Tag Archives: Arkansas

A Quick Update on Key Senate Races

Here’s a look at the latest from the final drive for the Senate in key states:

Kentucky


Kentuckians for Strong Leadership: “Look”

Survey USA released a new poll (Oct. 15-19; 655 likely Kentucky voters) again showing a virtual dead heat between Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) and Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes (D). This data finds the senator only holding a one-point lead, 44-43 percent, as the campaign again tightens. Also, the in-state Super PAC supporting McConnell, Kentuckians for Strong Leadership, released a new attack ad, calling her “Obama’s Senator” (above).
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Upsets in the Making

Recent new polls have revealed lesser known US House challengers positioning themselves to either defeat an incumbent or win the other party’s open seat. We take a look at several:

AR-2

The Little Rock-anchored 2nd District in Arkansas has belonged to the Republicans for the last four years in the person of Rep. Tim Griffin, but having a GOP representative here is not the historical norm. With the congressman deciding to stay closer to home and running for lieutenant governor instead of re-election to the House, AR-2 is again open.

Before Griffin came into office, one must turn the clock back to the mid-1970s to see a Republican representing this seat. Rep. Ed Bethune (R) served three terms prior to retiring, but you have traverse history 104 years before to find another elected Republican from this district (Rep. Tommy Robinson did serve one of his three terms as a Republican directly succeeding Bethune, but only after switching from the Democratic Party).

Under this backdrop, Republican banker French Hill attempts to hold the seat for his party, but a new survey from the non-partisan, and highly accurate, Hendrix College – Talk Business & Politics (Oct. 15-16; 605 likely AR-2 voters) finds him Continue reading >

Key Senate Battleground States Polling Reviews Show GOP Trend

The best understanding of a political campaign’s status involves analyzing polling trends, rather than individual polls that simply capture the a snapshot of a particular point in time.

Using such a model, we take a look at the key races to determine what the long-term trends may be telling us about the final outcome. According to these trends, even with losses in Kansas and North Carolina, Republicans would likely capture the Senate majority, gaining a net of seven seats, reaching 52 members.

Alaska
Number of polls since Sept. 14: 7
Number of pollsters: 7
Number showing Dan Sullivan (R) leading Sen. Mark Begich (D): 7
Average Sullivan lead: 4.8%

Arkansas
Number of polls since Sept. 14: 7
Number of pollsters: 7
Number showing Tom Cotton (R) leading Sen. Mark Pryor (D): 4
Number showing Sen. Mark Pryor (D) leading Tom Cotton (R): 3
Average Cotton lead: 5.8%
Average Pryor lead: 2.7%

Colorado
Number of polls since Sept. 14: 8
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Fox Poll Blitz: Alaska, Ark., Colo., Kan. & Ky.

Fox News, which contracts with both a Democratic and Republican pollster to provide joint data relating to key political races, released a series of surveys yesterday, each providing good news for Republicans. The results may skew slightly Republican because in certain instances they exceed other similarly published survey suggests.

The two firms, neither particularly well known nor quoted in national polling circles, are Anderson Robbins Research (D) and the Shaw Polling Company (R). The two combined to produce polls in five different states during the Oct. 4-7 period. In each place, the sampling universe numbered somewhere between 702 and 739 likely voters. In all but Kentucky, both the Senate and governors’ races were tested. Blue Grass State voters won’t choose a new governor until next year. As identified in the headline, the other four polled states were Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado and Kansas.

Alaska

Here, the Fox poll gave former Attorney General Dan Sullivan (R) a 44-40 percent lead over Sen. Mark Begich (D), which could well be accurate. Sullivan and Begich have Continue reading >

Senate: The Latest Trends for Majority Control

    Close Senate Races Leaning D:

  • Colorado
  • Michigan
  • New Hampshire
  • North Carolina
    Close Senate Races Leaning R:

  • Alaska
  • Arkansas
  • Georgia
  • Kentucky
    Close Senate Races Leaning I:

  • Kansas
    Flat Tie:

  • Iowa
    Headed to Post-Election Run-off (Dec. 6):

  • Louisiana
    Today’s Count:

  • D: 46
  • Independent/D: 3 (Kansas, Maine, Vermont)
  • Total D/I: 49
  • Total R: 49
  • Undecided: 2 (Iowa; Louisiana)

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