Tag Archives: New York

Rep. Budd Continues to Lead in NC; Winner Finally Declared in IL-13

By Jim Ellis — July 7, 2022

Senate

US Rep. Ted Budd (R-Advance)

North Carolina: Rep. Budd Continues to Lead — The Trafalgar Group recently tested the North Carolina Senate race (June 29-July 1; 1,068 likely North Carolina general election voters; multiple sampling techniques) and, like all but one pollster since the May 17 primary, finds US Rep. Ted Budd (R-Advance) leading former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Cheri Beasley (D) by a slim margin, 48-45 percent, in this case. This is the fifth released post-primary survey, and all show both candidates in the 40s. Rep. Budd leads in four of the five published polls, with an average edge of 4.5 percentage points. Beasley’s only advantage, 44-40 percent, came in the June 8-12 Survey USA poll.

House

IL-6: Ex-Rep. Lipinski Considers — Former Chicago area US Rep. Dan Lipinski (D) said yesterday he is considering entering the 6th District race as a “centrist Independent” either in this election or the next. Rep. Lipinski lost the 2020 Democratic primary to progressive left challenger Marie Newman who was then defeated in this year’s 6th District Democratic primary. Lipinksi would ostensibly challenge the victor from that nomination campaign, Rep. Sean Casten (D-Downers Grove). To qualify as an Independent, Lipinski would have to submit valid petition signatures from 5,000 registered district voters by July 25.

His entry this year is unlikely. Running as an Independent wouldn’t give him much of a chance to win, but he could draw enough support to throw the seat to Republican Keith Pekau, the Orland Park mayor who won the 6th District GOP nomination. The latter outcome would be a real possibility since the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates this district as a D+6, meaning it could potentially flip in a wave Republican year.

IL-13: Republican Winner Declared — It is now official that conservative educator Regan Deering has won the close Republican primary campaign in new District 13. She defeated former federal prosecutor Jesse Reising by a tight 35-33 percent margin. She now advances to the general election to face former Obama Administration official Nikki Budzinski (D).

The 13th is a newly created open seat that stretches in the form of a snake from the Champaign/Urbana area through Decatur and Springfield before ending in East St. Louis. FiveThirtyEight rates the seat D+7. The Dave’s Redistricting App calculates the partisan lean as 53.5 – 41.8 percent in favor of the Democrats, so it is obvious that Budzinski begins the general election campaign as the favorite to win in November. The new 13th is the by-product of Reps. Mary Miller (R-Oakland) and Rodney Davis (R-Taylorville) being paired in the new 15th CD.

NY-19: Democrat Still Trails, but Closer — Special election Democratic candidate Pat Ryan, the Ulster County Executive, just countered an earlier Triton Research poll, which posted Dutchess County Executive Marc Molinaro (R) to a substantial 52-38 percent lead. The Ryan internal Public Policy Polling survey (June 29-30; 581 NY-19 general election voters) finds Molinaro holding a 43-40 percent edge.

The PPP poll is confusing in that it tests NY-19’s general election voters. The Ryan-Molinaro election, however, is a special election in the current 19th CD to fill the balance of Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado’s (D) final months of the US House term to which he was elected in 2020.

For the general election, regardless of whether he wins or loses the special election, Ryan is running in the new 18th CD. There, he will face Republican state Assemblyman Colin Schmitt (R-New Windsor). The NY-19 special election is scheduled for Aug. 23, concurrent with the regular election primary. Thus, Ryan will be running for two different House seats on the same day.

Casten and Miller Win in Illinois; Colorado Statewide Races Set;
More Primary Results News

By Jim Ellis — June 29, 2022

Primary Results

Rep. Sean Casten (D-Downers Grove)

Illinois: Reps. Casten and Miller Win — The big news from last night’s primary election surrounded the two paired districts. In the Chicago suburbs, Rep. Sean Casten (D-Downers Grove), who unexpectedly lost his 17-year-old daughter just two weeks ago, scored a landslide win over fellow Rep. Marie Newman (D-La Grange) in the new 6th District that contained more of the latter member’s current turf.

Freshman Rep. Mary Miller (R-Oakland)

In the downstate Republican 15th CD, freshman Rep. Mary Miller (R-Oakland), armed with an endorsement and rally appearance from former President Donald Trump, recorded a decisive 57-43 percent over veteran Rep. Rodney Davis (R-Taylorville). Davis will now see his congressional career draw to a close after serving what will be ten years in the House.

The Democratic pairing occurred in order to create a new Chicago-anchored Hispanic district. State Rep. Delia Ramirez (D-Chicago) easily won the Democratic nomination in this seat, and becomes the prohibitive favorite for the general election. State Sen. Darren Bailey (R-Louisville) won an outright majority with 57 percent of the vote opposite five opponents in the governor’s primary. He advances to the general election to oppose incumbent J. B. Pritzker (D). Conservative activist Kathy Salvi won the Republican Senate nomination, and now faces a likely insurmountable opponent in Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D).

Colorado: Statewide Races Set — As expected, University of Colorado Regent Heidi Ganahl captured the Republican gubernatorial nomination with a 53 percent majority over GOP nominating convention winner Greg Lopez. In the Senate contest, as most predicted, construction company owner Joe O’Dea defeated state Rep. Ron Hanks (R-Penrose) with just under 55 percent of the vote. Like Lopez, Rep. Hanks also won the Republican nominating convention endorsement.

The two will advance to the general election against Gov. Jared Polis (D) and Sen. Michael Bennet (D). Neither incumbent was opposed for re-nomination and both are now heavy favorites to win re-election in November.

MS-3 and 4: Guest Wins; Palazzo Loses — As predicted, despite a scare in the primary election, Mississippi 3rd District Rep. Michael Guest (R-Brandon) easily won re-nomination last night in the Mississippi congressional runoff election. He topped challenger Michael Cassidy with two-thirds of more than 70,000 votes that were cast in last night’s election. Rep. Guest will now have an easy run in the general election.

Rep. Steven Palazzo (R-Biloxi) was not so fortunate in his southern Mississippi 4th CD. He failed to overcome Jackson County Sheriff Mike Ezell and lost his seat in a 54-46 percent count. Palazzo becomes the eighth House incumbent to be denied re-nomination and the fourth who lost to a challenger that was not a fellow incumbent forced into a paired district. Sheriff Ezell is now the heavy favorite to win the seat in November.

NE-1: Flood Wins Special — Another special congressional election was held last night, and this result ended in a closer final tally than originally expected. Nebraska state Sen. Mike Flood (R-Norfolk), a media company owner, claimed the seat with a 53-47 percent victory over fellow state Sen. Patty Pansing Brooks (D-Lincoln) in a district the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+17.

Flood will be sworn into the House upon official election certification. He will replace convicted Rep. Jeff Fortenberry (R-Lincoln). Rep-Elect Flood and Sen. Pansing Brooks will see each other again. Both are the party nominees for the regular general election in November.

New York: Hochul vs. Zeldin — The New York statewide contests also ended as expected. Gov. Kathy Hochul (D), who ascended from the lieutenant governor’s position when Andrew Cuomo (D) resigned, easily defeated NYC Public advocate Jumaane Williams and US Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-Glen Cove), 68-19-13 percent. Williams was unopposed for the Working Families ballot line, so he will advance into the general election despite his loss last night.

The Republican battle was a bit closer. US Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-Shirley; East Long Island) topped Andrew Giuliani, son of ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani, in a 44-23 percent split. Former Westchester County executive and 2018 gubernatorial nominee Rob Astorino and businessman Harry Wilson recorded 18 and 15 percent, respectively. Gov. Hochul begins the general election as the decided favorite.
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Conflicting Polls in NC;
Fetterman Up in PA; Gubernatorial Challenger Drops Out in MA

By Jim Ellis — June 27, 2022

Senate

Cheri Beasley (left) holds a 44-40 percent edge over Rep. Ted Budd (R-Advance) in a recent poll in the open North Carolina Senate campaign.

North Carolina: Countering Poll — Last week, we reported on a Survey USA poll (June 8-12; 650 likely North Carolina voters; online) that gave Democratic former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Cheri Beasley a 44-40 percent edge over US Rep. Ted Budd (R-Advance) in the open North Carolina Senate campaign. This week, the Cygnal polling firm released its latest data (June 17-19; 600 likely North Carolina voters; live interview & text) that projects a different conclusion. These results show Rep. Budd holding a virtual mirror image 45-40 percent lead. Of those definitely voting for one candidate or the other, Rep. Budd leads that response, 38-31 percent.

Pennsylvania: Fetterman Up in Two New Polls — Two surveys, a combined poll from Republican firm Fabrizio Ward & Associates and the Democratic Impact Research entity (June 12-19; 1,382 likely Pennsylvania voters; live interview & text), and Suffolk University (June 10-13; 500 likely Pennsylvania voters; live interview), both find Democrat John Fetterman leading Republican Mehmet Oz even though the Democratic fundamentals in terms of direction of the country, views on the economy, and wanting their vote to be a message to Washington, are inconsistent with the support level for the party’s nominee. Fabrizio/Impact finds Fetterman’s advantage at 50-44 percent. Suffolk reveals a similar 46-37 percent split in Fetterman’s favor.

Wisconsin: Typical Close Polling — Pollsters haven’t fared too well in Wisconsin in recent election years. The last time Sen. Ron Johnson (R) was on the ballot in 2016, he led in just one of 30 public polls that were conducted that year. Now, we see Marquette Law School releasing new data projecting another close contest. According to their survey (June 14-20; 803 registered Wisconsin voters), Sen. Johnson would trail a pair of Democrats, Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes (D) and state Treasurer Sarah Godlewski, by two percentage points apiece, 44-46 percent and 43-45 percent, but lead Milwaukee Bucks basketball club executive Alex Lasry, 45-42 percent.

Within this same time frame during the 2016 election cycle, Marquette found former Sen. Russ Feingold (D) leading Sen. Johnson, 51-42 percent. Johnson won the 2016 election, 50-47 percent.

Governor

Massachusetts: Challenger Drops Out — State Sen. Sonia Chang-Diaz (D-Boston) announced last week that she is ending her gubernatorial bid, saying that she has no “path to victory.” This leaves Attorney General Maura Healey unopposed for the Democratic nomination. Considering a weak Republican field, it appears that AG Healey is now the prohibitive favorite to convert the Massachusetts governor’s office away from the Republicans. Incumbent Gov. Charlie Baker (R) chose not to seek a third term.

New York: Hochul Up Big; GOP Tight — Survey USA went into the field in New York to test both major party primaries in anticipation of the June 28 vote for the statewide candidates. The candidates running for state legislature and US House will have their primary on Aug. 23.

According to S-USA (June 15-20; 2,987 registered New York voters; 1,002 likely Democratic primary voters; 538 likely Republican primary voters; online), Gov. Kathy Hochul has a big lead in the Dem primary, 54-18-11 percent over Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-Glen Cove) and NYC Public Advocate Jumaane Williams. For the Republicans, US Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-Shirley; East Long Island) holds only a 25-23 percent edge over Andrew Giuliani, son of former NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani, while businessman Henry Wilson commands 13 percent support.

Pennsylvania: Mastriano Close — While the aforementioned two Pennsylvania surveys, (see Pennsylvania in Senate section above; a combined poll from Republican firm Fabrizio Ward & Associates and the Democratic Impact Research entity and Suffolk University), find Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D) topping Republican Mehmet Oz slightly beyond the polling margin of error, the governor’s contest is tighter. These same polls project Attorney General Josh Shapiro (D) holding a bare 49-46 percent edge in the Fabrizio/Impact poll over state Sen. Doug Mastriano (R-Fayetteville), and a similarly tight 44-40 percent lead in the Suffolk poll.

Britt Looks Solid in AL; Dems Drop from AK Race; Velazquez Endorses Rivera in NY-10

By Jim Ellis — June 21, 2022

Senate

Former Business Council of Alabama CEO Katie Britt

Alabama: Polls Find Britt Comfortably Ahead — The Alabama Republican runoff is scheduled for today, and former Business Council of Alabama president and CEO Katie Britt is poised to become the party nominee. Five polls from four pollsters conducted between June 6-16 with sample sizes between 400 and 1,000 find Britt with a support range between 50 and 58 percent, as Rep. Mo Brooks trails with a span between just 30-36 percent.

The pollsters are McLaughlin & Associates (two surveys), the University of Auburn at Montgomery, JMC Analytics, and Emerson College. Today’s GOP winner is a lock to claim the Senate seat in November. Sen. Richard Shelby is retiring.

House

AK-AL: Three Democrats Drop From Race — Saying that the at-large special primary election has made it clear that Democratic voters support ex-state Rep. Mary Peltola, state Rep. Adam Wool (D-Fairbanks), Kodiak Island Assemblyman Mike Milligan, and Anchorage Assemblyman Chris Constant have all ended their candidacies for the regular at-large House primary scheduled concurrently with Alaska’s special general election on Aug. 16. The move reduces the jungle primary field from 31 to 28 candidates.

The special general will feature, in order of primary finish, former governor and 2008 vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin (R), businessman Nick Begich III (R), surgeon and 2002 Democratic US Senate nominee Al Gross (I), and Peltola (D).

NY-10: Rep. Velazquez Endorses Against Rep. Jones — New York veteran Rep. Nydia Velazquez (D-Brooklyn), who currently represents about half of the territory in the state’s new open 10th District, announced on Friday that she is endorsing NYC Councilwoman Carlina Rivera in the Aug. 23 Democratic primary. The race features 15 Democrats, including US Rep. Mondaire Jones (D-Westchester County), ex-NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio, and state Assemblywoman Yuh-Line Niou.

Rep. Velazquez criticized Rep. Jones from seeking re-election in a new district an hour away from his current 17th CD. She said she doesn’t understand why he didn’t stay in the D+9 17th and seek re-election where his constituency lies. The Jones campaign responded in saying the congressman did not want to run in a member vs. member primary with Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee chair Sean Patrick Maloney (D-Cold Spring). The spokesperson did not indicate why Jones didn’t run in what is now an open 18th CD, which also contains a portion of the congressman’s current constituency.

OH-13: Conflicting Polls — Two political pollsters, the Remington Research Group and the Democratic research firm GQR released survey results of what should be a very tight general election campaign in the new Akron-anchored CD-13. Here, state Rep. Emilia Sykes (D-Akron) is competing against Republican nominee and attorney Madison Gesiotto Gilbert.

Both surveys were conducted in May but released on Friday. According to Remington (polling for US Term Limits; May 19-20; 500 likely OH-13 general election voters), Gilbert opens with a 46-37 percent lead. GQR has a different take. Their survey (May 13-31; 700 likely OH-13 voters with a 200-person over-sample of African Americans; live interview) projects that the two candidates are virtually tied with Rep. Sykes holding a 47-45 percent edge. This race is categorized a toss-up in a seat that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates R+2. Conversely, President Biden carried the new 13th by a 51-48 percent spread in 2020.

Trump’s Alabama Endorsement;
A Runoff in Oklahoma?

By Jim Ellis — June 15, 2022

Senate

Former Business Council of Alabama CEO Katie Britt

Alabama: Britt Leads, Gets Trump Endorsement — The new JMC Analytics poll (June 6-9; 630 likely Alabama Republican runoff voters; live interview & text) posts former Business Council of Alabama President & CEO Katie Britt to a large 51-39 percent lead over US Rep. Mo Brooks (R-Huntsville). Additionally, former President Trump endorsed Britt, thus coming 180 degrees in this race. Originally, he had publicly supported Rep. Brooks, only to rescind the endorsement prior to the primary.

Britt placed first in the May 24 primary, leading Rep. Brooks and third place finisher Mike Durant, 45-29-23 percent. The Republican runoff is scheduled for June 21.

Oklahoma: Rep. Mullin Continues to Lead — The Amber Integrated firm tested the upcoming Sooner State Republican primary for a host of statewide races (June 6-9; 400 likely Oklahoma Republican primary voters; live interview & text). In the US Senate special election, US Rep. Markwayne Mullin (R-Westville) continues to lead the Republican field, but will likely fall well short of obtaining majority support on June 28. Should the runoff be necessary, the election date will be Aug. 23.

The AI ballot test shows Rep. Mullin with a 38-19 percent lead over former state House Speaker T.W. Shannon. Former EPA Director and ex-Oklahoma Attorney General Scott Pruitt heads the second tier with six percent. State Sen. Nathan Dahm (R-Broken Arrow), ex-chief of staff to retiring Sen. Jim Inhofe, Luke Holland, and dietician Jessica Jean Garrison trail with five, four, and three percent, respectively. The eventual Republican nominee will be a heavy favorite in the special general, which will run concurrently with the regular general election. The ultimate winner will serve the remaining four years of Sen. Inhofe’s current term.

In the regular Senate election, incumbent James Lankford (R) holds a huge 68-12 percent lead over pastor Jason Lahmeyer and is headed to win outright on June 28. Sen. Lankford then becomes a prohibitive favorite to win a second full term in November.

Governor

Minnesota: New Survey Suggests Tight General Election — Democratic polling firm Change Research (June 3-5; 1,551 Minnesota general election voters; online) projects a close race between Gov. Tim Walz (D) and Republican Party-endorsed candidate Scott Jensen, a former state senator. The CR polling results find Gov. Walz posting only a two-point, 42-40 percent edge. While Jensen is the endorsed GOP candidate, he does face minor opposition in the Aug. 9 Republican primary.

New York: Gov. Hochul Staked to a Large Lead — Emerson College is reporting the results of its most recent New York statewide survey (June 9-10; 500 likely New York Democratic primary voters; 500 likely New York Republican primary voters; interactive voice response system, text, & online) that finds Gov. Kathy Hochul and US Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-Shirley) leading their respective primary election campaigns.

For the Democrats, Gov. Hochul’s advantage over US Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-Glen Cove) and NYC Public Advocate Jumaane Williams is 63-25-11 percent, as the trio battles for position before the June 28 statewide primary. On the Republican side, Rep. Zeldin records 40 percent support, ahead of former Westchester County Executive and 2018 gubernatorial nominee Rob Astorino (25 percent), businessman Harry Wilson (20 percent), and former Trump White House aide Andrew Giuliani, son of Rudy Giuliani (17 percent). Though Gov. Hochul appears strong for the general election, Republicans feel that they will be more competitive in this election year.

Oklahoma: Gov. Stitt Strong in Primary — The Amber Integrated firm also tested the governor’s Republican primary (June 6-9; 400 likely Oklahoma Republican primary voters; live interview & text). In this race, incumbent Kevin Stitt posts a 61-8 percent lead over retired police officer Mark Sherwood. Like Sen. Lankford, Gov. Stitt is poised to win re-nomination outright and then become a big favorite in the general election, probably against state Superintendent of Public Instruction Joy Hofmeister (D).

Laxalt, Lombardo, Looking Good in NV; Palin Should Be A Lock in AK

By Jim Ellis — June 14 2022

Senate

Former Attorney General Adam Laxalt leads among likely Nevada GOP primary voters.

Nevada: Laxalt Holding Comfortable Lead — As we move into the Nevada nomination vote today, OH Predictive Insights released a final pre-primary survey of the Senate Republican candidate field. The poll results (June 6-7; 525 likely Nevada GOP primary voters; live interview & text) show former Attorney General Adam Laxalt leading disabled Afghan War veteran Sam Brown by a 48-34 percent count. Laxalt has led the entire race, and his advantage margin, though not as robust as one might have expected, should well be enough to carry the party favorite to victory tomorrow night. The new Republican nominee will then face Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D) in the general election.

Ohio: Rep. Ryan Leads in New Survey — After the May 3 primary, Suffolk University was first in the field (May 22-23; 500 likely Ohio voters) and found Republican J.D. Vance leading US Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Warren/Youngstown) by a slight 42-39 percent spread. Now, a new study from Democratic pollster Grow Progress (conducted for the Innovation Ohio organization; May 30-June 3; 2,018 registered Ohio voters; online) finds Rep. Ryan holding a 44-41 percent edge. The Ohio electorate typically polls close and these surveys indicate that such a pattern continues in 2022. We can expect toss-up survey research results to continue well into October. At that point, a victory trend will develop for one candidate or the other.

House

AK-AL: Palin First of 48; Four Advance — Alaska held its first election under the state’s new top-four jungle primary format and though just over half of the votes are counted, it appears clear that former governor and 2008 vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin (R) will finish first. The special election is held because veteran Rep. Don Young (R-Ft. Yukon) unexpectedly passed away in March.

At this writing, Palin has recorded 29.8 percent of the vote within the huge field of 48 candidates. Republican Party-endorsed candidate, Nick Begich III, is second with 19.3 percent, followed by Dr. Al Gross (12.5 percent), the 2020 Democratic US Senate nominee who is running under the Non-Partisan label in this election. Democratic former state Rep. Mary Peltola, from the tribal Bethel region, appears in the best position to secure the fourth and final run-off position with her 7.5 percent vote total. She leads the fifth-place finisher, former US Interior Department Deputy Assistant Secretary Tara Sweeney (R), by just over two percentage points.

Twenty-five of the 48 candidates, including all top four finishers, also filed for the regular election. Six individuals, none of whom appear to be a major contender, filed only for the regular term. The jungle primary process for that election then begins again in a separate vote, also on Aug. 16.

NY-23: Republicans Choose Nominee — While New York Republican Party chairman Nick Langworthy will likely be the NY-23 party nominee for the regular election, the group of local county chairmen who have the power to choose the special election nominee have selected Steuben County Republican Party chairman Joe Sempolinski as the party standard bearer for the Aug. 23 special election to replace resigned Rep. Tom Reed (R-Corning).

Democrats have tabbed retired Air Force officer Max Della Pia for both the special election in the current 23rd CD and for the new 23rd in the regular election. According to the FiveThirtyEight data organization, the new NY-23 rates as R+23, so Langworthy is the clear long-term favorite. Sempolinski will not be a candidate in the regular election.

Governor

Michigan: James Craig to Run As Write-In Candidate — Former Detroit Police chief James Craig, who was disqualified from the ballot because of submitting a lack of valid petition signatures, said on Friday that he would launch a write-in campaign for the Republican nomination. With half the GOP field rejected for the same reason, the race against Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) has radically turned.

Nevada: Sheriff Lombardo Leads with Plurality Support — The aforementioned OH Predictive Insights poll (see Senate section above) also tested the GOP race for governor. Today’s primary winner will then challenge Democratic Gov. Steve Sisolak.

The OH poll results project Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo leading attorney and former professional boxer Joey Gilbert, ex-US senator and representative, Dean Heller, and North Las Vegas Mayor John Lee by a 34-21-10-10 percent margin. Nevada has no runoff law, so the top vote-getter — most likely Sheriff Lombardo — will claim the Republican nomination.

GOP Dogfight Continues in Arizona; Rep. Cori Bush’s Competitive Primary

By Jim Ellis — June 10, 2022

Senate

Arizona: GOP Dogfight Continues — A new Data Orbital poll (June 1-3; 550 likely Arizona Republican primary voters) again finds a three-way virtual tie for the party’s US Senate nomination that will be decided on Aug. 2. In the last 10 published polls, all three top candidates, Attorney General Mark Brnovich and businessmen Blake Masters, who now has former President Trump’s endorsement, as well as Jim Lamon have led in at least two polls apiece.

The latest Data Orbital results also suggests that any of the three can win the primary. In their ballot test results, Lamon leads AG Brnovich and Masters, 20-18-15 percent. The eventual winner will challenge Sen. Mark Kelly (D) in what promises to be a competitive general election campaign.

House

Freshman Missouri Rep. Cori Bush (D-St. Louis) has a competitive race on her hands.

MO-1: Rep. Bush’s Tenuous Lead — A new internal campaign poll suggests that controversial freshman Missouri Rep. Cori Bush (D-St. Louis) has a competitive race on her hands as the candidates look ahead to the Aug. 2 state primary. State Sen. Steve Roberts (D-St. Louis) released a Lincoln Park Strategies poll (May 24-29; 500 MO-1 registered voters; live interview) that finds the congresswoman leading by only a 36-19 percent spread over the poll sponsor, and that obviously places the incumbent far below the 50 percent threshold. Three other Democrats are also on the ballot, suggesting that the winner can claim the party nomination with only a plurality margin.

This survey suggests that the MO-1 Democratic primary, for the second consecutive election cycle, will be competitive. In 2020, Bush upset veteran Congressman Lacy Clay in the party primary that paved the way for her easy general election victory. The Democratic primary controls the general election since the district is rated D+52.

NY-23: State Chair Langworthy New Nominee — The local Republican chairmen whose counties comprise the current 23rd Congressional District have decided that newly announced congressional candidate Nick Langworthy — the New York Republican Party chairman — will be the party’s special election nominee for the race to succeed resigned Rep. Tom Reed (R-Corning). Langworthy will face retired Air Force Colonel Max Della Pia whom the Democratic chairmen had previously selected. Under New York election law, the county parties choose nominees in the event of a vacancy.

Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) scheduled the special to be concurrent with the regular congressional primary on Aug. 23. We can expect both Langworthy and Della Pia to win their respective regular election primaries, so we can count on seeing the two battle not only on Aug. 23, but also for the general election. Langworthy now becomes a big favorite in the southwestern upstate district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+23. Dave’s Redistricting App scores it 55.37 percent R and 41.98 percent D. Former President Trump carried the new 23rd District in 2020 by a 55-43 percent count.

Redistricting

Louisiana: Federal Judge Rejects Map — A federal judge has struck down the Louisiana legislature’s 2022 congressional map under the argument that another minority seat can be drawn in the state. The current map and the new plan features a 5R-1D delegation split with the lone Democratic seat, which is 58.6 percent black and 70.2 percent minority, stretching from New Orleans to Baton Rouge. The judge ruled that such a plan violates the Voting Rights Act.

Expect the Republicans to appeal to the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals. The US Supreme Court has already agreed to hear a similar Alabama case, and this one will set the record for Voting Rights interpretation. Therefore, the chances of the Appellate Court staying the new Louisiana ruling and reinstating the map for the 2022 elections are high. Under the rejected plan, all six of the state’s incumbents would have safe seats in which to run for re-election.