Tag Archives: former president Donald Trump

Biden Confirms He’ll Run Again; Trump Picks Up Endorsements;
A Possible Senate Bid for Police Chief Craig; Casey Announces in PA;
“No Labels” Has Sights Set on Ohio

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, April 12

President

President Joe Biden

President Biden: Plans to Run — In an interview with NBC’s Al Roker, President Biden confirmed that he “plans to run” for re-election, though is not yet ready to make a formal announcement. It is again surprising that the 2024 presidential race on both sides is not coming into form more quickly. With no one launching a serious Democratic primary challenge to the President, he certainly is under no pressure to formally announce his re-election candidacy anytime soon.

Donald Trump: Florida Congressional Endorsements — Former President Donald Trump continues to make inroads from Gov. Ron DeSantis’ home state of Florida. Rep. Cory Mills (R-New Smyrna Beach) announced his endorsement of former President Trump Monday, as did his colleague, Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Naples/Ft. Myers). Previously, Reps. Matt Gaetz (R-Ft. Walton Beach) and Anna Paulina Luna (R-St. Petersburg) had publicly announced their support of Trump.

Senate

Michigan: Ex-Police Chief Craig Looking Toward Senate — Retired Detroit Police Chief James Craig (R) had planned to enter the Michigan governor’s race in 2022 but failed to submit the required number of valid petition signatures. Now, reports are surfacing that Craig is considering entering the open US Senate race. At this point, Michigan School Board member Nikki Snyder is the only current or former Republican elected official to declare for the race. Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) is the most well-known Democrat to step forward.

Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) is not seeking a fifth term. Democrats will be favored to retain the open Michigan seat, but another close election result is expected.

Pennsylvania: Sen. Casey Announces — Pennsylvania Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D) indicated his re-election plans were on hold until he received a clean bill of health from his surgeon. Earlier in the year, Sen. Casey underwent surgery to treat prostate cancer. Apparently, the senator has received positive reports from his physicians, because on Monday he announced his re-election effort.

Sen. Casey, who is the son of the late former Pennsylvania Governor Bob Casey Sr., was first elected in 2006, defeating then-Sen. Rick Santorum (R). He was re-elected in 2012 and 2018 with 54 and 56 percent of the vote, respectively. He will again be favored to clinch a fourth term next year.

States

Ohio: No Labels Files Signatures — The No Labels organization is attempting to qualify for ballot position in many states with the goal of offering centrist candidates in various races, possibly including that of president. The entity has so far qualified for a ballot line in Alaska, Arizona, Colorado, and Oregon. Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose (R) announced Monday that the No Labels organization has petitioned for recognition in the Buckeye State. LaRose indicated that the signature verification process to determine if the group has met the state political party recognition requirement has begun.

Though the No Labels leadership — which includes former US senator and 2000 Democratic vice presidential nominee Joe Lieberman and former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan as national co-chairmen — has so far indicated they are not looking to file a presidential candidate, both parties are wary that they might.

In different states, No Labels could hurt each party. It is also conceivable that Independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema could run for re-election on the No Labels line since the party has qualified in her state of Arizona. The Arizona Democratic Party, however, has filed a lawsuit attempting to invalidate its status claiming the No Labels organization has not completely fulfilled Arizona’s legal requirements.

Trump’s Numbers Under Indictment; House Battles in CA-45, MI-3, NM-2; Morrisey to Run for WVa Governor

By Jim Ellis — Friday, April 7, 2023

President

Former President Donald Trump appears in court with members of his legal team for an arraignment on Tuesday, April 4. (Andrew Kelly/Pool/Reuters)

Under Indictment: Trump’s Numbers — Though under indictment, former President Donald Trump sees his polling numbers continue to improve, this time in three states. His lead over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, and others, has grown according to new surveys from Massachusetts and New Hampshire, while his deficit has tightened in Florida.

Clearly, looking at his flash polling numbers and post-indictment, multi-million dollar fundraising haul, there is no question that former President Trump’s political base is rising to the occasion. The question is, as this legal process will almost assuredly drag on for the foreseeable future, will he be politically sustained for the long run?

The early states next year will be critical for Trump. The court scheduled his next appearance for Dec. 4, which is just two months before the Feb. 5 Iowa Caucuses. At that point, perception could change.

House

CA-45: New Field Forming Against Rep. Steel — Harvard-educated attorney Aditya Pai, who moved to Orange County from India as a child when eight years old, announced that he will join the growing field to challenge two-term Rep. Michelle Steel (R-Orange County) in next March’s all-party jungle primary. Already declared are Garden Grove City Councilwoman Kim Nguyen and attorney Cheyenne Hunt. Jay Chen, the Community College Trustee who held Rep. Steel to a 52-48 percent re-election win in November, is also a potential candidate.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates CA-45 as D+5. Dave’s Redistricting App calculates a 52.2D – 45.9R partisan lean. Rep. Steel was recently added to the Democrats’ Frontline target list. We can expect another competitive campaign here next year.

MI-3: Another Attempt — Financial Advisor Michael Markey (R) intended to run for the House two years ago, but the company he hired to gather petition signatures failed to complete the job and his candidacy was rejected. Now, with a new incumbent in the redrawn 3rd District, freshman Rep. Hillary Scholten (D-Grand Rapids), Markey returns. This time, it is likely he will better handle the campaign mechanics.

Rep. Scholten won the 3rd District after GOP incumbent Peter Meijer was defeated for renomination. For his part, Meijer may run for the Senate. The 2021 redistricting map changed the 3rd CD from one that favored Republicans when then-Rep. Meijer was first elected (R+9 according to the FiveThirtyEight data organization), to its current D+3 configuration.

NM-2: Re-Match on Tap — Former New Mexico Congresswoman Yvette Herrell (R), who lost her re-election bid by a razor-thin 50.3 – 49.7 percent margin to freshman Rep. Gabe Vasquez (D-Las Cruces) is preparing for a re-match. Herrell has already filed a 2024 committee with the Federal Election Commission and has scheduled an April 10 kick-off event for her new campaign that will feature House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA).

The 2nd will yield another competitive congressional contest and promises to be a top Republican conversion target. The district was re-drawn with a 19-point swing from the previous version giving the Democrats a small advantage.

Governor

West Virginia: AG Morrisey to Run for Governor — As has been expected at least since a mid-March National Research, Inc. Republican primary poll found him leading the open GOP field, Attorney General Patrick Morrisey announced that he will enter the 2024 gubernatorial campaign.

In 2018, Morrisey held Sen. Joe Manchin (D) to a 49.6 – 46.3 percent re-election win. He has averaged 55.5 percent of the vote in his three victories as the state’s attorney general. In the 2018 Republican Senatorial primary, Morrisey defeated five opponents with 35 percent of the vote.

Currently, there are eight candidates in the gubernatorial race including Morrisey, Secretary of State Mac Warner, State Auditor J.B. McCuskey, state Delegate Moore Capito (R-Charleston), the son of Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R), and auto dealer Chris Miller, son of US Rep. Carol Miller (R-Huntington). Gov. Jim Justice (R), who is ineligible to seek a third term, is likely to run for the Senate.

High Possibility Sen. Sinema to Join “No Labels” Party in Ariz.; Hutchinson Announces; Justice With Big Lead in WVa; New Candidates in AZ-1, FL-11

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, April 6, 2023

President

Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ)

No Labels Party: AZ Democrats Sue to Disqualify — The No Labels Party is attempting to qualify for the ballot in as many states as possible, and has already done so in Alaska, Arizona, Colorado, and Oregon. The Arizona Democratic Party, however, has filed a lawsuit attempting to disqualify the No Labels entity under the reasoning that Democratic Secretary of State Adrian Fontes was in error for certifying the organization because it doesn’t meet all of the legal qualifications. The ADP claims that No Labels has not filed with the Federal Election Commission nor have they disclosed their donors, both requirements for political parties under Arizona election law.

The Arizona Democrats are particularly concerned about No Labels because a candidate under this banner could potentially draw Democratic votes away from President Biden while further attracting a large percentage of Democratic support for Independent and Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, a former Democrat, now an Independent. Arizona is again expected to deliver very close statewide election results in 2024, as its electorate has done in the last two elections.

There is a strong possibility that Sen. Sinema could run as the No Labels Senate candidate. Doing so would allow her to qualify for the ballot with far fewer petition signatures than required to secure an Independent ballot line. Under Arizona procedure, an Independent candidate would be required to submit 45,000 valid registered voter petition signatures. A new party’s candidate would see such a signature requirement drop to less than 1,300.

Asa Hutchinson: Announces Candidacy — Former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson (R), who has repeatedly come out in opposition to former President Donald Trump, announced that he will become a presidential candidate. Though Hutchinson would be considered a “Never Trumper,” his jumping into the race could well help the former president because even small numbers of votes deflect from whoever becomes Trump’s top opponent, likely Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, will allow the former to score a plurality victory.

Senate

West Virginia: New GOP Primary Poll Finds Gov. Justice with Big Lead — The National Public Affairs survey research firm released the results of their new West Virginia US Senate Republican primary poll. The study (March 14-17; 360 likely West Virginia Republican primary voters and Independents likely to vote in the Republican primary; live interview & text), unsurprisingly finds Gov. Jim Justice leading Attorney General Patrick Morrisey (R) and US Rep. Alex Mooney (R-Charles Town) with a 43-21-10 percent count. If the race were only between Gov. Justice and Rep. Mooney, the governor would hold a 55-24 percent advantage.

It is likely that Morrisey will likely opt for the open governor’s race instead of taking on Justice in another Senate primary. In 2018, Morrisey held Sen. Joe Manchin (D) to a 50-46 percent re-election victory after easily winning the Republican primary. A Senate announcement from Gov. Justice is expected soon.

House

AZ-1: Democrats Rebound with New Candidate — Late last week, 2022 congressional nominee Jevin Hodge (D), who held Arizona Rep. David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills) to a tight 50.4 – 49.6 percent victory margin, announced that he would not return for a re-match. State Rep. Amish Shah (D-) said Monday that he will run.

The newly-configured 1st District electorate is voting much more Democratic than the FiveThirtyEight R+7 rating would suggest. Though Rep. Schweikert barely won, President Joe Biden, Sen. Mark Kelly (D), and Gov. Katie Hobbs (D) all carried the 1st district in their 2020 and 2022 elections, albeit by similarly slim margins. Expect AZ-1 to be a top-tier Democratic conversion seat in the next election.

FL-11: Rep. Webster to Face Primary Challenge — Former Florida state Rep. Anthony Sabatini (R), who finished a distant second to now-Rep. Cory Mills (R-New Smyrna Beach) in the open 7th District Republican primary last year, announced that he will challenge veteran Rep. Dan Webster (R-Clermont) next year in the neighboring 11th District. Sabatini will be a long-shot contender, but he will likely be able to attract sufficient resources to become competitive.

Elections: Johnson Wins in Chicago, Democrat Wins Crucial Wisconsin Judicial Race; Trump Gets Post-Indictment Bounce; House News

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, April 5, 2023

Election Results

Cook County Commissioner Brandon Johnson (D) will succeed Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot (D).

Chicago Mayor: Johnson Wins Close Election — Former Chicago Public Schools CEO Paul Vallas was attempting to complete a worst-to-first showing from his last place finish in the 2019 Chicago mayor’s race, but fell just under three percentage points of accomplishing his goal. The winner, with 51.4 percent of the runoff vote, is Cook County Commissioner Brandon Johnson (D), who will now succeed Mayor Lori Lightfoot (D) after her defeat in the initial round of voting.

Johnson’s combined support from the Chicago Teachers Union and the black and Hispanic communities, together of which accounts for approximately 60 percent of the city’s population, led to his victory. Commissioner Johnson is himself a former teacher and union organizer.

Wisconsin Supreme Court: Democrat Wins — Milwaukee County Circuit Court Judge Janet Prostasiewicz won a rather easy 55-45 percent victory last night in what many believe was a crucial election. The victory now gives the Democrats the majority on the state Supreme Court for the first time in 15 years. Abortion, again, was a major topic in the race with Prostasiewicz positioning her opponent, former defeated Supreme Court Judge Dan Kelly, as an extremist. Kelly raised little money for the race, but had major outside support. Prostasiewicz and the Democrats had a major resource advantage, and ran the campaign as if it were closer to a partisan congressional race than a judicial battle.

It is probable that we will now see a redistricting lawsuit filed and the state’s 6R-2D map overturned. Prostasiewicz indicated during the campaign that she thought the congressional map was “unfair.”

It appears Republicans won a state Senate special election that would give them a Super Majority within the body. This would allow them to override many of Democratic Gov. Tony Evers’ potential vetoes. With 99 percent of the vote counted, Republican Dan Knodl held 50.4 percent of the vote.

President

State Polling: Trump’s Indictment Bounce — Though now under indictment, former President Donald Trump sees his polling numbers continue to improve, this time in three states. His lead over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, and others, has grown according to new surveys from Massachusetts and New Hampshire, while his deficit has closed in the Sunshine State.

Opinion Dynamics, polling for the Boston Herald newspaper (released April 3; 475 likely Massachusetts Republican primary voters) sees Trump’s Massachusetts lead expand to 45-21-9-3 percent over Gov. DeSantis, former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, and ex-Vice President Mike Pence. In a two-way test, Trump led DeSantis, 46-32 percent.

In New Hampshire, St. Anselm’s College conducted one of their regular Granite State surveys (March 28-30; 1,320 registered New Hampshire voters; live interview via cellphone). Here, Trump’s advantage is 42-29 percent, with New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu pulling 14 percent.

The Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Florida survey (March 27-30; 625 registered Florida voters with a 507 over-sample of Republican voters for the GOP primary questions; live interview) sees DeSantis, with a strong GOP approval rating of 87:7 percent favorable to unfavorable, leading former President Trump 44-39 percent before the governor’s home state electorate.

House

MI-10: New Democrat Comes Forth — Last November freshman Rep. John James (R-Farmington Hills) won a very tight 49-48 percent election victory over former judge and prosecuting attorney Carl Marlinga (D). He has now already drawn two opponents even though Marlinga is expected to return to seek a re-match.

Earlier in the week, former state representative candidate Diane Young (D) announced her congressional candidacy. Previously, attorney and 2022 congressional nominee against Rep. Lisa McClain (R-Bruce), Brian Jaye (D), declared his candidacy in the adjoining 10th CD. It is already clear that regardless of how many Democrats come forward to attempt to challenge Rep. James, the 2024 Democratic nominee will almost assuredly again be Marlinga. He will once more give Rep. James a very competitive battle in the general election.

NY-3: Rep. Santos Has Primary Challenge — It is a foregone conclusion that embattled freshman New York Rep. George Santos (R-Long Island) is the most vulnerable House member for the coming 2024 election. While two Democrats have previously announced their candidacies, the first Republican challenger stepped forward yesterday.

Afghan War veteran and former JP Morgan Vice President Kellen Curry declared himself a candidate for the Republican nomination. It is expected that we will see a crowded Republican primary form long before the June 2024 New York primary. Defeating Rep. Santos in the primary may be the only way the GOP has of potentially salvaging the seat.

The Presidential Campaign Goes On

Former President Donald Trump

By Jim Ellis — Friday, March 31, 2023

President

Donald Trump: Indictment — Yesterday’s indictment of former President Donald Trump will undoubtedly change the presidential campaign picture, but predicting any eventuality at this early juncture of the juxtaposition between the legal and political processes is difficult.

In the past few weeks, Trump has been trending upward in national Republican primary polling. Earlier in the year, survey results were flip-flopping between he and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in terms of which man was leading on ballot tests before a national Republican electorate.

As we approached yesterday’s indictment, both the horse race numbers, ostensibly between Trump and DeSantis, and even the personal favorability indexes were showing noticeable improvement in the former president’s favor.

In fact, the recent Fox News Poll posted Trump to a 30-point national Republican advantage over Gov. DeSantis (conducted by Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research for Fox News; March 24-27; 1,007 US registered voters; approximately 423 Republican primary voters; live interview: Trump 54; DeSantis 24; former VP Mike Pence 6; ex-UN Ambassador Nikki Haley 3; former Congresswoman Liz Cheney 3 percent).

It will be interesting to see just how the media coverage of the indictment, arraignment, legal arguments and eventual trial changes the political picture. There is no question that the associated events and their ultimate outcome will have at this point an undetermined major impact upon the nomination campaign’s outcome. It will doubtlessly also affect the general election contest.

What we do know is the previous early polling pattern is still present. Yesterday, a new Georgia Republican presidential primary poll was released, and we again see Gov. DeSantis performing better on a state basis than he does nationally.

Continue reading →

Christie: “Stop Trump”; The Jan. 6 Effect in OH-9; RI-1 Candidate List Grows; Chicago Runoff on Tues.

By Jim Ellis — Friday, March 31, 2023

President

Former NJ Gov. Chris Christie

Chris Christie: Unique Pitch — Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) is making appearances in New Hampshire and telling Republicans that they “need him” on the debate dais in order to “stop Trump.” It is unlikely that such a strategy will bear much political fruit, but it is certainly possible that Christie will enter the presidential race.

House

OH-9: New Candidate Emerges — Ohio US Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Toledo) is one of only five Democrats who represent seats that former President Donald Trump carried in 2020. Post-redistricting, Rep. Kaptur found herself placed in a seat that is strongly Republican, but was fortunate in drawing GOP candidate J.R. Majewski, who was part of the January 6 raid on the Capitol. She easily dispensed with her opponent, 57-43 percent, despite the district’s R+6 partisan lean.

A new contender came to the forefront yesterday, which will likely make the 2024 race much more competitive. In what is expected to be the first of several Republican candidates to announce, former Walbridge Mayor Dan Wilczynski yesterday made his declaration.

Rep. Kaptur is the Dean of House Democrats. She was first elected in 1982, thus serving her 21st two-year term.

RI-1: Candidate List Continues to Grow — Despite Rhode Island Rep. David Cicilline (D-Providence) not resigning his seat until June 1, the list of impending special election candidates continues to grow. Woonsocket Mayor Lisa Baldelli-Hunt (D) is adding her name to the list of those either announcing for the seat or considering entering the campaign. Her addition expands the candidate and potential candidate list to nine Democrats. At a D+32 rating, Rep. Cicilline’s successor will be determined in the special Democratic primary.

Baldelli-Hunt is the aunt of Rocco Baldelli, who is the manager of the Minnesota Twins Major League Baseball club. Gov. Dan McKee (D) will issue the special election calendar as soon as Rep. Cicilline officially resigns.

Cities

Chicago: Conflicting Surveys — Yesterday, we covered a poll released by Emerson College, which posted former Chicago Schools CEO Paul Vallas to a 46-41 percent lead over Cook County Commissioner Brandon Johnson. Now we see a new survey coming into the public domain that shows Johnson in better standing.

Northwestern University’s Center for Diversity and Democracy and several Black and Latino non-profit organizations contracted with the BSP survey research firm (March 15-23; 1,500 registered Chicago voters; live interview, email, and online panel) and produced data that finds the two candidates locked in a 44-44 percent dead heat.

The runoff election is Tuesday, and we are guaranteed a tight finish between the two jungle primary finishers. In the qualifying election, incumbent Lori Lightfoot (D) was defeated.

Desantis-Trump Conflicting Results; 2022 PA Candidate Won’t Run Again; Decision Time in Wisconsin, Texas

By Jim Ellis — Friday, March 17, 2023

President

Former President Donald Trump; Florida Gov. Ron Desantis (R)

National Polls: Conflicting Results — While national polls don’t mean much in terms of projecting who will win a presidential nomination because the ultimate winner is decided through accumulating delegate votes through the states, we now see a released pair of interesting Republican nomination surveys conducted during the same period.

The CNN national survey (conducted by SSRS; March 8-12; 1,040 registered US voters; live interview & online) showed that the ballot test favored Gov. Ron DeSantis, who led former President Donald Trump 39-37 percent. Former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley and ex-Vice President Mike Pence were a distant third and fourth with 7 and 6 percent, respectively.

Conversely, Quinnipiac University, in the field with their national poll (March 9-13; 677 Republican and Republican-leaning voters; live interview) projects a completely different ballot test result. The Q-Poll sees Trump holding a strong 46-32 percent lead over Gov. DeSantis, with Haley and Pence following at 5 and 3 percent, respectively.

Because the sample sizes are typically small for national polls, and therefore possess high error factors, we can expect to see continued diverse survey results as the campaign continues to take shape.

Senate

Pennsylvania: 2022 Senate Candidate Won’t Try Again — Businesswoman and political activist Kathy Barnette, who placed a credible third place with 25 percent of the vote behind both Dr. Mehmet Oz and former hedge fund CEO David McCormick in the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican US Senate primary, says she will not return to run again next year. The National Republican Senatorial Committee and the major outside GOP support organizations are attempting to recruit McCormick into next year’s challenge race against Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D).

Doug Mastriano, the ‘22 Republican gubernatorial nominee and a state senator from Chambersburg, says he is considering a comeback. Republican leaders are working to ensure a Mastriano repeat does not happen since he was defeated 56-42 percent in the general election and failed to run a competitive campaign. In any event, Sen. Casey will be favored for re-election.

Wisconsin: Businessman Considering Challenge to Sen. Baldwin — Business owner Scott Mayer (R) confirms he is considering competing for the Wisconsin US Senate nomination in a race that has not yet seen much activity. Mayer is capable of self-funding his race, though he says it’s “not something he is comfortable with.” He has been told he might have to fund as much as $20 million to run a competitive race.

At this point, no notable Republican has come forward to declare their Senate candidacy. Since Wisconsin always features close races, it is probable that this contest has the eventual potential of becoming a top-tier targeted campaign.

House

TX-34: Ex-Rep Leaning Against Re-Match — Republican Mayra Flores made national news in 2022 when she scored an upset special election win in the Texas Rio Grande Valley 34th District that is anchored in the city of Brownsville. In the regular election, however, she fell 51-43 percent to fellow Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-McAllen) who decided to run in the 34th instead of his previous 15th CD.

The principal reason for Flores losing was redistricting. The 34th went from a D+5 to a D+17 under the FiveThirtyEight data organization statistical calculation making the seat difficult for any Republican to attain.

Seeing the political reality, Flores is indicating that she is unlikely to run again in 2024. In order to make the adjacent 15th CD more winnable for a Republican, which happened with the election of Rep. Monica de la Cruz (R-McAllen) in November, the 34th became more Democratic. The redistricting map was drawn long before Flores won the special election, hence the lopsided partisan lean for a district the GOP was able to convert.