Tag Archives: No Labels Party

Ramaswamy Identifies VP Choice;
No Second Primary in Georgia; New Candidate in CA-25; Republicans Endorse Rep. Porter (D) Challenger

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, May 9, 2023

President

2024 presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy identifies running mate. / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Vivek Ramaswamy: Identifies VP Choice — In the unlikely event that businessman Vivek Ramaswamy wins the Republican presidential nomination, we will have the first bipartisan presidential ticket. Ramaswamy just announced that he would choose Robert F. Kennedy Jr., currently challenging President Biden for the Democratic Party nomination, as his running mate.

The idea, meaning a bipartisan ticket, is something similar to what the No Labels Party would craft if they can recruit a presidential ticket. Speculation abounds that Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) could eventually become the No Labels presidential nominee in lieu of him embarking upon an uphill battle for re-election.

Georgia: No Second Primary — Earlier in the year, the Democratic National Committee adopted a new primary voting schedule that moved Georgia and Michigan into the pre-Super Tuesday group, bounced Iowa, made South Carolina first, and added Nevada to New Hampshire’s early primary date. With the announcement on Friday, Georgia will not be going along with the plan, and it’s states and not the political parties that have the ultimate decision-making power in this regard.

Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger (R) declared that the state’s presidential primary will be held on March 12, and not Feb. 13 as the DNC wanted. The decision is not a surprise. With the Republicans not going along with the Democrats’ pre-Super Tuesday calendar change, it was always highly unlikely that Georgia or New Hampshire would accommodate the DNC. Michigan, by vote of the legislature and agreement from Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D), did comply.

Seeing that the Republicans were not moving and thinking that a Republican governor and legislature would schedule and finance two separate primary elections in order to accommodate the Democrats was never a reasonable supposition, and now it is official that Georgia won’t. The task of convincing a Republican governor and legislature to pay for the scheduling whims associated with a non-competitive Democratic nomination system was clearly a bridge too far. Expect New Hampshire soon to follow Georgia’s lead.

As a result, the Georgia stand alone presidential primary will be held one week after Super Tuesday. The regular primary election for every other office is scheduled for May 21, 2024, with a runoff date of June 19 for those races where no Peach State candidate exceeds the 50 percent majority mark.

House

CA-25: Second Candidate Comes Forward to Oppose Rep. Ruiz — Six-term California Rep. Raul Ruiz (D-Indio) has drawn his second 2024 opponent. Former state Assembly candidate Ian Weeks (R) joins businesswoman Cici Truman (R) in the all-party jungle primary scheduled for Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. Neither candidate is likely to be a major threat to Rep. Ruiz, but it is indicative of a California Republican Party potentially wanting to contest more Democratic seats in the state, building upon their success in like districts during the 2022 election. In that year, Republican candidates outperformed the redistricting map by four seats.

Rep. Ruiz’s seat changed significantly in redistricting. Instead of a 36th District that was fully contained within Riverside County, his new 25th CD, along with annexing the far eastern section of San Bernardino County, includes Imperial County. This entity houses about half of the California-Mexico border, including the border crossing point at Calexico. Previously, Rep. Juan Vargas (D-San Diego) represented this area.

The new Ruiz constituency, before which he recorded 57 percent of the vote in the 2022 election, contains 24 percent of people he had previously not represented. With the FiveThirtyEight data organization rating of D+12, and Dave’s Redistricting App’s partisan lean calculation of 56.4D-42.0R, Rep. Ruiz should have little concern, but the activity here potentially signals budding signs of a more competitive Golden State GOP.

CA-47: Republicans Endorse — The California Republican Party has already voted to officially endorse 2022 congressional candidate and ex-state Assemblyman Scott Baugh (R) for the open 47th CD that Rep. Katie Porter (D-Irvine) is vacating to run for the Senate. Baugh, also a former chairman of the Orange County Republican Party, scored 48.3 percent against Rep. Porter in the 2022 election though outspent by almost $26 million.

The 47th could become highly competitive as an open seat. Fully contained in Orange County, the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as D+6, which is better from a GOP perspective than three of the seats their candidates won in the last election. Dave’s Redistricting App calculates the partisan lean at a competitive 52.5D-45.5R.

Additionally, Democrats have had some recent candidate problems here. Former US Rep. Harley Rouda, who had announced his candidacy, has already withdrawn due to health problems. State Sen. David Min (D-Irvine), largely believed to be the leading candidate, has just been cited for a serious drunk driving violation. CA-47 will be a race to watch next year.

Trump/DeSantis vs. Biden; Lake Likely to Enter Ariz. Senate Race; Feinstein Resignation Drumbeat Intensifies; Whitmer’s Sister Declares Candidacy

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, April 25, 2023

President

WSJ Poll: Trump in Primary; DeSantis in General — We continue to see more polling evidence that former President Donald Trump has an early lock on the 2024 Republican nomination, but Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis fares better in a general election pairing with President Biden.

The just-released Wall Street Journal poll (conducted by Fabrizio Lee & Associates; April 11-17; 1,500 US Adults; 600 likely Republican primary voters) finds Trump holding a 51-38 percent lead among the national Republican polling sample in a hypothetical one-on-one pairing with Gov. DeSantis. Within the field of 12 announced and potential candidates, Trump leads with 48 percent as compared to the Florida governor’s 24 percent. Former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley receives only five percent support, and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy registers two percent. This is a major change from the December WSJ poll when DeSantis led Trump in the head-to-head pairing, 52-38 percent.

In the general election, however, Gov. DeSantis outpolls President Joe Biden 48-45 percent. If Trump were the Republican nominee, the margin becomes a mirror image as President Biden would claim the same 48-45 percent edge.

Senate

Former Arizona newscaster Kari Lake (R)

Arizona: Kari Lake Signals Senate Candidacy — Former Arizona gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake (R), who is still fighting voter fraud lawsuits over her close 2022 loss to current Gov. Katie Hobbs (D), says she is likely to enter the open US Senate contest unless the courts install her as governor. Since the latter happening is highly unlikely at this point, we can count on seeing Lake back in a 2024 Grand Canyon State election campaign.

Already in the GOP primary is Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb. He and Lake would likely split the “Trump lane” within the Arizona GOP electorate. This may portend well for another Republican candidate occupying the pro-business/free enterprise outside lane. The Arizona primary is scheduled for Aug. 6, 2024.

The general election is very likely to become a three-way race with the eventual Republican nominee, probably Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) on the Democratic line, and incumbent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I) either running as an Independent or becoming the nominee of the No Labels Party. The NLP has qualified for the ballot in the state, but the Arizona Democratic Party has filed a lawsuit challenging its status.

California: Sen. Feinstein Resignation Drumbeat Intensifies — According to a Twitter post and other sources, a group of 60 progressive left organizations have coalesced under a letter to California Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) asking her to resign. Sen. Feinstein, who is the longest-serving Democrat in the current Senate, has already announced that she will not seek re-election. Suffering from shingles, Sen. Feinstein is back in California and not attending session. This puts the Democratic conference down a seat, so pressure is being exerted on her to leave early so Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) can make a replacement appointment. At this point, Sen. Feinstein says she will serve the balance of her final term.

House

NY-17: Gov. Whitmer’s Sister Declares for Congress — Katonah-Lewisboro School Board Trustree Liz Gereghty (D) announced that she will compete for the Democratic nomination with the hope of challenging freshman New York Rep. Mike Lawler (R-Pearl River) next year. Gereghty is Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s (D) sister.

We can expect a crowded Democratic primary that could possibly include former US Rep. Mondaire Jones who left the Westchester County-anchored district to run unsuccessfully for a New York City seat. Rep. Lawler then upset Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) chairman Sean Patrick Maloney in November. Maloney has not ruled out a comeback attempt, but most believe him returning is a remote possibility.

With NY-17 rated as D+7 from the FiveThirtyEight data organization and Dave’s Redistricting App calculating partisan lean of 56.6D – 41.3R, we can count on seeing this CD as a top Democratic conversion target in 2024 and becoming a national congressional campaign.

Arizona Sheriff May Announce for Senate; Senate Candidates Poised in Nevada; CA-27 Candidates Emerging

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, April 11, 2023

Senate

Arizona’s Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb (R)

Arizona: Republicans May Soon Have a Candidate — Political reports in Arizona suggest that Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb (R) may announce his US Senate candidacy as early as this week. Most of the attention so far has been upon whether 2022 gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake would enter the race. She has yet to say whether another campaign is in her immediate plans.

Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) is an announced candidate, and has been leading in the most recent polling. Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I) appears to be preparing to seek a second term, but has not yet said whether she will run on the No Labels Party ticket after leaving the Democrats. Count upon the Arizona Senate race again becoming one of the top races in the country next year.

Nevada: Rosen Raising; Republicans Deciding — Nevada political sources indicate that both former GOP US Senate candidate Sam Brown and defeated 2022 congressional nominee April Becker may both soon announce 2024 US Senate campaigns.

Brown became more of a factor in the 2022 Senate primary than originally expected due to impressive fundraising, but still lost to former state Attorney General Adam Laxalt who would then lose a close general election contest to Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D). Becker lost a 52-48 percent decision to Rep. Susie Lee (D-Las Vegas) in the 3rd Congressional District battle.

Meanwhile, incumbent Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) has been hard at work on the fundraising trail. Her campaign indicates the senator will report $2.4 million raised for the quarter ending March 31, with more than $6 million cash-on-hand. Expect another close race here, but Sen. Rosen must be considered the favorite to win a second term.

House

CA-27: Two Democrats Making Moves — Southern California US Rep. Mike Garcia (R-Santa Clarita) won his most impressive victory in 2022, a 53-47 percent victory over former state Assemblywoman Christy Smith (D) in a district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as D+8, and Dave’s Redistricting App calculates the district partisan lean at 53.7D – 44.3R. With Smith now losing three times, Democrats are looking toward other options. We can again expect this to become a national congressional campaign.

Former Virgin Galactic CEO and ex-NASA chief of staff George Whitesides (D), who was the first to announce his candidacy earlier this year, is reportedly going to disclose more than $500,000 raised for the 2024 race in the March 31 Federal Election Commission quarterly disclosure report and another $500,000 self-contributed.

Franky Carrillo (D), who was wrongly imprisoned for 22 years for a murder later proved that he did not commit, and was then awarded a $19 million settlement from the state of California, is expected to formally launch his campaign later this month.

High Possibility Sen. Sinema to Join “No Labels” Party in Ariz.; Hutchinson Announces; Justice With Big Lead in WVa; New Candidates in AZ-1, FL-11

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, April 6, 2023

President

Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ)

No Labels Party: AZ Democrats Sue to Disqualify — The No Labels Party is attempting to qualify for the ballot in as many states as possible, and has already done so in Alaska, Arizona, Colorado, and Oregon. The Arizona Democratic Party, however, has filed a lawsuit attempting to disqualify the No Labels entity under the reasoning that Democratic Secretary of State Adrian Fontes was in error for certifying the organization because it doesn’t meet all of the legal qualifications. The ADP claims that No Labels has not filed with the Federal Election Commission nor have they disclosed their donors, both requirements for political parties under Arizona election law.

The Arizona Democrats are particularly concerned about No Labels because a candidate under this banner could potentially draw Democratic votes away from President Biden while further attracting a large percentage of Democratic support for Independent and Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, a former Democrat, now an Independent. Arizona is again expected to deliver very close statewide election results in 2024, as its electorate has done in the last two elections.

There is a strong possibility that Sen. Sinema could run as the No Labels Senate candidate. Doing so would allow her to qualify for the ballot with far fewer petition signatures than required to secure an Independent ballot line. Under Arizona procedure, an Independent candidate would be required to submit 45,000 valid registered voter petition signatures. A new party’s candidate would see such a signature requirement drop to less than 1,300.

Asa Hutchinson: Announces Candidacy — Former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson (R), who has repeatedly come out in opposition to former President Donald Trump, announced that he will become a presidential candidate. Though Hutchinson would be considered a “Never Trumper,” his jumping into the race could well help the former president because even small numbers of votes deflect from whoever becomes Trump’s top opponent, likely Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, will allow the former to score a plurality victory.

Senate

West Virginia: New GOP Primary Poll Finds Gov. Justice with Big Lead — The National Public Affairs survey research firm released the results of their new West Virginia US Senate Republican primary poll. The study (March 14-17; 360 likely West Virginia Republican primary voters and Independents likely to vote in the Republican primary; live interview & text), unsurprisingly finds Gov. Jim Justice leading Attorney General Patrick Morrisey (R) and US Rep. Alex Mooney (R-Charles Town) with a 43-21-10 percent count. If the race were only between Gov. Justice and Rep. Mooney, the governor would hold a 55-24 percent advantage.

It is likely that Morrisey will likely opt for the open governor’s race instead of taking on Justice in another Senate primary. In 2018, Morrisey held Sen. Joe Manchin (D) to a 50-46 percent re-election victory after easily winning the Republican primary. A Senate announcement from Gov. Justice is expected soon.

House

AZ-1: Democrats Rebound with New Candidate — Late last week, 2022 congressional nominee Jevin Hodge (D), who held Arizona Rep. David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills) to a tight 50.4 – 49.6 percent victory margin, announced that he would not return for a re-match. State Rep. Amish Shah (D-) said Monday that he will run.

The newly-configured 1st District electorate is voting much more Democratic than the FiveThirtyEight R+7 rating would suggest. Though Rep. Schweikert barely won, President Joe Biden, Sen. Mark Kelly (D), and Gov. Katie Hobbs (D) all carried the 1st district in their 2020 and 2022 elections, albeit by similarly slim margins. Expect AZ-1 to be a top-tier Democratic conversion seat in the next election.

FL-11: Rep. Webster to Face Primary Challenge — Former Florida state Rep. Anthony Sabatini (R), who finished a distant second to now-Rep. Cory Mills (R-New Smyrna Beach) in the open 7th District Republican primary last year, announced that he will challenge veteran Rep. Dan Webster (R-Clermont) next year in the neighboring 11th District. Sabatini will be a long-shot contender, but he will likely be able to attract sufficient resources to become competitive.