Lara Trump Resigns; Cory Gardner to Chair Senate Leadership Fund; GOP May Have Credible 2026 Candidate in Massachusetts; Oklahoma Rep. Hern Decides Against Gubernatorial Bid

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Dec. 11, 2024

Senate

Now former Republican National Committee Co-Chair Lara Trump / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Florida: Lara Trump Resigns RNC Position — Republican National Committee Co-Chair Lara Trump, daughter-in-law to President-Elect Donald Trump, has resigned her party leadership position after serving through the 2024 election. Rumors abound that Ms. Trump is a Senate appointment prospect from Florida once Sen. Marco Rubio (R), the Secretary of State-designate, is confirmed to his new position. Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) will then choose a replacement for Rubio.

Ms. Trump indicates she would be interested in serving, and her RNC move suggests preparation for such an appointment. The person appointed to represent Florida in the Senate will have to run to serve the balance of the term in 2026, and again in 2028 for a full six-year term. Therefore, the appointee will need to be in major fundraising mode for a four-year period considering that two expensive statewide elections will have to be conducted. Certainly, Ms. Trump has demonstrated such fundraising ability.

Senate Leadership Fund: Ex-Senator to Chair — Former Sen. Cory Gardner (R), who may be the last Republican Senator to serve from Colorado for a very long time as the state continues to move toward the political left, has agreed to chair the Board of Directors of the Senate Leadership Fund. This group, founded by supporters of Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) to provide a political foundation his long tenure as Republican Leader, raised more than $292 million for the 2024 election cycle and is the top outside support organization for GOP Senate candidates.

House

MA-4: Republicans May Have a 2026 Candidate — For the first time in literally 100 years, the Fall River, Mass. electorate voted Republican for President in the 2024 election. This, plus former Fall River Mayor Will Flanagan now switching his party affiliation from Democrat to Republican suggests that the former local official may be preparing a bid to challenge Rep. Jake Auchincloss (D-Newton), who was just re-elected to a third term. In 2024, Auchincloss was unopposed in the general election.

Despite the city of Fall River voting Republican in the just completed election, the 4th District is a long way from making such a conversion. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as D+28, while The Down Ballot political blog statisticians rank MA-4 as the 95th safest seat in the House Democratic Conference. If the local Republicans convince Flanagan to run, they will have a credible candidate for the first time in many elections, but he would still be considered a major long shot to defeat Rep. Auchincloss from a position on the GOP ballot line.

Governor

Oklahoma: Rep. Hern Decides Against A Gubernatorial Bid — It appeared a near certainty that Rep. Kevin Hern (R-Tulsa), who was just re-elected to a fourth term in the House in November, would soon announce a bid for the impending open Governor’s race in two years. However, citing the small Republican House majority and the major agenda items the party wants to enact, Hern released a statement saying he would forego a statewide run in order to concentrate on his congressional duties.

During the leadership elections, Hern was elected as the Republican Policy Chair, so his increased Conference responsibilities also likely weighed in his decision to remain in the House.

Gov. Kevin Stitt (R) is ineligible to seek a third term. Those viewed as potential Republican candidates include Lt. Gov. Matt Pinnell, Attorney General Gentner Drummond, state School Superintendent Ryan Walters, and state House Speaker Charles McCall (R-Atoka).

The Ohio Senate Appointment

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Dec. 10, 2024

Senate

Vice President-Elect and current Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance.

Soon after the Trump-Vance ticket won the November presidential election, the Senate appointment discussion to replace Ohio senator and Vice President-Elect J.D. Vance began.

The appointment conversation originally centered around the two individuals who were viewed as the leading candidates to assume the Senate seat — Lt. Gov. Jon Husted and Attorney General David Yost.

Both men were gearing up for a gubernatorial run to replace incumbent Gov. Mike DeWine (R) who is ineligible to run for a third term. Therefore, it appeared that the governor appointing one to the Senate would avoid a bruising 2026 Republican gubernatorial primary and give the GOP a strong interim senator well positioned to hold the seat in succeeding elections. Such an easy solution, however, is no longer probable.

Both Husted and Yost have said they do not want the Senate appointment, and each is continuing to campaign for governor.

Now, the situation becomes even more complicated. Late last week, Secretary of State Frank LaRose, who entered the 2024 Republican Senate primary but fared poorly after leading in early polls, says he, too, is considering entering the governor’s race. LaRose has a base within the most conservative flank of the Ohio Republican Party, so he could be a factor in a crowded multi-candidate gubernatorial primary.

State Treasurer Robert Sprague and State Auditor Keith Faber are two more Republican statewide officials whose names have been mentioned in reference to the governor’s race. Others include Rep. Warren Davidson (R-Troy) and former congressman and statewide candidate Jim Renacci. It is unclear if Gov. DeWine is considering any of these latter individuals as possible Senate appointees.

Though the Senate appointment would be a gift to whoever becomes the interim incumbent, it is not without strings attached. While the individual would be guaranteed two years in the Senate, he or she would have to run to serve the balance of the term in 2026, and again in 2028 assuming the senator would want to run for the full six-year term. This means despite being handed the Senate seat, the individual would be forced into full campaign and fundraising mode for four years.

In the governor’s race, the eventual Republican nominee, after winning what promises to be a difficult primary, would not have a free ride in the general election. Democrats have formidable potential candidates and will certainly make a major run in the 2026 general election campaign.

Potential Democratic gubernatorial candidates included defeated Sen. Sherrod Brown who, in losing to Republican Bernie Moreno, raised more than $103 million for his re-election bid, the second highest of all US Senate candidates.

Other Democrats said to be considering the governor’s race include former congressman and 2022 Senate candidate Tim Ryan, State Supreme Court Justice and ex-Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, and mayors Aftab Pureval (D-Cincinnati), Andy Ginther (D-Columbus), and Justin Bibb (D-Cleveland).

Sen. Vance has not yet indicated when he plans to resign, but obviously he must do so before he takes the oath of office as vice president. Therefore, the Senate appointment drama will likely continue well into next month and likely very close to the presidential inauguration, which is scheduled for Jan. 20.

Expect Gov. DeWine to quickly announce his choice soon after Sen. Vance resigns. It would not be in the state of Ohio or the Republican Party’s interest to keep the Senate seat vacant for long.

Therefore, it’s very possible we will see a joint announcement when Vance resigns, which includes the vice president-elect officially leaving the Senate and the introduction of the interim replacement.

Texas Senate Seat Questions; Florida House Special Elections Set; Arkansas Redistricting Commission Filed

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Dec. 9, 2024

Senate

Tarrant County Republican Party chairman Bo French

Texas: Potential Challenger Issues Statement — There have been political rumors in Texas for some time that Attorney General Ken Paxton is planning to challenge Sen. John Cornyn in the 2026 Republican primary, and now another individual is coming forward to confirm he is considering entering the next US Senate campaign.

Tarrant County Republican Party chairman Bo French, a MAGA activist, released a statement indicating he is considering becoming a Senate candidate. While he was running for Majority Leader, Sen. Cornyn stated he would run for a fifth term. It remains to be seen, however, if he will follow through with that statement now that he is not in the leadership.

House

FL-1: Special Election Field Set — Candidate filing has closed for the two Florida special congressional elections with primaries scheduled for Jan. 28. President-Elect Donald Trump and Sen. Rick Scott (R) have endorsed Florida Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Petronis. Upon seeing the move from the national leaders, two potentially strong contenders, state Rep. Michelle Salzman (R-Pensacola) and wealthy businessman Keith Gross, exited the race and endorsed Petronis. Even so, 10 others remain.

Though the field remains large, the top combatants are Petronis and state Rep. Joel Rudman (R-Navarre). The size of the GOP field suggests that we will see a plurality nominee advance into the April 1 special general election. One Democrat, athletic trainer Gay Valimont, and an Independent candidate also filed.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates FL-1 as R+38, which makes the northwestern panhandle seat Florida’s safest Republican domain. Therefore, the winner of the Jan. 28 GOP primary will win the seat outright on April 1.

FL-6: Sen. Randy Fine (R) in Driver’s Seat for Special Election — While 11 Republican candidates filed in the 1st District special election, we see only one other Republican do so in the Atlantic coastal 6th District after President-Elect Trump and Sen. Scott publicly endorsed state Sen. Randy Fine (R-Melbourne). The individual also is a MAGA activist — Aaron Baker. Sen. Fine appears to be a lock for the GOP nomination.

Three Democrats, a Libertarian Party nominee, and an Independent have filed. It appears Sen. Fine has won this seat once candidate filing closed. The Independent candidate is Randall Terry, a well-known pro-life activist who was the 2024 American Constitution Party presidential nominee and lives in Tennessee.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+28, so neither vacant Florida seat appears vulnerable to a Democratic conversion.

Redistricting

Arkansas: Redistricting Commission Filed — According to the Redistricting Network organization, state Sen. Bryan King (R-Green Forrest) has filed a bill to create a redistricting commission to draw future district boundaries at all levels of government. This measure would create a nine member commission where the governor, state attorney general, and the secretary of state would appoint those serving.

The move is a strange one considering that Republicans have trifecta control of the governor’s mansion, the state Senate and state House of Representatives. From the current map, the Republicans hold a 4-0 advantage in the congressional delegation, a 29-6 division in the state Senate, and 82-18 in the state House. The chances for passage in this legislative session appear slim at the outset.

Primary Challenge to Louisiana Sen. Cassidy; New Jersey Sen. Helmy to Resign; Gray Wins CA-13; Detroit Mayor Duggan Announces for Gov.

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Dec. 6, 2024

Senate

Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA)

Louisiana: Primary Challenge to Sen. Cassidy Continues to Brew — Earlier, we noted that outgoing Public Service Commissioner Eric Skrmetta is considering launching a 2026 partisan primary challenge to Sen. Bill Cassidy (R), and now state treasurer and former Congressman John Fleming (R) announced he will challenge the senator. Outgoing Congressman Garret Graves (R-Baton Rouge), who was the Republican casualty under the state’s new congressional redistricting map, is also mentioned as a possible candidate. Another who is confirming preliminary Senate race interest is Rep. Clay Higgins (R-Lafayette) who just won a fifth US House term with 71 percent of the vote.

The Louisiana political situation will be different in 2026 because the state is moving away from the top-two jungle primary system for some offices and returning to the partisan primary procedure that most states use. Under the new legislation, races for the US Senate, US House, state school board, Public Service Commission, and state Supreme Court Justices will go to a partisan primary.

The Louisiana Secretary of State has already released a schedule for the new election calendar. The partisan primaries will be held on April 18, 2026. If no candidate receives majority support, a runoff between the top two finishers will be held on May 30, 2026.

New Jersey: Sen. Helmy to Resign — New Jersey caretaker Sen. George Helmy (D), who Gov. Phil Murphy (D) appointed to replace resigned Sen. Bob Menendez (D) on an interim basis, announced that he will resign on Sunday. Sen. Helmy is doing so to allow Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown), who won the general election on Nov. 5, to begin his Senate career early as Gov. Murphy will appoint him to replace Helmy. There are likely to be important lame-duck session votes in the Senate later this month for which Sen-Elect Kim will now participate.

House

CA-13: Gray Wins — Weeks after the election, we finally have all 435 congressional races decided. In northern California’s 13th District, we now see former state Assemblyman Adam Gray (D) defeating freshman Rep. John Duarte (R-Modesto) by just 187 votes. There will be no recount. Rep. Duarte will not contest the outcome, and so the closest race in the country draws to a close. Duarte says he hopes to continue serving the public in other ways and is open to again running for Congress. Therefore, we could see a third race between these two in 2026.

The Gray win means the House will divide at 220 Republicans and 215 Democrats, an overall one-seat gain for Democrats from the current Congress. The margin will drop to 217-215 with Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) having already resigned from the House and Reps. Mike Waltz (R-FL) and Elise Stefanik (R-NY) soon to be headed into Trump Administration positions. It is likely the House will remain in the 217-215 mode until early April since the special elections for the two Florida seats will occur on April 1.

Governor

Michigan: Mayor Duggan Announces for Governor — Michigan will host one of 15 open governor’s races next year because the incumbents are term-limited, so candidates are already beginning to make moves. Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan, who switched from the Democratic Party to Independent status earlier this year, is serving his third term having been originally elected at the end of 2013. As of this week, so far the mayor has become the first individual to announce that he will run as an Independent for governor next year.

Duggan is viewed as an effective mayor for a city that had major problems when he assumed office. Coming from the state’s largest municipality, his Independent candidacy could become serious. This means we could see a very interesting three-way Michigan gubernatorial campaign in 2026. Certainly, both the Democrats and Republicans will field their own candidates, so we will likely see a winner crowned with only a plurality victory margin.

Collins vs. Mills in Maine? Potential Senate Challenger to Lindsey Graham; Lara Trump Destroys Sen. Tillis in New Poll; Tenn. Gov Race

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Dec. 5, 2024

Senate

Maine Sen. Susan Collins (R)

Maine: Collins vs. Mills? — Maine Gov. Janet Mills (D) did not close the door on a 2026 challenge to Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) when asked about the possibility late last week, but other comments and circumstances suggest that she is unlikely to launch such a campaign. In any event, expect the Democrats to field a strong candidate against Sen. Collins even if they fail to entice Gov. Mills into running.

As an aside, the governor was actually laudatory in a comment about Sen. Collins becoming the chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee. Gov. Mills stated that she is “pleased” Collins will have her new position and termed it as “an asset for the State of Maine.” These are not quite the comments one might expect from a future political opponent.

South Carolina: Potential Challenger to Sen. Graham — Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill), who in November was just re-elected to his fifth term in the US House, is confirming reports that he is considering a Republican primary challenge to Sen. Lindsey Graham or entering what will be an open race for governor. In the latter race, incumbent Henry McMaster (R) is ineligible to seek a third full term.

Both races would be considered uphill. While Rep. Norman is more conservative than Sen. Graham, the latter man has a strong relationship with President-Elect Donald Trump. Therefore, what might normally be considered a Trump endorsement for Norman may not materialize in this case. For governor, the potential leading candidate is two-term Attorney General Alan Wilson (R), son of veteran Congressman Joe Wilson (R-Springdale). Another reported potential gubernatorial candidate is Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston).

North Carolina: Lara Trump Destroys Sen. Tillis in New Poll — The Victory Insights data organization surveyed the North Carolina electorate about the upcoming 2026 US Senate race, and a Republican primary battle between Sen. Thom Tillis and Republican National Committee Co-Chair Lara Trump would break decidedly toward the challenger. In the general election, both Sen. Tillis and Lara Trump would each trail outgoing Gov. Roy Cooper (D) by one percentage point according to the VI data.

Victory Insights (Nov. 26-27 & 29; 800 registered North Carolina voters; interactive voice response system & text) finds that among an undisclosed sample of Republican primary voters, Trump, a native of North Carolina, would easily defeat Sen. Tillis in the GOP primary by a whopping 64-11 percent count. At this point, there is no indication that she would run, but this poll is certainly a warning sign for Sen. Tillis.

Governor

Tennessee: Rep. Burchett Considering Gov Race — Tennessee Gov. Bill Lee (R) is another of the state chief executives who is ineligible to seek re-election, thereby the Volunteer State will also feature an open governor’s campaign. Even before the 2024 election, Rep. John Rose (R-Cookeville) made clear his intention to run for governor. Now, Rep. Tim Burchett (R-Knoxville) is also confirming that he, too, is considering a run for the state’s top job.

We are sure to see crowded open seat gubernatorial primaries in both parties around the country in 2026. It already appears that Tennessee will certainly feature a hot contest to succeed Gov. Lee.

One More Race to Go; Miller-Meeks Clinches Victory; Rep. Seth Moulton Under Fire; Alaska Ranked Choice Vote Recount Ordered

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Dec. 4, 2024

House

California Assemblyman Adam Gray

CA-13: Race Down to 143 Votes — The agonizingly slow vote counting process in northern California’s 13th Congressional District continues to produce new totals. Now, Rep. John Duarte (R-Modesto) has rebounded slightly and trails former state Assemblyman Adam Gray (D) by just 143 votes. Officials continue to add votes to the aggregate, so it is difficult to say when this contest will be ruled final.

It is now likely, however, that Gray will hold the lead and convert the seat to the Democratic column. It is also probable that should the margin remain this small that a recount will soon follow. If Gray wins, the final House count will be 220R – 215D in a full chamber. When the three Republican vacancies open due to Trump Administration appointments and resignation, the count will drop to 217-215.

IA-1: Rep. Miller-Meeks (R) Clinches Victory — The recount in Iowa’s 1st Congressional District is now complete and the final result ended as expected. Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-LeClaire) has now officially won a third term. The recount, requested by opponent Christina Bohannan (D), changed the original vote total by just four votes. Instead of Miller-Meeks winning by 802 votes, the official total will now be adjusted to a 798-vote margin. Interestingly, this is not the closest election of the congresswoman’s career. Her initial victory spread in 2020 was only six votes, so this 798 vote win is a landslide in comparison.

MA-6: Rep. Moulton’s (D) Potential Primary — Massachusetts Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Salem) has been under fire from the far left of his party over comments he made criticizing the practice of allowing biological males to participate in female athletics. The firestorm has caused a possible 2026 Democratic primary opponent to come forward.

Dan Koh, who was chief of staff to former Boston mayor and US Labor Secretary Marty Walsh (D), lost a 3rd District Democratic primary by just 145 votes in 2018 (to current Rep. Lori Trahan) but then rebounded to win a town supervisors race in the Andover locality. Koh was quoted saying he is considering launching a Democratic primary challenge to Rep. Moulton in 2026.

Moulton was first elected in 2014 when he defeated then-Congressman John Tierney in the Democratic primary. He has easily been renominated and re-elected in every succeeding election. In the 2024 cycle, Rep. Moulton faced only write-in candidates in both his primary and general election campaigns. The congressman will be favored in the next election regardless of who opposes him.

States

Alaska: Ranked Choice Recount Ordered — Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom (R), who is Alaska’s chief elections officer, has indicated that she will order a recount for the very tight Ranked Choice Voting repeal ballot initiative. By just 664 votes, a small majority of the electorate fought back an effort to squelch the state’s Top Four/Ranked Choice Voting primary system that was adopted in 2020.

A total of 320,574 ballots were cast in the election and the vote opposing repeal was 50.1 percent while those favoring repeal recorded 49.9 percent. The vote total is close enough where the recount could conceivably change the outcome.

Improvement Everywhere

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Dec. 3, 2024

2024 Election

President-Elect Donald Trump / Photo by Gage Skidmore

With more 2024 election numbers becoming final and certified, we can begin to see that interesting patterns are developing, some of which were pervasive.

We have already seen many articles based upon exit polls showing that minority voters in the African-American, Hispanic, and Asian communities as well as younger citizens produced greater support for President-Elect Donald Trump than what past Republican candidates drew. He also gained more support from voters on the lower end of the economic scale and those without a college degree. The individual state totals, however, suggest his win was even more significant.

Whether the 2024 election proves to be the beginning of an American political realignment remains to be seen, but it does appear the Republicans now have an opportunity to create a more long-lasting, upward support trend with groups that, heretofore, comprised the Democratic Party’s strongest base vote.

Realignments typically have occurred in 40-50 year increments. Thus, the timing may be consistent with another realignment forming. Going back to the 1976 presidential election between Jimmy Carter and then-President Gerald Ford, we see the country has almost flipped. Of the 23 states that Carter carried in ’76, Kamala Harris won in only seven 48 years later. Conversely, Harris took a dozen states that Ford won. On the other hand, Trump won 16 states that Carter won, and 15 that Ford claimed.

The most sweeping change, however, comes in comparing Trump’s 2024 performance to his previous presidential runs.

When looking at his 2020 totals in comparison to 2024, we see that Trump improved his support percentage in all 51 voting entities. Calculating his percentage totals, we see that his support jumped to a mean average increase of 2.3 percentage points with a median of 1.9 percent. His high gain was in New York where he posted 5.7 percentage points over his 2020 total. His low was gaining only 0.2 percent in Washington.

Conversely, Kamala Harris performed badly in comparison to Joe Biden’s winning 2020 campaign. She underperformed Biden’s totals in 50 of the 51 voting entities, scoring a positive gain of just 0.2 percent over the president’s total in Utah. Even in her home state of California where the electorate three times elected her to statewide office, she finished 4.9 percent below Biden’s total even though she carried the state with 58.6 percent of the vote. It was her sixth-best performing state in the country. (District of Columbia, Vermont, Maryland, Massachusetts, and Hawaii were better Harris performers than California.)

Comparing the Trump and Harris increase/decrease totals, we see that the largest net swing (subtracting Harris decrease vis-a-vis Biden from Trump’s 2020 to 2024 increase total) occurred in New York where Trump gained 5.7 points over his 2020 performance and Harris dropped 5.7 from Biden’s 2020 total. Therefore, the net swing in Trump’s favor was 11 percentage points. The next two largest swings occurred in New Jersey (10 percentage points), and Florida (9.8 percent).

Looking at Trump’s 2016 performance in comparison to 2024, we see his former total beat his current total in only one state, Georgia, and by only .1 percent. His 2024 percentage of 43.2 equaled his 2016 performance in Colorado.

Interestingly, while Trump recaptured Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin in 2024 after winning them in 2016 but losing all five in 2020, his support percentage was actually higher in losing (2020) than in winning (2016) in four of the five states. Only in Georgia was his winning 2016 percentage higher than his 2020 losing percentage.

Harris, on the other hand, did outperform Hillary Clinton’s 2016 total in 36 states with her largest increase margin being 10.3 percentage points in Utah.

Though this is not the “greatest landslide in Republican history,” as Trump claims (both of Ronald Reagan’s wins in 1980 and 1984 were bigger victories), the 2024 election is proving to be a very significant Republican win and one that could set the trend for future election cycles.