By Jim Ellis
Sen. Mark Kelly (D) won the special election in November to fill the balance of the late Sen. John McCain’s (R) final term in office. He again comes before the voters in this election cycle to stand for a full six-year term.
OHPI surveyed the sampling universe of 935 Arizona registered voters as part of an online opt-in panel during the May 3-5 period. The sample was weighted to properly reflect the partisan division within the state along with gender, age, education, region, and ethnicity segmentation.
The questionnaire first tested the job approval ratings of Arizona’s two Democratic senators, Kelly, and Kyrsten Sinema. Then, seven potential prominent Republicans were individually paired with Sen. Kelly to test his strength against each, one of whom is likely to be his 2022 general election opponent.
Regarding the approval ratings, Sen. Sinema scored a 44:36 percent positive to negative ratio with 10 percent landing in the very favorable category and 15 percent in the very unfavorable classification. Sen. Kelly posted a similar, but slightly worse, 45:38 percent ratio. Like Sen. Sinema, more respondents rated him very unfavorable (23 percent) than very favorable (18 percent). The upside-down extreme ratio suggests an underlying weakness since the very unfavorable outweighs the very favorable for both individuals.
Here’s how potential opponents matched up against Sen. Kelly:
| CANDIDATE | PERCENT |
|---|---|
| Sen. Mark Kelly (D) | 45% |
| Kimberly Yee (R) | 35% |
| CANDIDATE | PERCENT |
|---|---|
| Sen. Mark Kelly (D) | 43% |
| Jack McCain (R) | 29% |
| CANDIDATE | PERCENT |
|---|---|
| Sen. Mark Kelly (D) | 46% |
| Karl Lake (R) | 35% |
| CANDIDATE | PERCENT |
|---|---|
| Sen. Mark Kelly (D) | 47% |
| Kelli Ward (R) | 36% |
| CANDIDATE | PERCENT |
|---|---|
| Sen. Mark Kelly (D) | 47% |
| Andy Biggs (R) | 36% |
| CANDIDATE | PERCENT |
|---|---|
| Sen. Mark Kelly (D) | 44% |
| Michael McGuire (R) | 35% |
| CANDIDATE | PERCENT |
|---|---|
| Sen. Mark Kelly (D) | 46% |
| Mark Brnovich (R) | 36% |
Yee is Arizona’s state treasurer. McCain is the son of the late Sen. McCain. Karl Lake is a former news anchor for one of the major network Phoenix television stations. Ward is the Arizona Republican Party chair who has previously served in the state legislature and run for the US Senate. Andy Biggs is the US congressman from the Maricopa County-anchored 5th District. Michael McGuire is a retired major general who headed the Arizona National Guard. Brnovich is the state’s attorney general.
