Category Archives: Presidential campaign

The New Mexico Factor

By Jim Ellis — Monday, August 5, 2024

President

Former President Donald Trump / Photo by Gage Skidmore

The Land of Enchantment, as the state of New Mexico is known, does not attract a great deal of attention in a national presidential campaign, but 2024 may prove different.

Looking at the presidential map, it previously was a foregone conclusion that to win the national election, former President Donald Trump would have to covert one of the key Great Lakes States, either Michigan, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin. Now that the Trump campaign has apparently expanded the map, such may not be the case.

To win, Trump needs to convert states that Joe Biden carried in 2020 with a minimum cumulative total of 35 electoral votes. For presumed Democratic nominee Kamala Harris to win, she would only need to keep 90 percent of Joe Biden’s electoral vote total.

Looking at the polling since the beginning of 2024, Trump has been consistently ahead in the swing states of Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada. Each voted for President Biden with small margins and now all three appear headed toward Trump.

New Arizona polling confirms that, at least in the early going, Trump would perform as well against Harris as he did against President Biden. The latest Public Policy Polling survey (for the Clean and Prosperous America PAC; July 19-20; 736 registered Arizona voters; live interview & text) sees Trump holding a 46-40 percent lead over Vice President Harris with Harris carrying a poor favorability index of 38:55 percent positive to negative. For his part, Trump posts an improved 47:49 percent ratio.

In Nevada, Trump recorded a 10-point spread over VP Harris according to the latest Insider Advantage survey (July 15-16; 800 registered Nevada voters; Trump 50; Harris 40 percent). The Georgia numbers are also trending toward Trump. The University of Georgia (for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution; July 9-18; 1,000 registered Georgia voters; live interview) found the former president holding a five-point lead over Harris, 51-46 percent.

Should these patterns continue, and Trump converts the three states, he would gain 33 electoral votes, or just two short of the minimum 270 needed to secure election. Doing so would then mean he would need only one other state to clinch victory.

Capturing New Mexico, with its five electoral votes, would allow Trump to win the national election even if Vice President Harris is successful in keeping Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin in the Democratic column. Therefore, the ability to expand the map could fundamentally change the outcome.

Several points suggest New Mexico will become a major Trump target. First, the polling is now showing a much closer race than expected. In 2020, President Biden defeated Trump here, 54-43 percent, and the state was never seriously in play for the then-incumbent president.

This year, however, the numbers appear different. The most recent study was conducted in June from the 1892 Polling firm (June 19-24; 600 likely New Mexico voters). The results found Trump trailing President Biden by a scant one percentage point in the multi-candidate field. In the Senate contest, Republican Nella Domenici, the daughter of the late Sen. Pete Domenici (R-NM), trailed Sen. Martin Heinrich (D) by only a 46-42 percent margin.

Secondly, New Mexico is a plurality Hispanic state (Voting Age Population figures: 44.3 percent Hispanic; 40.5 percent White; 11.5 percent Native American; 2.8 percent Black; 2.5 percent Asian), and Republicans are faring better within the community than in past elections. A significant Trump improvement among New Mexico Hispanics could provide enough of a margin to boost him over the top.

Third, the state having only three congressional districts and a total population of just over 2.1 million individuals means campaigning here is inexpensive. This is especially true considering almost the entire domain is virtually self-contained within the Albuquerque and El Paso media markets. Therefore, targeting the state would not require large expenditures but the return on such an investment could be major.

Furthermore, developing voter coalitions would be relatively easy because 63 percent of the population lives in just five counties, and basically one-third of New Mexicans live in the Albuquerque metropolitan area.

With an expanding map, the campaign will spread to many more places. Expect a major Trump effort targeted for the Land of Enchantment with potentially a big payoff.

Tennessee Primary Results; DNC Presidential Nomination Vote Begins; New Candidate in FL-2; New Hampshire Governor’s Race Polling

By Jim Ellis — Friday, August 2, 2024

States

Tennessee Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Tennessee: Primary Results — Volunteer State voters went to the polls yesterday and performed as one would have expected. Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R) scored a 90 percent victory over her minor Republican opponent and swept all 95 of the state’s counties. Heading into the November election, Sen. Blackburn is a prohibitive favorite for re-election.

Four Democrats were vying for their party nomination, and state Rep. Gloria Johnson (D-Nashville) easily won the primary contest with 70 percent of the partisan vote. Johnson is one of the House members who participated in a state capitol rally for gun control that resulted in two other members being expelled from the legislature.

The most competitive race on the ballot comes in the Nashville anchored 5th Congressional District where Davidson County Metro Councilwoman Courtney Johnston (R) challenged freshman US Rep. Andy Ogles (R-Columbia) but fell considerably short of victory. Slightly out-fundraising the congressman and having double the outside financial support (approximately $700,000 to $350,000), Rep. Ogles was able to prevail with a 56-44 percent vote spread.

Ogles recorded big margins in the outlying rural counties, and held his own in Davidson County, which contains the city of Nashville. Clearly, the charges of him falsifying his background and not paying property taxes when he was a local government official had little bearing on the race. In a 5th District that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+15, Rep. Ogles now becomes a prohibitive favorite against Democratic economic development consultant Maryam Abolfazli.

In other races, both Reps. Scott DesJarlais (R-Sherwood) and Steve Cohen (D-Memphis) broke the 70 percent figure with easy wins over minor opponents.

President

DNC: Presidential Nomination Vote Begins — As expected, the Democratic National Committee, in advance of convening their national convention in Chicago beginning Aug. 19, are today beginning their official virtual roll call to nominate Vice President Kamala Harris to replace President Joe Biden as the party’s national nominee. The delegate vote is expected to consume several days, but Harris will likely officially become the party standard bearer early next week.

House

FL-2: Dems Choose New Nominee — After long-shot Democratic congressional candidate Meghann Hovey dropped her bid to challenge Rep. Neal Dunn (R-Panama City), the local Democratic committees agreed to put forward the name of attorney Yen Bailey as the party’s replacement candidate. The Florida primary is not until Aug. 20, but because Hovey notified the election authorities of her decision to leave the race when she did, the local party apparatus had a chance to add another name to the primary ballot.

North Florida’s 2nd District is safely Republican. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+16. Former President Donald Trump carried the seat four years ago with a whopping 67-32 percent victory margin. In 2022, Rep. Dunn defeated fellow Congressman Al Lawson (D) by a 60-40 percent margin after the two members were placed in the same district post-redistricting. The 2nd District contains all or part of 16 counties stretching from Panama City and through the Apalachicola, Tallahassee, and Perry communities within the Florida panhandle. Rep. Dunn is a sure bet for re-election in November.

Governor

New Hampshire: Ayotte, Craig Lead R and D Primary Voting — Emerson College tested the New Hampshire electorate in anticipation of the state’s late Sept. 10 primary election. The poll results (July 26-28; 1,000 registered New Hampshire voters; 433 likely New Hampshire Democratic primary voters; 421 likely New Hampshire Republican primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) found former US Sen. Kelly Ayotte leading ex-state Senate President Chuck Morse, 41-26 percent for the open Republican gubernatorial nomination.

On the Democratic side, former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig has a 33-21 percent advantage over Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington. The two primary winners will square off in November to succeed retiring Gov. Chris Sununu (R).

Harris Reportedly Narrowing VP Pick; Omar Has Huge Lead in MN-5; GOP Voter Registration Jump in Arizona

Click on image above or here to go to: Bloomberg News story.

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, July 30, 2024

President

Vice President Harris: Reportedly Narrowing VP Pick — Bloomberg News is reporting that presumptive presidential nominee Kamala Harris has narrowed her selection for the 2nd slot on the national Democratic ticket to three individuals (see above): Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ), Gov. Josh Shapiro (PA) and Gov. Tim Walz (MN). If the report is valid, it means that Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and governors J.B. Pritzker (IL), Andy Beshear (KY), and Roy Cooper (NC) have been eliminated from consideration.

House

MN-5: Rep. Omar’s Huge Lead — It has been a bit surprising that the American Israel Public Affairs Committee’s (AIPAC) Super PAC affiliate, the United Democracy Project, which has spent millions of dollars targeting anti-Israel Reps. Jamaal Bowman (D-NY) and Cori Bush (D-MO), has spent nothing against one of their most vociferous congressional adversaries, Minnesota Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minneapolis).

A new poll suggests why there has been so little outside involvement against Rep. Omar or for her top Democratic primary opponent, former Minneapolis City Councilman Don Samuels. This looked like a competitive challenge at the outset considering that Samuels held Rep. Omar to a 50-48 percent renomination victory margin in 2022, but the current data suggests otherwise.

According to Rep. Omar’s internal poll from Lake Research Partners (July 17-21; 400 likely MN-5 Democratic primary voters; live interview) the ballot test projects the congresswoman to be holding a 60-33 percent lead over Samuels. The fact that the incumbent’s lead is so large dissuades opposition involvement since the die appears already cast for the Aug. 13 primary election.

States

Arizona: Latest Registration Figures Reveal GOP Jump — Arizona Republicans have consistently out-registered Democrats over the years, but the latest released pre-primary figures find the GOP posting its strongest margin of the last three election cycles. Arizona also features a large Independent and minor parties’ registration category. It is this latter group that now makes the state so politically close.

According to the Secretary of State’s report, Republicans now claim 35.4 percent of the Arizona registered voters, which is 6.3 points higher than the Democrats’ 29.1 percent figure. The Independent/Other category has the second highest contingent, at 33.9 percent. The R to D split is almost three full percentage points higher when compared to the 2020 election when President Joe Biden scratched out a tight 49.4 – 49.1 percent victory over then-President Donald Trump.

The new registration data gives credence to the Real Clear Politics calculated 6.4 percent average that former President Trump holds over Vice President Harris. The figure is derived from the three cumulative July Grand Canyon State surveys. Arizona continues as one of the most important swing domains in this election cycle.

Virtual Tie Between Trump, Harris; Movement in Texas to Fill Jackson Lee’s Seat; Six Dems Criticize VP Harris’s Role in Securing Border

By Jim Ellis — Friday, July 26, 2024

President

National Polls: A Virtual Tie — From July 21-24, eight political pollsters conducted national ballot tests of former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. The surveys produced mixed results. All were conducted online and came from Activote, YouGov, Ipsos, RMG Research, Big Village, Change Research, Morning Consult, and the New York Times/Siena College. The range was from Harris, plus-four to Trump, plus-3. Of the nine polls (YouGov ran two), Trump was ahead in five and Harris four.

New Hampshire: First Polls Favor Harris — While polling was showing former President Trump pulling just ahead of President Biden in New Hampshire before the latter man left the race, two new surveys see a reversal back toward the Democratic nominee in identical margins.

St. Anselm’s College and the University of New Hampshire, both regular Granite State pollsters, went into the field to test Trump against presumptive Democratic nominee Kamala Harris. St. Anselm’s (July 24-25; 2,083 registered New Hampshire voters; online) sees Harris leading Trump, 50-44 percent. UNH (July 23-25; 2,875 registered New Hampshire voters; online) found a similar 49-43 percent spread. Both detected the six-point margin.

Trump did not run well in New Hampshire in the last election, losing to President Biden, 53-45 percent. Therefore, continued polling results such as seen in these two flash polls may suggest the Trump campaign will move to more fertile territory.

House

TX-18: Potential Candidates Begin Making Moves — The death of veteran Texas US Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Houston) means the Harris County Democratic Party will choose a replacement on the November ballot for her. The Committee members must make their selection before Aug. 26, but the leadership indicates the body will act well before the deadline.

Potential Democratic candidates include former Houston mayor and ex-state Representative Sylvester Turner, at-large Houston City Councilwoman Letitia Plummer, and former US Senate and congressional candidate Amanda Edwards. The 18th District, fully contained within Harris County, is heavily Democratic. Therefore, whomever the party members choose will assuredly win the seat in November. Thus, this small group of activists will have the power to designate the area’s next member of Congress.

House Democrats: Vulnerable Members Break Ranks — Six Democrats broke party ranks to support a Republican resolution criticizing Vice President Harris’ role in securing the border. Not surprisingly, the six are all in competitive House districts, and among the most vulnerable Democratic incumbents seeking re-election. They are: Reps. Yadira Caraveo (D-CO-8), Henry Cuellar (D-TX-28), Don Davis (D-NC-1), Jared Golden (D-ME-2), Mary Peltola (D-AK-AL), and Marie Glusenkamp Perez (D-WA-3).

DNC Schedules Virtual Vote; Harris Bump Predicted; Candidate Pattern Continues in Pennsylvania; A Cliff-Hanger in New Mexico

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, June 25, 2024

President

Vice President Kamala Harris / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Democratic National Committee: Virtual Vote Scheduled — Following through on predictions that the Democrats would nominate Vice President Kamala Harris as quickly as possible, DNC chairman Jaime Harrison announced that in fact the committee will schedule a virtual roll call vote in advance of the Democratic National Convention.

The voting period will occur over multiple days culminating with an Aug. 7 deadline — or 12 days before the Democratic National Convention officially convenes in Chicago. At this point, it appears that Harris will easily secure the first ballot nomination and end speculation of another potential candidate arriving to claim support from a delegate majority.

The early vote allows the Democratic leadership to avoid an open convention that could bring chaos, gives the Harris campaign an additional two weeks of general election campaigning, and allows them to make the convention a unifying event.

Trump Pollster: Predicting a Harris Bump — Trump for President pollster Tony Fabrizio yesterday issued a public letter predicting that Vice President Harris will see a bump in national polling because of her “honeymoon” with the institutional media and Democratic rank and file. He also predicted the polling would eventually return to the earlier pattern that posted former President Donald Trump to consistent small leads.

In the past two days, we have seen three national polls released, which include the Independent and minor party candidates:

RMG Research (July 22-23; 2,000 registered US voters; online) sees Trump holding a two point, 48-46 percent, edge over Harris.
Ipsos/Reuters, polling over the same period (July 22-23; 1,018 registered US voters; online) finds a different result, posting Harris over Trump with a four-point, 42-38 percent spread.
YouGov polling for The Economist publication (July 21-23; 1,435 registered US voters; online) sees a tally closer to RMG: Trump leading Harris, 44-41 percent.

We can expect to see close but inconsistent polling from now until the latter stages of the election. It is likely Fabrizio is correct about a forthcoming Harris bump, but things will start to stabilize once early voting begins in earnest come mid-October.

Senate

Pennsylvania: Pattern Continues — A new Pennsylvania poll again finds a pattern that is troubling for Republicans. While Donald Trump leads in the presidential contest, the Republican Senate candidate lags far behind the Democratic incumbent.

North Star Opinion Research, polling for the American Greatness Super PAC (July 20-23; 600 likely Pennsylvania voters; live interview) tested the Pennsylvania electorate. While some of the respondents were interviewed before President Joe Biden announced his decision to withdraw from his re-election bid, we still see the sample members favoring former President Trump over Vice President Harris by a 47-45 percent margin. Conversely, in the Senate election, Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D) enjoys a 49-41 percent spread over Republican David McCormick.

The combined totals suggest a net 10-point swing between Trump’s standing in the national campaign and that of McCormick in the Senate race. Unless Republicans can find a better way of tying their Senate candidates’ support to that of Trump, the party’s goal of reaching 53 or 54 Senate seats in the next Congress will not come to fruition.

House

NM-2: Another Cliff-Hanger — After New Mexico’s southern 2nd Congressional District was converted into a Democratic seat in the 2021 redistricting map from one that favored Republicans, then-Rep. Yvette Herrell (R) lost her seat in 2022 to then-Las Cruces City Councilman Gabe Vasquez (D) by a scant 50.3 – 49.7 percent margin.

A new poll suggests we will likely see a similarly close result in 2024. The Tarrance Group, polling for the Herrell campaign (July 11-14; 400 likely NM-2 voters; live interview) finds the former congresswoman clutching to a 48-46 percent edge over Rep. Vasquez. At this point, it is unclear which candidate will win the seat, but every available data point is again suggesting that this race will be extremely tight.

Trump Campaign Files FEC Complaint Against Harris; Gallego Expands Lead in Arizona; Senate Race Tightens in Nevada; Menendez Says He’s Out

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, July 24, 2024

President

Trump Campaign: Files FEC Complaint Against Harris — Former President Donald Trump’s campaign has filed a complaint with the Federal Election Commission arguing that Vice President Kamala Harris’s new campaign committee is not entitled to a direct transfer of the some $95-plus million that President Joe Biden held in his campaign account. Many believe that because she was on the presidential ticket her campaign committee would have access to the funds.

The Trump lawyers point out, however, that the official name of the presidential committee is simply, “Joe Biden for President.” The committee name has been changed to “Harris for President,” which the Trump operation claims is premature and an infraction of campaign finance law. Should the complaint before the commission end in a three to three tie, with the three Republicans voting to affirm the complaint and the three Democrats against, the Trump campaign could then take the measure to court.

Senate

Arizona: Gallego Expands Lead — Countering the last three July polls that found the Arizona Senate race tightening to within the polling margin of error, Public Policy Polling released new data (for the Clean and Prosperous America PAC; July 19-20; 736 registered Arizona voters; live interview & text) that posts US Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) to a seven-point advantage, 49-42 percent, over former news anchor and 2022 Republican gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake.

In the presidential race, former President Trump leads Vice President Harris, 46-40 percent, again finding the familiar pattern of the Republican Senate nominee dropping behind the GOP ticket leader. In terms of approval rating, Trump scored a 47:49 percent favorability index. This compares well opposite Harris’ poor 38:55 percent positive to negative ratio.

Nevada: Race Tightens — British pollster Redfield & Wilton Strategies (polling for The Telegraph publication; July 16-18; 412 likely Nevada voters; part of a 5,005 sampling universe covering Nevada and seven other states) tested the Nevada Senate race and sees a tighter result than most recent polls. The ballot test found Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) leading Afghan War veteran Sam Brown (R), 41-37 percent. Recently, after a barrage of Rosen advertising, the senator had been posting leads as high as eight and 12 points.

New Jersey: Sen. Menendez to Officially Resign — After indicating that he would resign from the Senate after being found guilty of bribery but not providing any specifics, Sen. Bob Menendez (D) announced yesterday that he will leave the Senate on Aug. 20. Gov. Phil Murphy (D) immediately indicated that he will appoint a replacement for the outgoing senator to serve the balance of the term. It is unlikely that he will appoint Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown), who won the Democratic nomination after Menendez decided not to seek renomination and Gov. Murphy’s wife, Tammy Murphy, withdrew from the Senate race.

Sen. Menendez then filed as an Independent for the Senate, but that was a move largely to qualify to legally spend his campaign money on legal fees. As a non-candidate, he could not have used the funds for such an expenditure. It is now likely he will also withdraw his Independent candidacy. Rep. Kim is favored to defeat Republican businessman Curtis Bashaw in the November general election.

Harris: A Tough Road Ahead

Vice President Kamala Harris: a tough path to winning in November. (Photo by Gage Skidmore)

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, July 23, 2024

President

While Vice President Kamala Harris is well positioned to replace President Joe Biden as the 2024 Democratic presidential nominee, her task of winning the general election is anything but easy. New polls in the key swing states start her in an underdog position in virtually every key place that will determine the final outcome.

As we know, there are six states considered prime swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Before Biden announced his exit, another half-dozen surprising domains were showing competitive signs: Maine, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, and Virginia. This means that former President Donald Trump was either leading in the most recent state survey or within a point or two of moving ahead. It remains to be seen if any of these second-tier swing states truly become competitive in a Trump-Harris race.

July polling in eight of these states illustrates the Harris difficulty factor in overcoming Trump’s current advantage. None of the states are out of play, since the Trump leads are all in single digits, but the fact that she would have to simultaneously hold nine of 12 domains increases the difficulty factor.

Vice President Harris’ biggest problem is that three of the states, Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada, appear locked for Trump. We have seen 26 publicly released polls from Arizona since January 1, and Trump leads in all. The Public Policy Polling organization conducted a Grand Canyon State survey during the July 19-20 period (736 registered Arizona voters), and Trump holds a six-point, 46-40 percent, advantage against Harris.

In Georgia, 24 Trump-Biden polls were conducted in 2024, and as in Arizona, Trump leads all. Two Trump-Harris polls have been conducted in July. The University of Georgia for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution newspaper (July 9-18; 1,000 likely Georgia voters) finds Trump holding a five-point edge over VP Harris. Insider Advantage (July 15-16; 800 likely Georgia voters) projects an even larger 10-point lead.

Nevada is turning in similar numbers. In 2024, a total of 22 Trump-Biden polls have been released, and Trump led in 21 with one tie. Insider Advantage conducted the most recent Trump-Harris poll (July 15-16; 800 likely Nevada voters) and Trump holds a 10-point, 50-40 percent, margin over the vice president.

These three states are significant because the data suggests that they are solid for Trump. Should he carry through and win them all, the former president would add 33 electoral votes to his 2020 national total, meaning he would be literally just one state away from winning the national election.

This is what makes Harris’s path difficult. Her margin of error if conceding Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada is just one state.

Therefore, looking at the remaining top-tier swings of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, Harris would have to sweep them.

Today, she trails Trump in Michigan by five percentage points according to Democratic pollster Public Policy Polling (July 17-18; 650 registered Michigan voters)

The latest Pennsylvania numbers tell a similar tale. SoCal Research (July 20-21; 500 likely Pennsylvania voters) yields Trump a 50-46 percent edge over Harris.

In Wisconsin, Harris fares a bit better, but still could easily lose. The Civiqs research organization, polling for Daily Kos Elections (July 13-16; 514 registered Wisconsin voters), sees Trump and Harris deadlocked at 48 percent apiece.

There is some current data appearing from the second tier, though no July polling has been released for Maine, Minnesota, New Jersey, and New Mexico.

In New Hampshire, a state the former president twice lost to Hillary Clinton and President Biden, a group called Praecones Analytica just tested the electorate (July 19-21; 601 registered New Hampshire voters) and shows Trump holding a one-point, 40-39 percent, edge over VP Harris.

Finally, Florida Atlantic University tested the Virginia electorate with a released small sample survey (July 14-15; 301 registered Virginia voters) and projects Trump with a 41-40 percent lead over Harris.

As you can see, the point deficit in any of the nine first- and second-tier swing and potentially competitive states is not insurmountable in any instance. The vice president’s problem is that she must win all of these swing states, assuming Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada continue their year-long trend of favoring former President Trump. Therefore, of the remaining targets, Vice President Harris must run the table if she is to claim the White House since her margin of error is virtually depleted.