Category Archives: Polling

Ciattarelli Reverses Tide in NJ;
Grijalva Wins in Arizona

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Sept. 24, 2025

NJ-Governor

Leading 2021 New Jersey gubernatorial nominee Jack Ciattarelli (R)

Defying the consistent trend showing Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) leading 2021 gubernatorial nominee Jack Ciattarelli (R), a new internal National Research survey reveals a change in momentum.

According to the Ciattarelli campaign’s internal data, the National Research results (Sept. 16-18; 600 likely New Jersey general election voters) project the Republican leading with a slight 46-45 percent edge over Sherrill. Earlier in the month, National Research (Sept. 8-10; 600 likely New Jersey general election voters) saw Ciattarelli pulling to within a 47-45 percent margin of his Democratic opponent.

Other September polls, and generally all following the June primary, have posted Sherrill to high single digit leads. The two most recent prior to the latest National Research releases, from Quinnipiac University (Sept. 11-15; 1,238 likely New Jersey general election voters; live interview) and Quantus Insights (Sept. 2-4; 600 likely New Jersey general election voters) found Rep. Sherrill holding respective leads of 49-41 percent and 47-37 percent.

Organizations that track polling have recorded rather different post-primary averages for the race. The Real Clear Politics Polling Archives finds Rep. Sherrill’s cumulative lead at 8.8 percentage points, while two other stat entities see closer splits. The Race to the White House organization calculates an average 7.5 percent margin, while Decision Desk HQ projects the data result closer to what National Research is finding, giving Sherrill an average 4.2 percent edge.

It does appear that the race is getting tighter as we move toward the Nov. 4 general election. Additionally, Ciattarelli, even in this year’s Republican primary where he scored a 68 percent win, tends to under-poll by a significant margin. In the primary, cumulative research studies found him running nowhere near his final vote total.

For example, the final Emerson College pre-primary poll projected the Ciattarelli preference to be only 44 percent. Here, National Research was closer to the final result, but even their number (54 percent) fell 14 points behind the actual tally.

In the 2021 gubernatorial race where Ciattarelli was viewed as a decided underdog to Gov. Phil Murphy (D) who was seeking re-election, the aggregate polling underestimated the Republican’s strength.

According to the Real Clear Politics archives, six surveys from six different pollsters were released between Oct. 15 and the Nov. 2 election. Gov. Murphy’s average lead was 7.8 percentage points. The actual result was 51-48 percent. The Trafalgar Group, in their Oct. 29-31 survey came closest to the final tally, projecting the race at 49-45 percent in the Democratic Governor’s favor.

Over the course of the past campaign, eleven 2021 polls were released from seven different pollsters providing Gov. Murphy with an average lead of 11.5 percent. Therefore, the ‘21 polling trend may prove similar to what we are starting to see in the 2025 Sherrill-Ciattarelli contest.

It appears the stage may be set for another closer-than-expected finish in the New Jersey Governor’s campaign.

AZ-7

As expected, former Pima County Supervisor Adelita Grijalva (D) easily won last night’s US House special election in Arizona’s Tucson-anchored 7th District and will succeed her late father in Congress. Rep. Raul Grijalva (D) passed away in March.

Ms. Grijalva scored what appears to be a 68-30 percent win in a safely Democratic district before a turnout of approximately 102,000 voters. The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 65.5D – 32.3R partisan lean for AZ-7, meaning Rep-Elect Grijalva ran slightly ahead of the district’s vote benchmark.

The 7th CD houses part of Tucson and then moves south to the Mexican border before stretching west all the way to California. The district is 55 percent Hispanic and the second strongest Democratic seat in the Grand Canyon State. Kamala Harris defeated President Trump here, 60-38 percent.

When Ms. Grijalva is sworn into the House, the partisan division will change to 219R – 214D. The two remaining US House special elections are in Tennessee (7th District; Oct. 7 special primary; Dec. 2 special general) and Texas (18th District; Nov. 4 jungle election; Gov. Greg Abbott (R) schedules the special runoff between the top two finishers if no one receives majority support after the official count projects the need for a secondary election). Republicans are favored to hold in Tennessee, and Democrats in Texas.

AZ-7 Special Today;
California Shock Poll

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Sept. 23, 2025

AZ-7

Former Pima County Supervisor Adelita Grijalva after her win in the July 15 special Democratic primary. / Photo by Kelly Presnell

Voters in the Tucson, Arizona area today go to the polls to elect a replacement for the late Rep. Raul Grijalva (D) who passed away in March.

This vote is basically pro forma, as the determinative election was held in the July 15 Democratic primary. The late Congressman’s daughter, Adelita Grijalva, who had to resign her seat on the Pima County Board of Supervisors to run for Congress, easily won the party nomination.

Ms. Grijalva’s primary conquest virtually guarantees her a win tonight in a seat that carries a partisan lean of 65.5D – 32.3R (Dave’s Redistricting App calculations). She will defeat 2024 Republican congressional nominee Daniel Butierez and exceed the 60 percent vote threshold. The Green Party and No Labels Party also qualified nominees, but they will factor little in the final outcome.

The Grijalva victory will bring the US House partisan division total to 219R – 214D. The next special vote will come in Tennessee on Oct. 7. There, both parties will hold contested primaries as the first step to replacing resigned Rep. Mark Green (R). The Tennessee special general election is scheduled for Dec. 2.

The final vacant seat, Texas’ 18th District anchored in Houston, will hold its jungle special election on Nov. 4. Should no one reach majority support, Gov. Greg Abbott will then schedule a runoff election for the top two finishers.

California

In a report last month, Sen. Alex Padilla (D-CA) was quoted as saying he is considering entering the open California Governor’s race but will make a decision after the special redistricting election to be held Nov. 4.

It appeared that Sen. Padilla, as a sitting statewide incumbent, would soar to the top of early gubernatorial polls that have never projected any candidate even reaching 20 percent support from what promises to be a crowded final field. The first poll that included Sen. Padilla on the contenders’ list produced a surprising result, however.

The latest California Emerson College Poll (Sept. 15-16; 1,000 registered California voters; multiple sampling techniques) testing the Governor’s race and the redistricting ballot referendum was released over the weekend.

The ballot test again finds former Rep. Katie Porter leading the jungle primary field but with only 16 percent preference. Following are two Republicans totaling 18 percent of the jungle primary vote — former Fox News host Steve Hilton (10 percent) and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Biano (8 percent). Sen. Padilla is next, posting only 7 percent support, which is a surprisingly low number for a sitting US Senator in such a crowded field. Following him, at 3 percent support, is former US Health and Human Services Secretary, ex-California Attorney General, and 12-term Golden State Congressman, Xavier Becerra (D).

Data such as this may prompt Sen. Padilla to have second thoughts about running for Governor. Though he could still certainly mount a winning campaign, his residual political strength is likely less than he initially calculated.

The Emerson poll also tested the special election to pass a redistricting ballot proposition that would bypass the California Citizens Redistricting Commission map and substitute a gerrymandered plan. The new map would ostensibly relegate Republicans to just four of 52 seats in “retaliation,” according to Gov. Gavin Newsom (D), to the Texas redistricting plan.

The ballot initiative polled at 51 percent favoring and 34 percent opposing. While the “Yes” vote is well ahead in this early survey, California analysts point out that the “No” position on almost every ballot initiative gains in polling support as the election draws near. Therefore, reaching only 51 percent in the initial test suggests that the margin for error is slim, and securing passage is not a foregone conclusion.

Expect the Golden State Governor’s race, Sen. Padilla’s ultimate decision about running, and the redistricting referendum to draw much more national attention as we move toward the Nov. 4 special election and the California candidate filing deadline slated for March 6, 2026.

Senate Turnover

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Sept. 22, 2025

Senate

Without any incumbent losing in the 2026 election, it is possible we will see as many as a dozen new Senators come to Washington when the 120th Congress convenes. Obviously, the number will grow even higher should any incumbent fall to a challenger, and further retirements as state candidate filing deadlines begin to approach are of course possible.

At this point, eight Senators have announced they will not seek re-election, but the cycle’s wild card is potentially seeing five Senators running for Governor in their respective states. This unusually high number includes four Senators who are not in-cycle, meaning they would not have to risk their current position to enter the state race.

Currently, Sens. Tommy Tuberville (R-AL), Michael Bennet (D-CO), and Marsha Blackburn (R-TN) are announced gubernatorial candidates. Two more, Sens. Alex Padilla (D-CA) and Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), have made public statements admitting they are considering entering open Governor’s races in their states. From this entire group, only Sen. Tuberville is eschewing re-election to run for Governor.

Sen. Padilla said he will wait to determine if he will launch a gubernatorial bid until the special redistricting vote scheduled for Nov. 4. Just this week, Sen. Murkowski again said she “isn’t ruling out” running for Governor of Alaska and made the point of having the “luxury” of waiting until deeper in the election cycle to make a final decision.

All of the Senators running or potentially running for Governor have or would have a strong chance of winning. This means that all but one would have the opportunity of appointing their own successor to the Senate upon election. Already speculation is running high in places like Colorado and Tennessee as to who will be the chosen replacement. Alabama voters will choose their next Senator in the 2026 regular election.

Of the 35 Senate races in the ’26 election cycle, including the two special elections in Florida and Ohio, Republicans must defend 22 of the in-cycle seats as compared to just 13 for the Democrats. Today, it appears that only three are in the toss-up category, Georgia, Michigan, and North Carolina, with the remaining 32 being safe for the incumbent party or at least leaning in its direction.

A Georgia poll released just this week (Quantus Insights; Sept. 9-12; 624 likely Georgia general election voters; online and text) projects Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) and Rep. Mike Collins (R-Jackson) locked in a 38-38 percent tie.

In the open Michigan race, Republican Mike Rogers, who lost the 2024 Senate contest by just 19,006 votes (three-tenths of a percentage point), has an unencumbered path to the Republican nomination, while the Democrats are embroiled in a three-way primary battle that won’t be decided until Aug. 4.

Recent North Carolina polling data (Change Research; Sept. 2-8; 855 likely North Carolina voters; online) finds former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) leading ex-Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley 48-41 percent in a race to replace retiring Sen. Thom Tillis (R) that is expected to be close through the entire campaign.

In the races involving Senators running for Governor, Sen. Tuberville to date faces no major Alabama Republican primary opposition in his open race. Incumbent Gov. Kay Ivey (R) is ineligible to seek a third term. A Democratic nominee will have a difficult time overcoming Sen. Tuberville in the general election. The party hopes to recruit former Sen. Doug Jones into the race, but he lost to Tuberville 60-40 percent in the 2020 Senate campaign. Therefore, Sen. Tuberville appears as a lock to win the Governorship next year.

Colorado Sen. Bennet would have little trouble in his state’s open Governor’s election as incumbent Jared Polis (D) is also term-limited in 2026. In the Democratic primary, Attorney General Phil Weiser remains in the race, and he is Sen. Bennet’s strongest potential opponent. The only published poll of this campaign came from the Global Strategy Group in June (June 9-11; 600 likely Colorado Democratic primary voters; live interview) and posted Sen. Bennet to a strong 53-22 percent advantage over Weiser.

Tennessee Sen. Blackburn faces GOP primary opposition in the person of Rep. John Rose (R-Cookeville). The latest poll comes from Quantus Insights (Aug. 5-7; 600 registered Tennessee voters; online & text) and posts Sen. Blackburn to a large 35-6 percent lead for the party nomination.

California Sen. Padilla would be a very formidable candidate, and likely the favorite, in the open Governor’s race to replace incumbent Gavin Newsom (D). A large jungle primary field awaits with no candidate so far even reaching 20 percent in any poll. The ostensible leader by a small percentage is former Rep. Katie Porter (D), but a Padilla entry would almost certainly allow him to advance into the general election. There, he would be a big favorite even in a two-way Democratic November campaign.

Sen. Murkowski, on the other hand, should she run for Governor, could face major general election opposition. Waiting in the wings is Democratic former at-large Rep. Mary Peltola. Even though she lost a close 2024 general election, Peltola remains a popular figure and would clearly be the Democrats’ best option to convert the Governor’s position away from the Republicans. As in other discussed situations, incumbent Mike Dunleavy (R) is ineligible to seek re-election.

The addition of multiple Senators running as candidates for Governor across the nation changes the 2026 Senate election cycle. Therefore, it is probable we will see several more freshman Senators in 2027 than the regular election will produce.

Georgia’s Sen. Ossoff in Dead Heat

See 2026 Georgia Senate poll results: Quantas Insights.

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Sept. 19, 2025

Senate

As we know, the swing state of Georgia will be one of the key battleground 2026 US Senate domains, and a new statewide poll released earlier this week confirms the race will present challenges for both sides.

Georgia Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff

The Quantus Insights Peach State poll finds first-term Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) falling into a dead heat with one Republican US House member and leads another within the polling margin of error. Yet, as we have seen in some other places, the polling sample shows issue inconsistencies within the electorate.

According to the Quantus study (Sept. 9-12; 624 likely Georgia general election voters; online and text), Sen. Ossoff and Rep. Mike Collins (R-Jackson) are tied at 38 percent preference and Rep. Buddy Carter (R-Pooler/Savannah) trails the Senator, 37-40 percent. Former University of Tennessee football coach Derek Dooley, son of long-time University of Georgia football coach Vince Dooley, is definitively behind Sen. Ossoff trailing 42-35 percent.

While other polls have shown similarly close ballot tests, the Quantus survey is interesting in that it delves more deeply into issues and reveals that both eventual nominees will have challenges in attempting to forge a winning coalition.

For example, while President Trump scores a 49 percent job approval score, Sen. Ossoff posts 47 percent, yet the two are virtually diametrically opposed on the issue agenda. Furthermore, while Sen. Ossoff posts a 47:37 percent job approval index, only 36 percent of the same sampling universe believes he deserves re-election, and 49 percent believes it is “time for a change.”

In an overwhelming number (53 percent), the poll respondents cite the cost of living and inflation as the most important issue. Crime and public safety is second (13 percent), with jobs and the economy closely behind (12 percent). The number one response, however, for why costs are rising is President Trump’s tariffs and trade policies (41 percent). The Biden Administration economic policies were the second-most mentioned cause (27 percent).

When asked which party do the Georgia respondents trust more to handle the economic issues, 40 percent said the Democrats and only 39 percent answered Republicans. On bringing down the cost of living, it is again the Democrats holding a slight edge, 36-35 percent.

On crime, however, Republicans are more trusted, 42-29 percent. Same for immigration with a 48-28 percent Republican favorable split. By a 53-40 percent majority, the respondents favor the mass deportation policy, while only 31 percent support Ossoff’s border security position. A total of 76 percent support the crime prevention Laken Riley Act, a Republican bill that Sen. Ossoff supported.

An inconsistency appears when respondents are asked to list what they believe should be the next Senator’s priorities. In order, the responses were reducing taxes for working families (39 percent), cutting wasteful federal spending (24 percent), and reducing regulations that raise prices (21 percent). This is in line with the Republican message, but the sentiment is not fully translating to the Republican candidates, particularly among Independent voters.

While Sen. Ossoff is unopposed for the Democratic nomination, on the Republican side the Quantus poll found Rep. Collins leading Rep. Carter and Dooley, 25-20-7 percent. With a large undecided pool, this campaign will go down to the wire toward the May 19 primary. If no one receives 50 percent, the top two finishers will advance to a June 16 runoff election.

As a reminder for the general election, Georgia is one of two states that also features a runoff election if no candidate receives majority support in the November vote. The post-election runoff was forced in the past two Georgia Senate elections. If this situation presents itself again in 2026, the deciding runoff will be held on Dec. 1.

As is the case in virtually every election, messaging will be key. Republicans must find a way to relate what are typically Georgia voter issue positions directly to the party’s Senate candidate, while Sen. Ossoff must find ways to improve his electoral standing even though his job approval is relatively good. It is important to note that in this poll’s ballot tests, the Senator did not break 40 percent preference against any Republican.

Along with the Senate races in Michigan, North Carolina, and Texas, the Georgia Senate battle will be a premier 2026 electoral contest.

Challenging Kentucky Rep. Massie

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Sept. 18, 2025

House

Congressman Thomas Massie (R-KY) / Photo by Gage Skidmore, Flickr

Kentucky Congressman Thomas Massie (R-Garrison) has made a name for himself as the House member most likely to oppose his own party. While self-described as a conservative budget hawk, Rep. Massie has angered the party leadership and President Trump on several occasions, the most recent being his opposition to the “Big Beautiful Bill.”

While saying he is a “constitutional conservative,” Massie has also caused Republican leaders to bristle at his consistent opposition to Republican budget. Furthermore, he is now teaming up with Rep. Ro Khanna (D-CA) to file a disclosure petition to force a floor vote pertaining to releasing the Epstein files.

The Congressman’s antics have spurred President Trump to publicly call for a Republican to come forward to challenge Rep. Massie in the party primary.

A report surfacing in The Down Ballot political blog states that Kentucky GOP leaders are now attempting to convince former Attorney General and 2023 gubernatorial nominee Daniel Cameron to abandon his US Senate race and instead challenge Rep. Massie in the May 2026 Kentucky GOP primary.

Cameron shot down the story as “fake news,” but such is often the case with potential candidates before they eventually make a race to which they originally rejected. That’s not to say, however, that Cameron has a long-term plan to switch campaigns. The former AG points out that he is leading in US Senate polls, thus rhetorically questioning why he would leave that campaign.

While the latest published US Senate Republican primary survey did find Cameron leading Congressman Andy Barr (R-Lexington), 37-29 percent (Public Opinion Strategies, Sept. 2-4; 600 likely Kentucky Republican primary voters; live interview), his margin is down from the 44-18 percent lead he posted in an April McLaughlin & Associates poll (April 13-15; 500 likely Kentucky Republican primary voters; live interview).

Additionally, Cameron is way behind in campaign resources. According to the June 30 Federal Election Commission campaign financial disclosure report, Rep. Barr possessed $6.1 million in the Cash-on-Hand category while Cameron’s campaign account had only $532,000. Therefore, the campaign momentum is shifting in Rep. Barr’s favor.

Looking at the complete picture, it would not be surprising to see Cameron look for other options since Rep. Barr soon taking the lead in their primary campaign appears likely.

Despite President Trump asking for potential Republican candidates to come forward to challenge Rep. Massie, no major contender has yet entered the race. Freshman state Sen. Aaron Reed (R-Shelbyville) had been mentioned as a possibility, but no candidacy has yet materialized. Same for state Rep. Kim Moser (R-Independence).

Yet, even if Cameron were to enter the congressional race, Rep. Massie is not an easy mark, even if an eventual challenger has the Trump endorsement.

Thomas Massie was first elected to the House in 2012, after winning the Lewis County Judge-Executive position in 2010. Lewis County is a small (just over 13,000 population) rural domain on the Ohio border in Kentucky’s northeastern region. In his initial local election, Massie defeated an incumbent in the GOP primary. Moving to his first congressional race two years later, Massie became the first person to win the 4th District hailing from eastern Kentucky in 45 years.

The Congressman is also a popular figure back home, even while being unpopular in Washington. In his seven congressional elections, Rep. Massie has averaged 70.7 percent of the vote including running unopposed in 2024. He has been challenged as an incumbent in three Republican primaries and averaged 77.4 percent of the vote in those elections.

In preparation for a potential primary challenge, Rep. Massie jumped out to a fast start. Since the beginning of the year, he has raised over $1 million and reports $1.7 million cash-on-hand. This figure is more than three times what Mr. Cameron has in his statewide account, for example.

Therefore, while Massie may be President Trump’s top GOP prospect for replacement, the early prognostication favors the intransigent incumbent to win yet again.

Cornyn Takes Lead in New Poll

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Sept. 16, 2025

Senate

Texas Sen. John Cornyn (R)

For the first time in the 2026 election cycle, Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) has posted a Republican primary polling lead versus his renomination opponent, Lone Star State Attorney General Ken Paxton.

The poll, from Texas Public Opinion Research as reported in a Politico Playbook release (Aug. 27-29; 843 registered Texas voters) posts the Senator to a six-point lead over Paxton, 32-26 percent with now 29 percent saying they are undecided.

With new revelations of another Paxton extramarital affair coming into the public domain, which would be the second time the Attorney General has been involved in such a scandal and now with a different woman, the new TPOR survey may be setting a new polling trend.

During Paxton’s 2023 bribery impeachment trial in the Texas Senate, a woman with whom he was having an affair was called upon to testify publicly. The Senate eventually acquitted Paxton, and he remains in office today. Since that time, the Attorney General’s wife, state Sen. Angela Paxton (R-Plano), filed for divorce. The woman who is the subject of this latest story has recently divorced, but the new affair was apparently underway while both were married to other individuals.

Throughout this year, Paxton has consistently led Sen. Cornyn in GOP primary polls. Until August, Paxton held the advantage in every published poll (13 from 13 different pollsters) by an average of just under 15 percentage points.

In the most recent five polls now including the Texas Public Opinion Research survey, the Paxton average edge had lessened to 1.6 points. Now, we see the latest publicly released survey putting Sen. Cornyn ahead beyond the polling margin of error, with the understanding that the study was conducted prior to the breaking scandal news becoming public.

Because Sen. Cornyn clearly has the momentum and a financial advantage (the June 30 Federal Election Commission financial disclosure reports showed Cornyn holding $5.9 million in his campaign as compared to Paxton’s $2.5 million) the four-term incumbent now has an opportunity to capitalize upon this most recent polling trend and can possibly permanently reverse the race trajectory.

Action is underway for the Texas Democrats, too. While former Congressman and 2024 US Senate nominee Colin Allred has formally announced his candidacy for 2026, he no longer has an unimpeded path to the party nomination. State Rep. James Talarico (D-Austin), who has become the darling of the Texas political media, is also an announced candidate. Earlier reports of former Congressman and ex-presidential, US Senate, and gubernatorial candidate Beto O’Rourke (D) considering launching a new Senate candidacy have largely dissipated.

Upon Talarico’s formal announcement of candidacy on Sept. 9, a Public Policy Polling survey (Sept. 3-4; 510 likely Texas Democratic primary voters; live interview & text) was released showing the state Representative trailing Allred, 40-32 percent. While Allred remains the favorite for the party nomination, Talarico’s challenge must be regarded as serious, and we can now expect a competitive and expensive Democratic primary campaign to accompany what we are seeing on the Republican side.

The latest pro-Cornyn developments are also positive for Republican prospects in the general election. Polling shows Sen. Cornyn enjoying healthy leads in general election pairings, and most believe Paxton would be a weaker candidate.

A Paxton nomination would likely allow the Democratic nominee to have a legitimate chance of winning the statewide race in Texas, something Lone Star State Democrats have been unable to accomplish since 1994.

Once Again, Ernst Polling Is Close

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Aug. 28, 2025

Senate

Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA)

In her two previous victorious Iowa US Senate races, Republican Joni Ernst defied the aggregate polling universe, and a new Public Policy Polling survey of the 2026 campaign suggests we may see this familiar pattern repeat.

As a whole in both 2014 and 2020, the pollster universe underestimated Ernst’s political strength and miscast her campaigns as being too close to call when they weren’t.

In Sen. Ernst’s first statewide election, running from her position as a state Senator, she defeated then-US Rep. Bruce Braley (D) by more than eight percentage points, or a full six points above her average polling lead according to the Real Clear Politics Polling Archives.

In her re-election bid from five years ago against Des Moines businesswoman Theresa Greenfield, Sen. Ernst headed into Election Day with just over a one point average edge, again according to the RCP Polling Archives, yet won with close to a seven-point cushion.

The new PPP Iowa poll (Aug. 18-19; 572 registered Iowa voters; live interview and text) finds Sen. Ernst with only toss-up leads over a series of largely unknown, from a statewide perspective, Democratic candidates.

According to the Public Policy Polling results, Sen. Ernst would lead state Sen. Zach Wahls (D-Des Moines), only 43-42 percent; she tops Des Moines School Board chair Jackie Norris, 45-42 percent; and posts a pair of 45-41 percent advantages over local Chamber of Commerce executive Nathan Sage and state Rep. Josh Turek (D-Council Bluffs).

In reviewing the Polling Archives from her two previous statewide races, we saw Sen. Ernst beginning well behind.

In 2014, against Braley, Sen. Ernst trailed in the first published poll – in July of 2013 and again according to PPP – by a 13 percentage point margin, 45-33. Over the course of the 2014 campaign, 45 statewide surveys were publicly released from 14 different pollsters.

Within the 45 poll universe, Sen. Ernst led in 19, but none among the first nine released surveys (down an average of 7.1 points). In the campaign’s closing stage, her average percentage lead was 2.3 from the six polls released during the Oct. 27 to Nov. 3 period, yet her actual victory margin over Braley was 8.5 percent.

In 2020, this time as the incumbent seeking her first re-election, we saw a similar pattern unfold. In the ’20 race, the Real Clear Polling Archives reports a total of 19 Iowa Senate race polls being released from nine different polling organizations beginning in early April of the election year.

The first released poll again came from PPP with a survey ending on May 1, 2020. It projected Sen. Ernst as having a 43-42 percent edge over Greenfield, the same percentage this new 2025 poll finds her leading opposite state Sen. Wahls.

Within the 19-poll universe that the RCP Polling Archives tracked in the 2020 campaign, Sen. Ernst led in only seven of the polls and trailed by an average of just under three percentage points through the period ending Oct. 24 (a total of 14 released polls). In the final five polls, during the Oct. 27 through Nov. 2 period, Sen. Ernst built an average polling point lead of only 1.4 according to the Archives’ calculations but won the race on Nov. 3 by 6.6 percent.

We saw similar polling underestimates in President Trump’s three Iowa campaigns. In 2016, again with data from the Polling Archives, 26 presidential polls were conducted in the Hawkeye State from Aug. 9, 2015 through Nov. 4, 2016. Within the 26-poll universe, Hillary Clinton led in 10 with four ties. Looking at the final three polls from Nov. 1 through Nov. 4, Trump led in two with an average three-poll lead of three percentage points. On Nov. 8, 2016, he carried Iowa with a 9.5 percent margin spread.

In 2020, though Trump would lose the national election, he again carried Iowa with a greater than predicted margin. In this election, 27 polls were conducted from the period of Feb. 2, 2020 through Nov. 2. The polling universe was better in this election, as they forecast Trump to be leading Joe Biden in 15 of the polls with three ties. In the final five polls from Oct. 27 through Nov. 2, he led in four of the surveys with an average edge of two percentage points. Again, his final margin on Nov. 3 was much larger: 8.5 points.

In 2024, Iowa polling became a point of national contention as the state’s pollster deemed most accurate, Selzer & Company, projected a Kamala Harris lead of three percentage points in a poll concluded on Oct. 31.

President Trump would carry the state on Nov. 5 by a 13.2 percent margin, meaning the Selzer miss was a whopping 16-plus points.

Only three presidential polls were released during the closing days of the Iowa 2024 cycle. The other two pollsters, Emerson College and Insider Advantage, were much closer to the final result (Trump plus-10 and plus-6, respectively), but even they underestimated the Republican strength.

While the early 2025 Public Policy Polling survey again depicts Sen. Ernst in a potentially close race, this is nothing new for her Iowa Senate campaigns. If polling history is any indication, the end result will likely tell a much different story.

Husted, Ramaswamy Lead in New Poll

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Aug. 26, 2025

Senate

Republican Vivek Ramaswamy / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Both appointed Sen. Jon Husted (R) and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy (R) lead in a new statewide Ohio 2026 general election poll, and the data also contain some interesting ancillary results.

Emerson College conducted the new statewide Ohio poll (Aug. 18-19; 1,000 registered Ohio voters; 490 likely OH Republican primary voters; 383 likely Ohio Democratic primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) and the results project Sen. Husted leading former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D), 50-44 percent. This is the first Senate survey released since Brown officially announced that he will make a political comeback.

In the Governor’s contest, Ramaswamy, the endorsed Ohio Republican Party candidate, leads former state Health Director Amy Acton (D) 49-39 percent, and former Congressman and ex-US Senate candidate Tim Ryan (D) 49-41 percent. Last week, Ryan said he would make a decision about entering the Governor’s race by the end of September.

President Trump’s job approval score was 49:42 positive to negative, with unsurprisingly almost all of the Republicans approving and a near unanimous Democratic segment disapproving. As part of the survey, Emerson then tested the personal approval index of nine Buckeye State public figures.

In the Senate race, appointed incumbent Husted’s favorability index is 33:28 positive to negative, while former Sen. Brown is better known but has a tighter favorable lean, 44:42.

Interestingly, the only one of the nine tested political personalities to post an upside-down personal rating was first-term Sen. Bernie Moreno (R) at 38:42. On the job approval score, Gov. Mike DeWine (R) also scored in negative territory, 32:40.

The political figure with the lowest unfavorable personal rating (17 percent), is Lt. Gov. Jim Tressel (R), the former Ohio State University head football coach. Tressel still has not completely ruled out running for Governor, but it appears highly unlikely that he will enter the statewide race.

Vice President and former Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance (R) posted a 48:43 percent favorability index, which also is the highest individual negative score of anyone tested but, again, the split is purely partisan with Republicans overwhelmingly favorable and Democrats viewing him unfavorably in virtually equal proportions.

To underscore the partisanship view, when asking this sample of Ohio Republican voters who they would favor to succeed President Trump in 2028, favorite son Vance was the overpowering choice, 55-9-7-6-4 percent over Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, Ohio gubernatorial candidate Ramaswamy, and former UN Ambassador and 2024 presidential candidate Nikki Haley, respectively.

The Democratic sample was also polled regarding their next presidential preference. On this question it is California Gov. Gavin Newsom who placed first within the Democratic sample of 388 respondents, which is a low number for a state the size of Ohio. Irrespective of the potential sampling flaw, Newsom captured a 20 percent preference figure. Obviously, this is a very low number, but it is still tops among the tested potential candidates.

In what should be considered bad news for ex-US Transportation Secretary and former South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg, he finished behind Newsom with only 15 percent support. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) was third with eight percent, followed by a three-way tie with seven percent apiece among Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), a two-time presidential candidate, former Vice President and 2024 Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris, and Minnesota Governor and 2024 Democratic Vice Presidential nominee Tim Walz.

Sen. Sanders, referring to his age (he will be 87 years old during the 2028 campaign), is indicating that he will not run for President again. The Harris-Walz showing is particularly poor for the most recent presidential ticket nominees within a Democratic Party segment cell.

Cornyn Rebounds

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Aug. 20, 2025

Senate

Texas Sen. John Cornyn (R)

For the first time this year, Sen. John Cornyn has posted a polling lead over Attorney General Ken Paxton in their 2026 Texas Republican primary battle.

Emerson College tested the Lone Star State electorate (Aug. 11-12; 1,000 registered Texas voters; 491 self-identified Texas Republican voters; multiple sampling techniques) and the results project Sen. Cornyn only edging AG Paxton by a scant 30-29 percent, but the survey clearly shows positive movement for the veteran incumbent.

A dozen Republican primary polls, including the current Emerson College study, have been released since the beginning of the year from 12 different pollsters (eight Republican firms, one Democratic pollster, and three university research departments).

Though the Emerson data still shows weakness for Sen. Cornyn, it detects a vastly improved incumbent standing. In the 11 polls conducted prior to Emerson’s, Paxton averaged a lead of just under 16 percentage points. In seven of the 11, the three-term AG reached or topped the 50 percent mark.

More data needs to be studied in order to confirm this new trend, especially since the Emerson poll consisted of registered voters as opposed to those likely to cast their ballot in a Republican primary. Additionally, the sample size of 491 self-identified Republicans is low for a state the size of Texas and one where GOP primary turnout reached almost 2 million voters the last time Sen. Cornyn appeared on the ballot (2020). Furthermore, the fact that Sen. Cornyn only reached a 30 percent preference figure is also a negative sign for a four-term incumbent within his own party.

Conversely, the results clearly show movement in Cornyn’s favor and coincide with a recent Cornyn campaign blitz designed to intensify a Paxton negative personal image. The new poll results suggest the Cornyn campaign strategy is working as Paxton is losing support even though the Senator’s preference number doesn’t yet appear to be rising. In the previously mentioned dozen polls, Emerson inclusive, Sen. Cornyn’s average is 33.2 percent.

The 2026 Texas Senate race will be exorbitantly expensive. In 2024, Sen. Ted Cruz (R) and then-Rep. Colin Allred (D), including approximately $64 million in outside expenditures that helped both candidates, spent an aggregate of $266 million. It is probable that such an amount will be equaled or topped in 2026.

According to the 2nd Quarter Federal Election Commission financial disclosure reports for the current election cycle, Sen. Cornyn has raised over $9.8 million for the 2026 campaign and holds almost $9 million in his campaign account. Paxton reported campaign receipts of $2.9 million with slightly over $2.5 million cash-on-hand.

Because he is a recently announced 2026 candidate, Allred has not yet had to file a disclosure report for the current campaign. For his 2024 effort, Allred raised over $94 million, a total that ranked as fourth-best among all Senate candidates. Therefore, we can again expect to see him well-funded for the coming campaign.

There is still some discussion that former Congressman, ex-US Senate, and former presidential candidate Beto O’Rourke could enter the ’26 Senate campaign. If he were to become a candidate, the Democratic primary would also become competitive. Since the Allred announcement, however, talk of an O’Rourke Senate campaign has faded, though the former El Paso Congressman is certainly politically active.

O’Rourke began raising money to fund the state House Representatives who fled Texas in order to prevent obtaining a quorum in the special legislative session. The politicians made their move to at least postpone the legislature from passing a new congressional redistricting map.

Because a law was passed to fine any member who purposely missed session for legislative purposes, O’Rourke went to work funding a non-profit political organization to pay the amassed fines. A Texas judge has struck down his effort, however, since the law purposely prevented political money from being used to pay the personal fines.

Along with Arkansas and North Carolina, the March 3 Texas primary is the earliest in the nation. Therefore, we can expect to see heavy political action coming from the Lone Star State during the latter half of this year.

Krishnamoorthi Expands Lead;
A Crowded 32-Candidate TX-18 Field

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Aug. 15, 2025

Senate

Illinois Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Schaumburg)

A new survey conducted for a Super PAC supporting Illinois Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Schaumburg) finds the Congressman expanding his previous lead in the open US Senate Democratic primary. Three major candidates are vying for the opportunity of succeeding retiring Sen. Dick Durbin (D).

According to the A to Z poll (conducted for the Impact Fund Super PAC; Aug. 8-10; 615 likely Illinois Democratic primary voters; online), Rep. Krishnamoorthi holds a 38-17-7 percent lead over Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton and Rep. Robin Kelly (D-Matteson/Chicago), respectively. When those leaning to one of the candidates are added, the Krishnamoorthi advantage expands to 51-28-13 percent.

In June, the GBAO research firm released an Illinois Senate survey (June 5-10; 1,200 likely Illinois Democratic primary voters) that posted Krishnamoorthi to a 32-19-14 percent edge over Lt. Gov. Stratton and Rep. Kelly.

The northern Illinois Congressman also leads in another critical category, that of fundraising. According to the 2nd Quarter Federal Election Commission campaign finance disclosure reports, Rep. Krishnamoorthi had raised at the June 30 reporting deadline almost $12.7 million with a cash-on-hand figure of $11.76 million, far above his two opponents. Stratton, who entered the race in late April, attracted just over $1 million and held $666,000 in her federal campaign account. Rep. Kelly posted $2.4 million in receipts and $2.2 million cash-on-hand.

It is likely that each candidate will see support coming from outside organizations, and it is a certainty that the Impact Fund will be spending to help Krishnamoorthi.

Stratton is counting on Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D), who has endorsed her candidacy, and his allies to come to the table with financial support, but such has yet to materialize. Rep. Kelly will likely have enough in the way of financial backing to be competitive, but the early indicators are certainly pointing Rep. Krishnamoorthi’s way.

The March 17 plurality primary is the actual election in Illinois since it is unlikely the Republican Party will be able to field a credible candidate to compete in a state so solidly in the Democratic camp. The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 55.5D – 39.9R Illinois partisan lean.

In the past two national elections, President Trump lost in the Land of Lincoln. In 2020, President Biden defeated him 57-41 percent, and Kamala Harris posted a 54-43 percent victory margin last November.

TX-18

A new internal campaign poll was released of the TX-18 special election scheduled for Nov. 4. A large field of 32 announced candidates are competing for the opportunity of replacing the late Rep. Sylvester Turner (D-Houston). The eventual winner, however, may have a very short tenure in Congress.

Former Houston City Councilwoman and ex-statewide candidate Amanda Edwards (D) released the results of her campaign’s Brilliant Corners survey (July 20-23; 500 likely TX-18 special election voters; live interview) and found Edwards leading former Miss Universe contestant Carmen Maria Montiel (R), state Rep. Jolanda Jones (D-Houston), Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee (D), and George Foreman IV (I), 18-12-11-10-6 percent, respectively.

The results slightly conflict with a University of Houston poll conducted earlier in July (July 9-18; 400 likely TX-18 registered voters from a sample pool of 2,300 Harris County registered voters; SMS text) that found Edwards and Menefee tied with 19 percent, Montiel and Jones deadlocked at 14 percent preference, and Foreman posting four percent support.

The concluding analysis suggests that no one even reaching the 20 percent support plateau translates into a wide open race with much time remaining before voters begin to cast their ballots. Considering the volume of candidates, even if several do not ultimately qualify, it becomes a foregone conclusion that the contest will advance to a runoff election between the top two finishers regardless of political party affiliation. After the initial vote, Gov. Greg Abbott (R) will schedule the runoff once the primary result becomes official.

Yet, regardless of the special election outcome it is likely when the new redistricting map passes that the winner will be paired in a new 18th District with Rep. Al Green (D-Houston).

Therefore, the new congressional member will immediately find him or herself in a primary campaign, likely against Rep. Green, that will be held March 3. Thus, having to compete in a runoff election probably in early January only then be forced to face Rep. Green in a partisan Democratic primary just weeks later will likely be enough to yield the special election winner a very limited congressional tenure.