Tag Archives: Indiana

More Midwest Maneuverings

Indiana

Gov. Mike Pence (R), whose name appears from time to time on the ever-growing list of Republicans considering a presidential run, appears to be drawing at least one name opponent for the 2016 Indiana statewide race. The Hoosier State is one of 11 entities to hold their gubernatorial vote in the presidential election year, thus putting a potential crimp into any plan the governor may have about entering the national campaign.

Most believe Pence will seek re-election to a second term, especially since political heavyweights Evan Bayh, the Democratic former governor and senator, and former gubernatorial nominee John Gregg have both said they will not run for governor in 2016.

But, former US Rep. Baron Hill (D-IN-9) is making moves to suggest that he will enter the contest. Hill is leaving his DC lobbying firm and moving back to Indiana and reportedly is setting a financial budget as to what he will require to launch and conduct a competitive campaign.

Hill served 10 non-consecutive years in the House, and belongs to a small group of members who have twice lost their seats as incumbents. Hill was originally elected to the House in 1998, and fell to businessman Mike Sodrel (R) in the Bush re-election year of 2004. Undaunted, he ran once more two years later and re-claimed the seat in the 2006 Democratic landslide. But, in the Republican wave of 2010, Rep. Hill once Continue reading >

A Night for Incumbents

Now that the May 6 primaries are over, we see more verification that federal incumbents are returning to pre-2006 victory percentages, despite almost universally negative opinions about Washington.

As we all know, poll after poll is showing record disapproval of Congress, as an institution and pertaining to the leadership of both parties, but challenged incumbents in early primaries are recording stellar electoral results, nonetheless.

Below is the list of incumbents challenged in their own primaries on Tuesday night, along with their impressive victory percentages in most instances.

Indiana

District 3: Rep. Marlin Stutzman (R) – 81% against two opponents
District 4: Rep. Todd Rokita (R) – 71% against one opponent
District 5: Rep. Susan Brooks (R) – 73% against two opponents
District 7: Rep. Andre Carson (D) – 89% against three opponents
District 8: Rep. Larry Bucshon (R) – 75% against one opponent
District 9: Rep. Todd Young (R) – 79% against two opponents

Upsets Foiled as Incumbents Reign in Primaries

The first in a series of consecutive May primary weeks went solidly for the incumbents last night, as all US House members facing intra-party challengers, including House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH-8), rode to victory.

In the preponderance of cases, the incumbents won in the normal landslide proportion one would expect in primary elections. In only three instances, those of representatives Renee Ellmers (R-NC-2), Walter Jones Jr. (R-NC-3) and David Joyce (R-OH-14), did the incumbents fail to break 60 percent. Speaker Boehner, after campaigning hard and hitting the television airwaves to rebuff his under-financed but creative opponents, scored 69 percent of the vote.

The best news of the evening for Republicans came in North Carolina, where state House Speaker Thom Tillis exceeded the 40 percent threshold to win the party’s US Senate nomination outright. Late polling clearly suggested that Tillis would place first in the field of eight candidates, but questions remained as to whether he would Continue reading >

Filings Close in Several States

Alabama (Primary: June 3; Run-off: July 15)

The most notable point from the Alabama candidate filings is that four of the state’s six House members seeking re-election will be running unopposed this November. Only representatives Martha Roby (R-AL-2) and Mike Rogers (R-AL-3) have Democratic opposition, but both appear headed for little trouble in securing re-election.

Representatives Robert Aderholt (R-AL-4), Mo Brooks (R-AL-5), and Terri Sewell (D-AL-7) all drew primary opponents. Rep. Sewell’s challenger seems to be the strongest intra-party candidate. Former Birmingham city attorney Tamara Harris Johnson filed in the Democratic primary, but the incumbent remains the heavy favorite for renomination. In all three of these cases, once the individuals win their respective party primaries, the political opposition ends.

The governor’s race yielded an interesting political twist. Former Rep. Parker Griffith, who was elected to the 5th District in 2008 as a Democrat but became a Republican Continue reading >

The “Sweet” Sixteen House Races

Continuing our sector review of the 16 most competitive political campaigns reflective of the NCAA College Basketball Tournament’s spirit, we today turn to the US House campaigns:

AZ-1: Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D) won a similar version of this seat in 2008, lost it in 2010, and reacquired it last November when incumbent Paul Gosar (R) decided to seek re-election in District 4. With a 2012 victory percentage of only 49 percent in a district that Mitt Romney carried, Kirkpatrick can again expect stiff competition in 2014.

AZ-2: Rep. Ron Barber (D) who replaced his former boss, then-Rep. Gabrielle Giffords upon her resignation, had a closer than expected regular election contest against Republican Martha McSally. With Barber only scoring an even 50 percent of the 2012 vote, expect a strong re-match effort from retired Gulf War veteran McSally.

CA-26: When the California Citizens Redistricting Commission crafted this Ventura County district, they did so with the idea of making a marginal 50-50 seat. The goal was achieved, so freshman incumbent Julia Brownley (D) will continue to face strong competition likely for the rest of the decade. Former state senator Tony Strickland lost to Brownley in November and is considering seeking a re-match in 2014. Rep. Buck McKeon (R) deciding to retire in adjacent District 25, however, could attract Strickland to what would be an open seat.

CA-31: Rep. Gary Miller represents the strongest Obama district in the country (57 percent) that elected a Republican congressman. He was fortunate to draw another Republican in the 2012 general election, but will likely face a Democrat in 2014. Redlands Mayor Pete Aguilar (D), who failed to qualify for the general election last year, is looking to run again. This will be a top Democratic conversion target.
Continue reading >