Category Archives: Redistricting

Pennsylvania’s McCormick Announces for Senate; Retired Police Chief Craig to Announce Candidacy; Anti-Impeachment Rep. May Resign; IL-17 Battle; No Re-Election Run for Rep. Baird; Primary Clash Evolving in Maine; Chaffetz Declines to Run

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Sept. 25, 2023

Senate

Pennsylvania: Republicans Get Their Man — David McCormick, the former CEO of the Bridgewater Associates hedge fund who lost to Dr. Mehmet Oz by just 950 votes in the 2022 Pennsylvania US Senate race, announced late last week that he is returning next year to challenge Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D). Though he faces an uphill battle, McCormick’s presence gives the Republicans a credible candidate with whom to challenge the three-term incumbent.

Though Pennsylvania decidedly leans Democratic, it is one of the top targeted states in the presidential election. While that will mean more focus on former President Donald Trump throughout the general election campaign, it also means that McCormick will be the beneficiary of more party resources being spent on organization and voter turnout operations. At this point, Sen. Casey must be rated a clear favorite for re-election, but this contest is now a race to watch.

Retired Detroit Police Chief James Craig (R)

Michigan: Another Candidate to Announce — According to the Politico publication, retired Detroit Police Chief James Craig (R) will announce his US Senate candidacy at the beginning of October. Craig had filed to run for governor in 2022 but failed to return the proper number of valid petition signatures, thus disqualifying him.

Assuming this report is true, Craig will enter an Aug. 6 Republican primary against the favorite for the nomination, former Congressman Mike Rogers, and Michigan Board of Education member Nikki Snyder who was the first candidate to announce. The winner will then likely challenge Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) who is favored to win the Democratic nomination.

House

CO-4: Rep. Buck Faces Potential GOP Challenge, May Resign — Rep. Ken Buck (R-Windsor), who has been critical of the House Republican leadership for moving to an impeachment hearing against President Joe Biden, may resign his seat. Apparently, he is talking to both MSNBC and CNN about developing a contractual relationship.

Additionally, as a direct result of his latest Republican-on-Republican attacks, Rep. Buck may have drawn a potential GOP primary challenger. State Rep. Richard Holtorf (R-Akron) filed a congressional exploratory committee to assess his chances against Rep. Buck in the expansive eastern Colorado district. The 4th District is safely Republican (R+26 according to the FiveThirtyEight data organization) and encompasses most of the Colorado territory north and east of the Denver metropolitan area.

IL-17: Former Local Judge to Run for Congress — Former Circuit Judge Joseph McGraw (R), who resigned from the bench in July igniting speculation that he would run for Congress, has filed an organizational committee with the Federal Election Commission. He would join a field that includes businessman Ray Estrada and farmer Scot Crowl. The eventual Republican nominee will then challenge freshman Rep. Eric Sorensen (D-Moline) in a heavily gerrymandered district that begins in the city of Rockford, meanders west to capture the Illinois side of the Quad Cities, then back east to the cities of Galesburg, Peoria, and Bloomington.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as D+4. Dave’s Redistricting App calculates the partisan lean at 51.1D – 44.0R. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks IL-17 as the 26th most vulnerable seat in the Democratic conference. Republican Esther Joy King twice ran here, losing a competitive 2022 battle to Sorensen by a 52-48 percent count.

IN-4: Rep. Baird Reportedly Won’t Run for Re-Election — The local Indiana blog Howey Politics is reporting that US Rep. Jim Baird (R-Greencastle) is planning to retire in 2024 but may time his announcement to block other Republicans from challenging his son, state Rep. Beau Baird (R). The 4th District, located north and west of Indianapolis, is safely Republican. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+33. The Daily Kos House overview ranks IN-4 as the 59th safest seat in the Republican conference.

Now that local media reports are already covering this story, the element of surprise has been lost. Therefore, potential candidates wanting to run will now be ready to file in case Rep. Baird does not.

ME-2: Republican Primary Developing — Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, which has delivered an electoral vote to Donald Trump both in 2016 and 2020, is rated as the second-most vulnerable seat in the Democratic conference. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+10 yet, and largely thanks to Maine’s Ranked Choice Voting system, Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) has won three consecutive elections here.

With former Rep. Bruce Poliquin (R) out of the 2024 picture, Republican leaders were pleased to see state representative and former NASCAR driver Austin Theriault (R-Fort Kent) come forward last week to declare his congressional candidacy. Now, Theriault has company. Fellow state Rep. Michael Soboleski (R-Phillips) declared his candidacy, thus creating a Republican nomination battle in the June 18, 2024, state primary. Regardless of who wins the party nomination, ME-2 will be a major GOP target race next year.

Governor

Utah: Ex-Rep Chaffetz Not Likely to Run — Former congressman and Fox News contributor Jason Chaffetz (R) late last week ruled out challenging Gov. Spencer Cox in next year’s Republican primary and also said, while not closing the door on running for Sen. Mitt Romney’s (R) open seat, that the Senate race is “not something I’m actively pursuing.” The political move that he finds most attractive at present is entering the open 2028 gubernatorial campaign when Gov. Cox will be ineligible to seek re-election.

Biden Maintains Standing Against Kennedy; Trump Grows Stronger; New California Open-Seat Candidate; Ex-Candidate Returns to NC-8 Race

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Sept. 15, 2023

President

President Joe Biden / Photo by Gage Skidmore

President Biden: Maintains Standing Against Kennedy — The newly released Issues & Insights TIPP poll (Aug. 30-Sept. 1; 606 likely US Democratic primary voters; online) again finds President Joe Biden holding an overwhelming lead over Robert F. Kennedy Jr. in a Democratic primary trial heat.

The margin, though still on the weak side for an incumbent president, considering that 32 percent of the Democratic respondents would choose a candidate other than Biden, continues to stake the President to a 68-10 percent margin.

More importantly than the Biden number, which fluctuates to a degree, the Kennedy support figure has remained consistent in the low double-digit range. The fact that we have seen little movement in the nomination campaign despite months of campaigning from Kennedy, suggests that the final result will not differ greatly from what we’re seeing in the multitude of similar polling totals.

Iowa: Trump Grows Stronger — The newly released Emerson College Hawkeye State survey (Sept. 7-9; 839 Iowa respondents; 357 likely Iowa Republican caucus attenders; multiple sampling techniques) stakes former President Donald Trump to a 50-39 percent advantage over President Biden in a head-to-head ballot test. If Green Party candidate Dr. Cornel West is added to the questionnaire, Trump would lead both Biden and West, 48-35-5 percent.

Comparing Trump’s current polling numbers to those found during the 2016 and 2020 election cycle indicates that the former president’s lead over Biden could be even greater. In the two previous elections, Trump clearly under-polled in Iowa surveys when compared with the ultimate final result.

House

CA-31: Ex-Rep Enters California Open Seat Campaign — Former US Rep. Gil Cisneros (D), who was elected in 2018 but defeated for re-election two years later in a pre-redistricting Los Angeles-Orange County congressional district, and then who served as a Defense Department Under Secretary in the Biden Administration, has once again become an unofficial congressional candidate. Cisneros this week filed exploratory committee documents with the Federal Election Commission that allow a potential candidate the ability to raise greater than $5,000 in campaign funds.

The former congressman is starting from scratch in his new CD. The open 31st District, from which veteran Rep. Grace Napolitano (D-Norwalk) is retiring, has no constituent in common with the district that Cisneros previously represented. He won’t have money problems, however. You may recall that in 2010, Cisneros, then a recently retired US Navy officer, won a $266 million Mega Millions lottery so campaign funding should not be a particular issue for him.

State senators Bob Archuleta (D-Norwalk) and Susan Rubio (D-Baldwin Park) who represent large parts of the current CD will offer stiff competition, however. The seat will remain in Democratic hands, and it is likely that two Democrats will advance into the general election from the California top-two jungle primary system but there is no early guarantee that Cisneros will be one of the qualifiers.

NC-8: Ex-Candidate Harris to Return — In 2018, it looked for a time that Republican former pastor Mark Harris had won a southern North Carolina congressional seat. After challenges uncovered serious voter fraud and a new election was called, Harris withdrew from the campaign.

Then-state Sen. Dan Bishop (R-Charlotte) went on to claim the seat despite being badly outspent in the special general election. Now, Bishop is leaving the House to run for state attorney general. Harris announced Tuesday that he will return as a candidate in what will be an open 2024 election.

The district, however, may be drastically changed once the legislature submits a new redistricting plan sometime next month, so it is likely too early to forge any serious predictions. The only other announced candidate from either party is former Union County Commissioner Allan Baucom. Currently, Union County is the Republican bedrock of the 8th CD, a district the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as a whopping R+38.

Former NASCAR Driver Declares in Maine; Ohio Redistricting Lines Stand; New Candidates in CO-8 & VA-2

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Sept. 11, 2023

House

Austin Theriault (R), retired NASCAR driver

ME-2: Former NASCAR Driver Declares for Congress — Austin Theriault (R), a retired NASCAR driver who is now a state representative from one of the Canadian border districts in northern Maine, is reportedly planning to challenge Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) in the most Republican district that elects a Democrat to the House. Rep. Golden has twice defeated now-former Rep. Bruce Poliquin (R) with the help of the Ranked Choice Voting system, which eliminates the possibility of a plurality victory.

Without Poliquin making a return appearance, Republicans need a fresh candidate to potentially take advantage of what could be a more favorable GOP turnout model. Former President Donald Trump has twice carried the 2nd District, in 2020 by six percentage points, so running with him in 2024 is more attractive than in other election years.

Ohio Redistricting: Lines Will Stand for 2024 — The Ohio State Supreme Court late this week rejected plaintiffs’ arguments that a new congressional map should be drawn, meaning the current lines will remain intact for the 2024 election. Under the original redistricting act’s passage, the map was to be reconfigured after four years, meaning before the 2026 election. That remains to be the case. In the meantime, activists are attempting to qualify a ballot initiative that would transform the Ohio redistricting system into a citizens’ commission. The initiative organizers need 413,000 valid Ohio registered voter signatures to qualify their measure for a vote in the 2024 election.

CO-8: GOP State Rep Announces Candidacy — State Rep. Gabe Evans (R-Westminster), an Army veteran and ex-police officer, has entered the 8th District Republican congressional primary with the quest of challenging freshman Rep. Yadira Caraveo (D-Thornton) who represents one of the most politically marginal districts in the country. The 8th District was awarded to Colorado in the 2020 national apportionment formula due to extensive population growth.

The Colorado Independent Redistricting Commission crafted the seat, just north of Denver, as one that either party can win in any election year. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat R+3, while Dave’s Redistricting App calculates a partisan lean that slightly favors the Democrats, 48.3D – 47.0R. President Joe Biden carried the district, 50.8 – 46.3 percent.

Rep. Evans, should he win the primary, will be a strong candidate for the Republicans. State Sen. Barbara Kirkmeyer (R-Weld County), who held Rep. Caraveo to a 48.4 – 47.7 percent tight victory, is not seeking a re-match. Instead, she is running for re-election to her current position in the state Senate. Weld County Commissioner Scott James will be opposing Evans for the Republican nomination.

VA-2: Democrats Recruit Challenger Candidate — In further evidence that defeated Rep. Elaine Luria (D) will not seek a re-match with freshman Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-Virginia Beach), Democrats have found a new candidate in the person of Missy Cotter Smasal, a Navy veteran and former state Senate candidate. At this point, she is the only announced Democratic contender and has support from former Gov. Ralph Northam (D) and newly elected US Rep. Jennifer McClellan (D-Richmond).

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the Virginia Beach anchored 2nd District as R+6. Dave’s Redistricting App calculates the partisan lean at 50.1R – 48.3D.

WI-3: Former Local Board Chairman Enters Cong Race — Former La Crosse County Board chair Tara Johnson, who served 20 years on the local panel, announced that she is joining the Democratic primary in hope of challenging freshman Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien/La Crosse) in next year’s general election.

The race is getting more attention from Democrats who believe southern Wisconsin will be redrawn with their presumption that the new state Supreme Court Democratic majority will find a way to toss the current map. Johnson joins business owner and 2022 congressional candidate Rebecca Cooke in the Democratic primary. The seat appears relatively safe for Rep. Van Orden in its current configuration, but a redraw could drastically change the situation.

GOP Changes Delegate Allocation Rules; Former Rep. Cisneros May Return; Re-Match Possible in New Hampshire, Other House News; Wisconsin Redistricting Lawsuit

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Aug. 4, 2023

President

California: GOP Changes Delegate Allocation Rules — The California Republican Party’s executive committee, a total of 100 members, voted to change the way the state allocates its Republican delegates. Despite California being a poor performer for Republicans, the presidential delegation to the GOP national convention is still the largest in the country. In 2024, the state will feature 169 voting delegates.

Instead of allocating the delegates through the state’s 52 congressional districts – three delegates per district plus at-large votes – the California GOP will now authorize a system that awards a winning candidate who obtains majority support in the March 5, 2024 primary all of the state’s delegate votes. Many states use this system, but California doing so will provide an extra vote boost to the Golden State primary winner.

At this point, several polls show former President Donald Trump at or exceeding the 50 percent threshold. The change makes it all the more likely that the nomination will be clinched as voting ends on Super Tuesday.

House

One-term ex-Congressman Gil Cisneros (D)

CA-31: Former Rep. Cisneros May Return — One-term ex-Congressman Gil Cisneros (D), a former US Navy officer who struck it rich in winning over $200 million from a major lottery, has resigned his position as Under Secretary of Defense. Speculation suggests this is his first definitive move to declare for retiring Rep. Grace Napolitano’s (D-Norwalk) Los Angeles County congressional seat.

Cisneros defeated now-Congresswoman Young Kim (R-La Habra) in 2018 from a 39th District that covered parts of Los Angeles and Orange counties. In 2020, Kim returned for a re-match and reversed the outcome. She now represents the post-redistricting 40th CD that covers parts of Orange, Riverside, and San Bernardino counties.

Already in the open 31st District race are state senators Bob Archuleta (D-Pico Rivera) and Susan Rubio (D-Baldwin Park) along with Community College Trustee and former Monrovia Mayor Mary Ann Lutz (D). It is likely that two Democrats will advance into the general election from the all-party primary. While Cisneros represented virtually none of the current 31st CD during his previous stint in the House, even Rep. Napolitano fails to reside within the district, so the lack of residency is likely not much of a detriment.

NH-2: Re-Match Possible — Former Hillsborough County Treasurer Robert Burns (R), who lost the 2022 congressional race 56-44 percent to veteran Rep. Annie Kuster (D-Hopkinton/ Concord), confirms that he is considering returning for a re-match. His decision is nowhere close to being made, however. He also says he would like to run for governor and would even consider a bid for Executive Councilor if one of those seats were to open. It is likely the Republican leadership would prefer a more committed candidate.

Since the New Hampshire June candidate filing deadline is later than most state’s primaries, this race will develop over a long period. At this point, Rep. Kuster will be favored to win a seventh term in 2024.

PA-7: New Candidate Announces — The Public Affairs director of the Philadelphia Convention Center, Maria Montero (R), announced her congressional candidacy Wednesday. This will be the second time she has run for the US House. Montero, also former staff member for Republican former Gov. Tom Corbett, entered the special nomination for the 12th District seat, closer to central PA, when then-Rep. Tom Marino (R) resigned. She lost to then-state Rep. Fred Keller who would go onto win the special election.

Already in the race are state Rep. Ryan MacKenzie (R-Macungie) and 2022 candidate Kevin Dellicker who secured 49 percent of the Republican primary vote. The winner will face vulnerable Rep. Susan Wild (D-Allentown) in a politically marginal 7th CD that covers the Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton area. In the past two competitive elections against Republican Lisa Scheller, Rep. Wild has been re-elected with 52 and 51 percent of the vote.

UT-2: Maloy Approved for Ballot — Celeste Maloy, who the Republican 2nd District convention chose as its candidate for the special election to replace resigning Rep. Christopher Stewart (R-Farmington), has faced a serious challenge to her standing as a candidate.

A state judge in ruling Wednesday over a lawsuit filed against Maloy claiming that she did not meet the state’s residency requirement to run for Congress, declared that she will be slated on the Sept. 5 special primary ballot. The judge stated that “the public interest favors respecting the party convention’s choice.” He further said that the election process is well underway, and ballots have been printed. Therefore, altering the candidate configuration would be disruptive.

Earning Republican ballot positions through the signature petition process are former state Rep. Becky Edwards and ex-Republican National Committeeman Bruce Hough. Democrats have united around state Sen. Kathleen Riebe (D-Cottonwood Heights). The special general election is scheduled for Nov. 21. Rep. Stewart will resign on Sept. 15.

States

Wisconsin: Redistricting Lawsuit Filed — A coalition of law firms and progressive left activists filed a challenge to Wisconsin’s state Senate and Assembly redistricting maps, labeling them partisan gerrymanders. Now that the new liberal majority state Supreme Court has taken office, the plaintiffs winning this lawsuit is probably just a matter of time.

The court will likely order a redraw of the two plans, which will almost assuredly be a precursor to the congressional map being re-configured as well. At this time, however, the federal plan is not included in this particular lawsuit.

Rep. Raskin Won’t Run for Senate; Retired Navy Captain Running for Senate in Virginia; House Race Updates; New Mexico Supreme Court Allows Gerrymandering Case

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, July 11, 2023

Senate

Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Takoma Park)

Maryland: Rep. Raskin Won’t Run for Senate — Saying, “if these were normal times, I’m pretty sure I would run for the Senate,” Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Takoma Park) said he will not enter the race to succeed retiring Maryland Sen. Ben Cardin (D). The congressman, as he has in the past, continued to thank the medical personnel who helped him through six rounds of five-day chemotherapy treatments that appears to have eradicated his cancer. Raskin further said he can best way he can “make a difference in American politics,” is to seek re-election to the US House. He will be a prohibitive favorite to win a fifth term next year.

Virginia: Ex-Congressional Candidate Announces for Senate — Retired Navy Capt. Hung Cao (R), who held Rep. Jennifer Weston (D-Leesburg) to a 53-47 percent re-election win in a district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as D+8 and the Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean projects a 55.2D – 43.0R Democratic advantage, will now attempt to challenge Sen. Tim Kaine (D).

Cao faces eight announced opponents in the Republican primary but will likely be favored to win the party nomination. He will be a clear underdog against Sen. Kaine, but Cao will give the Republicans a credible nominee and potentially a candidate who can forge bridges into the state’s substantial Asian community. The demographic now accounts for 8.2 percent of the statewide population, but almost 16 percent in the Northern Virginia region, where Republicans don’t fare well.

House

CA-34: Rep. Gomez Rival Returns for Third Race — Largely because there is no inter-party political drama in California’s 34th Congressional District located wholly within Los Angeles County that contains a large portion of downtown LA, the two close races between Rep. Jimmy Gomez (D-Los Angeles) and former prosecutor David Kim (D) have generated little publicity. In 2020, Rep. Gomez defeated Kim, 53-47 percent in the first of their two double-Democratic general elections. In 2022, the congressman’s margin dropped to 51-49 percent. On Friday, Kim announced that he will return for a third run.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates CA-34 as D+63, and President Joe Biden defeated former President Donald Trump here, 81-17 percent. The district is almost 88 percent minority. The Hispanic segment accounts for 61.6 percent of the population, while Asians comprise 20.4 percent. Expect this race to again be close and Kim must be considered a significant challenger candidate.

New Mexico: State Supreme Court Allows Republican Lawsuit to Proceed — The New Mexico Supreme Court ruled unanimously at the end of last week that the Republicans’ political gerrymandering lawsuit can move forward against the state. Reflecting upon the US Supreme Court’s recent ruling on the North Carolina judicial role in redistricting, the state high court is in much stronger position to review the 2021 congressional and state legislative maps as political gerrymanders. For example, the congressional plan eliminated the state’s lone Republican seat in the current draw.

Whether the map will be invalidated is yet to be determined, but the high court agreed that the case has merit to continue.

PA-7: New Challenger Emerging — In the past two elections in the Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton 7th District of Pennsylvania, Rep. Susan Wild (D-Allentown) has won two 51-49 percent victories over former Lehigh County Commissioner and businesswoman Lisa Scheller (R). On Friday, a new candidate, Pennsylvania Convention Center director and DeSales University trustee Maria Montero (R), filed a congressional campaign committee with the Federal Election Commission.

While Scheller is not expected to return for a third run, Montero is likely to have Republican primary competition. Technology firm owner and 2022 congressional candidate Kevin Dellicker, who held Scheller to only a 51-49 percent GOP primary victory, is expected to again surface as a candidate. State Rep. Ryan MacKenzie (R-Macungie) is another potential participant.

The 7th District general election should again be highly competitive. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+4, but Dave’s Redistricting App calculates the partisan lean in the Democrats’ favor, 50.4D – 47.4R.

UT-2: Two File Special Election Petition Signatures — After the Utah 2nd District Republican endorsing convention chose congressional legal counsel Celeste Maloy to replace her boss, Rep. Chris Stewart (R-Farmington), most contenders from the large field ended their Sept. 5 special primary election campaigns.

Two, however, are moving forward. Former state Rep. Becky Edwards and ex-Republican National Committeeman Bruce Hough were the only two who submitted petition signatures in an attempt to qualify for the special primary ballot. It remains to be seen if there are 7,000 valid 2nd District registered voter signatures from each of their submissions.

Assuming the pair qualifies, the three candidates will comprise the primary election field. The winner will advance to a Nov. 21 election against the unopposed Democratic candidate, state Sen. Kathleen Riebe (D-Cottonwood Heights), and any Independent or third party contender who can also qualify for the ballot. Rep. Stewart has announced he will leave office on Sept. 15.

Trump, Biden Ahead by Wide Margins in New Poll; Navy SEAL Declares in Montana; Redistricting News from Alabama, North Carolina

New Hampshire GOP presidential poll results / WMUR TV graphic

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, June 29, 2023

President

New Hampshire Poll: St. Anselm College Releases Regular Poll — The New Hampshire Institute of Politics of St. Anselm College published their latest regular survey of Granite State voters (June 21-23; 1,065 registered New Hampshire voters; live interview) and sees former President Donald Trump gaining strength in the Republican primary while principal challenger Gov. Ron DeSantis is losing support. The partisan primary numbers find Trump leading Florida Gov. DeSantis, 47-19 percent with no other candidate exceeding six percent support.

On the Democratic side, President Joe Biden dominates Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and author Marianne Williamson, 69-9-8 percent. These numbers exceed how the president is performing nationally. Since the state is unlikely to agree to moving their primary to comply with the new Democratic National Committee calendar, these numbers suggest that Biden could win a write-in campaign against his two intra-party challengers even if he doesn’t enter the official Democratic primary.

In hypothetical general election pairings, President Biden would lead both former President Trump and Gov. DeSantis with the same 49-40 percent spread. This data suggests there is less chance that New Hampshire will become a major general election Republican conversion target.

Senate

Montana: Retired Navy SEAL Declares Candidacy with NRSC Endorsement — Retired Navy SEAL and aerospace company CEO Tim Sheehy (R) announced his US Senate candidacy Tuesday. Immediately, the National Republican Senatorial Committee, with its chairman being Montana’s junior Sen. Steve Daines, endorsed Sheehy’s candidacy. The Montana Senate race is expected to be one of the hottest campaigns in the country as Republicans attempt to deny incumbent Sen. Jon Tester (D) a fourth term.

Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Glendive), who is also expected to join the race, responded with a Tweet saying, “congratulations to Mitch McConnell and the party bosses on getting their chosen candidate. Now Washington has two candidates – Tim Sheehy and Jon Tester – who will protect the DC cartel.” Early polling shows Rep. Rosendale beginning the race with a substantial lead, so we can expect both a hot general election campaign, and an equally tough Republican nomination contest next year in Big Sky Country.

House

Alabama: Governor Calls Special Redistricting Session — To comply with the US Supreme Court ruling on the Alabama racial gerrymandering case that went against the state, Gov. Kay Ivey (R) said that she will call a special redistricting session for the purposes of drawing a new map to comply with the decision. The legislature will report on July 17 to begin the process.

Since Alabama is a Super Tuesday state and is holding its regular primary on March 5, time is short to draw a new map and obtain the necessary judicial approvals. The ruling and new map is expected to give the Democrats an extra seat in the Alabama US House delegation that currently stands at 6R-1D.

SCOTUS: North Carolina Case Ruling — In an unsurprising 6-3 ruling, the US Supreme Court ruled against the state of North Carolina on the subject of redistricting. Legal analyst Derek Muller of the Election Law Blog describes the crux of the state’s argument as saying, “the state constitution or state judiciary cannot constrain the state legislature exercising power under the Elections Clause.” Predictably, the justices ruled that the judiciary does have the authority to involve itself in redistricting decisions but underscored that the Supreme Court has the power to restrain lower courts from taking too much power away from the legislative bodies.

Largely because the North Carolina state Supreme Court has already reconsidered its previous partisan gerrymandering decision, the high court confined itself to the judicial power question.

Polls Show Republican Presidential Race Getting Tighter; A Twist in Wisconsin; SCOTUS Rules on Alabama Redistricting; Special Election in UT-2

By Jim Ellis — Monday, June 12, 2023

President

Former President Donald Trump still up, but down in polling.

State Polls: Republican Race Getting Tighter — Two very recent Republican presidential state polls were released late last week, one from Wisconsin and the other in Utah. While the Wisconsin spread is typical of what we are seeing in other places, the Utah poll has closed to within one percentage point.

Public Policy Polling (June 5-6; 507 likely Wisconsin voters) sees former President Donald Trump leading the Wisconsin GOP primary but with well less than majority support. The ballot test gives the former president a 41-25 percent lead over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. Ex-Vice President Mike Pence is next with eight percent support, and no one else breaks five percent. In an isolation question featuring Trump and DeSantis, the former pPresident leads this only 43-39 percent.

The Utah numbers are much closer. In this Dan Jones & Associates poll for the Utah Republican Party (May 22-June 1; 421 registered Utah Republican voters), Trump’s advantage is only 27-26 percent over Gov. DeSantis.

Former Rep. Liz Cheney, not even a candidate, places third with seven percent, and no other candidate breaks the five percent mark. However, this poll’s long sampling period and small respondent universe, along with the introduction of Cheney into the mix, casts an accuracy shadow over this poll.

Senate

Wisconsin: Polling Leader Emerges; Not the GOP’s Top Choice — The Wisconsin Public Policy Polling survey (see President section above) also tested the state’s US Senate race featuring two-term incumbent Tammy Baldwin (D).

The Republican primary ballot test suggests that former Milwaukee County Sheriff David Clarke would lead a prospective group of GOP candidates with 40 percent preference. Placing second is Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-Green Bay) with 20 percent, followed by Rep. Tom Tiffany (R-Minocqua) at 10 percent. Clarke is not an official candidate, and viewed as someone who would be unlikely to win the general election. So far, Rep. Gallagher has not made a discernible move to enter the Senate race. Rep. Tiffany is testing the waters.

The Wisconsin race could become competitive, but Sen. Baldwin would begin any general election as the favorite to win in November.

House

Redistricting: SCOTUS Rules on Alabama — The US Supreme Court, on a 5-4 decision with Chief Justice John Roberts and Associate Justice Brett Kavanaugh joining the majority, ruled in favor of the plaintiffs in the Alabama racial gerrymandering case. Therefore, the Alabama map will be redrawn to reflect a second minority district from the state’s seven seats. Louisiana will likely have to be redrawn as well.

Possible redraws could occur in several other southern states. The ruling is clearly a win for the Democrats and gives them even better odds of re-capturing the House majority in the 2024 election.

UT-2: Special Election Set — Since Utah Rep. Chris Stewart (R-Farmington) submitted an irrevocable letter of resignation for Sept. 15 to Gov. Spencer Cox (R), that action has allowed the state’s chief executive to set at least the special primary election even before the congressman officially leaves office.

Under Utah law, the governor must schedule the special congressional election concurrent with another election. The municipal elections were scheduled for Aug. 15 and Nov. 7, but Gov. Cox is preparing to send the legislature a measure to change those dates to Sept. 5 and Nov. 21 and add the special congressional election to that ballot. These dates meet the federal electoral notice requirements.

The legislature is expected to comply. If they do not, the 2nd District seat could remain vacant for more than a year awaiting the regular primary schedule.

In this instance, the seat will be filled while Rep. Stewart remains in office, which is similar to the Oklahoma law that allows a resigning elected official to serve until a replacement is selected.