The Trump Bounce

By Jim Ellis

July 27, 2016 — Though last week’s Republican convention had its political hiccups, Donald Trump appears to have received the bump that he and his campaign hierarchy had desired.

A series of new polls were released Monday, all conducted between the July 21-24 period, just after the Republican conclave ended.

CBS News (July 22-24; 1,118 US registered voters) finds Trump leading Hillary Clinton, 44-43 percent in a head-to-head ballot test, and 40-39-12 percent when Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson is included.

CNN (July 22-24; 882 US registered voters) produced a bit better split for Trump. They see the now official Republican nominee holding a three-point head-to-head edge, 48-45 percent, and a larger 44-39-9-3 percent margin when Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein are added to the polling questionnaire.

The Morning Consult organization, which polls continually (July 22-24 snapshot; 2,502 US registered voters), finds Trump ahead 44-40 percent. They do not include the third-party candidates when polling their respondents.

Gravis Marketing, a Republican firm, (July 21-22; 3,462 US registered voters) finds the Trump advantage to be 51-49 percent. No undecided or third-party candidate vote is recorded, as all responses are calculated in the Trump vs. Clinton model.

As you can see, the numbers have virtually reversed themselves from data that was being reported immediately before the Republican convention. It is likely to snap back after the Democrats’ conclude at the end of this week. Irrespective of which candidate was leading before or after the GOP national gathering, the results are effectively the same. That is, the race is basically tied, and either candidate could win if the election were held today.

The switch to Trump appears to come from two groups, Independents and Republicans. Both CBS and CNN reported partisan crosstabs. Each are strikingly similar in their conclusions.

CBS finds that Trump takes 82 percent of the Republican vote with six percent going to Clinton. Among Democrats, 84 percent are saying they will support their party nominee as opposed to 11 percent straying to Trump. Among self-identified Independents, CBS sees them splitting in Trump’s favor, 43-35 percent.

CNN’s splits are almost identical, though Clinton fares better among Democrats here than she does in the CBS data. Among Republicans, Trump’s split is 90-8 percent. Clinton snares Democrats by a similar 88-7 percent margin. Trump does even better among Independents according to CNN, scoring a support factor is 50-37 percent.

Obviously, these numbers are very fluid and will change most likely by the end of this week after the Dems tell their story to a national audience. Likely the most encouraging factor for Trump is his solid performance among Republicans, which is equal to, or better than, Clinton’s standing among Democrats.

Considering the Never Trump effort at the Republican convention and Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) taking the national stage and then not endorsing the nominee, the results show that Trump came through the convention in about as strong a position as possible.

Hillary Clinton will try to capture the same type of result in her own convention during the balance of this week.

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