. 4 primaries in Missouri, Washington, and Virginia. On Thursday, Aug. 6, Tennessee voters choose their nominees, and on Saturday, Aug. 9, Hawaii follows.

The marquee Michigan race is the Democratic US Senate primary. Former Wayne County Health/Human/Veterans Department director Abdul El‑Sayed faces Congresswoman Haley Stevens (D‑Birmingham).

Although Democratic leaders have rallied around Stevens since state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D‑Royal Oak) exited the race in early July, El‑Sayed holds a commanding advantage in public polling. Across the last eight publicly released surveys, from eight different pollsters, El‑Sayed’s average lead is 14.9 percentage points.

Tomorrow’s winner faces former US Representative and 2024 US Senate nominee Mike Rogers, who is virtually unencumbered in the Republican primary.

The gubernatorial primaries are less dramatic. On the Democratic side, Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson is the clear favorite and is expected to cruise to the nomination.

For Republicans, Congressman John James (R‑Farmington Hills), who previously ran two close statewide races, leads businessman and frequent candidate Perry Johnson. A Benson-James general election matchup is the anticipated outcome. Former Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan had previously launched an Independent bid that would have created an intriguing three‑way race, but he suspended his campaign in late May.

Michigan also features a full slate of competitive congressional primaries. In the 4th District, where Congressman Bill Huizenga (R‑Holland) faces a competitive general election, Democratic state Sen. Sean McCann (D‑Kalamazoo) is likely to prevail with his party’s nomination, setting up what promises to be a closely watched November contest.

The 7th CD is likely to host the fiercest campaign in the delegation. Freshman Congressman Tom Barrett (R‑Charlotte/ Lansing) will defend his seat against one of three Democratic contenders: political organizer William Lawrence, retired Navy SEAL Matt Maasdam, and former Ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink.

The 8th District will also be competitive. Freshman Bay City Democrat Kristin MacDonald Rivet seeks a second term and is unopposed in the Democratic primary. Republicans have a three‑way contest, with former US Postal Service Inspector and Navy veteran Amir Hassan, who has raised roughly $800,000 and holds President Trump’s endorsement, favored to win. Rep. Rivet remains the favorite for re‑election, though GOP efforts may intensify after the primary.

The open 10th District promises a highly contested general election. Congressman James is vacating the seat to run for Governor, having twice won close races in this politically swing district. The leading Republican is Mike Bouchard Jr., son of longtime Oakland County Sheriff and former statewide nominee Michael Bouchard, Sr.

With strong name recognition, Bouchard Jr. is expected to win the GOP nomination. He will face one of three Democratic candidates: former US Commerce Department official Eric Chung, Pontiac Mayor Tim Greimel, and ex-Macomb County local office nominee Christina Hines who has led in several polls.

In District 11, which Congresswoman Stevens is vacating to run for the Senate, the decisive contest is the Democratic primary; therefore, tomorrow’s winner will claim the seat in November. State Senate President Pro Tempore Jeremy Moss (D-Southfield) is favored over three opponents.

District 13, anchored in Detroit, again features Congressman Shri Thanedar (D‑Detroit) facing a Democratic primary battle. Rep. Thanedar is seeking a third term, and his principal challenger is state Representative Donovan McKinney (D‑Detroit). Detroit City Councilwoman Mary Waters failed to qualify for the ballot due to insufficient petition signatures but is running as a write‑in candidate. The Thanedar-McKinney contest will be close, with the winner headed to Washington after November.

As these races illustrate, Michigan’s election card is full, and tomorrow night’s coverage will be extensive with the Democratic Senate primary as the headline attraction.

South Carolina Senate Special
Election Candidate Filing Closes

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, July 30, 2026

Senate

Candidate filing closed yesterday for the South Carolina special Republican Senate primary, and no fewer than eight individuals filed to challenge appointed Sen. Darline Graham despite her carrying President Trump’s endorsement.

The death of Sen. Lindsey Graham earlier this month required state Republican leaders to schedule a quick special election to replace him on the ballot. The primary will be held Tuesday, Aug. 11. If no candidate receives a majority, the top two finishers will advance to an Aug. 25 runoff.

The headline challengers are two sitting US House members: Rep. Ralph Norman (R‑Rock Hill), who finished a distant third in June’s gubernatorial primary, and Rep. Russell Fry (R‑Murrell’s Inlet/Myrtle Beach).

Other notable entrants include former Myrtle Beach Mayor and ex‑City Councilman Mark McBride – an unwelcome development for Rep. Fry, since McBride is likely to siphon votes from the northeastern South Carolina region – and wealthy businessman Mark Lynch, who drew 29 percent in his June primary challenge to Lindsey Graham. Former Governor and Congressman Mark Sanford, who considered entering the 1st District regular primary but ultimately did not, also filed for the Senate special.

Three apparent also-ran candidates also filed: former Waterboro City Councilman Duke Buckner, businesswoman Glenda Gail Parker, and biochemical engineer Sam Shepherd.

This crowded field makes it unlikely that any candidate, including Sen. Graham, will reach the 50 percent threshold. The most probable runoff scenario involves two of the three leading contenders – Sen. Graham, Rep. Norman, and Rep. Fry. Should Graham fail to win outright, she would enter the runoff at a disadvantage, since a majority of voters would have already chosen someone else.

Historically, family members of deceased officeholders often perform well in replacement elections, though Democratic family members typically perform better than Republicans.

In terms of campaign resources, Rep. Norman is independently wealthy and capable of quickly self‑funding at a seven‑figure level. Rep. Fry has roughly $1 million in his House campaign account that can be transferred to a Senate committee. Sen. Graham must raise funds into a new federal committee, but a supportive Super PAC has indicated it is prepared to spend $1.5 million on her behalf. Lynch, who spent more than $5 million on his unsuccessful June challenge, is also well‑financed and capable of again investing heavily, this time in a short‑term race.

Turnout will be key, as is typical in special elections. In June, 464,709 voters participated in the regular Senate primary, and it is likely that considerably fewer will cast ballots in the Aug. 11 special primary.

Lindsey Graham received 264,091 votes in securing his 57 percent primary win, giving the late Senator’s sister a substantial Graham‑aligned vote base from which to begin assembling a victory coalition. In the regular Senate primary, Mark Lynch drew 134,360 votes, and in the Republican gubernatorial primary, Rep. Ralph Norman received 80,790 votes.

With at least these three candidates capable of attracting significant support, the Aug. 11 primary is poised to be highly competitive, increasing the likelihood that the nomination will not be decided until the Aug. 25 runoff.

The eventual Republican nominee will be favored in November against Democratic nominee Annie Andrews, given South Carolina’s strong Republican voting history. It remains to be seen which of the major contenders will ultimately secure the nomination.

Close Races to Watch:
Michigan & Minnesota

By Jim Ellis — Friday, July 24, 2026

Questions are surfacing about whether the Democratic Socialist victories seen in the recent New York and Colorado primaries signal a broader trend or are simply localized outcomes. The upcoming US Senate primaries in Michigan and Minnesota will offer clearer evidence.

Michigan

In Michigan, the Aug. 4 Democratic primary features a highly competitive contest between Democratic Socialist Abdul El‑Sayed, the former director of Wayne County’s Department of Health, Human, and Veterans Services, and Rep. Haley Stevens (D‑Birmingham). Earlier, the race was a three‑way contest including state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D‑Royal Oak). On July 5, Sen. McMorrow suspended her statewide campaign indicating that she had no viable victory path. Her withdrawal came too late to remove her name from the ballot; therefore, McMorrow will attract some percentage of the vote, which could affect the final outcome.

Two recent surveys suggest El‑Sayed is opening a substantial lead despite most Democratic establishment figures publicly backing Rep. Stevens. Tulchin Research (July 13-15; 500 likely Michigan Democratic primary voters) shows El‑Sayed ahead 56-40 percent. A Data for Progress poll conducted in a similar period (July 10-14; 614 likely Michigan Democratic primary voters) finds a comparable result: El‑Sayed leading 54-41 percent.

Former seven‑term Rep. Mike Rogers, who lost the 2024 Senate race to Elissa Slotkin by three‑tenths of a percentage point, will easily secure the Republican nomination. Conventional political analysis suggests Rogers might prefer facing El‑Sayed, believing he could frame him as too far left, thus providing an opportunity to gain support among Independents. While general election polling is close in both matchups, El‑Sayed currently performs slightly better than Stevens.

Rogers trailed Slotkin in most 2024 polling until the final two weeks, and his standing at this stage of the 2026 cycle is stronger than it was two years ago as is his campaign war chest. A Republican victory in Michigan would likely secure continued GOP control of the Senate, making the Aug. 4th Democratic primary outcome even more consequential.

Minnesota

In Minnesota, Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan is the Democratic Socialist candidate. She has support not only from ideological allies such as Sens. Bernie Sanders (I‑VT), Elizabeth Warren (D‑MA) and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio‑Cortez (D‑NY), but also from the state’s Democratic establishment, including Gov. Tim Walz, retiring Sen. Tina Smith, Rep. Ilhan Omar (D‑Minneapolis), and former Sen. Al Franken.

Her opponent, Rep. Angie Craig (D‑Prior Lake), has a significant fundraising advantage, raising twice as much as Flanagan and holding a $5 million to $1.5 million cash‑on‑hand edge. Rep. Craig’s support comes heavily from labor unions coupled with a long list of endorsements from state legislators and local officials.

The latest poll for this campaign, from SurveyUSA for KSTP Channel 5 in St. Paul (July 15-20; 513 likely Minnesota Democratic primary voters), finds the two contenders locked in a dead heat tie at 40-40 percent. In late June, Public Policy Polling tested the race (June 25-26; 604 likely Minnesota Democratic primary voters; live interview & text) and posted Flanagan to a 43-36 percent advantage.

Just before PPP went into the field, SurveyUSA, as part of their polling series for KSTP, sampled a different 513 likely Democratic primary voters over the June 11-16 period. Comparing the two Survey USA polls yielded a Flanagan net gain of five percentage points from June to July to bring the Lieutenant Governor into the tied result that the latter S-USA study reflected.

The Minnesota primary has a week longer primary period, which could help Rep. Craig because, she has a financial advantage. As is the case in any primary, turnout will determine the outcome, and with the type of support that Flanagan has, she might have a grassroots edge.

These campaigns will provide insight not only into the strength of the Democratic Socialist movement but also into general‑election positioning, since in both states the Republican nominees are effectively set.

The presumed Republican nominee is former national sportscaster Michele Tafoya. She trails both Flanagan and Craig, but conventional wisdom holds that her best chance to make the general election competitive would be against Lt. Gov. Flanagan. In either pairing, Democrats currently hold the advantage, though Tafoya is already within the polling margin of error.

In the coming weeks, the Michigan and Minnesota primaries will yield valuable data about the trajectory of the Democratic Socialist movement and help refine expectations for the general election landscape.

Polling: Appointed Sen. Darlene
Graham No Cinch to Last Full Term

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, June 23, 2026.

US Senate

There has been some question as to whether the announced South Carolina special election Senate Republican candidates would reconsider their plans now that appointed Sen. Darline Graham has decided to run for the full six-year term. Two new polls may have just provided early answers.

With the July 28 candidate filing deadline approaching, two new surveys suggest that Reps. Ralph Norman (R Rock Hill) and Russell Fry (R Murrell’s Inlet/Myrtle Beach), along with businessman Mark Lynch, have little incentive to withdraw. Contrary to early assumptions, Sen. Darline Graham apparently does not begin the race with a clear advantage.

The new polling, conducted by Peak Insights (July 18–20; 900 likely Republican special primary voters; live interview & text) and Innovative Communication Strategies (July 20-21; 788 likely Republican special primary voters; text to web), indicates that another individual – one not currently running – holds the early lead.

Peak Insights finds former Congressman and Fox News host Trey Gowdy holding a 38 percent preference figure, well ahead of Rep. Norman at 13 percent, and Rep. Fry and Sen. Graham (listed on the survey questionnaire as Darline Graham Nardone) tied with nine percent. Lynch follows with seven percent support. ICS did not test Gowdy; without him in the field, their results show Rep. Norman holding a 19-16-12-9 percent edge over Sen. Graham (also listed as Darline Graham Nardone on the survey questionnaire), Rep. Fry, and Lynch.

Gowdy’s strength is notable given that he has made no visible move toward entering the race. Sen. Tim Scott (R), now the state’s senior Senator, has publicly argued – prior to Sen. Graham’s announcement – that Gowdy would be the strongest possible Republican nominee. The Peak Insights data suggests that the Senator’s assessment is correct.

Another central question in what now appears to be a competitive contest is campaign finance. Sen. Graham begins with no funds, as she must form a new federal campaign committee. Only $2,000 from Lindsey Graham’s account could be transferred to her campaign, assuming the committee treasurer has authority to make disbursements following the principal’s death.

Rep. Fry is in the strongest financial position: his June 30 FEC report shows $1.04 million available for transfer to a Senate committee. Rep. Norman reports $90,314 cash on hand but he has substantial personal wealth and could quickly self fund. Lynch, who challenged Sen. Lindsey Graham in this year’s regular primary, retains more than $568,000 cash on hand after loaning his campaign over $5 million.

Among the major contenders, Sen. Graham is therefore at the greatest financial disadvantage, and the compressed timeline makes lightning-fast fundraising difficult. A supportive Super PAC could intervene on her behalf, and given her endorsement from President Trump, such an effort is plausible. If her campaign can assemble an operational structure – likely with significant assistance from Lindsey Graham’s former political staff – she will be able to communicate the Trump endorsement, which has been a decisive asset in almost all Republican primaries.

The key question is whether a newly formed Graham campaign, even with Trump’s backing, can win outright on Aug. 11. If these polls are reasonably accurate – and both point to similar conclusions about Sen. Graham’s early standing – it appears unlikely that any candidate will reach a majority.

Based upon current information, the Aug. 11 primary is likely to force a runoff on Aug. 25 between the top two finishers. In a head-to-head contest between Sen. Graham and either Rep. Norman or Rep. Fry, the available data suggests that the result is uncertain.

Sen. Darline Graham Announces

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, July 21, 2026

US Senate

Newly appointed South Carolina Sen. Darline Graham (R)

Newly appointed South Carolina Sen. Darline Graham (R) announced yesterday that she will compete in the Aug. 11 special election to fill her late brother’s seat for the full six-year term. Originally, it was believed that Sen. Graham was being appointed as a caretaker through the remainder of Sen. Lindsey Graham’s term, but that is not the case.

Also yesterday, Rep. Russell Fry (R Murrell’s Inlet/Myrtle Beach) said he would enter the Senate race without relinquishing his nomination for re election in the 7th Congressional District. Previously, Fry had been viewed as President Trump’s preferred candidate, but before Sen. Graham’s announcement, the President issued a “complete and total” endorsement of her candidacy.

Over the weekend, Rep. Ralph Norman (R Rock Hill), who lost the gubernatorial primary in June, declared his candidacy for the Senate special election. Businessman Mark Lynch, who lost the June primary to the late Sen. Lindsey Graham, is also an announced contender. How Reps. Fry and Norman proceed now that Sen. Graham is in the race – with both the Trump endorsement and her late brother’s legacy – remains to be seen. The appointed incumbent is widely regarded as the early favorite in this developing campaign.

The candidate filing deadline is July 28, which explains the timing of these announcements. With Sen. Darline Graham now officially running, it is unclear whether all previously announced candidates will complete their filings. The special primary is rapidly approaching. If no candidate receives majority support on the 11th, the top two finishers will advance to an Aug. 25 runoff.

Under South Carolina election law, all registered voters are eligible to participate in the Senate Republican special primary unless the individual previously voted in a 2026 partisan Democratic election, i.e., the Democratic primary or runoff. South Carolina also recognizes seven minor parties, but none held 2026 nominating primaries; therefore, members of those parties are eligible to vote in the special election.

Rep. Fry’s intention to remain the 7th District nominee is also a point of uncertainty. If he does not win the Senate primary, he would continue as the GOP nominee for his House seat. If he wins the Senate primary, however, he must resign as the congressional nominee, prompting the 7th District Republican Party to select a replacement for the November ballot.

It is still possible that Democrats could challenge the validity of the special election because its timing does not comply with the Uniformed and Overseas Citizens Absentee Voting Act (UOCAVA), which requires 45 days’ notice for affected voters. Democratic leaders have not indicated whether they will file such a challenge, and waiting until the election becomes official could shorten the decision window to their benefit.

If a challenge were filed and be successful, Lindsey Graham’s name would likely remain on the November ballot. Should he be elected posthumously, a properly noticed special election would then be scheduled after Nov. 3.

In the meantime, Darline Graham will continue to serve as the interim Senator until the beginning of the next Congress in January. In addition to Sen. Graham, two other appointed Senators, Jon Husted (R-OH) and Ashley Moody (R-FL), will also be on the ballot in November. Both, however, will be running to serve the balance of the current term as opposed to Sen. Graham who will be seeking the full six years because the Class II South Carolina seat is in-cycle this year. The Ohio and Florida Class III Senate seats will be in-cycle for the 2028 election.

Close Races to Watch

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, July 16, 2026

Continuing our progress reports on competitive federal contests with flip or upset potential, today’s update reviews new polling from one Senate race (Michigan) and three House campaigns, one each in Florida, Nevada, and Washington.

Michigan Senate

The Michigan Democratic primary has undergone significant change within the past 10 days. State Sen. Mallory McMorrow’s (D-Royal Oak) withdrawal leaves Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham) and former Wayne County Health, Human, and Veterans Services Department director Dr. Abdul El‑Sayed competing for her supporters.

Two new polls, conducted during the same period, present sharply different pictures of the race. The Glengariff polling firm that regularly surveys the Michigan electorate (for the Detroit News; July 8-11; 500 likely Michigan Democratic primary voters) posts Rep. Stevens to a 48-41 percent lead over Dr. El-Sayed.

The Data for Progress firm, however, sees a much different result. Their survey (for the American Priorities Super Pac; July 10-14; 614 likely Michigan Democratic primary voters) projects Dr. El-Sayed as holding a double-digit lead of 54-41 percent. Taken together, the surveys show a net 20‑point swing in the candidates’ respective leads, underscoring how unsettled the primary remains.

Florida’s 14th District

Florida Rep. Kathy Castor (D-Tampa) has held a safely Democratic Tampa anchored seat for 20 years, but she now faces the most difficult campaign of her career because of the new Sunshine State redistricting map.

According to Dave’s Redistricting App, the new configuration carries a 55.5R – 43.4D partisan lean – a net shift of nearly 31 points toward the GOP when compared with the 2021 map.

Florida’s primary is Aug. 18, so Castor will not know her Republican opponent for several weeks. A new St. Pete Polls survey (July 14-15; 469 likely FL-14 voters; automated calling and text) projects Rep. Castor to be holding a lead over the two most likely individuals favored to win the GOP primary.

According to the St. Pete data, Rep. Castor leads both former state Rep. Mike Beltran and current state Rep. Kevin Steele (R-Hudson), one of whom is likely to top the field of eight Republican hopefuls. Isolated with Beltran, the Castor advantage is 46-38 percent. If Rep. Steele becomes the party nominee, the early result is an almost identical 46-39 percent.

These early numbers likely reflect Castor’s strong name recognition. Once Republicans choose a nominee and the general election begins in earnest, the race is expected to tighten. FL‑14 is a must‑win for Republicans if they hope to maintain their narrow House majority.

Nevada’s 2nd District

Controversy surrounds Republican nominee David Flippo, a retired Air Force Lieutenant Colonel, in Nevada’s safest GOP seat. Critics highlight his recent political history: Flippo ran for Congress in NV‑4 in 2024 and for the state Assembly in a North Las Vegas district in 2022 – both far from the northern, Reno‑anchored NV‑2.

Despite the 2nd District’s strong Republican partisan lean (53.8R – 40.5D, per Dave’s Redistricting App), the new GOP congressional nominee trails in a recent ballot test. A Wedgewood Polls survey (July 9-12; 350 likely voters; online panel) shows former state House Majority Leader Teresa Benitz‑Thompson (D) leading Flippo 48-46 percent.

While the margin suggests a statistical tie, Flippo’s standing represents a significant underperformance in a district that should yield a mid- to high-50s Republican victory in November.

Washington’s 3rd District

Southwest Washington remains one of the GOP’s strongest non‑redistricting conversion opportunities. Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D–Skamania County) has twice surprised Republicans by winning a district with a 52.0R – 45.6D partisan lean, but she now faces a more formidable challenger.

State Senate Minority Leader John Braun (R–Chehalis) is the likely general‑election finalist emerging from the Aug. 4 jungle primary. A new Emerson College survey (July 8–10; 500 likely voters; multiple sampling techniques) forecasts Sen. Braun as holding a slight edge over Rep. Perez, 45-44 percent.

In the jungle primary, Sen. Braun leads the nine‑candidate field with 26 percent, while Rep. Perez posts 25 percent – a major warning sign for the incumbent. Once the primary concludes, this race is poised to become one of the cycle’s major battles.