Tag Archives: California

A Trio of US House Updates:
Stefanik, Calvert, Golden

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Nov. 10, 2025

House

Political moves are now coming fast and furious. We see an increase in retirements, members announcing for different offices, and a just-beginning round of California political musical chairs, because last Tuesday voters adopted the state’s new redistricting map.

Among the moves are the recently announced political plans from a trio of US House Representatives: Ken Calvert (R-CA), Jared Golden (D-ME), and Elise Stefanik (R-NY). Today, we take a look at each situation.

Stefanik: NY-21

Rep. Elise Stefanik / Photo by Gage Skidmore, Flickr

As has been expected for some time, six-term New York Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-Schuylerville) announced on Friday that she will challenge Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) in next year’s statewide race.

The announcement comes at an interesting time, however, just three days after Republicans suffered crushing defeats in California, New Jersey, New York City, and Virginia.

Though Gov. Hochul’s job approval numbers have been up and down over the course of her serving part of resigned Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s (D) final term and being elected once in her own right, Rep. Stefanik, and any other Empire State Republican, running statewide incurs a formidable challenge even under the best of circumstances. For example, the last GOP candidate to win a major New York statewide race was former Gov. George Pataki, who was elected to a third term in 2002.

Upon his re-election, President Trump nominated Rep. Stefanik as the United States Ambassador to the United Nations, but her nomination was withdrawn because the GOP House leadership did not want to risk another seat in a special election that might have threatened the party’s small majority. At that point, it became clear that a Stefanik for Governor move would soon be forming.

Democrats likely already have their 2026 open congressional race nominee. When it appeared that Stefanik would be headed to the UN, the local county Democratic Party chairs nominated dairy farmer Blake Gendebien, who has already raised $3.7 million for a congressional race and has just over $2 million in his campaign account.

The 21st District is reliably Republican, but the GOP lost the seat prior to Stefanik’s initial victory in 2014. Therefore, we can expect a competitive open general election next year.

Calvert: CA-41

One of the hardest-hit Republicans under the new California gerrymander, which is designed to neutralize expected GOP gains in Texas, is veteran Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Corona). The new California congressional map eviscerated Rep. Calvert’s desert 41st District, which had performed as a Lean Republican seat. The new plan places different parts of the current CA-41 in other surrounding Los Angeles/Riverside/San Bernardino area CDs.

Wanting to remain in Congress, Rep. Calvert announced that he will move to new District 40, where he will likely face a fellow Republican incumbent in a paired situation. It appears that Calvert and three-term Rep. Young Kim (R-La Habra) will compete for one of only four districts that now favor Republicans.

California members continue to survey their 2026 prospects, so we can expect to see other district moves in the coming days. Further incumbent pairings could soon be announced as the Golden State political musical chairs begins in earnest.

Golden: ME-2

Last week, Maine Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) announced that he will not seek a fifth term next year. The Pine Tree State’s northern 2nd Congressional District is the most Republican seat in the country that elects a Democrat to the House, and the Congressman indicated that ending his tenure after four terms is proper since Maine’s term limit for its state legislators is four two-year terms.

Had he remained, Golden would have faced a difficult political year. His general election opponent would certainly have been former Gov. Paul LePage (R) in a district that LePage carried all three times he ran statewide. Therefore, a Golden-LePage race would have been rated a toss-up.

Before getting to the general election, Golden was staring at a Democratic primary challenge from the ideological left in the person of State Auditor and ex-Secretary of State Matt Dunlap.

Because Maine elects its statewide constitutional officers through the state legislature and not the voters, Dunlap does not have the electoral experience that he would have in commensurate positions from most other states. Still, he would have been a formidable Democratic opponent to Rep. Golden and is now likely to be considered the front runner for the party nomination.

Speculation at the beginning of the year pegged Golden as a possible gubernatorial candidate, and while he would have been credible in the general election, his primary prospects would have been rated as difficult. Golden would have been a centrist campaigning before a very liberal primary vote base. Some speculation also suggested that he might challenge Sen. Susan Collins (R), but as a former staffer to the five-term incumbent, such an option was never seriously pursued.

Open Seats

With a spate of political announcements last week, including former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi retiring, we now see 38 open US House seats in addition to the special elections being conducted in Tennessee and Texas.

Of the 38, a total of 22 are Republican-held, 13 Democratic, with three new seats being created through the Texas redistricting project. Most of the 2026 races, however, will not feature competitive open general election campaigns, but all will host hot primaries. Of the 38 current open seats, it is reasonable to expect only nine competitive general election contests. The other 29 will safely or likely remain with the incumbent party.

Rep. Nancy Pelosi to Retire

Nancy Pelosi announced yesterday that she will not seek re-election to Congress. Watch the video on X here: Nancy Pelosi announces retirement. (Or click on the image above to see the video posted to her X account. Her announcement comes at 4:45 in the video.)

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Nov. 7, 2025

House

Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s announcement yesterday morning that she will retire when the current Congress ends has taken center stage, politically.

Nancy Pelosi was first elected to Congress back in 1987 when she won a special election to replace the late Rep. Sala Burton (D-San Francisco). Burton ran for and was elected to the seat in 1983 when her husband, then-Rep. Phil Burton (D) suddenly passed away.

Before coming to Congress, Pelosi had been the California Democratic Party chair. She grew up, however, in Baltimore, where her father, Thomas D’Alesandro, was the city’s Mayor. Therefore, her introduction to elective politics came at a young age.

At the end of next year, Rep. Pelosi will have served 39 years in the House, and eight of those as Speaker. She became the first, and only, woman to hold that post when the Democrats regained the House majority in 2007 after a 12-year hiatus from power.

Rep. Pelosi would then take a step back to Minority Leader in 2011 when Democrats lost control of the House. She returned to the body’s top post in 2019 and held the Speakership until the Democrats again lost the majority in 2023. At that point, she retired from the House leadership but remained as a regular member.

This year, Rep. Pelosi’s political outlook back home became more challenging. While she’s had opponents in every election none had been substantial, meaning she was able to record landslide wins every two years.

When Sakat Chakrabarti, who quarterbacked Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s (D-NY) upset win in 2018, announced his intention to challenge the former Speaker in the 2026 Democratic primary most believed he was not a substantial threat to defeat Pelosi. His personal wealth and track record with AOC’s upset campaign, however, gave him a modicum of credibility that no other Pelosi opponent had commanded.

The political situation became even more intriguing last month when three-term state Sen. Scott Weiner (D-San Francisco) announced that he would also enter the race, presumably to challenge Pelosi. The move was a surprise since it was assumed that Sen. Weiner, who represents even more of San Francisco than does Pelosi because California state Senate seats are bigger than congressional districts, would wait until she retired to run for Congress.

Some believed the Weiner move was a ploy to encourage the Congresswoman to retire. Most believed he would have backed off of the challenge should she have decided to run again. Had Weiner moved forward, and with Chakrabarti also in the race with the goal of building himself a local political base, the campaign would have become significant.

A race against this pair, even though her chances of achieving victory were high, promised to be a difficult political run that would have taken a toll.

Because there is little disagreement regarding the issues among Pelosi and her two opponents, much of the campaign would have concentrated on her age (86 at the time of the next election), and that San Francisco needed a new Representative who could build seniority for the long term.

Whether he was forcing the retirement issue or would have truly challenged her, the end result spun in Sen. Weiner’s favor, and he is now the heir apparent for the seat.

All things considered, the time appeared right for Pelosi to exit the political stage and begin her retirement after a very long career in the public eye.

With Rep. Pelosi leaving the 11th District, it means that there will be 38 open US House seats for the 2026 election to date, after the two special elections in Tennessee and Texas are filled. Like almost all other opens from both parties, CA-11, which changes little under the new California map, will be another safe seat for the incumbent party.

Considering that California employs the jungle primary system where the top two finishers advance to the general election irrespective of political party or percentage attained, we could easily see two Democrats advancing from the state’s June 2nd open primary.

The Pelosi Challenge Deepens

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Oct. 23, 2025

House

California state Sen. Scott Weiner

Early this year, former Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez campaign manager Saikat Chakrabarti announced that he would challenge 20-term California Representative and former US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-San Francisco) in the state’s 2026 jungle primary. A new development makes this challenger race more interesting.

Aside from Chakrabarti, who is independently wealthy and loaned his campaign $755,000, a new challenger is coming forward. Three-term state Sen. Scott Weiner (D-San Francisco) is now saying that he too will join the race to unseat Pelosi, who can be described as a national Democratic political icon.

Weiner, who was elected to the San Francisco City and County consolidated Board of Supervisors in 2010, ran for and was elected to the state Senate in 2016. Under California election law, state legislators may serve six two-year terms in the state Assembly, or three four-year terms in the state Senate. Should one run for the Assembly and then move to the Senate, the time of service carries over from one house to the other.

While Sen. Weiner can remain in his present position through 2028, he no longer is eligible to seek re-election; therefore, his political situation instills greater impetus to become a congressional candidate.

It has long been surmised that Sen. Weiner would run for Congress as soon as Pelosi retired. Their constituencies almost perfectly overlap, though California state Senate seats are approximately 30 percent larger than US House districts. Many expected the Congresswoman to retire from politics after she left the Speakership, but she has twice been re-elected to the House since publicly deciding to leave her leadership position.

The 2026 11th District congressional race now becomes intriguing. The California jungle primary law requires two individuals to move into the general election regardless of political party affiliation or vote percentage attained. With an overwhelmingly large Democratic CD-11 constituency (a percentage beakdown of 63.5D – 7.5R) it is quite possible for two Democrats to advance into the general election.

Because her political longevity is fundamentally based upon maintaining a strong base at home, Pelosi would assuredly clinch one of the general election slots. With his own strong vote history, one would surmise that Sen. Weiner would be the betting favorite to clinch the second slot. Should such occur, we would see Pelosi facing a competitive opponent for virtually all of calendar year 2026.

Regardless of who eventually runs, Rep. Pelosi must be considered the favorite for re-election even against strong opponents. As we know, she has dominated San Francisco politics for four decades, and rarely has even drawn a credible opponent.

This being the case, why would Sen. Weiner want to enter a race that he would lose especially with so few policy differences existing between he and the former House Speaker? Positioning may be the answer.

Because Sen. Weiner has a four-year term, he can run for Congress in 2026 and not risk his state Senate seat. Secondly, taking advantage of Chakrabarti already spending money against Pelosi, a Weiner entrance may encourage the Congresswoman to retire in order to avoid a competitive campaign at her advanced age. If so, Sen. Weiner becomes the candidate to beat in an open seat situation.

Third, should the former Speaker remain in the race and Weiner loses, he is virtually guaranteed to fare better than any other person to have ever challenged her. Thus, he would be well positioned as the heir apparent when she eventually retires, which could be as soon as the 2028 election assuming she runs again next year.

Fourth, Weiner can begin to prepare a congressional campaign now but then decide to run only if Pelosi does not. In California, if an incumbent does not officially file for re-election, the candidate filing period is extended for five additional business days. Therefore, Weiner would have an opportunity to file even if the Congresswoman decides to retire right before the candidate filing period expires.

While a Weiner congressional candidacy would make interesting political news copy, he is likely merely testing the waters for a future run. There is a good chance the final decision as to whether he runs would occur at the candidate filing deadline.

In 2026, California candidates must fulfill filing requirements by March 6 for the June 2 jungle primary, or March 13 should the incumbent not seek re-election.

A Serious Pelosi Challenge?

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Oct. 1, 2025

House

Saikat Chakrabarti

Saikat Chakrabarti, a Democratic challenger to Speaker Emeritus Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), released an internal poll that he says positions him to end her congressional career. Pelosi, who was elected to the House in 1987 after being the California Democratic Party chair, began her tenure after winning a special election victory in ’87 that would eventually lead to eight years directing the US House.

Chakrabarti quarterbacked Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s shocking upset 2018 Democratic primary victory over veteran New York Rep. Joe Crowley and now believes he can engineer a similar result for himself against a Democratic Party icon.

A Chakrabarti campaign poll from Beacon Research (Sept. 12-20; 600 likely California June jungle primary voters; text and live interview) finds Rep. Pelosi leading Chakrabarti 47-34 percent. After the respondents are read push questions featuring the 85-year-old incumbent’s age and whether or not a new generation of Democratic leadership should come to power, the ballot test then flips to 44-36 percent in Chakrabarti’s favor.

Though the poll could arguably be within the realm of accuracy at this early date, the results should not be taken particularly seriously. Most importantly, we are not looking at a Democratic primary battle on June 2. Instead, California uses the top-two jungle primary system that places all candidates on the same ballot irrespective of political party affiliation. The top two finishers in what is ostensibly a qualifying election then advance into the general election regardless of the percentages attained on the initial vote.

Thus, to think Rep. Pelosi would not advance into the general election under this system is absurd considering her consecutive 20 congressional election win streak from her San Francisco-anchored CD.

The general election will yield an entirely different campaign because the turnout will be much larger in the November election, which benefits the former Speaker. Thus, it will not be enough for Chakrabarti to outpace Pelosi in the lower turnout June election because both contenders would advance into the general no matter what their attained percentages.

It is already becoming clear, however, that we will see a number of intra-party challenges to aging Democratic incumbents around the country from younger candidates. Several, such as Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH; 78 years old), and Reps. Danny Davis (D-IL; 84), and Jan Schakowsky (D-IL; 81), have already announced their retirements in the face of potential challengers who said they would use the “new generation of leadership” theme.

Others looking at serious challenges and facing the same theme are Reps. John Larson (D-CT; 77) and David Scott (D-GA; 80). Other Democratic members who are 75 years old or older and are seeking re-election may have nomination challengers, but the opposition at this point does not look particularly strong. This list includes two past leadership members, Reps. Steny Hoyer, (D-MD; 86) and Jim Clyburn, (D-SC; 85), along with Reps. Maxine Waters (D-CA; 87) and Frederica Wilson (D-FL; 82).

While Rep. Pelosi has filed a 2026 campaign committee with the Federal Election Commission, she has yet to formally announce her re-election candidacy. It is presumed, however, that she will seek a 21st term.

The California Congresswoman’s 11th District, fully contained on the San Francisco peninsula, is one of the most Democratic seats in the country. According to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, the CA-11 partisan lean is 86.6D – 11.6R. In California, only two districts are more Democratic, and only by a point or two. The pair are the Oakland seat of freshman Rep. Lateefah Simon (D) along with two-term Rep. Sydney Kamlager-Dove’s (D) Los Angeles domain.

Should voters approve the proposed California redistricting map in the Nov. 4 special election, the three strongest Democratic districts will remain virtually intact. This means that Pelosi’s general election opponent will almost assuredly be a Democrat, and very likely Chakrabarti.

Assuming the former Speaker runs for re-election, the chances of Chakrabarti or any other Democrat dethroning her are minimal at best. Therefore, though an early poll such as his Beacon Research study may suggest a modicum of weakness for the long-time House member, the final vote will again return her for yet another term.

AZ-7 Special Today;
California Shock Poll

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Sept. 23, 2025

AZ-7

Former Pima County Supervisor Adelita Grijalva after her win in the July 15 special Democratic primary. / Photo by Kelly Presnell

Voters in the Tucson, Arizona area today go to the polls to elect a replacement for the late Rep. Raul Grijalva (D) who passed away in March.

This vote is basically pro forma, as the determinative election was held in the July 15 Democratic primary. The late Congressman’s daughter, Adelita Grijalva, who had to resign her seat on the Pima County Board of Supervisors to run for Congress, easily won the party nomination.

Ms. Grijalva’s primary conquest virtually guarantees her a win tonight in a seat that carries a partisan lean of 65.5D – 32.3R (Dave’s Redistricting App calculations). She will defeat 2024 Republican congressional nominee Daniel Butierez and exceed the 60 percent vote threshold. The Green Party and No Labels Party also qualified nominees, but they will factor little in the final outcome.

The Grijalva victory will bring the US House partisan division total to 219R – 214D. The next special vote will come in Tennessee on Oct. 7. There, both parties will hold contested primaries as the first step to replacing resigned Rep. Mark Green (R). The Tennessee special general election is scheduled for Dec. 2.

The final vacant seat, Texas’ 18th District anchored in Houston, will hold its jungle special election on Nov. 4. Should no one reach majority support, Gov. Greg Abbott will then schedule a runoff election for the top two finishers.

California

In a report last month, Sen. Alex Padilla (D-CA) was quoted as saying he is considering entering the open California Governor’s race but will make a decision after the special redistricting election to be held Nov. 4.

It appeared that Sen. Padilla, as a sitting statewide incumbent, would soar to the top of early gubernatorial polls that have never projected any candidate even reaching 20 percent support from what promises to be a crowded final field. The first poll that included Sen. Padilla on the contenders’ list produced a surprising result, however.

The latest California Emerson College Poll (Sept. 15-16; 1,000 registered California voters; multiple sampling techniques) testing the Governor’s race and the redistricting ballot referendum was released over the weekend.

The ballot test again finds former Rep. Katie Porter leading the jungle primary field but with only 16 percent preference. Following are two Republicans totaling 18 percent of the jungle primary vote — former Fox News host Steve Hilton (10 percent) and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Biano (8 percent). Sen. Padilla is next, posting only 7 percent support, which is a surprisingly low number for a sitting US Senator in such a crowded field. Following him, at 3 percent support, is former US Health and Human Services Secretary, ex-California Attorney General, and 12-term Golden State Congressman, Xavier Becerra (D).

Data such as this may prompt Sen. Padilla to have second thoughts about running for Governor. Though he could still certainly mount a winning campaign, his residual political strength is likely less than he initially calculated.

The Emerson poll also tested the special election to pass a redistricting ballot proposition that would bypass the California Citizens Redistricting Commission map and substitute a gerrymandered plan. The new map would ostensibly relegate Republicans to just four of 52 seats in “retaliation,” according to Gov. Gavin Newsom (D), to the Texas redistricting plan.

The ballot initiative polled at 51 percent favoring and 34 percent opposing. While the “Yes” vote is well ahead in this early survey, California analysts point out that the “No” position on almost every ballot initiative gains in polling support as the election draws near. Therefore, reaching only 51 percent in the initial test suggests that the margin for error is slim, and securing passage is not a foregone conclusion.

Expect the Golden State Governor’s race, Sen. Padilla’s ultimate decision about running, and the redistricting referendum to draw much more national attention as we move toward the Nov. 4 special election and the California candidate filing deadline slated for March 6, 2026.

Senate Turnover

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Sept. 22, 2025

Senate

Without any incumbent losing in the 2026 election, it is possible we will see as many as a dozen new Senators come to Washington when the 120th Congress convenes. Obviously, the number will grow even higher should any incumbent fall to a challenger, and further retirements as state candidate filing deadlines begin to approach are of course possible.

At this point, eight Senators have announced they will not seek re-election, but the cycle’s wild card is potentially seeing five Senators running for Governor in their respective states. This unusually high number includes four Senators who are not in-cycle, meaning they would not have to risk their current position to enter the state race.

Currently, Sens. Tommy Tuberville (R-AL), Michael Bennet (D-CO), and Marsha Blackburn (R-TN) are announced gubernatorial candidates. Two more, Sens. Alex Padilla (D-CA) and Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), have made public statements admitting they are considering entering open Governor’s races in their states. From this entire group, only Sen. Tuberville is eschewing re-election to run for Governor.

Sen. Padilla said he will wait to determine if he will launch a gubernatorial bid until the special redistricting vote scheduled for Nov. 4. Just this week, Sen. Murkowski again said she “isn’t ruling out” running for Governor of Alaska and made the point of having the “luxury” of waiting until deeper in the election cycle to make a final decision.

All of the Senators running or potentially running for Governor have or would have a strong chance of winning. This means that all but one would have the opportunity of appointing their own successor to the Senate upon election. Already speculation is running high in places like Colorado and Tennessee as to who will be the chosen replacement. Alabama voters will choose their next Senator in the 2026 regular election.

Of the 35 Senate races in the ’26 election cycle, including the two special elections in Florida and Ohio, Republicans must defend 22 of the in-cycle seats as compared to just 13 for the Democrats. Today, it appears that only three are in the toss-up category, Georgia, Michigan, and North Carolina, with the remaining 32 being safe for the incumbent party or at least leaning in its direction.

A Georgia poll released just this week (Quantus Insights; Sept. 9-12; 624 likely Georgia general election voters; online and text) projects Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) and Rep. Mike Collins (R-Jackson) locked in a 38-38 percent tie.

In the open Michigan race, Republican Mike Rogers, who lost the 2024 Senate contest by just 19,006 votes (three-tenths of a percentage point), has an unencumbered path to the Republican nomination, while the Democrats are embroiled in a three-way primary battle that won’t be decided until Aug. 4.

Recent North Carolina polling data (Change Research; Sept. 2-8; 855 likely North Carolina voters; online) finds former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) leading ex-Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley 48-41 percent in a race to replace retiring Sen. Thom Tillis (R) that is expected to be close through the entire campaign.

In the races involving Senators running for Governor, Sen. Tuberville to date faces no major Alabama Republican primary opposition in his open race. Incumbent Gov. Kay Ivey (R) is ineligible to seek a third term. A Democratic nominee will have a difficult time overcoming Sen. Tuberville in the general election. The party hopes to recruit former Sen. Doug Jones into the race, but he lost to Tuberville 60-40 percent in the 2020 Senate campaign. Therefore, Sen. Tuberville appears as a lock to win the Governorship next year.

Colorado Sen. Bennet would have little trouble in his state’s open Governor’s election as incumbent Jared Polis (D) is also term-limited in 2026. In the Democratic primary, Attorney General Phil Weiser remains in the race, and he is Sen. Bennet’s strongest potential opponent. The only published poll of this campaign came from the Global Strategy Group in June (June 9-11; 600 likely Colorado Democratic primary voters; live interview) and posted Sen. Bennet to a strong 53-22 percent advantage over Weiser.

Tennessee Sen. Blackburn faces GOP primary opposition in the person of Rep. John Rose (R-Cookeville). The latest poll comes from Quantus Insights (Aug. 5-7; 600 registered Tennessee voters; online & text) and posts Sen. Blackburn to a large 35-6 percent lead for the party nomination.

California Sen. Padilla would be a very formidable candidate, and likely the favorite, in the open Governor’s race to replace incumbent Gavin Newsom (D). A large jungle primary field awaits with no candidate so far even reaching 20 percent in any poll. The ostensible leader by a small percentage is former Rep. Katie Porter (D), but a Padilla entry would almost certainly allow him to advance into the general election. There, he would be a big favorite even in a two-way Democratic November campaign.

Sen. Murkowski, on the other hand, should she run for Governor, could face major general election opposition. Waiting in the wings is Democratic former at-large Rep. Mary Peltola. Even though she lost a close 2024 general election, Peltola remains a popular figure and would clearly be the Democrats’ best option to convert the Governor’s position away from the Republicans. As in other discussed situations, incumbent Mike Dunleavy (R) is ineligible to seek re-election.

The addition of multiple Senators running as candidates for Governor across the nation changes the 2026 Senate election cycle. Therefore, it is probable we will see several more freshman Senators in 2027 than the regular election will produce.

California Redistricting:
The Five Targeted Seats

The proposed congressional map by California Democrats, (left) and the current map (right). Click on map to see larger image. Graphic: Dave’s Redistricting App / Joshua Metcalf)

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Aug. 19, 2025

Redistricting

The California proposed retribution redistricting map that key staff members at the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) drew is now public, and the process to adopt such a plan is beginning this week.

In order for the California Governor and legislators to replace their current congressional map before the 2030 census is completed, the leadership must find a way to usurp the California Citizens Redistricting Commission that the voters instituted through a 2010 ballot measure. The only way to cancel the Commission map, Gov. Gavin Newsom and the majority Democrats believe, is to have another vote of the people to directly adopt a specific new map.

While the Newsom et al interpretation will likely be subject to a lawsuit with the objective of halting the process, the legislature this week will vote on a measure to place a new congressional map on a special election ballot this November. To approve a ballot referendum, each legislative chamber must do so with a two-thirds super majority. Considering the Democrats hold well over two-thirds of the seats in both the state Assembly and state Senate, placing the referendum on the ballot will likely be achieved.

Whether a majority of special election voters will adopt the map is open to question. For years, voters have listened to arguments about enacting “fair” district maps. In fact, this argument was the crux of the 2010 initiative campaign to create the citizens’ commission and 61.3 percent of the voters did so. Yet, in this special election, the message coming from Democratic leaders will now be to ‘vote yes for gerrymandering.’

Therefore, getting a majority vote on such a measure may be a more difficult political task than Gov. Newsom and his cohorts currently believe.

Thanks to the statisticians at The Down Ballot political blog, we see the data behind the proposed district configurations. The very rapidly completed calculations tell us how the 2024 and 2020 presidential elections unfolded in every new district. The statisticians also calculated how much of each current district is included in a new 2026 district.

To put the new map in context, we must remember that the current delegation is comprised of 43 Democrats and just nine Republicans. The new map is projected to possibly take the Republicans down to as few as four seats.

As we know, the DCCC California map is drawn as a retaliatory move against the new Texas redistricting plan that could be adopted this week. Projections suggest that the new map could yield as many as five additional GOP seats.

It remains an important point to underscore that Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) added redistricting issue to his special session in response to a US Justice Department directive to redraw the map. The DOJ cited a recent en banc US 5th Circuit Court of Appeals minority districts ruling that now cause some of the state’s congressional districts to become illegal.

The California Republican US House members facing the most difficult re-election situations, should the proposed map become law, are Reps. Doug LaMalfa (R-Oroville; District 1), Kevin Kiley (R-Rocklin/Sacramento; District 3), and Ken Calvert (R-Corona; District 41).

Another GOP member, Rep. Darrell Issa (R-San Diego; District 48), would find himself in a much more competitive re-election campaign, while Rep. David Valadao (R-Hanford; District 22), would see his already Democratic-leaning seat further help a Democratic candidate. President Trump, however, still carried the new District 22.

Rep. LaMalfa’s new 1st District, according to The Down Ballot statisticians, would contain just 43.8 percent of his current constituency and transform from a 61 percent Trump district to a 54 percent Kamala Harris CD.

Rep. Kiley would retain 46.8 percent of his current 3rd CD, and sees the presidential index move from 50 percent Trump to 55 percent Harris. Based upon his residence, he would technically be paired with Rep. Ami Bera (D-Sacramento; District 6), but he would likely seek re-election in CA-3.

Rep. Calvert would find himself in the worst position of all the Republicans. A total of 50.5 percent of his current 41st District constituency would be placed in new District 38, which is 56 percent Harris and could mean a pairing with Rep. Linda Sanchez (D-Whittier; District 38), though it is likely she would run in new District 41. Most of Rep. Sanchez’s constituents are in either District 38 or District 31 that fellow Democrat Gil Cisneros (D-Covina) holds, but District 41 could be open, carries a Kamala Harris percentage of 57, and runs adjacent to her current district.

Rep. Young Kim (R-La Habra) would find most of her constituency in new District 41, but a third of her voters are in new District 40, which is a 56 percent Trump seat and does not have an incumbent. We could see Kim and Calvert both running for this seat.

The Issa 48th CD would keep only 32.3 percent of its current population base, while the presidential index moves from 56 percent Trump to 52 percent Harris.

Finally for the Republicans, the Valadao 22nd District keeps 84.3 percent of its current constituency and moves from 52 percent Trump to 50 percent Trump. Therefore, the region is not as partisan as some other district iterations that Congressman Valadao has previously faced.

The other Democrats most affected would be Reps. Robert Garcia (D-Long Beach; District 42) who would retain only 35.2 percent of his constituency base; Dave Min (D-Irvine; District 47) would lose a majority of his current seat (52.7 percent), but his new territory is much more Democratic; while Scott Peters (D-San Diego; District 50) would keep only 43.5 percent of his current constituency.

While these Democratic members would be in strong shape against a Republican, a series of strong Democratic candidates could pose individual threats to each.