Tag Archives: Georgia

Today’s Primaries; Libertarians Reject National Nominee; Two Major Unions Endorse Rep. Omar’s Opponent

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, June 18, 2024

Primaries

Virginia Republican Congressman Bob Good (R-Lynchburg)

Today’s Vote: Georgia, Oklahoma, Virginia — Another round of primary elections is on tap today, with voters in Oklahoma and Virginia casting ballots in their full primaries, while certain Georgia districts will host runoff elections. The races of most interest come in central Virginia, where two-term Rep. Bob Good (R-Lynchburg) faces a serious opponent in state Sen. John McGuire (R-Manakin Sabot). This is a contest that could feature the first challenger victory of the primary season. At this point in contested House Republican and Democratic primaries, the incumbents are 11-0.

To complicate matters for Rep. Good, this is the first time he has faced a primary election. His two previous nominations were won through district conventions. Additionally, former President Donald Trump has endorsed McGuire, and ex-Speaker Kevin McCarthy has raised substantial money toward a Super PAC that is attempting to unseat Good. The congressman was one of the leaders of the movement that ousted McCarthy from the Speakership.

House Appropriations Committee chairman Tom Cole (R-OK) is facing a multi-million dollar campaign coming from businessman Paul Bondar. Both men are heavily attacking each other; Rep. Cole hitting Bondar as a recent transplant from Texas, and the challenger attacking the incumbent as being out of touch with the district. Rep. Cole still favored for renomination.

The major runoff to be decided comes in western Georgia, where former Trump White House aide Brian Jack and state Sen. Mike Dugan (R-Carrollton) battle each other. Jack came close to winning the nomination outright in May but fell just short. Therefore, he appears to be a clear favorite heading into the secondary election.

President

Colorado: Libertarians Reject National Nominee — The Colorado Libertarian Party leadership, saying that the national party’s nominee, Chase Oliver, is “too moderate,” announced yesterday that they will not slate him for the general election. Instead, the state party leaders will inform the Colorado secretary of state as to whom the local organization will choose prior to the ballot certification deadline.

The Libertarian Party is the only minor party where in 2020 their nominee, Jo Jorgensen, had 50-state ballot access; 48 under the party name and in two, Alabama and Tennessee, where she appeared on the Independent line. Along with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (I) and Green Party candidate Jill Stein, the non-Democratic and Republican finalists will likely be significant in the swing states where they appear on the ballot. In Colorado, the Libertarian line will only make a minor difference as President Joe Biden is a heavy favorite to win the state.

House

MN-5: Two Major Unions Endorse Rep. Omar’s Opponent — While three-term Minnesota US Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minneapolis) just launched a television ad talking about how proud she is to represent her constituents, two important labor unions endorsed her Democratic primary opponent, former Minneapolis City Councilman Don Samuels. The United Steelworkers and the International Union of Operating Engineers both issued endorsements for Samuels, the campaign announced yesterday. In 2022, Samuels held Rep. Omar to a 50-48 percent renomination victory. The two again do battle in the state’s Aug. 13 primary election.

Rep. Omar is a member of the far left “Squad” within the House, and two other of its members, Reps. Cori Bush (D-MO) and Jamaal Bowman (D-NY), also face strong Democratic primary challenges in the coming weeks.

Tuesday’s Primary Results

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, May 22, 2024

Primary Results

California Assemblyman Vince Fong (R-Bakersfield) / Photo by Kevin Sanders for California Globe

CA-20: Fong Wins Special Election — California Assemblyman Vince Fong (R-Bakersfield), fresh from winning court challenges that could have prevented him from running for Congress, clinched the special election to replace former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R). Upon certification, Fong will be immediately sworn into the House and increase the party division to 218R – 213D. In last night’s election, Fong defeated Tulare County Sheriff Mike Boudreaux (R) by a 60-40 percent count.

Fong won big in Kern County, 74 percent at this writing, and carried Fresno County with about 55 percent of the vote. Kings County is too close to call, but the small number of votes won’t greatly affect the outcome. Sheriff Boudreaux easily carried his home county of Tulare.

Next, Representative-Elect Fong will again face Sheriff Boudreaux in the 2024 general election this November in a double-Republican general election contest where he will be favored to win a full term.

Georgia: Runoff in District 3; Reps. McBath & Scott Renominated — Both Reps. Lucy McBath (D-Marietta), running in a newly reconfigured 6th District and David Scott (D-Atlanta) were easily renominated last night.

Rep. McBath defeated Cobb County Commissioner Jerica Richardson and state Rep. Mandisha Thomas (D-Red Oak) with a whopping 85 percent of the vote. Rep. Scott defeated six opponents, scoring 58 percent of the vote and winning renomination outright. Both incumbents will face little in the way of re-election challenges in November.

In retiring Rep. Drew Ferguson’s (R-The Rock/Carrollton) open 3rd District, a pair of Republicans will advance to a June 18 runoff election, though former Trump White House aide Brian Jack came close to winning outright. Jack recorded 47 percent of the vote, just short of the 50 percent plus one vote mark that would have clinched the nomination.

Advancing into the runoff with 26 percent is former state Sen. Mike Dugan. Getting as close as he did to the majority threshold gives Jack a major advantage heading into the runoff. The secondary election will be the deciding factor since the eventual Republican nominee will be the prohibitive favorite to win the seat in the general election.

Idaho: Rep. Simpson Clinches Primary Win — Veteran Rep. Mike Simpson (R-Idaho Falls) won renomination for a 14th US House term, defeating two Republican opponents with 57 percent of the vote, at this writing.

The state’s other House member, Rep. Russ Fulcher (R-Meridian) was unopposed for renomination. Idaho also has no US Senate race in this election cycle.

Kentucky: Easy Night for All Incumbents — Half of the state’s congressional delegation faced minor primary opponents and half were unopposed.

Reps. Morgan McGarvey (D-Louisville), Thomas Massie (R-Garrison), and Hal Rogers (R-Somerset) were all renominated for new terms and will have easy runs in the general election. McGarvey won with 84 percent, Massie recorded 76 percent, and Rogers scored an 82 percent preference figure. All are locks to win the general election.

The same November outlook is on tap for unopposed congressional candidates James Comer (R-Tompkinsville), Brett Guthrie (R-Bowling Green), and Andy Barr (R-Lexington).

Oregon: Bynum Defeats McLeod-Skinner; Salinas-Erickson Re-Match — As expected, state Rep. Maxine Dexter (D-Portland) won the crowded 3rd District Democratic primary, which is tantamount to winning the general election and succeeding retiring 14-term Rep. Earl Blumenauer (D-Portland). Dexter, at this writing, was projected the winner with a 53-25 percent margin over former Multnomah County Commissioner Susheela Jayapal, sister to Washington US Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Seattle), and five others.

With the Democratic leadership virtually united in backing state Rep. Janelle Bynum’s (D-Clackamas) attempt to deny 2022 congressional nominee Jamie McLeod-Skinner renomination because they viewed the former as the stronger opponent to 5th District freshman Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-Happy Valley), their goal was achieved in a landslide proportion. Rep. Bynum defeated McLeod-Skinner by what looks to be a 70-30 percent margin. Two years ago, McLeod-Skinner won the Democratic congressional primary unseating seven-term Rep. Kurt Schrader.

The CD-5 general election encompasses the state capital city of Salem and the outer southwestern Portland suburbs. This will be one of the most hotly contested House races in the nation.
In the adjacent 6th District, we will see a re-match from the 50-48 percent result posted in 2022. Rep. Andrea Salinas (D-Tigard) will defend her seat against businessman Mike Erickson, who scored a 75 percent victory in last night’s Republican primary. Though the race will be competitive, Rep. Salinas is certainly favored to successfully defend her seat.

In other Oregon results, Rep. Suzanne Bonamici (D-Washington County) was easily renominated for an eighth term with 91 percent of the Democratic primary vote in early returns. Sophomore Rep. Cliff Bentz (R-Ontario) also won renomination for a third term defeating Prineville Mayor Jason Beebe (R) with 81 percent vote preference.

Primary Preview:
Georgia, Idaho, Kentucky, Oregon

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday May 21, 2024

Four states host primary elections today, and though none feature US Senate elections in this cycle several House members face competitive nomination battles.

Georgia

Three House primaries are of note in the Peach State.

Retiring Rep. Drew Ferguson’s (R-The Rock/Carrollton) 3rd District is open, and the eventual GOP nominee will succeed the outgoing congressman. Five candidates are on the ballot, but the race appears to be evolving into a three-way contest among former Trump White House aide Brian Jack, and ex-state Sens. Mike Dugan and Mike Crane.

The western Georgia seat is largely rural with no major population center. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+38. A runoff is likely, meaning a new election for the top two finishers on June 18.

Redistricting changed the congressional map earlier this year, thus drastically altering Rep. Lucy McBath’s (D-Marietta) 7th District. Now labeled District 6, the McBath seat returns to a boundary configuration closer to where she was originally elected in 2018. Coming back to a western Atlanta suburban seat, Rep. McBath now faces Democratic competition in the person of Cobb County Commissioner Jerica Richardson and state Rep. Mandisha Thomas (D-Red Oak). Though Rep. McBath’s challengers are elected officials, neither seems to have made a major effort in this primary. Therefore, expect McBath to win outright tonight.

Another Democratic member facing a primary challenge is veteran Rep. David Scott (D-Atlanta), which is nothing new for him. Throughout his 22-year congressional career, Rep. Scott has routinely faced primary challenges. This year, he has six opponents including Marcus Flowers who raised almost $13 million in a 2022 challenge against Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Rome). This year, his campaign receipts are in the more modest $200,000 range. He is the largest fundraiser against Rep. Scott, which tells us the congressman will again prevail.

Reps. Buddy Carter (R-Savannah), Sanford Bishop (D-Albany), Hank Johnson (D-Lithonia), Nikema Williams (D-Atlanta), Rich McCormick (R-Suwanee), Austin Scott (R-Tifton), Andrew Clyde (R-Athens), Mike Collins (R-Jackson), Rick Allen (R-Augusta), and Greene face no primary opposition. Only minor competition awaits Rep. Barry Loudermilk (R-Cassville/Kennesaw).

Idaho

Today will feature a quiet primary election in the Gem State. Rep. Russ Fulcher (R-Meridian) is unopposed, and Rep. Mike Simpson (R-Idaho Falls) faces only a pair of minor challengers.

The most interesting 2024 Idaho election cycle ballot point may be the Ranked Choice Voting proposition that voters will decide in November. Proponents are attempting to qualify an Alaska-style Top Four/Ranked Choice Voting system for the state.

Kentucky

Blue Grass State voters will also see a quiet primary election. No major nomination challenges are occurring though Reps. Morgan McGarvey (D-Louisville), Thomas Massie (R-Garrison), and Hal Rogers (R-Somerset) do face minor competition.

Reps. James Comer (R-Tompkinsville), Brett Guthrie (R-Bowling Green), and Andy Barr (R-Lexington) are unopposed for renomination. All six House incumbents look set for the general election, as well.

Oregon

While Idaho and Kentucky are headed for quiet elections tomorrow, we will see more action unfolding in the Beaver State of Oregon.

Rep. Earl Blumenauer (D-Portland) retiring after serving what will be 14 US House terms leaves a crowded Democratic primary in his wake. With the FiveThirtyEight data organization rating OR-3 as D+43, Blumenauer’s successor will be determined in tonight’s Democratic primary.

Seven Democrats are competing, but the race appears to have winnowed to a battle among state Rep. Maxine Dexter (D-Portland), ex-Multnomah County Commissioner Susheela Jayapal, sister to Washington US Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Seattle), and Gresham City Councilman Eddy Morales. Negative independent expenditures have been run against Jayapal. While a competitive battle, it appears that Dexter has the inside track toward the party nomination tomorrow and winning the general election in November.

Perhaps the most interesting of the evening primaries lies in the Portland/Salem metro area’s 5th District. The national and local Democratic Party leadership want to replace 2022 nominee Jamie McLeod-Skinner, who lost to freshman Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-Happy Valley), with state Rep. Janelle Bynum (D-Clackamas). Bynum has done better on the fundraising front, but we will see if her advantages can rob McLeod-Skinner of the nomination she earned two years ago when upsetting then-Rep. Kurt Schrader (D).

The final primary of the night comes in Oregon’s 6th District, the extra seat the state earned in the 2020 census. Freshman Rep. Andrea Salinas (D-Tigard) won a closer than expected victory in the ’22 election (50-48%) but should have little trouble winning renomination tomorrow night. Her likely Republican opponent is again businessman Mike Erickson who is expected to triumph in the GOP primary.

Expect the 6th District to feature a moderately competitive general election race. Though Salinas under-performed in the 2022 election, the presidential turnout should help increase her 2024 victory percentage.

Trump Leads in All But One Swing State; Utah GOP Nominating Convention Saturday; Kansas State House Leader Nixes Run

THE SWING STATES: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin

By Jim Ellis — Friday, April 26, 2024

President

Bloomberg Swing State Polls: Trump Leading in All But One — Bloomberg News, in partnership with the Morning Consult data organization, conducted presidential polls in all seven of the key swing states during the April 8-13 period. The cumulative data produced very good news for former President Donald Trump, as he is projected to lead in six of the seven states in both head-to-head pairings with President Joe Biden and when the independent and minor candidates are added to the polling questionnaire.

In the one-on-one polling series, Trump leads Biden in a range from one (Pennsylvania) to 10 (North Carolina) percentage points. Only in Michigan does President Biden have an advantage (+2). When Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (I) and the minor party candidates are added, which is the more realistic ballot test, Trump’s advantage either holds or grows. Under this scenario, his advantage stretches from one (Pennsylvania) to a whopping 14 percentage points (Nevada). Again, under this configuration, President Biden would lead only in Michigan (+3).

This polling series represents Trump’s strongest cumulative swing state showing of 2024. The polled states are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Senate

Utah: GOP Nominating Convention Tomorrow — Utah Republican delegates convene tomorrow at the Salt Palace Convention Center in Salt Lake City to consider a large ticket of primary endorsements, the most important of which are for the open US Senate seat and governor.

In Utah, candidates can qualify for the ballot in one of two ways. The first is to obtain 40 percent of the delegate vote at the state convention. Doing so guarantees a primary ballot line for no more than two candidates. The second way is to petition onto the ballot, which means collecting 28,000 valid registered party members’ signatures for a statewide candidacy. For a US House race, the required signature number is 7,000 within the particular district.

Rep. John Curtis (R-Provo), former state House Speaker Brad Wilson, and businessman and podcast host Jason Walton have already qualified for the US Senate Republican primary ballot via petition signatures. Therefore, regardless of whether these men receive the 40 percent delegate support necessary to advance to the primary in tomorrow’s convention, they have each secured a ballot line. Attorney Brett Orrin Hatch, son of the late Sen. Orrin Hatch (R), submitted petitions but is approximately 7,000 signatures short of qualifying. Thus, he can access the ballot only through the delegate process tomorrow.

In the governor’s race, the only candidate qualifying through petition is incumbent Gov. Spencer Cox. For the US House, 1st District Rep. Blake Moore (R-Salt Lake City) is the only incumbent to qualify through petition signatures. The state’s other incumbents, Reps. Celeste Maloy (R-Cedar City) and Burgess Owens (R-Salt Lake City), will qualify through the delegate process. No opponent to either Reps. Maloy or Owens has submitted petition signatures.

House

KS-2: Majority Leader Won’t Run for House — Despite indicating interest in running for Congress when Rep. Jake LaTurner (R-Topeka) announced his retirement last week, Kansas state House Majority Leader Chris Croft (R-Overland Park) yesterday issued a statement saying he will not run.

Croft’s decision is principally due to the fact that his home Overland Park area is fully contained in the 3rd District, thus giving him very little in the way of a political base in District 2. A crowded Republican field is expected to form before the June 1 candidate filing deadline. With a FiveThirtyEight data organization rating of R+21, the Republican primary winner will become the definitive favorite in the general election.

Swing State Polling Favors Trump; Sen. Scott’s Strong Lead in Florida; House Open Seat No. 50; A Challenger in Wisconsin’s 1st District

By Jim Ellis — Monday, April 22, 2024

President

Swing state poll graphic: NJ.com/Politics

Fox News Polls: Trump Faring Well in Swing State Polling — Fox News just went into the field to test the key swing states for the presidential campaign — Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. To win the presidency, former President Donald Trump must convert Georgia and one of the Great Lakes States at a minimum. Should Trump prevail in Georgia and Pennsylvania, for example, he would have enough Electoral College votes to defeat President Joe Biden so long as he held all 25 states that previously twice voted for him.

All of the polls were conducted from April 11-16 and housed sampling universes comprised of 1,126 to 1,198 registered voters from the aforementioned states. In these polls, Trump would lead President Biden 51-45 percent in Georgia, and 49-46 percent in Michigan, while fighting to a draw at 48-48 percent in both Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

When Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and the minor party candidates are added to the questionnaire, the ballot tests change. While Trump continues to top Biden in Georgia and Michigan under this new configuration, he takes a 44-42-8 percent lead in Pennsylvania. Biden, however, forges ahead in Wisconsin, 43-41-9 percent.

Senate

Florida: Sen. Scott’s Stronger Lead — Mainstreet Research, polling for Florida Atlantic University (April 15-17; 815 likely Florida general election voters; text & interactive voice response system) finds Sen. Rick Scott (R) in much stronger shape against presumed Democratic nominee and former Congresswoman Debbie Mursell-Powell. According to the FAU numbers, Sen. Scott scores a 53-36 percent advantage.

Earlier in April, Ipsos Research, for USA Today (April 5-7; 1,014 Florida adults; online) found the senator’s lead at 36-26 percent, though this poll did not isolate registered voters. Emerson College (April 3-7; 608 likely Florida general election voters; multiple sampling techniques) reported a 45-38 percent ballot test, also in Sen. Scott’s favor.

House

KS-2: Open Seat #50 — Two-term Jayhawk State US Rep. Jake LaTurner (R-Topeka) surprisingly announced late last week that he will not seek re-election later this year, and further stated that he would not enter any of the Kansas statewide contests in 2026. Gov. Laura Kelly (D) will be ineligible to seek a third term at that time, and speculation was already surrounding Rep. LaTurner as a possible gubernatorial candidate.

The congressman, at the age of 36, is the youngest Republican House member. Prior to winning the congressional office in 2020, LaTurner had served as Kansas’s State Treasurer and was twice elected to the state Senate.

The LaTurner decision means there are 50 US House seats that will be open for the next election, 25 from the Democratic Conference, 24 from the Republicans, and one newly created district in Alabama. The GOP nominee will be the favorite to hold the seat in November. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+21. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks KS-2 as the 83rd most vulnerable seat in the Republican Conference.

WI-1: Ex-Congressman to Challenge Rep. Steil — Former Wisconsin Congressman Peter Barca (D), who represented the 1st Congressional District for one term (1993-1995) before losing his seat to Republican Mark Neumann, announced that he will challenge House Administration Committee chairman Bryan Steil (R-Janesville) later this year.

After his congressional defeat, Barca returned to the state Assembly, the body from which he first came to Congress, winning a seat in 2008. He would serve another 10 years before Gov. Tony Evers (D) appointed him Secretary of the Department of Revenue.

The southern Wisconsin 1st District is competitive. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat R+6, but the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate only a 49.4R – 48.3D partisan lean. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks WI-1 as the 21st most vulnerable seat in the Republican Conference.

Still, Barca will have a difficult time unseating Rep. Steil. From the Federal Election Commission financial disclosure reports just released for the period ending March 31, Rep. Steil holds just over $4 million in his campaign account.

April-May Primary Outlook – Part II

Primaries

Today, we conclude our early primary outlook with a recap of the May 14 primaries in Maryland, Nebraska, and West Virginia, and the May 21 contests in Georgia, Idaho, Kentucky, and Oregon.

Maryland

May 14 will host a very active day in Maryland politics. Voters will choose nominees for an open US Senate race and three open House seats which, in most cases, will determine who will also win the general election.

The big statewide race features US Rep. David Trone (D-Potomac) and Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks vying for the open US Senate Democratic nomination to succeed retiring Sen. Ben Cardin (D). Cardin spent more than $24 million on his campaign before the end of 2023, but still has not fully pulled away from Alsobrooks in the polling. The winner will face former two-term Gov. Larry Hogan (R) in what is now a competitive general election even in this most Democratic of states.

Eleven-term Rep. Dutch Ruppersberger (D-Cockeysville) is retiring and leaves a six-way Democratic primary in his wake. The odds-on favorite to capture the party nomination and the seat in the general is Baltimore County Executive Johnny Olszewski (D), who already represents more people than the number who reside in a congressional district. State Delegate Harry Bhandari (D-Parkville) is one of the top contenders, but the race is Olszewski’s to lose.

With Rep. John Sarbanes (D-Baltimore) retiring, perhaps the largest congressional field in the country has assembled. A total of 22 Democrats have filed for the primary in a district where the party nominee will easily win the seat in November. Among the almost two dozen candidates are two state senators and three state delegates. With so many competing candidates, the party nomination is completely up for grabs.

Rep. Trone’s open 6th CD features crowded primaries for both parties in what should lead to a competitive general election. Democrats have fielded 14 candidates including April McClain Delaney, a former Commerce Department official who is married to former US Rep. John Delaney, and a pair of state delegates.

Republicans see seven contenders, two of whom have won major primaries but gone down to defeat in the general elections because they are too conservative for the region. Dan Cox, the 2022 GOP gubernatorial nominee and two-time congressional nominee and ex-state Delegate Neil Parrott, are the two most well-known Republicans competing for the nomination. Should one of them top the GOP field, the edge goes to the eventual Democratic nominee in a district that should be considered a toss-up.

Reps. Andy Harris (R-Cambridge), Glenn Ivey (D-Cheverly), Steny Hoyer (D-Mechanicsville), Kweisi Mfume (D-Baltimore) and Jamie Raskin (D-Takoma Park) all face minor primary opposition.

Nebraska

The Cornhusker State features both US Senate seats up for election in 2024. The second due to a previous resignation, but neither Sen. Deb Fischer (R) and appointed Sen. Pete Ricketts (R) face major competition in the Republican primary nor general election.

While Rep. Don Bacon (R-Papillion) will be embroiled in another tough general election battle in the Omaha anchored 2nd District, neither he nor state senator and 2022 congressional nominee Tony Vargas (D) have serious primary opposition.

Reps. Mike Flood (R-Norfolk) and Adrian Smith (R-Gering), whose district encompasses all or parts of 80 of Nebraska’s 93 counties in a seat that stretches from Wyoming to Iowa, face only minor primary opposition.

West Virginia

The Mountain State features open Senate and gubernatorial races; Republicans are favored in both contests. Sen. Joe Manchin’s (D) retirement makes the GOP eventual nominee, likely Gov. Jim Justice who is expected to defeat Rep. Alex Mooney (R-Charles Town), the prohibitive favorite. Wheeling Mayor Glenn Elliott is favored to win the Democratic primary.

The open Republican gubernatorial primary is a spirited contest featuring Attorney General Patrick Morrisey (R), who leads in all polls, and two sons of current West Virginia office holders. Former state Delegate Moore Capito and businessman Chris Miller, sons of US Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R) and Rep. Carol Miller (R-Huntington), are battling for the nomination as is Secretary of State Mac Warner. The primary winner will become a strong favorite against the presumptive Democratic nominee, Huntington Mayor Steve Williams.

Rep. Mooney’s open 2nd District yields a Republican primary of five candidates, including state Treasurer Riley Moore, a nephew to Sen. Capito. Moore is a clear favorite to win the party nomination and defeat presumptive Democratic nominee Steven Wendelin in the general election.

Georgia

While the Peach State is arguably the most pivotal domain in the presidential election, 2024 is a rather quiet year for in-state Georgia politics. There is very little competition in the general election, but we do see three primaries of note.

In GOP Rep. Drew Ferguson’s open 3rd District, six Republicans compete for the party nomination including state Sen. Mike Dugan (R-Carrollton), two ex-legislators, and a former Trump White House aide. The two top finishers being forced into a June 18 runoff election is the likely primary outcome. In a district that 538 rates R+38, the eventual Republican nominee is a lock to win the general election.

Two Democratic members face primary opposition. Because of the latest court-ordered redistricting directive, Rep. Lucy McBath (D-Marietta) must run in a much different district than the current domain she represents. As a result, she is drawing primary opposition from state Rep. Mandisha Thomas (D-Atlanta) and Cobb County Commissioner Jerica Richardson. Rep. McBath is favored, but the two opponents forcing a runoff is not beyond the realm of possibility. The eventual Democratic nominee will have an easy run in November.

Veteran Rep. David Scott (D-Atlanta), no stranger to facing primary opposition, now has six Democratic opponents including Marcus Flowers, who challenged Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene in 2022. East Point City Councilwoman Karen Rene is the only candidate within the group who has any current political constituency. Rep. Scott is again favored for renomination. GA-13 is safely Democratic in the general election.

Idaho

With no Senate or governor’s race on the ballot, the Idaho election cycle will be uneventful. In the primary, Rep. Russ Fulcher (R-Meridian) faces no primary opposition, while veteran Rep. Mike Simpson (R-Idaho Falls) drew two minor Republican challengers. No change is expected in the Gem State delegation.

Kentucky

The Blue Grass State is another place with little political activity this year. All incumbents are expected to easily retain their congressional seats.

Reps. Morgan McGarvey (D-Louisville), Thomas Massie (R-Garrison), and Hal Rogers (R-Somerset) each face minor opposition in their respective Democratic and Republican primaries.

Oregon

The Beaver State also has no governor or Senate race on the ballot this year, but there are three contested primaries scheduled for May 21.

Rep. Earl Blumenauer (D-Portland), retiring after serving what will be 28 years in the House at the end of the current term, leaves a safe Democratic seat (D+43) for which seven party members will compete. State Rep. Maxine Dexter (D-Portland), a physician, is one of the leading candidates. Former Multnomah County Commissioner Susheela Jayapal, sister to Washington US Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Seattle), and Gresham City Councilor Eddy Morales also appear to be viable contenders. The winner of this plurality primary will take the seat in November.

In the 5th District, Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-Happy Valley) seeks a second term. She defeated Democrat Jamie McLeod-Skinner two years ago but may see a different opponent this year. While McLeod-Skinner is running again, the Democratic establishment, including the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), is instead lining up behind state Rep. Janelle Bynum (D-Clackamas), which likely gives her the inside track toward the nomination. In a seat rated R+3, this will become a national congressional race in the general election.

The 6th District is the new seat that Oregon earned in the 2020 national reapportionment. Drawn as a D+7 district according to the FiveThirtyEight data organization, the first ever congressional race within the new domain finished in a closer manner. Then-state Rep. Andrea Salinas (D) captured the seat with a 50-48 percent victory margin over Republican businessman Mike Erickson.

While Rep. Salinas faces only minor primary competition, the Republican field is more crowded. Erickson returns but will face 2022 gubernatorial candidate David Burch and Dundee Mayor David Russ in the battle for the party nomination. In a presidential year with President Joe Biden expected to post a strong double-digit Oregon victory, Rep. Salinas has a much better chance of posting a wider margin in the ’24 congressional race.

Last Night’s Primary Results; Rep. Buck to Resign; California Projections; Close Polls in North Carolina

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, March 13, 2024

President

Primary/Caucus Results — Primaries were held in three states last night, and even without results from the Hawaii caucuses, both President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump exceeded the bound delegate vote requirement to score first ballot nominations. Therefore, both men become their party’s “presumptive nominee,” meaning they will become the official standard bearer at the respective party conventions in July (Republicans) and August (Democrats).

The Georgia, Mississippi, and Washington primaries went as expected with both Biden and Trump winning with landslide totals against opponents who appear on the ballot but who have withdrawn from the race.

Mississippi was the state that held its full ballot primary last night. Sen. Roger Wicker (R) won renomination against two opponents with just over 60 percent of the vote. Wicker won all but 10 counties in the state from a total universe of 82. All four Magnolia State US House incumbents were either unopposed for renomination or easily won. Freshman Rep. Mike Ezell (R-Pascagoula) had two GOP opponents, and still surpassed 73 percent of the vote. All four: Reps. Trent Kelly (R-Saltillo/Tupelo), Bennie Thompson (D-Bolton), Michael Guest (R-Brandon/Jackson), and Mr. Ezell, now become prohibitive favorites to win again in November.

House

Rep. Ken Buck / Photo by Gage Skidmore

CO-4: Rep. Buck to Resign — Colorado US Rep. Ken Buck (R-Windsor), who had previously made public his intentions not to seek a sixth term later this year, announced yesterday that he will resign much sooner — on March 22. The move initiates the calling of a special congressional election — the fourth in the country prior to the regular general election. Gov. Jared Polis (D) responded that he will schedule the special vote concurrently with the state’s June 25 primary election.

In Colorado, special election nominations are handled through vacancy committees that the local political parties construct. This means the voters will go to the polls only once to fill the balance of the current term.

This system likely plays to Rep. Lauren Boebert’s (R-Silt) detriment. It is highly unlikely that the District 4 vacancy committee members will choose her as the party nominee considering she is still the District 3 incumbent. This also means the dozen announced candidates already vying to replace Rep. Buck will see one of their colleagues likely chosen for the special.

California: More Finalists Projected — As the California ballot counting process moves laboriously along, the Associated Press is projecting that three more candidates will qualify for the general election from the top-two jungle primary. In the Los Angeles-anchored 34th District, both incumbent Rep. Jimmy Gomez (D) and movie executive David Kim (D) will again advance into the general election. This will be the third consecutive election in which the two have faced each other in a double-Democratic contest. In 2022, Rep. Gomez registered only a 51-49 percent general election win over Kim, so another close race is expected later this year.

In the open South San Francisco Bay seat from which veteran Rep. Anna Eshoo (D- Atherton) is retiring, former San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo (D) is assured of advancing to the November election, but his eventual opponent has still not been decided. In second place is San Mateo Supervisor and former state Sen. Joe Simitian (D), who is only 749 votes ahead of Assemblyman Evan Low (D-Campbell) with approximately 26,000 ballots remaining to be counted.

Whoever wins the special will have a major advantage in the subsequent November regular election if the primary electorate chooses someone in the regular primary other than whom the vacancy committee decided upon. Another option the committee may have is to select someone who agrees not to seek a full term. Therefore, we will see more political drama occurring in Colorado as the campaign to replace Rep. Buck continues to unfold.

Governor

North Carolina: Two More Close Polls — Now that Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson (R) and Attorney General Josh Stein (D) are the official gubernatorial nominees of their respective political parties after last Tuesday’s primary vote, Survey USA and the Cygnal firm went into the field to test the general election between the two new official nominees.

The S-USA poll, conducted for WRAL-TV in Raleigh (March 6-9; 850 NC adults; 736 registered North Carolina voters; 598 likely North Carolina general election voters; online), sees AG Stein leading Lt. Gov. Robinson by a tight 44-42 percent margin, which is in the consistent realm of previously released surveys. When asked about presidential preference, the sampling universe would favor former President Trump over President Biden by a 50-45 percent margin in this most critical of swing states.

The Cygnal survey was conducted during the March 6-7 period (600 likely North Carolina voters; live interview & text) and produced a slightly different outcome. While projecting a similarly close result as Survey USA, Cygnal sees Lt. Gov. Robinson leading the gubernatorial race with a 44-39 percent spread. The latter firm also finds former President Trump holding a five point lead over President Biden but with a slightly different 45-40 percent count.