By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Dec. 10, 2024
Senate
Vice President-Elect and current Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance.
The appointment conversation originally centered around the two individuals who were viewed as the leading candidates to assume the Senate seat — Lt. Gov. Jon Husted and Attorney General David Yost.
Both men were gearing up for a gubernatorial run to replace incumbent Gov. Mike DeWine (R) who is ineligible to run for a third term. Therefore, it appeared that the governor appointing one to the Senate would avoid a bruising 2026 Republican gubernatorial primary and give the GOP a strong interim senator well positioned to hold the seat in succeeding elections. Such an easy solution, however, is no longer probable.
Both Husted and Yost have said they do not want the Senate appointment, and each is continuing to campaign for governor.
Now, the situation becomes even more complicated. Late last week, Secretary of State Frank LaRose, who entered the 2024 Republican Senate primary but fared poorly after leading in early polls, says he, too, is considering entering the governor’s race. LaRose has a base within the most conservative flank of the Ohio Republican Party, so he could be a factor in a crowded multi-candidate gubernatorial primary.
State Treasurer Robert Sprague and State Auditor Keith Faber are two more Republican statewide officials whose names have been mentioned in reference to the governor’s race. Others include Rep. Warren Davidson (R-Troy) and former congressman and statewide candidate Jim Renacci. It is unclear if Gov. DeWine is considering any of these latter individuals as possible Senate appointees.
Though the Senate appointment would be a gift to whoever becomes the interim incumbent, it is not without strings attached. While the individual would be guaranteed two years in the Senate, he or she would have to run to serve the balance of the term in 2026, and again in 2028 assuming the senator would want to run for the full six-year term. This means despite being handed the Senate seat, the individual would be forced into full campaign and fundraising mode for four years.
In the governor’s race, the eventual Republican nominee, after winning what promises to be a difficult primary, would not have a free ride in the general election. Democrats have formidable potential candidates and will certainly make a major run in the 2026 general election campaign.
Potential Democratic gubernatorial candidates included defeated Sen. Sherrod Brown who, in losing to Republican Bernie Moreno, raised more than $103 million for his re-election bid, the second highest of all US Senate candidates.
Other Democrats said to be considering the governor’s race include former congressman and 2022 Senate candidate Tim Ryan, State Supreme Court Justice and ex-Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, and mayors Aftab Pureval (D-Cincinnati), Andy Ginther (D-Columbus), and Justin Bibb (D-Cleveland).
Sen. Vance has not yet indicated when he plans to resign, but obviously he must do so before he takes the oath of office as vice president. Therefore, the Senate appointment drama will likely continue well into next month and likely very close to the presidential inauguration, which is scheduled for Jan. 20.
Expect Gov. DeWine to quickly announce his choice soon after Sen. Vance resigns. It would not be in the state of Ohio or the Republican Party’s interest to keep the Senate seat vacant for long.
Therefore, it’s very possible we will see a joint announcement when Vance resigns, which includes the vice president-elect officially leaving the Senate and the introduction of the interim replacement.
