Category Archives: Polling

Liz Cheney Considers Candidacy for Presidency; Illinois Candidate Filing Closes; NY-3 Dems Want More Time; McHenry to Retire

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Dec. 7, 2023

President

Former Rep. Liz Cheney (R) was one of 10 Republican House members who voted to impeach former President Donald Trump.

Liz Cheney: Publicly Considers Independent Candidacy — Former Congresswoman Liz Cheney (R) said that she is considering running as an Independent in the presidential race for the purpose of taking votes away from former President Donald Trump.

While Cheney didn’t declare her candidacy, she might find the ballot qualification obstacles much more formidable than she might believe. Not representing a political party with ballot status, an Independent must navigate 51 different requirement systems to earn a nationwide ballot line. This realization will likely discourage several of the candidates who are looking to launch non-affiliated presidential efforts.

House

Illinois: Candidate Filing Closes — Candidate filing for the Illinois March 19 primary has concluded, and several points of note are present. With no Senate race in Illinois this year, the focus of attention will be the presidential race and the US House campaigns as well as other down ballot Land of Lincoln campaigns.

Four delegation incumbents drew no major party general election opposition. Reps. Jesue “Chuy” Garcia (D-Chicago), Jan Schacowsky (D-Evanston), Mary Miller (R-Oakland), and Darin LaHood (R-Peoria) look to have free rides in the general election. Reps. Miller and LaHood also drew no primary opponent.

Rep. Danny Davis (D-Chicago), running for a 15th term, has five Democratic primary opponents. While the effort against him is serious considering his 2022 renomination percentage was only 51.9, the fact that so many people are on the ballot will split the anti-Davis vote and allow him to win renomination with plurality support. Rep. Mike Bost (R-Murphysboro) sees a primary battle emerging from the party’s 2022 gubernatorial nominee, former state Sen. Darren Bailey.

The most competitive general election race looks to be in the Quad Cities area of western Illinois where freshman Rep. Eric Sorensen (D-Moline) is likely to face retired circuit judge Joe McGraw (R).

NY-3: Democrats Want More Time to Pick Nominee — A bit of a political surprise has occurred on Long Island. Tuesday was the planned day that former Rep. Tom Suozzi (D) was scheduled to be presented as the party’s special election nominee to replace expelled Rep. George Santos (R). While Nassau County chairman Jay Jacobs has a virtual monopoly on naming the nominee, he says more time is required to consult with party leaders on the county committee, in addition to US House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-Brooklyn), and other prominent Democrats.

Jacobs, who is also the New York State Democratic Committee chairman, further said that the nomination is not a “lock” for any candidate and that contenders in addition to Suozzi are being interviewed before the party committee structure. Republicans are going through the same process. Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) set the 3rd District special election for Feb. 13.

NC-10: Rep. Patrick McHenry to Retire — House Financial Services chairman Patrick McHenry (R-Lake Norman), who is the Speaker Pro Tempore and presided over the election of Speaker Mike Johnson, announced Tuesday that he will not seek an 11th term in the House next year. Term-limited in his chairmanship even if the Republicans hold the majority, Rep. McHenry, still only 48 years old, will end his congressional tenure after 20 years in office.

The McHenry retirement means that 34 seats and counting will be open for the next election. NC-10 should remain safely in Republicans hands (Dave’s Redistricting App calculates a 56.6R – 41.3D partisan lean), so the battle to succeed the retiring congressman will lie in the Republican primary. The North Carolina primary is scheduled for Super Tuesday, March 5. If no one reaches 30 percent of the vote, a runoff election will be held on May 14.

Trone Leads in NJ Poll; Three-Way Tie in Ohio; Menendez Repercussions; Incumbent Challenge in NY; Early Showdown in Virginia

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Dec. 6, 2023

Senate

Rep. David Trone (D-Potomac)

Maryland: Rep. Trone Leads in New Internal Poll — The Trone for Senate campaign released an internal Hickman Analytics survey (Nov. 27-30; 1,000 likely Maryland Democratic primary voters; live interview) that projects US Rep. David Trone (D-Potomac) to be leading his top primary competitor in the open Senate race, Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks, by a 41-34 percent spread.

Rep. Trone, who is largely self-financing his own campaign, has already spent more than $10 million on his statewide effort. The Hickman poll sample consisted of 50 percent white and 42 percent black voters, which may prove an accurate depiction of the Maryland Democratic primary’s racial composition. On the other hand, the sample was weighted heavily toward females, with women comprising 62 percent of the respondent base. This number will prove too high. The Maryland primary is scheduled for May 14.

Ohio: Virtual Three-Way Tie — A new co/efficient poll for the Bernie Moreno (R) Senate campaign finds the Ohio businessman edging ahead of his two Republican opponents, Secretary of State Frank LaRose and state Sen. Matt Dolan (R-Chagrin Falls). Moreno has gained support with a new ad tying him to former President Donald Trump. Still, with the overwhelming majority of respondents classifying themselves as undecided, and the trio of candidates separated by a total of two percentage points, this Republican primary race appears as a pure three-way tie. The Ohio plurality primary is scheduled for March 19.

House

NJ-8: Rep. Menendez Gains Endorsement, Fares Poorly in Poll — It appears that freshman New Jersey Rep. Rob Menendez (D-Jersey City) is absorbing heavy political baggage from his indicted father, Sen. Bob Menendez (D). While just winning the Hudson County Democratic Party’s endorsement, which houses 72 percent of the 8th District’s population and translates into a very favorable primary ballot position, a new Change Research poll (Nov. 28-12/1; 762 likely NJ-8 Democratic primary voters; online) suggests Rep. Menendez is in trouble for re-nomination.

According to the Change Research results, Rep. Menendez’s favorability index stands at a poor 17:51 percent favorable to unfavorable. In a ballot test with his top Democratic primary opponent, Hoboken Mayor Ravi Bhalla who had already raised $400,000 through the end of September, the congressman posts only a 16-13 percent edge. Clearly, this primary challenge will be a race to monitor throughout the early cycle. The New Jersey plurality primary is scheduled for June 4.

NY-16: County Executive Files Congressional Committee — Another hotly contested Democratic primary battle is beginning. On Monday, Westchester County Executive and former state legislator George Latimer (D) filed a congressional committee with the Federal Election Commission. A formal declaration of candidacy is likely to follow shortly. Latimer will be challenging two-term Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-Yonkers) who himself came to office by denying an incumbent renomination. In 2020, Bowman unseated veteran Democratic Congressman Eliot Engel.

Latimer has been in elective office consecutively since the beginning of 2005. This includes his time as Westchester County Executive, a state senator, and a state assemblyman. He will be able to command financial resources and clearly has a base of support. Westchester County comprises 91 percent of the 16th Congressional District’s population. Rep. Bowman’s base comes from the African American community, which is a quarter of the resident base but accounts for a far greater percentage in the Democratic primary.

Governor

Virginia: An Early Showdown — A year and one-half before the next Virginia gubernatorial primary election, we already have a brewing contest. In mid-November, US Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Glen Allen) announced she would forego re-election to a fourth term in the US House in order to run in the open 2025 governor’s race. Now, Richmond Mayor Levar Stoney has already joined the Democratic primary race with his announcement.

Since Virginia is the only state in the Union that has a one-term limit for its governors, incumbent Republican Glenn Youngkin is ineligible to seek re-election, thus guaranteeing an open contest in 2025.

42-Year Incumbent Rep. Kaptur to Run Again; No OH-6 Special Election; NC Filing Deadline Approaches; Jackson Lee Trails in Houston Mayoral Poll

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Nov. 30, 2023

House

Ohio Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Toledo)

OH-9: 42-Year Incumbent Dem to Run Again — US Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Toledo), initially elected in 1982, officially confirmed that she will file to seek a 22nd term. The Ohio candidate filing deadline is Dec. 20 for the March 19 primary, so candidates and challengers in this state, too, are entering the time frame where career decisions must be made.

Though the 9th District favors the Republicans by an average of six percentage points, Rep. Kaptur posted a 57-43 percent victory margin last November against a weak Republican candidate. With former state Rep. Chris Riedel expected to prevail in the 2024 GOP primary, Rep. Kaptur will face a more difficult re-election campaign. The congresswoman ranks fourth in US House seniority, and she is the second-longest serving Democrat behind only former House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-MD).

OH-6: No Special Election to Replace Rep. Johnson — Last week, Ohio US Rep. Bill Johnson (R-Marietta) announced that he will leave Congress in March to become president of Youngstown State University. Since Johnson is leaving the House after the 2024 candidate filing deadline (Dec. 20, 2023), Ohio election procedure indicates there will be no special election to fill the balance of the term. This means the March 19 plurality primary will likely decide Johnson’s successor within a crowded field of Republican candidates.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates OH-6 as R+31, and former President Donald Trump carried the seat with a strong 64-37 percent margin in 2020. Therefore, count on the GOP to easily hold the district in the 2024 general election.

Assuming New York US Rep. George Santos (R-Long Island) is soon expelled, and former Rep. Tom Suozzi (D) wins the special election to replace him as expected, the Republican majority after next March will shrink to 220-214. Therefore, the already close House will soon become even tighter.

North Carolina: Filing Deadline Approaching; New Announcements — The North Carolina congressional campaigns have been active this week, largely because the Dec. 15 candidate filing deadline is fast approaching, and members and challengers need to make final decisions about whether their names will be placed on the ballot next year.

Tuesday saw two announcements. One of the better Republican challenger candidates, state Rep. Erin Pare (R-Holly Springs), who previously announced a congressional bid against US Rep. Wiley Nickel (D-Cary), has decided not to enter the federal race. Instead, she will run for re-election to the state House of Representatives. Pare is indicating her decision is for family reasons, but 2023 redistricting while making the 13th District much more Republican is no longer geographically favorable to Rep. Pare. The eventual GOP nominee here will be favored to unseat Rep. Nickel in November.

In western North Carolina, Democratic state Rep. Caleb Rudow (D-Asheville) declared his challenge to freshman Rep. Chuck Edwards (R-Flat Rock) in a new 11th District where the 2020 electorate voted 55-44 percent for former President Trump according to the Daily Kos Elections site statisticians. You will remember that Rep. Edwards is the Republican candidate who denied then-Rep. Madison Cawthorn (R) renomination in the 2022 campaign. Though Rudow is a credible Democratic contender, Rep. Edwards will be heavily favored to retain the seat in the next election.

Cities

Houston: Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee Trails in New Mayoral Poll — Survey USA conducted a poll for the University of Houston pertaining to Texas’ largest city’s mayoral campaign (Nov. 13-18; 1,120 Houston adults; 971 registered voters; 805 likely voters; multiple sampling techniques) as we approach the Dec. 9 runoff election. The ballot test is breaking 42-35 percent in favor of state Sen. John Whitmire (D-Houston), the second-longest serving member of the Texas legislature having been initially elected in 1972. US Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Houston), who qualified in second place for the runoff, continues to trail Whitmire as the campaign begins to conclude.

According to the S-USA poll, crime is the overwhelming issue of concern. From the tested respondent pool a whopping 63 percent say they don’t feel safe walking around the city during the day.

West Virginia Gov. Justice’s Strong Senate Primary Lead; House Retirements Continue; An Armey Makes a Move; Morrisey in Front

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Nov. 28, 2023

Senate

West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice (R)

West Virginia: Gov. Justice Records Strong Primary Lead — American Pulse, surveying for WMOV radio (Nov. 13-14; 414 WV likely Republican primary voters; multiple sampling techniques), sees Gov. Jim Justice developing a commanding lead over US Rep. Alex Mooney (R-Charles Town) in a just-released poll that was conducted in mid-November. This data shows Gov. Justice with a huge 56-20 percent lead over Rep. Mooney in a primary race that is now likely to determine the state’s next US senator. The race drastically changed when Sen. Joe Manchin (D) announced he would not seek re-election. At this point, Democrats do not have a credible announced candidate.

House

MN-3: Rep. Dean Phillips Won’t Seek Re-Election — Three-term Minnesota US Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Plymouth), who is challenging President Joe Biden for the national Democratic nomination, announced yesterday that he would not seek re-election to the House next year. Phillips, said that running for Congress would be “both unproductive and uncomfortable,” and also that it is “time to pass the torch” in terms of representing Minnesota’s 3rd Congressional District.

Rep. Phillips was already facing a Democratic primary challenge due to his move against President Biden. Democratic National Committee member Ron Harris announced for the House seat immediately upon the congressman declaring his presidential candidacy. Several weeks later, state Sen. Kelly Morrison (D-Deephaven) followed suit. We can expect a crowded and contested Democratic nominating convention along with a likely Aug. 13 primary campaign.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates MN-3 as D+14. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks the district as the 63rd-most vulnerable seat in the Democratic Conference. Republicans will likely make an effort here, but the eventual Democratic nominee will begin as a clear favorite to win the general election.

TX-26: Former Majority Leader’s Son to Try Again — When Texas US Rep. Michael Burgess (R-Pilot Point/Denton) first won his House seat in 2002, he defeated Scott Armey in a Republican runoff. Armey, then the Denton County Judge (Executive), is the son of former House Majority Leader Dick Armey, who he was attempting to succeed. With Burgess last week announcing his retirement after serving what will be 22 years in the House, the younger Armey again declared his candidacy for the seat during the Thanksgiving break.

The 26th District is solidly Republican (FiveThirtyEight rates it as R+26; Daily Kos Elections Rank shows it as the 96th safest Republican seat), so Rep. Burgess’ successor will almost assuredly be decided in a Republican nomination process that will likely include a May 28 runoff after the March 5 primary. At this point, six Republicans have declared for the seat but so far the field of candidates features no sitting elected official.

Governor

West Virginia: Morrisey Back in Front — The aforementioned American Pulse poll for WMOV radio (see West Virginia Senate above) also tested the Republican sampling universe for the open gubernatorial primary. With Gov. Jim Justice moving into the Senate race, the May 14 GOP primary will very likely decide who will succeed Gov. Justice.

Rebounding from an August MetroNews poll that showed him trailing, Attorney General Patrick Morrisey has assumed the lead according to the American Pulse results. In this study, Morrisey, twice elected as AG, leads state Delegate Moore Capito, son of US Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R), 31-23 percent. Secretary of State Mac Warner posts 14 percent in third position with businessman Chris Miller, son of US Rep. Carol Miller (R-Huntington), at 10 percent. While Morrisey has a clear advantage, this poll suggests the race could evolve into a four-way battle as the primary date gets closer.

Michigan Senate Seat a Toss-Up; Cardenas to Retire; A Dead Heat in CA-47; Utah’s Special Election

The EllisInsight will take a break to enjoy the holiday Thursday and will resume regular publishing Friday. Happy Thanksgiving to all.

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Nov. 22, 2023

Senate

Michigan Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing)

Michigan: Toss-Up New Poll — Regular Michigan pollster EPIC-MRA, conducting another survey for the Detroit Free Press newspaper (Nov. 10-16; 600 likely Michigan general election voters) again sees a close US Senate general election. The eventual winner will succeed Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) who is retiring after four terms.

While the presidential ballot test finds former President Donald Trump leading President Joe Biden 46-41 percent, and with former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley posting an 11-point advantage against the incumbent president, US Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) still maintains a small margin over both of her leading Republicans — former Congressman Mike Rogers and retired Detroit Police Chief James Craig. Against each, Slotkin holds a two-point edge, meaning the open Michigan Senate race could soon be rated as a top-tier 2024 campaign.

House

CA-29: Rep. Tony Cardenas to Retire — Six-term California Rep. Tony Cardenas (D-Pacoima/Los Angeles) announced Monday that he will not seek re-election next year. Cardenas becomes the fifth California House member, and third from Los Angeles County, to voluntarily leave the House at the end of the current Congress.

Democrats will have little trouble holding this heavily Hispanic district (Hispanic population: 61.1 percent). The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates CA-29 as D+51, while Dave’s Redistricting App calculates a whopping 77.6D – 20.4R partisan lean. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks the district as the 28th safest seat in the Democratic Conference. Immediately upon Rep. Cardenas making his announcement, state Assemblywoman Luz Rivas (D-Arleta) announced that she will run for the newly open seat.

CA-47: Dead Heat General Election Polling — The Global Strategy Group just released the results of a late October internal poll conducted for Democrat Joanna Weiss in California’s open 47th Congressional District. The survey (Oct. 24-30; 500 likely CA-47 general election voters) finds both Weiss, an Orange County attorney, and state Sen. David Min (D-Irvine) embroiled in dead heats with former state Assemblyman Scott Baugh (R). Weiss would nip Baugh, 43-42 percent, while the Republican would hold the same edge over Min.

The pollsters tested the respondent’s reaction to Sen. Min being charged with a DWI violation where he registered a blood alcohol level twice the legal amount. A video of the arrest has also been released. The poll finds that 66 percent of the residents are “deeply concerned” about Sen. Min’s legal situation. His action, however, did not stop the California Democratic Party, at their state convention over the past weekend, from officially endorsing Sen. Min in the congressional race.

Baugh was a general election finalist in the 2022 election, losing to incumbent Rep. Katie Porter (D-Irvine) by a 51.7 – 48.3 percent count. With Rep. Porter now running for Senate, this open-seat race will be one of the most important in the country toward determining the next House majority.

UT-2: Special Election — The contest to choose a successor to resigned Rep. Chris Stewart (R-Farmington) concluded yesterday. Republican Celeste Maloy, Rep. Stewart’s formal legal counsel, and Democratic state Sen. Kathleen Riebe (D-Cottonwood Heights) were the two main contenders for the seat. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the district as R+23 and the Daily Kos Elections site ranks UT-2 as the 81st most vulnerable seat in the Republican Conference. Maloy prevailed, securing 58 percent of the vote to Riebe’s 34 percent. There were a handful of other candidates, all of whom registered in the very low single digits. (See results here: The Salt Lake Tribune)

This is a race the Republicans were predicted to win comfortably with a victory percentage in the high 50s. A lesser performance would suggest that translating positive polling into actual votes would continue to be somewhat elusive. That did not happen.

Endorsing NJ’s First Lady;
GOP Primary Challenge in SC-4; Washington’s Surprising Republican Contender; Louisiana Runoff Results

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Nov. 21, 2023

Senate

Tammy Murphy, New Jersey’s First Lady

New Jersey: Tammy Murphy Scoring Key Endorsements — Being New Jersey’s First Lady certainly has its perks. Since announcing her Senate challenge to indicted incumbent Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ) late last week, Tammy Murphy, the wife of incumbent Gov. Phil Murphy (D), already has secured four important county party endorsements.

In New Jersey, official county party endorsements mean more than in other states because the favored candidates received substantially better ballot positions in addition to having access to party resources. So far, the state’s two largest Democratic local party organizations, Bergen and Middlesex Counties, along with those in Camden and Hudson, have awarded Ms. Murphy their endorsements.

Additionally, Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-Wycoff), who is reportedly testing the waters for a 2025 gubernatorial race when Mr. Murphy is ineligible to seek re-election, became the state’s first sitting US House member to endorse the First Lady. Aside from Sen. Menendez, who has yet to say whether he will seek re-election, US Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown) is in what is already becoming a highly competitive statewide Democratic primary campaign.

House

SC-4: Rep. Timmons Facing Potentially Strong Primary — In 2022, South Carolina Rep. William Timmons (R-Greenville) found himself winning his renomination campaign with just 53 percent of the vote against what were thought to be minor opponents. A highly publicized extra-marital affair that included accusing the congressman of using his office resources to conceal his activity was largely the reason his primary was so close.

On Friday, state Rep. Adam Morgan (R-Taylors) announced that he will challenge Rep. Timmons in the June primary election. Since Morgan will be a stronger opponent than any of the three individuals who ran in 2022, the 2024 primary will be one worth watching.

Governor

Washington: PPP’s Surprise Poll — Public Policy Polling again conducted one of their regular Washington statewide surveys for the Northwest Progressive Institute and the results are eye-opening. According to the PPP study (Nov. 14-15; 750 registered Washington voters; multiple sampling techniques), former Congressman Dave Reichert (R) and Attorney General Bob Ferguson (D) are tied with 31 percent support apiece.

The shocker comes when the pollsters queried the respondents about who they would support in a general election assuming that both Reichert and Ferguson advance from the all-party jungle primary into the November election. On the ballot test, Reichert enjoyed a 46-44 percent lead over AG Ferguson. It is an astonishing result in that a Republican would post any kind of an advantage in Washington, one of the most Democratic states in the Union.

States

Louisiana: Runoff Election Results — After electing a new governor outright in the Nov. 14 election as Governor-Elect Jeff Landry (R) was able to secure majority support, Republicans finished the 2023 statewide elections with a landslide sweep. The GOP won the secretary of state, attorney general, and state treasurer’s office with between 65 and 67 percent of the vote. Former Congressman John Fleming (R) returns to elective office with his victory as State Treasurer.

Turnout was extremely low with almost 670,000 votes cast, which is just 44 percent of the total participation figure from the last statewide runoff in 2019. In that election, however, the governor’s race was being decided. The lack of the governor and lieutenant governor being forced into runoffs is the obvious reason turnout was down by such a large proportion.

New Hampshire Presidential Primary Remains 1st; NJ First Lady Announces; Arkansas Candidate Filing Closes; VA-5 Candidate Emerges

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Nov. 17, 2023

President

New Hampshire: Presidential Primary Finally Scheduled — New Hampshire Secretary of State David Scanlan announced that the state’s “first-in-the-nation” presidential primary will be scheduled for Jan. 23, 2024. There is little surprise associated with this date. To remain as the first primary state and comply with New Hampshire election law — Iowa still votes earlier (Jan. 15), but they feature caucus voting — Jan. 23 became the state’s only choice.

The Nevada primary is Feb. 6, and New Hampshire law, which gives the Secretary of State sole authority to schedule and move the election to prevent another domain from jumping to the front, requires the primary to be at least one week before any other state. Thus, Jan. 23, in holding with their Tuesday voting tradition, was the secretary’s only viable option.

President Joe Biden will not participate in the New Hampshire primary because the state would not agree to the new Democratic National Committee schedule. Rep. Dean Phillips (D-MN) will be on the Democratic ballot, however, and most of the party’s state leadership is organizing a write-in campaign to support President Biden.

Senate

New Jersey: State’s First Lady Announces for Senate — Tammy Murphy (D), wife of New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy (D), officially declared her candidacy to oppose indicted Sen. Bob Menendez (D) in next year’s Democratic primary. Though most believe Sen. Menendez will not seek re-election, there has been no such confirmation from the Menendez camp.

Ms. Murphy should be regarded as a long shot to win the party nomination. Immediately upon Sen. Menendez’s indictment becoming public, US Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown) announced his challenge to Menendez, and he has already established a large lead in polling and fundraising. Conversely, Ms. Murphy is a first-time political candidate.

House

Arkansas: 2024 Candidate Filing Closes — The Arkansas ballot is now set. With the candidate filing deadline now past, we’ll look forward to seeing one contested congressional primary election on Super Tuesday, March 5. The presidential primary will be held that day, and with no Senate seat on the Arkansas ballot this year, the four congressional seats become the state’s only other federal elections.

In three districts, the general election candidates are now set. In the eastern 1st District, veteran Rep. Rick Crawford (R-Jonesboro) will run for an eighth term against Iraq War veteran Randy Govens (D). Five-term Rep. French Hill (R-Little Rock) will face retired Army Col. Marcus Jones (D) in the Little Rock-anchored 2nd CD. Fourth District incumbent Bruce Westerman (R-Hot Springs) will be tasked with defending his seat against Democratic attorney Risie Howard.

The only primary contest among the congressional districts comes in the state’s western 3rd District where state Sen. Clint Penzo (R-Tontitown) will oppose seven-term Rep. Steve Womack (R-Rogers). It remains to be seen if this race develops into a major challenge. Republicans will be favored to again retain all four of the Natural State’s congressional districts.

VA-5: Rep. Good Challenged for Renomination — Two-term Virginia Rep. Bob Good (R-Lynchburg), one of the outspoken Freedom Caucus members who was a leader in the move to oust Speaker Kevin McCarthy, will have a renomination challenge next year.

John McGuire III, a state Delegate first elected in 2017 who then won a state Senate seat last week in unopposed fashion, filed a congressional campaign committee with the Federal Election Commission on Wednesday. McGuire, a retired Navy SEAL, ran for Congress once before, losing in the former 7th District’s 2020 Republican nominating convention. State Delegate Nick Freitas, who defeated McGuire that year, would then lose a close battle to Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Glen Ellen) in the general election.

Rep. Good was first elected to the Campbell County Board of Supervisors in 2015. He defeated then-US Rep. Denver Riggleman (R) in a district convention that his key supporters controlled. Assuming Rep. Good is as strong with the local Republican Party as he was during his first election campaign, it would be very difficult for McGuire to upset him within such a favorable venue.