Tag Archives: Georgia

Is RFK Jr. In or Out? Hogan Moves Into a Tie in Maryland; Sheehy Rebounds in Montana; The Race to Replace the Late Rep. Bill Pascrell

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, August 28, 2024

President

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Robert F. Kennedy Jr: Can’t Withdraw in Key States — Though presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (I) wants to withdraw from the ballot in all key battleground states, certain election officials say they won’t or can’t (under state election law) remove his name. It appears that Kennedy’s name will remain on the ballot in Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. It appears he won’t be on in Arizona, Georgia, or Pennsylvania.

Trump campaign pollster Tony Fabrizio released a memo suggesting the preponderance of Kennedy voters would move to former President Donald Trump if their first choice, Kennedy, were not on the ballot. In Michigan, according to Fabrizio, the Kennedy vote breaks 43-41 percent in Trump’s favor. The Nevada Kennedy vote split is a whopping 66-16 percent for Trump; North Carolina, 58-22 percent; and Wisconsin, 55-25 percent. Therefore, the Trump campaign and Kennedy will have to communicate to Kennedy voters in these affected states that RFK Jr. is no longer in the race irrespective of his ballot presence.

Senate

Maryland: Hogan Moves Into Tie: — The latest AARP Maryland poll (conducted jointly by Fabrizio Ward & Associates (R) and Impact Research (D); Aug. 14-20; 600 likely Maryland general election voters; oversample of 482 likely voters over age 50; oversample of 176 black likely voters; 60 percent live interview; 40 percent text) projects that former Gov. Larry Hogan (R) and Prince Georges County Executive Angela Alsobrooks (D) are deadlocked with each attracting 46 percent support.

These results are much different than the last publicly released ballot test survey, that from Public Policy Polling, conducted over the June 19-20 period. According to those results, Alsobrooks held a 48-40 percent lead. Before, Emerson College and Concord Public Opinion Partners conducted pre-May 14 Maryland primary polls. The two found Alsobrooks leading by two and five points, respectively. The AARP data puts the Maryland Senate race into an entirely different competitive prism. Should this tight electoral pattern continue, the Maryland Senate race will move into the top tier of competitive statewide contests.

Montana: Sheehy Rebounds — A new Public Opinion Strategies survey (Aug. 18-20; 500 likely Montana voters; live interview) finds retired Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy (R) climbing back into the lead over veteran Montana Sen. Jon Tester (D). According to the POS results, Sheehy leads the three-term incumbent, 51-44 percent.

Earlier in the month, RMG Research, polling for the Napolitan Institute (Aug. 6-14; 540 registered Montana voters) saw Tester leading 49-44 percent. Even the latter poll, however, flips to Sheehy if people believe that the Montana race will flip the Senate to Republican control. Under this argument, the ballot test reverses in Sheehy’s favor by a 55-37 percent mark.

Aside from converting the West Virginia Democratic Senate seat, which appears to be a lock for the GOP, Montana is clearly the next best contest for Republicans to topple a Democratic senator and claim a bare minimum Senate majority.

House

NJ-9: Endorsements & a Drop Out — State Sen. Nellie Pou (D-Paterson) received a big bounce in her effort to replace the late Rep. Bill Pascrell (D-Paterson) on the New Jersey general election ballot. New Jersey politics, of which the local county party chairmen have powerful positions, is still machine driven. For the coming special Democratic Party meeting to replace Pascrell, all three of the 9th District’s county chairmen, those from Passaic, Bergen, and Hudson counties, have endorsed the local state senator.

In another pre-meeting event, Paterson Mayor André Sayegh, thought to be the late congressman’s choice to succeed him, announced that he is removing himself from consideration. The remaining candidates are: General Assembly Speaker Pro Tempore Benjie Wimberly (D-Paterson), Assemblywoman Shavonda Sumter (D-Paterson), and state Sen. Pou.

RFK Jr.’s Ballot Status;
Dahlstrom Withdraws in Alaska;
NJ-9 Replacement Nominee Selection;
New Hampshire Pre-Primary Poll

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, August 27, 2024

President

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (I) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

RFK Jr: Current Ballot Status — Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (I) on Friday announced that he will suspend his campaign in battleground states but remain in places where the race is not as competitive. Which, however, are those states? It’s clear he will not compete in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, domains that all agree are battlegrounds, but what about some others that may be on the competitiveness cusp? Kennedy has qualified for the ballot in Alaska, Maine, Nebraska, and New Mexico, all of which under certain circumstances could become close.

Alaska and Maine employ the Ranked Choice Voting system, which could change the outcome of the initial ballot count if no one secures majority support. Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District is a battleground area and, depending upon the outcome of other key battleground domains, could cause a tie in the Electoral College. New Mexico has shown some close polling before President Joe Biden exited the race, but could it tighten again in the remaining weeks? Therefore, while Kennedy is out of the key battlegrounds and has endorsed former President Donald Trump, where he will or will not remain on the ballot is still open to some question.

House

AK-AL: Dahlstrom Withdraws — Republicans scored a major break in the Alaska at-large congressional race. Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom (R), who finished third in the Aug. 20 jungle primary, and thus advances into the general election under the Alaska top four voting system, announced on Friday that she is ending her congressional campaign. This will allow second-place finisher Nick Begich III (R) to challenge Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Bethel) in a one-on-one general election battle.

The Dahlstrom move increases the Republican chances of victory, though Rep. Peltola still should be considered at least a slight early general election favorite. Though all of the primary ballots are still not recorded, it does appear that she exceeded the 50 pecent mark. This would be significant heading into the general election, though under a larger turnout and a united Republican Party, Begich’s chances significantly increase.

There will be a fourth-place finisher advancing, too, however the individual’s vote count – fourth position is still undecided – is less than 1,000, so chances are strong that said individual will either drop out or only be a minimal factor in November.

NJ-9: Replacement Nominee to be Selected — Individuals contemplating whether to run now to replace New Jersey’s late Rep. Bill Pascrell (D-Paterson) don’t have much time to decide. Under state law, the ballots become locked on Aug. 29, so the 9th District Democratic party has only three days this week to choose a replacement nominee.

Indicating they want to be considered for the nomination are state Assembly members Shavonda Sumter (D-Paterson) and Speaker Pro Tempore Benjie Wimberly (D-Paterson). Paterson Mayor Andre Sayegh is also a potential candidate. The committee members’ choice will immediately become a heavy favorite to succeed Pascrell. The Republican nominee is sales consultant Billy Prempeh, who held Rep. Pascrell to a 55-45 percent victory margin in 2022.

States

New Hampshire: Pre-Primary Statewide Poll — The University of New Hampshire conducted their regular Granite State poll, this in anticipation of the state’s late Sept. 10 primary election.

As other data has shown, ex-Sen. Kelly Ayotte maintains a strong Republican primary advantage over former state Senate president and 2022 Senate candidate Chuck Morse. In this poll, which is her best showing, Ayotte leads Morse by a whopping 65-21 percent. On the Democratic side, we see a closer race, but one with a consistent leader, former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig. In this survey, Craig notches a 39-30 percent edge over Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington.

In the US House races, Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) has only minor opposition in the Democratic primary. In the crowded Republican primary, former executive councilor and ex-state Sen. Russell Prescott holds a 19-10 percent advantage over Manchester City Alderman Joseph Kelly Lavasseur with no other candidate reaching double digits.

In open District 2, from which Rep. Annie Kuster (D-Hopkinton) is retiring, former Biden Administration official Maggie Goodlander leads the Democratic primary over former executive council member and 2016 Democratic gubernatorial nominee Colin Van Ostern. The split is 34-28 percent, which is closer than other polls have indicated. This could suggest that Van Ostern has developed momentum heading into the primary election. On the Republican side, business consultant Vikram Mansharamani has a small 21-17 percent edge over businesswoman Lily Tang Williams and 10 others.

Harris: A Tough Road Ahead

Vice President Kamala Harris: a tough path to winning in November. (Photo by Gage Skidmore)

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, July 23, 2024

President

While Vice President Kamala Harris is well positioned to replace President Joe Biden as the 2024 Democratic presidential nominee, her task of winning the general election is anything but easy. New polls in the key swing states start her in an underdog position in virtually every key place that will determine the final outcome.

As we know, there are six states considered prime swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Before Biden announced his exit, another half-dozen surprising domains were showing competitive signs: Maine, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, and Virginia. This means that former President Donald Trump was either leading in the most recent state survey or within a point or two of moving ahead. It remains to be seen if any of these second-tier swing states truly become competitive in a Trump-Harris race.

July polling in eight of these states illustrates the Harris difficulty factor in overcoming Trump’s current advantage. None of the states are out of play, since the Trump leads are all in single digits, but the fact that she would have to simultaneously hold nine of 12 domains increases the difficulty factor.

Vice President Harris’ biggest problem is that three of the states, Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada, appear locked for Trump. We have seen 26 publicly released polls from Arizona since January 1, and Trump leads in all. The Public Policy Polling organization conducted a Grand Canyon State survey during the July 19-20 period (736 registered Arizona voters), and Trump holds a six-point, 46-40 percent, advantage against Harris.

In Georgia, 24 Trump-Biden polls were conducted in 2024, and as in Arizona, Trump leads all. Two Trump-Harris polls have been conducted in July. The University of Georgia for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution newspaper (July 9-18; 1,000 likely Georgia voters) finds Trump holding a five-point edge over VP Harris. Insider Advantage (July 15-16; 800 likely Georgia voters) projects an even larger 10-point lead.

Nevada is turning in similar numbers. In 2024, a total of 22 Trump-Biden polls have been released, and Trump led in 21 with one tie. Insider Advantage conducted the most recent Trump-Harris poll (July 15-16; 800 likely Nevada voters) and Trump holds a 10-point, 50-40 percent, margin over the vice president.

These three states are significant because the data suggests that they are solid for Trump. Should he carry through and win them all, the former president would add 33 electoral votes to his 2020 national total, meaning he would be literally just one state away from winning the national election.

This is what makes Harris’s path difficult. Her margin of error if conceding Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada is just one state.

Therefore, looking at the remaining top-tier swings of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, Harris would have to sweep them.

Today, she trails Trump in Michigan by five percentage points according to Democratic pollster Public Policy Polling (July 17-18; 650 registered Michigan voters)

The latest Pennsylvania numbers tell a similar tale. SoCal Research (July 20-21; 500 likely Pennsylvania voters) yields Trump a 50-46 percent edge over Harris.

In Wisconsin, Harris fares a bit better, but still could easily lose. The Civiqs research organization, polling for Daily Kos Elections (July 13-16; 514 registered Wisconsin voters), sees Trump and Harris deadlocked at 48 percent apiece.

There is some current data appearing from the second tier, though no July polling has been released for Maine, Minnesota, New Jersey, and New Mexico.

In New Hampshire, a state the former president twice lost to Hillary Clinton and President Biden, a group called Praecones Analytica just tested the electorate (July 19-21; 601 registered New Hampshire voters) and shows Trump holding a one-point, 40-39 percent, edge over VP Harris.

Finally, Florida Atlantic University tested the Virginia electorate with a released small sample survey (July 14-15; 301 registered Virginia voters) and projects Trump with a 41-40 percent lead over Harris.

As you can see, the point deficit in any of the nine first- and second-tier swing and potentially competitive states is not insurmountable in any instance. The vice president’s problem is that she must win all of these swing states, assuming Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada continue their year-long trend of favoring former President Trump. Therefore, of the remaining targets, Vice President Harris must run the table if she is to claim the White House since her margin of error is virtually depleted.

New Hampshire & New Mexico

Could New Hampshire & New Mexico be in play for Republicans?

By Jim Ellis — Friday, July 19, 2024

President

Even before the Trump assassination attempt and the Republican National Convention commenced, polling was beginning to suggest that some unusual states were venturing into the competitive realm.

At this point in the election cycle, it appears that the top conversion targets for the Trump campaign are Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada. Together, these states would deliver 33 of the 35 conversion electoral votes (from those states that voted for President Biden in 2020 but are strong potential Trump states in 2024) the former president would need to win the national election.

In the trio of these states since the beginning of this year, Trump has not trailed in any of the cumulative 62 polls from 15 different pollsters conducted in the three entities. If these states vote Trump in 2024, then the electoral map significantly changes.

Obviously, beyond Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada, the three commonly discussed Great Lakes states are clear battleground regions: Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Now, however, cumulative polling suggests other places could be potential Trump conversion opportunities. It is important, however, to determine which might legitimate prospects to flip as compared to those where the newly crowned Republican nominee could do well but might only come close to President Biden’s vote percentage.

The states in question are Maine, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, and Virginia. One victory in any of the aforementioned, or converting the 2nd Congressional District of Nebraska (via an Electoral College tie), would award the election to former President Trump, assuming all 25 states that he twice carried return to his column.

While a Trump plurality victory is certainly within the realm of possibility in Maine since polling suggests his lead in the northern ME-2 district is at or near 20 percentage points, his chances of losing the 1st District by less than such a spread are good. Therefore, Trump could reasonably place first in Maine. His problem is the state’s Ranked Choice Voting system. Because it is doubtful he could secure majority support in the state — more than 50 percent — Trump would likely lose to President Biden in the RCV rounds.

Minnesota is the most loyal Democratic state in modern presidential campaign history. The last time the Land of 10,000 Lakes voted for a Republican in the national election came in 1972 when the state chose then-President Richard Nixon over then-Sen. George McGovern (D). Every other state has voted for a Republican at least one time since that election. In 2016, Mr. Trump came within 1.5 points of Hillary Clinton in Minnesota, which is probably the best he could do in 2024.

New Jersey is a state where Republicans poll better than they run, unlike some of the southern states where the opposite is true. The latest publicly released survey (co/efficient; June 26-27; 810 likely New Jersey general election voters; live interview & text) found Trump actually posting a slight 41-40 percent lead over President Biden in the Garden State. Such a margin is unlikely to occur when actual votes are cast, making New Jersey a “fool’s gold” state for Republicans.

Virginia also is unlikely to flip. The Washington, DC metro area in its entirety, meaning the city itself as well as the Northern Virginia and Maryland suburbs, is historically Trump’s worst-performing area in the country. Therefore, looking at the increased population in northern Virginia and Trump’s unpopularity in the region suggests that his three-point deficit spread found in the July 12-15 Florida Atlantic University survey of 918 likely Virginia voters is the closest that Trump will come to victory in the state.

The New Hampshire and New Mexico situations, however, look different. Both states are small, campaigning is relatively cheap, and though they have Democratic voting histories certainly since 2016, both could be seriously in play come November.

New Hampshire has elected a Republican governor in four straight elections and though outgoing Gov. Chris Sununu (R) is no fan of Trump’s, he pledged to vote for him and if the state is in a position to make a national difference, the governor will put the campaign levers in place to help push Trump over the top.

New Hampshire, however, has not been kind to the Republican presidential candidates. Since the 2012 presidential election, national Republican nominees have averaged only 46.1 percent of the vote as compared to the Democratic contenders 50.5 percent. Yet, the Granite State still has swing characteristics.

The New Mexico numbers are slightly worse than those in New Hampshire. The cumulative average in presidential races since 2012, inclusive, finds the Democratic nominee attracting a mean average of 51.8 percent compared to the Republicans’ 42.1 percent. Yet, with a plurality Hispanic Voting Age Population figure (44.3 percent Hispanic; 40.5 percent Anglo), and more Hispanic voters professing openness toward Republicans, the state may well be closer in 2024 than what previous statistics show.

If the Trump campaign is to overcome their electoral vote deficit, they must first expand the playing field, which they appear to be doing, continue to concentrate on Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, and then invest in some longer-shot states in the hope that one comes through. Two such candidates for long-shot victory are clearly New Hampshire and New Mexico.

Surprising Swing State Polling

SWING STATES: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, July 9, 2024

Polling

Bloomberg News, partnering with the Morning Consult public affairs organization, released post-debate polling data in the seven key swing states during the July 4th holiday break. The survey results raised eyebrows in several ways.

Morning Consult conducted the studies in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. They surveyed voters from July 1-4 in Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. In Arizona, Michigan, and Wisconsin, the sampling period was extended to a fifth day, expanding the interview time to July 1-5.

The sampling universe in each state spanned from a low of 452 registered voters (Nevada) to a high of 794 registered voters (Pennsylvania). In each case, the respondent universe was selected through a stratified sampling process and the individuals answered the survey questions online.

In each state, the pollsters tested President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump with Independents Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and usually a combination of the other independent or minor party candidates, Jill Stein (Green Party), Dr. Cornel West (Independent), and Chase Oliver (Libertarian Party). The pollsters also asked a follow-up question that isolated Biden and Trump in a one-on-one pairing.

The Bloomberg/Morning Consult analysis indicated that the debate, contrary to the opinion of many television news pundits and several Democratic officials who are calling for President Biden to withdraw from the race, has changed little in terms of the political horse race among the states that will largely determine the November outcome.

This may or may not be the case, and further research is needed to better determine where the national election stands. Though President Biden was detected as leading in two states, Michigan and Wisconsin, over 55 percent from the aggregate seven-state sample stated their belief that he should withdraw from the campaign. This number includes 58 percent responding in such a manner from the Independent segment and 29 percent who self-identify as Democratic participants.

Conversely, former President Trump hit an all-time high in a Pennsylvania survey, as Bloomberg/Morning Consult detected a seven-point advantage when the two presumptive nominees were tested in a head-to-head question. Staying with the Pennsylvania head-to-head, the Trump support number reached 51 percent, which is the only such result for either candidate within the whole seven-state survey series. In two other states, Arizona and Nevada, Trump reached the 48 percent plateau on the head-to-head question. President Biden reached as high as 48 percent in only one state, Michigan, again in response to the head-to-head question.

In Arizona, Trump led Biden by seven percentage points when the independent and minor party candidates were included. His lead dropped to three points in the head-to-head question. The seven points represented an improvement here for Trump, though he has led in all 20 Arizona polls conducted since Jan. 1.

The Georgia numbers still favored Trump but appeared to be down a bit from other recent surveys. As in Arizona, Trump has led in every poll conducted here (17) since the first of this year.

Michigan has been back and forth all year, usually by a point or two. This Bloomberg/ Morning Consult poll, however, stakes Biden to one of his better showings, leading Trump by six points within the multiple candidate field and five in the head-to-head pairing.

Nevada is the third state where Trump has led or been tied in all 2024 surveys (17). In the Bloomberg/MC poll, his numbers are still strong. Within the multiple candidate field, Trump holds a six-point lead as compared to a plus-3 margin in the head-to-head.

North Carolina is another state where Trump continues to poll well. In the Bloomberg/MC study, he leads the multiple candidate field by two points, and three over Biden in the head-to-head. This from a state where he led in only 25 percent of the 2020 polls yet carried the final total by just over a percentage point.

As previously mentioned, Trump scores his best head-to-head number of the cycle (plus-7) in the Bloomberg/MC Pennsylvania poll. From the multiple candidate field, his lead is three percentage points.

Wisconsin is the other state where Biden forges a current lead according to the Bloomberg/MC data. Here, the president has a two-point edge within the multiple candidate field and three over Trump in the head-to-head.

As we have seen, several of the data segments produced unusual patterns, meaning more information is needed to obtain a better post-debate picture of how the electorate is responding. Even though this polling series generally shows Biden rebounding from the debate, it appears that former President Trump would convert four states (Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania) and keep North Carolina, which would allow him to exceed the 270 electoral vote threshold (287 EVs) and claim the presidency.

More States in Play

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, July 3, 2024

President

MORE SWING STATES IN PLAY: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Wisconsin (and possibly Maine, New Hampshire, New Jersey, and New Mexico)

Recent polling data suggests that several surprising states are becoming competitive. In addition to Minnesota and Virginia, the former of which has been close for weeks and the latter showing dead heat signs within the last 14 days, four more states are now returning tight polling numbers.

As has been the case since the beginning of the year, Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada have been reporting strong numbers for former President Donald Trump. In fact, the 19 polls conducted in Arizona since Jan. 1 finds Trump leading in each. The Georgia data projects a similar pattern. There, 16 surveys have been conducted in 2024, again with Trump leading in all. The Nevada numbers report the same pattern as Georgia.

It’s also been common political knowledge that the three key Great Lakes states, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, have been in the toss-up category throughout the current year. Recently, the three have all leaned towards Trump, and likely will report an exaggerated trend at least for the short-term post-debate period.

If the Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada trends hold through the election, and Trump converts all three, he would only need one more state of any size to win the national election. Now, it appears several others are coming into the observance realm.

New polling finds the race coming into dead heat territory in Maine, New Hampshire, New Jersey, and New Mexico, all of which have been Democratic strongholds for years.

The last time Maine and New Jersey went for a Republican presidential candidate occurred in 1988, when the states’ electorates supported George H.W. Bush over Michael Dukakis. New Hampshire last voted Republican in 2000 for George W. Bush against Al Gore, while New Mexico supported the latter Bush in 2004 opposite John Kerry. The previously mentioned Minnesota hasn’t voted for a Republican presidential candidate since 1972, while Virginia, like New Mexico, also favored then-President Bush over Kerry 20 years ago.

St. Anselm College on Monday released their latest New Hampshire poll (June 28-29; 1,700 registered New Hampshire voters; online) and sees Trump taking a 44-42-4 percent lead over President Joe Biden and Independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

The co/efficient firm tested the New Jersey electorate (June 26-27; 810 likely New Jersey voters; live interview & text) and these results also show Trump ahead in an unlikely state, 41-40-7 percent.

The New Mexico data still finds President Biden leading, but barely. The 1892 polling organization (June 19-24; 600 likely New Mexico voters) posts Biden to only a one-point lead, 43-42-8 percent over Trump and Kennedy.

In Minnesota, a place where the two presidential candidates have consistently battled in polls to within three-point margins for most of the year, Emerson College (June 13-18; 1,000 registered Minnesota voters; multiple sampling techniques) recently projected Trump to a one-point edge.

The Critical Insights firm tested the Maine electorate (June 12; 609 registered Maine voters; live interview and online) and found Trump recording a one-point advantage in this state as well, 41-40 percent, with 19 percent going to other candidates. Maine features a Ranked Choice Voting system, so even if Trump manages to secure plurality support in the regular election, he would likely lose in the Ranked Choice rounds.

Fox News conducted the most recent Virginia poll (June 1-3; 1,107 registered Virginia voters; live interview) and this solidly Democratic state, too, turned in a ballot test within dead-heat range. According to the Fox results, Biden would hold a very slim 42-41-9 percent edge.

Typically, a Democratic presidential nominee would not have to exert much effort to hold these aforementioned states in the party column. The fact that they are currently in toss-up range, and all the studies but the New Hampshire poll were conducted before Thursday’s CNN presidential debate, suggests that the electoral map is legitimately becoming more expansive.

At least for the short term, it appears evident that the campaign will expand beyond the traditional seven swing states that have been the deciding factors in the last two elections.

Primary Results; Biden Upside-Down in All But Five States; Surprising Poll for Endangered NY-4 Incumbent

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, June 19, 2024

Primary Results

Former Trump White House aide Brian Jack

Georgia — In the Peach State congressional runoffs, former Trump White House aide Brian Jack, as expected, cruised to a secondary election victory over state Sen. Mike Dugan (R-Carrollton). Jack recorded just under 63 percent of the vote in the preliminary count, thus virtually assuring him of winning the general election in November. He will replace retiring Congressman Drew Ferguson (R-The Rock/Carrollton) in a district the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+38.

In the 2nd District, businessman and former congressional and senatorial candidate Wayne Johnson easily defeated his Republican opponent and will now advance to the general election against 16-term veteran Rep. Sanford Bishop (D-Albany). The Democrats now have a nominee against Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Rome) in District 14. Retired Army Gen. Shawn Harris easily won his runoff election with 69 percent of the vote to claim the party nomination.

OK-4 — The Sooner State’s big race featured an expensive challenge to veteran Rep. Tom Cole (R-Moore/Norman) in the state’s southern 4th Congressional District. Cole, now chairman of the House Appropriations Committee, easily overcame more than $5 million of self-funding expenditure from his Republican primary opponent, businessman Paul Bondar, in capturing just under 65 percent of the vote.

Virginia — The top race of the evening came in Virginia’s 5th Congressional District where state Sen. John McGuire (R-Manakin Sabot) may have defeated Rep. Bob Good (R-Lynchburg) with a razor thin vote margin. It will likely be several days before we see final totals here because the post-election ballots, i.e., those coming in from overseas could make a difference in the outcome.

At this writing, McGuire holds a 315-vote lead over Rep. Good with approximately 96 percent of the vote recorded. There could be as many as 1,800 votes outstanding in addition to the 62,425 votes that the Secretary of State reports as being counted. Both men carried 12 of the district’s 24 counties. One, Appomattox County, appears to be decided in Rep. Good’s favor by just three votes.

Elsewhere in the Old Dominion, retired Navy captain and former congressional candidate Hung Cao was an easy Republican primary winner. He recorded 62 percent of the vote against four Republican opponents. Cao now advances to the general election where he will face an extreme uphill battle against veteran senator and former vice presidential nominee Tim Kaine (D).

In House District 2, businesswoman and Navy veteran Missy Cotter Smasal scored a landslide victory in the Democratic primary. Smasal will now face freshman Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-Virginia Beach) in a district that only slightly favors the Republicans. In the competitive open District 7, voters in both parties confirmed their expected nominees, retired Army Lt. Col. Eugene Vindman for the Democrats and attorney and Iraq and Afghan War veteran Derrick Anderson on the GOP side.

District 10 also featured a crowded, competitive Democratic primary, with the winner having the inside track to replace retiring Rep. Jennifer Wexton (D-Leesburg) who is leaving Congress due to a serious health issue. Her endorsed candidate, state Delegate Suhas Subramanyam (D-Loudoun County), scored a 30-27 percent victory over state Delegate Dan Helmer (D-Fairfax) and 10 others to capture the party nomination.

President

Approval Ratings: Biden Upside-Down in All But Five States — The Morning Consult organization test President Joe Biden’s job approval rating in all 50 states and sees just five where his positive reviews exceed the negative. California is the president’s strongest state where his job approval is plus-8. In the four others, his positive ratings exceed his negative in Maryland (four), New York (two), and Massachusetts and Washington (both one). In the other 45 states, the president’s job performance is under water. His most negative ratings, -63, -50, and -47, come in Wyoming, West Virginia, and North Dakota, respectively.

House

NY-4: Surprising Poll for Endangered Incumbent — McLaughlin & Associates released a poll conducted in late May (May 21-23; 400 likely NY-4 voters; live interview) that finds New York freshman Rep. Anthony D’Esposito (R-Island Park) leading the woman he defeated two years ago, former Hempstead Town Supervisor Laura Guillen, (D) by a 45-38 percent margin. The Empire State’s 4th District is the most Democratic seat a Republican holds in the nation (538: D+10), so this race is a major conversion target in 2024. It becomes one of the key seats in the nation that will determine which party controls the House majority in the next Congress.

Today’s Primaries; Libertarians Reject National Nominee; Two Major Unions Endorse Rep. Omar’s Opponent

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, June 18, 2024

Primaries

Virginia Republican Congressman Bob Good (R-Lynchburg)

Today’s Vote: Georgia, Oklahoma, Virginia — Another round of primary elections is on tap today, with voters in Oklahoma and Virginia casting ballots in their full primaries, while certain Georgia districts will host runoff elections. The races of most interest come in central Virginia, where two-term Rep. Bob Good (R-Lynchburg) faces a serious opponent in state Sen. John McGuire (R-Manakin Sabot). This is a contest that could feature the first challenger victory of the primary season. At this point in contested House Republican and Democratic primaries, the incumbents are 11-0.

To complicate matters for Rep. Good, this is the first time he has faced a primary election. His two previous nominations were won through district conventions. Additionally, former President Donald Trump has endorsed McGuire, and ex-Speaker Kevin McCarthy has raised substantial money toward a Super PAC that is attempting to unseat Good. The congressman was one of the leaders of the movement that ousted McCarthy from the Speakership.

House Appropriations Committee chairman Tom Cole (R-OK) is facing a multi-million dollar campaign coming from businessman Paul Bondar. Both men are heavily attacking each other; Rep. Cole hitting Bondar as a recent transplant from Texas, and the challenger attacking the incumbent as being out of touch with the district. Rep. Cole still favored for renomination.

The major runoff to be decided comes in western Georgia, where former Trump White House aide Brian Jack and state Sen. Mike Dugan (R-Carrollton) battle each other. Jack came close to winning the nomination outright in May but fell just short. Therefore, he appears to be a clear favorite heading into the secondary election.

President

Colorado: Libertarians Reject National Nominee — The Colorado Libertarian Party leadership, saying that the national party’s nominee, Chase Oliver, is “too moderate,” announced yesterday that they will not slate him for the general election. Instead, the state party leaders will inform the Colorado secretary of state as to whom the local organization will choose prior to the ballot certification deadline.

The Libertarian Party is the only minor party where in 2020 their nominee, Jo Jorgensen, had 50-state ballot access; 48 under the party name and in two, Alabama and Tennessee, where she appeared on the Independent line. Along with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (I) and Green Party candidate Jill Stein, the non-Democratic and Republican finalists will likely be significant in the swing states where they appear on the ballot. In Colorado, the Libertarian line will only make a minor difference as President Joe Biden is a heavy favorite to win the state.

House

MN-5: Two Major Unions Endorse Rep. Omar’s Opponent — While three-term Minnesota US Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minneapolis) just launched a television ad talking about how proud she is to represent her constituents, two important labor unions endorsed her Democratic primary opponent, former Minneapolis City Councilman Don Samuels. The United Steelworkers and the International Union of Operating Engineers both issued endorsements for Samuels, the campaign announced yesterday. In 2022, Samuels held Rep. Omar to a 50-48 percent renomination victory. The two again do battle in the state’s Aug. 13 primary election.

Rep. Omar is a member of the far left “Squad” within the House, and two other of its members, Reps. Cori Bush (D-MO) and Jamaal Bowman (D-NY), also face strong Democratic primary challenges in the coming weeks.

Tuesday’s Primary Results

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, May 22, 2024

Primary Results

California Assemblyman Vince Fong (R-Bakersfield) / Photo by Kevin Sanders for California Globe

CA-20: Fong Wins Special Election — California Assemblyman Vince Fong (R-Bakersfield), fresh from winning court challenges that could have prevented him from running for Congress, clinched the special election to replace former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R). Upon certification, Fong will be immediately sworn into the House and increase the party division to 218R – 213D. In last night’s election, Fong defeated Tulare County Sheriff Mike Boudreaux (R) by a 60-40 percent count.

Fong won big in Kern County, 74 percent at this writing, and carried Fresno County with about 55 percent of the vote. Kings County is too close to call, but the small number of votes won’t greatly affect the outcome. Sheriff Boudreaux easily carried his home county of Tulare.

Next, Representative-Elect Fong will again face Sheriff Boudreaux in the 2024 general election this November in a double-Republican general election contest where he will be favored to win a full term.

Georgia: Runoff in District 3; Reps. McBath & Scott Renominated — Both Reps. Lucy McBath (D-Marietta), running in a newly reconfigured 6th District and David Scott (D-Atlanta) were easily renominated last night.

Rep. McBath defeated Cobb County Commissioner Jerica Richardson and state Rep. Mandisha Thomas (D-Red Oak) with a whopping 85 percent of the vote. Rep. Scott defeated six opponents, scoring 58 percent of the vote and winning renomination outright. Both incumbents will face little in the way of re-election challenges in November.

In retiring Rep. Drew Ferguson’s (R-The Rock/Carrollton) open 3rd District, a pair of Republicans will advance to a June 18 runoff election, though former Trump White House aide Brian Jack came close to winning outright. Jack recorded 47 percent of the vote, just short of the 50 percent plus one vote mark that would have clinched the nomination.

Advancing into the runoff with 26 percent is former state Sen. Mike Dugan. Getting as close as he did to the majority threshold gives Jack a major advantage heading into the runoff. The secondary election will be the deciding factor since the eventual Republican nominee will be the prohibitive favorite to win the seat in the general election.

Idaho: Rep. Simpson Clinches Primary Win — Veteran Rep. Mike Simpson (R-Idaho Falls) won renomination for a 14th US House term, defeating two Republican opponents with 57 percent of the vote, at this writing.

The state’s other House member, Rep. Russ Fulcher (R-Meridian) was unopposed for renomination. Idaho also has no US Senate race in this election cycle.

Kentucky: Easy Night for All Incumbents — Half of the state’s congressional delegation faced minor primary opponents and half were unopposed.

Reps. Morgan McGarvey (D-Louisville), Thomas Massie (R-Garrison), and Hal Rogers (R-Somerset) were all renominated for new terms and will have easy runs in the general election. McGarvey won with 84 percent, Massie recorded 76 percent, and Rogers scored an 82 percent preference figure. All are locks to win the general election.

The same November outlook is on tap for unopposed congressional candidates James Comer (R-Tompkinsville), Brett Guthrie (R-Bowling Green), and Andy Barr (R-Lexington).

Oregon: Bynum Defeats McLeod-Skinner; Salinas-Erickson Re-Match — As expected, state Rep. Maxine Dexter (D-Portland) won the crowded 3rd District Democratic primary, which is tantamount to winning the general election and succeeding retiring 14-term Rep. Earl Blumenauer (D-Portland). Dexter, at this writing, was projected the winner with a 53-25 percent margin over former Multnomah County Commissioner Susheela Jayapal, sister to Washington US Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Seattle), and five others.

With the Democratic leadership virtually united in backing state Rep. Janelle Bynum’s (D-Clackamas) attempt to deny 2022 congressional nominee Jamie McLeod-Skinner renomination because they viewed the former as the stronger opponent to 5th District freshman Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-Happy Valley), their goal was achieved in a landslide proportion. Rep. Bynum defeated McLeod-Skinner by what looks to be a 70-30 percent margin. Two years ago, McLeod-Skinner won the Democratic congressional primary unseating seven-term Rep. Kurt Schrader.

The CD-5 general election encompasses the state capital city of Salem and the outer southwestern Portland suburbs. This will be one of the most hotly contested House races in the nation.
In the adjacent 6th District, we will see a re-match from the 50-48 percent result posted in 2022. Rep. Andrea Salinas (D-Tigard) will defend her seat against businessman Mike Erickson, who scored a 75 percent victory in last night’s Republican primary. Though the race will be competitive, Rep. Salinas is certainly favored to successfully defend her seat.

In other Oregon results, Rep. Suzanne Bonamici (D-Washington County) was easily renominated for an eighth term with 91 percent of the Democratic primary vote in early returns. Sophomore Rep. Cliff Bentz (R-Ontario) also won renomination for a third term defeating Prineville Mayor Jason Beebe (R) with 81 percent vote preference.

Primary Preview:
Georgia, Idaho, Kentucky, Oregon

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday May 21, 2024

Four states host primary elections today, and though none feature US Senate elections in this cycle several House members face competitive nomination battles.

Georgia

Three House primaries are of note in the Peach State.

Retiring Rep. Drew Ferguson’s (R-The Rock/Carrollton) 3rd District is open, and the eventual GOP nominee will succeed the outgoing congressman. Five candidates are on the ballot, but the race appears to be evolving into a three-way contest among former Trump White House aide Brian Jack, and ex-state Sens. Mike Dugan and Mike Crane.

The western Georgia seat is largely rural with no major population center. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+38. A runoff is likely, meaning a new election for the top two finishers on June 18.

Redistricting changed the congressional map earlier this year, thus drastically altering Rep. Lucy McBath’s (D-Marietta) 7th District. Now labeled District 6, the McBath seat returns to a boundary configuration closer to where she was originally elected in 2018. Coming back to a western Atlanta suburban seat, Rep. McBath now faces Democratic competition in the person of Cobb County Commissioner Jerica Richardson and state Rep. Mandisha Thomas (D-Red Oak). Though Rep. McBath’s challengers are elected officials, neither seems to have made a major effort in this primary. Therefore, expect McBath to win outright tonight.

Another Democratic member facing a primary challenge is veteran Rep. David Scott (D-Atlanta), which is nothing new for him. Throughout his 22-year congressional career, Rep. Scott has routinely faced primary challenges. This year, he has six opponents including Marcus Flowers who raised almost $13 million in a 2022 challenge against Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Rome). This year, his campaign receipts are in the more modest $200,000 range. He is the largest fundraiser against Rep. Scott, which tells us the congressman will again prevail.

Reps. Buddy Carter (R-Savannah), Sanford Bishop (D-Albany), Hank Johnson (D-Lithonia), Nikema Williams (D-Atlanta), Rich McCormick (R-Suwanee), Austin Scott (R-Tifton), Andrew Clyde (R-Athens), Mike Collins (R-Jackson), Rick Allen (R-Augusta), and Greene face no primary opposition. Only minor competition awaits Rep. Barry Loudermilk (R-Cassville/Kennesaw).

Idaho

Today will feature a quiet primary election in the Gem State. Rep. Russ Fulcher (R-Meridian) is unopposed, and Rep. Mike Simpson (R-Idaho Falls) faces only a pair of minor challengers.

The most interesting 2024 Idaho election cycle ballot point may be the Ranked Choice Voting proposition that voters will decide in November. Proponents are attempting to qualify an Alaska-style Top Four/Ranked Choice Voting system for the state.

Kentucky

Blue Grass State voters will also see a quiet primary election. No major nomination challenges are occurring though Reps. Morgan McGarvey (D-Louisville), Thomas Massie (R-Garrison), and Hal Rogers (R-Somerset) do face minor competition.

Reps. James Comer (R-Tompkinsville), Brett Guthrie (R-Bowling Green), and Andy Barr (R-Lexington) are unopposed for renomination. All six House incumbents look set for the general election, as well.

Oregon

While Idaho and Kentucky are headed for quiet elections tomorrow, we will see more action unfolding in the Beaver State of Oregon.

Rep. Earl Blumenauer (D-Portland) retiring after serving what will be 14 US House terms leaves a crowded Democratic primary in his wake. With the FiveThirtyEight data organization rating OR-3 as D+43, Blumenauer’s successor will be determined in tonight’s Democratic primary.

Seven Democrats are competing, but the race appears to have winnowed to a battle among state Rep. Maxine Dexter (D-Portland), ex-Multnomah County Commissioner Susheela Jayapal, sister to Washington US Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Seattle), and Gresham City Councilman Eddy Morales. Negative independent expenditures have been run against Jayapal. While a competitive battle, it appears that Dexter has the inside track toward the party nomination tomorrow and winning the general election in November.

Perhaps the most interesting of the evening primaries lies in the Portland/Salem metro area’s 5th District. The national and local Democratic Party leadership want to replace 2022 nominee Jamie McLeod-Skinner, who lost to freshman Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-Happy Valley), with state Rep. Janelle Bynum (D-Clackamas). Bynum has done better on the fundraising front, but we will see if her advantages can rob McLeod-Skinner of the nomination she earned two years ago when upsetting then-Rep. Kurt Schrader (D).

The final primary of the night comes in Oregon’s 6th District, the extra seat the state earned in the 2020 census. Freshman Rep. Andrea Salinas (D-Tigard) won a closer than expected victory in the ’22 election (50-48%) but should have little trouble winning renomination tomorrow night. Her likely Republican opponent is again businessman Mike Erickson who is expected to triumph in the GOP primary.

Expect the 6th District to feature a moderately competitive general election race. Though Salinas under-performed in the 2022 election, the presidential turnout should help increase her 2024 victory percentage.