Tag Archives: Green Party

Topsy Turvy Florida

By Jim Ellis

Aug. 26, 2016 — Yesterday, we reported about a Florida shock poll from St. Leo University that projected Donald Trump to be lagging 14 percentage points behind Hillary Clinton, but already the situation has changed.

Now, Florida Atlantic University releases its new data finding Trump actually ahead of Clinton, 43-41 percent. Confirming that trend, the Florida Chamber of Commerce also reported their new data, taken over the Aug. 17-22 period (sample size not available). This poll also finds Trump leading, 44-41 percent.

Methodologically, the set-up between the St. Leo and FAU surveys is similar, though there is no evidence that FAU uses online polling and St. Leo exclusively does. The latter organization’s poll directors were in the field from Aug. 14-18, FAU, Aug. 19-22. The St. Leo sampling universe began with 1,500 Florida adults and winnowed to 1,380 likely voters. FAU’s sample size was 1,200 registered voters. Thus, the time periods and sample sizes are similar.

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Trump’s Troubling Florida Poll

By Jim Ellis

Aug. 25, 2016 — The St. Leo University Polling Institute dropped a shock poll on the Donald Trump campaign a couple days ago, but the numbers appear inconsistent when comparing other available data.

The Florida poll finds Trump trailing Hillary Clinton by a whopping 52-38 percent margin when counting those individuals leaning to both candidates. Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson receives eight percent, and the Green Party’s Jill Stein attracts just over two percent support. Without leaners, Clinton’s margin is 48-34-6-2 percent consecutively over Trump, Johnson, and Stein. But, these numbers are far from what other pollsters are finding within the Sunshine State.

The St. Leo survey (Aug. 14-18; 1,500 Florida adults, 1,380 likely Florida voters), conducted online “ … uses cutting-edge online methodology … [that draws a] sample from large online panels, which allow for random selections that reflect accurate cross sections of all demographic groups.” The quoted passage comes from the institute’s official methodology explanation. St. Leo is a 16,000-plus student Catholic liberal arts university located 35 miles northeast of Tampa that was originally established in 1889, and re-established in 1959. Their Polling Institute was initiated in December of 2013.

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Johnson, Stein Likely Out

By JIm Ellis

Aug. 17, 2016 — The Commission on Presidential Debates has now provided more specific criteria pertaining to who will be invited to participate in the four presidential and vice presidential debates that are scheduled to begin Sept. 26.

Long ago, the commission members decided that the main qualification for national debate series participation is an arbitrary standing derived from a number of previously undetermined political surveys. Earlier reports indicated that only candidates obtaining 15 percent popular support as determined from the designated polls would be included.

Yesterday, in little way of surprise, the commission members announced that the official debate polls will be: ABC News/ Washington Post, CBS News/New York Times, CNN/Opinion Research, Fox News and NBC News/Wall Street Journal.

These polls, all using the same methodology in terms of sample size – normally around the 1,000 registered voter mark nationally – will likely continue to produce similar numbers. Therefore, it will be very difficult for Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson, and almost impossible for Green Party candidate Jill Stein, to consistently reach the 15 percent plateau.

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The Trump Bounce

By Jim Ellis

July 27, 2016 — Though last week’s Republican convention had its political hiccups, Donald Trump appears to have received the bump that he and his campaign hierarchy had desired.

A series of new polls were released Monday, all conducted between the July 21-24 period, just after the Republican conclave ended.

CBS News (July 22-24; 1,118 US registered voters) finds Trump leading Hillary Clinton, 44-43 percent in a head-to-head ballot test, and 40-39-12 percent when Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson is included.

CNN (July 22-24; 882 US registered voters) produced a bit better split for Trump. They see the now official Republican nominee holding a three-point head-to-head edge, 48-45 percent, and a larger 44-39-9-3 percent margin when Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein are added to the polling questionnaire.

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The Minor Influence

By Jim Ellis

July 7, 2016 — National polling shows a clear change in the presidential race when minor party candidates are included, but will they actually be on the ballot?

A new Suffolk University/USA Today poll (June 26-29; 1,000 US registered voters) finds Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump 46-40 percent, but the contest changes to a 39-35-8-3 percent split when the two outlying candidates, Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein, are added to the ballot test questionnaire. Together, they change the contest, routinely driving both major party candidates below 40 percent.

Former New Mexico governor Johnson looks to be assured of 50-state ballot presence. In 2012, he was also the Libertarian nominee and appeared before 49 state electorates and voters in the District of Columbia. He failed to secure ballot access in only one state, Oklahoma. This year, he expects to qualify on all ballots.

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Clinton Up 10 Points, Or One?

By Jim Ellis

June 28, 2016 — Two new national media polls were released over the weekend, and even though they were conducted over the same sampling period their conclusions are quite different.

The Washington Post-ABC News poll (June 20-23; 1,001 adults — undisclosed number of registered voters, 650 certain voters) finds Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump and Gary Johnson, 47-37-7 percent. But, the NBC/Wall Street Journal survey (June 19-23; 1,000 registered voters) finds only a one-point Clinton edge, 39-38-10 percent, over Trump and Johnson, respectively.

In both cases, Clinton’s lead is stronger without Johnson included. The fact that the Johnson-Weld Libertarian Party ticket will be on the ballot in all 50 states makes the third party inclusion more accurate. Without Johnson, WaPo/ABC finds a 51-39 percent Clinton spread; NBC/WSJ sees a 46-41 percent margin.

Green Party candidate Jill Stein was also added to the mutli-candidate question in both surveys. She scored three percent on the WaPo/ABC study, and six percent from NBC/WSJ. It is unlikely, however, that she will gain 50-state ballot standing. Therefore, her national poll position is largely irrelevant at this time.

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Canadian Election Results: A Clear Conservative Victory

The neighboring Canadian election attracted little in the way of American media attention during its short campaign cycle, — in fact much less than the 2010 British vote. But when the votes were counted Monday night, the ruling Conservative Party had scored an impressive victory. The final tally also handed the once dominant Liberal Party its worst defeat in modern history.

Prime Minister Stephen Harper and his Conservative Party attained the majority government they had sought while campaigning across Canada for the past month. Harper’s party won a total of 167 seats in the 308-seat House of Commons, 12 more than the 155 needed to secure majority status. The Conservative Party has now bested the opposition in three consecutive elections since 2006, but yesterday’s vote gave Harper his first outright Parliamentary majority. The victory brought the party full circle from its disastrous 1993 defeat under then-Prime Minister Kim Campbell who nearly drove the Progressive Conservative Party, as it was then known, to extinction, as they lost all but two seats.

For the first time in Canadian history, the left-leaning New Democratic Party (NDP), led by career politician Jack Layton, will be the official opposition to Harper’s government. The NDP managed to capture 102 seats in yesterday’s election, an all-time high for this particular party. The new opposition owes much of its electoral success to the collapse of Liberal Party support and the effervescent performance of leader Layton in the nationally televised pre-election debates. The Layton phenomenon was similar to that of Britain’s Liberal Democrat Party leader Nick Clegg during the 2010 elections in the United Kingdom. Clegg, like Layton in Canada, captured the electorate’s attention, but the Canadian was actually able to transform his political juggernaut into seats in Parliament. Despite finishing a close third in the British national popular vote, Clegg’s Liberal Democrats won only 57 of 650 seats.

The NDP now supplants the Liberal Party, which has either been the governing entity or official opposition since Canada’s confederation in 1867. Michael Ignatieff, the former Harvard professor-turned Liberal Party leader, led the Liberals to their worst defeat ever losing 43 seats, including his own Etobicoke-Lakeshore riding in Toronto. The Liberal Party now holds just 34 seats in the House, having been decimated in the party’s stronghold, the Province of Ontario. Ignatieff struck a defiant and slightly bitter tone in the hours after his defeat and originally did not rule out remaining as the Liberal leader even though many party regulars demanded his ouster. However, later in the day he finally did resign and said he was leaving Canadian politics with his head held high.

The Bloc Quebecois was almost a non-factor in yesterday’s election, losing all but four of the 47 seats they held in the last Parliament. The 43 seat decline matches the size of the Liberal Party’s demise. Gilles Duceppe, resigned as the Bloc’s leader immediately after the result became clear including the loss of his own Laurier-Sainte Marie riding, previously a Bloc stronghold.

The Green Party won its first and only seat in the Canada’s House of Commons yesterday as Elizabeth May was victorious in the British Columbia riding of Saanich-Gulf Islands.

Mr. Harper will now be asked by the Governor General to form a new government with a Conservative majority. He already has five years of experience as Canada’s Prime Minister, but with fairly weak center-left opposition. It will be interesting to see how the House responds to an energetic but more radically liberal opposition as his foil, and how relations change with the Obama Administration in the U.S.
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