By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Jan. 23, 2025
Electorate
President Donald Trump / Photo by Gage Skidmore
In the Senate races, ticket splitting was slightly more prevalent. A total of 88.2 percent of the Senate electorates voted straight ticket. For this calculation, the two Senators elected as Independents but who caucus with the Democrats, Sens. Angus King (I-ME) and Bernie Sanders (I-VT), are counted in the Democratic column.
The electorates from a total of 13 CDs voted for President Donald Trump and then turned around and chose a Democratic Congressman. Just three congressional electorates voted Republican for the House after supporting former Vice President Kamala Harris.
The information comes from a Kyle Kondik article for The Center for Politics at the University of Virginia. He cites district calculations relating to the presidential and US House contests from Drew Savicki of Election Twitter.
Of the 13 Trump districts that voted Democratic for the House, two are in northern California and another pair lie in south Texas.
In northern California, while then-Rep. John Duarte (R) was losing his Modesto anchored district to Democrat Adam Gray by just 187 votes, which proved the closest House contest in the country, President Trump notched a 51-46 percent victory. Just to the north, in the Stockton anchored 9th CD, Rep. Josh Harder (D-Turlock) was re-elected with a 52-48 percent margin even though Trump recorded a victory spread of approximately 1.5 percentage points.
Turning to the Rio Grande Valley, while indicted Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo) was winning an 11th term with a 53-47 percent margin in his district that stretches from San Antonio to the US-Mexican border, Trump won with a slightly larger 53-46 percent vote spread.
To the east in the Brownsville-anchored 34th District, Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-McAllen) defeated former Rep. Mayra Flores (R) 51-49 percent, while President Trump expanded his margin to 52-47 percent; this, in a district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as D+17. In the past two elections, however, the 34th has voted more Republican, so we can expect a rating adjustment for this particular district.
The other Democrats who won their individual elections even though Trump was winning in their districts are: Reps. Jared Golden (ME-2), Kristen McDonald Rivet (MI-8), Nellie Pou (NJ-9), Gabe Vasquez (NM-2), Don Davis (NC-1), Susie Lee (NV-3), Tom Suozzi (NY-3), Marcy Kaptur (OH-9), and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (WA-3).
The three Republican victories that flipped from Harris to a Republican House candidate came in GOP incumbent seats. Reps. Don Bacon (NE-2), Mike Lawler (NY-17), and Brian Fitzpatrick (PA-1) all won re-election to the House even though Trump failed to carry their districts.
In the 2020 election, there were also 16 electorates that voted split ticket for President and US House, but the complexion is different.
Those districts that voted for Joe Biden and a Republican House member in 2020 and switched to Trump in 2024 while continuing to support a GOP House candidate are: AZ-1 (Rep. David Schweikert) and CA-22 (Rep. David Valadao).
Those that voted for Trump and a Democratic House contender in 2020 but returned to a Republican-Republican ticket in ’24 are: AZ-2 (Rep. Eli Crane-R/formerly Rep. Tom O’Halleran-D), IA-3 (Rep. Zach Nunn-R/formerly Rep. Cindy Axne-D), and PA-8 (Rep. Rob Bresnahan-R/formerly Rep. Matt Cartwright-D). Within this latter group, Rep. Cartwright was defeated in the 2024 election. Reps. O’Halleran and Axne lost their seats in 2022.
As you can see, the vast majority of the electorate still tends to vote straight party, and particularly so in presidential election years. It remains to be seen if we will see a pattern shift coming in 2026.
