Tag Archives: Rep. Andy Ogles

Blackburn Wins, Rep. Ogles Loses in Tennessee; Hawaii Primary Tomorrow

By Jim Ellis — Friday, August 7, 2026

Tennessee

Tennessee Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

[/caption]Sen. Marsha Blackburn’s victory margin was narrower than early projections when she entered the Governor’s race, but she still secured a double‑digit win and the Republican nomination, effectively guaranteeing her path to the Governor’s Mansion in November.

Sen. Blackburn finished with a 43-33-24 percent victory margin over Rep. John Rose (R‑Cookeville) and state Rep. Monty Fritts (R‑Kingston). Both Rose and Fritts began with single‑digit support but steadily improved throughout the long primary cycle.

Blackburn performed strongly statewide, particularly in her western Tennessee base, while Rep. Rose dominated in his home congressional district. Rep. Fritts carried five counties and posted a credible finish.

Because Tennessee is not a runoff state, Blackburn won the gubernatorial nomination with a plurality. She will face Memphis City Councilwoman Jerri Green in the general election, who came close to the 70 percent mark in the Democratic primary.

A presumed Blackburn victory in November would give her the opportunity of appointing her own successor in the US Senate. Speculation will now intensify over whom she might choose in January. Assuming the appointee seeks election, a special vote would occur concurrently with the 2028 regular election. The Blackburn seat is next in-cycle for a six-year term in 2030.

Sen. Bill Hagerty (R) was unopposed for renomination and enters the general election as a prohibitive favorite against Democratic nominee Marquita Bradshaw, who previously ran for the Senate in 2020 and 2024.

The major development in the House delegation came in the 5th District, where Rep. Andy Ogles (R‑Columbia) lost his renomination bid to former state Agriculture Commissioner Charlie Hatcher.

The newly drawn 5th District, now stretching to Arkansas and including downtown Memphis, is dramatically different from the central Tennessee-anchored district Ogles first won in 2022. Under the new district boundaries, Hatcher’s 53-47 percent victory positions him as a strong favorite over Columbia Mayor Chaz Molder, the Democratic nominee.

Rep. Ogles becomes the ninth House incumbent to lose renomination in 2026 and the third Republican. Michigan Democratic Rep. Shri Thanedar (D‑Detroit) also lost his primary on Tuesday night.

In Rep. Rose’s open and safely Republican 6th District, state Rep. Johnny Garrett (R‑Goodlettsville) defeated former Rep. Van Hilleary and Iraq/Afghanistan War veteran Jon Henry. Hilleary, attempting a comeback after two decades off the ballot (he served four House terms and was the GOP nominee for Governor in 2002 and for the Senate in 2006) finished second, 12 points behind Garrett.

In the newly created 9th District, state Sen. Brent Taylor (R‑Eads), backed with endorsements from President Trump and Sens. Blackburn and Hagerty, won the Republican nomination over state Rep. Todd Warner (R-Chapel Hill) and two additional candidates. Sen. Taylor will be a heavy favorite against the new Democratic nominee, state Rep. Justin Pearson (D‑Memphis), a prominent gun‑control advocate.

Hawaii

Hawaii is the next state to hold its nomination election in what is a busy primary week. The most notable contest tomorrow is in the 1st Congressional District, where veteran Rep. Ed Case (D‑Kaneohe) faces a relatively competitive Democratic primary against state Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole (D‑Honolulu).

A Blueprint Polling survey conducted for the Keohokalole campaign (released Aug. 6, taken July 7-8; 481 likely HI‑1 Democratic primary voters) shows the Congressman leading 33-25 percent, with three minor Democratic candidates also on the ballot.

The crowded field gives Rep. Case an additional advantage under Hawaii’s plurality primary system. He is again expected to win renomination and then re‑election in November, which would secure him a seventh non‑consecutive US House term.

Tennessee Primary Results; DNC Presidential Nomination Vote Begins; New Candidate in FL-2; New Hampshire Governor’s Race Polling

By Jim Ellis — Friday, August 2, 2024

States

Tennessee Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Tennessee: Primary Results — Volunteer State voters went to the polls yesterday and performed as one would have expected. Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R) scored a 90 percent victory over her minor Republican opponent and swept all 95 of the state’s counties. Heading into the November election, Sen. Blackburn is a prohibitive favorite for re-election.

Four Democrats were vying for their party nomination, and state Rep. Gloria Johnson (D-Nashville) easily won the primary contest with 70 percent of the partisan vote. Johnson is one of the House members who participated in a state capitol rally for gun control that resulted in two other members being expelled from the legislature.

The most competitive race on the ballot comes in the Nashville anchored 5th Congressional District where Davidson County Metro Councilwoman Courtney Johnston (R) challenged freshman US Rep. Andy Ogles (R-Columbia) but fell considerably short of victory. Slightly out-fundraising the congressman and having double the outside financial support (approximately $700,000 to $350,000), Rep. Ogles was able to prevail with a 56-44 percent vote spread.

Ogles recorded big margins in the outlying rural counties, and held his own in Davidson County, which contains the city of Nashville. Clearly, the charges of him falsifying his background and not paying property taxes when he was a local government official had little bearing on the race. In a 5th District that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+15, Rep. Ogles now becomes a prohibitive favorite against Democratic economic development consultant Maryam Abolfazli.

In other races, both Reps. Scott DesJarlais (R-Sherwood) and Steve Cohen (D-Memphis) broke the 70 percent figure with easy wins over minor opponents.

President

DNC: Presidential Nomination Vote Begins — As expected, the Democratic National Committee, in advance of convening their national convention in Chicago beginning Aug. 19, are today beginning their official virtual roll call to nominate Vice President Kamala Harris to replace President Joe Biden as the party’s national nominee. The delegate vote is expected to consume several days, but Harris will likely officially become the party standard bearer early next week.

House

FL-2: Dems Choose New Nominee — After long-shot Democratic congressional candidate Meghann Hovey dropped her bid to challenge Rep. Neal Dunn (R-Panama City), the local Democratic committees agreed to put forward the name of attorney Yen Bailey as the party’s replacement candidate. The Florida primary is not until Aug. 20, but because Hovey notified the election authorities of her decision to leave the race when she did, the local party apparatus had a chance to add another name to the primary ballot.

North Florida’s 2nd District is safely Republican. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+16. Former President Donald Trump carried the seat four years ago with a whopping 67-32 percent victory margin. In 2022, Rep. Dunn defeated fellow Congressman Al Lawson (D) by a 60-40 percent margin after the two members were placed in the same district post-redistricting. The 2nd District contains all or part of 16 counties stretching from Panama City and through the Apalachicola, Tallahassee, and Perry communities within the Florida panhandle. Rep. Dunn is a sure bet for re-election in November.

Governor

New Hampshire: Ayotte, Craig Lead R and D Primary Voting — Emerson College tested the New Hampshire electorate in anticipation of the state’s late Sept. 10 primary election. The poll results (July 26-28; 1,000 registered New Hampshire voters; 433 likely New Hampshire Democratic primary voters; 421 likely New Hampshire Republican primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) found former US Sen. Kelly Ayotte leading ex-state Senate President Chuck Morse, 41-26 percent for the open Republican gubernatorial nomination.

On the Democratic side, former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig has a 33-21 percent advantage over Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington. The two primary winners will square off in November to succeed retiring Gov. Chris Sununu (R).