Tag Archives: Michigan

New Senate Numbers

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Sept. 4, 2024

Senate

Michigan Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing)

A new polling series involving several Senate races unveils some new interesting data patterns.

Emerson College, polling for the Hill Newspaper, conducted one of their typical survey series for key US Senate races. In this group, during the period of Aug. 25-28, the Emerson pollsters queried an aggregate total of 4,488 respondents in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Within this group, we saw serious new movement in the Wolverine and Badger States.

In Michigan, which has consistently featured a close race between Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) and former Rep. Mike Rogers (R), the Democrat’s lead increased to six points, 47-41 percent, according to the Emerson data. The bigger surprise was Wisconsin. In the Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) vs. Eric Hovde (R) Emerson ballot test, the incumbent led by only one point, 49-48 percent.

In most of this year’s polling, the Michigan race has returned close results, and routinely followed the pattern set in the presidential contest. In 2024, this type of trend was unusual because the other competitive states consistently found the Republican candidate running substantially behind the percentages that GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump was posting.

This is not the first poll, however, that projected a separation between the two Michigan candidates. Just before Emerson went into the field with their polling series, the TIPP poll, surveying for the American Greatness organization (Aug. 20-22; 741 likely Michigan general election voters; online), found Slotkin leading by 10 percentage points, or four more than the Emerson result. At the time, the TIPP poll appeared as an anomaly; instead, the benchmark may have proved the beginning of a new trend.

The one-point Wisconsin spread Emerson finds between Sen. Baldwin and Hovde is much different than any other poll conducted since February with the exception of one survey taken at the end of June and the beginning of July. The data from that poll, which the Remington Research Group conducted, found the two contenders deadlocked in a 48-48 percent tie.

According to the Real Clear Politics data and policy site, Sen. Baldwin’s mean average lead is 6.35 percent from the 24 Wisconsin Senate polls that have been conducted this year, and the median average is seven points. Within the 24 polls, her highest margin was 12 points, reached twice, with the low being the aforementioned Remington Research tie.

It remains to be seen if the Emerson Wisconsin poll is itself an anomaly or the beginning of a new close trend.

The other Emerson results return numbers often seen in other studies. In Arizona, the Emerson data finds Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) leading former news anchor and 2022 Republican gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake, 49-42 percent. In the other four August Grand Canyon State surveys that four different polling entities conducted: Fox News, Rasmussen Reports, Noble Predictive Insights, and the New York Times/Siena College, Rep. Gallego chronologically led Lake by 15, 8, 7, and 9 percentage points.

The Emerson Nevada numbers, which show a 10-point spread for incumbent Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) over her opponent, businessman and Afghan War disabled veteranSam Brown (R), are consistent with the three other August Silver State polls. Here, the group of pollsters is consistent with those found in Arizona except for not including Noble Predictive Insights. In these surveys, the Rosen margin was 14, 11, and 9 percentage points.

The final state in the Emerson series is Pennsylvania. Incumbent Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D) is running for a fourth term. Here, Emerson finds Sen. Casey and former hedge fund CEO David McCormick (R) locked in a low single-digit battle, separated by four percentage points.

Pennsylvania has seen a greater degree of August polling than the other states. In this race, pollsters have surveyed the Keystone State electorate a total of seven times. In addition to the previously mentioned pollsters, Quinnipiac University, Franklin & Marshall, and the Cook Political Report also surveyed the Senate race.

In the early part of the month, Sen. Casey had opened a large lead over McCormick, to the tune of 13, 12, and 14 percentage points. From the polls ending Aug. 8 to the present, the contest has tightened. Including two Emerson College polls, the margin between Casey and McCormick had lessened to 4, 3, 4, and 5 points, chronologically. This suggests a clear move in the contest and now becomes a campaign where the leader consistently posts only low single-digit advantages.

We can expect to see much more data coming from each of these states before the Nov. 5 election. All of these contests will have an important role in determining which party controls the next Senate majority.

House Open Seats: The Change Factor

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, August 29, 2024

House

Colorado Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Silt) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Once again, we see a large number of open seats in the US House of Representatives, something that has been common throughout the previous decade and the beginning of this one, yet in 2024 very few open seats are poised to flip to the opposite party.

In a political body where incumbent retention is extraordinarily high – in 2022 we saw 98.1 percent of House incumbents who sought re-election win – and will almost assuredly be again so in 2024, most often seats that convert to the opposite party do so in open status.

That’s not the case in 2024. Currently, we find 55 open seats, 29 coming from the Democratic column, 25 from the Republicans, with one district, AL-2, which was created as a new seat in a secondary redistricting redraw. Yet from this number, and not counting the eight seats that were open during the cycle and filled in special elections, one could argue that only 10 will either flip or see a serious competition level.

At the end of the cycle, it would not be surprising to see only those affected by a second round of redistricting flip, meaning the three seats in North Carolina changing from Democrat to Republican, and one each moving from Republican to Democrat in Alabama and Louisiana.

Therefore, of the current 55 open House seats, it appears very likely that 50 will remain with the incumbent party or flip because of redistricting. Therefore, in only five instances do we see an open seat where the controlling party might change via election.

Perhaps the most hotly contested open seat lies in southern California where Rep. Katie Porter’s (D-Irvine) Orange County-anchored 47th District should be rated as a toss-up. Former state Assemblyman Scott Baugh (R), who finished first in the jungle primary, and state Sen. Dave Min (D-Irvine), who finished second, are the general election finalists.

If the jungle primary partisan breakdown is any indication as to how this race might end, and it may well be, then this is one that could take weeks to decide under the elongated ballot counting and signature verification process that California employs.

In the qualification election, Baugh finished first with 32.1 percent while Sen. Min captured 25.9 percent. The aggregate Republican percentage total from three candidates was 49.6 percent. The total Democratic percentage dispersed through four candidates was 47.1 percent, with the remaining 3.3 percent divided among a trio of No Party Preference candidates. CA-47 leans Democratic. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as D+6, and the Daily Kos Elections statisticians, now with The Down Ballot data site, ranks the 47th as the 32nd most vulnerable seat in the House Democratic Conference.

The district that Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-CO) vacated, which covers Colorado’s western slope mountain region, should be a Republican CD. The FiveThirtyEight data team sees a GOP advantage of R+15, and The Down Ballot organization ranks the district as the 51st most vulnerable seat in the Republican Conference. Still, Democrat Adam Frisch has raised more money than all House candidates in the nation with the exception of the former House Speaker and Democratic Leader.

Though he already spent three-quarters of his money, most of which was raised when he was running against Rep. Boebert, Frisch still had almost $4 million more at his disposal in late June than new Republican nominee Jeffrey Hurd. Resources and residual name ID and losing the closest election of 2022 gives Frisch a fighting chance in what should be a safe Republican seat.

On paper, central/east Michigan’s 7th and 8th Districts appear as pure toss-ups. In actuality, with President Joe Biden taking the reconfigured 7th with a 49.4 – 48.9 percent tight victory and a slightly larger 50.3 – 48.2 percent finish in the adjacent 8th CD, as well as continuing to re-elect Democratic House members, 2024 US Senate candidate Elissa Slotkin and retiring Rep. Dan Kildee, the party has a more discernible edge than the dead even statistical calculations suggest.

This gives former state Rep. Curtis Hertel (D) and state Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet (D-Bay City) the probable advantage they will need to beat their respective Republican opponents, ex-state senator and 2022 congressional nominee Tom Barrett and three-time congressional nominee Paul Junge, respectively.

Virginia’s 7th CD, open because Democratic incumbent Rep. Abigail Spanberger is preparing a 2025 run for governor, is another seat that looks more vulnerable on paper than it does in terms of actual vote counting. The FiveThirtyEight data organization ranks the 7th, that stretches from the outer Richmond suburbs to the Washington, DC exburbs, as D+2, and it ranks as the 17th most vulnerable seat in the Democratic Conference.

President Biden, however, recorded a more comfortable 52.6 – 45.8 percent majority and Rep. Spanberger scored a 51-49 percent re-election victory even though the congresswoman faced a constituency where three-quarters of the district’s residents were not in her previous district.

In the open seat election, retired Army officer Eugene Vindman (D) has a huge resource advantage over Iraq War veteran Derrick Anderson (R). Vindman had a 7:1 fundraising advantage over Anderson according to the most recent campaign disclosure filings.

At the end of the campaign cycle, it would not be surprising to see no open seat flip to the opposite party without the aid of a new redistricting map. If so, we will see yet another unique facet of the wild 2024 election cycle.

Is RFK Jr. In or Out? Hogan Moves Into a Tie in Maryland; Sheehy Rebounds in Montana; The Race to Replace the Late Rep. Bill Pascrell

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, August 28, 2024

President

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Robert F. Kennedy Jr: Can’t Withdraw in Key States — Though presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (I) wants to withdraw from the ballot in all key battleground states, certain election officials say they won’t or can’t (under state election law) remove his name. It appears that Kennedy’s name will remain on the ballot in Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. It appears he won’t be on in Arizona, Georgia, or Pennsylvania.

Trump campaign pollster Tony Fabrizio released a memo suggesting the preponderance of Kennedy voters would move to former President Donald Trump if their first choice, Kennedy, were not on the ballot. In Michigan, according to Fabrizio, the Kennedy vote breaks 43-41 percent in Trump’s favor. The Nevada Kennedy vote split is a whopping 66-16 percent for Trump; North Carolina, 58-22 percent; and Wisconsin, 55-25 percent. Therefore, the Trump campaign and Kennedy will have to communicate to Kennedy voters in these affected states that RFK Jr. is no longer in the race irrespective of his ballot presence.

Senate

Maryland: Hogan Moves Into Tie: — The latest AARP Maryland poll (conducted jointly by Fabrizio Ward & Associates (R) and Impact Research (D); Aug. 14-20; 600 likely Maryland general election voters; oversample of 482 likely voters over age 50; oversample of 176 black likely voters; 60 percent live interview; 40 percent text) projects that former Gov. Larry Hogan (R) and Prince Georges County Executive Angela Alsobrooks (D) are deadlocked with each attracting 46 percent support.

These results are much different than the last publicly released ballot test survey, that from Public Policy Polling, conducted over the June 19-20 period. According to those results, Alsobrooks held a 48-40 percent lead. Before, Emerson College and Concord Public Opinion Partners conducted pre-May 14 Maryland primary polls. The two found Alsobrooks leading by two and five points, respectively. The AARP data puts the Maryland Senate race into an entirely different competitive prism. Should this tight electoral pattern continue, the Maryland Senate race will move into the top tier of competitive statewide contests.

Montana: Sheehy Rebounds — A new Public Opinion Strategies survey (Aug. 18-20; 500 likely Montana voters; live interview) finds retired Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy (R) climbing back into the lead over veteran Montana Sen. Jon Tester (D). According to the POS results, Sheehy leads the three-term incumbent, 51-44 percent.

Earlier in the month, RMG Research, polling for the Napolitan Institute (Aug. 6-14; 540 registered Montana voters) saw Tester leading 49-44 percent. Even the latter poll, however, flips to Sheehy if people believe that the Montana race will flip the Senate to Republican control. Under this argument, the ballot test reverses in Sheehy’s favor by a 55-37 percent mark.

Aside from converting the West Virginia Democratic Senate seat, which appears to be a lock for the GOP, Montana is clearly the next best contest for Republicans to topple a Democratic senator and claim a bare minimum Senate majority.

House

NJ-9: Endorsements & a Drop Out — State Sen. Nellie Pou (D-Paterson) received a big bounce in her effort to replace the late Rep. Bill Pascrell (D-Paterson) on the New Jersey general election ballot. New Jersey politics, of which the local county party chairmen have powerful positions, is still machine driven. For the coming special Democratic Party meeting to replace Pascrell, all three of the 9th District’s county chairmen, those from Passaic, Bergen, and Hudson counties, have endorsed the local state senator.

In another pre-meeting event, Paterson Mayor André Sayegh, thought to be the late congressman’s choice to succeed him, announced that he is removing himself from consideration. The remaining candidates are: General Assembly Speaker Pro Tempore Benjie Wimberly (D-Paterson), Assemblywoman Shavonda Sumter (D-Paterson), and state Sen. Pou.

RFK Jr.’s Ballot Status;
Dahlstrom Withdraws in Alaska;
NJ-9 Replacement Nominee Selection;
New Hampshire Pre-Primary Poll

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, August 27, 2024

President

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (I) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

RFK Jr: Current Ballot Status — Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (I) on Friday announced that he will suspend his campaign in battleground states but remain in places where the race is not as competitive. Which, however, are those states? It’s clear he will not compete in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, domains that all agree are battlegrounds, but what about some others that may be on the competitiveness cusp? Kennedy has qualified for the ballot in Alaska, Maine, Nebraska, and New Mexico, all of which under certain circumstances could become close.

Alaska and Maine employ the Ranked Choice Voting system, which could change the outcome of the initial ballot count if no one secures majority support. Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District is a battleground area and, depending upon the outcome of other key battleground domains, could cause a tie in the Electoral College. New Mexico has shown some close polling before President Joe Biden exited the race, but could it tighten again in the remaining weeks? Therefore, while Kennedy is out of the key battlegrounds and has endorsed former President Donald Trump, where he will or will not remain on the ballot is still open to some question.

House

AK-AL: Dahlstrom Withdraws — Republicans scored a major break in the Alaska at-large congressional race. Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom (R), who finished third in the Aug. 20 jungle primary, and thus advances into the general election under the Alaska top four voting system, announced on Friday that she is ending her congressional campaign. This will allow second-place finisher Nick Begich III (R) to challenge Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Bethel) in a one-on-one general election battle.

The Dahlstrom move increases the Republican chances of victory, though Rep. Peltola still should be considered at least a slight early general election favorite. Though all of the primary ballots are still not recorded, it does appear that she exceeded the 50 pecent mark. This would be significant heading into the general election, though under a larger turnout and a united Republican Party, Begich’s chances significantly increase.

There will be a fourth-place finisher advancing, too, however the individual’s vote count – fourth position is still undecided – is less than 1,000, so chances are strong that said individual will either drop out or only be a minimal factor in November.

NJ-9: Replacement Nominee to be Selected — Individuals contemplating whether to run now to replace New Jersey’s late Rep. Bill Pascrell (D-Paterson) don’t have much time to decide. Under state law, the ballots become locked on Aug. 29, so the 9th District Democratic party has only three days this week to choose a replacement nominee.

Indicating they want to be considered for the nomination are state Assembly members Shavonda Sumter (D-Paterson) and Speaker Pro Tempore Benjie Wimberly (D-Paterson). Paterson Mayor Andre Sayegh is also a potential candidate. The committee members’ choice will immediately become a heavy favorite to succeed Pascrell. The Republican nominee is sales consultant Billy Prempeh, who held Rep. Pascrell to a 55-45 percent victory margin in 2022.

States

New Hampshire: Pre-Primary Statewide Poll — The University of New Hampshire conducted their regular Granite State poll, this in anticipation of the state’s late Sept. 10 primary election.

As other data has shown, ex-Sen. Kelly Ayotte maintains a strong Republican primary advantage over former state Senate president and 2022 Senate candidate Chuck Morse. In this poll, which is her best showing, Ayotte leads Morse by a whopping 65-21 percent. On the Democratic side, we see a closer race, but one with a consistent leader, former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig. In this survey, Craig notches a 39-30 percent edge over Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington.

In the US House races, Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) has only minor opposition in the Democratic primary. In the crowded Republican primary, former executive councilor and ex-state Sen. Russell Prescott holds a 19-10 percent advantage over Manchester City Alderman Joseph Kelly Lavasseur with no other candidate reaching double digits.

In open District 2, from which Rep. Annie Kuster (D-Hopkinton) is retiring, former Biden Administration official Maggie Goodlander leads the Democratic primary over former executive council member and 2016 Democratic gubernatorial nominee Colin Van Ostern. The split is 34-28 percent, which is closer than other polls have indicated. This could suggest that Van Ostern has developed momentum heading into the primary election. On the Republican side, business consultant Vikram Mansharamani has a small 21-17 percent edge over businesswoman Lily Tang Williams and 10 others.

Trump May be Up, But Senate Dems
Lead in Polling Series

By Jim Ellis — Monday, August 26, 2024

Polling

Former President Donald Trump

Rasmussen Reports released a series of presidential state polls, all with accompanying competitive Senate races, and while the numbers are surprisingly favorable for former President Donald Trump, the same sampling universes are leaning decidedly Democratic in the Senate races.

All of the Rasmussen polls were conducted during the Aug. 15-21 period with a total of 1,893 likely voters sampled in Arizona, Michigan, Montana, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The respondents were queried through live interviews and online.

On the national ballot test, Trump’s lead over Vice President Kamala Harris is three points, 49-46 percent. When multiple candidates are added, the ballot test changes to a 47-45 percent Trump edge. With Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leaving the race with his announcement Friday, the multiple candidate matrix is no longer as valuable.

YouGov, polling for The Economist publication, was also in the field at a similar time with their online poll (Aug. 17-20; 1,565 US adults) and found Harris to be leading their national survey, 46-43 percent, almost an exact reverse of the Rasmussen findings. The Rasmussen sample, however, is comprised of likely voters, whereas the YouGov poll tested adults, and nine percent of that latter universe indicated they are likely non-voters.

In the states, the Rasmussen numbers find Trump leading by large percentages in Montana (+23) and Ohio (+7). He also tips ahead of Harris in Arizona and Nevada (+2 in each) and holds the barest of margins in Pennsylvania (+1). He trails by the same latter small margin in Michigan and Wisconsin (-1).

While these numbers are encouraging for Trump, the Republican Senate candidates are not in the same sphere.

In Arizona, while Trump leads by two points, GOP senatorial candidate Kari Lake trails Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) by eight, meaning a net drop-off from Trump to the respective Senate candidate of a full 10 percentage points.

While Montana Senate challenger Tim Sheehy (R) is running ahead of Sen. Jon Tester (D) 50-43 percent in the Rasmussen poll, he is still 16 percentage points behind Trump’s standing. In Nevada, the net drop-off from Trump to the Senate candidate is 13 points. The former president leads VP Harris by two, but Senate candidate Sam Brown (R) trails Sen. Jacky Rosen (D), 50-39 percent.

The Ohio race sees a similarly large drop-off as has been the case for some time. While Trump enjoys a seven-point lead over Harris within the Buckeye State electorate, Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown continues to post five-point leads over Republican Bernie Moreno; hence, the net drop-off in this case is 12 percentage points.

Wisconsin follows the same pattern. Here, Trump is down one point according to the Rasmussen data, while Senate GOP candidate Eric Hovde is 10 points under Sen. Tammy Baldwin’s (D) standing for a net drop-off of nine percent.

In Pennsylvania, however, the Senate race appears to be tightening according to the Rasmussen results. While Trump leads by one point, GOP Senate candidate David McCormick trails Sen. Bob Casey, Jr. (D) by only a 46-43 percent split, meaning a net drop-off of four points from Trump’s standing. Other recent polls, such as the Emerson College (Aug. 13-14; 1,000 likely Pennsylvania voters; multiple sampling techniques) and the Quinnipiac University poll (Aug. 8-12; 1,738 likely Pennsylvania voters; live interview) detect a similar trend, finding the spread between Casey and McCormick to be five and four points, respectively.

Michigan is the one state where the drop-off pattern has not been a significant issue. Throughout the polling cycle, the Republican Senate candidate and Trump have posted polling numbers relatively in the same realm. The same is true in this Rasmussen poll. In Michigan, Harris posted a one-point edge in the presidential race, while Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) led former Congressman Mike Rogers (R) by just two points in their Senate campaign.

If the Republicans are to make a run at a larger Senate majority, they must find communication points that change the opinions of Trump-Democratic Senate candidate voters. So far, the party communications have not found the message to move such a segment.

Primaries in Four States Today; Conflicting Polls in Michigan;
Casey Up Double Digits;
New Jersey’s Governor’s Race

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, August 13, 2024

Primaries

Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minneapolis) is expected to record a substantial primary victory today. / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Voting Today: Four States and One CD — Voters in Connecticut, Minnesota, Vermont, and Wisconsin will vote today while the Harris County, Texas Democratic Party members are choosing a general election nominee to replace the late Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Houston).

The primaries will be quiet affairs in Connecticut and Vermont as all incumbents are running either unopposed or against minor opposition. Minnesota US Reps. Ilhan Omar (D-Minneapolis) and Michelle Fishbach (R-Regal) face primary opposition that looked interesting for a time, but now both incumbents are expected to record substantial victories.

The WI-8 open seat Republican primary will attract the most attention in the Badger State. There former state Senate President Roger Roth, state Sen Andre Jacque (R-Green Bay), and businessman Tony Wied are vying for the party nomination. The winner will very likely succeed resigned Rep. Mike Gallagher (R).

The Democrats have a contested primary in the state’s western 3rd District where state Rep. Katrina Shankland (D-Stevens Point) and business owner Rebecca Cooke are vying for the opportunity to challenge freshman Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien).

Former Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner appears to be the favorite to come through the party nomination convention as the congressional nominee, though several state Representatives and Houston City council members are also vying for support from the 88 voting members.

Senate

Michigan: Conflicting Polls — Two surveys were released in the past three days, and while both find Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) leading former Rep. Mike Rogers (R), the margin between the two studies is highly inconsistent. The New York Times/Siena College (Aug. 5-8; 619 likely Michigan voters) found Rep. Slotkin leading 46-43 percent, which is in line with most other polls conducted of the race.

The Bullfinch Group, however, also tested the Michigan electorate in early August (polling for the Independent Center; part of a three swing state polling series; Aug. 8-11; 500 registered Michigan voters; online) and sees Rep. Slotkin posting a much larger 48-38 percent lead. The error factor in the latter poll, with a small online sample size, is much greater than the NYT/Siena College study, so it is likely that this survey is an anomaly.

Pennsylvania: Casey Up Double Digits in Two Surveys — A pair of research studies were also released in the Keystone State and produced similar results, the best so far for Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D). As in Michigan, the two were from the New York Times/Siena College (Aug. 6-8; 693 likely Pennsylvania voters) and the Bullfinch Group (polling for the Independent Center; part of a three swing state polling series; Aug. 8-11; 500 registered Michigan voters; online).

The NYT/Siena ballot test projected Sen. Casey’s lead to be a whopping 51-37 percent over former hedge fund CEO David McCormick (R). Bullfinch found an almost identical result, recording the senator’s advantage at 51-39 percent over challenger McCormick. This was always going to be a tough race for Republicans, and now the McCormick campaign must make a serious move to tighten the race to ensure the candidate is positioned to potentially score an upset victory. Currently, Sen. Casey appears to be in the driver’s seat as he strives to clinch a fourth term.

Governor

New Jersey: Rep. Sherrill Preparing Statewide Run — As has long been anticipated, Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) yesterday signaled that she will launch a 2025 campaign for governor soon after the November 2024 general election. Also expected to run is US Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-Wycoff). Already announced are Democratic mayors Ras Baraka (Newark), Steve Fulop (Jersey City), and Sean Spiller (Montclair), in addition to former state Senate President Steve Sweeney.

The Republicans will feature 2021 GOP nominee Jack Ciattarelli, state Sen. Jon Bramnick (R-Westfield), former state Senator Ed Durr, and radio talk show host Bill Spadea. Gov. Phil Murphy (D) is ineligible to seek a third term, hence the large forming candidate field especially on the Democratic side. This will be an intense gubernatorial contest.

Swing State Seesaw; Hawaii’s Election Results; New Leader in Delaware Governor’s Race, While North Carolina Stays Consistent

By Jim Ellis — Monday, August 12, 2024

President

Polling: Swing State Seesaw — The presidential race continues to behave like a seesaw with regard to cumulative polling data. The most recent New York Times/Siena College polling series finds Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump by identical 50-46 percent counts in the critical Great Lakes states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin from their results released Aug. 10.

Yet, the Trafalgar Group and Insider Advantage released their cumulative data in the same states on Aug. 9. Trafalgar found Trump leading 46-44 percent in Pennsylvania, while IA sees Trump with a 49-48 percent edge in Wisconsin. The Insider Advantage Michigan result, Harris leading 49-47 percent, confirmed the NYT/Siena Wolverine State conclusion. With the race leaders varying literally by the day, at this point the contest appears to be a dead heat.

Primary Results

Hawaii: Electorate Voted Saturday — There was not a great deal of competition in Saturday’s Aloha State primary. Sen. Mazie Hirono (D), on the ballot seeking a third term was renominated with a landslide 90.5 percent of the Democratic primary vote. She will now face former state representative and ex-US Senate nominee Bob McDermott, who captured 52 percent of the vote in a six-way Republican primary. In 2022, McDermott lost to Sen. Brian Schatz (D), 69-25 percent. Another similar outcome is forecast for his race against Sen. Hirono. The only interesting Hawaii primary political news is the state House Speaker, Scott Saiki (D-Downtown Honolulu), losing his bid for renomination to state Board of Education member Kim Coco Iwamoto.

Governor

Delaware: New Polling Leader — According to a Concord Public Opinion Partners survey (conducted for the Education Reform Now Advocacy organization; Aug. 2-4; 453 registered Delaware voters; live interview & text), the negative publicity surrounding Lt. Gov. Bethany Hall-Long’s alleged campaign finance violations in not disclosing money paid to her husband has hurt her bid for governor.

The Concord poll finds New Castle County Executive Matt Meyer leading the open Democratic gubernatorial primary with a 30-23 percent spread as the two battle to win the Sept. 10 primary election. The winner will become the clear favorite to claim the general election in November. Gov. John Carney (D) is ineligible to seek a third term. Instead, he is running for mayor of Wilmington, the small state’s largest city.

North Carolina: AG Stein (D) Opening Consistent Lead — The Cygnal polling organization released a statewide Tar Heel State survey, and their data finds Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson falling further behind Attorney General Josh Stein (D) in their race to succeed term-limited Gov. Roy Cooper (D). The poll (Aug. 4-5; 600 likely North Carolina general election voters) finds AG Stein topping Robinson, 43-38 percent, even though all other Republicans are leading.

In the presidential race, former President Trump runs ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris, 47-44 percent. In the open attorney’s general contest, GOP Rep. Dan Bishop (R-Charlotte) holds a 42-38 percent advantage over Democratic Rep. Jeff Jackson (D-Charlotte). And, in a race for state Supreme Court, the Republican contender, Jefferson Griffin, posts a 40-37 percent edge over Democrat Allison Riggs.

Debatable Debates; Montana’s Sheehy Still Leads; Shah Declared Dem Winner in AZ-1; Rivet Trailing in MI-8

By Jim Ellis — Friday, August 9, 2024

President

Debates: Conflicting Messages — We are again seeing conflicting statements about who is debating when and where. Former President Donald Trump announced yesterday that there will be three debates, on Sept. 4 (Fox News), 10 (NBC News), and 25 (ABC News). Vice President Kamala Harris indicated that she is pleased that “… Donald Trump has finally committed to debating me on Sept. 10.”

It is unlikely that Harris will appear on Fox News, and there is a story indicating the Trump lawyers have told the former president that he cannot debate on ABC because they are involved in an active lawsuit against the network. Therefore, the only common ground appears to be on Sept. 10, meaning NBC News’ reporters will moderate.

Senate

Montana: First Harris Poll; Sheehy Still Leads — The first Montana poll featuring Vice President Harris as the Democratic presidential nominee has been released. Emerson College tested the Big Sky electorate (polling for The Hill Newspaper; Aug. 5-6; 1,000 likely Montana general election voters; multiple sampling techniques) and found that former President Trump’s lead in the state has remained relatively consistent when pitted against Harris versus President Joe Biden.

The new numbers project Trump leading VP Harris, 55-40 percent. The Senate pattern is a familiar one found here and in other competitive states. That is, the Republican candidate running substantially behind Trump’s standing. In this case, however, retired Navy SEAL and aerospace company CEO Tim Sheehy (R) continues to forge a small lead over Sen. Jon Tester (D).

The ballot test for the Montana Senate campaign found Sheehy posting a slight 48-46 percent edge over the three-term Democratic incumbent. With the Trump margin expected to grow as the campaign matures, Sheehy’s position should improve, as well. Therefore, this Senate race has strong potential to flip from D to R. Doing so would clinch an outright majority in the new Senate. Coupled with West Virginia, which is a sure flip, a Montana victory would give the GOP at least 51 seats.

House

AZ-1: Shah Declared Dem Winner — As the Arizona ballot verification and counting process slowly continues, another race has been officially called. Physician and former state Rep. Amish Shah (D), who led throughout the counting process, has defeated former Arizona Democratic Party chairman Andre Cherni and ex-television journalist Marlene Galan-Woods to claim the party nomination.

Dr. Shah only captured 23.5 percent of the vote in the crowded field, but the total was enough to score a plurality victory. Dr. Shah finished two percentage points ahead of both Cherni and Galan-Woods. The latter two were separated by only 106 votes.

The count is still not final, but Dr. Shah’s margin over his two closest competitors is larger than the number of ballots that remain uncounted. Therefore, Dr. Shah will advance into the general election to wage a competitive battle against veteran Rep. David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills) in a district that only leans Republican.

MI-8: Candidate Released Poll Showing Her Trailing — A rather surprising poll was released from a new Democratic congressional nominee. State Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet (D-Bay City), who won the open 8th District Democratic primary with 53.3 percent of the vote, just released her internal Global Strategy Group poll (July 29-Aug. 1; 500 likely MI-8 voters; live interview & online) that shows her trailing new Republican nominee Paul Junge, 44-45 percent.

Releasing data that shows the principal trailing is curious considering that Democratic primary turnout was seven percentage points (58.5 percent) higher than the Republican participation factor. This number appears even stronger when compared with the statewide turnout partisan division. In the overall Michigan primary, the Democratic turnout advantage only reached 51.5 percent.

The argument for releasing the virtual dead heat data was that Junge, a former news anchorman and two-time Republican nominee, has better name identification throughout the district than Sen. Rivet. While this is a valid point, the turnout favoring Rivet’s party to a large degree suggests that her standing should be stronger.

Missouri’s Cori Bush Out in Primary; Other Primary Results From Kansas, Washington, Michigan

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, August 7, 2024

Primary Results

Missouri Rep. Cori Bush (D-St. Louis)

Missouri: Rep. Bush Unseated — In an expensive race where the incumbent was heavily outspent, former St. Louis County prosecutor Wesley Bell denied two-term Rep. Cori Bush (D-St. Louis) renomination by just over 6,800 votes. Rep. Bush is the third incumbent to lose to an intra-party challenger, joining Reps. Jamaal Bowman (D-NY) and Bob Good (R-VA) as defeated incumbents. Rep. Jerry Carl (R-AL) also lost his bid for renomination, but that race was an incumbent pairing due to a new redistricting map.

In the open 3rd District, in a race that winnowed down to two former state senators vying to replace retiring Rep. Blaine Luetkemeyer (R-St. Elizabeth), Bob Onder, armed with an endorsement from former President Donald Trump, saw a late vote surge propel him over Kurt Schaefer for a Republican nomination win, which is tantamount to winning the November election.

In the open governor’s race, Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe defeated state Sen. Bill Eigel (R-Weldon Spring) and Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft in a close three-way result. Kehoe advances into the general election as the favorite against state House Minority Leader Crystal Quade (D-Springfield). Gov. Mike Parson (R), who endorsed Lt. Gov. Kehoe, was ineligible to seek a third term.

Kansas: Schmidt Clinches GOP Primary — In Kansas’ open 2nd District, former Attorney General and ex-Republican gubernatorial nominee Derek Schmidt easily won the open Republican nomination. Schmidt was topping the 53 percent mark in a field of five candidates. The former statewide official is now a clear favorite to win the general election and keep the seat in the Republican column.

For the Democrats, former Rep. Nancy Boyda won a close primary with just over 51 percent of the vote in her political comeback attempt. Advancing to the general election, Boyda will be a big underdog to Schmidt in a 2nd District that is much different than the seat she represented for one term 16 years ago. Two-term Rep. Jake LaTurner (R-Topeka) chose not to seek re-election.

Washington: Rep. Newhouse Trails in Jungle Primary — The Washington jungle primary featured a full slate of races. Sen. Maria Cantwell (D) captured first place in the Senate race, with 58 percent at this writing. She will face Republican physician Raul Garcia in the general election. Sen. Cantwell is now a prohibitive favorite to capture a fifth term.

The competitive House races find five-term Rep. Dan Newhouse (R-Sunnyside) fighting to finish second in the jungle primary and advance to the general election against retired NASCAR driver Jerrod Sessler (R), who was one of two candidates who former President Donald Trump endorsed.

In the state’s southwestern District 3, Rep. Marie Glusenkamp Perez (D-Skamania County) placed first over technology company executive Joe Kent (R), the man she upset in the general election from two years ago. While she captured just over 10,000 votes compared to Kent, the combined Republican turnout was almost 5,000 votes larger than the Democratic participation figure. Therefore, we can surmise that the Perez-Kent re-match will again end in close fashion, just as in 2022.

In the open 5th District, Spokane County Treasurer Mike Baumgartner (R), who had the backing of most conservative activists, placed first in the crowded jungle primary and will face Democrat Carmela Conroy, the Spokane County Democratic chair, in the general election. Because he drew a Democratic opponent in the general election in this safely Republican seat, Baumgartner is now the clear favorite to succeed retiring Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-Spokane).

In the open 6th, with candidates vying to succeed retiring six-term Rep. Derek Kilmer (D-Gig Harbor), it appears that two state senators, Emily Randall (D-Bremerton) and Drew MacEwen (R-Union) will advance into the general election. State Land Commissioner Hilary Franz (D) lies about 5,500 votes behind MacEwen. With a large percentage of the vote left unreceived and uncounted, this race is not yet over, but the early numbers suggest the order will not change.

In the governor’s race, Attorney General Bob Ferguson (D) easily outpaced former Congressman Dave Reichert (R), but both will advance to the general election. With Democrats comprising 56 percent of the early turnout figure, Ferguson will be difficult to defeat in the November election especially with Vice President Kamala Harris likely to record a big Washington state win over former President Trump.

Michigan: No Surprises — In the open Senate race, both Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) and former Rep. Mike Rogers (R) won landslide victories in their respective primaries. A tight general election is expected between these two top performing candidates.

The House races concluded as expected.

In what is sure to be a toss-up general election campaign, both former state senators Tom Barrett (R) and Curtis Hertel (D) were unopposed for their respective party nominations. The November battle will determine Rep. Elissa Slotkin’s (D-Lansing) successor.

In the competitive 8th District, as expected state Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet (D-Bay City) and former news anchor and two-time congressional nominee Paul Junge (R) won their respective primaries. Both the 7th and 8th districts will carry toss-up ratings into the general election. Overall Democratic turnout in the 8th CD was higher than the Republican participation rate which is a good sign for Rivet especially because, at this writing, GOP statewide turnout is higher than the Democratic number.

In the competitive 10th District, we will see a rematch between former judge and Macomb County prosecutor Carl Marlinga (D), who easily topped a crowded Democratic field, and freshman Rep. John James (R-Fountain Hills). In District 13, freshman Rep. Shri Thanedar (D-Detroit) turned back two Democratic challengers to virtually clinch a second term.

Michigan Senate Race Movement; Pennsylvania’s Casey Up Solidly; Surprising New Alabama Poll;
Cori Bush Trailing in Re-Election Bid

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, July 31, 2024

Senate

Michigan: Pensler Out; Two Polls — Underdog Michigan US Senate candidate Sandy Pensler (R) announced that he is abandoning his own campaign and will instead endorse former Congressman Mike Rogers (R) for the GOP nomination to oppose US Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing). The congresswoman is the prohibitive favorite to win the Democratic nomination.

A pair of polls were also released of the general election yielding considerably different results. While both find Rep. Slotkin leading, EPIC-MRA, the most prolific Michigan pollster (for the Detroit Free Press; July 13-17; 600 registered Michigan voters), sees the congresswoman posting a three point lead over Rogers, 43-40 percent.

Public Policy Polling, however, sees a more substantial Slotkin advantage. Their survey (July 17-18; 650 registered Michigan voters; multiple sampling techniques) posts a 46-38 percent result. Of the many polls taken of this race, the EPIC-MRA result is more consistent with the preponderance of other surveys.

Sen. Bob Casey Jr. / Photo: FoxNews.com

Pennsylvania: A Polling Trifecta — Three pollsters surveyed the Keystone State electorate, and all show Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D) leading businessman David McCormick (R) beyond the polling margin of error. The most recent, from SoCal Research for the OnPoint political blog (July 20-21; 500 likely Pennsylvania voters; online), finds Sen. Casey posting a 10-point lead over McCormick, 50-40 percent, even while the same sample detects former President Donald Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris, 50-46 percent.

Public Policy Polling, surveying for the liberal Clean and Prosperous American PAC (July 17-18; 624 registered Pennsylvania voters; multiple sampling techniques), found an almost identical result with Sen. Casey ahead 11 points, 50-39 percent.

Finally, British pollster Redfield & Wilton Strategies (for The Telegraph publication; July 16-18; 688 likely Pennsylvania voters; online, part of a seven-state polling track of 5,005 respondents) added the three minor party candidates to their ballot test and projects that Sen. Casey would lead McCormick 44-37 percent with the other candidates attracting a cumulative three percentage points.

House

AL-2: A Surprising New Poll — Alabama’s new 2nd Congressional District was drawn to elect an African American Democrat, but a recent Strategy Management poll for the Alabama Families PAC (7/22-24; 1,000 AL-2 registered voters; live interview & text) found Republican Caroleen Dobson polling close to race favorite Shomari Figures (D). The ballot test gives Figures just a 37-34 percent edge.

Additionally, Figures’ fundraising is far below what one would expect. According to the June 30th Federal Election Commission second quarter disclosure report, the Democratic nominee had raised only $894,000 as compared to Dobson’s $2.2 million, though $1.3 million of that total comes in the form of a candidate loan.

Figures is still favored in a seat that Kamala Harris should easily carry over Donald Trump, but Dobson’s effort may be worthy of more attention as the campaign season moves into prime time.

MO-1: Rep. Bush Trailing in Pre-Primary Survey — Apparently, the strong outside group influence aimed at defeating Missouri US Rep. Cori Bush (D-St. Louis), approximately a 9:2 ratio in millions of dollars, is being well spent. A new Mellman Group poll July 21-24; 400 likely MO-1 Democratic primary voters) sees former St. Louis County prosecutor Wesley Bell leading Rep. Bush, 48-42 percent, as the candidates steam toward next week’s Aug. 6 primary election. The Bell lead has increased five points since a previous poll was published in June.

The chief funder of the anti-Bush efforts is the United Democracy Project, which is the political arm of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC). This group also led to charge to defeat another anti-Israel incumbent on June 25, Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-NY).