By Jim Ellis — Monday, Oct. 3, 2022
SenateNew Hampshire: Again, Beyond Error Margin — Though the new Suffolk University survey for the Boston Globe newspaper (Sept. 23-26; 500 likely New Hampshire general election voters) shows Sen. Maggie Hassan (D) holding a lead well beyond the polling margin of error over retired Army Gen. Don Bolduc (R) as do three other post-primary pollsters, their 50-41 percent margin is a touch closer than some of the other results.
While Republican national political organizations continuing to spend heavily will likely draw Gen. Bolduc closer to Sen. Hassan, it is unlikely that her ballot test advantage can be overcome before Election Day. Therefore, the analysis that the GOP strategists will pull their media buy from the New Hampshire race and transfer it to other more winnable contests remains valid.
North Carolina: The “Three-Way” Tie — The North Carolina Senate race has been tight for weeks, but now we see three separate pollsters all finding the race status languishing in a flat tie. The Cygnal polling organization (Sept. 24-26; 650 likely North Carolina voters), Meredith College (Sept. 20-23; 731 likely North Carolina voters), and the Global Strategy Group (Sept. 12-20; 800 likely North Carolina voters) all project tied results. Cygnal sees Rep. Ted Budd (R-Advance) and former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Cheri Beasley (D) each attracting 44 percent of the vote. Meredith College finds both with 41 percent, while GSG’s total is 46 percent apiece.
Obviously, the North Carolina Senate race is one of the closest in the nation with just over a month remaining and early voting on the cusp of beginning.
Pennsylvania: Dr. Oz Moving Closer — A trio of new surveys find Dr. Mehmet Oz (R) coming within close range of Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D) in their expensive battle over what is one of the most important Senate contests in the nation.
Fox News (Sept. 22-26; 827 likely Pennsylvania general election voters) finds Dr. Oz pulling to within four points of Fetterman, 48-44 percent. Franklin & Marshall College (Sept. 19-25; 517 likely Pennsylvania general election voters) and Insider Advantage (Sept. 23-24; 550 likely Pennsylvania general election voters) also see similar margins. The latter two arrive at identical ballot test results: Fetterman leading 45-42 percent. With early voting just days away from beginning since the ballots have already been mailed to the registered voters, Dr. Oz may be making his move at precisely the right time.
Wisconsin: Six Polls, Six Tight Results — The Wisconsin governor’s race between incumbent Gov. Tony Evers (D) and businessman and former statewide nominee Tim Michels (R) is clearly a dead heat. Six polling firms were in the field during the Sept. 14-27 period surveying between 574 and 1,399 likely or registered voters and each sees an extremely close race.
Emerson College and Public Policy Polling find Gov. Evers leading by two percentage points. Big Data Poll and Fox News saw the race as a dead heat tie. The Trafalgar Group and Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D), polling for AARP, project Michels as holding a tight lead. In five of the six results, both candidates drew support within the 40s. Only the AARP survey found a contender, Michels, reaching the 50 percent mark.